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000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221732
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED TO ERN N CAROLINA. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVR
THE MID ATLC AS A RESULT. IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE 12Z
IAD SNDGS YDA AND THIS MRNG. BOTH WERE VERY DRY. FRI MRNG`S 24 HR
TEMPS CHG WAS NEUTRAL AT THE SFC THEN MARKEDLY COLDER THRU 600 MB
W/ A NEAR NRML LAPSE RATE THRU 800 MB THEN ISOTHERMAL TO 500 MB.
THIS MRNG SHOWED MUCH COLDER TEMPS AT THE SFC THEN STRONG WRMG
THRU 600 MB. THE TEMP PROFILE SHOWED A STRONG RADIATIONAL
INVERSION AT THE SFC.

HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TDA-TNGT.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN HV SEEN MULTIPLE GUSTS A20 KT AT VARIOUS CSTL LOCATIONS AN
SCA WAS ISSUED INTO THE EARLY EVENG HRS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/KCS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 221732
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED TO ERN N CAROLINA. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVR
THE MID ATLC AS A RESULT. IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE 12Z
IAD SNDGS YDA AND THIS MRNG. BOTH WERE VERY DRY. FRI MRNG`S 24 HR
TEMPS CHG WAS NEUTRAL AT THE SFC THEN MARKEDLY COLDER THRU 600 MB
W/ A NEAR NRML LAPSE RATE THRU 800 MB THEN ISOTHERMAL TO 500 MB.
THIS MRNG SHOWED MUCH COLDER TEMPS AT THE SFC THEN STRONG WRMG
THRU 600 MB. THE TEMP PROFILE SHOWED A STRONG RADIATIONAL
INVERSION AT THE SFC.

HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TDA-TNGT.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN HV SEEN MULTIPLE GUSTS A20 KT AT VARIOUS CSTL LOCATIONS AN
SCA WAS ISSUED INTO THE EARLY EVENG HRS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 221508
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1008 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED TO ERN N CAROLINA. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVR
THE MID ATLC AS A RESULT. COLD TEMPS B4 SUNRISE - SEE CLIMATE SXN
BLO. IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE 12Z IAD SNDGS YDA AND THIS
MRNG. BOTH WERE VERY DRY. FRI MRNG`S 24 HR TEMPS CHG WAS NEUTRAL
AT THE SFC THEN MARKEDLY COLDER THRU 600 MB W/ A NEAR NRML LAPSE
RATE THRU 800 MB THEN ISOTHERMAL TO 500 MB. THIS MRNG SHOWED MUCH
COLDER TEMPS AT THE SFC THEN STRONG WRMG THRU 600 MB. THE TEMP
PROFILE SHOWED A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION AT THE SFC.

GOING OUTSIDE AT 10 AM IT APPEARS THE INVERSION HAS BKN FM THE
MRNG SUN AS WINDS HV GONE SRLY. THIS WL LEAD TO DECENT WRMG THRU
THE AFTN HRS. HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR TDA-TNGT.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY WINDS ON THE WATERS THIS WKND. WHILE THERE WL PDS W/ DECENT
FLOW...MIXING WL BE QUITE POOR OVER LWR-MID 40S WATER TEMPS. HV
CAPPED WINDS AOB 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

CLIMATE...
ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 221508
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1008 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED TO ERN N CAROLINA. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVR
THE MID ATLC AS A RESULT. COLD TEMPS B4 SUNRISE - SEE CLIMATE SXN
BLO. IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE 12Z IAD SNDGS YDA AND THIS
MRNG. BOTH WERE VERY DRY. FRI MRNG`S 24 HR TEMPS CHG WAS NEUTRAL
AT THE SFC THEN MARKEDLY COLDER THRU 600 MB W/ A NEAR NRML LAPSE
RATE THRU 800 MB THEN ISOTHERMAL TO 500 MB. THIS MRNG SHOWED MUCH
COLDER TEMPS AT THE SFC THEN STRONG WRMG THRU 600 MB. THE TEMP
PROFILE SHOWED A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION AT THE SFC.

GOING OUTSIDE AT 10 AM IT APPEARS THE INVERSION HAS BKN FM THE
MRNG SUN AS WINDS HV GONE SRLY. THIS WL LEAD TO DECENT WRMG THRU
THE AFTN HRS. HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR TDA-TNGT.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY WINDS ON THE WATERS THIS WKND. WHILE THERE WL PDS W/ DECENT
FLOW...MIXING WL BE QUITE POOR OVER LWR-MID 40S WATER TEMPS. HV
CAPPED WINDS AOB 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

CLIMATE...
ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220844
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES ATOP CWFA ELY THIS MRNG. W/ CLR SKIES AND LTL/NO WIND...
TEMPS WUD HV AN OPPORTUNITY TO DROP TO DEWPTS IN THE TEENS. HWVR...
WAA SEEMS TO BE HVG AN INFLUENCE AS TEMPS HV LVLD OFF PAST FEW HRS.

SFC HIGH WL MOVE OFFSHORE TDA...PROVIDING SWLY FLOW TO CWFA. AS
SUCH...WAA WL INCREASE. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C
BY DAYS END. HENCE...AM REFLECTING A SHARP WARM UP IN MAXT...NEAR
MAV/MET/ECS BLEND. /ECS SOLN A COMPROMISE OF THE OTHER TWO ANYWAY./
ONLY WRINKLE WL BE ISENT LIFT INDUCING SOME CLDCVR...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN. SEEMS LIKE ANY DECENT LIFT REMAINS CONFINED NW OF CWFA...
SO WL KEEP FCST DRY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TDA-TNGT. MOST CLDS WL BE MID-DECK.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...
WL HV SLY WINDS ON THE WATERS THIS WKND. WHILE THERE WL PDS W/
DECENT FLOW...MIXING WL BE QUITE POOR OVER LWR-MID 40S WATER TEMPS.
HV CAPPED WINDS AOB 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STILL HV WATER LVLS 1/2 TO 1 FT BLO ASTRO TIDES. WINDS WILL BECOME
SLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WL BRING WATER BACK TO NORMAL LVLS. MAY
EVEN BE A PINCH ABV NORMAL BY THIS EVENING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...KCS
AVIATION...HTS/KCS
MARINE...HTS/KCS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220844
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES ATOP CWFA ELY THIS MRNG. W/ CLR SKIES AND LTL/NO WIND...
TEMPS WUD HV AN OPPORTUNITY TO DROP TO DEWPTS IN THE TEENS. HWVR...
WAA SEEMS TO BE HVG AN INFLUENCE AS TEMPS HV LVLD OFF PAST FEW HRS.

SFC HIGH WL MOVE OFFSHORE TDA...PROVIDING SWLY FLOW TO CWFA. AS
SUCH...WAA WL INCREASE. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C
BY DAYS END. HENCE...AM REFLECTING A SHARP WARM UP IN MAXT...NEAR
MAV/MET/ECS BLEND. /ECS SOLN A COMPROMISE OF THE OTHER TWO ANYWAY./
ONLY WRINKLE WL BE ISENT LIFT INDUCING SOME CLDCVR...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN. SEEMS LIKE ANY DECENT LIFT REMAINS CONFINED NW OF CWFA...
SO WL KEEP FCST DRY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TDA-TNGT. MOST CLDS WL BE MID-DECK.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...
WL HV SLY WINDS ON THE WATERS THIS WKND. WHILE THERE WL PDS W/
DECENT FLOW...MIXING WL BE QUITE POOR OVER LWR-MID 40S WATER TEMPS.
HV CAPPED WINDS AOB 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STILL HV WATER LVLS 1/2 TO 1 FT BLO ASTRO TIDES. WINDS WILL BECOME
SLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WL BRING WATER BACK TO NORMAL LVLS. MAY
EVEN BE A PINCH ABV NORMAL BY THIS EVENING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...KCS
AVIATION...HTS/KCS
MARINE...HTS/KCS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WIND UP ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WERE OVERHEAD...AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALREADY UNDERWAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A
COLD NIGHT. USED BC ADJMET/SREFS TO RE-POPULATE MINIMA...WHICH
RESULTED IN A 1 TO 2 DEG F REDUCTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE FOR SAT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND CHANNELLING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS UP THE BAY BUT
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/ADS/CEM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WIND UP ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WERE OVERHEAD...AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALREADY UNDERWAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A
COLD NIGHT. USED BC ADJMET/SREFS TO RE-POPULATE MINIMA...WHICH
RESULTED IN A 1 TO 2 DEG F REDUCTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE FOR SAT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND CHANNELLING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS UP THE BAY BUT
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/ADS/CEM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WIND UP ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WERE OVERHEAD...AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALREADY UNDERWAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A
COLD NIGHT. USED BC ADJMET/SREFS TO RE-POPULATE MINIMA...WHICH
RESULTED IN A 1 TO 2 DEG F REDUCTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE FOR SAT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND CHANNELLING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS UP THE BAY BUT
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/ADS/CEM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WIND UP ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WERE OVERHEAD...AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALREADY UNDERWAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A
COLD NIGHT. USED BC ADJMET/SREFS TO RE-POPULATE MINIMA...WHICH
RESULTED IN A 1 TO 2 DEG F REDUCTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE FOR SAT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND CHANNELLING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS UP THE BAY BUT
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/ADS/CEM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211956
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

NO PROBS FORESEEN IN THE MID ATLC TNGT. 12Z IAD SNDG REALLY SUMMED
IT UP - 0.11" PWAT. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO CLR
SKIES. THIS COMBINED W/ LGT WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF AFTR
SUNSET. U20S IN THE CITIES...A20 MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA...TEENS
IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT...BUT XPCT WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING TO BLO SCA LVLS
BY SHORTLY AFTR SUNSET. NO PROBS ON THE WATERS XPCTD SAT OR SAT NGT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS WERE SLTLY OVR ONE FT BLO NRML DURG THE LATE MRNG HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH WATER LVLS SHOULD REBOUND AS
TEH NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE APRCHS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211956
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

NO PROBS FORESEEN IN THE MID ATLC TNGT. 12Z IAD SNDG REALLY SUMMED
IT UP - 0.11" PWAT. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO CLR
SKIES. THIS COMBINED W/ LGT WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF AFTR
SUNSET. U20S IN THE CITIES...A20 MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA...TEENS
IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT...BUT XPCT WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING TO BLO SCA LVLS
BY SHORTLY AFTR SUNSET. NO PROBS ON THE WATERS XPCTD SAT OR SAT NGT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS WERE SLTLY OVR ONE FT BLO NRML DURG THE LATE MRNG HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH WATER LVLS SHOULD REBOUND AS
TEH NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE APRCHS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211956
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

NO PROBS FORESEEN IN THE MID ATLC TNGT. 12Z IAD SNDG REALLY SUMMED
IT UP - 0.11" PWAT. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO CLR
SKIES. THIS COMBINED W/ LGT WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF AFTR
SUNSET. U20S IN THE CITIES...A20 MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA...TEENS
IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT...BUT XPCT WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING TO BLO SCA LVLS
BY SHORTLY AFTR SUNSET. NO PROBS ON THE WATERS XPCTD SAT OR SAT NGT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS WERE SLTLY OVR ONE FT BLO NRML DURG THE LATE MRNG HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH WATER LVLS SHOULD REBOUND AS
TEH NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE APRCHS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211956
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

NO PROBS FORESEEN IN THE MID ATLC TNGT. 12Z IAD SNDG REALLY SUMMED
IT UP - 0.11" PWAT. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO CLR
SKIES. THIS COMBINED W/ LGT WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF AFTR
SUNSET. U20S IN THE CITIES...A20 MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA...TEENS
IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT...BUT XPCT WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING TO BLO SCA LVLS
BY SHORTLY AFTR SUNSET. NO PROBS ON THE WATERS XPCTD SAT OR SAT NGT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS WERE SLTLY OVR ONE FT BLO NRML DURG THE LATE MRNG HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH WATER LVLS SHOULD REBOUND AS
TEH NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE APRCHS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211547
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN BRINGING A COOL AND SUNNY DAY. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT WHICH WL BE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVR FCST AREA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV A
FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPS U20S IN THE CITIES...GNRLY L20S AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...
BECOME LGT TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CHES BAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW TIDE CYCLE...W/ TIDES OF 1 FT
BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY BUT W/
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/AS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211547
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN BRINGING A COOL AND SUNNY DAY. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT WHICH WL BE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVR FCST AREA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV A
FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPS U20S IN THE CITIES...GNRLY L20S AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...
BECOME LGT TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CHES BAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW TIDE CYCLE...W/ TIDES OF 1 FT
BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY BUT W/
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/AS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211547
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN BRINGING A COOL AND SUNNY DAY. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT WHICH WL BE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVR FCST AREA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV A
FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPS U20S IN THE CITIES...GNRLY L20S AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...
BECOME LGT TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CHES BAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW TIDE CYCLE...W/ TIDES OF 1 FT
BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY BUT W/
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/AS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211547
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN BRINGING A COOL AND SUNNY DAY. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT WHICH WL BE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVR FCST AREA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV A
FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPS U20S IN THE CITIES...GNRLY L20S AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...
BECOME LGT TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CHES BAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW TIDE CYCLE...W/ TIDES OF 1 FT
BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY BUT W/
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/AS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210826
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT RESIDES ACRS SERN VA ELY THIS MRNG...AND WL BE PULLING
FURTHER AWAY. THE STRONG PD OF CAA ONGOING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PDS OF GUSTY WINDS OVNGT. WHILE THESE WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TWD DAWN...XPCT THEM TO BE REINVIGORATED AFTER SUNRISE. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

CLDS EVIDENT ON SATPIX BANKED UP AGAINST THE APLCNS...BUT ALSO HV A
STREAK ACRS NWRN CWFA. THESE APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THRML TROF...
AND XPCT THEM TO PLAY A ROLE TIL ABT NOON. SUBSIDENCE WL BECOME AN
INCRSG FACTOR INTO THE AFTN...NOT TO MENTION DOWNSLOPING...SO CLDS
WL STRUGGLE TO LAST THRUT THE AFTN. SIMILARLY...TIMEFRAME WHERE
UPSLP SHSN FVRBL CONTS TIL ABT MIDDAY. WLY TRAJ AND LOW DEWPTS WL
WORK AGAINST APPRECIABLE ACCUMS. AM KEEPING PRVS POPS/AMTS.

SINCE H8 TEMPS DROP TO -14C...BELIEVE PTTN SUPPORTS TEMPS COLDER
THAN MOS. HV MODERATED MAXT FCST BY A CPL DEGF...BUT IT STILL WL BE
A CHALLENGE TO GET TEMPS ABV FRZG ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES CRESTS ATOP CWFA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV
A FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. WENT ON LOW SIDE OF GDNC...AND IN
SOME CASES A DEGF OR TWO UNDER THAT.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS THIS MRNG/MIDDAY AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
CIGS WL BE 050-070. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...BECOME LGT
TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.
&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS ONGOING...AND GNLY XPCT IT TO CONT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LESSENING TWD DAWN...BUT
GUSTINESS WL RETURN UPON SUNRISE. MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING
THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES MAY APPROACH 2 FT
BY LOW TIDE THIS AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS
MARINE...HTS/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210826
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT RESIDES ACRS SERN VA ELY THIS MRNG...AND WL BE PULLING
FURTHER AWAY. THE STRONG PD OF CAA ONGOING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PDS OF GUSTY WINDS OVNGT. WHILE THESE WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TWD DAWN...XPCT THEM TO BE REINVIGORATED AFTER SUNRISE. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

CLDS EVIDENT ON SATPIX BANKED UP AGAINST THE APLCNS...BUT ALSO HV A
STREAK ACRS NWRN CWFA. THESE APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THRML TROF...
AND XPCT THEM TO PLAY A ROLE TIL ABT NOON. SUBSIDENCE WL BECOME AN
INCRSG FACTOR INTO THE AFTN...NOT TO MENTION DOWNSLOPING...SO CLDS
WL STRUGGLE TO LAST THRUT THE AFTN. SIMILARLY...TIMEFRAME WHERE
UPSLP SHSN FVRBL CONTS TIL ABT MIDDAY. WLY TRAJ AND LOW DEWPTS WL
WORK AGAINST APPRECIABLE ACCUMS. AM KEEPING PRVS POPS/AMTS.

SINCE H8 TEMPS DROP TO -14C...BELIEVE PTTN SUPPORTS TEMPS COLDER
THAN MOS. HV MODERATED MAXT FCST BY A CPL DEGF...BUT IT STILL WL BE
A CHALLENGE TO GET TEMPS ABV FRZG ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES CRESTS ATOP CWFA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV
A FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. WENT ON LOW SIDE OF GDNC...AND IN
SOME CASES A DEGF OR TWO UNDER THAT.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS THIS MRNG/MIDDAY AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
CIGS WL BE 050-070. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...BECOME LGT
TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.
&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS ONGOING...AND GNLY XPCT IT TO CONT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LESSENING TWD DAWN...BUT
GUSTINESS WL RETURN UPON SUNRISE. MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING
THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES MAY APPROACH 2 FT
BY LOW TIDE THIS AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS
MARINE...HTS/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210826
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT RESIDES ACRS SERN VA ELY THIS MRNG...AND WL BE PULLING
FURTHER AWAY. THE STRONG PD OF CAA ONGOING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PDS OF GUSTY WINDS OVNGT. WHILE THESE WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TWD DAWN...XPCT THEM TO BE REINVIGORATED AFTER SUNRISE. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

CLDS EVIDENT ON SATPIX BANKED UP AGAINST THE APLCNS...BUT ALSO HV A
STREAK ACRS NWRN CWFA. THESE APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THRML TROF...
AND XPCT THEM TO PLAY A ROLE TIL ABT NOON. SUBSIDENCE WL BECOME AN
INCRSG FACTOR INTO THE AFTN...NOT TO MENTION DOWNSLOPING...SO CLDS
WL STRUGGLE TO LAST THRUT THE AFTN. SIMILARLY...TIMEFRAME WHERE
UPSLP SHSN FVRBL CONTS TIL ABT MIDDAY. WLY TRAJ AND LOW DEWPTS WL
WORK AGAINST APPRECIABLE ACCUMS. AM KEEPING PRVS POPS/AMTS.

SINCE H8 TEMPS DROP TO -14C...BELIEVE PTTN SUPPORTS TEMPS COLDER
THAN MOS. HV MODERATED MAXT FCST BY A CPL DEGF...BUT IT STILL WL BE
A CHALLENGE TO GET TEMPS ABV FRZG ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES CRESTS ATOP CWFA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV
A FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. WENT ON LOW SIDE OF GDNC...AND IN
SOME CASES A DEGF OR TWO UNDER THAT.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS THIS MRNG/MIDDAY AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
CIGS WL BE 050-070. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...BECOME LGT
TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.
&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS ONGOING...AND GNLY XPCT IT TO CONT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LESSENING TWD DAWN...BUT
GUSTINESS WL RETURN UPON SUNRISE. MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING
THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES MAY APPROACH 2 FT
BY LOW TIDE THIS AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS
MARINE...HTS/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210826
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT RESIDES ACRS SERN VA ELY THIS MRNG...AND WL BE PULLING
FURTHER AWAY. THE STRONG PD OF CAA ONGOING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PDS OF GUSTY WINDS OVNGT. WHILE THESE WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TWD DAWN...XPCT THEM TO BE REINVIGORATED AFTER SUNRISE. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

CLDS EVIDENT ON SATPIX BANKED UP AGAINST THE APLCNS...BUT ALSO HV A
STREAK ACRS NWRN CWFA. THESE APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THRML TROF...
AND XPCT THEM TO PLAY A ROLE TIL ABT NOON. SUBSIDENCE WL BECOME AN
INCRSG FACTOR INTO THE AFTN...NOT TO MENTION DOWNSLOPING...SO CLDS
WL STRUGGLE TO LAST THRUT THE AFTN. SIMILARLY...TIMEFRAME WHERE
UPSLP SHSN FVRBL CONTS TIL ABT MIDDAY. WLY TRAJ AND LOW DEWPTS WL
WORK AGAINST APPRECIABLE ACCUMS. AM KEEPING PRVS POPS/AMTS.

SINCE H8 TEMPS DROP TO -14C...BELIEVE PTTN SUPPORTS TEMPS COLDER
THAN MOS. HV MODERATED MAXT FCST BY A CPL DEGF...BUT IT STILL WL BE
A CHALLENGE TO GET TEMPS ABV FRZG ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES CRESTS ATOP CWFA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV
A FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. WENT ON LOW SIDE OF GDNC...AND IN
SOME CASES A DEGF OR TWO UNDER THAT.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS THIS MRNG/MIDDAY AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
CIGS WL BE 050-070. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...BECOME LGT
TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.
&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS ONGOING...AND GNLY XPCT IT TO CONT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LESSENING TWD DAWN...BUT
GUSTINESS WL RETURN UPON SUNRISE. MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING
THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES MAY APPROACH 2 FT
BY LOW TIDE THIS AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS
MARINE...HTS/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210136
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
836 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 01Z...COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOOKED
TO BE STRETCHED FROM ST MARYS COUNTY MD BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT SOME WIND /10 MPH/
WILL CONTINUE GIVEN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE
CWA SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THEN SOME OROGRAPHIC
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
LEAD TO NWLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
DC METRO AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1ST PART OF THE XTND IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HIGH PRES OVR THE
AREA FRI NGT INTO THE 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NGT FRI
W/ LOWS IN THE U TEENS MUCH OF THE AREA...A10 IN THE
HIGHLANDS...M20S IN THE CITIES.

SAT SHOULD FEATURE LGT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U40S.

NO PROBS SAT NGT EITHER. A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS A30..COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS...WARMER IN THE CITIES.

THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SUN AFTN. HIGH PRES WL HV MOVED
WELL OFFSHORE. UPR LVL SHORT WV/LOWS PRES WL BE DVLPG IN THE GULF
STATES AND TRACKING NE. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS AFTR MIDDAY W/
CHCS FOR PCPN INCRSG FM S TO N AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. BEST CHC
FOR RA WL BE SUN NGT. HIGHS SUN IN THE 50S...LOWS SUN NGT ONLY ABT
TEN DEGS COOLER.

AFTR THE WARM FNT PUSHES N MON SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY W/ HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S...PSBLY L70S. THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD
FNT WL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID ATLC MON NGT.

THIS WL BE THE 1ST FCST W/ THNKSGVG MENTIONED IN IT. BIG
DIFFERENCE BTWN THE GFS AND ECE - GFS PORTRAYS A LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN US WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ZNL FLOW W/ A DEPARTING SFC HIGH
OVR THE MID ATLC. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...RESULTING IN WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. STILL HAVE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TIL MIDNIGHT OR
SO...THEN GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE BECOMING PREVALENT AGAIN BY
LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

IN THE XTND - VFR COND XPCTD FRI NGT THRU 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW
PRES WL BE TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF STATES SUN AFTN. SUB VFR CONDS
ARE PSBL SUN NGT. RW PSBL MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT. GUSTY W WINDS
PSBL TUE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 01Z...COLD FRONT STILL HADN/T CROSSED THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

GOOD CONDS ON THE WATERS FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LVL WINDS PSBL
SUN..THEN LKLY MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT AND AFTR THE FNT MOVES THRU
MON NGT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
BPP/HAS/WOODY!/CEM







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