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000
FXUS61 KLWX 250011 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
711 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTERMEDIATE UPDATE...CANCELLED WIND ADZY FOR THE WRN HIGHLANDS
AND PERIPHERY ZONES OF THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADZY FOR THE
WATERS.

FROM PREV DISC...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO FALL AS THE COLDER AIR IS BLOCKED BY THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S IN
HIGH ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE BAY. SOME PATCHY FOG OR
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MD AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG IT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER NORTHERN FL. DESPITE BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY... THE COLDEST AIR STAYS POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN THE 50S. SHADED SOUTHEAST CWA A LITTLE
COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT JETMAX/SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY
WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO TO GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...CAUSING THE THREAT
FOR SNOW. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING
FROM THE WET-BULB EFFECT AND DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR ANY RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THESE AREAS SO A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM
AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO THE COOLING
AFFECTS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER
CLOSE TO OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS
MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO STICK. THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THESE AREAS SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-95...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO MIX IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SINCE THIS SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH UNTIL AFTER IT IS OFF TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
DRY OUT. THEREFORE...ANY WET OR SLUSHY ROADS MAY FREEZE UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...500 MB NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES BUT TRAJECTORIES NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES EAST
OF THE RIDGES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BUT MOSTLY JUST EXPECTING
PASSING CLOUDS IN A BREEZY WEST FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER TEMPS AT 850 MB ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...SO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUST APPROX 25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD VARY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-THU NIGHT W/ W WIND 10-15 KTS. VFR INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN S AROUND 10 KTS SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING WESTERLY.
NOT A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR...SO GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF DESPITE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THE
SAME...ENDING AT 8 PM FOR THE MID/UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND AT 1 AM
FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AT LESS THAN 15KT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND FOR
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY WEST WINDS BETWEEN DEPARTING/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BREACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING LOOKS TO BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
THEREFORE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WILL ALL COME VERY NEAR
CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR THEY
OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958. ..OFFICIALLY TIED..
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-501-502.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...ADS/BJL/DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 242006
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN OH TO
EASTERN KY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS
DOUBTFUL THAT ANY OF THESE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS. HOWEVER...DID PULL BACK THE
START TIME FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDOW FOR UPSLOPE POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS IS SMALL AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE YET TO SEE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MET...BUT WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 9PM FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000FT IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS THE COLD FRONT
COULD HELP SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIX DOWN.

MEANWHILE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...A WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN
PROGRESS. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAS FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT...SO WILL EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A WIND SHIFT AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO FALL AS THE COLDER AIR IS BLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE BAY. SOME PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
IN SOUTHERN MD AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG
IT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER NORTHERN FL. DESPITE BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY... THE COLDEST AIR STAYS POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN THE 50S. SHADED SOUTHEAST CWA A LITTLE
COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT JETMAX/SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY
WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY
EARLY WEDNSESDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO TO GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...CAUSING THE THREAT
FOR SNOW. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING
FROM THE WET-BULB EFFECT AND DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR ANY RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THESE AREAS SO A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM
AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO THE COOLING
AFFECTS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER
CLOSE TO OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE DEGRESS ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS
MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO STICK. THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THESE AREAS SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-95...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO MIX IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SINCE THIS SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH UNTIL AFTER IT IS OFF TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
DRY OUT. THEREFORE...ANY WET OR SLUSHY ROADS MAY FREEZE UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...500 MB NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES BUT TRAJECTORIES NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES EAST
OF THE RIDGES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BUT MOSTLY JUST EXPECTING
PASSING CLOUDS IN A BREEZY WEST FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER TEMPS AT 850 MB ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...SO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUST APPROX 25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD VARY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-THU NIGHT W/ W WIND 10-15 KTS. VFR INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN S AROUND 10 KTS SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING WESTERLY.
NOT A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR...SO GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF DESPITE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THE
SAME...ENDING AT 8 PM FOR THE MID/UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND AT 1 AM
FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AT LESS THAN 15KT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND FOR
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY WEST WINDS BETWEEN DEPARTING/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BREACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING LOOKS TO BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
THEREFORE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WILL ALL COME VERY NEAR
CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR THEY
OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-501-502.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/DFH
MARINE...BJL/ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 242006
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN OH TO
EASTERN KY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS
DOUBTFUL THAT ANY OF THESE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS. HOWEVER...DID PULL BACK THE
START TIME FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDOW FOR UPSLOPE POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS IS SMALL AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE YET TO SEE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MET...BUT WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 9PM FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000FT IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS THE COLD FRONT
COULD HELP SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIX DOWN.

MEANWHILE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...A WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN
PROGRESS. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAS FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT...SO WILL EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A WIND SHIFT AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO FALL AS THE COLDER AIR IS BLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE BAY. SOME PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
IN SOUTHERN MD AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG
IT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER NORTHERN FL. DESPITE BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY... THE COLDEST AIR STAYS POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN THE 50S. SHADED SOUTHEAST CWA A LITTLE
COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT JETMAX/SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY
WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY
EARLY WEDNSESDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO TO GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...CAUSING THE THREAT
FOR SNOW. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING
FROM THE WET-BULB EFFECT AND DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR ANY RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THESE AREAS SO A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM
AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO THE COOLING
AFFECTS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER
CLOSE TO OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE DEGRESS ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS
MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO STICK. THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THESE AREAS SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-95...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO MIX IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SINCE THIS SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH UNTIL AFTER IT IS OFF TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
DRY OUT. THEREFORE...ANY WET OR SLUSHY ROADS MAY FREEZE UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...500 MB NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES BUT TRAJECTORIES NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES EAST
OF THE RIDGES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BUT MOSTLY JUST EXPECTING
PASSING CLOUDS IN A BREEZY WEST FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER TEMPS AT 850 MB ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...SO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUST APPROX 25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD VARY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-THU NIGHT W/ W WIND 10-15 KTS. VFR INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN S AROUND 10 KTS SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING WESTERLY.
NOT A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR...SO GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF DESPITE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THE
SAME...ENDING AT 8 PM FOR THE MID/UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND AT 1 AM
FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AT LESS THAN 15KT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND FOR
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY WEST WINDS BETWEEN DEPARTING/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BREACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING LOOKS TO BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
THEREFORE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WILL ALL COME VERY NEAR
CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR THEY
OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-501-502.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/DFH
MARINE...BJL/ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 242006
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN OH TO
EASTERN KY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS
DOUBTFUL THAT ANY OF THESE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS. HOWEVER...DID PULL BACK THE
START TIME FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDOW FOR UPSLOPE POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS IS SMALL AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE YET TO SEE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MET...BUT WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 9PM FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000FT IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS THE COLD FRONT
COULD HELP SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIX DOWN.

MEANWHILE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...A WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN
PROGRESS. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAS FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT...SO WILL EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A WIND SHIFT AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO FALL AS THE COLDER AIR IS BLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE BAY. SOME PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
IN SOUTHERN MD AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG
IT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER NORTHERN FL. DESPITE BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY... THE COLDEST AIR STAYS POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN THE 50S. SHADED SOUTHEAST CWA A LITTLE
COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT JETMAX/SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY
WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY
EARLY WEDNSESDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO TO GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...CAUSING THE THREAT
FOR SNOW. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING
FROM THE WET-BULB EFFECT AND DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR ANY RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THESE AREAS SO A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM
AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO THE COOLING
AFFECTS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER
CLOSE TO OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE DEGRESS ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS
MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO STICK. THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THESE AREAS SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-95...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO MIX IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SINCE THIS SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH UNTIL AFTER IT IS OFF TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
DRY OUT. THEREFORE...ANY WET OR SLUSHY ROADS MAY FREEZE UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...500 MB NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES BUT TRAJECTORIES NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES EAST
OF THE RIDGES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BUT MOSTLY JUST EXPECTING
PASSING CLOUDS IN A BREEZY WEST FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER TEMPS AT 850 MB ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...SO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUST APPROX 25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD VARY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-THU NIGHT W/ W WIND 10-15 KTS. VFR INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN S AROUND 10 KTS SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING WESTERLY.
NOT A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR...SO GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF DESPITE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THE
SAME...ENDING AT 8 PM FOR THE MID/UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND AT 1 AM
FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AT LESS THAN 15KT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND FOR
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY WEST WINDS BETWEEN DEPARTING/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BREACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING LOOKS TO BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
THEREFORE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WILL ALL COME VERY NEAR
CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR THEY
OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-501-502.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/DFH
MARINE...BJL/ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 242006
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN OH TO
EASTERN KY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS
DOUBTFUL THAT ANY OF THESE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AS FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS. HOWEVER...DID PULL BACK THE
START TIME FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDOW FOR UPSLOPE POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS IS SMALL AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE YET TO SEE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MET...BUT WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 9PM FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000FT IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS THE COLD FRONT
COULD HELP SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIX DOWN.

MEANWHILE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...A WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN
PROGRESS. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAS FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT...SO WILL EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A WIND SHIFT AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO FALL AS THE COLDER AIR IS BLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE BAY. SOME PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
IN SOUTHERN MD AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG
IT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER NORTHERN FL. DESPITE BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY... THE COLDEST AIR STAYS POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN THE 50S. SHADED SOUTHEAST CWA A LITTLE
COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT JETMAX/SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY
WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY
EARLY WEDNSESDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO TO GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...CAUSING THE THREAT
FOR SNOW. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING
FROM THE WET-BULB EFFECT AND DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR ANY RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THESE AREAS SO A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM
AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO THE COOLING
AFFECTS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER
CLOSE TO OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE DEGRESS ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS
MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO STICK. THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THESE AREAS SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-95...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO MIX IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SINCE THIS SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH UNTIL AFTER IT IS OFF TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
DRY OUT. THEREFORE...ANY WET OR SLUSHY ROADS MAY FREEZE UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...500 MB NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES BUT TRAJECTORIES NOT
FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES EAST
OF THE RIDGES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BUT MOSTLY JUST EXPECTING
PASSING CLOUDS IN A BREEZY WEST FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND
40 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER TEMPS AT 850 MB ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...SO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUST APPROX 25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD VARY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-THU NIGHT W/ W WIND 10-15 KTS. VFR INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN S AROUND 10 KTS SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING WESTERLY.
NOT A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR...SO GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF DESPITE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THE
SAME...ENDING AT 8 PM FOR THE MID/UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND AT 1 AM
FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AT LESS THAN 15KT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND FOR
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY WEST WINDS BETWEEN DEPARTING/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BREACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING LOOKS TO BRING A RETURN TO HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
THEREFORE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WILL ALL COME VERY NEAR
CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR THEY
OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-501-502.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/DFH
MARINE...BJL/ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241452
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
952 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA AS OF 14Z AND BELIEVE THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT IN
SOME LOCATIONS. REMAINING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX
OUT BUT MAY BE REPLACED WITH CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. DIDNT SEE ANY
REASON AT THIS TIME TO ADJUST THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NW PA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE BRUSHING THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. CONSIDERING SUNSHINE...CURRENT WINDS AT SOME OF THE
HIGH ELEVATION MESONET SITES...AND ANALYSIS OF LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...FEEL THERE IS A SHOT OF ELEVATIONS OVER 3000
FT TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO
HOISTED ONE THERE FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. WILL
MONITOR WINDS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT AND TAF SITES ARE EITHER MVFR
OR VFR. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR SNOW WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL -SN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.

N-NE WINDS 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE BAY REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW
GETS CLOSER AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WOULD ALL COME
VERY NEAR CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR
THEY OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241452
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
952 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA AS OF 14Z AND BELIEVE THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT IN
SOME LOCATIONS. REMAINING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX
OUT BUT MAY BE REPLACED WITH CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. DIDNT SEE ANY
REASON AT THIS TIME TO ADJUST THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NW PA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE BRUSHING THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. CONSIDERING SUNSHINE...CURRENT WINDS AT SOME OF THE
HIGH ELEVATION MESONET SITES...AND ANALYSIS OF LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...FEEL THERE IS A SHOT OF ELEVATIONS OVER 3000
FT TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO
HOISTED ONE THERE FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. WILL
MONITOR WINDS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT AND TAF SITES ARE EITHER MVFR
OR VFR. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR SNOW WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL -SN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.

N-NE WINDS 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE BAY REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW
GETS CLOSER AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WOULD ALL COME
VERY NEAR CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR
THEY OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241452
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
952 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA AS OF 14Z AND BELIEVE THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT IN
SOME LOCATIONS. REMAINING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX
OUT BUT MAY BE REPLACED WITH CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. DIDNT SEE ANY
REASON AT THIS TIME TO ADJUST THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NW PA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE BRUSHING THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. CONSIDERING SUNSHINE...CURRENT WINDS AT SOME OF THE
HIGH ELEVATION MESONET SITES...AND ANALYSIS OF LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...FEEL THERE IS A SHOT OF ELEVATIONS OVER 3000
FT TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO
HOISTED ONE THERE FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. WILL
MONITOR WINDS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT AND TAF SITES ARE EITHER MVFR
OR VFR. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR SNOW WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL -SN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.

N-NE WINDS 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE BAY REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW
GETS CLOSER AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WOULD ALL COME
VERY NEAR CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR
THEY OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241452
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
952 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA AS OF 14Z AND BELIEVE THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT IN
SOME LOCATIONS. REMAINING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX
OUT BUT MAY BE REPLACED WITH CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. DIDNT SEE ANY
REASON AT THIS TIME TO ADJUST THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NW PA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE BRUSHING THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. CONSIDERING SUNSHINE...CURRENT WINDS AT SOME OF THE
HIGH ELEVATION MESONET SITES...AND ANALYSIS OF LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...FEEL THERE IS A SHOT OF ELEVATIONS OVER 3000
FT TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO
HOISTED ONE THERE FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. WILL
MONITOR WINDS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT AND TAF SITES ARE EITHER MVFR
OR VFR. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR SNOW WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL -SN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.

N-NE WINDS 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE BAY REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW
GETS CLOSER AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WOULD ALL COME
VERY NEAR CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR
THEY OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240907
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR SNOW WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL -SN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.

N-NE WINDS 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE BAY REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW
GETS CLOSER AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WOULD ALL COME
VERY NEAR CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR
THEY OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240907
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR SNOW WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL -SN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.

N-NE WINDS 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE BAY REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW
GETS CLOSER AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WOULD ALL COME
VERY NEAR CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR
THEY OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 240855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD TRACKING OF THE PRVSLY BLOCKING HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER
MIDWEST WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...RA WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...AND TEMPS WL RISE (MINS WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER
SATURATION). WE WL BE IN A HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT BTWN 10
PM AND 4 AM. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR
SERN ZONES...ROUGHLY AROUND KCHO THIS EVENING THEN I-95 AND EAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MON THE WARM FNT HAS PUSHED N OF US AND PCPN WL COME TO AN END. IT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY W/ SRLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TE M70S IN
MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THERE IS A CHANCE
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH SNOW
MAY MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE THOUGH...SO POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE BAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAA SLOWS...SO DESPITE BEING
COOLER...NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INITIATE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
BUCKLES AND LOW BEGINS TO TURN UP THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...SOME
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF IT
DOES SO...IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN MD TO CENTRAL VA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

WED IS A CHALLENGE. THE KEY AT THIS PT IN TIME IS TO NOTE THIS IS
STILL 3 DAYS HENCE AND THERE CAN BE CHGS TO THE FCST. LOW PRES IS
XPCTD TO FORM IN THE GULFMEX ON THE DEPARTED CD FNT AND THEN MOVE
N ALONG THE ALTC SEABOARD WED. DEPENDING ON THE MDL THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSN OF THE LOW...FM OVR HAT/ORF WED AFTN TO A
HUNDRED MILES OUT TO SEA. W/ THE LOW E OF THE FCST AREA THIS WL
ALLOW CD AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC - SUB 130 DM. MOISTURE WL
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE RGN...LKLY CAUSING SNOW TO FALL AT HIGHER
ELEVS AND ALONG M-D LN...A MIX FM THE BLU RDG TO I-95...AND MAINLY
RA E OF I-95. SVRL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE PSBL WED...AGN MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVS.

THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO HOLD THIS LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. IT
IS PROJECTED TO MOVE E OF NJ BY 00Z THU. THIS WOULD LKLY BRING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPSLOPE SNOWS PSBL THU OVR THE HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FRI. UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZNL FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDS IN RAIN OVRNGT. CIGS WL LKLY IMPROVE AFTR SUNRISE MON.
ISOL TSRA NEAR KCHO LATE THIS EVENING THEN DC METROS AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH TO WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME...BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SELY WINDS INCRS TNGT WITH RAIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
SCA IN EFFECT TNGT INTO MON EVENING. SWLY FLOW MONDAY GUSTING
GENERALLY AROUND 25 KT...BUT ISOLATED 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED THE
SCA TO 1 AM FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A SCA. MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE MID-CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
MPH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR
AND WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO
WATER LVL RISE WITH TIDES TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY BE
STRONG TONIGHT...BUT THIS DOES NOT POSE MUCH THREAT TO THE WESTERN
SHORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM






000
FXUS61 KLWX 240228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD TRACKING OF THE PRVSLY BLOCKING HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER
MIDWEST WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...RA WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...AND TEMPS WL RISE (MINS WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER
SATURATION). WE WL BE IN A HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT BTWN 10
PM AND 4 AM. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR
SERN ZONES...ROUGHLY AROUND KCHO THIS EVENING THEN I-95 AND EAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MON THE WARM FNT HAS PUSHED N OF US AND PCPN WL COME TO AN END. IT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY W/ SRLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TE M70S IN
MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THERE IS A CHANCE
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH SNOW
MAY MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE THOUGH...SO POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE BAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAA SLOWS...SO DESPITE BEING
COOLER...NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INITIATE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
BUCKLES AND LOW BEGINS TO TURN UP THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...SOME
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF IT
DOES SO...IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN MD TO CENTRAL VA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

WED IS A CHALLENGE. THE KEY AT THIS PT IN TIME IS TO NOTE THIS IS
STILL 3 DAYS HENCE AND THERE CAN BE CHGS TO THE FCST. LOW PRES IS
XPCTD TO FORM IN THE GULFMEX ON THE DEPARTED CD FNT AND THEN MOVE
N ALONG THE ALTC SEABOARD WED. DEPENDING ON THE MDL THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSN OF THE LOW...FM OVR HAT/ORF WED AFTN TO A
HUNDRED MILES OUT TO SEA. W/ THE LOW E OF THE FCST AREA THIS WL
ALLOW CD AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC - SUB 130 DM. MOISTURE WL
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE RGN...LKLY CAUSING SNOW TO FALL AT HIGHER
ELEVS AND ALONG M-D LN...A MIX FM THE BLU RDG TO I-95...AND MAINLY
RA E OF I-95. SVRL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE PSBL WED...AGN MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVS.

THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO HOLD THIS LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. IT
IS PROJECTED TO MOVE E OF NJ BY 00Z THU. THIS WOULD LKLY BRING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPSLOPE SNOWS PSBL THU OVR THE HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FRI. UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZNL FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDS IN RAIN OVRNGT. CIGS WL LKLY IMPROVE AFTR SUNRISE MON.
ISOL TSRA NEAR KCHO LATE THIS EVENING THEN DC METROS AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH TO WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME...BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SELY WINDS INCRS TNGT WITH RAIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
SCA IN EFFECT TNGT INTO MON EVENING. SWLY FLOW MONDAY GUSTING
GENERALLY AROUND 25 KT...BUT ISOLATED 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED THE
SCA TO 1 AM FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A SCA. MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE MID-CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
MPH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR
AND WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO
WATER LVL RISE WITH TIDES TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY BE
STRONG TONIGHT...BUT THIS DOES NOT POSE MUCH THREAT TO THE WESTERN
SHORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 231952
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

LOTS OF CHGS TO TAKE PLACE WX WISE IN THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE TNGT
PD IS NO XCPTN. AFTR A GRADUAL WARMUP OVR THE PAST SVRL DAYS WE`LL
SEE A WARM FNT PUSH THRU THE MID ATLC AFTR MDNGT. THIS IN ITSELF
IS SOMEWHAT UNCOMMON - WARM FNTS GNRLY HV A HARDER TIME PUSHING
THRU AT NGT...BUT THE EWD TRACKING OF THE PRVSLY BLOCKING HIGH AND
AND THE EWD PUSH OF THE FNTS TO OUR W WL AID IN PUSHING THE WARM
FNT N. AS A RESULT RA WL BRK OUT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPS WL
RISE OVRNGT. WE WL BE IN A HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT BTWN 10
PM AND 4 AM. ALTHO NO THUNDER IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN TO THE S A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LOWS SHOULD HAPPEN B4 MDNGT THEN RISING OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

MON THE WARM FNT HAS PUSHED N OF US AND PCPN WL COME TO AN END. IT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY W/ SRLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TE M70S IN
MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THERE IS A CHANCE
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH SNOW
MAY MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE THOUGH...SO POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE BAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAA SLOWS...SO DESPITE BEING
COOLER...NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INITIATE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
BUCKLES AND LOW BEGINS TO TURN UP THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...SOME
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF IT
DOES SO...IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN MD TO CENTRAL VA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

WED IS A CHALLENGE. THE KEY AT THIS PT IN TIME IS TO NOTE THIS IS
STILL 3 DAYS HENCE AND THERE CAN BE CHGS TO THE FCST. LOW PRES IS
XPCTD TO FORM IN THE GULFMEX ON THE DEPARTED CD FNT AND THEN MOVE
N ALONG THE ALTC SEABOARD WED. DEPENDING ON THE MDL THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSN OF THE LOW...FM OVR HAT/ORF WED AFTN TO A
HUNDRED MILES OUT TO SEA. W/ THE LOW E OF THE FCST AREA THIS WL
ALLOW CD AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC - SUB 130 DM. MOISTURE WL
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE RGN...LKLY CAUSING SNOW TO FALL AT HIGHER
ELEVS AND ALONG M-D LN...A MIX FM THE BLU RDG TO I-95...AND MAINLY
RA E OF I-95. SVRL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE PSBL WED...AGN MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVS.

THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO HOLD THIS LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. IT
IS PROJECTED TO MOVE E OF NJ BY 00Z THU. THIS WOULD LKLY BRING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPSLOPE SNOWS PSBL THU OVR THE HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FRI. UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZNL FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS FOR RMNDR OF AFTN. CONDS ARE XPCTD TO BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AFTR 00Z..DROPPING TO IFR OVRNGT. CIGS WL LKLY IMPROVE
AFTR SUNRISE MON.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH TO WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME...BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SRLY WINDS XPCTD TO INCRS TNGT ALONG W/ THE PSBLTY OF ISOLD
THUNDER. SCA IN EFFECT TNGT AND MON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED THE
SCA TO 1 AM FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A SCA. MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO
WATER LVL RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OF COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM/BPP









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231507
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES OFF NERN N CAROLINA HAS DONE A VALIANT JOB
OF HOLDING THE AREA OF RA AT BAY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS N.
BUT THE HIGH WL BE MOVG OUT TO SEA...AND MID ATLC CAN EXPECT TO
SEE INCRSG CLDS THIS AFTN. A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LATE NOV AFTN -
HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE M50S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE PWATS FM THE 12Z IAD SNDGS OVR
THE PAST 3 DAYS: FRI 0.11" SAT 0.17" SUN 0.57". AFTR THE COLD MRNG
FRI 24 HR TEMP CHGS OF THE ATOMOSPHERE HV SHOWN LARGE INCREASES
THE PAST 2 MRNGS.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX
FM CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION... AS
EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

FROM THERE...UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. WPC
NOTES...AS DO WE...THAT THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON
THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH
INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS
WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF CERTAINTY THEN.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP
THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS ON WATERS ATTM. THE P-GRAD WL INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A
WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF
THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL
BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER WATER TEMPS IN THE
LWR- MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING OFF GLW MENTION.
DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL BE A LOT OF WND
NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/JCE









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231507
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES OFF NERN N CAROLINA HAS DONE A VALIANT JOB
OF HOLDING THE AREA OF RA AT BAY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS N.
BUT THE HIGH WL BE MOVG OUT TO SEA...AND MID ATLC CAN EXPECT TO
SEE INCRSG CLDS THIS AFTN. A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LATE NOV AFTN -
HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE M50S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE PWATS FM THE 12Z IAD SNDGS OVR
THE PAST 3 DAYS: FRI 0.11" SAT 0.17" SUN 0.57". AFTR THE COLD MRNG
FRI 24 HR TEMP CHGS OF THE ATOMOSPHERE HV SHOWN LARGE INCREASES
THE PAST 2 MRNGS.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX
FM CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION... AS
EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

FROM THERE...UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. WPC
NOTES...AS DO WE...THAT THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON
THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH
INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS
WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF CERTAINTY THEN.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP
THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS ON WATERS ATTM. THE P-GRAD WL INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A
WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF
THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL
BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER WATER TEMPS IN THE
LWR- MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING OFF GLW MENTION.
DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL BE A LOT OF WND
NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/JCE










000
FXUS61 KLWX 230840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF HSE ELY THIS MRNG. A SWATH OF LOW DEWPTS
RESIDES NW OF THIS RDG...FM THE MID ATLC UP THE SEABOARD TO DOWNEAST
ME. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN PROTECTING AREA FM PACKETS OF ISENT LIFT
AND ASSOCD PCPN CROSSING THE LWR GRTLKS. INSTEAD...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF MID-UPR DECK CLDS AND LGT SLY WINDS ACRS AREA.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX FM
CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA. BELIEVE THE
FNT ITSELF WL REMAIN SW OF CWFA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. INSTEAD...
ENERGY WL BE FOCUSED TWD MSTNG THE DRY AMS. AM STILL HOPEFUL THAT
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHN DURING THE MRNG/MIDDAY...BUT IT/LL BECOME
MASKED BY INCRSG CLDCVR. PCPN WL FLLW SOON THEREAFTER.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. THIS ISNT TOO DIFFERENT FM PRVS FCSTS. FURTHER...AM KEEPING
MOST OF MD-- ANYWHERE NE OF THE PTMC RIVER-- DRY. OBVIOUSLY...CHC
POPS IN BTWN. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION...
AS EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST. AM USING A BLEND OF MAXT
DERIVED FM THOSE MDLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FROM THERE...
UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO
THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC
TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. OUR FRIENDS AT WPC NOTE...AS WE DO...THAT
THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT
PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC
RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR
PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE
WILL AT LEAST HAVE A GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF
CERTAINTY THEN.

WHATEVER DOES OR DOES NOT HAPPEN WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE
SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER
ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN
A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE
CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS GNLY ARND 10 KT...ALTHO TPLM2 A PINCH HIER. DONT BELIEVE
WNDS WL DECR MUCH MORE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS SUN MRNG. THE P-GRAD WL
INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE
EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT
AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER
WATER TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING
OFF GLW MENTION. DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL
BE A LOT OF WND NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/JE
MARINE...HTS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF HSE ELY THIS MRNG. A SWATH OF LOW DEWPTS
RESIDES NW OF THIS RDG...FM THE MID ATLC UP THE SEABOARD TO DOWNEAST
ME. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN PROTECTING AREA FM PACKETS OF ISENT LIFT
AND ASSOCD PCPN CROSSING THE LWR GRTLKS. INSTEAD...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF MID-UPR DECK CLDS AND LGT SLY WINDS ACRS AREA.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX FM
CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA. BELIEVE THE
FNT ITSELF WL REMAIN SW OF CWFA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. INSTEAD...
ENERGY WL BE FOCUSED TWD MSTNG THE DRY AMS. AM STILL HOPEFUL THAT
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHN DURING THE MRNG/MIDDAY...BUT IT/LL BECOME
MASKED BY INCRSG CLDCVR. PCPN WL FLLW SOON THEREAFTER.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. THIS ISNT TOO DIFFERENT FM PRVS FCSTS. FURTHER...AM KEEPING
MOST OF MD-- ANYWHERE NE OF THE PTMC RIVER-- DRY. OBVIOUSLY...CHC
POPS IN BTWN. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION...
AS EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST. AM USING A BLEND OF MAXT
DERIVED FM THOSE MDLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FROM THERE...
UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO
THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC
TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. OUR FRIENDS AT WPC NOTE...AS WE DO...THAT
THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT
PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC
RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR
PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE
WILL AT LEAST HAVE A GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF
CERTAINTY THEN.

WHATEVER DOES OR DOES NOT HAPPEN WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE
SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER
ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN
A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE
CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS GNLY ARND 10 KT...ALTHO TPLM2 A PINCH HIER. DONT BELIEVE
WNDS WL DECR MUCH MORE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS SUN MRNG. THE P-GRAD WL
INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE
EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT
AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER
WATER TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING
OFF GLW MENTION. DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL
BE A LOT OF WND NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/JE
MARINE...HTS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 230224
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
924 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS OFF CAPE HATTERAS...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT EXISTS TO
MAINTAIN 10 MPH SLY FLOW. THEREFORE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED MUCH YET THIS EVENING. WITH
CLEAR SKIES THOUGH...ANY AREAS THAT SEE DECOUPLING WILL DROP
QUICKLY. FOR INSTANCE...IT IS ALREADY MID 30S AT KMRB WHERE IT WAS
CALM AT 02Z. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW 30S...THOUGH PATCHY UPR 20S
WILL OCCUR. INVERSION WITH HIGHER TEMPS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NEARSHORE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

POPS INCREASE FROM FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TYPICALLY STARTS RAINING SOONER THAN MODELS DEPICT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS TNGT AND INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN (MVFR
POSSIBLE SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCHO). A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KT TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBY LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KT THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND 15 KT INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRAY 18 KT GUST
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964.

8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT IAD AND BWI WAS
RECORDED TODAY...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD IN THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH






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