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000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN WIGGLE BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
LOW PASSES THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT PRESENT...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S AT PRESENT...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD START QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 60S BY MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT JUST HOW COOL IT CAN
GET...BUT ALSO MAY HELP SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL AND METRO AREAS. OTHERWISE...VERY BENIGN WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FORCING
REMAINING WELL NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE /MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS PW`S BELOW 1.5 INCHES/...GENERALLY WE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
SO WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVE LACK
OF MOISTURE /DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S/...HEAT
INDICES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IN FACT
PROBABLY WON`T EVEN CRACK 100 AT OUR RELIABLE REPORTING STATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S IN THE
HOTTEST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECIEVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICNIITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
...ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS
AT DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VIS AT MRB/CHO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...WITH BEST CHANCE
AT CHO...THEN CHANCE OF SUB VFR CIGS/VIS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS...AND HAVE KEPT SCA GOING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND ADJACENT
WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRENT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWERING WITH THE FULL MOON NOW BEHIND
US...AND ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE
A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN WIGGLE BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
LOW PASSES THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT PRESENT...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S AT PRESENT...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD START QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 60S BY MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT JUST HOW COOL IT CAN
GET...BUT ALSO MAY HELP SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL AND METRO AREAS. OTHERWISE...VERY BENIGN WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FORCING
REMAINING WELL NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE /MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS PW`S BELOW 1.5 INCHES/...GENERALLY WE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
SO WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVE LACK
OF MOISTURE /DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S/...HEAT
INDICES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IN FACT
PROBABLY WON`T EVEN CRACK 100 AT OUR RELIABLE REPORTING STATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S IN THE
HOTTEST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECIEVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICNIITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
...ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS
AT DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VIS AT MRB/CHO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...WITH BEST CHANCE
AT CHO...THEN CHANCE OF SUB VFR CIGS/VIS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS...AND HAVE KEPT SCA GOING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND ADJACENT
WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRENT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWERING WITH THE FULL MOON NOW BEHIND
US...AND ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE
A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021359
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021353
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
953 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US FROM REACHING
HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING WELL WITHIN
THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW/RCM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW/RCM
MARINE...BJL/KRW/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS EVENING...MORE OR
LESS COINCIDENT WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER STILL RESIDES. AS OF
01Z...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED HAVE CROSSED THE BAY.
GIVEN THESE WERE LIKELY AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTBY...MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DESPITE IT TAKING
SOME TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST. DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN
MID 50S) HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THAT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...FOG SHOULD
BE PATCHY AND RELEGATED TO THE TYPICAL RURAL LOW LYING SPOTS.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN URBAN CENTERS AND 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS (DIURNAL CU BASE OF 5-6
KFT) AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF MVFR BR AT KCHO LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND COULD DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR CAN FILTER IN. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE SEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE BAY...HOWEVER GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 18 KT. IF
THERE WERE A STRAY GUST HIGHER THAN THAT...IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW PROB AND SHORT TIME FRAME...WILL
NOT ISSUE A SCA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS EVENING...MORE OR
LESS COINCIDENT WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER STILL RESIDES. AS OF
01Z...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED HAVE CROSSED THE BAY.
GIVEN THESE WERE LIKELY AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTBY...MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DESPITE IT TAKING
SOME TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST. DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN
MID 50S) HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THAT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...FOG SHOULD
BE PATCHY AND RELEGATED TO THE TYPICAL RURAL LOW LYING SPOTS.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN URBAN CENTERS AND 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS (DIURNAL CU BASE OF 5-6
KFT) AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF MVFR BR AT KCHO LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND COULD DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR CAN FILTER IN. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE SEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE BAY...HOWEVER GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 18 KT. IF
THERE WERE A STRAY GUST HIGHER THAN THAT...IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW PROB AND SHORT TIME FRAME...WILL
NOT ISSUE A SCA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS EVENING...MORE OR
LESS COINCIDENT WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER STILL RESIDES. AS OF
01Z...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED HAVE CROSSED THE BAY.
GIVEN THESE WERE LIKELY AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTBY...MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DESPITE IT TAKING
SOME TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST. DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN
MID 50S) HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THAT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...FOG SHOULD
BE PATCHY AND RELEGATED TO THE TYPICAL RURAL LOW LYING SPOTS.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN URBAN CENTERS AND 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS (DIURNAL CU BASE OF 5-6
KFT) AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF MVFR BR AT KCHO LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND COULD DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR CAN FILTER IN. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE SEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE BAY...HOWEVER GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 18 KT. IF
THERE WERE A STRAY GUST HIGHER THAN THAT...IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW PROB AND SHORT TIME FRAME...WILL
NOT ISSUE A SCA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS EVENING...MORE OR
LESS COINCIDENT WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER STILL RESIDES. AS OF
01Z...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED HAVE CROSSED THE BAY.
GIVEN THESE WERE LIKELY AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTBY...MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DESPITE IT TAKING
SOME TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST. DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN
MID 50S) HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THAT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...FOG SHOULD
BE PATCHY AND RELEGATED TO THE TYPICAL RURAL LOW LYING SPOTS.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN URBAN CENTERS AND 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS (DIURNAL CU BASE OF 5-6
KFT) AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF MVFR BR AT KCHO LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND COULD DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR CAN FILTER IN. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE SEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE BAY...HOWEVER GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 18 KT. IF
THERE WERE A STRAY GUST HIGHER THAN THAT...IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW PROB AND SHORT TIME FRAME...WILL
NOT ISSUE A SCA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS EVENING...MORE OR
LESS COINCIDENT WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER STILL RESIDES. AS OF
01Z...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED HAVE CROSSED THE BAY.
GIVEN THESE WERE LIKELY AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTBY...MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DESPITE IT TAKING
SOME TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST. DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN
MID 50S) HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THAT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...FOG SHOULD
BE PATCHY AND RELEGATED TO THE TYPICAL RURAL LOW LYING SPOTS.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN URBAN CENTERS AND 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS (DIURNAL CU BASE OF 5-6
KFT) AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF MVFR BR AT KCHO LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND COULD DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR CAN FILTER IN. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE SEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE BAY...HOWEVER GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 18 KT. IF
THERE WERE A STRAY GUST HIGHER THAN THAT...IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW PROB AND SHORT TIME FRAME...WILL
NOT ISSUE A SCA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS EVENING...MORE OR
LESS COINCIDENT WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER STILL RESIDES. AS OF
01Z...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED HAVE CROSSED THE BAY.
GIVEN THESE WERE LIKELY AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTBY...MAY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DESPITE IT TAKING
SOME TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST. DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN
MID 50S) HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THAT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...FOG SHOULD
BE PATCHY AND RELEGATED TO THE TYPICAL RURAL LOW LYING SPOTS.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN URBAN CENTERS AND 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS (DIURNAL CU BASE OF 5-6
KFT) AND SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF MVFR BR AT KCHO LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND COULD DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR CAN FILTER IN. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE SEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE BAY...HOWEVER GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 18 KT. IF
THERE WERE A STRAY GUST HIGHER THAN THAT...IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW PROB AND SHORT TIME FRAME...WILL
NOT ISSUE A SCA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011847 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
REGION. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK...BUT SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AS
EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY
LOCALES. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MAX OF CAPE SOUTH OF
DC...AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
HAPPEN...SO THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST IN THIS AREA. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. OTHERWISE...AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS AND MAJORITY OF TIME IN THE REST OF THE AREA...IT SHOULD
BE A DRY AND PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY WHICH IS STILL LOWER THAN
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR EARLY AUGUST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE METRO...BUT THAT IS PRETTY MUCH ALL THERE IS
TO TALK ABOUT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW
10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THAT SOME INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE METRO...I.E. MRB AND
CHO...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR VIS/CIGS LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
BUSIER TERMINALS IN THE METRO.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO FAR TODAY AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THEY MIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THEREFORE...KEPT WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ELEVATE TIDES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011847 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
REGION. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK...BUT SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AS
EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY
LOCALES. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MAX OF CAPE SOUTH OF
DC...AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
HAPPEN...SO THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST IN THIS AREA. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. OTHERWISE...AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS AND MAJORITY OF TIME IN THE REST OF THE AREA...IT SHOULD
BE A DRY AND PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY WHICH IS STILL LOWER THAN
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR EARLY AUGUST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE METRO...BUT THAT IS PRETTY MUCH ALL THERE IS
TO TALK ABOUT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW
10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THAT SOME INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE METRO...I.E. MRB AND
CHO...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR VIS/CIGS LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
BUSIER TERMINALS IN THE METRO.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO FAR TODAY AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THEY MIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THEREFORE...KEPT WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ELEVATE TIDES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011847 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
REGION. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK...BUT SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AS
EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY
LOCALES. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MAX OF CAPE SOUTH OF
DC...AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
HAPPEN...SO THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST IN THIS AREA. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. OTHERWISE...AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS AND MAJORITY OF TIME IN THE REST OF THE AREA...IT SHOULD
BE A DRY AND PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY WHICH IS STILL LOWER THAN
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR EARLY AUGUST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE METRO...BUT THAT IS PRETTY MUCH ALL THERE IS
TO TALK ABOUT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW
10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THAT SOME INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE METRO...I.E. MRB AND
CHO...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR VIS/CIGS LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
BUSIER TERMINALS IN THE METRO.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO FAR TODAY AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THEY MIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THEREFORE...KEPT WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ELEVATE TIDES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011847 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
REGION. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK...BUT SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AS
EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY
LOCALES. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MAX OF CAPE SOUTH OF
DC...AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
HAPPEN...SO THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST IN THIS AREA. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. OTHERWISE...AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS AND MAJORITY OF TIME IN THE REST OF THE AREA...IT SHOULD
BE A DRY AND PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY WHICH IS STILL LOWER THAN
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR EARLY AUGUST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE METRO...BUT THAT IS PRETTY MUCH ALL THERE IS
TO TALK ABOUT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW
10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THAT SOME INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE METRO...I.E. MRB AND
CHO...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR VIS/CIGS LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
BUSIER TERMINALS IN THE METRO.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO FAR TODAY AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THEY MIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THEREFORE...KEPT WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ELEVATE TIDES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011844
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
REGION. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK...BUT SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AS
EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY
LOCALES. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MAX OF CAPE SOUTH OF
DC...AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
HAPPEN...SO THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST IN THIS AREA. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. OTHERWISE...AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS AND MAJORITY OF TIME IN THE REST OF THE AREA...IT SHOULD
BE A DRY AND PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY WHICH IS STILL LOWER THAN
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR EARLY AUGUST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE METRO...BUT THAT IS PRETTY MUCH ALL THERE IS
TO TALK ABOUT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW
10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THAT SOME INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE METRO...I.E. MRB AND
CHO...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR VIS/CIGS LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
BUSIER TERMINALS IN THE METRO.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO FAR TODAY AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THEY MIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THEREFORE...KEPT WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ELEVATE TIDES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011844
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND STALL TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP
NEARBY ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
REGION. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK...BUT SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED AS
EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY
LOCALES. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MAX OF CAPE SOUTH OF
DC...AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
HAPPEN...SO THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST IN THIS AREA. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. OTHERWISE...AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS AND MAJORITY OF TIME IN THE REST OF THE AREA...IT SHOULD
BE A DRY AND PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY WHICH IS STILL LOWER THAN
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR EARLY AUGUST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE METRO...BUT THAT IS PRETTY MUCH ALL THERE IS
TO TALK ABOUT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BUT DEW POINTS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S SO OVERALL...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN IN THE SHELTERED INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE METRO WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE DEW POINT. WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS...LOWS SHOULD END UP A
BIT MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE HOT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 19- 22 C. IT WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S...LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER JET MAX AROUND 250 MB. THINKING THIS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...PROPAGATING INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE AND
SHORTWAVE FORCING...AS WELL AS MODEST SHEAR OVER THESE AREAS. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 3/MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS/CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE HIGHLANDS IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MD/BALTIMORE METRO AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
/DOWNSLOPING/ TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY AND WITH NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER NORTH /KEEPING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND MOIST/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...BUT PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. GEFS/EC MEAN SEEMS TO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
SAID WAVE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

THE PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WITH EVEN LESSER CERTAINTY IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW
10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THAT SOME INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE METRO...I.E. MRB AND
CHO...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR VIS/CIGS LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
BUSIER TERMINALS IN THE METRO.

GENERALLY REMAINING VFR MON-WED...BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR MRB/CHO MON EVE...INITIALLY IN SHRA/SCTD TSRA...THEN LWR VSBYS
PSBL OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AS WINDS LIGHTEN W/ FRONT OVERHEAD.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT MON BECOME WLY MON NIGHT-TUE AOB 10 KT. WIND
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF
FRONT/APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO FAR TODAY AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THEY MIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. THEREFORE...KEPT WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCA GUSTS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/LEE SIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ELEVATE TIDES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011446
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1046 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT AND MOST RECENT
ANALYSIS FROM WPC INDICATES ONLY A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS IN
ITS PLACE. DEW POINTS ARE A BIT ELEVATED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
HOWEVER...AND A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALOFT...SO THE NAM
DEPICTION OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT COMPLETELY
IMPOSSIBLE. FOR THE TIME BEING HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS MORE OR LESS
OUT ON ITS OWN...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR 90 OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO
AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S
IN THE METRO AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY
INLAND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S...WARMEST OVER THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S AND 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM THE WATER AND METRO AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL ACTUALLY TURN OUT HOTTER MONDAY DUE TO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
MOST AREAS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
MOST AREAS...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEAT INDICES TO BE NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT
DRY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE THE TWO AIRMASSES BETWEEN
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETUP...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS IT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

IF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...THEN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...IF THE
BOUNDARY IS FARTHER SOUTH...THEN COOL AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH. AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE FIRST SCENARIO WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IF THE BOUNDARY IS FARTHER NORTH
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND MENTION WILL BE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AWAY FROM METRO AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN MOST AREAS WILL END UP DRY. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SCA SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY GUST AROUND SCA
CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAY GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SETUP NEAR THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...KRW/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW/RCM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW/RCM
MARINE...BJL/KRW/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011446
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1046 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT AND MOST RECENT
ANALYSIS FROM WPC INDICATES ONLY A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS IN
ITS PLACE. DEW POINTS ARE A BIT ELEVATED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
HOWEVER...AND A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALOFT...SO THE NAM
DEPICTION OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT COMPLETELY
IMPOSSIBLE. FOR THE TIME BEING HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS MORE OR LESS
OUT ON ITS OWN...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR 90 OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO
AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S
IN THE METRO AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY
INLAND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S...WARMEST OVER THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S AND 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM THE WATER AND METRO AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL ACTUALLY TURN OUT HOTTER MONDAY DUE TO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
MOST AREAS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
MOST AREAS...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEAT INDICES TO BE NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT
DRY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE THE TWO AIRMASSES BETWEEN
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETUP...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS IT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

IF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...THEN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...IF THE
BOUNDARY IS FARTHER SOUTH...THEN COOL AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH. AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE FIRST SCENARIO WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IF THE BOUNDARY IS FARTHER NORTH
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND MENTION WILL BE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AWAY FROM METRO AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN MOST AREAS WILL END UP DRY. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SCA SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY GUST AROUND SCA
CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAY GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SETUP NEAR THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...KRW/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW/RCM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW/RCM
MARINE...BJL/KRW/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011446
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1046 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT AND MOST RECENT
ANALYSIS FROM WPC INDICATES ONLY A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS IN
ITS PLACE. DEW POINTS ARE A BIT ELEVATED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
HOWEVER...AND A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALOFT...SO THE NAM
DEPICTION OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT COMPLETELY
IMPOSSIBLE. FOR THE TIME BEING HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS MORE OR LESS
OUT ON ITS OWN...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...EXCEPT NEAR 90 OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO
AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S
IN THE METRO AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY
INLAND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S...WARMEST OVER THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S AND 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM THE WATER AND METRO AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL ACTUALLY TURN OUT HOTTER MONDAY DUE TO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
MOST AREAS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
MOST AREAS...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEAT INDICES TO BE NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT
DRY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE THE TWO AIRMASSES BETWEEN
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETUP...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS IT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

IF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...THEN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...IF THE
BOUNDARY IS FARTHER SOUTH...THEN COOL AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH. AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE FIRST SCENARIO WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IF THE BOUNDARY IS FARTHER NORTH
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECT IMPACT TO ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND MENTION WILL BE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AWAY FROM METRO AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN MOST AREAS WILL END UP DRY. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SCA SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY GUST AROUND SCA
CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAY GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SETUP NEAR THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON WILL CAUSE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
TIDES TODAY. WHILE TIDES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...KRW/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW/RCM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW/RCM
MARINE...BJL/KRW/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




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