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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020801 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 3AM...JET STREAM FROM DESERT SW TO SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS A HIGH BUILDING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
HIGH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST WITH THE NEXT BATCH...
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER WV. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND DETERMINE IF IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE.

LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING TO
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT IN 30 KT BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 1500 J/KG
CAPE. PRESENCE OF DIFFERNTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OF RETREATING CAD
WEDGE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BAY BREEZE BRINGS A TORNADO THREAT TO THE
BALT-WASH METRO. MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F FROM SUPERBLEND...HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL AS CAD WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED COLD
FRONT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST IN WAKE OF SFC LOW...POPS DECREASE
LATE. MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F.

CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE XTND PD WL BE THE UPR TROF SITUATED
OVR THE NERN U.S. WED NGT-FRI. THIS WL ENSURE XTNSV CLD CVR FOR
THE AREA ALONG W/ CHCS FOR RAFL. HIGH TEMPS - IN THE 60S...WL BE
ABT TEN DEGS BLO NRML FOR ERLY MAY.

LOW IS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE NE SAT...BRINGING A RETURN VISIT FM
THE SUN. AFTN HTG COULD BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW SAT. A CD FNT MAY
PUSH THRU THE RGN SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD AIR DAMMING SLOWLY
BREAKS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST VIRGINIA MAY CROSS THE DC METROS
THROUGH SUNRISE. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE FRONT STALLS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED MARGINAL CONDS.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.

XTNSV CLD CVR WL BE IN THE FCST OVR THE MID ATLC WED NGT-
FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS MAY BE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

WINDS XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA LVLS DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 3AM...JET STREAM FROM DESERT SW TO SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS A HIGH BUILDING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
HIGH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST WITH THE NEXT BATCH...
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER WV. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND DETERMINE IF IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE.

LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING TO
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT IN 30 KT BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 1500 J/KG
CAPE. PRESENCE OF DIFFERNTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OF RETREATING CAD
WEDGE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BAY BREEZE BRINGS A TORNADO THREAT TO THE
BALT-WASH METRO. MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F FROM SUPERBLEND...HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL AS CAD WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED COLD
FRONT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST IN WAKE OF SFC LOW...POPS DECREASE
LATE. MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F.

CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE XTND PD WL BE THE UPR TROF SITUATED
OVR THE NERN U.S. WED NGT-FRI. THIS WL ENSURE XTNSV CLD CVR FOR
THE AREA ALONG W/ CHCS FOR RAFL. HIGH TEMPS - IN THE 60S...WL BE
ABT TEN DEGS BLO NRML FOR ERLY MAY.

LOW IS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE NE SAT...BRINGING A RETURN VISIT FM
THE SUN. AFTN HTG COULD BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW SAT. A CD FNT MAY
PUSH THRU THE RGN SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

XTNSV CLD CVR WL BE IN THE FCST OVR THE MID ATLC WED NGT-
FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS MAY BE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA LVLS DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020100
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM WESTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COOL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING
IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. FOG
MAY BE DENSE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS HILLTOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME WITH
CONCERN BEING THAT THE STRATUS DECK MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD VSBYS
AT OR BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE COOLER AIR.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE MON MORNING WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO PA. SOME
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED. BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SRN HALF AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CDFNT WILL NOT CLEAR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES MON NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
700-500 MB WAVE. MULTIPLE SFC WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
MON NIGHT ALONG SLOW MOVING BDRY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...THEN DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STUBBORN FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE AREA.

A LARGE/COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA STRAIGHT SOUTH TO
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY PIVOT OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
MODELS ARE MODEST WITH INSTABILITY IN SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME BUT
COULD SEE AN INCREASING TREND GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT IF FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/WARM COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LEADING TO A STRONG
WARMING TREND BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF FOG. IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE DENSE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS AROUND
ONE-QUARTER MILE POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIFT MONDAY MORNING. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT RAIN MON NIGHT.

SUB-VFR PSBL TUE-WED IN ANY LWR CIGS/SHWRS W/ FRONT STALLED
NEARBY. WINDS GENERALLY ELY 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA BUT GUSTY NEAR T-STORMS
ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON MIDDLE AND LOWER PORTIONS OF POTOMAC AND
CHES BAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS WITH A
FRONT STALLED NEARBY...LEADING TO GUSTS THAT SHOULD STAY LARGELY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/DFH
MARINE...BJL/LFR/DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020100
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM WESTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COOL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING
IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. FOG
MAY BE DENSE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS HILLTOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME WITH
CONCERN BEING THAT THE STRATUS DECK MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD VSBYS
AT OR BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE COOLER AIR.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE MON MORNING WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 70S AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO PA. SOME
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED. BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SRN HALF AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CDFNT WILL NOT CLEAR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES MON NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
700-500 MB WAVE. MULTIPLE SFC WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
MON NIGHT ALONG SLOW MOVING BDRY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...THEN DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STUBBORN FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE AREA.

A LARGE/COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA STRAIGHT SOUTH TO
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY PIVOT OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
MODELS ARE MODEST WITH INSTABILITY IN SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME BUT
COULD SEE AN INCREASING TREND GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT IF FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/WARM COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LEADING TO A STRONG
WARMING TREND BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF FOG. IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE DENSE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS AROUND
ONE-QUARTER MILE POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIFT MONDAY MORNING. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT RAIN MON NIGHT.

SUB-VFR PSBL TUE-WED IN ANY LWR CIGS/SHWRS W/ FRONT STALLED
NEARBY. WINDS GENERALLY ELY 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA BUT GUSTY NEAR T-STORMS
ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON MIDDLE AND LOWER PORTIONS OF POTOMAC AND
CHES BAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS WITH A
FRONT STALLED NEARBY...LEADING TO GUSTS THAT SHOULD STAY LARGELY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/DFH
MARINE...BJL/LFR/DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
FROM WRN PA SEWD TO THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS TO THE NC/VA BORDER.
T-STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OH/KY ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD
AROUND 30 KTS AND MAKE IT INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THEY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BUT SOME COULD REMAIN STRONG AS THEY CROSS THE MTNS WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE. SHOWERS EXPECTED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE ATMS MUCH MORE STABLE. OVERNIGHT...WE`LL SEE LOW
AND MID LEVELS (850-500 MB LAYER) DRY OUT AND SUBSIDENCE WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS. MORNING FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE MON MORNING WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 70S AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO PA. SOME DESTABILIZATION
IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS EXPECTED. BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN HALF
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CDFNT WILL NOT CLEAR THOSE AREAS
UNTIL EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES MON
NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF 700-500 MB WAVE. MULTIPLE SFC
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT ALONG SLOW MOVING
BDRY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STUBBORN FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE AREA.

A LARGE/COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA STRAIGHT SOUTH TO
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY PIVOT OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
MODELS ARE MODEST WITH INSTABILITY IN SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME BUT
COULD SEE AN INCREASING TREND GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT IF FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/WARM COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LEADING TO A STRONG
WARMING TREND BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR NOW
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS MOVE THROUGH. AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH LIFR AND VLIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT RAIN MON NIGHT.

SUB-VFR PSBL TUE-WED IN ANY LWR CIGS/SHWRS W/ FRONT STALLED
NEARBY. WINDS GENERALLY ELY 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA BUT GUSTY NEAR T-STORMS
ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON MIDDLE AND LOWER PORTIONS OF POTOMAC AND
CHES BAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS WITH A
FRONT STALLED NEARBY...LEADING TO GUSTS THAT SHOULD STAY LARGELY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...LFR/DFH
MARINE...LFR/DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011427 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 18Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM FRONT WILL
GET HUNG UP IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FCST AREA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
CAPE VALUES FROM SVRL MODELS INDICATE THE WRN PART OF THE FCST
WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA AND
T-STORMS. ANY T-STORMS MOVING PAST THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

USED A 24-HR TREND FOR MAXT FROM ECMWF TODAY. THIS YIELDS THE
SMALLEST 24-HR CHANGE FROM ANY MODELS. HIGHS AROUND 60F EASTERN
AREAS AND IN THE LOW-MID 70S WRN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOPRES IN PA WL TRACK TWD NEW ENGLAND MON MRNG...WHICH WL PUSH A
CDFNT THRU THE AREA. WL BE KEEPING POPS GOING FOR THE MRNG HRS.
BELIEVE THERE SHUD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN WLY FLOW BHD FNT...AND
WL ATTEMPT TO PRESERVE THE DRY PD /PT-MOSUNNY SKIES/ IN FCST.
HWVR...THERE IS GREATER DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR SE THE FNT WL BE ABLE
TO TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING OUT. WAVES OF WK LOPRES WL BE SHOOTING
THRU THIS ZONE... SO THE FRNTL POSN WL BE CRITICAL.

FIRST GOOD OPPORTUNITY OF SUCH COMES MON EVE. CONSEQUENTLY POPS
HV BEEN RAISED FM PREV FCST. HV ALSO ADDED THUNDER IN LIGHT OF DAY
2 SPC OUTLK. HWVR...FCSTG SUCH IMPULSES MORE THAN A DAY IN ADVC
CAN BE PROBLEMATIC AT TIMES...AND THUS HV A LWR OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN SOLN.

ADDTL WAVES OF LOPRES CROSS AREA TUE-TUE NGT. ITS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN TIMING DETAILS IN THIS PTTN. THUS...ONLY BROAD STROKES WERE
PLACED IN DATABASE.

SHUD BE ABLE TO GET QUITE WARM MON IN WAKE OF FROPA PROVIDED
CNVCTN HOLDS OFF. HV TAKEN THAT RTE IN MAXT GRID. THERE WL BE
MUCH LESS OF A DIURNAL RANGE ONCE SHRA RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE XTND FCST IS SOMEWHAT OF A BKN RECORD COURTESY OF THE UPR LVL
PATTERN W/ A LARGE RDG/OMEGA BLOCK OVR THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED
LOW OVR THE NERN U.S. WED MAY BE THE BEST DAY OF THE XTND PD AS
ONE LOW PULLS OUT TO THE NE FM THE MID ATLC...BUT THERE`LL STILL
BE THE PSBLTY OF RW. HIGHS WED 65-70.

AFTR THAT AN UPR LVL SHORT WV DIVES DOWN INTO THE ALREADY-PRSNT
UPR LOW...CAUSING INTENSIFICATION AND THE LOW TO CUT OFF...BCMG
STATIONARY OVR THE NERN U.S. THU-SAT. XTNSV CLD CVR W/ RW...HIGHS
IN THE M60S..LOWS IN THE MU40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE KMRB
AND KCHO MAY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR LATER TODAY.

THERE SHUD BE IMPRVMNT TAFTN AS RA DEPARTS...BUT QSTN WL BE HOW
MUCH. DONT THINK IT/LL BE MUCH INVOF BWI /THEY STAY IN STBL WEDGE
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MSTR/...WHILE SUSPECT WE/LL REACH VFR /WARM
SECTOR/ AT CHO. IN THAT WARM SECTOR...SCT TSRA MAY DVLP...WHICH WL
STBLZ AS THEY HEAD NE. RESTRICTIONS WL CONT THRU TNGT.

CFP MON MRNG. SHUD ACHIEVE VFR AFTER THAT POINT. HWVR...ADDTL SHRA
/TSRA?/ MON NGT...WHICH WL CONT PERIODICALLY THRU TUE NGT. THESE
MAY YIELD ADDTL FLGT RESTRICTIONS.

VFR CONDS WED OUTSIDE OF RW WED...THEN OVC SKIES THU W/
RW...PSBLY DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS 10-15 KT ATTM...WHICH SHUD BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF TDA.
MAY SEE SOME VEERING S...SPCLY FOR MID BAY/LWR PTMC...BUT SPDS
SHUD BE UNDER 10 KT.

CFP MON...WHICH WL TRANSITION WIND TRAJ TO WLY...BUT FNT WEAK AND
WONT CLEAR WATERS BY MUCH...SO DONT SUSPECT WE/LL SEE A SURGE BHD
FNT. THUS...NO SCA ANTICIPATED THRU TUE.

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS WED OR THU OTHER THAN RW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR/HTS/ABW
MARINE...LFR/HTS/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010729
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THTE RDG ADVCG ACRS CWFA ATTM. SYNOPTIALLY...HIPRES RDG FM NEW
ENGLAND STILL ASSERTING ITS INFLUENCE ACRS THE MID ATLC. THIS IS
EVIDENT INTHE PCPN PTTN AS WELL...SINCE HEAVIER PCPN RATES STILL
NEAR THTE AXIS...ALONG AND W OF THE APLCNS. LCLLY...RAFL HAS BEEN
MAINLY LGT.

GDNC CONTG ITS TREND OF SLOWLY MVG THE STREAM OF RICH MSTR EWD.
BASED ON RAP/HRRR/WRF-ARW4...PDS OF RA SHUD CONT TIL ABT 16-18Z.
HV USED CAT TO LKLY POPS DURING THIS TIME...THAT GRDLY TAPER RAFL
OFF AS ISENT RDG SHIFTS EWD. THE PRESENCE OF CLDS/RAFL SHUD KEEP
ATMOS STBL THRU THIS TIME.

SCENARIO BECOMES A LTL MORE MUDDLED FOR THE AFTN-EVE HRS. BELIEVE
THERE WL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN BEFORE ADDTL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA DVLP AS WAA/UPGLIDE CONTS. GDNC QUITE A BIT MORE RESERVED
WRT INSTBY...GIVING MORE CREEDENCE TO CAD WEDGE. CONSIDERING NOT
JUST MDL BIAS BUT ALSO PCPN TIMING... THIS MAKES SENSE. HWVR...
LAPSE RATES/SHEAR W OF THE WEDGE WL BE QUITE STRONG. WHILE THUNDER
RISK FOR CWFA HAS BEEN TRIMMED OVERALL...STILL HV LKLY THUNDER
GNLY IN SAME AREA WHERE SPC PLACED MRGL RISK OF SVR /APLCNS AS
WELL AS PARTS OF AUGUSTA AND NELSON CNTYS/. THUNDER RISK TAPERS
OFF TO THE NE. DONT THINK METRO BALT WL SEE ANY THUNDER...NOT EVEN
ELEVATED. HWVR...STORMS DVLPG IN THE UNSTBL AMS WL OVERRUN THE
COOL LLVLS AND GRDLY STRATIFY. THIS PROCESS WL CONT MUCH OF THE
NGT. LOPRES TRACKING INTO PA TNGT WL DROP A CDFNT TWD AREA. THIS
SUPPORT WL KEEP PCPN GOING PAST THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CNVCTV PD.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...WE/VE BEEN UNDERCUTTING MOS FOR NE MD...AND
WL CONT THAT PRACTICE TDA. IN CONTRAST...AM A CPL DEGF ABV ACRS
CHO AND THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...WHICH HAS BEST CHC AT ENTERING THE
WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOPRES IN PA WL TRACK TWD NEW ENGLAND MON MRNG...WHICH WL PUSH A
CDFNT THRU THE AREA. WL BE KEEPING POPS GOING FOR THE MRNG HRS.
BELIEVE THERE SHUD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN WLY FLOW BHD FNT...AND
WL ATTEMPT TO PRESERVE THE DRY PD /PT-MOSUNNY SKIES/ IN FCST.
HWVR...THERE IS GREATER DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR SE THE FNT WL BE ABLE
TO TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING OUT. WAVES OF WK LOPRES WL BE SHOOTING
THRU THIS ZONE... SO THE FRNTL POSN WL BE CRITICAL.

FIRST GOOD OPPORTUNITY OF SUCH COMES MON EVE. CONSEQUENTLY POPS
HV BEEN RAISED FM PREV FCST. HV ALSO ADDED THUNDER IN LIGHT OF DAY
2 SPC OUTLK. HWVR...FCSTG SUCH IMPULSES MORE THAN A DAY IN ADVC
CAN BE PROBLEMATIC AT TIMES...AND THUS HV A LWR OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN SOLN.

ADDTL WAVES OF LOPRES CROSS AREA TUE-TUE NGT. ITS TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN TIMING DETAILS IN THIS PTTN. THUS...ONLY BROAD STROKES WERE
PLACED IN DATABASE.

SHUD BE ABLE TO GET QUITE WARM MON IN WAKE OF FROPA PROVIDED
CNVCTN HOLDS OFF. HV TAKEN THAT RTE IN MAXT GRID. THERE WL BE
MUCH LESS OF A DIURNAL RANGE ONCE SHRA RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE XTND FCST IS SOMEWHAT OF A BKN RECORD COURTESY OF THE UPR LVL
PATTERN W/ A LARGE RDG/OMEGA BLOCK OVR THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED
LOW OVR THE NERN U.S. WED MAY BE THE BEST DAY OF THE XTND PD AS
ONE LOW PULLS OUT TO THE NE FM THE MID ATLC...BUT THERE`LL STILL
BE THE PSBLTY OF RW. HIGHS WED 65-70.

AFTR THAT AN UPR LVL SHORT WV DIVES DOWN INTO THE ALREADY-PRSNT
UPR LOW...CAUSING INTENSIFICATION AND THE LOW TO CUT OFF...BCMG
STATIONARY OVR THE NERN U.S. THU-SAT. XTNSV CLD CVR W/ RW...HIGHS
IN THE M60S..LOWS IN THE MU40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE FLGT CONDS HV GNLY HELD IN VFR RANGE THUS FAR...IAD HAS
DROPPED INTO IFR. BELIEVE THAT CONDS OVERALL WL DETERIORATE...BUT
HV LMTD CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR BEFORE DAWN. ONCE WE GET INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS...CONDS SHUD CONT TO WORSEN AS RAFL CONTS. DO HV
IFR FM DAYBREAK INTO MIDDAY.

THERE SHUD BE IMPRVMNT TAFTN AS RA DEPARTS...BUT QSTN WL BE HOW
MUCH. DONT THINK IT/LL BE MUCH INVOF BWI /THEY STAY IN STBL WEDGE
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MSTR/...WHILE SUSPECT WE/LL REACH VFR /WARM
SECTOR/ AT CHO. IN THAT WARM SECTOR...SCT TSRA MAY DVLP...WHICH WL
STBLZ AS THEY HEAD NE. RESTRICTIONS WL CONT THRU TNGT.

CFP MON MRNG. SHUD ACHIEVE VFR AFTER THAT POINT. HWVR...ADDTL SHRA
/TSRA?/ MON NGT...WHICH WL CONT PERIODICALLY THRU TUE NGT. THESE
MAY YIELD ADDTL FLGT RESTRICTIONS.

VFR CONDS WED OUTSIDE OF RW WED...THEN OVC SKIES THU W/
RW...PSBLY DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS 10-15 KT ATTM...WHICH SHUD BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF TDA.
MAY SEE SOME VEERING S...SPCLY FOR MID BAY/LWR PTMC...BUT SPDS
SHUD BE UNDER 10 KT.

CFP MON...WHICH WL TRANSITION WIND TRAJ TO WLY...BUT FNT WEAK AND
WONT CLEAR WATERS BY MUCH...SO DONT SUSPECT WE/LL SEE A SURGE BHD
FNT. THUS...NO SCA ANTICIPATED THRU TUE.

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS WED OR THU OTHER THAN RW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS RUNNING ABOUT 3/4 FT TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMALS. LATEST
ETSS GDNC SUGGESTS TIDES TODAY WILL COME IN UNDER MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS...BUT FOR SGSM2 AND ANNAPOLIS...ITS ONLY BY A COUPLE OF
INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS THERE IS ROOM FOR ERROR.

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...
BUT ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL LATER MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HTS/WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010014
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
814 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND A
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS INTO NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE
COOL AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A SOAKING RAIN
TONIGHT. ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF
TO -SHRA BY 18Z SUNDAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH
INSTABILITY THAT COULD KICK T-STORMS AS CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH
AND AN INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUN NIGHT AS MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PA.
ASSOCIATED CDFNT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z MON WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER. MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. ANOTHER UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUE BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE ERN GRT LKS WED-THU. MUCH
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE T-STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS. MODERATE RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MILES
AND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW IFR/SUBIFR CIGS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO MARINE
AIR IN PLACE. FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VSBYS BELOW
1 MILE POSSIBLE. IFR/SUBIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL IMPROVE...AND IT WILL TURN OUT DRY AND BREEZY THANKS TO A
WESTERLY FLOW.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
MON UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SUNDAY WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO. MINOR FLOODING FOR SENSITIVE AREAS IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANNAPOLIS AND STRAITS POINT.

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BUT ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL LATER MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MSE/LFR
MARINE...BJL/MSE/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301925
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY EVENING AND OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS H85 WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO -SHRA BY
18Z AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH INSTABILITY THAT
COULD KICK T-STORMS AS CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH AND AN INVERSION
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUN NIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILS AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PA. ASSOCIATED CDFNT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z MON WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW
TAKING OVER. MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TUE BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE ERN GRT LKS WED-THU. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING WILL
RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. IFR
MOST OF THE DAY SUN WITH RAIN ENDING BY 18Z. FOG POTENTIAL SUN
NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUN. DRY AND BREEZY MON UNDER
WRLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO RISE SUN
AFTERNOON WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS...SOLOMONS
ISLAND AND STRAITS POINT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/LFR
MARINE...MSE/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301339 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PULLING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN COLD AIR DAMMING WITH A STRONG
INVERSION AND NORTHEAST WINDS EVIDENT ON 12Z IAD RAOB. MORNING
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DRY DUE TO DRY MID-LEVELS BUT FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AFTER
2PM AND LIKELY TO REACH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY 8PM. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS H85 FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ACCUMS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE LKLY WL BE LINGERING RAFL IN THE SRN CNTYS AT THE START OF
SUNDAY...BUT IT/LL BE EXITING TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THTE RDG. THAT SHUD RESULT IN A PD OF DRYING...AND HV
ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THAT BY LWRG OF POPS INTO CHC FOR THE MIDDAY.

SFC LOPRES AND H5 VORT TRACK UP THE OHVLY SUN-SUN NGT. THIS TRACK
WL ENCOURAGE STALLED BNDRY TO LIFT NWD...BUT IT/LL RUN INTO THE
STUBBORN CAD WEDGE. THIS PTTN ALWAYS A CHALLENGE FOR MDLS TO
FCST...AND THE RESULT USUALLY FAVORS PERSISTENCE. AM BEGINNING TO
ACTUALLY SEE THAT REFLECTED IN GDNC...SPCLY IN THE GFS...WHICH
HOLDS ONTO A STBL SFC LYR IN MD THRU THE DAY. BEST H8-5 LAPSE
RATES HOLD OVER THE APLCNS...BUT THERE CUD BE A LTL ELEVATED
INSTBY NE OF THERE.

THE MIDDAY DRYING AND HEATING SHUD PERMIT AFTN SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP.
IN DEFERENCE TO CLIMO...HV PULLED BACK ON THUNDER POTL THIS FCST
CYCLE. STILL SEE ENUF INSTBY/SHEAR SW OF BNDRY FOR TSTMS TO DVLP.
CHALLENGE WL E TO PINPOINT WHERE THAT AREA IS. ATTM WL PAINT IT S
OF CHO-SHD-EKN... FOR LATE IN THE DAY. SPC HAS PEGGED THAT AREA
FOR A MRGL RISK OF SVR. WL HV A THUNDER GRADIENT NEWD FM THERE.
SCHC THUNDER NE OF MRB-DCA WUD ONLY BE FOR A STRAY LATE DAY ELEV
RUMBLE. BEST LIFT WL ACTUALLY BE IN THAT AFOREMENTIONED AREA...ACRS
THE N/NERN CWFA...AGAIN DUE TO UPGLIDE. AFTN POPS WL HOVER IN THE
70-80 PCT RANGE.

SHUD LOSE ANY SFC-BASED INSTBY INSTBY W/ SUNSET...BUT LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR REMAIN DECENT WELL INTO SUN NGT. THE PARENT LOW WL TRACK
TWD NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WL SEND THE CDFNT THRU OVNGT SUN OR MORE
LKLY MON MRNG. POPS GRDLY TAPER OFF THRU THAT PD. QPF POTL STILL
GOOD SUN EVE...AND WL CARRY SHRA W/ MDT RAFL AT THAT TIME. WL
TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. LKLY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY MON AFTN.

TEMPS THIS PD REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS INSOLATION CUD RSLT IN TEMP
SPIKES. SUN MAXT REFLECT THAT GRADIENT ACRS CWFA. BETTER DRYING
AND SUBSIDENT WLY FLOW MON SUGGESTS THAT MON WL BE A WARMER DAY
REGARDLESS OF CFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPSIS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED. THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK FEATURES THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. THE FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NOAM.
MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. IN
TERMS OF THE 00Z RUNS...ECMWF AND GEM OFFER WETTER SOLUTIONS (I.E.
LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST) FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE GFS
IS DRIER. WILL BE CARRYING LOW POPS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AS TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL SPAN ACROSS THE DAY-PARTS OF THE
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT UNLESS THE LOW TRACKS ARE MUCH FURTHER INLAND
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BY THURSDAY...ENERGY DIVING SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AS THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE COASTAL
FRONT...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE THE
EASTERN LOBE OF A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK /
NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. WITH NO REAL SOURCE OF WAA...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR FROM SEEING
SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MIX IN BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDS WL GRDLY IMPRV DURING THE DAY. AM STARTING TO FEEL
CONFIDENT ENUF TO CARVE OUT A PD OF VFR FOR BALT-DC TERMINALS MID-
LT AFTN.

FLGT CONDS WL DROP SAT EVE AS RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. RA MAY BE
MDT TO BRIEFLY HVY SAT NGT INTO ELY SUN. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL BE
WIDESPREAD...AT LEAST IFR IF NOT LIFR.

POOR FLYING CONDS CARRY OVER INTO SUN...THO BREAKS IN THE OVC LKLY
AS BDRY ATTEMPTS TO WIGGLE N OF THE TERMINALS. ONCE AGN XPCT
IMPRVMNT DURING THE DAY AS RAFL HEADS EAST. THAT WL RESULT IN A
RENEWED CHC AT SHRA DURING THE AFTN. CUD BE THUNDER TOO...SPCLY
INVOF CHO. CONDS BECOME MORE STBL TWD THE NE.

CDFNT WL CROSS THE TERMINALS ELY MON...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN W/NWLY
FLOW. MAY STILL HV RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT AM HOPEFUL FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT STALLED
ALONG SE COAST. GFS SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR WHILE OTHER MODELS WOULD
BRING IN SOME PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
LLVLS REMAIN STBL THROUGH THE WKND AS A WEDGE OF HIPRES REMAINS
TRAPPED E OF THE BLURDG. THAT WL RESULT IN MAINLY E FLOW AT 5 TO
10 KT...WITH OCNL PDS CLSR TO 15 KT. WNDS WL VEER A BIT MORE TWD
THE SE AS AN APPCHG WMFNT TRIES TO DISLODGE THE MARINE AMS. ALTHO
WINDS WL BE STRONGER ALOFT...DONT BELIEVE THE STBL LLVLS WL PERMIT
ANY STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE WATERS EDGE. THEREFORE...HV BACKED
AWAY FROM SCA POTL.

LIGHT NW FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND DEPARTED COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SW BY WEDNESDAY BUT GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
AT 10-15 KT. SHOULD A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED COASTAL FRONT...HIGHER WINDS MAY BE REALIZED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN AROUND THREE QUARTERS TO A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES TO HOLD
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THERES ROOM FOR THIS
FORECAST TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNDAY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR/HTS




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