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000
FXUS61 KLWX 260054 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. RAISED
MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE METRO AREAS AND REMOVED POPS
ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED EXCEPT 50S IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...USHERING IN A DRIER
AIRMASS. DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE TROUGH AND REACH THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE
WATERS SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.
W-NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND
25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE
ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/KRW
MARINE...HAS/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...HAS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251339
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN HIGHER DEWPTS.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AFTER A CHILLY MORNING AND REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER
MID CLOUDS TO MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO
TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S. NW WINDS AROUND 20MPH AND LOW RH`S MAY LEAD
TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT W-SW WINDS 5-10KT THIS AFTN. A
QUICK- MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY
DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE
OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL NOT ACT ON
THIS RIGHT NOW SINCE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP ANOMALIES
FROM RISING QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A HALF FOOT
AT ANNAPOLIS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 250748 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BARELY A DROP OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS ATTM - OUTSIDE OF THE
PAC NW AND FRINGE AREAS OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
JET STREAM IS HANGING JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER BUT WILL
BRIEFLY SWING SOUTH OF THE BORDER TO CARRY THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
FEATURE IS A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER THAT WILL QUICKLY MAKE THE JOURNEY
FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GENERATE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES NRN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THE SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW...NOT ALLOWING IT TO DEVELOP MUCH OF A
MID-LAT CYCLONIC CHARACTER. SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO THE MID-ATLC
REGION.

PLENTY OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE UPPER WAVE BUT IT
WILL BE CONCENTRATED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW...
CREATING A GOOD HEIGHT GRADIENT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY MEAN ANOTHER WINDY DAY FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT AUTUMN AFTN TODAY. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY COOL BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVG VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AND ONLY BECAUSE DRY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE
U30S. AFTER SUNRISE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT REBOUND AS WINDS
TURN MORE SWLY. TEMPS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE 60S BY LATE
MRNG...TOPPING OUT JUST BELOW 70 BY MID AFTN W/ CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY
A STEADY WLY BREEZE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED ADJMAV/MET
TEMPS.

LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER MID CLOUDS TO
MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MODERATE
OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO TEMPS WILL
STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW 10-15KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS THE EVEN THE LAND AREAS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE NW - WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AT LEAST A CHANGING TREND IN STORE TO HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUMP UP WINDS AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT ONLY
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AND OUT OF THE SSW. A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR
ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING
THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 250741
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
341 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS TONIGHT BUT TAKE IT`S BREEZY INFLUENCE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL
THE WATER THIS AFTN. MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXPAND THE SCA FOR THE
LOWEST BAY ZONES BUT WILL MONITOR UPCOMING SCA POTENTIAL.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 250053
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/WV DIGGING ACRS APPALACHIA THIS EVNG. THE H5 TROF AXIS
PROVIDING A PLACE FOR CI TO CONGREGATE-- THESE CLDS HV MVD LTL
SINCE LT AFTN. GDNC SUGGESTING NEARLY SATD UPR LVLS WL SHIFT EWD
BTWN 06-12Z. HV ADJUSTED SKYCOVER AND WL MAKE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TOO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.

FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. HV MADE AN ADDTL UPWD BUMP OF A DEGF OR TWO
BASED ON FRI OBS AND 18Z GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CI DECK CROSSING THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WNDS SUBSIDING...AND HV
ACTUALLY DCPLD AT SVRL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALLOWED THE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 6PM...AND HV CANCELLED THE REST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 242350
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
750 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC MOVES AWAY.

NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO SFC FEATURES. THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ONLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FCST MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CI DECK CROSSING THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WNDS SUBSIDING...AND HV
ACTUALLY DCPLD AT SVRL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALLOWED THE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 6PM...AND HV CANCELLED THE REST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC MOVES AWAY.

NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO SFC FEATURES. THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ONLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FCST MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW WINDS 10-15 KTS G 20KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW-W 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT AS GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THESE SPOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER
PORTIONS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOOKOUT AREA.
NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THIS AREA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
MOVES EASTWARD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

PREV DISCUSSION...
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC
BUT WILL HELP TO USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER
MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET
TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR
ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A
BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO
MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/ NEWER HI-RES WRK
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE CLIMO. OF COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
GUSTY WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-25KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HRS TONIGHT...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241012 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
612 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS NOW -
THAT WAS TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 9AM. GUSTS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ LITTLE...IF ANY DISSIPATION THRU THE
POST-DAWN HRS.

PREV DISC...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE CLIMO. OF COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
GUSTY WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HRS TONIGHT...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 240736
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
336 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOVE CLIMO. OF
COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE GUSTY WINDS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX TEMPS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS TONIGHT BUT TAKE IT`S BREEZY INFLUENCE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL
THE WATER THIS AFTN. MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXPAND THE SCA FOR THE
LOWEST BAY ZONES BUT WILL MONITOR UPCOMING SCA POTENTIAL.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








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