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000
FXUS61 KLWX 010103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.

BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.

LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.

BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.

LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.

BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.

LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.

BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.

LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING AT
500-800 J/KG WITH NO CIN. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING OF
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WILL
ALSO KEEP WORDING OUT OF THE HWO.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG IN LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM
CHO TO IAD AND AREAS EAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING IS THAT DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THIS
AREA BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN
DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...SIMILAR TO THE PATCHY DENSE FOG OF
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL IN THE WX GRIDS.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STILL A FEW AREAS SEEING MVFR
CIGS BUT THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL SITE IS LOW...THEREFORE MENTION HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. LOW
CIGS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING AT
500-800 J/KG WITH NO CIN. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING OF
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WILL
ALSO KEEP WORDING OUT OF THE HWO.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG IN LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM
CHO TO IAD AND AREAS EAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING IS THAT DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THIS
AREA BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN
DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...SIMILAR TO THE PATCHY DENSE FOG OF
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL IN THE WX GRIDS.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STILL A FEW AREAS SEEING MVFR
CIGS BUT THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL SITE IS LOW...THEREFORE MENTION HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. LOW
CIGS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING AT
500-800 J/KG WITH NO CIN. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING OF
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WILL
ALSO KEEP WORDING OUT OF THE HWO.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG IN LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM
CHO TO IAD AND AREAS EAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING IS THAT DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THIS
AREA BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN
DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...SIMILAR TO THE PATCHY DENSE FOG OF
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL IN THE WX GRIDS.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STILL A FEW AREAS SEEING MVFR
CIGS BUT THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL SITE IS LOW...THEREFORE MENTION HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. LOW
CIGS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING AT
500-800 J/KG WITH NO CIN. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING OF
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WILL
ALSO KEEP WORDING OUT OF THE HWO.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG IN LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM
CHO TO IAD AND AREAS EAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING IS THAT DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THIS
AREA BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN
DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...SIMILAR TO THE PATCHY DENSE FOG OF
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL IN THE WX GRIDS.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STILL A FEW AREAS SEEING MVFR
CIGS BUT THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL SITE IS LOW...THEREFORE MENTION HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. LOW
CIGS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301423 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED SOCKED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING A BIT OF A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION. 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A STOUT
INVERSION AT 850MB WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY...AWAITING
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND MIX OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WILL LOWER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BURN
OFF.

WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS BUT CLOUD COVER HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED OUT. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS
TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 60S IN THE
METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
BRINGING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND EXTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FIRST BUT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN LONGER. WILL KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THEN RISING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...GMS/KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301423 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED SOCKED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING A BIT OF A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION. 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A STOUT
INVERSION AT 850MB WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY...AWAITING
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND MIX OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WILL LOWER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BURN
OFF.

WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS BUT CLOUD COVER HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED OUT. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS
TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 60S IN THE
METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
BRINGING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND EXTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FIRST BUT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN LONGER. WILL KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THEN RISING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...GMS/KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301423 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED SOCKED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING A BIT OF A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION. 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A STOUT
INVERSION AT 850MB WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY...AWAITING
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND MIX OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WILL LOWER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BURN
OFF.

WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS BUT CLOUD COVER HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED OUT. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS
TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 60S IN THE
METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
BRINGING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND EXTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FIRST BUT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN LONGER. WILL KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THEN RISING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...GMS/KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301423 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED SOCKED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING A BIT OF A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION. 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A STOUT
INVERSION AT 850MB WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY...AWAITING
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND MIX OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WILL LOWER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BURN
OFF.

WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS BUT CLOUD COVER HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED OUT. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS
TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 60S IN THE
METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
BRINGING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND EXTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FIRST BUT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN LONGER. WILL KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THEN RISING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...GMS/KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HV GONE OUTSIDE MULTIPLE TIMES TO TAKE OBS NEAR IAD TNGT - THERE
IS DFNTLY FOG OUTSIDE BUT IT SEEMS MORE LK A LOW CLD DECK
DESCENDING TOWARD THE GRND THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DROPPING
VSBYS FM A RAD COOLING ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OBS ARE COMING IN W/ LOW VSBYS
AS WELL - CHO REPORTING 1/4 SM. BUT LOOKING AT TRAFFIC CAMS DOWN
I-81/RT 29/I-64 VSBYS AREN`T BAD. IR STLT SHOWS CLDS MOVG
OFFSHORE BUT W/ SUCH A LGT WINDS FIELD I DON`T KNOW THAT MEANS LO
LVL MOISTURE WL BE EXITING VERY QUICKLY. WE`LL CONT TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY IF NEEDED.

BY MID MRNG XPCTG SOME BRKS IN THE CLDS TO DVLP. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MU70S.

AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MI. UPR LOW ASSO W/ THIS IS XPCTD
TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATE TDA/TNGT. THIS WL BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW TO
THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE - PERHAPS CAPES OF 500 W/ AN ALMOST NOT EXISTANT WIND
FIELD THRU 10K FT. SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS EVE THE SHORT MAY BE IMPACTING THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA...AND HV TAKEN CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN PART OF THE
BAY. SOME BRKS IN CLDS XPCTD OVRNGT...AND HENCE FOG CHCS WL RETURN
AFTR MDNGT.

LOWS IN THE L60S E OF I-95...MU50S W.

WEAK HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE AREA FM THE N WED.

HIGHS IN THE M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND ENTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRNG LO CLD/FOG DFNTLY A PROB. ATTM CONDS IN THE IFR/LIFR RNG.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD IS SO LGT IT MAY BE SVRL HRS AFTR SUNSET B4
CONDS IMPRV SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR CONDS XPCTD AFTR MID MRNG...LASTING
THRU THE EVE. FOG MAY DVLP AGN OVRNGT W OF I-95.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HV GONE OUTSIDE MULTIPLE TIMES TO TAKE OBS NEAR IAD TNGT - THERE
IS DFNTLY FOG OUTSIDE BUT IT SEEMS MORE LK A LOW CLD DECK
DESCENDING TOWARD THE GRND THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DROPPING
VSBYS FM A RAD COOLING ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OBS ARE COMING IN W/ LOW VSBYS
AS WELL - CHO REPORTING 1/4 SM. BUT LOOKING AT TRAFFIC CAMS DOWN
I-81/RT 29/I-64 VSBYS AREN`T BAD. IR STLT SHOWS CLDS MOVG
OFFSHORE BUT W/ SUCH A LGT WINDS FIELD I DON`T KNOW THAT MEANS LO
LVL MOISTURE WL BE EXITING VERY QUICKLY. WE`LL CONT TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY IF NEEDED.

BY MID MRNG XPCTG SOME BRKS IN THE CLDS TO DVLP. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MU70S.

AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MI. UPR LOW ASSO W/ THIS IS XPCTD
TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATE TDA/TNGT. THIS WL BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW TO
THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE - PERHAPS CAPES OF 500 W/ AN ALMOST NOT EXISTANT WIND
FIELD THRU 10K FT. SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS EVE THE SHORT MAY BE IMPACTING THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA...AND HV TAKEN CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN PART OF THE
BAY. SOME BRKS IN CLDS XPCTD OVRNGT...AND HENCE FOG CHCS WL RETURN
AFTR MDNGT.

LOWS IN THE L60S E OF I-95...MU50S W.

WEAK HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE AREA FM THE N WED.

HIGHS IN THE M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND ENTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRNG LO CLD/FOG DFNTLY A PROB. ATTM CONDS IN THE IFR/LIFR RNG.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD IS SO LGT IT MAY BE SVRL HRS AFTR SUNSET B4
CONDS IMPRV SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR CONDS XPCTD AFTR MID MRNG...LASTING
THRU THE EVE. FOG MAY DVLP AGN OVRNGT W OF I-95.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HV GONE OUTSIDE MULTIPLE TIMES TO TAKE OBS NEAR IAD TNGT - THERE
IS DFNTLY FOG OUTSIDE BUT IT SEEMS MORE LK A LOW CLD DECK
DESCENDING TOWARD THE GRND THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DROPPING
VSBYS FM A RAD COOLING ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OBS ARE COMING IN W/ LOW VSBYS
AS WELL - CHO REPORTING 1/4 SM. BUT LOOKING AT TRAFFIC CAMS DOWN
I-81/RT 29/I-64 VSBYS AREN`T BAD. IR STLT SHOWS CLDS MOVG
OFFSHORE BUT W/ SUCH A LGT WINDS FIELD I DON`T KNOW THAT MEANS LO
LVL MOISTURE WL BE EXITING VERY QUICKLY. WE`LL CONT TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY IF NEEDED.

BY MID MRNG XPCTG SOME BRKS IN THE CLDS TO DVLP. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MU70S.

AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MI. UPR LOW ASSO W/ THIS IS XPCTD
TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATE TDA/TNGT. THIS WL BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW TO
THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE - PERHAPS CAPES OF 500 W/ AN ALMOST NOT EXISTANT WIND
FIELD THRU 10K FT. SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS EVE THE SHORT MAY BE IMPACTING THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA...AND HV TAKEN CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN PART OF THE
BAY. SOME BRKS IN CLDS XPCTD OVRNGT...AND HENCE FOG CHCS WL RETURN
AFTR MDNGT.

LOWS IN THE L60S E OF I-95...MU50S W.

WEAK HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE AREA FM THE N WED.

HIGHS IN THE M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND ENTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRNG LO CLD/FOG DFNTLY A PROB. ATTM CONDS IN THE IFR/LIFR RNG.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD IS SO LGT IT MAY BE SVRL HRS AFTR SUNSET B4
CONDS IMPRV SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR CONDS XPCTD AFTR MID MRNG...LASTING
THRU THE EVE. FOG MAY DVLP AGN OVRNGT W OF I-95.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HV GONE OUTSIDE MULTIPLE TIMES TO TAKE OBS NEAR IAD TNGT - THERE
IS DFNTLY FOG OUTSIDE BUT IT SEEMS MORE LK A LOW CLD DECK
DESCENDING TOWARD THE GRND THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DROPPING
VSBYS FM A RAD COOLING ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OBS ARE COMING IN W/ LOW VSBYS
AS WELL - CHO REPORTING 1/4 SM. BUT LOOKING AT TRAFFIC CAMS DOWN
I-81/RT 29/I-64 VSBYS AREN`T BAD. IR STLT SHOWS CLDS MOVG
OFFSHORE BUT W/ SUCH A LGT WINDS FIELD I DON`T KNOW THAT MEANS LO
LVL MOISTURE WL BE EXITING VERY QUICKLY. WE`LL CONT TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY IF NEEDED.

BY MID MRNG XPCTG SOME BRKS IN THE CLDS TO DVLP. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MU70S.

AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MI. UPR LOW ASSO W/ THIS IS XPCTD
TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATE TDA/TNGT. THIS WL BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW TO
THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE - PERHAPS CAPES OF 500 W/ AN ALMOST NOT EXISTANT WIND
FIELD THRU 10K FT. SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS EVE THE SHORT MAY BE IMPACTING THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA...AND HV TAKEN CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN PART OF THE
BAY. SOME BRKS IN CLDS XPCTD OVRNGT...AND HENCE FOG CHCS WL RETURN
AFTR MDNGT.

LOWS IN THE L60S E OF I-95...MU50S W.

WEAK HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE AREA FM THE N WED.

HIGHS IN THE M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND ENTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRNG LO CLD/FOG DFNTLY A PROB. ATTM CONDS IN THE IFR/LIFR RNG.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD IS SO LGT IT MAY BE SVRL HRS AFTR SUNSET B4
CONDS IMPRV SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR CONDS XPCTD AFTR MID MRNG...LASTING
THRU THE EVE. FOG MAY DVLP AGN OVRNGT W OF I-95.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300036
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
836 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
OR PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN CRUISING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE
BAY AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN MD. MEANWHILE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING IS STARTING
TO BECOME EVIDENT TOWARD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

TRENDS SUGGEST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE WANING OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ALSO EXPAND EAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS SUPPORTS A DRY OVERNIGHT AND AM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. EXTENT OF
CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT IF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OCCURS
TONIGHT...THEN DENSE FOG MAY RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS IN VFR RIGHT NOW...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED EXPECT SOME FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR TONIGHT AS SOME MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS IN. EXTENT OF CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AND WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW LOW VIS WILL GO. HAVE HIT
MRB/CHO THE HARDEST WITH 1/2SM...NOT QUITE AS LOW TOWARD THE HUBS.
BUT IF CLEARING WORKS ALL THE WAY EAST THEN VIS 1/2SM OR LESS IS
PLAUSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY /AND LOW CIGS IN STRATUS/.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE
MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-
FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...BPP/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/KLW/DFH
MARINE...BPP/KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 2PM...RADAR INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT EXIST AND
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MAIN STEM
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE BRIEFLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF
ANY REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VSBY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AT THE CHO OR PERHAPS THE MTN TERMINALS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, RESPECTIVELY.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO
NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KLW/DFH
MARINE...KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 2PM...RADAR INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT EXIST AND
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MAIN STEM
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE BRIEFLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF
ANY REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VSBY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AT THE CHO OR PERHAPS THE MTN TERMINALS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, RESPECTIVELY.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO
NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KLW/DFH
MARINE...KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 2PM...RADAR INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT EXIST AND
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MAIN STEM
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE BRIEFLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF
ANY REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VSBY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AT THE CHO OR PERHAPS THE MTN TERMINALS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, RESPECTIVELY.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO
NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KLW/DFH
MARINE...KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 2PM...RADAR INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT EXIST AND
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MAIN STEM
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE BRIEFLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF
ANY REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VSBY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AT THE CHO OR PERHAPS THE MTN TERMINALS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, RESPECTIVELY.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO
NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KLW/DFH
MARINE...KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME HIGH-BASED STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS PENDLETON AND
HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS NELSON...ALBEMARLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN SLIDE ACROSS CHO TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO 5K TO 6K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CLDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN
IN VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME HIGH-BASED STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS PENDLETON AND
HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS NELSON...ALBEMARLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN SLIDE ACROSS CHO TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO 5K TO 6K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CLDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN
IN VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME HIGH-BASED STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS PENDLETON AND
HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS NELSON...ALBEMARLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN SLIDE ACROSS CHO TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO 5K TO 6K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CLDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN
IN VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME HIGH-BASED STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS PENDLETON AND
HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS NELSON...ALBEMARLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN SLIDE ACROSS CHO TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO 5K TO 6K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CLDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN
IN VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ALTHO SKIES SHOULD BE M CLDY TDA CIGS SHOULD RMN VFR. THESE CLDS
SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN IN
VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ALTHO SKIES SHOULD BE M CLDY TDA CIGS SHOULD RMN VFR. THESE CLDS
SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN IN
VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS








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