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000
FXUS61 KLWX 191917
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION`S WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. NEXT UP IS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

HIGH CLOUDS HUNG ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS
TAIL END OF UPPER JET EXITING NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER SE US TO GIVE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT IN UPPER LEVELS.
THIS CIRRIUS BKN-OVC SKY COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NE
WIND FLOW 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LOSE THE
GUSTINESS IN IN THE UPPER TEENS AS WE`VE SEEN ON INLAND LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COUPLED AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF
SREF AND NAM FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO START EASTER SUNDAY BUT DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY.  SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS
ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OUR AREA RECEIVES A DEEP
LLVL MARINE/NE INFLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.  TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT DIRECTLY ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE WHERE THEY`LL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

NOTHING MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR SUN NIGHT AS MARINE FLOW CONTINUES.
NIGHTTIME MINS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE FLIRTING ONCE AGAIN WITH FROST
ADVISORIES AS DRYER AIR WORKS IN AND CALMER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHERN JET STREAM GETS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED BETWEEN MON AND TUE.
WE START WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST MONDAY
MORNING. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM 500MB TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE
NE AND BRING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AS TO TIMING AND HOW QUICKLY
IT WILL PASS THRU. WENT WITH THE SREF ENSEMBLE FOR POPS AND CLOUDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DIFFS. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVE THRU THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOW QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR IS
IN QUESTION...PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE LIFTING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE OFFSHORE. FOR TEMPS RELIED ON THE
BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND BIAS CORRECTED ADJUSTED NAM MOS...BOTH OF
WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING WELL RECENTLY.

SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAVE A LOT OF
RAIN...FORECAST IS FOR 0.15 TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT A SMALL AMOUNT OF FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM EMBEDDED WITH THE SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN
HALF WHICH COULD BOOST RAINFALL IN TARGETED AREAS IF IT COMES TO
PASS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PRECIP WILL EXIT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUES AS
COOL DRY AIR FILLS IN IN BREEZY NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNRISE ON WED AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK VORT MAX MAY LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT EVERYWHERE WILL STAY DRY. MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUES...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN OVER THE AREA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
WED AND THURS WILL BE A COOL BUT PLEASANT SPRING DAY. LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE NEAR 40 WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 60S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON THURS NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE
WARMING IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FOR THE DAY ON FRI AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE EURO BRINGING RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY FRI AND THE GFS KEEPING US WARM AND DRY DURING
THE DAY BUT WET OVERNIGHT ON FRI. LARGE SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS JUSTIFIED KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND NIGHT ON FRI AND INTO SAT. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL DETERMINE HIGHS SAT...BUT FAVORING SLOWER PROGRESSION OF FRONT
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SLIGHT COOLER THAN FRI...MID 70S FRI AND LOWER
70S SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMS THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH WIND GENERALLY
03008KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LARGELY VFR ON TUE
AS WELL BUT IFR POSSIBLE FOR FEW HOURS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINGERING LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

THRESHOLD SCA LATE TONIGHT ON BIG WATER OF OUR MARINE ZONES...THEN
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TO HAVE SCA CONDITIONS FROM 8 AM
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  AGAIN BIG WATER WILL CONTINUE SCA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SE US SFC LOW MAKES IT WAY
OFFSHORE.

WIND SHIFT ON TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT NO HAZARDS DURING THAT
TIME.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN BREEZY POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...CAS/CEB
AVIATION...LEE/CAS/CEB
MARINE...LEE/CAS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191331
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE REGION`S WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS GRADIENT OVER REGION
WITH SCT-TO-BKN-TO-OVC FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH. KNHK HAS BKN MID DECK
AND EXPECTING THAT TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
MD PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. USING GFS
LAYER H5-H3 RH AS A PROXY FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECTING ERODING
TREND FOR HIGH CLOUDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN MD AND LOWER BAY MARINE ZONE.

NOT EXPECTING PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN ACROSS SE VA/NC
TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN IT CURRENTLY IS...AS STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW WILL PREVENT NORTHWARD PUSH. ENTIRE CWA WILL
BE PRECIP FREE TODAY...WITH LIGHT N/NE WIND FLOW.

ADJUSTED TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE
INCLUDING CITY OF BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS AS NE FLOW OVER THE 50F
BAY TO INHIBIT HEATING ABOVE 60F. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO HIT MID60S THROUGHOUT CWA DESPITE THE CHILL START OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE SERN LOW WL MOVE OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT IS NOT XPCTD TO BE A
PLAYER IN MID ATLC WX. AGN HIGH PRES TO THE N WL BE FILTERING IN
TO THE RGN...BRINGING CLR SKIES AND GOOD RAD CONDS. ATTM MDLS ARE
FCSTG A40 BUT FEEL W/ THIS SET UP TEMPS COULD DROP LOWER AWAY FM
THE CITIES. W OF I-95 TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE U30S - IF DAYSHIFT FEELS
TEMPS COULD GO A LTL LOWER A FROST ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED BUT AM
GOING TO ALLOW THE LATER SHIFT TO MAKE THAT DETERMINATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
`TIS THE SEASON FOR CUT-OFF UPPER LOWS. WITH THE JET STREAM
RETREATING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH BUT STILL HANGING AROUND THE
US/CANADA BORDER...ENOUGH ENERGY EXISTS IN THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES
FOR SOME TO `BREAK OFF` AND HOVER FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OFF THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SQUEEZE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
STRETCHING DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE MID-ATLC...KEEPING THE
TEMPS/HUMIDITY MODERATED W/ HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE L/M60S.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE ELY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

ON MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS INITIALLY ASSOCIATED W/ AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL GET PULLED BACK INTO THE FASTER UPPER
FLOW. BY LATE MON...THE BETTER ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE WILL BE
STRETCHED OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS WHILE THE MID
ATLC RECEIVES ANOTHER DAY OF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WX. THE ELY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DROP OFF AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE SLY...ALLOWING
THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION TO WARM-UP INTO THE L70S WHILE THE ERN
HALF ENDS UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MOST MED RANGE
MEMBERS SHOWING THIS...ESPEC THE GFS. THE BIAS-CORRECTED VERSIONS OF
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH A FEW DEG WARMER OVERALL THAN THEIR
DETERMINISTIC PARENT - SO MORE OF A BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

A DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION REGION WILL BE PUSHING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM THE OHIO VLY TOWARD THE APLCNS EARLY TUE. THE SFC LOW WILL GAIN
SOME STRENGTH ON TUE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DYNAMICS W/ IT TO THE NORTHEAST - AT
LEAST INITIALLY. THOUGH THE NAM`S CURRENT CYCLE ENDS EARLY
TUE...COMPARING THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FEATURES TO
THE GFS AND EURO SHOWS A WEAKER FEATURE THAN EITHER LONG RANGE
MEMBER BUT CLOSER TO THE EURO. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A KICKER DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...BUT JUST AFTER A BULK OF
THE PRECIP HAS EXITED. THE 00Z EURO IS A BIT SLOWER W/ THE
PROGRESSION AND EXIT OF THESE FEATURES...WHICH BRINGS INTO QUESTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ALONG W/ THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE
AFTN/EVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY PAINTING A LOW/MODEST AMOUNT OF
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA WHICH
TAPERS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD THE I-66 OF NRN VA. ENOUGH WARM AIR
AND EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE L-M70S FOR THESE SRN TIER AREAS FOR AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED OR BRIEF CONVECTIVE INITIATION - SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTRODUCED FOR THE BRIEF FEW HRS OF TUE
AFTN/EVE.

A MODEST REGION OF SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
WED...BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS AND DRIER/COOLER AIR. NOT NEARLY AS
POTENT AS THE STORM SYSTEM A WEEK AGO AT THE SAME TIME...BUT STILL
ONLY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE BARELY INTO THE L60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA W/ A BRISK 15-25MPH NW WIND. A POTENT CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE
MISS RVR LATE THIS WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN GIVES THE MID ATLC
A COUPLE MORE QUIET WX DAYS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA AND TNGT.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...W/ A STEADY 10-15KT BREEZE
EXPECTED BUT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE
AFTN/EVE W/ A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS SOUTH
OF THE DC METRO AREA TAF SITES W/ THE BOUNDARY...THEN THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOME GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED...W/ MORE QUIET WX ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE INTRODUCED A SCA FOR THE LOWEST MARINE SEGMENTS FOR THE
PERIOD OF PEAK SOLAR HEATING THIS AFTERNOON 2PM TO 6PM ...AS BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS HAS MEAN 15-20KTS WIND IN THE LAYER 975 TO 925 MB.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SCA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WHEN THE
SAME AREA WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AS HIGH MOVES OVER CAPE COD...COUPLED WITH THE
SFC LOW OVER THE SE US COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TIGHT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE MID ATLC
REGION ON SUN...THOUGH THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT OVER DELMARVA
WILL ALLOW THE ELY FLOW TO RISE JUST INTO SCA RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
MD BAY FROM THE PREDAWN HRS SUN THRU LATE EVE. WINDS WILL THEN SLACK
OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WINDS
TURN SLY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE TUE...BRINGING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE METRO DC AREA. BREEZY NW WINDS OF WED AFTN...THOUGH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN OVERTAKE THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ534-537-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-
     537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...GMS/ABW
LONG TERM...GMS/ABW
AVIATION...GMS/ABW
MARINE...LEE/GMS/ABW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190751
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
351 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS DIRECTING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE
WORKING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S WEATHER INTO MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

TWO SYSTEMS DUELING TO CONTROL THE WX OF THE MID ATLC - LOW PRES
ON THE FL/GA BRDR AND HIGH PRES CENTERED OVR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
AS CAUSED A SHARP CUTOFF RA LN JUST S OF THE CWA...W/ RA FALLING
ACROSS SERN VA. FURTHER N XTNSV HIGH CLDS XTND INTO SRN PA...BUT
THESE CLDS ARE BEING ERODED FM THE NW AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO
OH/NWRN PA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE
MID ATLC THIS AFTN CAUSING CLDS TO THIN/SUNSHINE TO INCRS.

HIGHS THIS AFTN IN THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE SERN LOW WL MOVE OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT IS NOT XPCTD TO BE A
PLAYER IN MID ATLC WX. AGN HIGH PRES TO THE N WL BE FILTERING IN
TO THE RGN...BRINGING CLR SKIES AND GOOD RAD CONDS. ATTM MDLS ARE
FCSTG A40 BUT FEEL W/ THIS SET UP TEMPS COULD DROP LOWER AWAY FM
THE CITIES. W OF I-95 TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE U30S - IF DAYSHIFT FEELS
TEMPS COULD GO A LTL LOWER A FROST ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED BUT AM
GOING TO ALLOW THE LATER SHIFT TO MAKE THAT DETERMINATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

`TIS THE SEASON FOR CUT-OFF UPPER LOWS. WITH THE JET STREAM
RETREATING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH BUT STILL HANGING AROUND THE
US/CANADA BORDER...ENOUGH ENERGY EXISTS IN THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES
FOR SOME TO `BREAK OFF` AND HOVER FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CONUS. THE
FIRST ONE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OFF THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SQUEEZE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
STRETCHING DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE MID-ATLC...KEEPING THE
TEMPS/HUMIDITY MODERATED W/ HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE L/M60S.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE ELY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

ON MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS INITIALLY ASSOCIATED W/ AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL GET PULLED BACK INTO THE FASTER UPPER
FLOW. BY LATE MON...THE BETTER ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE WILL BE
STRETCHED OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS WHILE THE MID
ATLC RECEIVES ANOTHER DAY OF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WX. THE ELY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DROP OFF AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE SLY...ALLOWING
THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION TO WARM-UP INTO THE L70S WHILE THE ERN
HALF ENDS UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MOST MED RANGE
MEMBERS SHOWING THIS...ESPEC THE GFS. THE BIAS-CORRECTED VERSIONS OF
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH A FEW DEG WARMER OVERALL THAN THEIR
DETERMINISTIC PARENT - SO MORE OF A BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

A DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION REGION WILL BE PUSHING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM THE OHIO VLY TOWARD THE APLCNS EARLY TUE. THE SFC LOW WILL GAIN
SOME STRENGTH ON TUE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DYNAMICS W/ IT TO THE NORTHEAST - AT
LEAST INITIALLY. THOUGH THE NAM`S CURRENT CYCLE ENDS EARLY
TUE...COMPARING THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FEATURES TO
THE GFS AND EURO SHOWS A WEAKER FEATURE THAN EITHER LONG RANGE
MEMBER BUT CLOSER TO THE EURO. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A KICKER DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...BUT JUST AFTER A BULK OF
THE PRECIP HAS EXITED. THE 00Z EURO IS A BIT SLOWER W/ THE
PROGRESSION AND EXIT OF THESE FEATURES...WHICH BRINGS INTO QUESTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ALONG W/ THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE
AFTN/EVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY PAINTING A LOW/MODEST AMOUNT OF
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA WHICH
TAPERS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD THE I-66 OF NRN VA. ENOUGH WARM AIR
AND EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE L-M70S FOR THESE SRN TIER AREAS FOR AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED OR BRIEF CONVECTIVE INITIATION - SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTRODUCED FOR THE BRIEF FEW HRS OF TUE
AFTN/EVE.

A MODEST REGION OF SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
WED...BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS AND DRIER/COOLER AIR. NOT NEARLY AS
POTENT AS THE STORM SYSTEM A WEEK AGO AT THE SAME TIME...BUT STILL
ONLY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE BARELY INTO THE L60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA W/ A BRISK 15-25MPH NW WIND. A POTENT CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE
MISS RVR LATE THIS WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN GIVES THE MID ATLC
A COUPLE MORE QUIET WX DAYS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA AND TNGT.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...W/ A STEADY 10-15KT BREEZE
EXPECTED BUT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE
AFTN/EVE W/ A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS SOUTH
OF THE DC METRO AREA TAF SITES W/ THE BOUNDARY...THEN THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOME GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED...W/ MORE QUIET WX ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TDA. WINDS SHOULD INCRS TO ARND 15 KT THIS
AFTN AFTR SKIES BEGIN TO CLR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TIGHT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE MID ATLC
REGION ON SUN...THOUGH THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT OVER DELMARVA
WILL ALLOW THE ELY FLOW TO RISE JUST INTO SCA RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
MD BAY FROM THE PREDAWN HRS SUN THRU LATE EVE. WINDS WILL THEN SLACK
OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WINDS
TURN SLY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE TUE...BRINGING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE METRO DC AREA. BREEZY NW WINDS OF WED AFTN...THOUGH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN OVERTAKE THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCT...WOODY!/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190129 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST ON SATURDAY. ALL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION HELPING TO SCOUR REMAINING CLOUD COVER LEADING TO A
PLEASANT SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST AND LIGHT.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ONLY TO HUG THE COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY IN PREFRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE
TO ADD THUNDER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SOLAR HEATING WILL BE
PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
BY MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE N FOR SATURDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND HUG THE COAST...KEEPING A SLIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN BREEZY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/KLW/KRW
MARINE...CEB/KLW/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW IN SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH AMPLE CIRRUS OVERTOP WELL TO THE NORTH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE MID 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA SATURDAY. LOTS
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE CWA.

IN ADDITION...SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES OVER TODAY/S MAXIMA...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST AND LIGHT.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ONLY TO HUG THE COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY IN PREFRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE
TO ADD THUNDER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SOLAR HEATING WILL BE
PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
COULD BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT STRATOCU
WITH BASES 3-4FT TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN MAINLY
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
BY MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
E FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE N FOR SATURDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND HUG THE COAST...KEEPING A SLIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN BREEZY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/CEB/KLW
MARINE...BPP/CEB/KLW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181416
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1016 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS PROMOTED SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERTOP...THERE/S PLENTY OF CIRRUS
THAT HAVE SPREAD THIS FAR NORTH FROM AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF
COAST. RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. COOL WEDGE AND
FLOW OFF THE WATER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY...LIKELY ONLY REACHING MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY MAY HIT/SURPASS
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND DRIFTS
EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE BY SUNSET WITH A MILD NIGHT...NO
FROST EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS UPR 30S IN NRN MD TO AROUND 40F FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY...OUTER RAIN BAND FROM LOW TO THE SOUTH SPREADS TOWARD
CENTRAL VA...BUT AS OF THIS TIME SEEMS TO STOP JUST SHORT OF THE LWX
CWA. CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH CONTINENTAL AIR COMING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TO THE MID 60S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD THE LOW OR RAIN FROM IT SHIFT A BIT NORTH
THE TEMPS WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPRESSED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO THE N WL CONT TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WX AT THE
START OF THE XTND PD...KEEPING A WELL DVLPD LOW THE WL CROSS NRN
FL WELL TO OUR S. PATTERN SHOULD RMN RLVTLY BENIGN THRU THE 1ST
PART OF THE NEW WK: IT WON`T BE UNTIL TUE THAT THE AREA SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER CHC OF RA WHEN AN UPR LVL SHORT WV/CD FNT LOOK TO BE MOVG
THRU THE RGN. AT THIS TIME THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SVR THREAT W/
THIS SYSTEM.

HIGHS IN THE L70S MON AND TUE. LOWS IN THE LM40S MON NRNG...CLOSER
TO 50 TUE MRNG AHD OF THE FNT.

HIGH PRES BLDG BACK INTO THE RGN WED WL LKLY LEAD TO A BRZY DAY.
TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER THAN TUE. LKWISE COOLER ERLY MRNG TEMPS
XPCTD THU MRNG AS THE NEXT HIGH AREA SETTLES OVR THE RGN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAY CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS DUE TO EAST FLOW. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT FLOW AND VFR
TONIGHT...THEN NWLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH RAIN
FROM A LOW OVER GEORGIA STAYING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

IN THE XTND...VFR CONDS XPCTD THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. BIGGEST
THREAT WL BE A CD FRONT TUE WHICH WL LKLY BRING RW AND THE PSBLTY
OF REDUCED CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
ELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT BECOMES SLY BY LATE TODAY...THEN NLY FLOW 10 TO
15 KT ON SATURDAY. RAIN FROM A LOW OVER GA WILL APPROACH MD BAY
WATERS SATURDAY...BUT LIKELY STAY SOUTH.

MAJORITY OF THE TIME IN THE XTND PD WINDS SHOULD BE BLO SCA
VALUES. A CD FRONT MOVG THRU THE WATERS TUE WL LKLY BRING RW.
THEN AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE WATERS WED SCA LVL WNDS CAN BE XPCTD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 180759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 07Z...1042MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A
SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN I-95 INTO THE CAROLINAS. ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS THE LWX CWA WITH OCEANIC LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE ERN PART OF
THE CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG I-95. HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW. STORY OF THE DAY IS THE LOW CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST AND
THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL FILTER SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA. GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MODIFY/MODERATE...MAX TEMPS MID 50S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND LOW TO MID 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND DRIFTS
EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE BY SUNSET WITH A MILD NIGHT...NO
FROST EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS UPR 30S IN NRN MD TO AROUND 40F FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY...OUTER RAIN BAND FROM LOW TO THE SOUTH SPREADS TOWARD
CENTRAL VA...BUT AS OF THIS TIME SEEMS TO STOP JUST SHORT OF THE LWX
CWA. CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH CONTINENTAL AIR COMING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TO THE MID 60S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD THE LOW OR RAIN FROM IT SHIFT A BIT NORTH
THE TEMPS WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPRESSED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO THE N WL CONT TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WX AT THE
START OF THE XTND PD...KEEPING A WELL DVLPD LOW THE WL CROSS NRN
FL WELL TO OUR S. PATTERN SHOULD RMN RLVTLY BENIGN THRU THE 1ST
PART OF THE NEW WK: IT WON`T BE UNTIL TUE THAT THE AREA SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER CHC OF RA WHEN AN UPR LVL SHORT WV/CD FNT LOOK TO BE MOVG
THRU THE RGN. AT THIS TIME THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SVR THREAT W/
THIS SYSTEM.

HIGHS IN THE L70S MON AND TUE. LOWS IN THE LM40S MON NRNG...CLOSER
TO 50 TUE MRNG AHD OF THE FNT.

HIGH PRES BLDG BACK INTO THE RGN WED WL LKLY LEAD TO A BRZY DAY.
TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER THAN TUE. LKWISE COOLER ERLY MRNG TEMPS
XPCTD THU MRNG AS THE NEXT HIGH AREA SETTLES OVR THE RGN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS DRIFT EAST BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO PUSH WEST OF KIAD TODAY.
THESE CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTW...HIGH
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THE BECOMES SLY. LIGHT FLOW AND VFR
TONIGHT...THEN NWLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH RAIN
FROM A LOW OVER GEORGIA STAYING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

IN THE XTND...VFR CONDS XPCTD THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. BIGGEST
THREAT WL BE A CD FRONT TUE WHICH WL LKLY BRING RW AND THE PSBLTY
OF REDUCED CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
ELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT BECOMES SLY BY LATE TODAY...THEN NLY FLOW 10 TO
15 KT ON SATURDAY. RAIN FROM A LOW OVER GA WILL APPROACH MD BAY
WATERS SATURDAY...BUT LIKELY STAY SOUTH.

MAJORITY OF THE TIME IN THE XTND PD WINDS SHOULD BE BLO SCA
VALUES. A CD FRONT MOVG THRU THE WATERS TUE WL LKLY BRING RW.
THEN AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE WATERS WED SCA LVL WNDS CAN BE XPCTD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 180134 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CAD REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS 1042 MB HIGH
HOLDS IN PLACE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FETCH HAS DEVELOPED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SLOWLY
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE BAY. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS MARINE
LAYER SETTLES IN. BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR WEST THE MARINE
LAYER PUSHES. THINKING IT COULD CLIP DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS
BRINGING STRATUS DECK BY DAWN. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR WITH ONLY
SOME CIRRUS WILL HELP RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES AND FALLING
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE SAME COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE A LITTLE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MAXIMA
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS WILL SPLIT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DETERIORATE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH IT COULD PROVIDE
A BIT OF A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE A STRONGER INFLUENCE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
WEATHER WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE SIZE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ECMWF
AND NAM KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER
OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCE OF POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER.

EXPECT PLEANTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE GROUND BETWEEN SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE MOST SOUTHERLY
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA AS STRATUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW STAY MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SOME COLD AIR WEDGING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH NORTH TO NERLY 850 MB FLOW A STRONG CAD EVENT
IS NOT EXPECTED...MOSTLY JUST A WEAK INFLUX OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY OVERCOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AND SUN AND WEAK NWRLY FLOW WILL
KEEP NIGHTS COLD...WITH SAT AND SUN LOWS NEAR 40 EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE CITIES...WHERE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
THE GA/FL COAST AND EAST TOWARDS BERMUDA...WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA /WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATER/ AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
VARYING INTENSITY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITH BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START WARMING AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09-13Z
FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND WILL AID IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING TERMINALS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IFR
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY KBWI/KMTN/KDCA. STRATUS WILL LIFT BY MID
MORNING WITH CIRRUS AND VFR THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS
ARE FOR WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEST SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     536>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...CEB/KRW/DFH
MARINE...CEB/KRW/DFH








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