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000
FXUS61 KLWX 190842 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
442 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE MARKER BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT RAIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL VA BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT INITIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS SATURATES.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTRAL BLUE
RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS 6 HR FFG IS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING
INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA
BECOMES WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF
MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
LINEAR FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED OVER TERRAIN
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS THE RAIN SPREADS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...10-20 KT W/
VFR LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY TUE IN CONTINUED WLY FLOW AND
VFR. SWLY FLOW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT-WED...W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
SHOWER/TSTM...HIGHEST PROBABILITY N&W OF BLUE RIDGE WED PM. VFR THU
WLY FLOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS BRINGING N WINDS. WILL LEAVE
SCA IN EFFECT AS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY REACH THE WATERS. AFTER
DAYBREAK EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR BAY/LOWER POTOMAC DUE TO CHANNELING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW STRONG GUSTS MIX
DOWN. BREAK POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMW/S.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WESTERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY...THEN SELY TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AT OUR
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

WASHINGTON DC /REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 84 DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 2014 WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 85.

BALTIMORE MD /BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON THURGOOD MARSHALL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BWI/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES...THE WARMEST
READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER 28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 80.

DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /IAD/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER
28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 82 DEGREES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH
EQUIPMENT...LWX



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190842 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
442 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE MARKER BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT RAIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL VA BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT INITIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS SATURATES.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTRAL BLUE
RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS 6 HR FFG IS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING
INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA
BECOMES WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF
MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
LINEAR FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED OVER TERRAIN
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS THE RAIN SPREADS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...10-20 KT W/
VFR LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY TUE IN CONTINUED WLY FLOW AND
VFR. SWLY FLOW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT-WED...W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
SHOWER/TSTM...HIGHEST PROBABILITY N&W OF BLUE RIDGE WED PM. VFR THU
WLY FLOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS BRINGING N WINDS. WILL LEAVE
SCA IN EFFECT AS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY REACH THE WATERS. AFTER
DAYBREAK EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR BAY/LOWER POTOMAC DUE TO CHANNELING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW STRONG GUSTS MIX
DOWN. BREAK POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMW/S.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WESTERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY...THEN SELY TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AT OUR
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

WASHINGTON DC /REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 84 DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 2014 WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 85.

BALTIMORE MD /BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON THURGOOD MARSHALL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BWI/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES...THE WARMEST
READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER 28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 80.

DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /IAD/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER
28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 82 DEGREES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE MARKER BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT RAIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL VA BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT INITIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS SATURATES.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTRAL BLUE
RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS 6 HR FFG IS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING
INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA BECOME
WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF MUCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR
FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED
OVER TERRAIN AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS THE RAIN SPREADS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...10-20 KT W/
VFR LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY TUE IN CONTINUED WLY FLOW AND
VFR. SWLY FLOW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT-WED...W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
SHOWER/TSTM...HIGHEST PROBABILITY N&W OF BLUE RIDGE WED PM. VFR THU
WLY FLOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS BRINGING N WINDS. WILL LEAVE
SCA IN EFFECT AS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY REACH THE WATERS. AFTER
DAYBREAK EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR BAY/LOWER POTOMAC DUE TO CHANNELING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW STRONG GUSTS MIX
DOWN. BREAK POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMW/S.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WESTERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASE TODAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AT OUR
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

WASHINGTON DC /REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 84 DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 2014 WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 85.

BALTIMORE MD /BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON THURGOOD MARSHALL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BWI/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES...THE WARMEST
READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER 28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 80.

DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /IAD/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER
28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 82 DEGREES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE MARKER BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT RAIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL VA BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT INITIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS SATURATES.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTRAL BLUE
RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS 6 HR FFG IS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING
INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA BECOME
WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF MUCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR
FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED
OVER TERRAIN AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS THE RAIN SPREADS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...10-20 KT W/
VFR LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY TUE IN CONTINUED WLY FLOW AND
VFR. SWLY FLOW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT-WED...W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
SHOWER/TSTM...HIGHEST PROBABILITY N&W OF BLUE RIDGE WED PM. VFR THU
WLY FLOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS BRINGING N WINDS. WILL LEAVE
SCA IN EFFECT AS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY REACH THE WATERS. AFTER
DAYBREAK EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR BAY/LOWER POTOMAC DUE TO CHANNELING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW STRONG GUSTS MIX
DOWN. BREAK POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMW/S.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WESTERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASE TODAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AT OUR
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

WASHINGTON DC /REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 84 DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 2014 WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 85.

BALTIMORE MD /BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON THURGOOD MARSHALL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BWI/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES...THE WARMEST
READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER 28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 80.

DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /IAD/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER
28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 82 DEGREES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH
EQUIPMENT...LWX



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 182100
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
500 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A 1027MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SFC
RIDGE NOSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WV WITH VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 MPH OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY BREEZE WHICH IS
SEVERAL MILES INLAND FROM THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY AND SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 MPH.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ENGLAND. MIXING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE KEEPS TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FOR SERN HALF
OF CWA LOW TO MID 50S AND UPR 40S FOR NWRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY
WEDGE SUNDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD FLOOD WORDING TO THE
HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY TONIGHT THE LATE NIGHT. SCA
FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC 3AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...BAJ/MSE/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 182100
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
500 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A 1027MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SFC
RIDGE NOSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WV WITH VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 MPH OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY BREEZE WHICH IS
SEVERAL MILES INLAND FROM THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY AND SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 MPH.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ENGLAND. MIXING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE KEEPS TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FOR SERN HALF
OF CWA LOW TO MID 50S AND UPR 40S FOR NWRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY
WEDGE SUNDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD FLOOD WORDING TO THE
HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY TONIGHT THE LATE NIGHT. SCA
FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC 3AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...BAJ/MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 181920
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...UNTIL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS LATE MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...1010MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER VERMONT WITH A 1027MB
SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SFC RIDGE NOSES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WV WITH VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER
THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY BREEZE WHICH IS SEVERAL MILES INLAND
FROM THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY AND SUSTAINED AROUND 10 MPH.

SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME RIDGELINE AND BAY BREEZE FRONT CU HAS
BEEN THE STORY SO FAR TODAY. MAX TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP TO LOW 80S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING A RIDGE OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ENGLAND. MIXING...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE KEEPS TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FOR
SERN HALF OF CWA LOW TO MID 50S AND UPR 40S FOR NWRN HALF...PER
MAV/MET/SREF BLEND.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY
WEDGE SUNDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. ENSURED 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. WENT A BIT
ABOVE WPC QPF TO GIVE TWO INCHES FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN
STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR
BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD
FLOOD WORDING TO THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WMFRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLDCVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE AMT
WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY TONIGHT THE LATE NIGHT. SCA
FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC 3AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ/MSE
MARINE...HTS/BAJ/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ
EQUIPMENT...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 181433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN IS REINFORCED
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH FEATURES SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY EXCEEDING 70F IN
SEVERAL PLACES. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN MAX
SUNSHINE SCENARIO.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE GULF OF MAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST
TODAY...INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NLY/NELY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...INCREASING NELY
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR NEED
FOR AN SCA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 6
AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE SCA
WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LEE
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LEE
EQUIPMENT...LWX



000
FXUS61 KLWX 181433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN IS REINFORCED
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH FEATURES SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY EXCEEDING 70F IN
SEVERAL PLACES. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN MAX
SUNSHINE SCENARIO.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE GULF OF MAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST
TODAY...INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NLY/NELY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...INCREASING NELY
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR NEED
FOR AN SCA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 6
AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE SCA
WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LEE
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LEE
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 180800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED MOST
NOTABLY IN THE DEW POINT FIELD. IN CENTRAL VA/SOUTHERN MD WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER...AND RAIN FELL EARLIER...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLEETING OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4
SM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG HAS BEEN LIGHT. AS LONG AS THE
LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A DRIER AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THIS EVENING...AN EFFECTIVE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE
METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VARIABLE VSBY AT CHO. AM NOT SURE IF THEY WILL SETTLE INTO ONE
CATEGORY...BUT IFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND WILL BE HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 10
KT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING WINDS FOR TONIGHT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
CANCELED THE SCA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE
SCA WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE
MARINE...ADS/LEE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED MOST
NOTABLY IN THE DEW POINT FIELD. IN CENTRAL VA/SOUTHERN MD WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER...AND RAIN FELL EARLIER...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLEETING OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4
SM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG HAS BEEN LIGHT. AS LONG AS THE
LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A DRIER AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THIS EVENING...AN EFFECTIVE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE
METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VARIABLE VSBY AT CHO. AM NOT SURE IF THEY WILL SETTLE INTO ONE
CATEGORY...BUT IFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND WILL BE HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 10
KT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING WINDS FOR TONIGHT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
CANCELED THE SCA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE
SCA WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE
MARINE...ADS/LEE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED MOST
NOTABLY IN THE DEW POINT FIELD. IN CENTRAL VA/SOUTHERN MD WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER...AND RAIN FELL EARLIER...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLEETING OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4
SM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG HAS BEEN LIGHT. AS LONG AS THE
LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A DRIER AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THIS EVENING...AN EFFECTIVE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE
METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VARIABLE VSBY AT CHO. AM NOT SURE IF THEY WILL SETTLE INTO ONE
CATEGORY...BUT IFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND WILL BE HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 10
KT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING WINDS FOR TONIGHT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
CANCELED THE SCA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE
SCA WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE
MARINE...ADS/LEE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 180130 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS PUT AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE CNTRL CHES BAY LATE THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOME WEAK LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AFTN ARE SUPPLYING THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT W/ THE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS RELATIVELY SMALL ZONE OF SHOWERS S OF THE
BALT METRO AND SURROUNDING THE ANNAPOLIS AREA. STILL A WARM EVE W/
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
EARLIER THIS AFTN WERE WELL ABOVE AVG...NEARLY 15F ABOVE AVG AT
ALL 3 METRO AIRPORTS W/ A HIGH NEAR 80F.

USED A ECM/ADJMAV BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING THEM
SLIGHTLY ESPC FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EVEN
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. USED THE SAME
BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SAT...BUT ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IN A
LIGHT NLY WIND...WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER BUT W/ AMPLE
SUN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
BL MIXING AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS/PRECIP NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AND CERTAINLY NOT A FACTOR
FOR AREA TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. VFR CONTINUES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180130 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS PUT AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE CNTRL CHES BAY LATE THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOME WEAK LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AFTN ARE SUPPLYING THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT W/ THE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS RELATIVELY SMALL ZONE OF SHOWERS S OF THE
BALT METRO AND SURROUNDING THE ANNAPOLIS AREA. STILL A WARM EVE W/
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
EARLIER THIS AFTN WERE WELL ABOVE AVG...NEARLY 15F ABOVE AVG AT
ALL 3 METRO AIRPORTS W/ A HIGH NEAR 80F.

USED A ECM/ADJMAV BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING THEM
SLIGHTLY ESPC FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EVEN
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. USED THE SAME
BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SAT...BUT ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IN A
LIGHT NLY WIND...WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER BUT W/ AMPLE
SUN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
BL MIXING AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS/PRECIP NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AND CERTAINLY NOT A FACTOR
FOR AREA TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. VFR CONTINUES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180130 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS PUT AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE CNTRL CHES BAY LATE THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOME WEAK LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AFTN ARE SUPPLYING THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT W/ THE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS RELATIVELY SMALL ZONE OF SHOWERS S OF THE
BALT METRO AND SURROUNDING THE ANNAPOLIS AREA. STILL A WARM EVE W/
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
EARLIER THIS AFTN WERE WELL ABOVE AVG...NEARLY 15F ABOVE AVG AT
ALL 3 METRO AIRPORTS W/ A HIGH NEAR 80F.

USED A ECM/ADJMAV BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING THEM
SLIGHTLY ESPC FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EVEN
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. USED THE SAME
BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SAT...BUT ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IN A
LIGHT NLY WIND...WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER BUT W/ AMPLE
SUN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
BL MIXING AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS/PRECIP NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AND CERTAINLY NOT A FACTOR
FOR AREA TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. VFR CONTINUES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180130 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS PUT AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE CNTRL CHES BAY LATE THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOME WEAK LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AFTN ARE SUPPLYING THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT W/ THE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS RELATIVELY SMALL ZONE OF SHOWERS S OF THE
BALT METRO AND SURROUNDING THE ANNAPOLIS AREA. STILL A WARM EVE W/
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
EARLIER THIS AFTN WERE WELL ABOVE AVG...NEARLY 15F ABOVE AVG AT
ALL 3 METRO AIRPORTS W/ A HIGH NEAR 80F.

USED A ECM/ADJMAV BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING THEM
SLIGHTLY ESPC FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EVEN
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. USED THE SAME
BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SAT...BUT ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IN A
LIGHT NLY WIND...WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER BUT W/ AMPLE
SUN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
BL MIXING AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS/PRECIP NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AND CERTAINLY NOT A FACTOR
FOR AREA TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. VFR CONTINUES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 171929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WV...VA AND MD...BUT SO FAR NO TSTMS. FULL SUN
EARLY THIS AFTN OVER THE DC METRO AND MUCH OF VA ENABLED SB CAPE
TO GET UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG...WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT CONTINUES
AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE REACHED WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT
IN THE UPPER 70S.

LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE ISOLATED EVENING
TSTM...ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WEAK
COOL ADVECTION EXPECTED. MAV/MOS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. 40S LIKELY IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR
LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
COOL ADVECTION...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THE
MID-UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM. VFR PREVAILING...BUT TEMPO
MVFR/IFR PSBL FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS TERMINALS.
WINDS TREND TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTN...LESS THAN 10 KT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES OUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. S WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/KCS/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/KCS/MSE
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 171929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WV...VA AND MD...BUT SO FAR NO TSTMS. FULL SUN
EARLY THIS AFTN OVER THE DC METRO AND MUCH OF VA ENABLED SB CAPE
TO GET UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG...WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT CONTINUES
AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE REACHED WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT
IN THE UPPER 70S.

LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE ISOLATED EVENING
TSTM...ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WEAK
COOL ADVECTION EXPECTED. MAV/MOS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. 40S LIKELY IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR
LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
COOL ADVECTION...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THE
MID-UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM. VFR PREVAILING...BUT TEMPO
MVFR/IFR PSBL FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS TERMINALS.
WINDS TREND TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTN...LESS THAN 10 KT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES OUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. S WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/KCS/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/KCS/MSE
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 171929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WV...VA AND MD...BUT SO FAR NO TSTMS. FULL SUN
EARLY THIS AFTN OVER THE DC METRO AND MUCH OF VA ENABLED SB CAPE
TO GET UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG...WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT CONTINUES
AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE REACHED WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT
IN THE UPPER 70S.

LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE ISOLATED EVENING
TSTM...ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WEAK
COOL ADVECTION EXPECTED. MAV/MOS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. 40S LIKELY IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR
LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
COOL ADVECTION...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THE
MID-UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM. VFR PREVAILING...BUT TEMPO
MVFR/IFR PSBL FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS TERMINALS.
WINDS TREND TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTN...LESS THAN 10 KT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES OUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. S WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/KCS/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/KCS/MSE
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 171929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WV...VA AND MD...BUT SO FAR NO TSTMS. FULL SUN
EARLY THIS AFTN OVER THE DC METRO AND MUCH OF VA ENABLED SB CAPE
TO GET UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG...WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT CONTINUES
AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE REACHED WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT
IN THE UPPER 70S.

LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE ISOLATED EVENING
TSTM...ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WEAK
COOL ADVECTION EXPECTED. MAV/MOS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. 40S LIKELY IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR
LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
COOL ADVECTION...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THE
MID-UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM. VFR PREVAILING...BUT TEMPO
MVFR/IFR PSBL FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS TERMINALS.
WINDS TREND TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTN...LESS THAN 10 KT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES OUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. S WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/KCS/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/KCS/MSE
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 171436
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
14Z MSAS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE TROUGH HAS REACHED
WRN PA AND FAR EASTERN OH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN. SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN MD AND
EASTERN WV.

JUST TO THE EAST...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 60S. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE L-M 70S BY AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
WILL DRAW IN COLD DRY AIR ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES
TO INCREASE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SFC TROUGH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTN IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREAS. WARMER
SFC TEMPS AND DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH INTO THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST
SATURDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS INT HE 50S EXPECTED TONIGHT. FULL SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE METROS
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING BUILDS IN
ALOFT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY
SUN MORNING. OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME NE OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF THE PCPN. RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST. BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES ORGANIZED DURING HE DAY AS WELL AS
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...GRADUALLY LIFTING THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AT OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH PCPN
OCCURRING SUN-SUN NIGHT AS A RESULT OF DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE MID LVL SHORTWAVES AND STRENGTHENING LLJ AND 250MB JET.
PWATS INCRSG TO BETWEEN 1.2-1.4 IN...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH PCPN TIMING AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY
MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY. HOW QUICKLY IT
CAN CLEAR THE CWA AND WARM SECTOR THE AREA WILL AFFECT THE EXTENT OF
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHC T
FOR MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND CHC OVER CENTRAL VA WHERE THE BEST
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. KEPT NORTHEASTERN MD OUT OF THE
THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...THINKING THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF PCPN...THE INITIAL
SUN NIGHT...WITH A BREAK AT SOME POINT MONDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PCPN CLEARING TO THE EAST BY EARLY TUES
MORNING.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THRU WED...QUICKLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE BY THURS...AND RESULTING IN
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WX. THE REGION REMAINS POSITIONED AT THE BASE OF
A BROAD UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL SEND THROUGH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MIDWEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ON WLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH NOON. A
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP. AN
ISOLATED TS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY CHO-DCA. IN TERMS OF WINDS...SW
FLOW IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE W THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT-SUN. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BCMG LIKELY BY
SUN NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN COULD DROP
CONDITIONS TO SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON MORNING
WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KTS AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN PSBL DURING THE DAY MON AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER CURRENTLY FOR
THE TAF SITES...MAINLY MON AFTN/EVENING. WIND SHIFT EXPECTED MON
EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF...LASTING THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10KT
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. A SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. S WINDS BECOME W-NW
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT-SUN. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL
BY SUN NIGHT WITH INCRSG ELY FLOW. SCA CONDITIONS LAST DURING THE
DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BCMG SUB-SCA MON EVENING. GUSTS
TO 20 KTS PSBL AGAIN TUES AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/KCS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KCS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/KCS
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/KCS
EQUIPMENT...KCS



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