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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT W/ MUCH OF THE REGIONAL OBS SHOWING
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S - PLENTY HUMID FOR AN EARLY SEPT NIGHT.
SMALLER SCALE RIPPLES IN THE LOWER ATMOS CAUSED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE
OVERNIGHT WHICH HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT EVIDENCE OF THE
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE TAPPED EVEN OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KIAD SNDG
FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWS OVER 2K J/KG SFC CAPE...THOUGH THE TYPICAL
NIGHTTIME DECOUPLING TOOK AWAY MUCH OF THE LL CONVERGENCE.

LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BASICALLY KEEP
THE OVERHEAD ATMOS IN MAINTENANCE MODE - ALLOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP W/ EVEN WEAK/DISORGANIZED FORCING. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS NOW REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS. THOUGH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...THE ARM OF LOW LEVEL ENERGY CAUSING THEM MAY DEVELOP MORE
ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDDAY. NEAR TERM WRF DERIVATIVES
LARGELY POINT TOWARD A LATE AFTN COLLECTION OF TSTMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SLIDING E THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE A FEW HRS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE
AFTN/EVE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY.

IT HAS BEEN A HOT/HUMID PAST FEW DAYS...AND TODAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE APEX OF THE CURRENT STRETCH. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WSW...BUT W/
SOME DOWNSLOPING LATER COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THESE WINDS MAY
ALSO DO WELL IN PREVENTING CONVECTION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE DAY.
DRY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS TYPICALLY NOT GOOD FOR CONVERGENCE...
SO A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR EFFECTIVE
INITIATION. HEATING WON`T BE AN ISSUE HOWEVER...W/ TEMPS QUICKLY
RISING RIGHT BACK INTO THE 80S THRU THE MRNG HRS AND L-M90S BY THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE MID AFTN. AN INFLUX OF DENSE LOW-MID CLOUD
DECKS FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTN MAY HELP TO CUT DOWN ON
THE HIGHER TEMPS...AND SO WOULD ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER HOT/HUMID
ENVIRONMENT W/ HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE U90S W/ A FEW LOCALES
POTENTIALLY POKING JUST ABOVE THE 100F DEG MARK IN THE URBAN
AREAS.

AFTER THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE ROLLED THRU LATER THIS EVE...THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL
START TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL TURN NWLY. THIS PASSAGE THOUGH WON`T
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...W/ WINDS ONLY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AT BEST
AND ONLY ABOUT A 5F DEG DEWPOINT DROP OVERALL...SO THE HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WE HEAD INTO WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND STABLE ON WED. NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM AND
RELATIVELY HUMID DAY...AS HIGHS WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE 90F DEG
MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE
L-M60S...CREATING HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND THE AMBIENT TEMP
LEVELS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RAISE BACK TO NEAR 70F...MIGHT AS WELL GET AREAS
OF FOG WORDING IN THE GRIDS. WITH THE HIGH PERSISTING
OFFSHORE...AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS BRINGS THE MID-ATLANTIC RIGHT
BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD LOW LEVEL FLOW BE MORE SELY
THAN SLY...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WOULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 90F THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BE A FACTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY AS THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF LINGERS THE
COLD FRONT OVER SERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME EARLIER SHOWER/TSTMS PASSED NEAR THE DC/BALT METRO
AREAS A FEW HRS AGO...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT. MORE
CLOUDS ON THE WAY FROM THE WEST...AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN. A WSW WIND DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS...W/ SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY -
SURROUNDING THE 00Z TIME PERIOD - W/IN A COUPLE HRS EITHER SIDE.
SOME EARLIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AFTER 18Z BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS ACTIVITY OFF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR WED.

FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT SWLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...THE HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 15KT OVER THE LOWER BAY ZONES. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS...THOUGH MORE OF A WLY DIRECTION TO THE FLOW THRU-
OUT THE DAY. SCTD TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...SO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE MARINE HAZARDS. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY
PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TURNING WINDS TO NWLY BUT STILL
LOWER THAN SCA CRIT. WED WILL SEE HIGH PRES BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND DROP WIND SPEEDS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVES WAY TO SLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANNELING
AGAIN (PROBABLY THURSDAY EVENING) BUT AS OF NOW THERE ARE NO SCA
HEADLINES EXPECTED. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 020759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT W/ MUCH OF THE REGIONAL OBS SHOWING
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S - PLENTY HUMID FOR AN EARLY SEPT NIGHT.
SMALLER SCALE RIPPLES IN THE LOWER ATMOS CAUSED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE
OVERNIGHT WHICH HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT EVIDENCE OF THE
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE TAPPED EVEN OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KIAD SNDG
FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWS OVER 2K J/KG SFC CAPE...THOUGH THE TYPICAL
NIGHTTIME DECOUPLING TOOK AWAY MUCH OF THE LL CONVERGENCE.

LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BASICALLY KEEP
THE OVERHEAD ATMOS IN MAINTENANCE MODE - ALLOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP W/ EVEN WEAK/DISORGANIZED FORCING. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS NOW REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS. THOUGH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...THE ARM OF LOW LEVEL ENERGY CAUSING THEM MAY DEVELOP MORE
ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDDAY. NEAR TERM WRF DERIVATIVES
LARGELY POINT TOWARD A LATE AFTN COLLECTION OF TSTMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SLIDING E THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE A FEW HRS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE
AFTN/EVE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY.

IT HAS BEEN A HOT/HUMID PAST FEW DAYS...AND TODAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE APEX OF THE CURRENT STRETCH. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WSW...BUT W/
SOME DOWNSLOPING LATER COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THESE WINDS MAY
ALSO DO WELL IN PREVENTING CONVECTION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE DAY.
DRY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS TYPICALLY NOT GOOD FOR CONVERGENCE...
SO A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR EFFECTIVE
INITIATION. HEATING WON`T BE AN ISSUE HOWEVER...W/ TEMPS QUICKLY
RISING RIGHT BACK INTO THE 80S THRU THE MRNG HRS AND L-M90S BY THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE MID AFTN. AN INFLUX OF DENSE LOW-MID CLOUD
DECKS FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTN MAY HELP TO CUT DOWN ON
THE HIGHER TEMPS...AND SO WOULD ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER HOT/HUMID
ENVIRONMENT W/ HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE U90S W/ A FEW LOCALES
POTENTIALLY POKING JUST ABOVE THE 100F DEG MARK IN THE URBAN
AREAS.

AFTER THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE ROLLED THRU LATER THIS EVE...THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL
START TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL TURN NWLY. THIS PASSAGE THOUGH WON`T
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...W/ WINDS ONLY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AT BEST
AND ONLY ABOUT A 5F DEG DEWPOINT DROP OVERALL...SO THE HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WE HEAD INTO WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND STABLE ON WED. NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM AND
RELATIVELY HUMID DAY...AS HIGHS WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE 90F DEG
MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE
L-M60S...CREATING HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND THE AMBIENT TEMP
LEVELS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RAISE BACK TO NEAR 70F...MIGHT AS WELL GET AREAS
OF FOG WORDING IN THE GRIDS. WITH THE HIGH PERSISTING
OFFSHORE...AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS BRINGS THE MID-ATLANTIC RIGHT
BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD LOW LEVEL FLOW BE MORE SELY
THAN SLY...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WOULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 90F THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BE A FACTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY AS THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF LINGERS THE
COLD FRONT OVER SERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME EARLIER SHOWER/TSTMS PASSED NEAR THE DC/BALT METRO
AREAS A FEW HRS AGO...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT. MORE
CLOUDS ON THE WAY FROM THE WEST...AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN. A WSW WIND DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS...W/ SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY -
SURROUNDING THE 00Z TIME PERIOD - W/IN A COUPLE HRS EITHER SIDE.
SOME EARLIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AFTER 18Z BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS ACTIVITY OFF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR WED.

FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT SWLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...THE HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 15KT OVER THE LOWER BAY ZONES. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS...THOUGH MORE OF A WLY DIRECTION TO THE FLOW THRU-
OUT THE DAY. SCTD TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...SO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE MARINE HAZARDS. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY
PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TURNING WINDS TO NWLY BUT STILL
LOWER THAN SCA CRIT. WED WILL SEE HIGH PRES BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND DROP WIND SPEEDS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVES WAY TO SLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANNELING
AGAIN (PROBABLY THURSDAY EVENING) BUT AS OF NOW THERE ARE NO SCA
HEADLINES EXPECTED. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 020759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT W/ MUCH OF THE REGIONAL OBS SHOWING
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S - PLENTY HUMID FOR AN EARLY SEPT NIGHT.
SMALLER SCALE RIPPLES IN THE LOWER ATMOS CAUSED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE
OVERNIGHT WHICH HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT EVIDENCE OF THE
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE TAPPED EVEN OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KIAD SNDG
FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWS OVER 2K J/KG SFC CAPE...THOUGH THE TYPICAL
NIGHTTIME DECOUPLING TOOK AWAY MUCH OF THE LL CONVERGENCE.

LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BASICALLY KEEP
THE OVERHEAD ATMOS IN MAINTENANCE MODE - ALLOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP W/ EVEN WEAK/DISORGANIZED FORCING. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS NOW REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS. THOUGH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...THE ARM OF LOW LEVEL ENERGY CAUSING THEM MAY DEVELOP MORE
ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDDAY. NEAR TERM WRF DERIVATIVES
LARGELY POINT TOWARD A LATE AFTN COLLECTION OF TSTMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SLIDING E THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE A FEW HRS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE
AFTN/EVE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY.

IT HAS BEEN A HOT/HUMID PAST FEW DAYS...AND TODAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE APEX OF THE CURRENT STRETCH. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WSW...BUT W/
SOME DOWNSLOPING LATER COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THESE WINDS MAY
ALSO DO WELL IN PREVENTING CONVECTION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE DAY.
DRY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS TYPICALLY NOT GOOD FOR CONVERGENCE...
SO A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR EFFECTIVE
INITIATION. HEATING WON`T BE AN ISSUE HOWEVER...W/ TEMPS QUICKLY
RISING RIGHT BACK INTO THE 80S THRU THE MRNG HRS AND L-M90S BY THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE MID AFTN. AN INFLUX OF DENSE LOW-MID CLOUD
DECKS FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTN MAY HELP TO CUT DOWN ON
THE HIGHER TEMPS...AND SO WOULD ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER HOT/HUMID
ENVIRONMENT W/ HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE U90S W/ A FEW LOCALES
POTENTIALLY POKING JUST ABOVE THE 100F DEG MARK IN THE URBAN
AREAS.

AFTER THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE ROLLED THRU LATER THIS EVE...THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL
START TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL TURN NWLY. THIS PASSAGE THOUGH WON`T
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...W/ WINDS ONLY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AT BEST
AND ONLY ABOUT A 5F DEG DEWPOINT DROP OVERALL...SO THE HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WE HEAD INTO WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND STABLE ON WED. NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM AND
RELATIVELY HUMID DAY...AS HIGHS WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE 90F DEG
MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE
L-M60S...CREATING HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND THE AMBIENT TEMP
LEVELS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RAISE BACK TO NEAR 70F...MIGHT AS WELL GET AREAS
OF FOG WORDING IN THE GRIDS. WITH THE HIGH PERSISTING
OFFSHORE...AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS BRINGS THE MID-ATLANTIC RIGHT
BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD LOW LEVEL FLOW BE MORE SELY
THAN SLY...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WOULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 90F THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BE A FACTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY AS THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF LINGERS THE
COLD FRONT OVER SERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME EARLIER SHOWER/TSTMS PASSED NEAR THE DC/BALT METRO
AREAS A FEW HRS AGO...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT. MORE
CLOUDS ON THE WAY FROM THE WEST...AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN. A WSW WIND DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS...W/ SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY -
SURROUNDING THE 00Z TIME PERIOD - W/IN A COUPLE HRS EITHER SIDE.
SOME EARLIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AFTER 18Z BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS ACTIVITY OFF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR WED.

FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT SWLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...THE HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 15KT OVER THE LOWER BAY ZONES. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS...THOUGH MORE OF A WLY DIRECTION TO THE FLOW THRU-
OUT THE DAY. SCTD TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...SO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE MARINE HAZARDS. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY
PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TURNING WINDS TO NWLY BUT STILL
LOWER THAN SCA CRIT. WED WILL SEE HIGH PRES BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND DROP WIND SPEEDS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVES WAY TO SLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANNELING
AGAIN (PROBABLY THURSDAY EVENING) BUT AS OF NOW THERE ARE NO SCA
HEADLINES EXPECTED. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 020759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT W/ MUCH OF THE REGIONAL OBS SHOWING
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S - PLENTY HUMID FOR AN EARLY SEPT NIGHT.
SMALLER SCALE RIPPLES IN THE LOWER ATMOS CAUSED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE
OVERNIGHT WHICH HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT EVIDENCE OF THE
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE TAPPED EVEN OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KIAD SNDG
FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWS OVER 2K J/KG SFC CAPE...THOUGH THE TYPICAL
NIGHTTIME DECOUPLING TOOK AWAY MUCH OF THE LL CONVERGENCE.

LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BASICALLY KEEP
THE OVERHEAD ATMOS IN MAINTENANCE MODE - ALLOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP W/ EVEN WEAK/DISORGANIZED FORCING. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS NOW REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS. THOUGH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...THE ARM OF LOW LEVEL ENERGY CAUSING THEM MAY DEVELOP MORE
ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDDAY. NEAR TERM WRF DERIVATIVES
LARGELY POINT TOWARD A LATE AFTN COLLECTION OF TSTMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SLIDING E THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE A FEW HRS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE
AFTN/EVE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY.

IT HAS BEEN A HOT/HUMID PAST FEW DAYS...AND TODAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE APEX OF THE CURRENT STRETCH. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WSW...BUT W/
SOME DOWNSLOPING LATER COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THESE WINDS MAY
ALSO DO WELL IN PREVENTING CONVECTION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE DAY.
DRY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS TYPICALLY NOT GOOD FOR CONVERGENCE...
SO A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR EFFECTIVE
INITIATION. HEATING WON`T BE AN ISSUE HOWEVER...W/ TEMPS QUICKLY
RISING RIGHT BACK INTO THE 80S THRU THE MRNG HRS AND L-M90S BY THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE MID AFTN. AN INFLUX OF DENSE LOW-MID CLOUD
DECKS FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTN MAY HELP TO CUT DOWN ON
THE HIGHER TEMPS...AND SO WOULD ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL ALSO CREATE ANOTHER HOT/HUMID
ENVIRONMENT W/ HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE U90S W/ A FEW LOCALES
POTENTIALLY POKING JUST ABOVE THE 100F DEG MARK IN THE URBAN
AREAS.

AFTER THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE ROLLED THRU LATER THIS EVE...THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL
START TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL TURN NWLY. THIS PASSAGE THOUGH WON`T
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...W/ WINDS ONLY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AT BEST
AND ONLY ABOUT A 5F DEG DEWPOINT DROP OVERALL...SO THE HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WE HEAD INTO WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND STABLE ON WED. NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM AND
RELATIVELY HUMID DAY...AS HIGHS WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE 90F DEG
MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE
L-M60S...CREATING HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND THE AMBIENT TEMP
LEVELS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RAISE BACK TO NEAR 70F...MIGHT AS WELL GET AREAS
OF FOG WORDING IN THE GRIDS. WITH THE HIGH PERSISTING
OFFSHORE...AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS BRINGS THE MID-ATLANTIC RIGHT
BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD LOW LEVEL FLOW BE MORE SELY
THAN SLY...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WOULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 90F THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BE A FACTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY AS THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF LINGERS THE
COLD FRONT OVER SERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME EARLIER SHOWER/TSTMS PASSED NEAR THE DC/BALT METRO
AREAS A FEW HRS AGO...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT. MORE
CLOUDS ON THE WAY FROM THE WEST...AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN. A WSW WIND DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS...W/ SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY -
SURROUNDING THE 00Z TIME PERIOD - W/IN A COUPLE HRS EITHER SIDE.
SOME EARLIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AFTER 18Z BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS ACTIVITY OFF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR WED.

FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT SWLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...THE HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 15KT OVER THE LOWER BAY ZONES. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS...THOUGH MORE OF A WLY DIRECTION TO THE FLOW THRU-
OUT THE DAY. SCTD TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...SO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE MARINE HAZARDS. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY
PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TURNING WINDS TO NWLY BUT STILL
LOWER THAN SCA CRIT. WED WILL SEE HIGH PRES BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND DROP WIND SPEEDS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVES WAY TO SLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CHANNELING
AGAIN (PROBABLY THURSDAY EVENING) BUT AS OF NOW THERE ARE NO SCA
HEADLINES EXPECTED. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 020228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME VERY ISOLATED. ONE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS VA MAY BRUSH
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND OTHER SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE APPROACHING THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HRRR HAS DEPICTED THIS PRETTY WELL...AND
INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED...CLOUD TOPS ON THE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS
ARE AT -36C...INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF BWI/MTN. FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLIER GUSTS ON THE WATERS NEAR TANGIER SOUND HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/BPP/KCS
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 020228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME VERY ISOLATED. ONE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS VA MAY BRUSH
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND OTHER SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE APPROACHING THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HRRR HAS DEPICTED THIS PRETTY WELL...AND
INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED...CLOUD TOPS ON THE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS
ARE AT -36C...INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF BWI/MTN. FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLIER GUSTS ON THE WATERS NEAR TANGIER SOUND HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/BPP/KCS
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 012357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
757 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV...AND SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING EASTERN WV. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN THE EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL FOSTER A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH MOIST AIR
IN PLACE...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPE TO DROP BELOW 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN WV
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A VORT MAX APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KCHO. FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT NOTED NEAR TANGIER SOUND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS AROUND 1-2KFT. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE OPEN COOLER WATERS...AND NEARSHORE GUSTS SHOULD
DECREASE AS INSTABILITY OVER LAND DECREASES. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/KCS/BPP
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 012357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
757 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV...AND SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING EASTERN WV. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN THE EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL FOSTER A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH MOIST AIR
IN PLACE...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPE TO DROP BELOW 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN WV
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A VORT MAX APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KCHO. FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT NOTED NEAR TANGIER SOUND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS AROUND 1-2KFT. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE OPEN COOLER WATERS...AND NEARSHORE GUSTS SHOULD
DECREASE AS INSTABILITY OVER LAND DECREASES. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/KCS/BPP
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ACROSS THE CWA...CU HAVE
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS PEAK HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS
WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 DEGREES ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS LIKELY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCORPORATING LATEST RUNS OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV/NORTHERN
VA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS EITHER BUT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST/DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SUN
SETS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUBS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY ENDING BY SUNSET. VCTS CURRENTLY IN
TAFS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR TSRA INCLUSION.
REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...TSRA POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CEM
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BPP/CEM
MARINE...BPP/CEM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ACROSS THE CWA...CU HAVE
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS PEAK HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS
WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 DEGREES ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS LIKELY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCORPORATING LATEST RUNS OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV/NORTHERN
VA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS EITHER BUT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST/DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SUN
SETS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUBS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY ENDING BY SUNSET. VCTS CURRENTLY IN
TAFS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR TSRA INCLUSION.
REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...TSRA POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CEM
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BPP/CEM
MARINE...BPP/CEM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 011358
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING WAS JUICY...PW VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS LIKELY TO EXPAND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN WHY RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT VARIOUS POINTS SHOW THE PW VALUE DECREASING A BIT BY
AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN 1.75" ISN/T BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHLANDS BY
MIDDAY. AM UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT
COVERAGE...BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /MAYBE
LOW END SCATTERED/ TO FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON. POPS/WX REFLECT THIS.

GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO MOVE CONVECTION AND THUS LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT IF SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK THIS SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE HUBS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
JUST A PASSING SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18-19Z...THUS THE VCTS. THIS MAY BE
TOO EARLY...AND AM SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL
BE APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF-ARW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW VIS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011358
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING WAS JUICY...PW VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS LIKELY TO EXPAND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN WHY RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT VARIOUS POINTS SHOW THE PW VALUE DECREASING A BIT BY
AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN 1.75" ISN/T BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHLANDS BY
MIDDAY. AM UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT
COVERAGE...BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /MAYBE
LOW END SCATTERED/ TO FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON. POPS/WX REFLECT THIS.

GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO MOVE CONVECTION AND THUS LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT IF SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK THIS SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE HUBS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
JUST A PASSING SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18-19Z...THUS THE VCTS. THIS MAY BE
TOO EARLY...AND AM SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL
BE APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF-ARW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW VIS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EVENING ACTIVITY IS STILL LYING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. A DIURNAL RESURGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH
LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/ WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI
INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
10 TO 15KT SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT PERSISTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 010759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EVENING ACTIVITY IS STILL LYING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. A DIURNAL RESURGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH
LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/ WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI
INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
10 TO 15KT SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT PERSISTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010049
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS NMRS SHRA/TSRA FM OMH/OKV THRU DCA TO
NAK. ACTIVITY ATTM SUPPORTED BY A TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WHICH WL BE
CROSSING THE AREA THRU 06Z. RAFL RATES STILL AOA 1 INCH/HR...AND
00Z LWX RAOB CONTAINS 2.2 IN PWAT. HWVR...W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS ENERGY SPENT FM PRVS STORMS...CAPE VALUES
HOVERING ARND 1000 J/KG PER MESO ANALY. /OUR RAOB ONLY CONTAINS
ABT 600 J/KG...W/ 125 J/KG CINH/. THEREFORE...XPCT A CONTD DECLINE
IN TERMS OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS. INSTEAD...WE SHUD BE LOOKING AT
JUST HVY RAINERS FOR THE REST OF THE ENVG.

IN TERMS OF HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT...HRRR HAS BEEN PROVIDING A
FAIRLY REASONABLE DEPICTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HRS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WUD THINK THAT THE CRRDR RECEIVING SHRA/STORMS WL
CONT TO DO SO THRU AT LEAST MIDNGT. AFT THAT...CNVCTN WL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE...BUT STILL IN THE SAME ZONE.

TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY FM W OF IAD TO NEAR NAK/BWI THX TO ERLR
TSRA. BUT...THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR DEWPTS ATTM...SO ADDTL COOLING
NOT XPCTD. USED LAMP GDNC TO RETOOL TEMPS...BUT IMPACT ON MIN-T
FCST MINIMAL.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...AM JUST DEPICTING
PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO FAVORED VLYS. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN THE STRIPE FM HEF/IAD TO BWI/NAK WL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. TSRA HAS MOSTLY PUSHED S/E OF
THE TERMINALS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHRA...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ADDTL SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WL HOLD METROS AT
VFR AND KEEP PREDAWN MVFR AT ONLY CHO/MRB. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN WL NEED TO REASSESS.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE. WL BE KEEPING VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS.
HWVR...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN SHRA/TSRA.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY CNVCTN.
CASE IN POINT...TPLM2 WNDS HV SWITCHED ARND TO NLY. HWVR...STRONGER
STORMS MAY HV HIER WND GUSTS...AND WL BE COVERED BY SMW/S. CRRNT
THINKING IS TO RIDE OUT GOING SCA FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY
THRU ITS 11PM EXPIRATION.

SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON. GDNC CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER THAN TDA.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT.
LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED NEAR WASH DC HAS PUSHED SOME OF THE
WATER OUT OF THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS THE
TIDE ROLLS BACK IN AGAIN. ANNAPOLIS ON THE CUSP OF EXCEEDING
MINOR CRITERIA ATTM...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE.

AS SLY FLOW LIGHTENS MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DEPARTURES
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE /MON
AM/...WHICH IS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ANYWAY...SHOULDNT RESULT
IN ADDTL INUNDATION. OF COURSE...WE/LL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010049
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS NMRS SHRA/TSRA FM OMH/OKV THRU DCA TO
NAK. ACTIVITY ATTM SUPPORTED BY A TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WHICH WL BE
CROSSING THE AREA THRU 06Z. RAFL RATES STILL AOA 1 INCH/HR...AND
00Z LWX RAOB CONTAINS 2.2 IN PWAT. HWVR...W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS ENERGY SPENT FM PRVS STORMS...CAPE VALUES
HOVERING ARND 1000 J/KG PER MESO ANALY. /OUR RAOB ONLY CONTAINS
ABT 600 J/KG...W/ 125 J/KG CINH/. THEREFORE...XPCT A CONTD DECLINE
IN TERMS OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS. INSTEAD...WE SHUD BE LOOKING AT
JUST HVY RAINERS FOR THE REST OF THE ENVG.

IN TERMS OF HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT...HRRR HAS BEEN PROVIDING A
FAIRLY REASONABLE DEPICTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HRS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WUD THINK THAT THE CRRDR RECEIVING SHRA/STORMS WL
CONT TO DO SO THRU AT LEAST MIDNGT. AFT THAT...CNVCTN WL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE...BUT STILL IN THE SAME ZONE.

TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY FM W OF IAD TO NEAR NAK/BWI THX TO ERLR
TSRA. BUT...THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR DEWPTS ATTM...SO ADDTL COOLING
NOT XPCTD. USED LAMP GDNC TO RETOOL TEMPS...BUT IMPACT ON MIN-T
FCST MINIMAL.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...AM JUST DEPICTING
PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO FAVORED VLYS. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN THE STRIPE FM HEF/IAD TO BWI/NAK WL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. TSRA HAS MOSTLY PUSHED S/E OF
THE TERMINALS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHRA...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ADDTL SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WL HOLD METROS AT
VFR AND KEEP PREDAWN MVFR AT ONLY CHO/MRB. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN WL NEED TO REASSESS.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE. WL BE KEEPING VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS.
HWVR...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN SHRA/TSRA.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY CNVCTN.
CASE IN POINT...TPLM2 WNDS HV SWITCHED ARND TO NLY. HWVR...STRONGER
STORMS MAY HV HIER WND GUSTS...AND WL BE COVERED BY SMW/S. CRRNT
THINKING IS TO RIDE OUT GOING SCA FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY
THRU ITS 11PM EXPIRATION.

SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON. GDNC CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER THAN TDA.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT.
LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED NEAR WASH DC HAS PUSHED SOME OF THE
WATER OUT OF THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS THE
TIDE ROLLS BACK IN AGAIN. ANNAPOLIS ON THE CUSP OF EXCEEDING
MINOR CRITERIA ATTM...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE.

AS SLY FLOW LIGHTENS MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DEPARTURES
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE /MON
AM/...WHICH IS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ANYWAY...SHOULDNT RESULT
IN ADDTL INUNDATION. OF COURSE...WE/LL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MRNG. THE ERN SEABOARD
W/IN WARM/HUMID S/SWLY FLOW...AHD OF A CDFNT ACRS SRN CNDA.
STLT/WATER VAPOR IMGRY DEPICT A STREAM OF MSTR AHD OF THE
CDFNT...EMINATING FM THE GLFMEX UP ALONG THE APLCHNS TO THE UPR
OHVLY/ERN GRTLKS. PWAT W/IN THIS ZONE AOA 2 INCHES.

MRNG LWX RAOB DEPICTS AN INVSN ARND H9...BUT A VERY UNSTBL
ENVIRONMENT ABV THAT. DAYTIME HEATING SHUD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
INVSN...BUT WL AT LEAST HOLD THINGS IN CHECK FOR A LTL WHILE. A
PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BKN OFF FM MAIN STREAM...PROVIDING SHRA TO THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS WL MAKE IT TO THE
CATOCTINS BEFORE DSPTG...LKLY A RESULT OF THE INVSN. WHILE FULL
SUN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...ADVANCING CLDCVR LKLY WL KEEP MAXT LWR
THAN THAT. UPDTD TEMPS TO LTST LAMP SINCE POTL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS HIER THAN MID-UPR 80S.

USING A TEMP OF 90F AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S...SHUD HV 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE BY LT DAY. BUT...FORCING WL COME IN THE WAY OF PVA/MID
LVL 20-30 KT FLOW...AND THAT WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 18Z FOR THE
MTNS...AND CLSR TO 00Z FOR THE CSTL PLAIN. ALSO NEED TO BE MINDFUL
OF THE DIFF HTG BNDRY...WHICH CUD BE ANTHR SOURCE OF INITIATION.
CERTAINLY HV THE DOWNDRAFT POTL FOR STRONG STORMS TDA...BUT DONT
THINK WE/LL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE FULL POTL. CANNOT RULE OUT LCL WET
MICROBURSTS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE.

AMPLE MSTR WL ALSO LEAD TO HVY RAINERS...THE OTHER THREAT THIS PM.
RAFL RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO A LCL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
SPCLY UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS HV CLRD ACRS THE TERMINALS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
XPCTD TO DVLP LATER TDA INTO THIS EVNG. LCL IFR PSBL. SCT NATURE
OF THE THREAT LENDS TO VCTS IN TAF ATTM. MORE SPECIFIC
RESTRICTIONS WL BE PLACED INTO FCST WHEN/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. GUSTS TAFTN WL APPROACH SCA
LIMITS. AM CONSIDERING POSTING ADVY FOR THE AFTN-EVNG. FLOW PTTN
CONTS INTO MON.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL NOT CAUSE
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS MIGHTY CLOSE TO ADVY AT ANNAPOLIS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE DAY. THE PM TIDE IS THE HIGHER ONE
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO WL NEED TO CONSIDER ADVYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MRNG. THE ERN SEABOARD
W/IN WARM/HUMID S/SWLY FLOW...AHD OF A CDFNT ACRS SRN CNDA.
STLT/WATER VAPOR IMGRY DEPICT A STREAM OF MSTR AHD OF THE
CDFNT...EMINATING FM THE GLFMEX UP ALONG THE APLCHNS TO THE UPR
OHVLY/ERN GRTLKS. PWAT W/IN THIS ZONE AOA 2 INCHES.

MRNG LWX RAOB DEPICTS AN INVSN ARND H9...BUT A VERY UNSTBL
ENVIRONMENT ABV THAT. DAYTIME HEATING SHUD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
INVSN...BUT WL AT LEAST HOLD THINGS IN CHECK FOR A LTL WHILE. A
PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BKN OFF FM MAIN STREAM...PROVIDING SHRA TO THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS WL MAKE IT TO THE
CATOCTINS BEFORE DSPTG...LKLY A RESULT OF THE INVSN. WHILE FULL
SUN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...ADVANCING CLDCVR LKLY WL KEEP MAXT LWR
THAN THAT. UPDTD TEMPS TO LTST LAMP SINCE POTL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS HIER THAN MID-UPR 80S.

USING A TEMP OF 90F AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S...SHUD HV 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE BY LT DAY. BUT...FORCING WL COME IN THE WAY OF PVA/MID
LVL 20-30 KT FLOW...AND THAT WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 18Z FOR THE
MTNS...AND CLSR TO 00Z FOR THE CSTL PLAIN. ALSO NEED TO BE MINDFUL
OF THE DIFF HTG BNDRY...WHICH CUD BE ANTHR SOURCE OF INITIATION.
CERTAINLY HV THE DOWNDRAFT POTL FOR STRONG STORMS TDA...BUT DONT
THINK WE/LL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE FULL POTL. CANNOT RULE OUT LCL WET
MICROBURSTS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE.

AMPLE MSTR WL ALSO LEAD TO HVY RAINERS...THE OTHER THREAT THIS PM.
RAFL RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO A LCL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
SPCLY UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS HV CLRD ACRS THE TERMINALS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
XPCTD TO DVLP LATER TDA INTO THIS EVNG. LCL IFR PSBL. SCT NATURE
OF THE THREAT LENDS TO VCTS IN TAF ATTM. MORE SPECIFIC
RESTRICTIONS WL BE PLACED INTO FCST WHEN/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. GUSTS TAFTN WL APPROACH SCA
LIMITS. AM CONSIDERING POSTING ADVY FOR THE AFTN-EVNG. FLOW PTTN
CONTS INTO MON.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL NOT CAUSE
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS MIGHTY CLOSE TO ADVY AT ANNAPOLIS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE DAY. THE PM TIDE IS THE HIGHER ONE
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO WL NEED TO CONSIDER ADVYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








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