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000
FXUS61 KLWX 060800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN OH. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE AREA. THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT IS LESS THAN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS.

LWX WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. MORNING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...WITH THE 06Z
HRRR SUGGESTING A MID MORNING REPRIEVE BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEGINS IN THE LATE MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO COME INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY. POPS ARE
HIGHEST TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
MID 80S.

THE AXIS OF THE REMNANT UPR TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...
SHUNTING ACTIVITY EAST. KEPT SOME POPS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MILD...UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 70S
EAST.

TUESDAY...SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF 20C 850 TEMPS
SUGGEST MID 90S IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. WENT GENERALLY LOW 90S...AN
INCREASE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S WOULD ADD A
FEW DEGREES IN A HEAT INDEX. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE BAY BREEZE AND
IN THE TERRAIN. OTW...NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST OF CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS WITH SOME IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AND THEN IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KT. FLOW
SHIFTS SWLY TONIGHT WITH VFR AND 15 KT SWLY GUSTS TUESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH COULD LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SLY CHANNELING WITH 20 KT
GUSTS OVER SRN MD BAY WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE IS AN SCA. 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. FLOW SHIFTS SWLY
TONIGHT AND 15 KT SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR SOME 18 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ/KRW
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN OH. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE AREA. THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT IS LESS THAN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS.

LWX WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. MORNING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...WITH THE 06Z
HRRR SUGGESTING A MID MORNING REPRIEVE BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEGINS IN THE LATE MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO COME INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY. POPS ARE
HIGHEST TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
MID 80S.

THE AXIS OF THE REMNANT UPR TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...
SHUNTING ACTIVITY EAST. KEPT SOME POPS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MILD...UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 70S
EAST.

TUESDAY...SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF 20C 850 TEMPS
SUGGEST MID 90S IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. WENT GENERALLY LOW 90S...AN
INCREASE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S WOULD ADD A
FEW DEGREES IN A HEAT INDEX. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE BAY BREEZE AND
IN THE TERRAIN. OTW...NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST OF CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS WITH SOME IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AND THEN IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KT. FLOW
SHIFTS SWLY TONIGHT WITH VFR AND 15 KT SWLY GUSTS TUESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH COULD LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SLY CHANNELING WITH 20 KT
GUSTS OVER SRN MD BAY WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE IS AN SCA. 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. FLOW SHIFTS SWLY
TONIGHT AND 15 KT SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR SOME 18 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ/KRW
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN OH. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE AREA. THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT IS LESS THAN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS.

LWX WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. MORNING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...WITH THE 06Z
HRRR SUGGESTING A MID MORNING REPRIEVE BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEGINS IN THE LATE MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO COME INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY. POPS ARE
HIGHEST TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
MID 80S.

THE AXIS OF THE REMNANT UPR TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...
SHUNTING ACTIVITY EAST. KEPT SOME POPS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MILD...UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 70S
EAST.

TUESDAY...SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF 20C 850 TEMPS
SUGGEST MID 90S IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. WENT GENERALLY LOW 90S...AN
INCREASE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S WOULD ADD A
FEW DEGREES IN A HEAT INDEX. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE BAY BREEZE AND
IN THE TERRAIN. OTW...NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST OF CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS WITH SOME IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AND THEN IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KT. FLOW
SHIFTS SWLY TONIGHT WITH VFR AND 15 KT SWLY GUSTS TUESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH COULD LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SLY CHANNELING WITH 20 KT
GUSTS OVER SRN MD BAY WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE IS AN SCA. 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. FLOW SHIFTS SWLY
TONIGHT AND 15 KT SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR SOME 18 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ/KRW
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051926
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL PICTURE...STATIONARY FRONT HOVERING ALONG
THE VA/NC BORDER WITH UPPER LVL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
NOTED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS THESE FACTORS COME INTO
PLAY.

FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE PIVOTING MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUM SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
LASTING THRU NEAR DAYBREAK MON MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOM REACHING THE WESTERN
AREAS...INCRSG PWATS TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH A GENERALLY SLOW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED THE WATCH FOR THE AREAS
THAT ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION AND THE LOWEST FFG
GUIDANCE...WITH 1 HR SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH. OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE HIGHER
FFG FELT THE THREAT WAS MORE MINIMAL.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY
MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG THE PCPN LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA
WOULD BE SOME CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION THEN MON AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER
EAST...SO THE THREAT OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON
AFTN/EVENING. SVR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON THE
LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN MON
AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS. PCPN
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA
WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN
IMPACTING TERMINALS OTHER THAN KCHO THRU THE EVENING. INCRSG
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL SITES WITH
SHOWERS...PSBL THUNDER...AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND VIS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051926
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL PICTURE...STATIONARY FRONT HOVERING ALONG
THE VA/NC BORDER WITH UPPER LVL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
NOTED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS THESE FACTORS COME INTO
PLAY.

FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE PIVOTING MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUM SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
LASTING THRU NEAR DAYBREAK MON MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOM REACHING THE WESTERN
AREAS...INCRSG PWATS TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH A GENERALLY SLOW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED THE WATCH FOR THE AREAS
THAT ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION AND THE LOWEST FFG
GUIDANCE...WITH 1 HR SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH. OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE HIGHER
FFG FELT THE THREAT WAS MORE MINIMAL.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY
MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG THE PCPN LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA
WOULD BE SOME CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION THEN MON AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER
EAST...SO THE THREAT OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON
AFTN/EVENING. SVR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON THE
LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN MON
AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS. PCPN
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA
WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN
IMPACTING TERMINALS OTHER THAN KCHO THRU THE EVENING. INCRSG
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL SITES WITH
SHOWERS...PSBL THUNDER...AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND VIS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051445
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM. PATCHES OF FOG STILL NOTICABLE VIA 14Z OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VIS 3 MILES OR GREATER.

14Z VIS SAT SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER TN/KY...SLOWLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. THE PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU
THE NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SCT-NUM SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING PWATS...SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH VIS NOW 3-5 MILES
DUE TO LINGERING FOG. CIGS ALL OVER...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-18Z WITH WARMING. FOG
SHOULD ALL BE DISSIPATED BY 16/17Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
THIS AFTN. CHC TSTM AT KCHO/KMRB COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...WHICH WILL BRING YET
AGAIN A CHC OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...SEARS/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051445
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM. PATCHES OF FOG STILL NOTICABLE VIA 14Z OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VIS 3 MILES OR GREATER.

14Z VIS SAT SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER TN/KY...SLOWLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. THE PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU
THE NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SCT-NUM SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING PWATS...SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH VIS NOW 3-5 MILES
DUE TO LINGERING FOG. CIGS ALL OVER...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-18Z WITH WARMING. FOG
SHOULD ALL BE DISSIPATED BY 16/17Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
THIS AFTN. CHC TSTM AT KCHO/KMRB COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...WHICH WILL BRING YET
AGAIN A CHC OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...SEARS/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050933
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
533 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY PER LATEST OBS. TRAFFIC CAMS SUGGEST
THE FOG IS MORE PATCHY THAN AREAS. SUNRISE IS BY 6AM...SO THE
HEADLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED WELL BEFORE THE CURRENT
EXPIRY TIME OF 10AM.

AS OF 09Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM.
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO MORE OF A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR WRN BALT-WASH SUBURBS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503-505-507.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-037>040-050>053-055>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050933
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
533 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY PER LATEST OBS. TRAFFIC CAMS SUGGEST
THE FOG IS MORE PATCHY THAN AREAS. SUNRISE IS BY 6AM...SO THE
HEADLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED WELL BEFORE THE CURRENT
EXPIRY TIME OF 10AM.

AS OF 09Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM.
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO MORE OF A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR WRN BALT-WASH SUBURBS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503-505-507.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-037>040-050>053-055>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SWRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ARE RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM. THE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY TO THE VA PIEDMONT AND N-CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FURTHER AS IT WAS THOUGHT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO COVER A LARGER AREA BY THIS POINT IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OFFICIALLY BE ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-039-040-050>053-055>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SWRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ARE RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM. THE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY TO THE VA PIEDMONT AND N-CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FURTHER AS IT WAS THOUGHT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO COVER A LARGER AREA BY THIS POINT IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OFFICIALLY BE ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-039-040-050>053-055>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050103 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050103 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 042343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT POPPED UP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK.
ALSO...FOR AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT
TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 042343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT POPPED UP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK.
ALSO...FOR AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT
TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM



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