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000
FXUS61 KLWX 310739
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND WILL
SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE INLAND. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SEND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EASTWARD. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS BROAD HIPRES ALONG THE ERN SEABRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH LOPRES N OF THE GRTLKS. THE LOW IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE
LINGERING ULVL CYCLONE...WHICH IS ROTATING SPOKES OF PVA ACRS THE
GRTLKS TWD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC. ONE SUCH VORT...EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR...DEPARTING NERN MD ATTM. THERE HV BEEN A FEW ASSOCD
SPRINKLES THRU THE NGT...BUT THE PREDAWN HRS SHUD BE DRY...AS RECENT
RDR TRENDS HV BEEN DECLINING...W/ THE NEAREST COLD CLD TOPS HEADED
TWD BUF. WL STILL HV INTERVALS OF CLDS THRU SUNRISE.

THRU THE DAYTIME HRS TDA...THE RDG FM THE ATLC WL GNLY BE THE
CONTROLLING WX FACTOR. FORCING NIL AT BEST...AND INSTBY VALUES
MEAGER. AM CARRYING A DRY FCST W/ MOSUN OR SUNNY SKIES. DUE TO THIS
INSOLATION AND WAA...MAXT WL BE WARMER THAN RECENT PAST. MOS GDNC IN
GNRL AGREEMENT...AND BLEND TAKEN.

THTE RDGG AND MID-LVL CNVGNC INCR TNGT. THUS...WUD ANTICIPATE BLDG
MID DECK CLDS...RISING DEWPTS AND POTL CRRDR OF PCPN. BOTH NAM/GFS
HV THIS...THO THE NAM SEEMS EXCESSIVELY WET FOR THE SITUATION. HV
SIDED W/ GFS...WHICH BRINGS CHC POPS JUST E OF THE SPINE OF THE
BLURDG PAST CHO TWD DC. LLVL WNDS IN THIS AREA SELY ARND PERIPHERY
OF RDG...WHICH WUD ADD A LTL UPSLOPE SUPPORT FOR PCPN DVLPMNT. QPF
LGT...AND AM KEEPING POPS NO HIER THAN 30 PCT...GNLY LT NGT/OVNGT
HRS. SINCE DEWPTS SHUD BE ABLE TO CRACK THE 60 DEGF BARRIER...MIN-T
WL BE IN THE 60S...AND A BIT HIER THAN THAT FOR DCA/DMH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PTTN CHG WL MANIFEST ITSELF FRI...AS H9-7 CONFLUENCE WL COAX GLFMEX
MSTR NEWD. WL STILL HV A THTE RDG SITUATED OVER THE MTNS...SO A
CRRDR OF FVRBL ISENT UPGLIDE WL RESIDE COINDICENT W/ LLVL LIFT. WL
RAISE POPS TO LKLY BY AFTN. SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY SATD THRUT...AND AM
OVERALL NOT TOO IMPRESSED BY CNVCTV POTL-- SHRA NOT TSRA.

A CSTL FNT MAY DVLP BY EVNG...W/ A S/WV RIDING NWD LT NGT. GDNC
STRUGGLING A BIT W/ ITS DVLPMNT/PLACEMENT VS RDGG ON THE BACK SIDE
DOWN THE I-95 CRRDR. THAT WL DICATE PCPN TIMING FRI NGT. THTE SEEMS
TO BE SHUNTED TWD THE CST...AND SINCE FRONTOGENESIS PLAUSIBLE...WL
AIM POPS THAT WAY.

PER TEMPS...MAXT FRI WL BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PSBL PCPN. MOST
GDNC SUGGESTING UPR 70S/LWR 80S. ECMWF DISTINCTLY LWR...SPCLY IN
CENTRL SHEN VLY AND PTMC HIGHLANDS. HV MINIMZED RANGE FOR MIN-T FRI
NGT DUE TO WET AMS. DEWPTS LED THE WAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS REGION WILL GAIN INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS PVA
INCREASES AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MOVES CLOSE BY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY MIDDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE START OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET AT THIS TIME AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW BEGINS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA-TNGT. THERE ARE PATCHES OF FOG PRESENT ATTM. DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY WL DVLP OVER TERMINALS FOR MRNG PUSH. IF
INCORRECT...THEN FLGT RESTRICTIONS PLAUSIBLY CUD BRIEFLY REACH IFR.
LATER TDA...CU WL DVLP...BASES 050-070. THESE WL THICKEN TNGT...W/
CIGS FCST AT SAME RNG. FOG WL AGN BE A WILD CARD PREDAWN TMRW...BUT
SO MAY SCT SHRA. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WL BE KEEPING VFR FCST.

MSTR PROFILE INCREASES FRI-FRI NGT...SO SHRA CHCS INCR. THESE MAY
PROMPT FLGT RESTRICTIONS...W/ PDS VFR IN BTWN.

SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW MAINLY AOB 10 KT ATTM. TPLM2 PROVING TO BE THE EXCEPTION...
AS SENSOR ABLE TO TAP WNDS FM LLJ NEAR 15 KT. WL CONT TO MONITOR...
BUT WRF-ARW4 GDNC SUGGESTING WNDS WL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

ONCE WNDS SUBSIDE BY DAWN...AOB 10 KT SLY FLOW REMAIN THRU THE
DAY. LLJ INCR ONCE TNGT. NOT SOLD ON SCA CONDS YET...BUT WRF
SUGGESTING WL HV A BETTER CHC AT IT. HV CAPPED GRIDS BLO SCA...BUT
ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF PSBLTYS.

WNDS BACK ELY FRI-FRI NGT. SPDS NOT A FACTOR...MAINLY BLO 10 KT.
PCPN CHCS DO INCR...WHICH WUD OBSTRUCT VSBY.

A COASTAL FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310739
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND WILL
SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE INLAND. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SEND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EASTWARD. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS BROAD HIPRES ALONG THE ERN SEABRD OF THE
CONUS...WITH LOPRES N OF THE GRTLKS. THE LOW IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE
LINGERING ULVL CYCLONE...WHICH IS ROTATING SPOKES OF PVA ACRS THE
GRTLKS TWD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC. ONE SUCH VORT...EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR...DEPARTING NERN MD ATTM. THERE HV BEEN A FEW ASSOCD
SPRINKLES THRU THE NGT...BUT THE PREDAWN HRS SHUD BE DRY...AS RECENT
RDR TRENDS HV BEEN DECLINING...W/ THE NEAREST COLD CLD TOPS HEADED
TWD BUF. WL STILL HV INTERVALS OF CLDS THRU SUNRISE.

THRU THE DAYTIME HRS TDA...THE RDG FM THE ATLC WL GNLY BE THE
CONTROLLING WX FACTOR. FORCING NIL AT BEST...AND INSTBY VALUES
MEAGER. AM CARRYING A DRY FCST W/ MOSUN OR SUNNY SKIES. DUE TO THIS
INSOLATION AND WAA...MAXT WL BE WARMER THAN RECENT PAST. MOS GDNC IN
GNRL AGREEMENT...AND BLEND TAKEN.

THTE RDGG AND MID-LVL CNVGNC INCR TNGT. THUS...WUD ANTICIPATE BLDG
MID DECK CLDS...RISING DEWPTS AND POTL CRRDR OF PCPN. BOTH NAM/GFS
HV THIS...THO THE NAM SEEMS EXCESSIVELY WET FOR THE SITUATION. HV
SIDED W/ GFS...WHICH BRINGS CHC POPS JUST E OF THE SPINE OF THE
BLURDG PAST CHO TWD DC. LLVL WNDS IN THIS AREA SELY ARND PERIPHERY
OF RDG...WHICH WUD ADD A LTL UPSLOPE SUPPORT FOR PCPN DVLPMNT. QPF
LGT...AND AM KEEPING POPS NO HIER THAN 30 PCT...GNLY LT NGT/OVNGT
HRS. SINCE DEWPTS SHUD BE ABLE TO CRACK THE 60 DEGF BARRIER...MIN-T
WL BE IN THE 60S...AND A BIT HIER THAN THAT FOR DCA/DMH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PTTN CHG WL MANIFEST ITSELF FRI...AS H9-7 CONFLUENCE WL COAX GLFMEX
MSTR NEWD. WL STILL HV A THTE RDG SITUATED OVER THE MTNS...SO A
CRRDR OF FVRBL ISENT UPGLIDE WL RESIDE COINDICENT W/ LLVL LIFT. WL
RAISE POPS TO LKLY BY AFTN. SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY SATD THRUT...AND AM
OVERALL NOT TOO IMPRESSED BY CNVCTV POTL-- SHRA NOT TSRA.

A CSTL FNT MAY DVLP BY EVNG...W/ A S/WV RIDING NWD LT NGT. GDNC
STRUGGLING A BIT W/ ITS DVLPMNT/PLACEMENT VS RDGG ON THE BACK SIDE
DOWN THE I-95 CRRDR. THAT WL DICATE PCPN TIMING FRI NGT. THTE SEEMS
TO BE SHUNTED TWD THE CST...AND SINCE FRONTOGENESIS PLAUSIBLE...WL
AIM POPS THAT WAY.

PER TEMPS...MAXT FRI WL BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS AND PSBL PCPN. MOST
GDNC SUGGESTING UPR 70S/LWR 80S. ECMWF DISTINCTLY LWR...SPCLY IN
CENTRL SHEN VLY AND PTMC HIGHLANDS. HV MINIMZED RANGE FOR MIN-T FRI
NGT DUE TO WET AMS. DEWPTS LED THE WAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS REGION WILL GAIN INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS PVA
INCREASES AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MOVES CLOSE BY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY MIDDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE START OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET AT THIS TIME AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW BEGINS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA-TNGT. THERE ARE PATCHES OF FOG PRESENT ATTM. DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY WL DVLP OVER TERMINALS FOR MRNG PUSH. IF
INCORRECT...THEN FLGT RESTRICTIONS PLAUSIBLY CUD BRIEFLY REACH IFR.
LATER TDA...CU WL DVLP...BASES 050-070. THESE WL THICKEN TNGT...W/
CIGS FCST AT SAME RNG. FOG WL AGN BE A WILD CARD PREDAWN TMRW...BUT
SO MAY SCT SHRA. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WL BE KEEPING VFR FCST.

MSTR PROFILE INCREASES FRI-FRI NGT...SO SHRA CHCS INCR. THESE MAY
PROMPT FLGT RESTRICTIONS...W/ PDS VFR IN BTWN.

SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW MAINLY AOB 10 KT ATTM. TPLM2 PROVING TO BE THE EXCEPTION...
AS SENSOR ABLE TO TAP WNDS FM LLJ NEAR 15 KT. WL CONT TO MONITOR...
BUT WRF-ARW4 GDNC SUGGESTING WNDS WL REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

ONCE WNDS SUBSIDE BY DAWN...AOB 10 KT SLY FLOW REMAIN THRU THE
DAY. LLJ INCR ONCE TNGT. NOT SOLD ON SCA CONDS YET...BUT WRF
SUGGESTING WL HV A BETTER CHC AT IT. HV CAPPED GRIDS BLO SCA...BUT
ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF PSBLTYS.

WNDS BACK ELY FRI-FRI NGT. SPDS NOT A FACTOR...MAINLY BLO 10 KT.
PCPN CHCS DO INCR...WHICH WUD OBSTRUCT VSBY.

A COASTAL FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310250
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPS...BUT DID RAISE SKY COVER AS MID CLOUDS ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. LEFT TEMPERATURES AS IS...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO GO NEARLY
CALM FOR THE FORECAST TO BE REALIZED. THIS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IN THE CITIES AND HGIHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE LOWS WERE RAISED
IN AN EARLIER UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.

A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE
BROUGHT INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO CWA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT MIDWEEK WHEN A
COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO AND
PERHAPS KMRB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. LLJ
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT. NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME AS THE INVERSION SETS
UP OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT SOME GUSTS IN THE
TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHES
BAY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHILLY MORNING WITH A RECORD LOW OF 48 AT DULLES. THIS IS THE
COOLEST MORNING LOW IN JULY SINCE JULY 12TH 2002. NOT TO BE
OUTDONE...EVEN IN THE URBAN CENTER...THE MORNING LOW OF 60 AT REAGAN
WAS THE COOLEST IN JULY SINCE THAT SAME DATE IN 2002.

AT DULLES...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR THE COOLEST JULY SINCE 2001...AND
THE YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 51.5 DEGREES IS THE 5TH
COOLEST ON RECORD /DATING BACK TO 1962/.

AT BWI...A RECORD LOW WAS SET OF 55 DEGREES...THE COOLEST IN JULY
SINCE JULY 3RD 2007.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...JE/KS
MARINE...JE/KS
CLIMATE...JE






000
FXUS61 KLWX 310250
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPS...BUT DID RAISE SKY COVER AS MID CLOUDS ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. LEFT TEMPERATURES AS IS...BUT WINDS WILL NEED TO GO NEARLY
CALM FOR THE FORECAST TO BE REALIZED. THIS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IN THE CITIES AND HGIHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE LOWS WERE RAISED
IN AN EARLIER UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.

A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE
BROUGHT INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO CWA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT MIDWEEK WHEN A
COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO AND
PERHAPS KMRB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. LLJ
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT. NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME AS THE INVERSION SETS
UP OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT SOME GUSTS IN THE
TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHES
BAY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHILLY MORNING WITH A RECORD LOW OF 48 AT DULLES. THIS IS THE
COOLEST MORNING LOW IN JULY SINCE JULY 12TH 2002. NOT TO BE
OUTDONE...EVEN IN THE URBAN CENTER...THE MORNING LOW OF 60 AT REAGAN
WAS THE COOLEST IN JULY SINCE THAT SAME DATE IN 2002.

AT DULLES...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR THE COOLEST JULY SINCE 2001...AND
THE YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 51.5 DEGREES IS THE 5TH
COOLEST ON RECORD /DATING BACK TO 1962/.

AT BWI...A RECORD LOW WAS SET OF 55 DEGREES...THE COOLEST IN JULY
SINCE JULY 3RD 2007.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...JE/KS
MARINE...JE/KS
CLIMATE...JE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 302339
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
739 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN PA...THEN A SPLIT IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NRN WV...AND A STORM CLUSTER DIVING SOUTH WITH
OUTFLOW IN SWRN WV. THE 21Z HRRR SHOWS ALMOST THIS EXACT
PLACEMENT...THREE HOURS FROM NOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES ASIDE...THE
EVOLUTION SHOWN IN THE HRRR IS REASONABLE...WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS PA...AND THE WV ACTIVITY FALLING APART
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SWRN WV.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH RIGHT ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...THROUGHOUT THE EVENING FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. THUNDER LOOKS INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY AS
WE REACH SUNSET...PLUS INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED FURTHER
EAST...AND ALREADY THE CG LIGHTNING IS HALF WHAT WAS OCCURRING AN
HOUR AGO.

SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WITH THE 730 PM
UPDATE. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

MADE NO CHANGE TO TEMPS AT THIS EARLY STAGE. STILL EXPECT SOME
MAINLY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
MARTINSBURG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.

A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE
BROUGHT INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO CWA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT MIDWEEK WHEN A
COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO AND
PERHAPS KMRB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. LLJ
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT. NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME AS THE INVERSION SETS
UP OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT SOME GUSTS IN THE
TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHES
BAY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHILLY MORNING WITH A RECORD LOW OF 48 AT DULLES. THIS IS THE
COOLEST MORNING LOW IN JULY SINCE JULY 12TH 2002. NOT TO BE
OUTDONE...EVEN IN THE URBAN CENTER...THE MORNING LOW OF 60 AT REAGAN
WAS THE COOLEST IN JULY SINCE THAT SAME DATE IN 2002.

AT DULLES...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR THE COOLEST JULY SINCE 2001...AND
THE YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 51.5 DEGREES IS THE 5TH
COOLEST ON RECORD /DATING BACK TO 1962/.

AT BWI...A RECORD LOW WAS SET OF 55 DEGREES...THE COOLEST IN JULY
SINCE JULY 3RD 2007.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...JE/KS
MARINE...JE/KS
CLIMATE...JE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 302339
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
739 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN PA...THEN A SPLIT IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NRN WV...AND A STORM CLUSTER DIVING SOUTH WITH
OUTFLOW IN SWRN WV. THE 21Z HRRR SHOWS ALMOST THIS EXACT
PLACEMENT...THREE HOURS FROM NOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES ASIDE...THE
EVOLUTION SHOWN IN THE HRRR IS REASONABLE...WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS PA...AND THE WV ACTIVITY FALLING APART
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SWRN WV.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH RIGHT ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...THROUGHOUT THE EVENING FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. THUNDER LOOKS INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY AS
WE REACH SUNSET...PLUS INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED FURTHER
EAST...AND ALREADY THE CG LIGHTNING IS HALF WHAT WAS OCCURRING AN
HOUR AGO.

SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WITH THE 730 PM
UPDATE. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

MADE NO CHANGE TO TEMPS AT THIS EARLY STAGE. STILL EXPECT SOME
MAINLY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
MARTINSBURG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.

A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE
BROUGHT INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO CWA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT MIDWEEK WHEN A
COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO AND
PERHAPS KMRB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. LLJ
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT. NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME AS THE INVERSION SETS
UP OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT SOME GUSTS IN THE
TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHES
BAY.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHILLY MORNING WITH A RECORD LOW OF 48 AT DULLES. THIS IS THE
COOLEST MORNING LOW IN JULY SINCE JULY 12TH 2002. NOT TO BE
OUTDONE...EVEN IN THE URBAN CENTER...THE MORNING LOW OF 60 AT REAGAN
WAS THE COOLEST IN JULY SINCE THAT SAME DATE IN 2002.

AT DULLES...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR THE COOLEST JULY SINCE 2001...AND
THE YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 51.5 DEGREES IS THE 5TH
COOLEST ON RECORD /DATING BACK TO 1962/.

AT BWI...A RECORD LOW WAS SET OF 55 DEGREES...THE COOLEST IN JULY
SINCE JULY 3RD 2007.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...JE/KS
MARINE...JE/KS
CLIMATE...JE






000
FXUS61 KLWX 302047 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
445 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATCHING SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVER OHIO/PA MOVING INTO WV. HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT
SIX HOURS. WHILE I DID NOT CHANGE POPS THROUGH 00Z...BASED ON MODEL
TRENDS I DID ADD SOME POPS AFTER 00Z. WILL RE-ASSESS THESE WITH THE
00Z UPDATE. /ALSO SEE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION BELOW./

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PA AND ACROSS
OHIO...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE EVENING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
SINCE THE ATMOS OVER THIS AREA IS MORE STABLE. AFTERNOON TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTS
TO REACH 80.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE 60S IN URBAN
AREAS AND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.

A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE
BROUGHT INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO CWA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT MIDWEEK WHEN A
COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO WHERE
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH IN CASE THE LLJ STRENGTHENS BEFORE THE INVERSION SETS UP.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT
SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHES BAY.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHILLY MORNING WITH A RECORD LOW OF 48 AT DULLES. THIS IS THE
COOLEST MORNING LOW IN JULY SINCE JULY 12TH 2002. NOT TO BE
OUTDONE...EVEN IN THE URBAN CENTER...THE MORNING LOW OF 60 AT REAGAN
WAS THE COOLEST IN JULY SINCE THAT SAME DATE IN 2002.

AT DULLES...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR THE COOLEST JULY SINCE 2001...AND
THE YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 51.5 DEGREES IS THE 5TH
COOLEST ON RECORD /DATING BACK TO 1962/.

AT BWI...A RECORD LOW WAS SET OF 55 DEGREES...THE COOLEST IN JULY
SINCE JULY 3RD 2007.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...JE/KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...KCS/CEM/WOODY!
MARINE...KCS/CEM/WOODY!
CLIMATE...JE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 302047 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
445 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATCHING SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVER OHIO/PA MOVING INTO WV. HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT
SIX HOURS. WHILE I DID NOT CHANGE POPS THROUGH 00Z...BASED ON MODEL
TRENDS I DID ADD SOME POPS AFTER 00Z. WILL RE-ASSESS THESE WITH THE
00Z UPDATE. /ALSO SEE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION BELOW./

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PA AND ACROSS
OHIO...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE EVENING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
SINCE THE ATMOS OVER THIS AREA IS MORE STABLE. AFTERNOON TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTS
TO REACH 80.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE 60S IN URBAN
AREAS AND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.

A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE
BROUGHT INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO CWA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT MIDWEEK WHEN A
COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO WHERE
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH IN CASE THE LLJ STRENGTHENS BEFORE THE INVERSION SETS UP.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT
SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHES BAY.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHILLY MORNING WITH A RECORD LOW OF 48 AT DULLES. THIS IS THE
COOLEST MORNING LOW IN JULY SINCE JULY 12TH 2002. NOT TO BE
OUTDONE...EVEN IN THE URBAN CENTER...THE MORNING LOW OF 60 AT REAGAN
WAS THE COOLEST IN JULY SINCE THAT SAME DATE IN 2002.

AT DULLES...WE ARE ON TRACK FOR THE COOLEST JULY SINCE 2001...AND
THE YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 51.5 DEGREES IS THE 5TH
COOLEST ON RECORD /DATING BACK TO 1962/.

AT BWI...A RECORD LOW WAS SET OF 55 DEGREES...THE COOLEST IN JULY
SINCE JULY 3RD 2007.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...JE/KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...KCS/CEM/WOODY!
MARINE...KCS/CEM/WOODY!
CLIMATE...JE






000
FXUS61 KLWX 301838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PA
AND ACROSS OHIO...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AN UPPER
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE EVENING ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOME MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW SINCE THE ATMOS OVER THIS AREA IS MORE STABLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO REACH 80.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE 60S IN URBAN
AREAS AND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.

A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE BROUGHT
INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS
INTO CWA. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT
MIDWEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO WHERE
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH IN CASE THE LLJ STRENGTHENS BEFORE THE INVERSION SETS UP.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT
SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHES BAY.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...KCS/CEM/WOODY!
MARINE...KCS/CEM/WOODY!
CLIMATE...KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PA
AND ACROSS OHIO...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AN UPPER
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE EVENING ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOME MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW SINCE THE ATMOS OVER THIS AREA IS MORE STABLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO REACH 80.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE 60S IN URBAN
AREAS AND NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW
OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS OVER
THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MOST. SOME TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS. TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE UPPER
80S IN SOME URBAN LOCATIONS.

A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AN OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY FILL AND SHIFT OFF ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOISTURE BROUGHT
INTO THE CWA BY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NOT SO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS
INTO CWA. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN AT
MIDWEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT KCHO WHERE
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BETWEEN ANY SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY 10KT AND LESS OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT S-SW WINDS ALOFT.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO GUST DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH IN CASE THE LLJ STRENGTHENS BEFORE THE INVERSION SETS UP.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED...BUT
SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHES BAY.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...KCS/CEM/WOODY!
MARINE...KCS/CEM/WOODY!
CLIMATE...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301441
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TODAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 12Z IAD MODIFIED
SOUNDING LACKS INSTABILITY WITH A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND JUST SHOWERS OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN METRO
DC...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUN.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS
CLIMATE...KCS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301441
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TODAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 12Z IAD MODIFIED
SOUNDING LACKS INSTABILITY WITH A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND JUST SHOWERS OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN METRO
DC...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUN.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS
CLIMATE...KCS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301441
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TODAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 12Z IAD MODIFIED
SOUNDING LACKS INSTABILITY WITH A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND JUST SHOWERS OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN METRO
DC...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUN.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS
CLIMATE...KCS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301441
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TODAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 12Z IAD MODIFIED
SOUNDING LACKS INSTABILITY WITH A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND JUST SHOWERS OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN METRO
DC...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUN.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS
CLIMATE...KCS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
508 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN
COOL AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

IAD BROKE THEIR RECORD LOW FOR TDA AT 5 AM W/ A READING OF 50.
BWI HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 56.

PRVS DSCN...

WELL..IF YOU HV TO BE AWAKE OVRNGT AT THE END OF JUL THIS IS THE
WAY TO DO IT - GNRLY CLR SKIES W/ TEMPS MORE LK LATE SEP THAN LATE
JUL.

THE 2 AM TEMP ROUND UP SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LM60S IN THE CITIES AND
ALONG THE WATER...BUT DROPPING INTO THE LM50S W OF I-95. THIS
COURTESY OF THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF WHICH HAS RMND FAIRLY STATIONARY
FOR THE PAST WK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY PHX WAS READING
100 DEGS AT 11 PM THEIR TIME.

THE TUE HIGHS WERE ALL IN THE 70S! AGN ALL IN LN W/ THE LATTER
HALF OF SEPT. XPCT W/ LGT WINDS TDA THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME SFC
WARMING SO XPCT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE L80S E OF THE BLU RDG..70S W.

MDLS ARE IMPLYING SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT RATHER
THAN TALKING ABT A TSTM OUTBRK IT LOOKS MORE LK RW FORMING OVR THE
ERN GRT LKS DURG MID AFTN AND THEN TRACKING SE. HV SOME LOW END
POPS W OF THE BLU RDG LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 300908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
508 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN
COOL AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

IAD BROKE THEIR RECORD LOW FOR TDA AT 5 AM W/ A READING OF 50.
BWI HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 56.

PRVS DSCN...

WELL..IF YOU HV TO BE AWAKE OVRNGT AT THE END OF JUL THIS IS THE
WAY TO DO IT - GNRLY CLR SKIES W/ TEMPS MORE LK LATE SEP THAN LATE
JUL.

THE 2 AM TEMP ROUND UP SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LM60S IN THE CITIES AND
ALONG THE WATER...BUT DROPPING INTO THE LM50S W OF I-95. THIS
COURTESY OF THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF WHICH HAS RMND FAIRLY STATIONARY
FOR THE PAST WK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY PHX WAS READING
100 DEGS AT 11 PM THEIR TIME.

THE TUE HIGHS WERE ALL IN THE 70S! AGN ALL IN LN W/ THE LATTER
HALF OF SEPT. XPCT W/ LGT WINDS TDA THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME SFC
WARMING SO XPCT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE L80S E OF THE BLU RDG..70S W.

MDLS ARE IMPLYING SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT RATHER
THAN TALKING ABT A TSTM OUTBRK IT LOOKS MORE LK RW FORMING OVR THE
ERN GRT LKS DURG MID AFTN AND THEN TRACKING SE. HV SOME LOW END
POPS W OF THE BLU RDG LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300724
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
324 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN
COOL AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

WELL..IF YOU HV TO BE AWAKE OVRNGT AT THE END OF JUL THIS IS THE
WAY TO DO IT - GNRLY CLR SKIES W/ TEMPS MORE LK LATE SEP THAN LATE
JUL.

IAD RECORD LOW FOR TDA IS 51 SET IN 1981. THIS WAS TIED AT 3 AM.

THE 2 AM TEMP ROUND UP SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LM60S IN THE CITIES AND
ALONG THE WATER...BUT DROPPING INTO THE LM50S W OF I-95. THIS
COURTESY OF THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF WHICH HAS RMND FAIRLY STATIONARY
FOR THE PAST WK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY PHX WAS READING
100 DEGS AT 11 PM THEIR TIME.

THE TUE HIGHS WERE ALL IN THE 70S! AGN ALL IN LN W/ THE LATTER
HALF OF SEPT. XPCT W/ LGT WINDS TDA THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME SFC
WARMING SO XPCT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE L80S E OF THE BLU RDG..70S W.

MDLS ARE IMPLYING SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT RATHER
THAN TALKING ABT A TSTM OUTBRK IT LOOKS MORE LK RW FORMING OVR THE
ERN GRT LKS DURG MID AFTN AND THEN TRACKING SE. HV SOME LOW END
POPS W OF THE BLU RDG LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300724
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
324 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN
COOL AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

WELL..IF YOU HV TO BE AWAKE OVRNGT AT THE END OF JUL THIS IS THE
WAY TO DO IT - GNRLY CLR SKIES W/ TEMPS MORE LK LATE SEP THAN LATE
JUL.

IAD RECORD LOW FOR TDA IS 51 SET IN 1981. THIS WAS TIED AT 3 AM.

THE 2 AM TEMP ROUND UP SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LM60S IN THE CITIES AND
ALONG THE WATER...BUT DROPPING INTO THE LM50S W OF I-95. THIS
COURTESY OF THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF WHICH HAS RMND FAIRLY STATIONARY
FOR THE PAST WK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY PHX WAS READING
100 DEGS AT 11 PM THEIR TIME.

THE TUE HIGHS WERE ALL IN THE 70S! AGN ALL IN LN W/ THE LATTER
HALF OF SEPT. XPCT W/ LGT WINDS TDA THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME SFC
WARMING SO XPCT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE L80S E OF THE BLU RDG..70S W.

MDLS ARE IMPLYING SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT RATHER
THAN TALKING ABT A TSTM OUTBRK IT LOOKS MORE LK RW FORMING OVR THE
ERN GRT LKS DURG MID AFTN AND THEN TRACKING SE. HV SOME LOW END
POPS W OF THE BLU RDG LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300250
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE
LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN
PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY
AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST
WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST
A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BELOW IS A LIST
OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECORD VALUES FOR JULY 30TH.

SITE...RECORD (YEAR)...FORECAST...
DCA....56 (1914).......59.........
BWI....56 (1997)*......58.........
IAD....51 (1981).......53.........

*ALSO OCCURRED IN 1981

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS
MARINE...BPP/CAS
CLIMATE...DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300250
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE
LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN
PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY
AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST
WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST
A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BELOW IS A LIST
OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECORD VALUES FOR JULY 30TH.

SITE...RECORD (YEAR)...FORECAST...
DCA....56 (1914).......59.........
BWI....56 (1997)*......58.........
IAD....51 (1981).......53.........

*ALSO OCCURRED IN 1981

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS
MARINE...BPP/CAS
CLIMATE...DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300106
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE
LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN
PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY
AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST
WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST
A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS
MARINE...BPP/CAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300106
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE
LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN
PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY
AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST
WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST
A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS
MARINE...BPP/CAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291806
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
206 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS WEDNESDAY/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F.

COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...60S IN THE WEST. ODD FOR JULY STRATOCU HAVE POPPED UP WITH
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS. THAT SHOULD ALL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WITH THAT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BY EARLY WED
MORNING...EVEN SOME 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT 60 TO 65 IN THE
URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED TDA. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG FOR CHO-MRB EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTED.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC TODAY. EXTENDED AND EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADV TO ALL OF
POTOMAC AND BAY S OF SANDY POINT TIL 5 PM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. HIGHEST REPORTED
GUSTS ARE ACTUALLY ON THE UPPER AND MID POTOMAC WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE AS OF 130PM.

STARTING TONIGHT...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ532>537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 291806
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
206 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS WEDNESDAY/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F.

COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...60S IN THE WEST. ODD FOR JULY STRATOCU HAVE POPPED UP WITH
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS. THAT SHOULD ALL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WITH THAT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BY EARLY WED
MORNING...EVEN SOME 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT 60 TO 65 IN THE
URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED TDA. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG FOR CHO-MRB EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTED.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC TODAY. EXTENDED AND EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADV TO ALL OF
POTOMAC AND BAY S OF SANDY POINT TIL 5 PM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. HIGHEST REPORTED
GUSTS ARE ACTUALLY ON THE UPPER AND MID POTOMAC WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE AS OF 130PM.

STARTING TONIGHT...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ532>537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 291432
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WEEK`S END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F. SOME
DISCUSSION ON NWSCHAT THIS MORNING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES OVER THE AREA. ALSO BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND POTOMAC EARLY TODAY. SO
FAR...JUST BELOW...BUT POSSIBLY COULD BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT TIME
TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER ONTARIO TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. NRLY WINDS WILL BRING XTRMLY PLSNT
WX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3 YRS MAKES: 7/29/11 HIGH TEMPS - DCA 104..IAD
103..BWI 101...ALL RECORDS FOR THIS DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL TROF WL CONT TO SPIN WHILE THE DESERT SW BAKES UNDER THE
UPR RDG. FCST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WED. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WED AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RMN BLO NRML...BARELY REACHING
80 DEG.

WED NGT CONTS TO BE VERY COMFORTABLE W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W OF
I-95...MU60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL REMAIN IN THE WRN ATLC THRU THE XTND PD...SUPPORTING
SLY RETURN FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. ANOTHER KEY PLAYER IN THE WX PTTN
FOR THE UPCOMING PD WL BE THE DP UPR LOW...WHICH WL REMAIN N OF
THE GRTLKS THRU THE WK...EVOLVING INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED TROF
AXIS FOR THE WKND. THUS...WL BE TRANSITIONING FM A PD OF COOL/DRY
WX TO A PD WHERE DAILY POPS NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

WL KEEP THU DRY DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN UPGLIDE/THTE/MSTR
ADVCTN BECOME TOO MUCH TO IGNORE. SUSPECT WE/LL HV SOME PVA TOO BY
THE WKND...BUT THATS TOO FICKLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. INSTBY REMAINS
MODEST...BUT SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDER.
WL KEEP SHRA FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS.

NORMAL HIGHS FOR ELY AUG UPR 80S...W/ LOWS ARND 70F IN THE URBAN
DOWNTOWNS AND IN THE 60S OUTLYING AREAS. TEMP FCSTS THRUT THIS PD
BLO NORMAL. THU MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY DUE TO INSOLATION AND LACK OF
PCPN...BUT EVEN THEN MAXT MID 80S W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TDA. PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THU...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
FRI AND SAT...MAINLY VFR THO MAY HV LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC EARLY TODAY. SO FAR...JUST BELOW...BUT POSSIBLY COULD BE
REISSUED FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TDA. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS
XPCTD BY LATE TDA AND WED ON THE WATERS.

HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW THU
WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT.
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...STRONG
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 291432
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WEEK`S END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F. SOME
DISCUSSION ON NWSCHAT THIS MORNING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES OVER THE AREA. ALSO BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND POTOMAC EARLY TODAY. SO
FAR...JUST BELOW...BUT POSSIBLY COULD BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT TIME
TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER ONTARIO TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. NRLY WINDS WILL BRING XTRMLY PLSNT
WX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3 YRS MAKES: 7/29/11 HIGH TEMPS - DCA 104..IAD
103..BWI 101...ALL RECORDS FOR THIS DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL TROF WL CONT TO SPIN WHILE THE DESERT SW BAKES UNDER THE
UPR RDG. FCST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WED. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WED AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RMN BLO NRML...BARELY REACHING
80 DEG.

WED NGT CONTS TO BE VERY COMFORTABLE W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W OF
I-95...MU60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL REMAIN IN THE WRN ATLC THRU THE XTND PD...SUPPORTING
SLY RETURN FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. ANOTHER KEY PLAYER IN THE WX PTTN
FOR THE UPCOMING PD WL BE THE DP UPR LOW...WHICH WL REMAIN N OF
THE GRTLKS THRU THE WK...EVOLVING INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED TROF
AXIS FOR THE WKND. THUS...WL BE TRANSITIONING FM A PD OF COOL/DRY
WX TO A PD WHERE DAILY POPS NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

WL KEEP THU DRY DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN UPGLIDE/THTE/MSTR
ADVCTN BECOME TOO MUCH TO IGNORE. SUSPECT WE/LL HV SOME PVA TOO BY
THE WKND...BUT THATS TOO FICKLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. INSTBY REMAINS
MODEST...BUT SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDER.
WL KEEP SHRA FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS.

NORMAL HIGHS FOR ELY AUG UPR 80S...W/ LOWS ARND 70F IN THE URBAN
DOWNTOWNS AND IN THE 60S OUTLYING AREAS. TEMP FCSTS THRUT THIS PD
BLO NORMAL. THU MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY DUE TO INSOLATION AND LACK OF
PCPN...BUT EVEN THEN MAXT MID 80S W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TDA. PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THU...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
FRI AND SAT...MAINLY VFR THO MAY HV LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC EARLY TODAY. SO FAR...JUST BELOW...BUT POSSIBLY COULD BE
REISSUED FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TDA. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS
XPCTD BY LATE TDA AND WED ON THE WATERS.

HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW THU
WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT.
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...STRONG
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS







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