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000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 272226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS
AROUND 3000 FT PSBL WITH LIGHT PCPN SHOWERS THRU 00Z AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE
NORTHWEST TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ON MULTIPLE
MESONET...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BEGUN THE SCA ON ALL THE
WATERS AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 272226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS
AROUND 3000 FT PSBL WITH LIGHT PCPN SHOWERS THRU 00Z AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE
NORTHWEST TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ON MULTIPLE
MESONET...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BEGUN THE SCA ON ALL THE
WATERS AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271819
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THESE
SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND
AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOWGROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST TO GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-536-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271551
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1051 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WILL BURN OFF BY NOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR
THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN ACROSS
THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271551
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1051 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WILL BURN OFF BY NOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR
THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN ACROSS
THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271501
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1001 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ502.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271501
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1001 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ502.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270854
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP









000
FXUS61 KLWX 270854
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...DFH/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...DFH/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 262326 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW...SUBSIDENCE IS
PUNCHING IN CAUSING A RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. NE-MD WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN
IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL OF THIS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AND ALL WINTER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE TERMINATED. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING BUT WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

TWO CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FIRST WILL BE RE-FREEZING
OF WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS. WILL CONSIDER AN SPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. SECOND...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WILL MONITOR FOG COVERAGE TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 262326 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW...SUBSIDENCE IS
PUNCHING IN CAUSING A RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. NE-MD WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN
IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL OF THIS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AND ALL WINTER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE TERMINATED. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING BUT WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

TWO CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FIRST WILL BE RE-FREEZING
OF WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS. WILL CONSIDER AN SPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. SECOND...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WILL MONITOR FOG COVERAGE TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 261930
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF SINCE THE STRONG
FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...BANDS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE POTENT SHORTWAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. THE WINTER
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES WITH
SURFACE TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF
I-95...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY AREAS...CAUSING THE THREAT FOR ANY
WET OR SLUSHY ROADS TO FREEZE.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SNOW AND RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. PATCHY BR
IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY BUT RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.3 INCHES AND THIS BREAKS THE OLD
RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ007-
     009>011.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ050>053-502.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>532-
     536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/DFH
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 261422
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT AND FORCING IS STRONG DUE TO THE POTENT DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. COLDER AIR IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM AND THIS HAS CAUSED RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE LATEST UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO BUMP UP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS
BASED ON THE LATEST REPORTS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MESOSCALE
BANDING ACROSS THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST AND THE HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME. A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...BUT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN/SNOW JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE THIS MORNING.
THICKNESSES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION ZONE NEAR
INTERSTATE 95. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS DONE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF MODEL RUNS. MOST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. AT THIS TIME...USING
HI RES MODELS TO ANTICIPATE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL BE SUPPLYING SOME COLD AND DRY
AIR...AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THAT SUPPLY WILL DIMINISH AND
DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. THERE IS A BANDING
POTENTIAL THAT IS SHOWN IN THE FN VECTORS IN THE NAM AND GFS FOR
MIDDAY ACROSS I-95. IF THIS OCCURS...ALL SNOW WOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE LIKELY MELT ON PAVEMENT BUT
ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TAKING THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH IT. NRLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NW AND DRY/COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. ANY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. FCST MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WET
SURFACES TO FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THANKSGIVING DAY. SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. INITIAL P-TYPE LIKELY
WOULD BE SNOW...BUT BY AFTERNOON THERMAL PROFILES BECOME MORE
MARGINAL FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE CWA THEREFORE HAVE RW/SW AS P-TYPE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SHORTWAVE EXITS BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH W/NW WIND BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. THIS
LIKELY LASTS INTO MONDAY EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COOLER AIR IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. SN IS EXPECTED AT MRB FOR MOST OF THE EVENT TODAY
WHEREAS WARMER TEMPS EASTWARD WILL LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW FOR
A PERIOD DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING.

DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SW/RW THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. NRLY WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE LOW NEARS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.

TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH POTENTIAL SCA
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS SPECIFIC
TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ007-
     009>011.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ050>053-502.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532-
     540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...DFH








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