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000
FXUS61 KLWX 191800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
100 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE HIGH WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR A BKN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK
SHOULD BREAK ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...BUT IT WILL BE TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASS THROUGH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...RESULTING IN
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...FAVORED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.  IT WILL BE A
COLD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DOWNTOWN AREAS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON MAY STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS AS TO WHETHER THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE IT TO THE DELMARVA BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONLY GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT IN THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT ACCORDINGLY. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE
20S FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND A FEW SPOTS ABOVE 30 IN METRO
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PVA MAX IN SOUTHERN FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS REGION MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LIQUID
IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX EARLY MONDAY.

STRONG COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN AREA AFFECTED BY MUCH COLDER AIR
STREAMING INTO REGION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BKN STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT
AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E-NE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/KS
MARINE...BJL/KS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
100 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE HIGH WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR A BKN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK
SHOULD BREAK ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...BUT IT WILL BE TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASS THROUGH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...RESULTING IN
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...FAVORED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.  IT WILL BE A
COLD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DOWNTOWN AREAS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON MAY STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS AS TO WHETHER THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE IT TO THE DELMARVA BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONLY GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT IN THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT ACCORDINGLY. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE
20S FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND A FEW SPOTS ABOVE 30 IN METRO
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PVA MAX IN SOUTHERN FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS REGION MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LIQUID
IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX EARLY MONDAY.

STRONG COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN AREA AFFECTED BY MUCH COLDER AIR
STREAMING INTO REGION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BKN STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT
AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E-NE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/KS
MARINE...BJL/KS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
100 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE HIGH WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR A BKN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK
SHOULD BREAK ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...BUT IT WILL BE TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASS THROUGH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...RESULTING IN
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...FAVORED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.  IT WILL BE A
COLD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DOWNTOWN AREAS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON MAY STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS AS TO WHETHER THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE IT TO THE DELMARVA BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONLY GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT IN THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT ACCORDINGLY. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE
20S FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND A FEW SPOTS ABOVE 30 IN METRO
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PVA MAX IN SOUTHERN FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS REGION MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LIQUID
IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX EARLY MONDAY.

STRONG COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN AREA AFFECTED BY MUCH COLDER AIR
STREAMING INTO REGION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BKN STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT
AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E-NE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/KS
MARINE...BJL/KS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
100 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE HIGH WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR A BKN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK
SHOULD BREAK ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...BUT IT WILL BE TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASS THROUGH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...RESULTING IN
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...FAVORED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.  IT WILL BE A
COLD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DOWNTOWN AREAS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON MAY STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS AS TO WHETHER THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE IT TO THE DELMARVA BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONLY GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT IN THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT ACCORDINGLY. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE
20S FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND A FEW SPOTS ABOVE 30 IN METRO
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PVA MAX IN SOUTHERN FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS REGION MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LIQUID
IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX EARLY MONDAY.

STRONG COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN AREA AFFECTED BY MUCH COLDER AIR
STREAMING INTO REGION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BKN STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT
AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E-NE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/KS
MARINE...BJL/KS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191518
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE
SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

A BKN/OVC STRATOCU DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BECAUSE MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE CLOUD DECK TO HANG AROUND...BUT
THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK
SHOULD BREAK ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL
NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. IN ADDITION...QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIGHT
PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST TIER /HIGHLAND COUNTY TO ALBEMARLE
COUNTY/...OTHERWISE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS. FOLLOWED
BLEND OF SREFS/MAV FOR MAXIMA AND SREFS/MET FOR MINIMA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LEADS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE LIQUID BUT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY THEN THE
EVENT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX.

THIS WOULD EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC
GRIDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...P-TYPE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BKN STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEDGE SETS UP AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS PRECIP.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BJL/BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191518
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE
SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

A BKN/OVC STRATOCU DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BECAUSE MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE CLOUD DECK TO HANG AROUND...BUT
THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK
SHOULD BREAK ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL
NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. IN ADDITION...QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIGHT
PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST TIER /HIGHLAND COUNTY TO ALBEMARLE
COUNTY/...OTHERWISE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS. FOLLOWED
BLEND OF SREFS/MAV FOR MAXIMA AND SREFS/MET FOR MINIMA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LEADS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE LIQUID BUT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY THEN THE
EVENT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX.

THIS WOULD EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC
GRIDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...P-TYPE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BKN STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEDGE SETS UP AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS PRECIP.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BJL/BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER LOW
CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE VORT LOBES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE CO LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND
MID-WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.

A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST. CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS A UPSLOPE
COMPONENT CAUSES ENHANCEMENT. ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING.

SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY RESULTING IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AND CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL
NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. IN ADDITION...QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIGHT
PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST TIER /HIGHLAND COUNTY TO ALBEMARLE
COUNTY/...OTHERWISE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS. FOLLOWED
BLEND OF SREFS/MAV FOR MAXIMA AND SREFS/MET FOR MINIMA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LEADS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE LIQUID BUT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY THEN THE
EVENT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX.

THIS WOULD EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC
GRIDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...P-TYPE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. 10K FT CIGS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED. NW 5-10KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N 5KTS OR LESS.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEDGE SETS UP AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS PRECIP.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER LOW
CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE VORT LOBES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE CO LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND
MID-WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.

A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST. CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS A UPSLOPE
COMPONENT CAUSES ENHANCEMENT. ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING.

SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY RESULTING IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AND CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL
NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE. IN ADDITION...QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ONE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. LIGHT
PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST TIER /HIGHLAND COUNTY TO ALBEMARLE
COUNTY/...OTHERWISE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS. FOLLOWED
BLEND OF SREFS/MAV FOR MAXIMA AND SREFS/MET FOR MINIMA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LEADS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE LIQUID BUT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY THEN THE
EVENT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX.

THIS WOULD EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC
GRIDS WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...P-TYPE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. 10K FT CIGS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND CLEARING IS EXPECTED. NW 5-10KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N 5KTS OR LESS.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEDGE SETS UP AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS PRECIP.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190157
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
857 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONGER LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...994MB SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A 1030MB SFC
HIGH JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (BOUNDARY WATERS). A WEAK UPR
SHORTWAVE LOW IS MOVING EAST FROM WEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT ECHOES HAVE
SPREAD EAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN THE HARRISONBURG
AREA. ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE
500 FT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF FLURRY MENTION
FOR ENTIRE BALTIMORE METRO (WHERE ECHOES ARE ABOVE ABOUT 1200 FT
MSL AT 0148Z).

OTHERWISE...THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 5-10 KT TONIGHT...10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA RETURNS FOR ALL BUT WESTERN TRIBUTARIES FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 18 KT
GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DUAL LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BJL
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190157
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
857 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONGER LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...994MB SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A 1030MB SFC
HIGH JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (BOUNDARY WATERS). A WEAK UPR
SHORTWAVE LOW IS MOVING EAST FROM WEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT ECHOES HAVE
SPREAD EAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN THE HARRISONBURG
AREA. ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE
500 FT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF FLURRY MENTION
FOR ENTIRE BALTIMORE METRO (WHERE ECHOES ARE ABOVE ABOUT 1200 FT
MSL AT 0148Z).

OTHERWISE...THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 5-10 KT TONIGHT...10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA RETURNS FOR ALL BUT WESTERN TRIBUTARIES FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 18 KT
GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DUAL LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BJL
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190157
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
857 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONGER LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...994MB SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A 1030MB SFC
HIGH JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (BOUNDARY WATERS). A WEAK UPR
SHORTWAVE LOW IS MOVING EAST FROM WEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT ECHOES HAVE
SPREAD EAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN THE HARRISONBURG
AREA. ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE
500 FT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF FLURRY MENTION
FOR ENTIRE BALTIMORE METRO (WHERE ECHOES ARE ABOVE ABOUT 1200 FT
MSL AT 0148Z).

OTHERWISE...THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 5-10 KT TONIGHT...10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA RETURNS FOR ALL BUT WESTERN TRIBUTARIES FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 18 KT
GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DUAL LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BJL
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 182016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THEY
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HANG ON
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...THOUGHT IT WAS
WORTHWHILE TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BLANKET OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING TO THE DEW POINTS...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN CIGS NEAR 4KFT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW BUT BECOME LESS
GUSTY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING AS NOT SURE THE GUST WILL
DECREASE TOO QUICKLY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE DAYTIME OF
FRIDAY...WITH A SCA GOING INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS
MARINE...BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 182016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THEY
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HANG ON
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...THOUGHT IT WAS
WORTHWHILE TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BLANKET OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING TO THE DEW POINTS...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN CIGS NEAR 4KFT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW BUT BECOME LESS
GUSTY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING AS NOT SURE THE GUST WILL
DECREASE TOO QUICKLY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE DAYTIME OF
FRIDAY...WITH A SCA GOING INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS
MARINE...BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 182016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THEY
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HANG ON
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...THOUGHT IT WAS
WORTHWHILE TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BLANKET OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING TO THE DEW POINTS...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN CIGS NEAR 4KFT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW BUT BECOME LESS
GUSTY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING AS NOT SURE THE GUST WILL
DECREASE TOO QUICKLY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE DAYTIME OF
FRIDAY...WITH A SCA GOING INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS
MARINE...BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 182016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THEY
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HANG ON
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...THOUGHT IT WAS
WORTHWHILE TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BLANKET OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING TO THE DEW POINTS...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN CIGS NEAR 4KFT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW BUT BECOME LESS
GUSTY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING AS NOT SURE THE GUST WILL
DECREASE TOO QUICKLY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE DAYTIME OF
FRIDAY...WITH A SCA GOING INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS
MARINE...BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181449
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXTEND SE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...WHILE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND HAS
ACTUALLY ADVANCE A BIT BACK TO THE SE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
STILL THINK THIS LAYER CAN AT LEAST BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...BUT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FIZZLING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR
MASS/HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF RADAR DATA
SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS. THERE IS A BETTER LATCHING ONTO THE
NORTHERN AREA SURVIVING ACROSS OHIO...SO WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AS TO WHETHER POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE ADDED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO BECOME MORE
COMMON TOWARD MIDDAY AS THE 20-25 KT SEEN ON THE 12Z KIAD SOUNDING
ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTS GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS
THERE.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN CIGS AT TIMES 040-050 (EXCEPT CHO)
AND WIND GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH BY EVENING.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CALIBER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NW GUSTS 20-25 KT WITH MIXING. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE SCA DROPPING
OFF AT 19Z FOR THE UPPER POTOMAC AND 00Z ELSEWHERE.

GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT CERTAIN
OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED ANTHR
SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181449
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXTEND SE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...WHILE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND HAS
ACTUALLY ADVANCE A BIT BACK TO THE SE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
STILL THINK THIS LAYER CAN AT LEAST BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...BUT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FIZZLING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR
MASS/HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF RADAR DATA
SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS. THERE IS A BETTER LATCHING ONTO THE
NORTHERN AREA SURVIVING ACROSS OHIO...SO WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AS TO WHETHER POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE ADDED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO BECOME MORE
COMMON TOWARD MIDDAY AS THE 20-25 KT SEEN ON THE 12Z KIAD SOUNDING
ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTS GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS
THERE.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN CIGS AT TIMES 040-050 (EXCEPT CHO)
AND WIND GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH BY EVENING.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CALIBER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NW GUSTS 20-25 KT WITH MIXING. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE SCA DROPPING
OFF AT 19Z FOR THE UPPER POTOMAC AND 00Z ELSEWHERE.

GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT CERTAIN
OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED ANTHR
SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 180840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST HAS A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM IT TWD
CWFA. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/STLT/RADAR COMPOSITE IS A S/WV
ENTERING THE LWR OHVLY. FINALLY...THERES A NRN STREAM TROF AXIS...
WHICH COVERS THE UPR OHVLY W/ CLDS. THESE HV SPREAD FM THERE ACRS
NRN CWFA. NAM DOING BEST AT CAPTURING THE LYR OF RH /THO ITS A LTL
TOO LOW IN CLD HGTS/...AND HV USED IT IN POPULATING SKYCVR. THINK WE
MAY STILL HV SOME CLDS AT SUNRISE ACRS MD...BUT THEY SHUD MIX OUT
SOON THEREAFTER AS UPR SUPPORT DEPARTS.

SUBSIDENCE SHUD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS. ATM LOOKS WELL
MIXED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...AND HV NW WNDS UP TO 20 KT. WL BE
COOLER THAN YDA...BUT QSTN IS HOW COOL...SPCLY CONSIDERING THERE WL
BE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND FCST WAS TOO COOL YDA. DID NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW AS NAM DUE TO THAT...BUT DID SHADE FCST DOWNWARD.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS...W/ BKN CIGS 040-050 AND WINDS OCNLY G20KT. CIGS WL
SCATTER OUT ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY NW WINDS WL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
BY MID MRNG...AND SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SPORADIC SCA CALIBER WNDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. THESE WL BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AFTR DAYBREAK. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND HAS IT LINGERING A LTL BIT LONGER. HV XTNDD ADVY FOR
ALL WATERS BY A CPL HRS...AND THE MAIN CHANNEL/LWR PTMC A BIT LONGER
TOO. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT
CERTAIN OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED
ANTHR SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 180840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST HAS A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM IT TWD
CWFA. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/STLT/RADAR COMPOSITE IS A S/WV
ENTERING THE LWR OHVLY. FINALLY...THERES A NRN STREAM TROF AXIS...
WHICH COVERS THE UPR OHVLY W/ CLDS. THESE HV SPREAD FM THERE ACRS
NRN CWFA. NAM DOING BEST AT CAPTURING THE LYR OF RH /THO ITS A LTL
TOO LOW IN CLD HGTS/...AND HV USED IT IN POPULATING SKYCVR. THINK WE
MAY STILL HV SOME CLDS AT SUNRISE ACRS MD...BUT THEY SHUD MIX OUT
SOON THEREAFTER AS UPR SUPPORT DEPARTS.

SUBSIDENCE SHUD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS. ATM LOOKS WELL
MIXED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...AND HV NW WNDS UP TO 20 KT. WL BE
COOLER THAN YDA...BUT QSTN IS HOW COOL...SPCLY CONSIDERING THERE WL
BE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND FCST WAS TOO COOL YDA. DID NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW AS NAM DUE TO THAT...BUT DID SHADE FCST DOWNWARD.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS...W/ BKN CIGS 040-050 AND WINDS OCNLY G20KT. CIGS WL
SCATTER OUT ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY NW WINDS WL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
BY MID MRNG...AND SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SPORADIC SCA CALIBER WNDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. THESE WL BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AFTR DAYBREAK. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND HAS IT LINGERING A LTL BIT LONGER. HV XTNDD ADVY FOR
ALL WATERS BY A CPL HRS...AND THE MAIN CHANNEL/LWR PTMC A BIT LONGER
TOO. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT
CERTAIN OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED
ANTHR SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 180840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST HAS A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM IT TWD
CWFA. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/STLT/RADAR COMPOSITE IS A S/WV
ENTERING THE LWR OHVLY. FINALLY...THERES A NRN STREAM TROF AXIS...
WHICH COVERS THE UPR OHVLY W/ CLDS. THESE HV SPREAD FM THERE ACRS
NRN CWFA. NAM DOING BEST AT CAPTURING THE LYR OF RH /THO ITS A LTL
TOO LOW IN CLD HGTS/...AND HV USED IT IN POPULATING SKYCVR. THINK WE
MAY STILL HV SOME CLDS AT SUNRISE ACRS MD...BUT THEY SHUD MIX OUT
SOON THEREAFTER AS UPR SUPPORT DEPARTS.

SUBSIDENCE SHUD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS. ATM LOOKS WELL
MIXED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...AND HV NW WNDS UP TO 20 KT. WL BE
COOLER THAN YDA...BUT QSTN IS HOW COOL...SPCLY CONSIDERING THERE WL
BE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND FCST WAS TOO COOL YDA. DID NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW AS NAM DUE TO THAT...BUT DID SHADE FCST DOWNWARD.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS...W/ BKN CIGS 040-050 AND WINDS OCNLY G20KT. CIGS WL
SCATTER OUT ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY NW WINDS WL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
BY MID MRNG...AND SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SPORADIC SCA CALIBER WNDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. THESE WL BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AFTR DAYBREAK. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND HAS IT LINGERING A LTL BIT LONGER. HV XTNDD ADVY FOR
ALL WATERS BY A CPL HRS...AND THE MAIN CHANNEL/LWR PTMC A BIT LONGER
TOO. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT
CERTAIN OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED
ANTHR SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 180840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST HAS A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM IT TWD
CWFA. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/STLT/RADAR COMPOSITE IS A S/WV
ENTERING THE LWR OHVLY. FINALLY...THERES A NRN STREAM TROF AXIS...
WHICH COVERS THE UPR OHVLY W/ CLDS. THESE HV SPREAD FM THERE ACRS
NRN CWFA. NAM DOING BEST AT CAPTURING THE LYR OF RH /THO ITS A LTL
TOO LOW IN CLD HGTS/...AND HV USED IT IN POPULATING SKYCVR. THINK WE
MAY STILL HV SOME CLDS AT SUNRISE ACRS MD...BUT THEY SHUD MIX OUT
SOON THEREAFTER AS UPR SUPPORT DEPARTS.

SUBSIDENCE SHUD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS. ATM LOOKS WELL
MIXED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...AND HV NW WNDS UP TO 20 KT. WL BE
COOLER THAN YDA...BUT QSTN IS HOW COOL...SPCLY CONSIDERING THERE WL
BE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND FCST WAS TOO COOL YDA. DID NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW AS NAM DUE TO THAT...BUT DID SHADE FCST DOWNWARD.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS...W/ BKN CIGS 040-050 AND WINDS OCNLY G20KT. CIGS WL
SCATTER OUT ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY NW WINDS WL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
BY MID MRNG...AND SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SPORADIC SCA CALIBER WNDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. THESE WL BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AFTR DAYBREAK. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND HAS IT LINGERING A LTL BIT LONGER. HV XTNDD ADVY FOR
ALL WATERS BY A CPL HRS...AND THE MAIN CHANNEL/LWR PTMC A BIT LONGER
TOO. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT
CERTAIN OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED
ANTHR SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 180222
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT..EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 02Z...999MB SFC LOW OVER SRN NOVA SCOTIA AND 1031MB SFC HIGH
OVER FAR WRN ONTARIO. 4MB SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS
THE CWA...ALLOWING OCCASIONAL 20 MPH NW GUSTS. MIXING PERSISTS
OVER NIGHT...SO MINS LIMITED IN SPITE OF RATHER CLEAR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR ALL BUT SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SUNNY START TO THURSDAY WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW FLAKES FOR THE
ALLEGHENIES...BUT JUST HIGHER CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY
MID 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH IN THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM.
DESPITE A FEW MODELS TRYING TO PRODUCE QPF IN UPSLOPE AREAS...THINK
THE MOISTURE PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S METROS/EAST.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FULLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE
OF A NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LEADING TO WEAK CAA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. SPEED/THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS MAY DETERMINE HOW LOW TEMPS DROP SINCE DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
WITH LIGHT WINDS. TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS/ECMWF RAW TEMPS
WITH LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND TAKE THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IN THE LAST 3 DAYS GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM A
POTENT CLOSED LOW OFF NORFOLK AT 06Z SUNDAY TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
THE CURRENT SOLUTION THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WITH THE
SYSTEM...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SHOULD BE RAIN...AND QPF
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE TEMPS ARE
LOWEST. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE SNOW FLAKES. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
WILL KEEP WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORKWEEK. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
COULD HELP LIFT A STALLED COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY THEN FORM WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OF THE LARGER PARENT LOW AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGH END
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST. EARLY IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT P-TYPE
WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WILL LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY
SEEING RAIN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/POST WARM FRONT...WHEN
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ON
OCCASION TONIGHT AND MORE FREQUENTLY THURSDAY. FLOW WEAKENS A BIT
BUT REMAINS NWLY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NWLY 18 TO 20 KT SURGE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS RETURNING TO SRN MD WATERS EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL HOURS. SCA FOR ALL THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING. NW WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A SCA...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DEPENDING ON THE EFFICIENCY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEB





000
FXUS61 KLWX 180222
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT..EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 02Z...999MB SFC LOW OVER SRN NOVA SCOTIA AND 1031MB SFC HIGH
OVER FAR WRN ONTARIO. 4MB SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS
THE CWA...ALLOWING OCCASIONAL 20 MPH NW GUSTS. MIXING PERSISTS
OVER NIGHT...SO MINS LIMITED IN SPITE OF RATHER CLEAR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR ALL BUT SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SUNNY START TO THURSDAY WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW FLAKES FOR THE
ALLEGHENIES...BUT JUST HIGHER CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY
MID 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH IN THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM.
DESPITE A FEW MODELS TRYING TO PRODUCE QPF IN UPSLOPE AREAS...THINK
THE MOISTURE PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S METROS/EAST.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FULLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE
OF A NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LEADING TO WEAK CAA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. SPEED/THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS MAY DETERMINE HOW LOW TEMPS DROP SINCE DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
WITH LIGHT WINDS. TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS/ECMWF RAW TEMPS
WITH LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND TAKE THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IN THE LAST 3 DAYS GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM A
POTENT CLOSED LOW OFF NORFOLK AT 06Z SUNDAY TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
THE CURRENT SOLUTION THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WITH THE
SYSTEM...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SHOULD BE RAIN...AND QPF
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE TEMPS ARE
LOWEST. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE SNOW FLAKES. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
WILL KEEP WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORKWEEK. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
COULD HELP LIFT A STALLED COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY THEN FORM WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OF THE LARGER PARENT LOW AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGH END
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST. EARLY IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT P-TYPE
WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WILL LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY
SEEING RAIN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/POST WARM FRONT...WHEN
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ON
OCCASION TONIGHT AND MORE FREQUENTLY THURSDAY. FLOW WEAKENS A BIT
BUT REMAINS NWLY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NWLY 18 TO 20 KT SURGE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS RETURNING TO SRN MD WATERS EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL HOURS. SCA FOR ALL THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING. NW WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A SCA...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DEPENDING ON THE EFFICIENCY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEB






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