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000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH BEST JET LIFT NOW TO THE EAST...THREAT OF FLURRIES SHOULD BE
RELEGATED WELL N&W OF NYC TONIGHT...WITH APPROACHING BUT SHEARING
SHORTWAVE AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
IT...WILL HANG ON TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH
BRIEF WINDOWS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
MID MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
DURING THE DAY WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DON`T CHANGE ALL THAT
MUCH...SO HIGHS PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS THEN DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
TURNING CLEAR AND REMAINING COLD AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS 10-15
IN THE CITY WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SUBURBS. SOME NORTHERN
SUBURBS COULD SEE BELOW ZERO LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN
WITH A SPLIT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES SAT INTO SUN. A NORTHERN BRANCH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF
THEN SENDS A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE...AND THEN ANOTHER
SLOWER MID WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIMING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GGEM MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE GFS.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. SAT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STILL ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN REESTABLISHING A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD MEAN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.

AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEMS...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER GFS AND
GGEM. THE MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO START AS SNOW TUE AFT/EVE...
THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FRONTAL WAVES TO IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PD...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND THE NYC METRO TOWARD DAYBREAK. N WINDS 5-10 KT
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AT MOST SITES
BY LATE EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 5-10 KT KT DURING THE DAY
ON FRI AND SHIFT NW BY AFTERNOON...STAYING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 12Z-16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...

.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.

.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON MORNING...SNOW LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
IFR CONDS.

.MON AFTERNOON-TUE AFTERNOON...VFR.

.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. SNOW IN THE EVENING...
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF/KHPN/KBDR...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS
AND KISP.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP CREATE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
KEEP SEAS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS...COULD STILL GUSTS OVER 25 KT. SCA CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT AS A GENERAL SCA VS A SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE REST OF THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUB-
SCA CONDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH BEST JET LIFT NOW TO THE EAST...THREAT OF FLURRIES SHOULD BE
RELEGATED WELL N&W OF NYC TONIGHT...WITH APPROACHING BUT SHEARING
SHORTWAVE AXIS.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
IT...WILL HANG ON TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH
BRIEF WINDOWS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
MID MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
DURING THE DAY WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DON`T CHANGE ALL THAT
MUCH...SO HIGHS PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS THEN DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
TURNING CLEAR AND REMAINING COLD AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS 10-15
IN THE CITY WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SUBURBS. SOME NORTHERN
SUBURBS COULD SEE BELOW ZERO LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN
WITH A SPLIT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES SAT INTO SUN. A NORTHERN BRANCH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF
THEN SENDS A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE...AND THEN ANOTHER
SLOWER MID WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIMING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GGEM MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE GFS.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. SAT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STILL ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN REESTABLISHING A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD MEAN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.

AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEMS...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER GFS AND
GGEM. THE MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO START AS SNOW TUE AFT/EVE...
THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FRONTAL WAVES TO IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PD...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND THE NYC METRO TOWARD DAYBREAK. N WINDS 5-10 KT
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AT MOST SITES
BY LATE EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 5-10 KT KT DURING THE DAY
ON FRI AND SHIFT NW BY AFTERNOON...STAYING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 12Z-16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...

.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.

.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON MORNING...SNOW LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
IFR CONDS.

.MON AFTERNOON-TUE AFTERNOON...VFR.

.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. SNOW IN THE EVENING...
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF/KHPN/KBDR...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS
AND KISP.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP CREATE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
KEEP SEAS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS...COULD STILL GUSTS OVER 25 KT. SCA CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT AS A GENERAL SCA VS A SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE REST OF THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUB-
SCA CONDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW








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000
FXUS61 KALY 270002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND PASSING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED HERE
FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN
VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES SHOULD
STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND PASSING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED HERE
FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN
VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES SHOULD
STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 262356
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

450 PM UPDATE...

* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND
RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK
SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262356
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS
LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

450 PM UPDATE...

* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND
RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK
SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
450 PM UPDATE...

* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR E MA COAST EARLY
* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND
RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK
SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS SE MA BEFORE 21Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W TO E. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
BECOME VFR THROUGH 00Z...EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 04Z ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF FLURRY BEFORE 23Z...
OTHERWISE VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
450 PM UPDATE...

* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR E MA COAST EARLY
* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND
RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK
SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS SE MA BEFORE 21Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W TO E. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
BECOME VFR THROUGH 00Z...EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 04Z ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF FLURRY BEFORE 23Z...
OTHERWISE VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 262127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW
FLOW WILL MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND
PASSING NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE
INCLUDED HERE FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE
GEORGE REGION/SRN VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TRI CITIES SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 262127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW
FLOW WILL MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND
PASSING NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE
INCLUDED HERE FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE
GEORGE REGION/SRN VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TRI CITIES SHOULD STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 262057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HANG ON TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
MID MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
DURING THE DAY WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DON`T CHANGE ALL THAT
MUCH...SO HIGHS PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS THEN DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
TURNING CLEAR AND REMAINING COLD AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS 10-15
IN THE CITY WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SUBURBS. SOME NORTHERN
SUBURBS COULD SEE BELOW ZERO LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN
WITH A SPLIT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES SAT INTO SUN. A NORTHERN BRANCH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF
THEN SENDS A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE...AND THEN ANOTHER
SLOWER MID WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIMING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GGEM MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE GFS.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. SAT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STILL ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN REESTABLISHING A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD MEAN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.

AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEMS...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER GFS AND
GGEM. THE MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO START AS SNOW TUE AFT/EVE...
THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FRONTAL WAVES TO IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KLGA THROUGH AROUND 22Z...IT SHOULD BE
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT
OUT OF THE N-NW BY MID-LATE MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 360-040 TRUE
(010-050 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-050 TRUE
(350-060 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN. SE-S WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN...A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN S
AND -SN TO A WINTRY MIX N. LLWS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP CREATE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
KEEP SEAS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS...COULD STILL GUSTS OVER 25 KT. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT AS A GENERAL SCA VS A SCA FOR HAZ
SEAS. THE REST OF THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUB-SCA CONDS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HANG ON TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
MID MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
DURING THE DAY WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DON`T CHANGE ALL THAT
MUCH...SO HIGHS PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS THEN DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
TURNING CLEAR AND REMAINING COLD AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS 10-15
IN THE CITY WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SUBURBS. SOME NORTHERN
SUBURBS COULD SEE BELOW ZERO LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN
WITH A SPLIT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES SAT INTO SUN. A NORTHERN BRANCH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF
THEN SENDS A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE...AND THEN ANOTHER
SLOWER MID WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIMING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GGEM MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE GFS.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. SAT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STILL ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN REESTABLISHING A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD MEAN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.

AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEMS...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER GFS AND
GGEM. THE MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO START AS SNOW TUE AFT/EVE...
THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FRONTAL WAVES TO IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KLGA THROUGH AROUND 22Z...IT SHOULD BE
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT
OUT OF THE N-NW BY MID-LATE MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 360-040 TRUE
(010-050 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-050 TRUE
(350-060 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN. SE-S WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN...A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN S
AND -SN TO A WINTRY MIX N. LLWS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP CREATE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
KEEP SEAS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS...COULD STILL GUSTS OVER 25 KT. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT AS A GENERAL SCA VS A SCA FOR HAZ
SEAS. THE REST OF THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUB-SCA CONDS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KBOX 261948
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
248 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...

* LIGHT SNOW ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SE AND
SHOULD END ACROSS SE MA BY 4 OR 5 PM. SO FAR SEEING LOTS OF
REPORTS OF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...MAINLY IN RI AND SE
MA. AS OF 230 PM RECEIVED REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM NANTUCKET. AS
N/NE FLOW PERSISTS WE MAY SEE FLURRIES LINGER NEAR E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE/ISLANDS.

MEANWHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM. SOME QUESTION
TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND RESULTS IN CLEARING
SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK SOME
CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS SE MA BEFORE 21Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W TO E. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
BECOME VFR THROUGH 00Z...EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 04Z ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF FLURRY BEFORE 23Z...
OTHERWISE VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261948
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
248 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...

* LIGHT SNOW ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
* QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT

BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SE AND
SHOULD END ACROSS SE MA BY 4 OR 5 PM. SO FAR SEEING LOTS OF
REPORTS OF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...MAINLY IN RI AND SE
MA. AS OF 230 PM RECEIVED REPORT OF 2 INCHES FROM NANTUCKET. AS
N/NE FLOW PERSISTS WE MAY SEE FLURRIES LINGER NEAR E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE/ISLANDS.

MEANWHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM. SOME QUESTION
TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND RESULTS IN CLEARING
SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK SOME
CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS
INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON.

RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE
LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.  THEN NEXT WEEK
THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  THEN IT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.  WITH
THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE
SYSTEM IS.  ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE
NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER
SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS SE MA BEFORE 21Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W TO E. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
BECOME VFR THROUGH 00Z...EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 04Z ON
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEF FLURRY BEFORE 23Z...
OTHERWISE VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT
SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT IS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT FROM
THE DEPARTING OCEANIC CYCLONE.

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND L20S
WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MTNS. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NY...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY WESTWARD. A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
HERE FOR THE LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT IS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT FROM
THE DEPARTING OCEANIC CYCLONE.

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND L20S
WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MTNS. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NY...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY WESTWARD. A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
HERE FOR THE LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT IS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT FROM
THE DEPARTING OCEANIC CYCLONE.

IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND L20S
WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MTNS. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NY...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY WESTWARD. A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
HERE FOR THE LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT KPOU WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
22Z AT THAT SITE ONLY THROUGH 22Z. FURTHER NORTH...SOME LIGHTER
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS (VCSH) MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT...IFR
APPEARS UNLIKELY (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE).

SURFACE WIND WILL BE 5-10KTS OUT OF THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER VFR CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE BASES COULD BUILD
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE THEY WOULD BUILD-
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE.

THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
(VCSH) BUT NO REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z DUE TO
LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL INSTABILITY STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE 3500-4000 FOOT RANGE (ONLY SCT AT KPOU). THE WIND WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261752
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR 700 MB PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...LIGHT SNOW ENDED UP FALLING OVER THESE AREAS.
OVER LONG ISLAND...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE HAS ACTUALLY PRODUCED A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. IT
APPEARS AS IF CLOUDS WILL INCREASE HERE SOMEWHAT BY LATE...AND EVEN
A FLURRY OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST END. OUTSIDE LONG
ISLAND...FLURRIES/SCT FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH
19 TO MAYBE 20Z...IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10000
FT.

N-NE WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT
OUT OF THE N-NW BY MID-LATE MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE IFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VARYING CONDITIONS WITH
-SN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT AND VERY LOW CHANCE
MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH -RA S TERMINALS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN. SE-S WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN
S...-SN TO A WINTRY MIX N. LLWS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...COMING CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR
TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 261752
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR 700 MB PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...LIGHT SNOW ENDED UP FALLING OVER THESE AREAS.
OVER LONG ISLAND...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE HAS ACTUALLY PRODUCED A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. IT
APPEARS AS IF CLOUDS WILL INCREASE HERE SOMEWHAT BY LATE...AND EVEN
A FLURRY OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST END. OUTSIDE LONG
ISLAND...FLURRIES/SCT FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH
19 TO MAYBE 20Z...IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10000
FT.

N-NE WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT
OUT OF THE N-NW BY MID-LATE MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE IFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VARYING CONDITIONS WITH
-SN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT AND VERY LOW CHANCE
MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH -RA S TERMINALS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN. SE-S WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN
S...-SN TO A WINTRY MIX N. LLWS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...COMING CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR
TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261752
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR 700 MB PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...LIGHT SNOW ENDED UP FALLING OVER THESE AREAS.
OVER LONG ISLAND...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE HAS ACTUALLY PRODUCED A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. IT
APPEARS AS IF CLOUDS WILL INCREASE HERE SOMEWHAT BY LATE...AND EVEN
A FLURRY OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST END. OUTSIDE LONG
ISLAND...FLURRIES/SCT FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH
19 TO MAYBE 20Z...IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10000
FT.

N-NE WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT
OUT OF THE N-NW BY MID-LATE MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE IFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VARYING CONDITIONS WITH
-SN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT AND VERY LOW CHANCE
MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH -RA S TERMINALS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN. SE-S WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN
S...-SN TO A WINTRY MIX N. LLWS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...COMING CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR
TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261729
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1229 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA WILL BRING A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MANY PLACES EXPECTED TO GET A DUSTING OF SNOW.

STILL SEEING HIGHER RETURNS ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE AS MUCH AS A
COUPLE OF INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR HIGHEST TOTALS /2 TO 3 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO
BE ON CAPE COD...VINEYARD AND ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET BUT BANDED
NATURE OF SNOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DESPITE
DECENT SNOW GROWTH SIGNATURE THERE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT AS WELL ALONG PARTS OF E MA COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN TEENS/20S THROUGH AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
NEAR 30 ON OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY DUE TO VSBY...EXCEPT ACROSS RI/SE MA AND
ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z...BUT FLURRIES WILL
PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS SE MA UNTIL 03Z OR SO.

VFR LATER TONIGHT AND FRI WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. VFR FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN 18Z TAF...BUT NOT CONFIDENT LIGHT SNOW WILL
COMPLETELY END UNTIL 23Z. AIRPORT ACCUM UP TO 1 INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN 18Z TAF...BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 20Z.
AIRPORT ACCUM LESS THAN 1 INCH.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261729
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1229 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA WILL BRING A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN
INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MANY PLACES EXPECTED TO GET A DUSTING OF SNOW.

STILL SEEING HIGHER RETURNS ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE AS MUCH AS A
COUPLE OF INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR HIGHEST TOTALS /2 TO 3 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO
BE ON CAPE COD...VINEYARD AND ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET BUT BANDED
NATURE OF SNOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DESPITE
DECENT SNOW GROWTH SIGNATURE THERE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT AS WELL ALONG PARTS OF E MA COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN TEENS/20S THROUGH AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
NEAR 30 ON OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY DUE TO VSBY...EXCEPT ACROSS RI/SE MA AND
ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z...BUT FLURRIES WILL
PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS SE MA UNTIL 03Z OR SO.

VFR LATER TONIGHT AND FRI WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. VFR FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN 18Z TAF...BUT NOT CONFIDENT LIGHT SNOW WILL
COMPLETELY END UNTIL 23Z. AIRPORT ACCUM UP TO 1 INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN 18Z TAF...BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 20Z.
AIRPORT ACCUM LESS THAN 1 INCH.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261649
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1045 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE AS A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE. THIS BAND APPEARS NOT TO BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD SO CONFINED CATEGORICAL POPS (75 PERIODS OF SNOW) TO THIS
AREA WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE...WITH
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.


THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AREAS OUTSIDE WHERE THE SNOW
WAS ACTUALLY FALLING. WE CONTINUE THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BRIEF IFR AT KPOU AS A
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FORMED THERE...BUT LOOKS TO BE
PULLING BACK SOUTH. SHOULD NOT LAST MUCH PAST NOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME PERIOD AND ALL OTHER
TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY 10 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS PF 1045 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE AS A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE. THIS BAND APPEARS NOT TO BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD SO CONFINED CATEGORICAL POPS (75 PERIODS OF SNOW) TO THIS
AREA WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE...WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS
SUPPLIED CLOUDS. SNOW WAS NOW FALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AREAS BUT NONE FURTHER NORTH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AREAS OUTSIDE WHERE THE SNOW
WAS ACTUALLY FALLING. WE CONTINUE THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS PF 1045 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE AS A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE. THIS BAND APPEARS NOT TO BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD SO CONFINED CATEGORICAL POPS (75 PERIODS OF SNOW) TO THIS
AREA WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE...WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS
SUPPLIED CLOUDS. SNOW WAS NOW FALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AREAS BUT NONE FURTHER NORTH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AREAS OUTSIDE WHERE THE SNOW
WAS ACTUALLY FALLING. WE CONTINUE THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS PF 1045 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE AS A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
JUST SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE. THIS BAND APPEARS NOT TO BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD SO CONFINED CATEGORICAL POPS (75 PERIODS OF SNOW) TO THIS
AREA WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE...WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS
SUPPLIED CLOUDS. SNOW WAS NOW FALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY AREAS BUT NONE FURTHER NORTH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AREAS OUTSIDE WHERE THE SNOW
WAS ACTUALLY FALLING. WE CONTINUE THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261509
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

10 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR...BUT STILL MOSTLY ALOFT
DUE TO PRESENCE OF VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS INDICATED
BY CHH/OKX SOUNDINGS. MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN WILL ERODE THIS
DRY LAYER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION BY MIDDAY FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND NEAR THE COAST.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE OVER CAPE COD AND POSSIBLY INTO SE PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES AT ACK WHERE DECENT OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WEST OF THE CANAL EXPECTING A
COATING TO AN INCH NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT NEAR 30 ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261509
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

10 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR...BUT STILL MOSTLY ALOFT
DUE TO PRESENCE OF VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS INDICATED
BY CHH/OKX SOUNDINGS. MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN WILL ERODE THIS
DRY LAYER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION BY MIDDAY FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND NEAR THE COAST.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE OVER CAPE COD AND POSSIBLY INTO SE PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES AT ACK WHERE DECENT OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WEST OF THE CANAL EXPECTING A
COATING TO AN INCH NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT NEAR 30 ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261509
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

10 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR...BUT STILL MOSTLY ALOFT
DUE TO PRESENCE OF VERY DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS INDICATED
BY CHH/OKX SOUNDINGS. MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN WILL ERODE THIS
DRY LAYER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION BY MIDDAY FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND NEAR THE COAST.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE OVER CAPE COD AND POSSIBLY INTO SE PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES AT ACK WHERE DECENT OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WEST OF THE CANAL EXPECTING A
COATING TO AN INCH NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT NEAR 30 ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC/FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261451
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB
LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY
IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS SUPPLIED CLOUDS. RADARS INDICATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTH BUT SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SNOW
FALLING UNTIL ONE GOES DOWN TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THERE IS JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

THEREFORE...VERY FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE
HOURLY GRIDS...ADDED A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...COLD FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.


WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD/T BE SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS
IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261451
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB
LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY
IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS SUPPLIED CLOUDS. RADARS INDICATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTH BUT SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SNOW
FALLING UNTIL ONE GOES DOWN TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THERE IS JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

THEREFORE...VERY FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE
HOURLY GRIDS...ADDED A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...COLD FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.


WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD/T BE SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS
IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261451
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EST...A 999 MB
LOW WAS SITTING OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS...TRACING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. WHILE IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY
IMPACT US...INDIRECTLY IT HAS SUPPLIED CLOUDS. RADARS INDICATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTH BUT SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SNOW
FALLING UNTIL ONE GOES DOWN TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THERE IS JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WAS ACTUALLY MORE THE RESULT OF A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH...LINING UP WITH THE MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE JUST ENOUGH TO PULL THE CLOUDS. ANY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL...MAYBE A DUSTING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.

THEREFORE...VERY FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE
HOURLY GRIDS...ADDED A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...COLD FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.


WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD/T BE SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS
IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...THE VERY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY
FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE SKY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18 DEGREE
C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
SHIFTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS HAVING TROUBLE MOISTENING UP AS EVIDENCED
BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW FOR THE
PAST FEW RUNS THAT MOST OF WHAT REACHES THE SURFACE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHC NW TO CHC SE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REMOVED TEMPO FOR -SN FROM ALL BUT
KISP AND KJFK...AND RAISED THOSE TO VFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...COULD REMOVE THOSE IN FUTURE TAFS. CEILINGS GENERALLY 5-9
THOUSAND FEET THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC








000
FXUS61 KOKX 261441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
SHIFTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS HAVING TROUBLE MOISTENING UP AS EVIDENCED
BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW FOR THE
PAST FEW RUNS THAT MOST OF WHAT REACHES THE SURFACE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHC NW TO CHC SE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REMOVED TEMPO FOR -SN FROM ALL BUT
KISP AND KJFK...AND RAISED THOSE TO VFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...COULD REMOVE THOSE IN FUTURE TAFS. CEILINGS GENERALLY 5-9
THOUSAND FEET THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 261441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
SHIFTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS HAVING TROUBLE MOISTENING UP AS EVIDENCED
BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW FOR THE
PAST FEW RUNS THAT MOST OF WHAT REACHES THE SURFACE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHC NW TO CHC SE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REMOVED TEMPO FOR -SN FROM ALL BUT
KISP AND KJFK...AND RAISED THOSE TO VFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...COULD REMOVE THOSE IN FUTURE TAFS. CEILINGS GENERALLY 5-9
THOUSAND FEET THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 261441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
SHIFTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS HAVING TROUBLE MOISTENING UP AS EVIDENCED
BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW FOR THE
PAST FEW RUNS THAT MOST OF WHAT REACHES THE SURFACE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHC NW TO CHC SE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REMOVED TEMPO FOR -SN FROM ALL BUT
KISP AND KJFK...AND RAISED THOSE TO VFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...COULD REMOVE THOSE IN FUTURE TAFS. CEILINGS GENERALLY 5-9
THOUSAND FEET THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 261441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
SHIFTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS HAVING TROUBLE MOISTENING UP AS EVIDENCED
BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW FOR THE
PAST FEW RUNS THAT MOST OF WHAT REACHES THE SURFACE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHC NW TO CHC SE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REMOVED TEMPO FOR -SN FROM ALL BUT
KISP AND KJFK...AND RAISED THOSE TO VFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...COULD REMOVE THOSE IN FUTURE TAFS. CEILINGS GENERALLY 5-9
THOUSAND FEET THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC









000
FXUS61 KBOX 261200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE ALREADY NOTING RETURNS ON KBOX THIS MORNING MAINLY
70+ NM AWAY FROM THE RADAR SO THEY ARE WELL ALOFT...MOST OF THESE
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON OBS IN BOTH OKX
AND ALY CWA. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS THIS
MORNING...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE THESE GRADUALLY FILL AND INCREASE IN
RETURN LVL ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE S COAST. LOOKS LIKE FIRST FLAKES
REACH THE GROUND MAYBE AS FLURRIES EVEN IN THE N BY MID DAY...WITH
THE STEADIER SNOW FOR THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY SE MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMS FROM CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD BASED ON
THIS MORNING/S MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SO NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THAT TO OCCUR HERE.
NONETHELESS...A FEW DIFFERENT PROCESSES WILL COMBINED TO BRING US A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FIRST...ENOUGH WEAK BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
IS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.  THE SECOND PROCESS IS COLD NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  TEMPS AT THE
INVERSION LAYER ARE AROUND -12C...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE OCEAN FOR THE FORMATION OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE THIRD PROCESS IS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THAT MAY CLIP THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
STRONGER LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

AS FOR ACCUMS...LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE FROM
PLYMOUTH COUNTY ONTO THE CAPE FROM BOTH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.  ACROSS NANTUCKET
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
GETTING GRAZED BY STRONGER FORCING.  EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE ISLAND.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH THE INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  WHILE THIS IS
NOT A BIG PLAYER FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF INTENSITY IS LIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MELTING ON ROADWAYS DESPITE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.  NONETHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS THERE IS
CERTAINLY THIS RISK FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY ABOUT MID DAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREIF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE ALREADY NOTING RETURNS ON KBOX THIS MORNING MAINLY
70+ NM AWAY FROM THE RADAR SO THEY ARE WELL ALOFT...MOST OF THESE
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON OBS IN BOTH OKX
AND ALY CWA. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS THIS
MORNING...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE THESE GRADUALLY FILL AND INCREASE IN
RETURN LVL ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE S COAST. LOOKS LIKE FIRST FLAKES
REACH THE GROUND MAYBE AS FLURRIES EVEN IN THE N BY MID DAY...WITH
THE STEADIER SNOW FOR THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY SE MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMS FROM CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD BASED ON
THIS MORNING/S MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SO NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THAT TO OCCUR HERE.
NONETHELESS...A FEW DIFFERENT PROCESSES WILL COMBINED TO BRING US A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FIRST...ENOUGH WEAK BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
IS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.  THE SECOND PROCESS IS COLD NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  TEMPS AT THE
INVERSION LAYER ARE AROUND -12C...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE OCEAN FOR THE FORMATION OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE THIRD PROCESS IS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THAT MAY CLIP THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
STRONGER LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

AS FOR ACCUMS...LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE FROM
PLYMOUTH COUNTY ONTO THE CAPE FROM BOTH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.  ACROSS NANTUCKET
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
GETTING GRAZED BY STRONGER FORCING.  EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE ISLAND.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH THE INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  WHILE THIS IS
NOT A BIG PLAYER FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF INTENSITY IS LIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MELTING ON ROADWAYS DESPITE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.  NONETHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS THERE IS
CERTAINLY THIS RISK FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY ABOUT MID DAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREIF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE ALREADY NOTING RETURNS ON KBOX THIS MORNING MAINLY
70+ NM AWAY FROM THE RADAR SO THEY ARE WELL ALOFT...MOST OF THESE
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON OBS IN BOTH OKX
AND ALY CWA. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS THIS
MORNING...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE THESE GRADUALLY FILL AND INCREASE IN
RETURN LVL ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE S COAST. LOOKS LIKE FIRST FLAKES
REACH THE GROUND MAYBE AS FLURRIES EVEN IN THE N BY MID DAY...WITH
THE STEADIER SNOW FOR THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY SE MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMS FROM CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD BASED ON
THIS MORNING/S MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SO NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THAT TO OCCUR HERE.
NONETHELESS...A FEW DIFFERENT PROCESSES WILL COMBINED TO BRING US A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FIRST...ENOUGH WEAK BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
IS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.  THE SECOND PROCESS IS COLD NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  TEMPS AT THE
INVERSION LAYER ARE AROUND -12C...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE OCEAN FOR THE FORMATION OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE THIRD PROCESS IS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THAT MAY CLIP THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
STRONGER LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

AS FOR ACCUMS...LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE FROM
PLYMOUTH COUNTY ONTO THE CAPE FROM BOTH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.  ACROSS NANTUCKET
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
GETTING GRAZED BY STRONGER FORCING.  EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE ISLAND.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH THE INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  WHILE THIS IS
NOT A BIG PLAYER FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF INTENSITY IS LIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MELTING ON ROADWAYS DESPITE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.  NONETHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS THERE IS
CERTAINLY THIS RISK FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY ABOUT MID DAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREIF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE ALREADY NOTING RETURNS ON KBOX THIS MORNING MAINLY
70+ NM AWAY FROM THE RADAR SO THEY ARE WELL ALOFT...MOST OF THESE
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON OBS IN BOTH OKX
AND ALY CWA. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS THIS
MORNING...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE THESE GRADUALLY FILL AND INCREASE IN
RETURN LVL ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE S COAST. LOOKS LIKE FIRST FLAKES
REACH THE GROUND MAYBE AS FLURRIES EVEN IN THE N BY MID DAY...WITH
THE STEADIER SNOW FOR THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY SE MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMS FROM CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD BASED ON
THIS MORNING/S MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SO NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THAT TO OCCUR HERE.
NONETHELESS...A FEW DIFFERENT PROCESSES WILL COMBINED TO BRING US A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FIRST...ENOUGH WEAK BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
IS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.  THE SECOND PROCESS IS COLD NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  TEMPS AT THE
INVERSION LAYER ARE AROUND -12C...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE OCEAN FOR THE FORMATION OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE THIRD PROCESS IS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THAT MAY CLIP THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
STRONGER LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

AS FOR ACCUMS...LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE FROM
PLYMOUTH COUNTY ONTO THE CAPE FROM BOTH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.  ACROSS NANTUCKET
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
GETTING GRAZED BY STRONGER FORCING.  EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE ISLAND.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH THE INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  WHILE THIS IS
NOT A BIG PLAYER FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF INTENSITY IS LIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MELTING ON ROADWAYS DESPITE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.  NONETHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS THERE IS
CERTAINLY THIS RISK FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS AT ALMOST ALL SITES BY ABOUT MID DAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREIF MVFR VSBYS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SN IS SE OF AN IJD-OWD
LINE...WHERE EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. ACCUMS
GENERALLY LIGHT...MAINLY 1-2 INCHES AT MOST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK. WINDS MAINLY N-NE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTENT IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 261141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 641 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE 10Z 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NEAREST REPORTING SITE
SHOWING SNOW IS OVER MARYLAND...SO DESPITE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NJ...IT SEEMS THAT THE
VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT SO FAR THIS MORNING...AS
PRECIP IS DRYING UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...MOST OF THE QPF SHOWN
IN THE MODELS WON/T REACH THE GROUND. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE...BUT IT WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS IN OUR AREA TO BE JUST
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261127
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR LOW DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN NJ AS OF 11Z.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRF-NMM INDICATES POTENTIAL
LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 261127
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR LOW DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN NJ AS OF 11Z.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRF-NMM INDICATES POTENTIAL
LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 261127
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR LOW DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN NJ AS OF 11Z.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRF-NMM INDICATES POTENTIAL
LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 261127
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR LOW DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN NJ AS OF 11Z.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRF-NMM INDICATES POTENTIAL
LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE VFR CONDS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW







000
FXUS61 KALY 261002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 502 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS AS IT MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WON/T REACH THE GROUND...AS
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS CAUSE ANY PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/..
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 261002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER FRIGID. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 502 AM EST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST/DEEPEST CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THANKS TO A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST. IT LOOKS AS IT MOST OF THIS WILL MISS OUR
AREA...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE 08Z 3KM HRRR
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WON/T REACH THE GROUND...AS
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS CAUSE ANY PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. WE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY EVENING. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THANKS TO
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE
LATE DAY HOURS. MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -11 TO -18
DEGREE C RANGE. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...THERE
MAY BE A SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER COLD. MINS
WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE TEMPS O TO -10 F...WITH
READINGS -5 TO -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS LOOK VERY LIGHT
TO CALM...SO NO WIND CHILL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS COULD
BE AS COLD AS -15 F OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO MUCH
WIND...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
IN ENOUGH IN VALLEY AREAS /5 MPH OR LESS/ TO NOT REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START
TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER FOR MID WEEK.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ALOFT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES EASTWARD A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SO HAVE RESTRICTED POPS TO CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
THERMAL PROFILE. INITIALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW MUCH
QPF THERE WILL BE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/..
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND IN THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AS NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THAT TO OCCUR HERE.
NONETHELESS...A FEW DIFFERENT PROCESSES WILL COMBINED TO BRING US A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FIRST...ENOUGH WEAK BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
IS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.  THE SECOND PROCESS IS COLD NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  TEMPS AT THE
INVERSION LAYER ARE AROUND -12C...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE OCEAN FOR THE FORMATION OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE THIRD PROCESS IS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THAT MAY CLIP THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
STRONGER LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

AS FOR ACCUMS...LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE FROM
PLYMOUTH COUNTY ONTO THE CAPE FROM BOTH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.  ACROSS NANTUCKET
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
GETTING GRAZED BY STRONGER FORCING.  EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE ISLAND.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH THE INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  WHILE THIS IS
NOT A BIG PLAYER FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF INTENSITY IS LIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MELTING ON ROADWAYS DESPITE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.  NONETHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS THERE IS
CERTAINLY THIS RISK FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST
IN MOST AREAS WHICH WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  WHILE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME
ANYWHERE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA
INCLUDING CAPE/ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THAT TO OCCUR HERE.
NONETHELESS...A FEW DIFFERENT PROCESSES WILL COMBINED TO BRING US A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FIRST...ENOUGH WEAK BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
IS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.  THE SECOND PROCESS IS COLD NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  TEMPS AT THE
INVERSION LAYER ARE AROUND -12C...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE OCEAN FOR THE FORMATION OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE THIRD PROCESS IS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THAT MAY CLIP THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
STRONGER LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

AS FOR ACCUMS...LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE FROM
PLYMOUTH COUNTY ONTO THE CAPE FROM BOTH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.  ACROSS NANTUCKET
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
GETTING GRAZED BY STRONGER FORCING.  EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE ISLAND.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH THE INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  WHILE THIS IS
NOT A BIG PLAYER FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF INTENSITY IS LIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MELTING ON ROADWAYS DESPITE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.  NONETHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS THERE IS
CERTAINLY THIS RISK FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST
IN MOST AREAS WHICH WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  WHILE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME
ANYWHERE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA
INCLUDING CAPE/ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THAT TO OCCUR HERE.
NONETHELESS...A FEW DIFFERENT PROCESSES WILL COMBINED TO BRING US A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FIRST...ENOUGH WEAK BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
IS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.  THE SECOND PROCESS IS COLD NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  TEMPS AT THE
INVERSION LAYER ARE AROUND -12C...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE OCEAN FOR THE FORMATION OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE THIRD PROCESS IS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THAT MAY CLIP THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
STRONGER LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

AS FOR ACCUMS...LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE FROM
PLYMOUTH COUNTY ONTO THE CAPE FROM BOTH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.  ACROSS NANTUCKET
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
GETTING GRAZED BY STRONGER FORCING.  EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE ISLAND.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH THE INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  WHILE THIS IS
NOT A BIG PLAYER FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF INTENSITY IS LIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MELTING ON ROADWAYS DESPITE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.  NONETHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS THERE IS
CERTAINLY THIS RISK FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST
IN MOST AREAS WHICH WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  WHILE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME
ANYWHERE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA
INCLUDING CAPE/ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OUT TO SEA MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
TODAY TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE
SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED
SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
  ENGLAND COAST ***

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THAT TO OCCUR HERE.
NONETHELESS...A FEW DIFFERENT PROCESSES WILL COMBINED TO BRING US A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

FIRST...ENOUGH WEAK BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
IS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.  THE SECOND PROCESS IS COLD NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA...ESPECIALLY PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  TEMPS AT THE
INVERSION LAYER ARE AROUND -12C...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DIFFERENTIAL OVER THE OCEAN FOR THE FORMATION OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE THIRD PROCESS IS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THAT MAY CLIP THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
STRONGER LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

AS FOR ACCUMS...LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE FROM
PLYMOUTH COUNTY ONTO THE CAPE FROM BOTH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.  ACROSS NANTUCKET
WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
GETTING GRAZED BY STRONGER FORCING.  EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE ISLAND.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NANTUCKET.  THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH THE INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.  WHILE THIS IS
NOT A BIG PLAYER FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF INTENSITY IS LIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MELTING ON ROADWAYS DESPITE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.  NONETHELESS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS AS THERE IS
CERTAINLY THIS RISK FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE THEM SCATTER OUT
LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  SOME OF THE
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH LIMITED MIXING.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH
SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT WILL FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE NAO/AO REMAINING POSITIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THE NEXT WEEK OR SO/S SENSIBLE
WX IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPLITTING FLOW
REGIMES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH SPLIT FLOW
MERGING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE...IT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER WAVES WITHIN THE SRN OR NRN STREAM REMAIN
DOMINANT...SOMETHING GUIDANCE TYPICALLY DOESN/T HANDLE WELL UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. INITIALLY IN THE MID TERM...THE CONFLUENCE OF
THESE STREAMS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO THE BUILDING OF
NEARLY 1045+ HPA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...IT SHEARS A NRN
STREAM WAVE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. THE SFC
REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE
WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLS...THE WEAKENING
NATURE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUE INTO WED...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM A 12Z ECMWF BLEND USING
GFS/GEFS AND ECENS AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS FAR SUPPRESSED WITH
THE STORMTRACK AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE STREAMS PHASE OR ONE DOMINATES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEFINED.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...
INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...CRESTING EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION DURING
THE DAY SUN. DEEP SNOWPACK AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE
DIGITS IN THE COLD NW...TO NEAR 0 FOR INTERIOR EA MA/RI AND CT.
HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...TO THE 20S AND NEAR
FREEZING BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE AND F-GEN NEAR TO THE FRONT ITSELF TO YIELD LIGHT-
MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL...SO GIVEN THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT...SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
APPROACH WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWS COME TO AN END TUE
AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOLLOWS BUT IS SHORT LIVED DUE TO
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING A STREAM
PHASING SCENARIO AND STRONGER LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PWATS COULD BE 2-3 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH ENERGY TRANSFER TO OFFSHORE
LOW...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME FURTHER N...BUT IS COLDER
/ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE 12Z/ AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF AT 12Z...BUT
WILL ADD IN SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR THERMALS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT WITH MODERATE-HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER POTENTIAL DYNAMICS.

THU...
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN THE FINAL STREAM
DOMINANCE. CHANCE FOR FURTHER STORMS IF THE NRN STREAM
DOMINATES...MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN IF THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST
IN MOST AREAS WHICH WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  WHILE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME
ANYWHERE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA
INCLUDING CAPE/ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THEN A DUSTING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SLY TO WLY...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.  A PERIOD OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS
MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY
ON THE SRN WATERS. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE S THEN SHIFT TO THE
W...INCREASING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE BY LATER
SUN. SEAS INCREASE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IF NOT GALES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES BY 12Z...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR FALLING DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR AND WRF-NMM INDICATED
POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THIS EVENING.

N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT
SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO
WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES BY 12Z...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR FALLING DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR AND WRF-NMM INDICATED
POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THIS EVENING.

N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT
SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO
WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 260835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES BY 12Z...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR FALLING DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR AND WRF-NMM INDICATED
POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THIS EVENING.

N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT
SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO
WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES BY 12Z...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR FALLING DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR AND WRF-NMM INDICATED
POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THIS EVENING.

N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT
SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO
WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES BY 12Z...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR FALLING DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR AND WRF-NMM INDICATED
POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THIS EVENING.

N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT
SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO
WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 260835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES QUICKLY SW TO
NE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE AND JET WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING CSTL ZONES BY 12Z...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IMPACTING CSTL ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONCERN THOUGH FOR FALLING DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING...THUS PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE.

SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM LATEST HRRR AND WRF-NMM INDICATED
POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW CSTL AND EASTERN LI AND INTO SE CT.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS FROM
PREVIOUS...LAYERED FROM CHANCE NW TO LIKELY EAST. TIMING OF ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY MEASURE WOULD BE 14Z THROUGH 19Z.

GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR CSTL LOCALES WITH PERHAPS A COATING
ELSEWHERE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THIS EVENING.

N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL 15Z TO 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KTS. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER
WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT
SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO
WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE.  WHILE IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL REMAINS TRICKY.  WINDS
HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE...BUT THEY MAY FOR A FEW HOURS
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOW PACK TEMPS COULD QUICKLY TUMBLE IN SOME OF THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OFFSET THAT TO SOME DEGREE.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS.  THE URBAN CENTERS
OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST
IN MOST AREAS WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  WHILE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWHERE...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THEM WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THAN A COATING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE.  WHILE IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL REMAINS TRICKY.  WINDS
HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE...BUT THEY MAY FOR A FEW HOURS
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOW PACK TEMPS COULD QUICKLY TUMBLE IN SOME OF THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OFFSET THAT TO SOME DEGREE.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS.  THE URBAN CENTERS
OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST
IN MOST AREAS WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  WHILE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWHERE...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THEM WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THAN A COATING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE.  WHILE IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL REMAINS TRICKY.  WINDS
HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE...BUT THEY MAY FOR A FEW HOURS
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOW PACK TEMPS COULD QUICKLY TUMBLE IN SOME OF THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OFFSET THAT TO SOME DEGREE.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS.  THE URBAN CENTERS
OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST
IN MOST AREAS WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  WHILE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWHERE...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THEM WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THAN A COATING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO
WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE.  WHILE IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL REMAINS TRICKY.  WINDS
HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE...BUT THEY MAY FOR A FEW HOURS
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOW PACK TEMPS COULD QUICKLY TUMBLE IN SOME OF THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OFFSET THAT TO SOME DEGREE.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS.  THE URBAN CENTERS
OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTH NORTHEAST
IN MOST AREAS WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  WHILE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWHERE...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THEM WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE NO MORE THAN A COATING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 260600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EST...A STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...A
LARGE SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY THIS EVENING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STOP
FALLING AS FAST WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA WILL SEE LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW...AS
CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO REACH THOSE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS IT REMAINING PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY TRY TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...IT/S EXPECTED THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP
WILL LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS STORM
SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT WILL MAINLY ONLY AFFECT
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AT MOST...A DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL OCCUR.

IT WILL COLD WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. A
NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELY FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS
TO LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON
MON...AFTER ANY STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME
SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACHED
KPOU WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...06Z/FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 260600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EST...A STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...A
LARGE SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY THIS EVENING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STOP
FALLING AS FAST WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA WILL SEE LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW...AS
CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO REACH THOSE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS IT REMAINING PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY TRY TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...IT/S EXPECTED THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP
WILL LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS STORM
SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT WILL MAINLY ONLY AFFECT
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AT MOST...A DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL OCCUR.

IT WILL COLD WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. A
NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELY FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS
TO LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON
MON...AFTER ANY STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME
SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACHED
KPOU WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...06Z/FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 260600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EST...A STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...A
LARGE SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY THIS EVENING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STOP
FALLING AS FAST WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA WILL SEE LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW...AS
CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO REACH THOSE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS IT REMAINING PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY TRY TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...IT/S EXPECTED THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP
WILL LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS STORM
SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT WILL MAINLY ONLY AFFECT
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AT MOST...A DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL OCCUR.

IT WILL COLD WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. A
NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELY FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS
TO LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON
MON...AFTER ANY STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME
SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACHED
KPOU WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...06Z/FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 260600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EST...A STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE...A
LARGE SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY THIS EVENING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STOP
FALLING AS FAST WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA WILL SEE LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW...AS
CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO REACH THOSE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS IT REMAINING PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY TRY TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...IT/S EXPECTED THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP
WILL LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS STORM
SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT WILL MAINLY ONLY AFFECT
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AT MOST...A DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL OCCUR.

IT WILL COLD WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. A
NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELY FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS
TO LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON
MON...AFTER ANY STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME
SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACHED
KPOU WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...06Z/FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EST...A STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...A LARGE SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY
THIS EVENING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER...TEMPS
WILL STOP FALLING AS FAST WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA WILL SEE LOWS ZERO TO
10 BELOW...AS CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO REACH THOSE NORTHERN
AREAS.

THE 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS IT REMAINING PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY TRY TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...IT/S EXPECTED THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP
WILL LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE TI REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS STORM
SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT WILL MAINLY ONLY AFFECT
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AT MOST...A DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL OCCUR.

IT WILL COLD WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. A
NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELY FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS
TO LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON
MON...AFTER ANY STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME
SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACHED
KPOU WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...06Z/FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EST...A STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...A LARGE SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY
THIS EVENING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER...TEMPS
WILL STOP FALLING AS FAST WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10...ALTHOUGH THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA WILL SEE LOWS ZERO TO
10 BELOW...AS CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO REACH THOSE NORTHERN
AREAS.

THE 04Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS IT REMAINING PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY TRY TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...IT/S EXPECTED THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP
WILL LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE TI REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS STORM
SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT WILL MAINLY ONLY AFFECT
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AT MOST...A DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL OCCUR.

IT WILL COLD WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. A
NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELY FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS
TO LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON
MON...AFTER ANY STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME
SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKS
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACHED
KPOU WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...06Z/FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...LAKES...AND
PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 260533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1233 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TEMP TRENDS AS
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY NOT OCCUR DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SPC SSEO INDICATING A SHARP CUTOFF IN PROB OF 1 INCH OF SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF LI AND ONLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SE LI. 12Z
GEFS/CMCE/SREF ENSEMBLE PROBS OF GREATER THAN .05 INCHES IN 6 HRS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR E LI AND SE
CT...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FAR NW OF NYC.
WITH GOOD HIGH RES/OPER AGREEMENT HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO POPS FOR A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT ON THU
AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW NIGHT SHIFT TO EVALUATE RADAR AND HIGH-
RES TRENDS TO ADJUST POPS.

LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING...TRACKS TO
THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES E OF
NYC 00Z FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES DURING THE DAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CORRELATION WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN THE WET CAMP...WITH THE
NAM AND GFS MAINLY DRY. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT NAM
AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO TO SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY MOST AREAS BASED ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE ECMWF AND SREF TRENDS.

SNOW CHANCES WIND DOWN THU EVE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WAVE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLURRY. THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE FRIGID WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS ON THU A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM 2M DATA. A MET/MAV BLEND
WAS USED THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RUN AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - BASED ON AN
ADJUSTED BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS.

LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS SATURDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - AND SHOULD BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH EITHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL/MODEL BLEND OF CHOICE.

MODELS ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING...TO EAST OF MAINE
BY LATE MONDAY (ECMWF A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS)...WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA ON
MONDAY. MAINLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN BEHIND IT DUE TO THE
FORECAST ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO
START ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW OVER COASTAL ZONES. NOTE...FOR SIMPLICITY AND DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME HAVE RESTRICTED P-TYPES TO
RAIN/RAIN-SNOW/SNOW. ALSO...IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW
TO THE S...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRIMARY LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (RAIN/SNOW NYC)...A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT OVER FAR N INTERIOR ZONES. ONCE AGAIN FOR
SIMPLICITY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME RANGE HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VARYING DEGREES OF BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SE TODAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWERING/THICKENING
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE OFFSHORE LOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND A PD OF
MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXACT
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL ONLY LOW ALONG THE COAST AND MEDIUM
INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN VFR CONDS THU EVENING.

N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME 8-12 KT DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THU EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON THE OCEAN AFTER SUNRISE AS
LOW PRES PASSES SE OF THE WATERS...WITH IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL...HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA TO LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE THU.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN/DS
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 260324
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE N.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT.

ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SPC SSEO INDICATING A SHARP CUTOFF IN PROB OF 1 INCH OF SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF LI AND ONLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SE LI. 12Z
GEFS/CMCE/SREF ENSEMBLE PROBS OF GREATER THAN .05 INCHES IN 6 HRS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR E LI AND SE
CT...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FAR NW OF NYC.
WITH GOOD HIGH RES/OPER AGREEMENT HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO POPS FOR A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT ON THU
AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW NIGHT SHIFT TO EVALUATE RADAR AND HIGH-
RES TRENDS TO ADJUST POPS.

LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING...TRACKS TO
THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES E OF
NYC 00Z FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES DURING THE DAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CORRELATION WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN THE WET CAMP...WITH THE
NAM AND GFS MAINLY DRY. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT NAM
AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO TO SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY MOST AREAS BASED ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE ECMWF AND SREF TRENDS.

SNOW CHANCES WIND DOWN THU EVE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WAVE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLURRY. THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE FRIGID WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS ON THU A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM 2M DATA. A MET/MAV BLEND
WAS USED THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RUN AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - BASED ON AN
ADJUSTED BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS.

LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS SATURDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - AND SHOULD BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH EITHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL/MODEL BLEND OF CHOICE.

MODELS ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING...TO EAST OF MAINE
BY LATE MONDAY (ECMWF A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS)...WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA ON
MONDAY. MAINLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN BEHIND IT DUE TO THE
FORECAST ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO
START ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW OVER COASTAL ZONES. NOTE...FOR SIMPLICITY AND DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME HAVE RESTRICTED P-TYPES TO
RAIN/RAIN-SNOW/SNOW. ALSO...IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW
TO THE S...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRIMARY LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (RAIN/SNOW NYC)...A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT OVER FAR N INTERIOR ZONES. ONCE AGAIN FOR
SIMPLICITY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME RANGE HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VARYING DEGREES OF BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY 04Z...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
WELL TO THE SE ON THU.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWERING/THICKENING
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CAT DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS THU IS LOW...AS THE OFFSHORE LOW AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...
WHICH MAY BRING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBY. FCST DOES
NOT HIT THIS VERY HARD ATTM BUT IS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-21Z THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON THE OCEAN THU AS LOW PRES
PASSES SE OF THE WATERS...WITH IMPROVEMENT THU NIGHT. WITH
MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL...HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA TO LET NEXT SHIFT
EVALUATE TRENDS.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE THU.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN/DW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 260324
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE N.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT.

ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SPC SSEO INDICATING A SHARP CUTOFF IN PROB OF 1 INCH OF SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF LI AND ONLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SE LI. 12Z
GEFS/CMCE/SREF ENSEMBLE PROBS OF GREATER THAN .05 INCHES IN 6 HRS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR E LI AND SE
CT...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FAR NW OF NYC.
WITH GOOD HIGH RES/OPER AGREEMENT HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO POPS FOR A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT ON THU
AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW NIGHT SHIFT TO EVALUATE RADAR AND HIGH-
RES TRENDS TO ADJUST POPS.

LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING...TRACKS TO
THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES E OF
NYC 00Z FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES DURING THE DAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CORRELATION WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN THE WET CAMP...WITH THE
NAM AND GFS MAINLY DRY. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT NAM
AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO TO SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY MOST AREAS BASED ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE ECMWF AND SREF TRENDS.

SNOW CHANCES WIND DOWN THU EVE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WAVE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLURRY. THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE FRIGID WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS ON THU A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM 2M DATA. A MET/MAV BLEND
WAS USED THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RUN AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - BASED ON AN
ADJUSTED BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS.

LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS SATURDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - AND SHOULD BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH EITHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL/MODEL BLEND OF CHOICE.

MODELS ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING...TO EAST OF MAINE
BY LATE MONDAY (ECMWF A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS)...WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA ON
MONDAY. MAINLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN BEHIND IT DUE TO THE
FORECAST ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO
START ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW OVER COASTAL ZONES. NOTE...FOR SIMPLICITY AND DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME HAVE RESTRICTED P-TYPES TO
RAIN/RAIN-SNOW/SNOW. ALSO...IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW
TO THE S...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRIMARY LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (RAIN/SNOW NYC)...A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT OVER FAR N INTERIOR ZONES. ONCE AGAIN FOR
SIMPLICITY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME RANGE HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VARYING DEGREES OF BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY 04Z...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
WELL TO THE SE ON THU.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWERING/THICKENING
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CAT DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS THU IS LOW...AS THE OFFSHORE LOW AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...
WHICH MAY BRING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBY. FCST DOES
NOT HIT THIS VERY HARD ATTM BUT IS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-21Z THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON THE OCEAN THU AS LOW PRES
PASSES SE OF THE WATERS...WITH IMPROVEMENT THU NIGHT. WITH
MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL...HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA TO LET NEXT SHIFT
EVALUATE TRENDS.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE THU.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN/DW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 260324
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE N.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT.

ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SPC SSEO INDICATING A SHARP CUTOFF IN PROB OF 1 INCH OF SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF LI AND ONLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SE LI. 12Z
GEFS/CMCE/SREF ENSEMBLE PROBS OF GREATER THAN .05 INCHES IN 6 HRS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR E LI AND SE
CT...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FAR NW OF NYC.
WITH GOOD HIGH RES/OPER AGREEMENT HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO POPS FOR A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT ON THU
AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW NIGHT SHIFT TO EVALUATE RADAR AND HIGH-
RES TRENDS TO ADJUST POPS.

LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING...TRACKS TO
THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES E OF
NYC 00Z FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES DURING THE DAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CORRELATION WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN THE WET CAMP...WITH THE
NAM AND GFS MAINLY DRY. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT NAM
AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO TO SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY MOST AREAS BASED ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE ECMWF AND SREF TRENDS.

SNOW CHANCES WIND DOWN THU EVE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WAVE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLURRY. THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE FRIGID WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS ON THU A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM 2M DATA. A MET/MAV BLEND
WAS USED THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RUN AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - BASED ON AN
ADJUSTED BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS.

LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS SATURDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - AND SHOULD BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH EITHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL/MODEL BLEND OF CHOICE.

MODELS ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING...TO EAST OF MAINE
BY LATE MONDAY (ECMWF A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS)...WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA ON
MONDAY. MAINLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN BEHIND IT DUE TO THE
FORECAST ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO
START ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW OVER COASTAL ZONES. NOTE...FOR SIMPLICITY AND DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME HAVE RESTRICTED P-TYPES TO
RAIN/RAIN-SNOW/SNOW. ALSO...IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW
TO THE S...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRIMARY LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (RAIN/SNOW NYC)...A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT OVER FAR N INTERIOR ZONES. ONCE AGAIN FOR
SIMPLICITY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME RANGE HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VARYING DEGREES OF BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY 04Z...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
WELL TO THE SE ON THU.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWERING/THICKENING
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CAT DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS THU IS LOW...AS THE OFFSHORE LOW AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...
WHICH MAY BRING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBY. FCST DOES
NOT HIT THIS VERY HARD ATTM BUT IS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-21Z THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON THE OCEAN THU AS LOW PRES
PASSES SE OF THE WATERS...WITH IMPROVEMENT THU NIGHT. WITH
MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL...HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA TO LET NEXT SHIFT
EVALUATE TRENDS.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE THU.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN/DW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 260324
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE N.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT.

ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SPC SSEO INDICATING A SHARP CUTOFF IN PROB OF 1 INCH OF SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF LI AND ONLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SE LI. 12Z
GEFS/CMCE/SREF ENSEMBLE PROBS OF GREATER THAN .05 INCHES IN 6 HRS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR E LI AND SE
CT...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FAR NW OF NYC.
WITH GOOD HIGH RES/OPER AGREEMENT HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO POPS FOR A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT ON THU
AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW NIGHT SHIFT TO EVALUATE RADAR AND HIGH-
RES TRENDS TO ADJUST POPS.

LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING...TRACKS TO
THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES E OF
NYC 00Z FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES DURING THE DAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CORRELATION WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN THE WET CAMP...WITH THE
NAM AND GFS MAINLY DRY. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT NAM
AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO TO SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY MOST AREAS BASED ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE ECMWF AND SREF TRENDS.

SNOW CHANCES WIND DOWN THU EVE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WAVE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLURRY. THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE FRIGID WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS ON THU A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM 2M DATA. A MET/MAV BLEND
WAS USED THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RUN AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - BASED ON AN
ADJUSTED BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS.

LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS SATURDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - AND SHOULD BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH EITHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL/MODEL BLEND OF CHOICE.

MODELS ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING...TO EAST OF MAINE
BY LATE MONDAY (ECMWF A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS)...WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA ON
MONDAY. MAINLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN BEHIND IT DUE TO THE
FORECAST ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO
START ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW OVER COASTAL ZONES. NOTE...FOR SIMPLICITY AND DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME HAVE RESTRICTED P-TYPES TO
RAIN/RAIN-SNOW/SNOW. ALSO...IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW
TO THE S...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRIMARY LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (RAIN/SNOW NYC)...A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT OVER FAR N INTERIOR ZONES. ONCE AGAIN FOR
SIMPLICITY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME RANGE HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VARYING DEGREES OF BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY 04Z...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
WELL TO THE SE ON THU.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWERING/THICKENING
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CAT DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS THU IS LOW...AS THE OFFSHORE LOW AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...
WHICH MAY BRING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBY. FCST DOES
NOT HIT THIS VERY HARD ATTM BUT IS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-20Z THU.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-21Z THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON THE OCEAN THU AS LOW PRES
PASSES SE OF THE WATERS...WITH IMPROVEMENT THU NIGHT. WITH
MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL...HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA TO LET NEXT SHIFT
EVALUATE TRENDS.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE THU.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN/DW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KBOX 260229
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS COVERED
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THIS MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST QUITE TRICKY IN
THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK
WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THESE LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTHWEST
MA.  HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES.  MEANWHILE...LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS ACROSS THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260229
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS COVERED
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THIS MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST QUITE TRICKY IN
THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK
WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THESE LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTHWEST
MA.  HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES.  MEANWHILE...LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS ACROSS THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260229
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS COVERED
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THIS MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST QUITE TRICKY IN
THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK
WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THESE LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTHWEST
MA.  HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY LEVEL OFF OR RISE A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES.  MEANWHILE...LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS ACROSS THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260023
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS EVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE N.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THE DIURNAL SWING MAY CREATE SOME ERRATIC HOURLY
READINGS. FOR INSTANCE...SPOTS COULD DROP QUICKER THAN FORECAST
AFT SUNSET...THEN STALL AFT MIDNIGHT.

ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING...TRACKS TO
THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES E OF
NYC 00Z FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES DURING THE DAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CORRELATION WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN THE WET CAMP...WITH THE
NAM AND GFS MAINLY DRY. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT NAM
AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO TO SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY MOST AREAS BASED ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE ECMWF AND SREF TRENDS.

GEFS/CMCE/SREF ENSEMBLE PROBS OF GREATER THAN .05 INCHES IN 6 HRS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR E LI AND SE
CT...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FAR NW OF NYC.
THIS SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE...AND CHANCE TO THE NORTH FOR A VERY LIGHT SNOW
EVENT.

SNOW CHANCES WIND DOWN THU EVE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WAVE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLURRY. THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE FRIGID WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS ON THU A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM 2M DATA. A MET/MAV BLEND
WAS USED THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RUN AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - BASED ON AN
ADJUSTED BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS.

LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS SATURDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - AND SHOULD BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH EITHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL/MODEL BLEND OF CHOICE.

MODELS ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING...TO EAST OF MAINE
BY LATE MONDAY (ECMWF A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS)...WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA ON
MONDAY. MAINLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN BEHIND IT DUE TO THE
FORECAST ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO
START ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW OVER COASTAL ZONES. NOTE...FOR SIMPLICITY AND DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME HAVE RESTRICTED P-TYPES TO
RAIN/RAIN-SNOW/SNOW. ALSO...IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW
TO THE S...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRIMARY LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (RAIN/SNOW NYC)...A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT OVER FAR N INTERIOR ZONES. ONCE AGAIN FOR
SIMPLICITY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME RANGE HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VARYING DEGREES OF BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE SE ON THU.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWERING/THICKENING
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CAT IS LOW ALONG THE
COAST AND MEDIUM INLAND...AS THE OFFSHORE LOW AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...
WHICH MAY BRING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBY. FCST DOES
NOT HIT THIS VERY HARD ATTM BUT IS TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 14Z-20Z THU.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z-20Z THU.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z-20Z THU.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z-20Z THU.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z-20Z THU.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z-21Z THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE OCEAN THIS EVE...SO THE SCA TIMING
REMAINS THE SAME ENDING AT 6 PM. SCA CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE
OCEAN THU AS LOW PRES PASSES SE OF THE WATERS...WITH IMPROVEMENT
THU NIGHT.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE THU.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KALY 260009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY
MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL NOT YIELD DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS...GENERALLY DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO...SO NO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. ACTUAL LOWS TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ZERO TO 10 BELOW WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A COATING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL. DRY ELSEWHERE.

THE WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR
PARTS COME THURSDAY. AT MOST...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE MAINLY FROM I-90 SOUTH...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE WOULD
BE LOOKING AT A DUSTING IN MOST PLACES. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS REACHING
NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IT WILL COLD TOMORROW WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ALBANY SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELIES FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS TO
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON MON...AFTER ANY
STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY
TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR
SOUTH. ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER FURTHER WITH CIGS
BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL THETAF SITES
BETWEEN AROUND 14Z AND 21Z. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE ONLY LOCATION
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY BRUSH THAT AREA AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OUT
TO SEA. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KPOU WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR
LESS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT
5-6 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL ON THURSDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 260009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY
MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL NOT YIELD DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS...GENERALLY DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO...SO NO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. ACTUAL LOWS TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ZERO TO 10 BELOW WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A COATING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL. DRY ELSEWHERE.

THE WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR
PARTS COME THURSDAY. AT MOST...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE MAINLY FROM I-90 SOUTH...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE WOULD
BE LOOKING AT A DUSTING IN MOST PLACES. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS REACHING
NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IT WILL COLD TOMORROW WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ALBANY SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELIES FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS TO
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON MON...AFTER ANY
STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY
TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR
SOUTH. ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER FURTHER WITH CIGS
BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL THETAF SITES
BETWEEN AROUND 14Z AND 21Z. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE ONLY LOCATION
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY BRUSH THAT AREA AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OUT
TO SEA. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KPOU WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR
LESS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT
5-6 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL ON THURSDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 260009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY
MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL NOT YIELD DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS...GENERALLY DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO...SO NO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. ACTUAL LOWS TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ZERO TO 10 BELOW WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A COATING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL. DRY ELSEWHERE.

THE WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR
PARTS COME THURSDAY. AT MOST...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE MAINLY FROM I-90 SOUTH...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE WOULD
BE LOOKING AT A DUSTING IN MOST PLACES. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS REACHING
NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IT WILL COLD TOMORROW WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ALBANY SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELIES FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS TO
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON MON...AFTER ANY
STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY
TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR
SOUTH. ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER FURTHER WITH CIGS
BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL THETAF SITES
BETWEEN AROUND 14Z AND 21Z. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE ONLY LOCATION
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY BRUSH THAT AREA AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OUT
TO SEA. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KPOU WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR
LESS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT
5-6 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL ON THURSDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 260009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH... POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY
MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL NOT YIELD DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS...GENERALLY DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO...SO NO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. ACTUAL LOWS TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ZERO TO 10 BELOW WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A COATING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL. DRY ELSEWHERE.

THE WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR
PARTS COME THURSDAY. AT MOST...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE MAINLY FROM I-90 SOUTH...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE WOULD
BE LOOKING AT A DUSTING IN MOST PLACES. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS REACHING
NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IT WILL COLD TOMORROW WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ALBANY SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELIES FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS TO
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON MON...AFTER ANY
STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY
TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR
SOUTH. ON THURSDAY THE CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER FURTHER WITH CIGS
BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL THETAF SITES
BETWEEN AROUND 14Z AND 21Z. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE ONLY LOCATION
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY BRUSH THAT AREA AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OUT
TO SEA. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KPOU WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR
LESS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT
5-6 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL ON THURSDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252345
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252345
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252345
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252345
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 252150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING A
COLD NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...MIGHT BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT
SNOW TO SOME SECTIONS THURSDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 400 PM EST...THE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED MOST IF NOT OUR ENTIRE
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN NEGATED BY DEEP MIXING AND THE
SOMEWHAT STRONG FEBRUARY SUN.

WE WILL LOOSE THE SUNSHINE SOON AND MIXING WILL LOWER...WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL NOT
YIELD DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS. THEY WILL DIP TO PERHAPS 10
BELOW...BUT GENERALLY NOT THE 15 BELOW. ACTUAL LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ZERO TO 10 BELOW WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN BY DAYBREAK.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A COATING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL. DRY ELSEWHERE.

THE WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 410
PM...A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON
THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. AT MOST...A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE MAINLY FROM I-90
SOUTH...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT A DUSTING IN
MOST PLACES. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS REACHING NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL COLD TOMORROW WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ALBANY SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELIES FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS TO
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON MON...AFTER ANY
STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

$$ KL &&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.

THEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL BRING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z/THU.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 22Z/WED-04Z/THU...LAST AT KALB AND KPSF. EVENTUALLY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL ON THURSDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 252150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING A
COLD NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...MIGHT BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT
SNOW TO SOME SECTIONS THURSDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 400 PM EST...THE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED MOST IF NOT OUR ENTIRE
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN NEGATED BY DEEP MIXING AND THE
SOMEWHAT STRONG FEBRUARY SUN.

WE WILL LOOSE THE SUNSHINE SOON AND MIXING WILL LOWER...WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL NOT
YIELD DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS. THEY WILL DIP TO PERHAPS 10
BELOW...BUT GENERALLY NOT THE 15 BELOW. ACTUAL LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ZERO TO 10 BELOW WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN BY DAYBREAK.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A COATING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL. DRY ELSEWHERE.

THE WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 410
PM...A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON
THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. AT MOST...A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE MAINLY FROM I-90
SOUTH...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT A DUSTING IN
MOST PLACES. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS REACHING NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL COLD TOMORROW WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ALBANY SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELIES FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS TO
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON MON...AFTER ANY
STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

$$ KL &&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.

THEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL BRING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z/THU.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 22Z/WED-04Z/THU...LAST AT KALB AND KPSF. EVENTUALLY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL ON THURSDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 252150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING A
COLD NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...MIGHT BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT
SNOW TO SOME SECTIONS THURSDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE COLD
WEATHER WILL FINISH OFF OUR SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 400 PM EST...THE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED MOST IF NOT OUR ENTIRE
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN NEGATED BY DEEP MIXING AND THE
SOMEWHAT STRONG FEBRUARY SUN.

WE WILL LOOSE THE SUNSHINE SOON AND MIXING WILL LOWER...WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL NOT
YIELD DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS. THEY WILL DIP TO PERHAPS 10
BELOW...BUT GENERALLY NOT THE 15 BELOW. ACTUAL LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ZERO TO 10 BELOW WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN BY DAYBREAK.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A COATING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL. DRY ELSEWHERE.

THE WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 410
PM...A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LOOKS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...NOTICEABLE ON
THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MIGHT HAVE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM...TO GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR PARTS COME THURSDAY. AT MOST...A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE MAINLY FROM I-90
SOUTH...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT A DUSTING IN
MOST PLACES. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS REACHING NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL COLD TOMORROW WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ALBANY SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. A NORTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK NORTHERN SYSTEM (AND THE MUCH STRONG
SOUTHERN STORM) WILL PULL AWAY AND ALLOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHORT OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC...NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY GIVE ALBANY TWO BELOW ZERO NIGHTS (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS). OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EACH
NIGHT.

IF ALBANY WERE TO GO BELOW ZERO BOTH THESE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WE WOULD TIE THE MOST NIGHTS BELOW ZERO IN ANY FEBRUARY
WITH 13 (LAST HAPPENED IN 1914). WE ALSO LOOK TO HAVE A LOCK ON THE
SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY EVER AND STILL HAVE A SHOT AT OUR COLDEST ON
RECORD...12.1 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1934.

SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND HIGHS
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AND LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 20S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEEP IN MIND NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY DEFLECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR-
AND SHORT-TERM...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH...OFFERING SOME
THREATS FOR AT LEAST LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE TUE-WED. HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY FALLING BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS. THEN...A PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO SUN NT.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO
MUCH OF SUN NT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MON AM. QPF IS
HIGHEST ON THE ECMWF...WHERE AROUND 0.35-0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
INDICATED...GREATEST FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...SO THERE
COULD BE SOME MODERATE AMTS...PARTICULARLY AGAIN IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS INTO SOUTHERN VT. AT THIS
TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE SUN...THEN LIKELIES FOR
SUN NT FROM I-90 NORTHWARD...AND HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUN MAXES...AND TEENS TO
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEY AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM...WARMEST ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ON MON...AFTER ANY
STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER...AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MON NT-
EARLY TUE...BEFORE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY...THIS ONE ORIGINATING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO WED.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE...AND WHETHER IT
SHEARS OUT IN THE STRONGLY MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND
ALSO WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP. BOTH THE
12Z/25 GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE PV ANOMALY WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH VARYING DEGREES
ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND RESULTING PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY A QUICK SURGE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING
LATE TUE OR TUE NT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WED AM...POSSIBLY AS A
LIGHT MIX OR EVEN RAIN/DRIZZLE...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE PRECIP TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/25 GEFS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN HANDLING THE TRACK OF ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A N/W TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMING AND
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND OTHERS FURTHER S AND E WITH SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION...BUT ALSO FURTHER N WITH
THE PRECIP...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. MON
NT/TUE AM SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS...AND TUE MAXES IN THE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH WED MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY
RISING INTO THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

$$ KL &&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.

THEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL BRING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z/THU.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 22Z/WED-04Z/THU...LAST AT KALB AND KPSF. EVENTUALLY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL ON THURSDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD AND MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
* CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* CHANCE OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES FOR A TIME BUT SEEMS TO BUILD
BACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT POSSIBLY NOT QUITE SO
STRONGLY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND EVENTUALLY WILL EJECT SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
NORTHERN STREAM APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER AND MAY BE
THE DOMINANT FLOW FOR OUR REGION. A COLDER TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE
DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. NONETHELESS...THIS COULD CHANGE IN
EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING HOW MUCH ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE IS ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY TO DEVELOPMENTS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. DAY TO DAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
COAST DURING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SO SOME MIXING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THINK
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND MAY SEE A FREE
FALL IN TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STILL LIGHTER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY IF NOT
TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MANY INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ARCTIC FRONT. ONE OR
MORE WEAK WAVES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EPISODE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD DURING MONDAY
BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S...HELPED ALONG BY A HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVERTISING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO DEPICT A PRIMARY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE
HAS BEEN A TENDENCY TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION IN RECENT
RUNS...LIKELY REFLECTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW...AND THE 12Z ECMWF GOES SO FAR AS TO SUPPRESS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VARIATIONS
IN MODEL SUCCESSIVE RUNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE
LIKELY...HOWEVER...TO SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ITERATIONS IN
SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONAL AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FEET FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN APPROACH MINIMAL GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOME OF THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KJC/THOMPSON
MARINE...KJC/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 252105
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL N OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS WAS SLOW AS IT WAS GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
SUNSET ALONG WITH LOWERING PRES TO THE S SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO SWING THROUGH THIS EVE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.

SOME CIRRUS TO START THE EVE...THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE DIURNAL SWING MAY
CREATE SOME ERRATIC HOURLY READINGS. FOR INSTANCE...SPOTS COULD DROP
QUICKER THAN FORECAST AFT SUNSET...THEN STALL AFT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS 12Z THU...TRACKS TO THE
ENE THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHES A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES E OF NYC
00Z FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IA
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME
LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES DURING THE DAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CORRELATION WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN THE WET CAMP...WITH THE
NAM AND GFS MAINLY DRY. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT NAM
AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO TO SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY MOST AREAS BAD ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE ECMWF AND SREF TRENDS.

SNOW CHANCES WIND DOWN THU EVE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WAVE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLURRY. THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE FRIGID WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS ON THU A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM 2M DATA. A MET/MAV BLEND
WAS USED THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RUN AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RUN AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - BASED ON AN
ADJUSTED BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS.

LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS SATURDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - AND SHOULD BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH EITHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL/MODEL BLEND OF CHOICE.

MODELS ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING...TO EAST OF MAINE
BY LATE MONDAY (ECMWF A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS)...WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA ON
MONDAY. MAINLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN BEHIND IT DUE TO THE
FORECAST ANAFRONT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO
START ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW OVER COASTAL ZONES. NOTE...FOR SIMPLICITY AND DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME HAVE RESTRICTED P-TYPES TO
RAIN/RAIN-SNOW/SNOW. ALSO...IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW
TO THE S...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRIMARY LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (RAIN/SNOW NYC)...A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT OVER FAR N INTERIOR ZONES. ONCE AGAIN FOR
SIMPLICITY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME RANGE HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VARYING DEGREES OF BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THU.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING MID LEVEL DECK
TONIGHT INTO THU.

W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFT. WINDS THEN
VEER NW-N DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN N-NE 10-12
KT THU.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON THU...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THU THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE OCEAN THIS EVE...SO THE SCA TIMING
REMAINS THE SAME ENDING AT 6 PM. SCA CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE
OCEAN THU AS LOW PRES PASSES SE OF THE WATERS...WITH IMPROVEMENT
THU NIGHT.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE THU.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGING FROM ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDS INTO SE
CANADA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OVERNIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH
YIELDS MINS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND SINGLE NUMBERS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN W MA
DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND
WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND
WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF
AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS
JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF
NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2
INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN
INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY ROBUST BELOW 700 MB. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. NEAR ZERO READING POSSIBLE IN W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF IFR AND HEAVIER SNOW
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THIS EVENING...BUT SCA SEAS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS
WELL S OF THE WATERS. A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING N WINDS BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS
PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
109 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WAS STILL NW OF THE CWA AT NOON. MIXING TO JUST BLW H85 PER
SFC TEMPS AND THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING. RAISED HI TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT
DO NOT THINK THERE IS MUCH ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH AN
INVERSION AROUND H85...AND SNOW COVER LIMITING THE SUPER POTENTIAL
AT THE SFC. THINK ATTM CAA WILL BE LIMITED TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS
SHIFT TO THE N. A FEW HI CLOUDS ON STLT...OTHERWISE SUNNY FOR THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FORCING STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES. THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY AS
WELL...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE. FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING
THE DAY WITH THE SMALL POSSIBILITY THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ABLE TO ADVANCE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MORNING AND RISE INTO THE
TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING ON UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH DIFFERS...AS DOES
TIMING. TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH EITHER FLAT FLOW OR WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND. THEN WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECTS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY...WITH LARGER DIFFERENCES NOTED. THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS.

AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ALL
FORECAST A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA MONDAY...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID WEST TOWARD GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

WHAT THIS MEANS IS MAINLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST...WITH PERHAPS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND SNOW COULD
BECOME A WINTRY MIX...WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT WITH REGARD TO
WAA.

WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY ENDS MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY. AGAIN...DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

TEMPS REMAIN DOWNRIGHT COLD COURTESY OF ARCTIC HIGH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH A COLDER NIGHT LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED LOWS FROM
AROUND ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY.

EXPECTED HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 20S EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. WHILE THIS IS WARMER...IT IS STILL
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA ON THU.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING MID LEVEL DECK
TONIGHT INTO THU.

W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFT. WINDS THEN
VEER NW-N DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN N-NE 10-12
KT THU.

A PASSING SNOW FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE THU.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU...LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MIXED PCPN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA UNTIL
23Z ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 5 FT. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME.

WINDS LIGHTEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SEAS REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK.
SEAS SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS LIGHTEN. FOR THE HARBORS/BAYS AND
SOUND...SEAS/WAVES REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD. MANY AREAS ARE AFFECTED BY ICE AS WELL...AND THIS
CONTINUES AS COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW








000
FXUS61 KBOX 251756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1250 PM UPDATE...
CU BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AS EXPECTED. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SNE BUT EXPECT SCT-BKN CU TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE 850 MB
MOISTURE DEVELOPING BY 18Z. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS...MAINLY
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN REACH THE MID 30S. BUT IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY AS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW TEMPS A BIT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SKIES SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK...TEMPS MAY DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  THEN THEY MAY LEVEL OFF A BIT DEPENDING ON HOW
THICK THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ENDS UP.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W ALONG WITH SUPPRESSED UPPER
LVL JET WILL KEEP STORM WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE IMPACT ON
SRN NEW ENGLAND. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR CAPE COD ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LVL WAVE CATCHES UP AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO BELOW -12C.
TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY SO AS
OTHER DAYS THIS SEASON.

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 251741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE
START OF WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1230 PM EST...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE HUDSON
VALLEY BRINING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FLURRIES TO THE
VALLEYS. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WAS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WE ALREADY BUMPED UP
WINDS SO NO CHANGE THERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED AROUND 30 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME
AREAS EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE AT ALL...TOPPING OUT
MAYBE IN THE MID 30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WINS OUT OVER DOWNSLOPING/SUNSHINE...30 MOST OTHER VALLEY
PLACES...FALLING THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/TEENS
ADIRONDACKS.

SO NO BIG CHANGES WITH PACKAGE...JUST MINOR HOURLY TWEAKS.

A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES IN MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL HERKIMER CO...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF SW VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 35-40 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS ONE WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS PREVIOUS SURGES AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS BROAD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CT WITH
BELOW ZERO READINGS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED TO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST THEN HEAD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL  BEGIN WITH CONTINUED COLD WEATHER...BUT A
TREND TOWARDS MORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF SAT
NIGHT...BUT A FEW CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. MINS LOOK
RIGHT AROUND ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESP FOR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
SUNDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN
NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS
COLDER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SET UP...SO PTYPE LOOKS LIKE SNOW FOR
THE WHOLE AREA...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID
20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MON NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON HOW THE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOK TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
THE QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS INITIAL SYSTEM TRACK...AND
IF IT REFORMS OF THE COAST. THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING P-TYPES AND AMOUNTS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
DISAGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AS WELL. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS THAT STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A SOLID AREA OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR...AND IF/WHEN THE PRECIP WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN BETWEEN TUES NIGHT AND WED. THE
00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WOULD
FALL AS SNOW...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A TRANSITION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENT. LATELY...EVENTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER/LESS
QPF AS THEY GET CLOSER IN TIME...SO HAVE GONE WITH A COLDER SOLUTION
AND ONLY MENTION SNOW AT THIS TIME FOR TUES/WED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WHICH
IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR BEING DAY 7-8 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S FOR
TUES/WED...BUT THIS IS ALSO SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
STORM TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH 20Z/WED. A WIND SHIFT WAS
OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT WERE
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UPON REACHING VALLEY AREAS. SO...WILL
INDICATE VCSH THROUGH AROUND 20Z/WED...BUT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KPSF AS THE FRONT PASSES BETWEEN 19Z-20Z/WED.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/THU.
THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z/THU.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 22Z/WED-04Z/THU...LAST AT KALB AND KPSF. EVENTUALLY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUN PM-MON:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO THE START OF WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE
START OF WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1230 PM EST...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE HUDSON
VALLEY BRINING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FLURRIES TO THE
VALLEYS. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WAS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WE ALREADY BUMPED UP
WINDS SO NO CHANGE THERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED AROUND 30 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME
AREAS EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE AT ALL...TOPPING OUT
MAYBE IN THE MID 30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WINS OUT OVER DOWNSLOPING/SUNSHINE...30 MOST OTHER VALLEY
PLACES...FALLING THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/TEENS
ADIRONDACKS.

SO NO BIG CHANGES WITH PACKAGE...JUST MINOR HOURLY TWEAKS.

A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES IN MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL HERKIMER CO...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF SW VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 35-40 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS ONE WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS PREVIOUS SURGES AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS BROAD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CT WITH
BELOW ZERO READINGS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED TO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST THEN HEAD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL  BEGIN WITH CONTINUED COLD WEATHER...BUT A
TREND TOWARDS MORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF SAT
NIGHT...BUT A FEW CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. MINS LOOK
RIGHT AROUND ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESP FOR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
SUNDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN
NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS
COLDER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SET UP...SO PTYPE LOOKS LIKE SNOW FOR
THE WHOLE AREA...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID
20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MON NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON HOW THE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOK TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
THE QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS INITIAL SYSTEM TRACK...AND
IF IT REFORMS OF THE COAST. THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING P-TYPES AND AMOUNTS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
DISAGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AS WELL. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS THAT STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A SOLID AREA OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR...AND IF/WHEN THE PRECIP WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN BETWEEN TUES NIGHT AND WED. THE
00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WOULD
FALL AS SNOW...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A TRANSITION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENT. LATELY...EVENTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER/LESS
QPF AS THEY GET CLOSER IN TIME...SO HAVE GONE WITH A COLDER SOLUTION
AND ONLY MENTION SNOW AT THIS TIME FOR TUES/WED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WHICH
IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR BEING DAY 7-8 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S FOR
TUES/WED...BUT THIS IS ALSO SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
STORM TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH 20Z/WED. A WIND SHIFT WAS
OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT WERE
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UPON REACHING VALLEY AREAS. SO...WILL
INDICATE VCSH THROUGH AROUND 20Z/WED...BUT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KPSF AS THE FRONT PASSES BETWEEN 19Z-20Z/WED.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/THU.
THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z/THU.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 22Z/WED-04Z/THU...LAST AT KALB AND KPSF. EVENTUALLY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUN PM-MON:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO THE START OF WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE
START OF WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1230 PM EST...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE HUDSON
VALLEY BRINING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FLURRIES TO THE
VALLEYS. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WAS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WE ALREADY BUMPED UP
WINDS SO NO CHANGE THERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED AROUND 30 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME
AREAS EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE AT ALL...TOPPING OUT
MAYBE IN THE MID 30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WINS OUT OVER DOWNSLOPING/SUNSHINE...30 MOST OTHER VALLEY
PLACES...FALLING THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/TEENS
ADIRONDACKS.

SO NO BIG CHANGES WITH PACKAGE...JUST MINOR HOURLY TWEAKS.

A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES IN MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL HERKIMER CO...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF SW VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 35-40 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS ONE WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS PREVIOUS SURGES AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS BROAD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CT WITH
BELOW ZERO READINGS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED TO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST THEN HEAD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL  BEGIN WITH CONTINUED COLD WEATHER...BUT A
TREND TOWARDS MORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF SAT
NIGHT...BUT A FEW CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. MINS LOOK
RIGHT AROUND ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESP FOR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
SUNDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN
NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS
COLDER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SET UP...SO PTYPE LOOKS LIKE SNOW FOR
THE WHOLE AREA...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID
20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MON NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON HOW THE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOK TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
THE QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS INITIAL SYSTEM TRACK...AND
IF IT REFORMS OF THE COAST. THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING P-TYPES AND AMOUNTS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
DISAGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AS WELL. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS THAT STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A SOLID AREA OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR...AND IF/WHEN THE PRECIP WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN BETWEEN TUES NIGHT AND WED. THE
00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WOULD
FALL AS SNOW...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A TRANSITION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENT. LATELY...EVENTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER/LESS
QPF AS THEY GET CLOSER IN TIME...SO HAVE GONE WITH A COLDER SOLUTION
AND ONLY MENTION SNOW AT THIS TIME FOR TUES/WED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WHICH
IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR BEING DAY 7-8 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S FOR
TUES/WED...BUT THIS IS ALSO SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
STORM TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH 20Z/WED. A WIND SHIFT WAS
OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT WERE
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UPON REACHING VALLEY AREAS. SO...WILL
INDICATE VCSH THROUGH AROUND 20Z/WED...BUT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KPSF AS THE FRONT PASSES BETWEEN 19Z-20Z/WED.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/THU.
THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z/THU.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 22Z/WED-04Z/THU...LAST AT KALB AND KPSF. EVENTUALLY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUN PM-MON:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO THE START OF WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE
START OF WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1230 PM EST...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE HUDSON
VALLEY BRINING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FLURRIES TO THE
VALLEYS. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WAS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WE ALREADY BUMPED UP
WINDS SO NO CHANGE THERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED AROUND 30 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME
AREAS EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH MORE AT ALL...TOPPING OUT
MAYBE IN THE MID 30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WINS OUT OVER DOWNSLOPING/SUNSHINE...30 MOST OTHER VALLEY
PLACES...FALLING THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/TEENS
ADIRONDACKS.

SO NO BIG CHANGES WITH PACKAGE...JUST MINOR HOURLY TWEAKS.

A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES IN MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL HERKIMER CO...AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF SW VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 35-40 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS ONE WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS PREVIOUS SURGES AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS BROAD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CT WITH
BELOW ZERO READINGS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED TO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST THEN HEAD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL  BEGIN WITH CONTINUED COLD WEATHER...BUT A
TREND TOWARDS MORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF SAT
NIGHT...BUT A FEW CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. MINS LOOK
RIGHT AROUND ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESP FOR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
SUNDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN
NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS
COLDER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SET UP...SO PTYPE LOOKS LIKE SNOW FOR
THE WHOLE AREA...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID
20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MON NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON HOW THE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOK TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
THE QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS INITIAL SYSTEM TRACK...AND
IF IT REFORMS OF THE COAST. THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING P-TYPES AND AMOUNTS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
DISAGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AS WELL. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS THAT STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A SOLID AREA OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR...AND IF/WHEN THE PRECIP WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN BETWEEN TUES NIGHT AND WED. THE
00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WOULD
FALL AS SNOW...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A TRANSITION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENT. LATELY...EVENTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER/LESS
QPF AS THEY GET CLOSER IN TIME...SO HAVE GONE WITH A COLDER SOLUTION
AND ONLY MENTION SNOW AT THIS TIME FOR TUES/WED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WHICH
IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR BEING DAY 7-8 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S FOR
TUES/WED...BUT THIS IS ALSO SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
STORM TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH 20Z/WED. A WIND SHIFT WAS
OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT WERE
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UPON REACHING VALLEY AREAS. SO...WILL
INDICATE VCSH THROUGH AROUND 20Z/WED...BUT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KPSF AS THE FRONT PASSES BETWEEN 19Z-20Z/WED.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/THU.
THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z/THU.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 22Z/WED-04Z/THU...LAST AT KALB AND KPSF. EVENTUALLY...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU PM-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUN PM-MON:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO THE START OF WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251458
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE
START OF WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...THE ARCTIC FRONT WAS CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. SNOW SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
CURRENTLY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION SOUTHWEST INTO THE SYRACUSE/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. IT
APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME SQUALLS MAY EXTEND
INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. THEN...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY THEN EXTEND AND/OR
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ALSO THE
NORTHERN TACONICS...ESP AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF SW VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND
TACONICS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY SPIKE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
VALLEY AREAS...PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
15-20...BEFORE FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 35-40 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS ONE WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS PREVIOUS SURGES AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS BROAD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CT WITH
BELOW ZERO READINGS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED TO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST THEN HEAD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL  BEGIN WITH CONTINUED COLD WEATHER...BUT A
TREND TOWARDS MORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF SAT
NIGHT...BUT A FEW CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. MINS LOOK
RIGHT AROUND ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESP FOR
WESTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
SUNDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN
NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS
COLDER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SET UP...SO PTYPE LOOKS LIKE SNOW FOR
THE WHOLE AREA...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID
20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MON NIGHT...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON HOW THE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOK TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
THE QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS INITIAL SYSTEM TRACK...AND
IF IT REFORMS OF THE COAST. THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING P-TYPES AND AMOUNTS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
DISAGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AS WELL. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS THAT STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A SOLID AREA OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR...AND IF/WHEN THE PRECIP WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN BETWEEN TUES NIGHT AND WED. THE
00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WOULD
FALL AS SNOW...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A TRANSITION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENT. LATELY...EVENTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER/LESS
QPF AS THEY GET CLOSER IN TIME...SO HAVE GONE WITH A COLDER SOLUTION
AND ONLY MENTION SNOW AT THIS TIME FOR TUES/WED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WHICH
IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR BEING DAY 7-8 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S FOR
TUES/WED...BUT THIS IS ALSO SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
STORM TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE STORM/S COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK AND HEADING EASTWARD.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 5
KTS OR LESS.

THE CLIPPER/S COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
AROUND 14Z-15Z. THIS WILL CHANGE THE WIND TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BE WEST AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...MAINLY AT KALB.  WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AROUND...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT.

SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS OF 4-5 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR LATE THIS EVENING. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING. WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION THIS
EVENING...AND DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN AM: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO THE START OF WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251456
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR QUICKLY COMES TO AN END BY 6
AM...BUT COULD LINGER A TAD LONGER ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.
OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY
MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
955 AM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SNE BUT EXPECT SCT-
BKN CU TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MODELS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE 850 MB MOISTURE DEVELOPING BY 18Z. NO CHANGE TO
FORECAST TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND MAY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN REACH THE MID 30S. BUT IT WILL BE A
BLUSTERY DAY AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW TEMPS A BIT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SKIES SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK...TEMPS MAY DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  THEN THEY MAY LEVEL OFF A BIT DEPENDING ON HOW
THICK THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ENDS UP.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W ALONG WITH SUPPRESSED UPPER
LVL JET WILL KEEP STORM WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE IMPACT ON
SRN NEW ENGLAND. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR CAPE COD ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LVL WAVE CATCHES UP AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO BELOW -12C.
TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY SO AS
OTHER DAYS THIS SEASON.

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
TODAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>235-
     237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251456
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR QUICKLY COMES TO AN END BY 6
AM...BUT COULD LINGER A TAD LONGER ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.
OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY
MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
955 AM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SNE BUT EXPECT SCT-
BKN CU TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MODELS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE 850 MB MOISTURE DEVELOPING BY 18Z. NO CHANGE TO
FORECAST TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND MAY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN REACH THE MID 30S. BUT IT WILL BE A
BLUSTERY DAY AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW TEMPS A BIT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SKIES SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK...TEMPS MAY DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  THEN THEY MAY LEVEL OFF A BIT DEPENDING ON HOW
THICK THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ENDS UP.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W ALONG WITH SUPPRESSED UPPER
LVL JET WILL KEEP STORM WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE IMPACT ON
SRN NEW ENGLAND. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR CAPE COD ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LVL WAVE CATCHES UP AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO BELOW -12C.
TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY SO AS
OTHER DAYS THIS SEASON.

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
TODAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>235-
     237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED SKIES TO INDICATE CLR FOR THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH
ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S
ACROSS COASTAL CONNECTICUT...METRO NE NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK
CITY...AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FORCING STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES. THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY AS
WELL...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE. FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING
THE DAY WITH THE SMALL POSSIBILITY THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ABLE TO ADVANCE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MORNING AND RISE INTO THE
TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING ON UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH DIFFERS...AS DOES
TIMING. TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH EITHER FLAT FLOW OR WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND. THEN WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECTS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY...WITH LARGER DIFFERENCES NOTED. THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS.

AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ALL
FORECAST A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA MONDAY...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID WEST TOWARD GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

WHAT THIS MEANS IS MAINLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST...WITH PERHAPS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND SNOW COULD
BECOME A WINTRY MIX...WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT WITH REGARD TO
WAA.

WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY ENDS MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY. AGAIN...DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

TEMPS REMAIN DOWNRIGHT COLD COURTESY OF ARCTIC HIGH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH A COLDER NIGHT LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED LOWS FROM
AROUND ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY.

EXPECTED HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 20S EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. WHILE THIS IS WARMER...IT IS STILL
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT TODAY. WINDS THEN VEER
NW-N DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR DAYTIME. THEN CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA UNTIL
23Z ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 5 FT. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME.

WINDS LIGHTEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SEAS REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK.
SEAS SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS LIGHTEN. FOR THE HARBORS/BAYS AND
SOUND...SEAS/WAVES REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD. MANY AREAS ARE AFFECTED BY ICE AS WELL...AND THIS
CONTINUES AS COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 251452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED SKIES TO INDICATE CLR FOR THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH
ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S
ACROSS COASTAL CONNECTICUT...METRO NE NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK
CITY...AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FORCING STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES. THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY AS
WELL...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE. FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING
THE DAY WITH THE SMALL POSSIBILITY THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ABLE TO ADVANCE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MORNING AND RISE INTO THE
TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING ON UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH DIFFERS...AS DOES
TIMING. TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH EITHER FLAT FLOW OR WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND. THEN WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECTS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY...WITH LARGER DIFFERENCES NOTED. THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS.

AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ALL
FORECAST A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA MONDAY...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID WEST TOWARD GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

WHAT THIS MEANS IS MAINLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST...WITH PERHAPS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND SNOW COULD
BECOME A WINTRY MIX...WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT WITH REGARD TO
WAA.

WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY ENDS MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY. AGAIN...DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

TEMPS REMAIN DOWNRIGHT COLD COURTESY OF ARCTIC HIGH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH A COLDER NIGHT LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED LOWS FROM
AROUND ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY.

EXPECTED HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 20S EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. WHILE THIS IS WARMER...IT IS STILL
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT TODAY. WINDS THEN VEER
NW-N DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR DAYTIME. THEN CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA UNTIL
23Z ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 5 FT. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME.

WINDS LIGHTEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SEAS REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK.
SEAS SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS LIGHTEN. FOR THE HARBORS/BAYS AND
SOUND...SEAS/WAVES REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD. MANY AREAS ARE AFFECTED BY ICE AS WELL...AND THIS
CONTINUES AS COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW










000
FXUS61 KBOX 251223
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR QUICKLY COMES TO AN END BY 6
AM...BUT COULD LINGER A TAD LONGER ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.
OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY
MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 11 AND 12Z.
BETTER LLJ TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SPOTS WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT HAS
LED TO SOME SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A COOL START THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
AS COLD AS YESTERDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS BUT
CAPE/NANTUCKET WHERE SNOW WILL END BY 6 OR NO LATER THAN 7 AM.

SNOW ACCUMS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON IN THE BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS
MAY HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD.  MEANWHILE...THERE
WAS A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE ACCUM SNOW
AND NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES FELL FROM WILLIMANTIC...TO WORCESTER
TO JUST NORTHWEST OF LAWRENCE.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLEAR AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW TEMPS A BIT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SKIES SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK...TEMPS MAY DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  THEN THEY MAY LEVEL OFF A BIT DEPENDING ON HOW
THICK THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ENDS UP.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W ALONG WITH SUPPRESSED UPPER
LVL JET WILL KEEP STORM WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE IMPACT ON
SRN NEW ENGLAND. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR CAPE COD ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LVL WAVE CATCHES UP AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO BELOW -12C.
TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY SO AS
OTHER DAYS THIS SEASON.

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST REMAINING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXIT CAPE/NANTUCKET IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO /13Z/. THEN VFR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT.  W WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022-
     024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251223
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR QUICKLY COMES TO AN END BY 6
AM...BUT COULD LINGER A TAD LONGER ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.
OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY
MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 11 AND 12Z.
BETTER LLJ TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SPOTS WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT HAS
LED TO SOME SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A COOL START THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
AS COLD AS YESTERDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS BUT
CAPE/NANTUCKET WHERE SNOW WILL END BY 6 OR NO LATER THAN 7 AM.

SNOW ACCUMS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON IN THE BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS
MAY HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD.  MEANWHILE...THERE
WAS A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE ACCUM SNOW
AND NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES FELL FROM WILLIMANTIC...TO WORCESTER
TO JUST NORTHWEST OF LAWRENCE.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLEAR AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW TEMPS A BIT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SKIES SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK...TEMPS MAY DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  THEN THEY MAY LEVEL OFF A BIT DEPENDING ON HOW
THICK THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ENDS UP.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W ALONG WITH SUPPRESSED UPPER
LVL JET WILL KEEP STORM WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE IMPACT ON
SRN NEW ENGLAND. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR CAPE COD ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LVL WAVE CATCHES UP AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO BELOW -12C.
TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY SO AS
OTHER DAYS THIS SEASON.

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST REMAINING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXIT CAPE/NANTUCKET IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO /13Z/. THEN VFR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT.  W WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022-
     024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 251141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE
START OF WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COLD IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPED PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS OTHER AREAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THE
SYSTEM SO CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY AROUND 10 DEGREES RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS ONE WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS PREVIOUS SURGES AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS BROAD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CT WITH
BELOW ZERO READINGS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED TO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST THEN HEAD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL  BEGIN WITH CONTINUED COLD WEATHER...BUT A
TREND TOWARDS MORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF SAT
NIGHT...BUT A FEW CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS T