000
FXUS61 KALY 200605
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN...WITH CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...500 HPA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY NW FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO S-SW...SO TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
ON THURSDAY THAN RECENT DAYS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS
WON/T BE AS COOL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE A BIT MORE ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CLOSE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...THERE WON/T BE MUCH
FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
DEWPOINTS STARTING TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...THERE MAY
BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SEEM TO SHOW THE CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT MIGHT BE THE AREA WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
AREAS...AND KEPT POPS LOW ELSEWHERE.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT HAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE ISSUES MOVING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES TROUGHS THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL OSCILLATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. HAVE KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE
WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING SUMMER WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...80S
ARE EVEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TEMPERATURES UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KPSF DUE TO FOG
EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY P6SM SKC AT THE
TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW/SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE CALM UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE...
THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS AFTER 14Z. THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY AM FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING DRY AND
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DEW FORMATION SHOULD
OCCUR EACH NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS
OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 200531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN...WITH CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...500 HPA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY NW FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO S-SW...SO TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
ON THURSDAY THAN RECENT DAYS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS
WON/T BE AS COOL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE A BIT MORE ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CLOSE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...THERE WON/T BE MUCH
FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
DEWPOINTS STARTING TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...THERE MAY
BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SEEM TO SHOW THE CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT MIGHT BE THE AREA WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
AREAS...AND KEPT POPS LOW ELSEWHERE.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT HAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE ISSUES MOVING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES TROUGHS THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL OSCILLATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. HAVE KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE
WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING SUMMER WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...80S
ARE EVEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TEMPERATURES UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS THAT SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VSBYS IN THOSE
TAFS...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR. AFTER
SUNRISE ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY AM FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING DRY AND
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DEW FORMATION SHOULD
OCCUR EACH NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS
OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGIN A TREND TOWARD WARMER
AND MORE HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT AT LEAST A FEW BOUTS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...

STILL SEEING A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. COLUMN LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN WAY OF FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT PATCHY
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND CAPE COD/ISLANDS AS WELL AS INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY THEN SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT
DOWN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND.

AM EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE ONE MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER.  WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL EACH
DAY...THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.
ACTIVITY ON OTHER DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH FRI.

MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...
PRIMARILY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS INTERIOR VALLEYS.
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AROUND 15Z ON BOTH COASTS...THOUGH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON S/SW
FLOW INCREASES ENOUGH THAT IT WILL ERODE E COAST SEA BREEZE.

PATCHY GROUND FOG AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR AGAIN TONIGHT NEAR CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS INTERIOR VALLEYS.

SW FLOW DEVELOPS FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE ONSET 14Z-15Z. EXPECT
IT TO DECAY 21Z-22Z AS SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS UNDERWAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.  SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER MA REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY CT WAS WITHIN 0.5 FT OF
ITS 12 FT FLOOD STAGE WED EVENING. PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC IT
WAS CRESTING AND IS NOT FORECAST TO EXCEED 12 FT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY.  LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
HYDROLOGY...JWD
CLIMATE...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 200527
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
127 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR TRENDS
BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...A DRY
AIRMASS...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM NYC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. LIGHT SW TO VARIABLE WINDS HEADING INTO THE MORNING PUSH. LOCAL
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT KSWF. SEA BREEZES START LATE
MORNING/NOON BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE PASSAGE
COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF NYC. SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 200443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK TONIGHT. UPDATED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR TRENDS
BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...A DRY
AIRMASS...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM NYC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SOUTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES MAY RESULT IN WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KJFK BY MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF NYC. SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 200216
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1016 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...A
SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...A DRY
AIRMASS...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM NYC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SOUTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES MAY RESULT IN WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KJFK BY MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF NYC. SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 200138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...A
SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...A DRY
AIRMASS...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM NYC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SOUTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES MAY RESULT IN WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KJFK BY MID AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WIND THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SE DUE TO APPROACHING SEA BREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF NYC. SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200113
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGIN A TREND TOWARD WARMER
AND MORE HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT AT LEAST A FEW BOUTS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
915 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK. SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS AREA...WHICH WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. COLUMN LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN WAY OF FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY THEN SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT
DOWN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND.

AM EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE ONE MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER.  WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL EACH
DAY...THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.
ACTIVITY ON OTHER DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THU NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR DUE TO PATCHY GROUND
FOG AROUND SUNRISE THU AND AGAIN EARLY FRI AT SOME OF USUAL FOG-
PRONE AIRPORTS /KOWD KTAN KEEN KORE/.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE THU 15Z-20Z
/12008KT/ AND MAY INCLUDE IN 06Z THU TAF IF IT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.  SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER MA REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY CT WAS WITHIN 0.5 FT OF
ITS 12 FT FLOOD STAGE WED EVENING. PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC IT
WAS CRESTING AND IS NOT FORECAST TO EXCEED 12 FT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY.  LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
HYDROLOGY...JWD
CLIMATE...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 192340
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN...WITH CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST TO THE PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

AS OF 423 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
ONTARIO AND WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK
TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
PLACES...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. AWAY FROM BODIES OF WATER...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLD PATCHES OF FROST IN THE ADIRONDACKS...ALTHOUGH
SINCE THIS WILL OCCUR IN UNINHABITED FOREST PRESERVE AREAS OF
NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...NO FROST ADVISORIES ARE NECESSARY.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS AND IN
TYPICAL VALLEY AREAS LATE TONIGHT...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS AND IN
THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...500 HPA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY NW FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO S-SW...SO TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
ON THURSDAY THAN RECENT DAYS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS
WON/T BE AS COOL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE A BIT MORE ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CLOSE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...THERE WON/T BE MUCH
FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
DEWPOINTS STARTING TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...THERE MAY
BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SEEM TO SHOW THE CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT MIGHT BE THE AREA WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
AREAS...AND KEPT POPS LOW ELSEWHERE.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT HAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE ISSUES MOVING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES TROUGHS THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL OSCILLATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. HAVE KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE
WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING SUMMER WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...80S
ARE EVEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TEMPERATURES UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS THAT SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE
THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VSBYS IN THOSE
TAFS...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR. AFTER
SUNRISE ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY AM FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING DRY AND
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DEW FORMATION SHOULD
OCCUR EACH NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS
OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST TO BRING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BETTER IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.  GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THE
URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD SPOTS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY THEN SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT
DOWN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND.

AM EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE ONE MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER.  WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL EACH
DAY...THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.
ACTIVITY ON OTHER DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.  SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY.  LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 192329
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...A
SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL UPDATE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...A
DRY AIRMASS...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN SUNSET AND 9-10 PM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. WEIGHTED LOW TEMPERATURES
HEAVILY ON THE MAV GUIDANCE AND THIS YIELDS READINGS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. NEW YORK CITY SHOULD SEE READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SOUTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES MAY RESULT IN WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KJFK BY MID AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WIND THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SE DUE TO APPROACHING SEA BREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF NYC. SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 192242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
642 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...A
SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL UPDATE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...A
DRY AIRMASS...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN SUNSET AND 9-10 PM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. WEIGHTED LOW TEMPERATURES
HEAVILY ON THE MAV GUIDANCE AND THIS YIELDS READINGS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. NEW YORK CITY SHOULD SEE READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TNGT AND OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N WINDS INTO THIS EVE EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WINDS ALOFT LIGHTEN.
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFT 12Z THU. ENHANCED
FLOW ALONG THE S COASTS AFT 17-19Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY TO
BE AOA 15KT AT KJFK.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 22Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 00Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SEA BREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF THE CITY. SW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS

000
FXUS61 KALY 192049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 423 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 40S FOR MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AWAY FROM BODIES OF
WATER...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD PATCHES OF
FROST IN THE ADIRONDACKS...ALTHOUGH SINCE THIS WILL OCCUR IN
UNINHABITED FOREST PRESERVE AREAS OF NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...NO
FROST ADVISORIES ARE NECESSARY.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS AND IN
TYPICAL VALLEY AREAS LATE TONIGHT...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS AND IN
THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...500 HPA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY NW FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO S-SW...SO TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
ON THURSDAY THAN RECENT DAYS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS
WON/T BE AS COOL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE A BIT MORE ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CLOSE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...THERE WON/T BE MUCH
FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
DEWPOINTS STARTING TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...THERE MAY
BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SEEM TO SHOW THE CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT MIGHT BE THE AREA WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
AREAS...AND KEPT POPS LOW ELSEWHERE.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT HAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE ISSUES MOVING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES TROUGHS THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL OSCILLATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVES TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. HAVE KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE
WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING SUMMER WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...80S
ARE EVEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TEMPERATURES UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SOME RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING OCCURS. WILL MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR. AFTER 13Z...ANY FOG
SHOULD BE GONE AND ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE FEW CLOUDS AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING DRY AND
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DEW FORMATION SHOULD
OCCUR EACH NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS
OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 192034
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
434 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...A
SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ALOFT...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
OVERHEAD.

EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...DRY AIRMASS...AND LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.
WEIGHTED LOW TEMPERATURES HEAVILY ON THE MAV GUIDANCE AND THIS
YIELDS READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. NEW YORK CITY SHOULD SEE
READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TNGT AND OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N WINDS INTO THIS EVE EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WINDS ALOFT LIGHTEN.
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFT 12Z THU. ENHANCED
FLOW ALONG THE S COASTS AFT 17-19Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY TO
BE AOA 15KT AT KJFK.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 22Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 00Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SEA BREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF THE CITY. SW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS

000
FXUS61 KALY 192023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN...WITH CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 423 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 40S FOR MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AWAY FROM BODIES OF
WATER...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD PATCHES OF
FROST IN THE ADIRONDACKS...ALTHOUGH SINCE THIS WILL OCCUR IN
UNINHABITED FOREST PRESERVE AREAS OF NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...NO
FROST ADVISORIES ARE NECESSARY.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS AND IN
TYPICAL VALLEY AREAS LATE TONIGHT...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS AND IN
THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...500 HPA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY NW FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO S-SW...SO TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
ON THURSDAY THAN RECENT DAYS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH MID 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS
WON/T BE AS COOL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE A BIT MORE ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA...BUT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CLOSE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...THERE WON/T BE MUCH
FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
DEWPOINTS STARTING TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...THERE MAY
BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SEEM TO SHOW THE CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT MIGHT BE THE AREA WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
AREAS...AND KEPT POPS LOW ELSEWHERE.

IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SOME RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING OCCURS. WILL MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR. AFTER 13Z...ANY FOG
SHOULD BE GONE AND ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE FEW CLOUDS AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING DRY AND
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DEW FORMATION SHOULD OCCUR EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS
OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE MAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 192004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.  GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THE
URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD SPOTS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY THEN SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT
DOWN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND.

AM EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE ONE MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER.  WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL EACH
DAY...THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.
ACTIVITY ON OTHER DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.  SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY.  LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 192003
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
403 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...A
SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ALOFT...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
OVERHEAD.

EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...DRY AIRMASS...AND LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.
WEIGHTED LOW TEMPERATURES HEAVILY ON THE MAV GUIDANCE AND THIS
YIELDS READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. NEW YORK CITY SHOULD SEE
READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TNGT AND OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N WINDS INTO THIS EVE EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT LIGHTEN.
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFT 12Z THU.
ENHANCED FLOW ALONG THE S COASTS AFT 17-19Z THU...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS LIKELY TO BE AOA 15KT AT KJFK.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 21Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 23Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 00Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 22Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF THE CITY. SW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191953
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.  GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THE
URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD SPOTS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
  * WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
    TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY

BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER FRI/FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY.  LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF RAP ANALYSIS AT H500 INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY
AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 40S. MIXING PROFILES
SUPPORT HIGHS OF MOSTLY 75-80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.

AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TNGT AND OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N WINDS INTO THIS EVE EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT LIGHTEN.
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFT 12Z THU.
ENHANCED FLOW ALONG THE S COASTS AFT 17-19Z THU...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS LIKELY TO BE AOA 15KT AT KJFK.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 21Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 23Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 00Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 22Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF THE CITY. SW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
A NORTHERLY FLOW AT AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE
PREVAIL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

140 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...SO IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
  * WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
    TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY

BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING.  SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER FRI/FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR NANTUCKET SOUND AS WINDS WERE DIMINISHING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTHERN ALTANTIC WATERS FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 191725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...AN APPROACHING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CU HAS
DEVELOPED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS...SRN GREENS...HELDERBERGS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. A
LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND 850 HPA TEMPS OF 4 TO 8 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW
TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FLOW OF AIR AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH OUR
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PATTERN TURN SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED.
KEPT MENTION OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. NOT
MUCH OF A SYNOPTIC TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING...INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY. ANY WEAK IMPULSE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. STORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
PRECIPITATION WIDELY VARYING BASED ON WHICH AREAS HAVE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SOME RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING OCCURS. WILL MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR. AFTER 13Z...ANY FOG
SHOULD BE GONE AND ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE FEW CLOUDS AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 6 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING DRY AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS OF THE PAST
FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191636
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1236 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. LAST SEVERAL HUORS OF RAP ANALYSIS AT H500 INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY
AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 40S. MIXING PROFILES
SUPPORT HIGHS OF MOSTLY 75-80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.

AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SKC TONIGHT.

N-NNE AROUND 10 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT AT KEWR WHICH LIKELY WILL HAVE MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 16-20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
A NORTHERLY FLOW AT AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE
PREVAIL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...JC/LN/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191534
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1134 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

920 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND RESULT IN A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WELL UP INTO THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
  * WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
    TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY

BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

VFR MOST TERMINALS AT 7 AM WITH JUST SOME PATCHY IFR ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING.
GUSTY NNE WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WILL SLACKEN BY MIDDAY
AND THEN WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

ANTICIPATING VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE LIKELY AROUND THE
MIDDAY HOUR.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THU NGT THRU FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR NANTUCKET SOUND AS WINDS WERE DIMINISHING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTHERN ALTANTIC WATERS FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191437
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS/DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER HAS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...A TROUGH
AXIS AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...BUT WITH LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS OF
MOSTLY 75-80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.

AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SKC TONIGHT.

N-NNE AROUND 10 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT AT KEWR WHICH LIKELY WILL HAVE MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 16-20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25
KT DURING THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY FLOW AT
AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS
DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE PREVAIL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...JC/LN/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...JC/LN/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

000
FXUS61 KALY 191412
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES NEEDED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IF ANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIE WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FLOW OF AIR AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH OUR
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PATTERN TURN SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED.
KEPT MENTION OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. NOT
MUCH OF A SYNOPTIC TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING...INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY. ANY WEAK IMPULSE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. STORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
PRECIPITATION WIDELY VARYING BASED ON WHICH AREAS HAVE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SOME RADIATION FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING OCCURS. WILL MENTION
MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING DRY AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS OF THE PAST
FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191356
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS/DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER HAS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...A TROUGH
AXIS AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...BUT WITH LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS OF
MOSTLY 75-80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.

AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SKC TONIGHT.

N-NNE AROUND 10 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT AT KEWR WHICH LIKELY WILL HAVE MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 16-20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25
KT DURING THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY FLOW AT
AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS
DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE PREVAIL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
921 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

920 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND RESULT IN A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WELL UP INTO THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
  * WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
    TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY

BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

VFR MOST TERMINALS AT 7 AM WITH JUST SOME PATCHY IFR ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING.
GUSTY NNE WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WILL SLACKEN BY MIDDAY
AND THEN WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

ANTICIPATING VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE LIKELY AROUND THE
MIDDAY HOUR.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THU NGT THRU FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE WATERS ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE WEST...
WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS RESULTING IN FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS AMPLIFYING WAVES
HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 191112
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS/DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...A TROUGH
AXIS AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...BUT WITH LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS OF
MOSTLY 75-80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.

AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SKC TONIGHT.

N-NNE AROUND 10 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT AT KEWR WHICH LIKELY WILL HAVE MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 16-20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25
KT DURING THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY FLOW AT
AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS
DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE PREVAIL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

000
FXUS61 KBOX 191057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

RAIN HAS NOW MOVED WELL OFFSHORE SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. SO POST FRONTAL CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BUT
STILL EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION AT 7 AM.
FEELS EVEN COOLER OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS COURTSEY OF A BRISK
NNE WIND 15-25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX BY MIDDAY AS LOW PRES
RACES OFFSHORE. AS PGRAD SLACKENS AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY.
INLAND TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY THANKS TO STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 70S. PREVIOUSY DISCUSSION BELOW.
---------------------------------------------------------------
IN WAKE OF THE BROAD FRONTAL DISTURBANCE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS AROUND +7C/ BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. ANTICIPATING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO
AROUND 4-6 KFT. SHOULD SEE THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND
DRIER AIR...WHILE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS /FOLLOWED THROUGH WITH A 50-50 BLEND
OF BIAS- CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
FORECASTED MIX- DOWN OF DRIER AIR/. FASTEST OF WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EARLY IN THE DAY... RELAXING INTO EVENING. HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW TO MID 70S...A FEW LOCAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
  * WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
    TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY

BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

VFR MOST TERMINALS AT 7 AM WITH JUST SOME PATCHY IFR ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING.
GUSTY NNE WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WILL SLACKEN BY MIDDAY
AND THEN WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

ANTICIPATING VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE LIKELY AROUND THE
MIDDAY HOUR.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THU NGT THRU FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE WATERS ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE WEST...
WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS RESULTING IN FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS AMPLIFYING WAVES
HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 191045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING DRY AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 400 PM...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PATCHY FOG IN SOME OTHER AREAS...SKIES HAVE
GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN THE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN
ALL AREAS BY LATER THIS MORNING. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...
THE AIRMASS IS COOL AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIE WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FLOW OF AIR AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH OUR
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PATTERN TURN SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED.
KEPT MENTION OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. NOT
MUCH OF A SYNOPTIC TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING...INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY. ANY WEAK IMPULSE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. STORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
PRECIPITATION WIDELY VARYING BASED ON WHICH AREAS HAVE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SOME RADIATION FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING OCCURS. WILL MENTION
MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING DRY AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS OF THE PAST
FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190847
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS AND
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE
40S THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS OF MOSTLY 75-80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.

AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL TERMINALS LIKELY BECOMING VFR BY 10Z...THOUGH LOW CHANCE THAT
KJFK/KISP/KGON COULD SEE MVFR LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SKC TONIGHT.

N-NNE WINDS 5-10 KT INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
AT KEWR WHICH LIKELY WILL HAVE MORE FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIDDAY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE LIKELY MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON END TIME OF MVFR
THIS MORNING...COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
SEA BREEZE - LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2
HOURS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON END TIME OF MVFR
THIS MORNING...COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SEA BREEZE - LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/-
2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MORE FREQUENT GUSTS EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON END TIME OF MVFR
THIS MORNING...COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SEA BREEZE - LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/-
2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON END TIME OF MVFR
THIS MORNING...COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
SEA BREEZE - LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2
HOURS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING...VFR.
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25
KT DURING THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY FLOW AT
AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS
DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE PREVAIL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

000
FXUS61 KALY 190832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING DRY AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PATCHY FOG IN SOME OTHER AREAS...SKIES HAVE
GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN THE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN
ALL AREAS BY LATER THIS MORNING. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...
THE AIRMASS IS COOL AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIE WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FLOW OF AIR AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH OUR
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PATTERN TURN SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED.
KEPT MENTION OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. NOT
MUCH OF A SYNOPTIC TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING...INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY. ANY WEAK IMPULSE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. STORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
PRECIPITATION WIDELY VARYING BASED ON WHICH AREAS HAVE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION AT
KGFL/KPSF. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRED AT KGFL EARLIER THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER A NORTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPED AND HAS PERSISTED
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS AS THROUGH THE GRADIENT WILL
BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERLY BREEZE TO CONTINUE.
HOWEVER..IF WINDS CAN GO CALM EVEN FOR A SHORT TIME OCCASIONAL FOG
AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. SO WILL MENTION TEMPO
FOR POSSIBLE FOG BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. WINDS REMAIN CALM AT KPSF AND
CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OUT...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION
THERE BEFORE THE NORTHERLY BREEZE COMMENCES. WILL ALSO MENTION A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. KALB/KPOU EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.

ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 10Z...WITH A DRY AIR MASS MOVING
IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME
RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING
OCCURS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10
KT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING DRY AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS OF THE PAST
FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE BROAD TROUGH DISTURBANCE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEHIND WHICH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
DOMINATE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TOWARDS SUNRISE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED. ANY PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN
TO BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE.

TODAY...

CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
SHORELINE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

IN WAKE OF THE BROAD FRONTAL DISTURBANCE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS AROUND +7C/ BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. ANTICIPATING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO
AROUND 4-6 KFT. SHOULD SEE THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND
DRIER AIR...WHILE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS /FOLLOWED THROUGH WITH A 50-50 BLEND
OF BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH FORECASTED
MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR/. FASTEST OF WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY IN
THE DAY... RELAXING INTO EVENING. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW TO MID
70S...A FEW LOCAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

  * TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
  * WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
    TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY

BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS OF CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING...BUT DIFFICULT
TO BE MORE SPECIFIC CONCERNING TIMING. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
NW TO SE...MVFR-IFR CIGS LIFTING VFR...VSBYS IMPROVING INTO
MORNING AND AS LATE AS MIDDAY. OTHERWISE MAY SEE SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...PREVAILING VFR WITH
SCT-BKN CUMULUS AROUND 4-6 KFT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCALES. BUT ANTICIPATING VFR CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE MIDDAY HOURS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THU NGT THRU FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE WATERS ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE WEST...
WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS RESULTING IN FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS AMPLIFYING WAVES
HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:

BOSTON...     47 IN 1918
HARTFORD...   45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER...  37 IN 1926

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ232-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...SIPPRELL

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190713
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
313 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS AND
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE
40S THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS OF MOSTLY 75-80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.

AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR START GIVING WAY TO VFR BY 9-10Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS END TIME KGON/KHPN WHERE LOWER CEILINGS SOMETIMES HANG AROUND
LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

NNE-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT BECOME NNE-N AROUND 10 KT BY THE MORNING
PUSH. KEWR COULD SEE GUSTS TO 15-20 KT AROUND MIDDAY...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AROUND MIDDAY. SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING...VFR.
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25
KT DURING THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY FLOW AT
AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS
DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE PREVAIL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

000
FXUS61 KALY 190544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...ALL PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO
REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION SINCE STLT PICS SHOW
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.

FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION AT
KGFL/KPSF. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRED AT KGFL EARLIER THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER A NORTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPED AND HAS PERSISTED
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS AS THROUGH THE GRADIENT WILL
BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERLY BREEZE TO CONTINUE.
HOWEVER..IF WINDS CAN GO CALM EVEN FOR A SHORT TIME OCCASIONAL FOG
AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. SO WILL MENTION TEMPO
FOR POSSIBLE FOG BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. WINDS REMAIN CALM AT KPSF AND
CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OUT...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION
THERE BEFORE THE NORTHERLY BREEZE COMMENCES. WILL ALSO MENTION A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. KALB/KPOU EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.

ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 10Z...WITH A DRY AIR MASS MOVING
IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME
RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING
OCCURS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10
KT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCCS EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR START GIVING WAY TO VFR BY 9-10Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS END TIME KGON/KHPN WHERE LOWER CEILINGS SOMETIMES HANG AROUND
LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

NNE-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT BECOME NNE-N AROUND 10 KT BY THE MORNING
PUSH. KEWR COULD SEE GUSTS TO 15-20 KT AROUND MIDDAY...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AROUND MIDDAY. SEABREEZE
EXPECTED MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING...VFR.
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/24
NEAR TERM...JC/DW/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/DS/24
HYDROLOGY...DS/24

000
FXUS61 KALY 190538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...ALL PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO
REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION SINCE STLT PICS SHOW
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.

FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW IS MOVING MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT
TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LINGERS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY OTHERWISE
IT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. IFR FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED AT KGFL AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR/NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT
KPSF AND KPOU OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED AT KPSF. AT
KALB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE  BL LATE NIGHT
FOG AT KGFL/KPSF. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCCS EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS
WAKE...MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STRATUS/BR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CIGS
WILL DROP AS LOW AS 600 FT AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WHILE 800 FT
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL DROP TO
1500 FT OR SO. VFR RETURNS BETWEEN 10-12Z...THEN VFR ON TAP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY 10Z...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z
TO 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24/DS/NV/JC
HYDROLOGY...24/DS

000
FXUS61 KALY 190245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...SHOWER ACTIVITY ONLY LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTH OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RADIATIONAL FOG HAS DEVELOPED ON KGFL ALREADY
SO HAVE EXPANDED THE TIME HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED FOR OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

AS OF 815 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES
ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
AT NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUND.

AS OF 415 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE NYS AND WESTERN CT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND DUTCHESS CO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN CAST CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS...OR ANY
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

FURTHER NORTH...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN...AND
WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS TO AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE
CO...WEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH HIGH CHC FURTHER S AND
E. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS FAR SE AREAS FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS TO
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE LATER TONIGHT. FOR MIN TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...ESP GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND ALSO WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.

FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW IS MOVING MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT
TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LINGERS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY OTHERWISE
IT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. IFR FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED AT KGFL AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR/NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT
KPSF AND KPOU OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED AT KPSF. AT
KALB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE  BL LATE NIGHT
FOG AT KGFL/KPSF. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA HAS ALLOWED THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
JUST SOUTH OF THE LI. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN LI AND SRN CT...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST...AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BECOME NORTHERLY.

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. GUIDANCE WAS
VERY CLOSE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST
IT AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCC`S EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS
WAKE...MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STRATUS/BR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CIGS
WILL DROP AS LOW AS 600 FT AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WHILE 800 FT
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL DROP TO
1500 FT OR SO. VFR RETURNS BETWEEN 10-12Z...THEN VFR ON TAP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY 10Z...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z
TO 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT...NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAY SEE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NIGHT AND
CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT,

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/DS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190231
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1031 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE SOUTH AND EAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE /INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE
ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NY/ ROTATES AROUND THE LOW CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER BY MORNING.

OF CONSIDERABLE NOTE IS THE LINE OF SHOWERS RE-EMERGING ALONG A
LINE FROM COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE BACK INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
OF NY. THIS IS LIKELY THE H85 FRONT LOCATED ABOVE THE INVERSION
PER 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVELS IS LIKELY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT IN A REGION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES /COLD POOL EVIDENT AT THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE
INVERSION TO AROUND H6 PER 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING/. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR ANY THUNDER...AND FEEL WHAT GOES UP WILL QUICKLY GO DOWN. ANY
CELLS SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN FOR LONG.

FEEL THE FLOODING THREAT HAS DISSIPATED AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACCORDINGLY. WEATHER FORECAST GRIDS HAVE
ARE AMENDED ACCORDINGLY. WORST OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

A SECONDARY CONCERN IS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG. AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH WEAK WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLEARING...THE
EXPECTED COOLING COUPLED WITH ANTECEDANT RAINS FROM EARLIER TODAY
MAKING A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE MORESO THAN HIGH-RES
MODELS CAN INFER WILL YIELD FOG ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS.  WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY.  WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS N
MA/S NH...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH
PATCHY FOG. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER
SHOWER MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.

AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WFO STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA HAS ALLOWED THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
JUST SOUTH OF THE LI. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN LI AND SRN CT...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST...AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BECOME NORTHERLY.

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. GUIDANCE WAS
VERY CLOSE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST
IT AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCC`S EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF LONG ISLAND TO NYC WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY 03Z.
WINDS WILL VARY FROM NW TO S UNTIL THEN...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS BRIEFLY SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTH...AND THEN WINDS
BACKED TO THE S. WILL GENERALLY EXPECT VRB WINDS AROUND 5 KT UNTIL
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...AND THEN WINDS BECOME N/NE AT 8-10 KT.

BOTH BUFKIT AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING AS
WELL THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND NE WINDS SHOULD BRING THOSE CLOUDS
DOWN INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND BRING MVFR CONDS TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02-05Z. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDS AT
KHPN/KGON.

N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY 10Z...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z
TO 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS FM 02-12Z. WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH POSSIBLE BY 20-22Z WEDNESDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS FM 02-12Z. WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH POSSIBLE AFT 22Z WEDNESDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS FM 02-10Z. WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH POSSIBLE AFT 22Z WEDNESDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS FM 02-10Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CONDS THROUGH 12Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CONDS FM 02-12Z. WIND
SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH POSSIBLE BY 20Z

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT...NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAY SEE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NIGHT AND
CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT,

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 190015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
815 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES
ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
AT NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUND.

AS OF 415 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE NYS AND WESTERN CT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND DUTCHESS CO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN CAST CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS...OR ANY
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

FURTHER NORTH...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN...AND
WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS TO AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE
CO...WEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH HIGH CHC FURTHER S AND
E. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS FAR SE AREAS FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS TO
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE LATER TONIGHT. FOR MIN TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...ESP GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND ALSO WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.

FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PRESSES SOUTHWARD...WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT TO
SEA OVERNIGHT TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND WET GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT KPSF AND KPOU OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT AT KPSF. AT KALB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE A
PERIOD OVERNIGHT. AT KGFL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED T DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE  BL LATE NIGHT
FOG AT KGFL/KPSF. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM/IAA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 182345
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AT 22Z...OBS INDICATED COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING IN A LINE FROM
JUST S OF THE CT COAST TO JUST N OF KTEB/KCDW. SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERED A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS AND HAS TRANSITIONED TO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. RRQ OF UPPER
JET HAS CAUSED ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE JET LIFT TO THE NE.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND TRENDS THIS EVE WITH A DECREASING TREND OVERNIGHT. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO T/TD/WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBS...TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE.

GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCC`S EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF LONG ISLAND TO NYC WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY 03Z.
WINDS WILL VARY FROM NW TO S UNTIL THEN...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS BRIEFLY SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTH...AND THEN WINDS
BACKED TO THE S. WILL GENERALLY EXPECT VRB WINDS AROUND 5 KT UNTIL
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...AND THEN WINDS BECOME N/NE AT 8-10 KT.

BOTH BUFKIT AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING AS
WELL THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND NE WINDS SHOULD BRING THOSE CLOUDS
DOWN INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND BRING MVFR CONDS TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02-05Z. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDS AT
KHPN/KGON.

N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY 10Z...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z
TO 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS FM 02-12Z. WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH POSSIBLE BY 20-22Z WEDNESDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS FM 02-12Z. WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH POSSIBLE AFT 22Z WEDNESDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS FM 02-10Z. WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH POSSIBLE AFT 22Z WEDNESDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS FM 02-10Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CONDS THROUGH 12Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CONDS FM 02-12Z. WIND
SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH POSSIBLE BY 20Z

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAY SEE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 INCH OF
RAINFALL TONIGHT...HIGHEST OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED AND
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY ADDITIONAL ISSUES TONIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/DS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 182331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WHICH IS IN A LINE ROUGHLY FROM NASHUA NEW HAMPSHIRE TO
WESTFIELD MASS. THE BEST PWATS ARE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA MORE
IN LINE WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OUT OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FLOODING WITH THEM. AS MENTIONED...THERE IS QUITE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
BLOCK ISLAND AND NANTUCKET. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NANTUCKET THROUGH THE EVENING.

HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL THOUGH THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.

WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS.  WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY.  WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS N
MA/S NH...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH
PATCHY FOG. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER
SHOWER MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.

AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KOKX 182303 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
703 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AT 22Z...OBS INDICATED COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING IN A LINE FROM
JUST S OF THE CT COAST TO JUST N OF KTEB/KCDW. SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERED A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS AND HAS TRANSITIONED TO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. RRQ OF UPPER
JET HAS CAUSED ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE JET LIFT TO THE NE.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND TRENDS THIS EVE WITH A DECREASING TREND OVERNIGHT. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO T/TD/WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBS...TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE.

GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCC`S EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT. BRIEF MARGINAL VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z TO 15Z. NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUES DURING WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 20Z TO 23Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 22Z TO 01Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAY SEE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 INCH OF
RAINFALL TONIGHT...HIGHEST OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED AND
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY ADDITIONAL ISSUES TONIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KOKX 182300
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
700 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AT 22Z...OBS INDICATED COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING IN A LINE FROM
JUST S OF THE CT COAST TO JUST N OF KTEB/KCDW. SCT SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERED A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS AND HAS TRANSITIONED TO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. RRQ OF UPPER
JET HAS CAUSED ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE JET LIFT TO THE NE.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND TRENDS THIS EVE WITH A DECREASING TREND OVERNIGHT. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO T/TD/WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBS...TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE.

GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCC`S EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT. BRIEF MARGINAL VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z TO 15Z. NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUES DURING WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 20Z TO 23Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 22Z TO 01Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAY SEE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 INCH OF
RAINFALL TONIGHT...HIGHEST OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED AND
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY ADDITIONAL ISSUES TONIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 182210
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...DROPPING
HARTFORD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT AND ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT
PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THESE AREAS...OR DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY. FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...

LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.

NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.

WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS.  WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY.  WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.

AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 182134
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
534 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
     THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...

LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.

NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.

WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS.  WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY.  WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.

AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
     011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 182037
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...

LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.

NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.

WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS.  WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY.  WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.

AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
     011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 182016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. OUR WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE NYS AND WESTERN CT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND DUTCHESS CO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN CAST CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS...OR ANY
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

FURTHER NORTH...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN...AND
WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS TO AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE
CO...WEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH HIGH CHC FURTHER S AND
E. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS FAR SE AREAS FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS TO
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE LATER TONIGHT. FOR MIN TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS...ESP GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND ALSO WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.

FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE EXITED THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS...AND SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
KPOU AFTER 20Z.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CORE OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL AFFECT KPOU SO INDICATING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.  SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER
SHOWERS IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS AND PUTTING VCSH FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE LIGHTER SHOWERS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT AS WELL WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG FORMATION. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KPOU.
WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND NORTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...MAINLY SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. THIS COULD LEAD
TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET WEATHER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 182011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING WITH THE OUR CWA NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE COMBINED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION...STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

AS THE FRONT AND SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH...THERE SHOULD
BE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE OF AN MARINE
INFLUENCE NEAR THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASING THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...FROM RAIN COOLED AIR...AND
THE FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THE BEST LIFT WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 03Z AND
JUST SLIGHT/CHC SHOWERS THROUGH 08Z.

GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND SEE NO REASON TO
GO AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCC`S EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT. BRIEF MARGINAL VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z TO 15Z. NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUES DURING WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 20Z TO 23Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 22Z TO 01Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAY SEE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF INCH OF BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/DS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 181941
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RECEIVED A
REPORT OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN WESTMINSTER MA
/NORTHERN WORCESTER CTY/ FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

AS THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFT S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND HIGHER PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES/...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COULD SEE
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. BIG
CONCERN WITH IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
  FLOODING***

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.

PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA.  MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE.  MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
  * HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
  * HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
  * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL.  WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS.  WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY.  WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS ACROSS N MA/S NH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO CENTRAL/S MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
     011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 181818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
218 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RECEIVED A
REPORT OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN WESTMINSTER MA
/NORTHERN WORCESTER CTY/ FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

AS THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFT S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND HIGHER PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES/...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COULD SEE
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. BIG
CONCERN WITH IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
  FLOODING***

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.

PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA.  MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE.  MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON

00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.

FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.

BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS ACROSS N MA/S NH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO CENTRAL/S MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
     011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
154 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA. A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING WITH THE OUR CWA NEAR THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE
CONDITIONS HAVE COMBINED TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS 16Z SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND UP
TO 1000 J/KG FURTHER EAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS NE NJ IS FROM ABOUT 0.7 TO 1
INCHES. IN ADDITION...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN LATEST UPDATE DUE TO SOME
OF THE CLEARING SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED AT THE COAST. HOWEVER...HIGHS FOR THE DAY
HAVE LIKELY BEEN REACHED AS CLOUD COVER IS FILLING BACK IN AND
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...MOVING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH LIFT...CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ONLY FOR
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN SPOTS. IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FRI AND
SAT AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION AND THE AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 19Z THROUGH 01Z.
THE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT. BRIEF MARGINAL VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOWER LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT AND NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH SO NOT EXPECTING STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SOME GUSTS 10Z TO 15Z BUT CONFIDENCE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW.



     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE GUSTY WIND WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE GUSTY WIND WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE GUSTY WIND WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE GUSTY WIND WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 20Z TO 23Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE GUSTY WIND WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD
GUST TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD
BE FOR ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

000
FXUS61 KALY 181729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD...NOW APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. TEMPS
TO THE NORTH HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S
WITHIN POCKETS OF RAIN COOLED AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.

NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 80 IN VALLEYS AND 70S
ELSEWHERE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS NW CT/SW MA AND THE SE
CATSKILLS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 40-45 KT IN THIS
REGION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER...ALONG WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO
INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WITHIN TSTMS. WILL STILL
HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT FOR ANY POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD CO
CT...AS THE SFC FRONT POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH AN INCOMING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...THIS MAY ACT TO SLOW
DOWN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. PONDING OF WATER
IN LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS COULD EASILY OCCUR WHERE
TRAINING ECHOES DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS
NORTH...BUT REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX
TEMPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL GIVEN THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPS MAY STILL RISE 3-5
DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY AROUND 21Z IF SOME THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS CAN OCCUR FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL GENERALLY ONLY RECOVER
INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN SOME VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...EXPECT CURRENT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO AND THROUGH THE 70S...AND PERHAPS INTO THE 60S
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE EXITED THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS...AND SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
KPOU AFTER 20Z.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CORE OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL AFFECT KPOU SO INDICATING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.  SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER
SHOWERS IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF AREAS AND PUTTING VCSH FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE LIGHTER SHOWERS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED LATER TONIGHT AS WELL WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG FORMATION. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KPOU.
WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND NORTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW

OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181713
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
113 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA. A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING WITH THE OUR CWA NEAR THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE
CONDITIONS HAVE COMBINED TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS 16Z SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND UP
TO 1000 J/KG FURTHER EAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS NE NJ IS FROM ABOUT 0.7 TO 1
INCHES. IN ADDITION...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN LATEST UPDATE DUE TO SOME
OF THE CLEARING SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED AT THE COAST. HOWEVER...HIGHS FOR THE DAY
HAVE LIKELY BEEN REACHED AS CLOUD COVER IS FILLING BACK IN AND
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...MOVING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH LIFT...CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ONLY FOR
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN SPOTS. IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FRI AND
SAT AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION AND THE AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT.

VFR. CONTINUING WITH THE TEMPO FOR -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SPECIFYING
A 4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD THUNDER WILL BE...SO START TIME IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW CELLS THAT
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF THEY FORM...SO HAVE GUSTS UP
TO 40KT IN THE TEMPO.

STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 23-03Z FROM W TO E...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS/FOG
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH...EXCEPT AT
KISP AND KGON TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION IS KLGA WHICH CURRENTLY HAS A SOUND BREEZE. WIND SHOULD
SWITCH TO SOUTH AROUND 18Z AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH. AT ALL
THE TERMINALS THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN JUST
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION AT ALL EXCEPT KGON/KISP/KJFK...WHERE THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE POST CONVECTION. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WINDS BECOME NNE- NE AT 5-10KT...THEN INCREASE LATE OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT AT ALL BUT KSWF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF NE
WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME
OF ANY -TSRA.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR. NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD
GUST TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD
BE FOR ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

000
FXUS61 KALY 181450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS IN THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME HEATING IN SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...BUT NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY
SO NO SEVERE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AND WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SO SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIX
COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG STILL OCCURRING AT KPSF WITH VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS.
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND TEMPOS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 17Z-18Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
THERE. BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND
ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO PART OF THE
EVENING FOR KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181442
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE REGION AND THIS
COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND THERE WILL ADDITIONAL LIFT COURTESY OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND FROM BEING NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK.

SPC HIGH RESOLUTION STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE INDICATES
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 40 DBZ INCREASING UP TO 80
PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES FURTHER EAST BUT STILL GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...PUSHED UP THE TIMING OF LIKELY
POPS AND ALSO EXTENDED THEM FURTHER EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CAPE VALUES WILL PROBABLY REACH 1000-1500 J/KG...GENERALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST...BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH A BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT...BRINGS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCHED FOR ANY URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WITH A FEW SLIGHT LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED FOR
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...MOVING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH LIFT...CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ONLY FOR
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN SPOTS. IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FRI AND
SAT AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION AND THE AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT.

VFR. CONTINUING WITH THE TEMPO FOR -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SPECIFYING
A 4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD THUNDER WILL BE...SO START TIME IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW CELLS THAT
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF THEY FORM...SO HAVE GUSTS UP
TO 40KT IN THE TEMPO.

STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 23-03Z FROM W TO E...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS/FOG
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH...EXCEPT AT
KISP AND KGON TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION IS KLGA WHICH CURRENTLY HAS A SOUND BREEZE. WIND SHOULD
SWITCH TO SOUTH AROUND 18Z AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH. AT ALL
THE TERMINALS THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN JUST
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION AT ALL EXCEPT KGON/KISP/KJFK...WHERE THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE POST CONVECTION. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WINDS BECOME NNE- NE AT 5-10KT...THEN INCREASE LATE OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT AT ALL BUT KSWF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF NE
WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME
OF ANY -TSRA.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR. NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD
GUST TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD
BE FOR ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 181329
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM UPDATE...

***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
  FLOODING***

A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WERE IN PLACE AT MID MORNING
TO THE NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME PEEKS OF
SUN.  TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...THERE WAS A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.

PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA.  MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE.  MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.

SO AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT WILL REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON

00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.

FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.

BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR
VALLEY TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE.
THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY
INTO EVENING. ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WITH +RA/TSRA.

VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 181144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND APPROACHING VORT FROM THE DELMARVA COULD ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING. TOUGH TO PICK OUT
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS MORNING. IF
CONVECTION DOES FIRE...BASED ON STEERING FLOW WOULD HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ISSUES.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THEIR CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAS ADDITIONAL LIFT
COURTESY OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PERHAPS THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME LIFT FROM BEING NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK.

CAPE VALUES PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS
STEEP AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. BUT WITH CAPES AWAY FROM THE COAST
STILL IN THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH A BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WITH A FEW SLIGHT LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED FOR
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...MOVING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH LIFT...CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ONLY FOR
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN SPOTS. IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FRI AND
SAT AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION AND THE AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT

VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR HZ AT NORTHERN TERMINALS 10-16Z TIME FRAME...PATCHY MVFR FOG
AT KJFK THROUGH 14Z...AND ISOLATED IFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH 14Z.

HAVE A TEMPO FOR -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON - SPECIFYING A 4 HOUR WINDOW
WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THUNDER WILL BE - SO START TIME IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW CELLS THAT DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF THEY FORM...SO HAVE GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN
THE TEMPO.

STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 23-03Z FROM W TO E...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS/FOG
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH...EXCEPT AT
KISP AND KGON TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALL DAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT AT KLGA WHERE NE SOUND BREEZE ALREADY IN PLACE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SE-S
UNDER 10 KT AT CT/NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION AT ALL EXCEPT KGON/KISP/KJFK...WHERE THE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE POST CONVECTION. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS
BECOME NNE- NE AT 5-10KT...THEN INCREASE LATE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND
10KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT AT ALL BUT KSWF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON END TIME OF MVFR
THIS MORNING...COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
END TIME OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF NE
WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END
TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA. LOW-MODERATE CHANCE OF HAZE THIS MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON END TIME OF IFR THIS
MORNING...COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END
TIME OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR. NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD
GUST TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD
BE FOR ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

000
FXUS61 KALY 181125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING TO MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ELSE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG STILL OCCURRING AT KPSF WITH VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS.
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND TEMPOS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 17Z-18Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
THERE. BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND
ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO PART OF THE
EVENING FOR KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 181107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

MILD MORNING IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE SUN AT 7 AM AND THIS
WILL LIKELY HOLD OUR TEMPS IN THE M70S TODAY...ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS INSTABILITY AND
THUS A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH
00Z ECMWF AND 03Z SREF ONLY OFFER 500-1000J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCH LESS THAN THE 1500-2000J/KG FROM MON AFTN. DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND
INTERIOR MA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO FIRE ON...HOWEVER NEW
GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 21Z-03Z ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE PWATS INCREASE TO +1 TO +2 STD
FROM CLIMO. THUS ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN
THE TIMEFRAME HERE 21Z-03Z COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY COMMUTE.

SO DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THE LACK OF SB INSTABILITY
SUGGEST A LOWER RISK TODAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS THINKING LINES UP NICELY WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
WITH JUST GENERAL THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ERODE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO REMOVE TSTMS THIS MORNING AND CONFINE TO
AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

TODAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER COLD POOL WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RENEW.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT...BULK SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED WITH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT INDICATING FAVORABILITY TO LINE RATHER THAN DISCREET
THUNDERSTORMS /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY/. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION OF TURNING WITHIN 0-3 KM...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE 0Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING IS INDICATIVE OF A PRIME ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND H9 UP TO H6.

BUT THE OUTCOMES LOOK RATHER MESSY. THE POTENTIAL EARLY INITIATION
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AS INDICATED BY THE 18.0Z WRF AND 18.04Z HRRR/RUC
SUGGEST LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LESS DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECTING MULTI-CELLULAR AND LINE-ECHO
WAVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINERS UTILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.

FEEL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SURELY TO BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HAZARDOUS FOR MOTORISTS. EVENING
COMMUTE WILL BE UNDER GREATEST THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL APPEND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 2
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON

00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.

FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.

BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR
VALLEY TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE.
THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY
INTO EVENING. ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WITH +RA/TSRA.

VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...SIPPRELL

000
FXUS61 KALY 181001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING TO MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ELSE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...T
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL

000
FXUS61 KOKX 180847
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH THEN SAGS DOWN
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND SOME WESTERN
ZONES HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THEIR CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAS ADDITIONAL LIFT COURTESY OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PERHAPS THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIFT FROM BEING
NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

CAPE VALUES PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS
STEEP AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. BUT WITH CAPES AWAY FROM THE COAST
STILL IN THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH A BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WITH A FEW SLIGHT LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED FOR
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...MOVING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH LIFT...CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ONLY FOR
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN SPOTS. IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH
AFT/EVE...MAINLY OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION AND THE AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR HZ AT NORTHERN TERMINALS 10-16Z TIME FRAME AND ISOLATED IFR
CEILINGS AT CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

HAVE A PROB30 FOR -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON - SPECIFYING A 4 HOUR
WINDOW WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
THUNDER WILL BE - SO ONLY HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR PROB30 AT
THIS TIME. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
IF THEY FORM...SO HAVE GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN THE PROB30.

STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 23-02Z FROM W TO E...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS/FOG
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...GIVE WAY TO ESE-SE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
THIS MORNING. EXCEPTION IS KLGA WHERE NE-ENE SOUND BREEZE HAS
ALREADY SET-UP. WINDS BECOME SE-S THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF NE
WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END
TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA. VERY LOW CHANCE OF HAZE THIS MORNING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA. VERY LOW CHANCE OF HAZE THIS MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA. LOW-MODERATE CHANCE OF HAZE THIS MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. NE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD GUST TO
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD BE FOR
ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
LATE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

000
FXUS61 KALY 180846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL

000
FXUS61 KBOX 180805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME PROBLEMATIC. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF WITH
SUNRISE.

TODAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER COLD POOL WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RENEW.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT...BULK SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED WITH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT INDICATING FAVORABILITY TO LINE RATHER THAN DISCREET
THUNDERSTORMS /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY/. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION OF TURNING WITHIN 0-3 KM...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE 0Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING IS INDICATIVE OF A PRIME ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND H9 UP TO H6.

BUT THE OUTCOMES LOOK RATHER MESSY. THE POTENTIAL EARLY INITIATION
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AS INDICATED BY THE 18.0Z WRF AND 18.04Z HRRR/RUC
SUGGEST LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LESS DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECTING MULTI-CELLULAR AND LINE-ECHO
WAVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINERS UTILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.

FEEL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SURELY TO BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HAZARDOUS FOR MOTORISTS. EVENING
COMMUTE WILL BE UNDER GREATEST THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL APPEND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 2
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY...

COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON

00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.

FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.

BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR VALLEY
TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE. THEN ATTENTION
FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY INTO EVENING.
ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH +RA/TSRA.

VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF

000
FXUS61 KOKX 180729
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH THEN SAGS DOWN
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND SOME WESTERN
ZONES HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THEIR CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAS ADDITIONAL LIFT COURTESY OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PERHAPS THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIFT FROM BEING
NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

CAPE VALUES PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS
STEEP AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. BUT WITH CAPES AWAY FROM THE COAST
STILL IN THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH A BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WITH A FEW SLIGHT LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED FOR
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...MOVING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH LIFT...CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ONLY FOR
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN SPOTS. IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH
AFT/EVE...MAINLY OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION AND THE AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR HZ OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS 9-16Z TIME FRAME...WITH BEST
CHANCE NORTHERN/CT TERMINALS.

HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON - SPECIFYING A 4
HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD THUNDER WILL BE - SO ONLY HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR PROB30 AT THIS TIME. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF THEY FORM...SO HAVE GUSTS UP TO 40KT
IN THE PROB30.

STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 23-02Z FROM W TO E...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS/FOG
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...GIVE WAY TO ESE-SE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT NE KLGA...THEN BECOME SE-S THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. NE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD GUST TO
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD BE FOR
ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MAINLY SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
LATE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV