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000
FXUS61 KLWX 090831
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
331 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURES IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE
THROUGH FRIDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS BEING MADE THIS MORNING WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS CONVERGING ON DCRSG POTENTIAL OF THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.
OVERALL...HAVE DROPPED SNOW TOTALS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...REPLACING WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU
THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE REMAINS THE
SAME EXCEPT HAVE CANCELLED FOR DC/ARLINGTON/FAIRFAX AND PRINCE
WILLIAM WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES...
ADVISORY CRITERIA. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AS
WELL...PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW OR EVEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. UPPER LVL
TROUGH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN US THE MAIN PLAYER IN
PCPN DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONE SFC LOW WELL NORTH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A SECOND LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE COAST
OF VA. AS THIS SECOND LOW DEEPENS...PUSHING OFF TO THE NE...
EXPECTING AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MD INTO PA TO
ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR FURTHER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND THE AFTN. WITH THE UPPER LVL
TROUGH IN PLACE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN VA...WHICH
WILL ACT AS THE TRIGGER FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. AS IT MOVES OVER DELMARVA THIS EVENING...THE PCPN AREA
WILL TRANSITION...LEADING TO DRYING OVER CENTRAL VA.

WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THE PCPN LOCATION/TIMING...
THERE IS NOW LESS CONFIDENCE OF THE HIGHER QPF AMTS...AND THE SNOW
POTENTIAL LEADING TO HIGHER SNOW AMTS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
BACKED OFF OF SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS. THE PCPN WAS SLOW TO TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH A
LACK OF HEAVIER BANDS SETTING UP. QPF TOTALS ON THE 00Z RUN ARE
ALSO LOWER. A QUESTION THAT WE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS WAS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING PCPN. WHILE
THERE IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THE LOWEST LAYERS WERE
STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. HAD THERE BEEN HEAVIER PCPN...
HAD THOUGHT WET BULBING WOULD OCCUR...TRANSITIONING TO THE RAIN TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...AND EVEN DEW PTS ARE ABV FREEZING...SUGGESTING IT MAY STILL
BE SOME TIME BEFORE MOST OF THE CWA CHANGES OVER. THINKING THIS
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 10-15Z AS WINDS BECOME MORE NLY...INJECTING
IN LOWER DEW PTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW BOTH WITH THE NAM AND GFS
THAT SOUTHERN MD AND AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT MAY HAVE A SNOWFLAKE OR
TWO...BUT NO ACCUM. MVG NORTH...CULPEPER TO DC AND SOUTH WILL BE
NO MORE THAN AN INCH. THE HIGHEST AMTS ARE STILL THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF MD...TOPPING OFF UNDER 5 INCHES...BUT THESE MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...WITH 3-5 INCHES BEING MORE SPARSE THAN WIDESPREAD. ALSO
TO NOTE...THAT WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...THE SNOW MAY FALL FOR A
GOOD WHILE BEFORE ACTUALLY ACCUMULATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FORECAST AS THE FOCUS
TURNS FROM PCPN THREAT AND MORE INTO THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS. WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW...EXPECTING NW FLOW TO PERSIST THRU THIS
TIME...KEEPING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THRU THURSDAY.
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IS IN EFFECT THRU
THURS WITH BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES PSBL FROM NOW TILL THEN.
OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW...AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS
EAST...ENOUGH ENERGY ALOFT COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SNOW SHOWER ALONG
THE MASON-DIXON...THOUGH WITH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT AND IT MAY END UP BEING MORE JUST FLURRIES.

FOR THE TEMPS...WED WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH THE
FIRST SURGE OF CAA COMING IN DURING THE DAY...DROPPING LOWS WED
NIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BELOW
-10 DEGREES. THE THREAT WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE REINFORCED FRI-SAT BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITHIN
H5 TROF. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE LEADING EDGE WL TRACK NORTH OF THE
AREA FRI...ALLOWING SHSN TO BE CAUGHT IN THE MTNS...FOLLOWED BY A
GREATER PUSH LATE FRI NGT/ELY SAT MRNG. NW WINDS AND SGFNT CAA WL
FOLLOW THAT. LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT MAXT SAT WL BE IN THE TEENS
PTMC HIGHLANDS/20S ELSW. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN THEN...AND WL
ONLY BE AMPLIFIED SAT NGT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS--EVEN
IN THE CITIES OF DC/BALT. SUBZERO TEMPS FCST IN THE MTNS. WL HV A
GRADUAL MODERATING TRENDS BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...PERHAPS
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTL PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
LIGHT RAIN IMPACTING ALL BUT KCHO. AS THE PCPN TRANSITIONS TO ALL
SNOW...EXPECTING CIGS TO BECOME IFR OR LIFR AND VIS TO DIMINISH TO
1SM OR LESS. THE TIME FRAME FOR TRANSITIONING IS STILL LOW-MOD
CONFIDENCE...GENERALLY 11-14Z. SNOW PERSISTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING BACK TO RAIN AT KDCA AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
KIAD/KBWI/KMTN. CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTN WITH THIS
TRANSITION. SNOW AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH KCHO/KDCA...1-3
KIAD/KBWI...AND 2-4 KMRB/KMTN.

THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF COMPLETELY BY TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD
WILL BE NE LESS THAN 10 KTS...BCMG NW AND INCRSG THIS AFTN...WITH
GUSTS PSBL TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WED-THURS.

VFR MOST LKLY FRI-SAT. WINDS SAT CUD GUST NW 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. INCRSG NW
WINDS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WINDS FRIDAY WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE...AS WE/LL BE IN A WK HIPRES RDG
AHD OF ANOTHER TROF AXIS. THAT AXIS/REINFORCING FNT WL CROSS WATERS
BEFORE SAT AM. SCA CONDS XPCTD DURING THE DAY...AND MOST LKLY
LINGERING THRU THE NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS SHOT UP TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE ASTRO NORMALS OVERNIGHT...
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ANY GUIDANCE FORECAST...EXCEPT PERHAPS
CBOFS.  ITS ON PACE TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS AT JUST ABOUT
ALL TIDE SITES ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY.  HAVRE DE GRACE WILL
BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE...BUT CORRELATIONS SUGGEST THAT MINOR FLOODING
SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THERE NEAR EDGEWOOD. THEREFORE...HV EXPANDED
CF ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE SHORELINE.  HAVE ALSO ADDED CHARLES CO TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON/NEAR COBB ISLAND. PINEY POINT AND
ANNAPOLIS MAY EACH COME CLOSE TO MDT /WRNG/ LVL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW THIS AFTN AND
EVENTUALLY WEST TONIGHT.  HOWEVER AM NOT SURE HOW STRONG THEY WILL
BE...AND ITS THEREFORE IN DOUBT WHETHER THEY WILL HAVE A BLOWOUT
EFFECT. IN ADDITION...THE PM TIDE CYCLE IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO EVEN IF THERE IS A PINCH OF RELIEF...IT WILL BE
COMPENSATED.  FOR THAT REASON...HAVE EXTENDED THESE ADVISORIES FOR A
2ND TIDE CYCLE.

LATEST HEC-RAS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MINOR THRESHOLD WILL BE
ACHIEVED AT SW DC/ALEXANDRIA AS WELL. ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE BIG
SLUG WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY UP. WASD2 SEEMS TO BE TRACKING WELL SO
FAR...BUT THERE ARE THE FIRST INDICATIONS AT ALEXANDRIA THAT THE LOW
TIDE WONT BE NEARLY AS LOW AS MODELED. THAT COULD PLAY INTO THE REST
OF THE POTOMAC SHORELINE...WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-502>508.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ011-
     014-016>018-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ027-
     028-030-031-501-504>507.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 090233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND EAST TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WEST OF THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 9PM...1001MB SFC LOW ON N SIDE OF LAKE ERIE WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN TO N-CNTRL NC. UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER NRN IN PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MEANWHILE...DEVELOPED LOW IS SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. 1033MB SFC HIGH IS OVER LABRADOR. SECONDARY SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFF SFC TROUGH OVER SERN VA OVERNIGHT...THEN DEVELOP
FURTHER EAST OFF THE DELMARVA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS
OVER THE AREA.

RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 700 FT HAS SPREAD EAST AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL DROP TO THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE/NEAR FREEZING AT
LOW ELEVATIONS AS PRECIP PIVOTS EAST. 18Z GFS CONTINUES IDEA OF
STRENGTHENING BANDS OF SNOW AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTH JUST A
BIT...SO THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING WITH MORE SNOW
SOUTH OF DC. AS WILL NOTE NEXT...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A WET SNOW
THAT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO STICK TO ROADWAYS.

EXPECT NARROW BANDS OF SNOW ON THE ELY FLOW NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. BEST FEATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGH LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THAT PROMOTES BANDED PRECIP. COMPLICATING THE
SITUATION ARE MARGINAL TEMPS ON THE ELY FLOW. NORMALLY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PROVIDES DRY AIR AND COLDER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND
NOVA SCOTIA LOW...THE HIGH IS SHUNTED ALL THE WAY TO LABRADOR.
WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES...THE SNOW ACCUM WILL BE RATHER
ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH NOTABLY MORE SNOW MERE HUNDREDS OF FEET
HIGHER MSL.

LEFT HEADLINES IN PLACE...EXCEPT FOR ADDING THE NRN BLUE RIDGE
ZONE FOR 2-4 INCHES. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 12
HRS IN LENGTH...OUR 24 SNOW WARNING CRITERIA IS 7 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...4-6 INCHES
WARRANTS AN ADVISORY OVER 24 HRS...NO WARNING EXPANSION AS OF THIS
TIME.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPR TROUGH AXIS
MOVING TO THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NWLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCATION OF THESE BANDS ARE
NOT CERTAIN...BUT 18Z GFS FEATURES TYPICAL NWLY FLOW AREAS ACROSS
MD...WITH A SECONDARY BAND OVER N-CNTRL VA TO THE NRN NECK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE SRN BAND...BUT THIS MAY BE
THE MOST NOTABLE SNOW FOR CULPEPER AND SE. MAX TEMPS HELD BELOW
GUIDANCE PER ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE THE DRYING PROCESS SLOW. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 5-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPREAD OUT AND HAVE
THUS ONLY ISSUED AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE A DEFINED VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE DGZ SUGGEST SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF MORE PRONOUNCED FORCING BECOMES
EVIDENT...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. WITH CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER/NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH CAA KEEPING THE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PSBL BEFORE THIS TROUGH MOVES
AWAY ON SUN... AND SOME SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN ON SUN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON MON BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO OUR CWA.

HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S... THEN IN THE 20S
FOR SAT AND SUN... INCREASING TO THE 20S AND 30S ON MON. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WITH SAT NIGHT BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS... AND BELOW ZERO FOR UPPER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILLS COULD BE
A CONCERN DUE TO GUSTY WINDS... MAINLY ON THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING IFR
OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...THEN INTENSIFY LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE RATHER QUICK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
DCA...WHICH MAY BE THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND MAY NOT
COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER DEPENDING ON INTENSITY. KEPT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BE IN BANDS...SO IT MAY
BE MORE PERIODIC IFR VSBYS IN SNOW. SELY FLOW BECOMES ELY THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NWLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SNOW SHOWER
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOME SNOW SHOWERS PSBL. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND PULLING
AWAY TUESDAY. SELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT BECOMES ELY TONIGHT. THE
STRONG FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND WED NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL THU DUE TO GUSTY WINDS... THEN BECOMING SUB-
SCA ON FRI AS WINDS DECREASE. SOME SNOW SHOWERS PSBL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE RISEN SHARPLY WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND ST
MARYS FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE SITES. CURRENT TREND WOULD WARRANT
MOST OR ALL OF THE MD WRN SHORE AND EXTENSION FOR DC/ALEXANDRIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS SHIFT TO W/NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF BLOWOUT TIDES
LATER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     DCZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MDZ013-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MDZ003-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-014-503-505>508.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     VAZ052>054-501-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     VAZ027-028-030-031-504-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ



000
FXUS61 KLWX 090233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND EAST TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WEST OF THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 9PM...1001MB SFC LOW ON N SIDE OF LAKE ERIE WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN TO N-CNTRL NC. UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER NRN IN PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MEANWHILE...DEVELOPED LOW IS SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. 1033MB SFC HIGH IS OVER LABRADOR. SECONDARY SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFF SFC TROUGH OVER SERN VA OVERNIGHT...THEN DEVELOP
FURTHER EAST OFF THE DELMARVA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS
OVER THE AREA.

RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 700 FT HAS SPREAD EAST AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL DROP TO THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE/NEAR FREEZING AT
LOW ELEVATIONS AS PRECIP PIVOTS EAST. 18Z GFS CONTINUES IDEA OF
STRENGTHENING BANDS OF SNOW AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTH JUST A
BIT...SO THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING WITH MORE SNOW
SOUTH OF DC. AS WILL NOTE NEXT...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A WET SNOW
THAT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO STICK TO ROADWAYS.

EXPECT NARROW BANDS OF SNOW ON THE ELY FLOW NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. BEST FEATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGH LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THAT PROMOTES BANDED PRECIP. COMPLICATING THE
SITUATION ARE MARGINAL TEMPS ON THE ELY FLOW. NORMALLY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PROVIDES DRY AIR AND COLDER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND
NOVA SCOTIA LOW...THE HIGH IS SHUNTED ALL THE WAY TO LABRADOR.
WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES...THE SNOW ACCUM WILL BE RATHER
ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH NOTABLY MORE SNOW MERE HUNDREDS OF FEET
HIGHER MSL.

LEFT HEADLINES IN PLACE...EXCEPT FOR ADDING THE NRN BLUE RIDGE
ZONE FOR 2-4 INCHES. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 12
HRS IN LENGTH...OUR 24 SNOW WARNING CRITERIA IS 7 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...4-6 INCHES
WARRANTS AN ADVISORY OVER 24 HRS...NO WARNING EXPANSION AS OF THIS
TIME.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPR TROUGH AXIS
MOVING TO THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NWLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCATION OF THESE BANDS ARE
NOT CERTAIN...BUT 18Z GFS FEATURES TYPICAL NWLY FLOW AREAS ACROSS
MD...WITH A SECONDARY BAND OVER N-CNTRL VA TO THE NRN NECK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE SRN BAND...BUT THIS MAY BE
THE MOST NOTABLE SNOW FOR CULPEPER AND SE. MAX TEMPS HELD BELOW
GUIDANCE PER ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE THE DRYING PROCESS SLOW. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 5-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPREAD OUT AND HAVE
THUS ONLY ISSUED AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE A DEFINED VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE DGZ SUGGEST SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF MORE PRONOUNCED FORCING BECOMES
EVIDENT...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. WITH CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER/NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH CAA KEEPING THE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PSBL BEFORE THIS TROUGH MOVES
AWAY ON SUN... AND SOME SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN ON SUN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON MON BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO OUR CWA.

HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S... THEN IN THE 20S
FOR SAT AND SUN... INCREASING TO THE 20S AND 30S ON MON. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WITH SAT NIGHT BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS... AND BELOW ZERO FOR UPPER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILLS COULD BE
A CONCERN DUE TO GUSTY WINDS... MAINLY ON THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING IFR
OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...THEN INTENSIFY LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE RATHER QUICK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
DCA...WHICH MAY BE THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND MAY NOT
COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER DEPENDING ON INTENSITY. KEPT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BE IN BANDS...SO IT MAY
BE MORE PERIODIC IFR VSBYS IN SNOW. SELY FLOW BECOMES ELY THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NWLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SNOW SHOWER
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOME SNOW SHOWERS PSBL. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND PULLING
AWAY TUESDAY. SELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT BECOMES ELY TONIGHT. THE
STRONG FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND WED NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL THU DUE TO GUSTY WINDS... THEN BECOMING SUB-
SCA ON FRI AS WINDS DECREASE. SOME SNOW SHOWERS PSBL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE RISEN SHARPLY WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND ST
MARYS FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE SITES. CURRENT TREND WOULD WARRANT
MOST OR ALL OF THE MD WRN SHORE AND EXTENSION FOR DC/ALEXANDRIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS SHIFT TO W/NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF BLOWOUT TIDES
LATER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     DCZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MDZ013-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MDZ003-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-014-503-505>508.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     VAZ052>054-501-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     VAZ027-028-030-031-504-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 082008
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REFORM NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE AWAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX WINTER WX SCENARIO WILL BE UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSFER ENERGY TO A COASTAL
LOW LATER TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK FROM THE LOW
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL MD...WITH WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHERN CWA AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP IS PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER IT
IS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AND WILL BE ENTERING A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS. THEREFORE IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR ANYTHING APPRECIABLE TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND UNTIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING IN MANY AREAS.
PRECIP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT. INITIALLY PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN IN
MANY LOCATIONS...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES SE OF US-29 WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WILL BARELY TOUGH FREEZING IN
THESE AREAS. MODERATE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MD
IN RESPONSE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.

DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS
WILL STAY ACROSS NORTHERN MD. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME BREAKS AT
TIMES...WHICH WILL HELP WITH COMPACTION/SETTLING AND MELTING AS HIGH
TEMPS WILL RISE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. SO OVERALL THIS WILL BE A
PROLONGED EVENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
RAIN AT TIMES SOUTH AND EAST OF DC. MORE THAN 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF BALTIMORE...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA.
NAM/GFS INDICATING A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP SOUTH OF DC FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS HAS ONLY BEEN INCORPORATED IN A BLENDED
SENSE FOR NOW.

IN TERMS OF UNCERTAINTY...THERE ARE STILL A WIDE RANGE OF QPF TOTALS
AND PLACEMENTS...EXPECTED WITH A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
MESOSCALE FEATURES. SFC TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL IN MANY AREAS
(PLENTY COLD ALOFT)...WHICH COULD AFFECT TOTALS. FOR NOW HEADLINES
ARE FOCUSED ON AREAS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE...WITH FURTHER CHANGES
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY TO THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE THE DRYING PROCESS SLOW. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 5-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPREAD OUT AND HAVE
THUS ONLY ISSUED AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE A DEFINED VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE DGZ SUGGEST SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF MORE PRONOUNCED FORCING BECOMES
EVIDENT...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. WITH CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER/NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH CAA KEEPING THE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PSBL BEFORE THIS TROUGH MOVES
AWAY ON SUN... AND SOME SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN ON SUN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON MON BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO OUR CWA.

HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S... THEN IN THE 20S
FOR SAT AND SUN... INCREASING TO THE 20S AND 30S ON MON. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WITH SAT NIGHT BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS... AND BELOW ZERO FOR UPPER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILLS COULD BE
A CONCERN DUE TO GUSTY WINDS... MAINLY ON THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOWERING CIGS INTO THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING IFR LATER
TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...BUT COULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE RATHER QUICK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF DCA...WHICH MAY BE THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND
MAY NOT COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER DEPENDING ON INTENSITY. KEPT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DETAILS EVENTUALLY TO
BE IRONED OUT WITH A MARGINAL RAIN/SNOW EVENT OF VARYING INTENSITY.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SNOW SHOWER
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOME SNOW SHOWERS PSBL. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND PULLING
AWAY TUESDAY. SOME INDICATION THIS EVENING AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR W BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THE
STRONG FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND WED NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL THU DUE TO GUSTY WINDS... THEN BECOMING SUB-
SCA ON FRI AS WINDS DECREASE. SOME SNOW SHOWERS PSBL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE INCREASING AS A SE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WATER LEVELS RISE. THE FOLLOWING CYCLE MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT EXCEEDING MINOR THRESHOLDS AT SENSITIVE SITES.
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE W AND NW LATER TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
BLOWOUT TIDES LATER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ013-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MDZ003-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ052>054-501-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     VAZ027-028-030-031-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR
MARINE...IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 081517
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1017 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTN.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING...WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST SNOW.

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THRU THE AFTN.
ANYTHING MOVING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...AND EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTED SUBSTANTIAL QPF ANYWHERE TODAY. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST HIGHS IN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FOR A PERIOD OR EVEN A BREAK IN THE
PCPN...THEN ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND
IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...LINGERING
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS POTENTIALLY ALL
THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT BE PSBL ON THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRU THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SUBZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL EVENING. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN. MARGINAL
TEMPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MAY LEAD TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE DC AREA...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A GOOD PORTION
OF TUES. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ATTM TO ISSUE A SCA. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND DEEPENS BY TUES NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY... SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS
ACROSS THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/ADS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 081135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
635 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FOR A PERIOD OR EVEN A BREAK IN THE
PCPN...THEN ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND
IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...LINGERING
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS POTENTIALLY ALL
THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT BE PSBL ON THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRU THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SUBZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A GOOD PORTION
OF TUES. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ATTM TO ISSUE A SCA. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND DEEPENS BY TUES NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY... SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 081135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
635 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FOR A PERIOD OR EVEN A BREAK IN THE
PCPN...THEN ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND
IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...LINGERING
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS POTENTIALLY ALL
THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT BE PSBL ON THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRU THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SUBZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A GOOD PORTION
OF TUES. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ATTM TO ISSUE A SCA. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND DEEPENS BY TUES NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY... SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 081135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
635 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FOR A PERIOD OR EVEN A BREAK IN THE
PCPN...THEN ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND
IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...LINGERING
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS POTENTIALLY ALL
THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT BE PSBL ON THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRU THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SUBZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A GOOD PORTION
OF TUES. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ATTM TO ISSUE A SCA. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND DEEPENS BY TUES NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY... SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 080840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT
HAND IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...
LINGERING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL
SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT
BE PSBL ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRUT THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SURZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A
GOOD PORTION OF TUES. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS BY TUES
NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 080840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT
HAND IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...
LINGERING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL
SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT
BE PSBL ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRUT THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SURZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A
GOOD PORTION OF TUES. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS BY TUES
NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 080840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT
HAND IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...
LINGERING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL
SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT
BE PSBL ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRUT THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SURZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A
GOOD PORTION OF TUES. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS BY TUES
NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 080220 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST SHOULD
THIN OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LKS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN VA MON
NIGHT. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP EAST OF UPPER TROF AXIS MON AND SPREAD
QUICKLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ONSET/TIMING OF PRECIP WITH 18Z
GFS/GEFS FASTER THAN 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIP COULD START BEFORE 18Z MON DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. THIS WAS ALL
COORDINATED/COLLABORATED WITH RLX AND PBZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT TO WORK NWD
INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN FCST DETAILS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MON WILL BE FINE
AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. SINCE ANY IMPACTS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL MON NIGHT...WE`LL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES ANY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE SUNSETS MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHEN SNOW
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
TUESDAY IN THE LOW LANDS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SNOWFALL WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE UNLESS BANDING OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS STATED MANY TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND QPF
FIELDS DIFFER IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE BANDING ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE STRONG 925- 850MB EASTERLY JET
ONCE THE SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME LOCATION AND
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INSTABILITY BANDS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS THERMALLY BASED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE COLDER FOR SNOW
SUCH AS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE AND MELT AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL VA
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 1-3 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHER AMTS
ALONG THE RIDGES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE AN OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE I-81 AND I-95
CORRIDORS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SAME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME
REENFORCED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOST
TAF SITES EXCEPT ALL SNOW AT KMRB.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PRECIP RATES MON NIGHT REMAIN IN
QUESTION ATTM.

-SNSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND POTOMAC BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z MON THEN DIMINISH AS DEEP COASTAL LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS ARE UP TO HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTH FLOW BECOMES SELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WATER LEVELS INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE SITES IS LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 080220 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST SHOULD
THIN OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LKS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN VA MON
NIGHT. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP EAST OF UPPER TROF AXIS MON AND SPREAD
QUICKLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ONSET/TIMING OF PRECIP WITH 18Z
GFS/GEFS FASTER THAN 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIP COULD START BEFORE 18Z MON DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. THIS WAS ALL
COORDINATED/COLLABORATED WITH RLX AND PBZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT TO WORK NWD
INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN FCST DETAILS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MON WILL BE FINE
AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. SINCE ANY IMPACTS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL MON NIGHT...WE`LL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES ANY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE SUNSETS MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHEN SNOW
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
TUESDAY IN THE LOW LANDS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SNOWFALL WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE UNLESS BANDING OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS STATED MANY TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND QPF
FIELDS DIFFER IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE BANDING ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE STRONG 925- 850MB EASTERLY JET
ONCE THE SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME LOCATION AND
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INSTABILITY BANDS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS THERMALLY BASED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE COLDER FOR SNOW
SUCH AS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE AND MELT AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL VA
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 1-3 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHER AMTS
ALONG THE RIDGES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE AN OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE I-81 AND I-95
CORRIDORS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SAME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME
REENFORCED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOST
TAF SITES EXCEPT ALL SNOW AT KMRB.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PRECIP RATES MON NIGHT REMAIN IN
QUESTION ATTM.

-SNSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND POTOMAC BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z MON THEN DIMINISH AS DEEP COASTAL LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS ARE UP TO HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTH FLOW BECOMES SELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WATER LEVELS INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE SITES IS LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 080220 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST SHOULD
THIN OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LKS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN VA MON
NIGHT. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP EAST OF UPPER TROF AXIS MON AND SPREAD
QUICKLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ONSET/TIMING OF PRECIP WITH 18Z
GFS/GEFS FASTER THAN 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIP COULD START BEFORE 18Z MON DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. THIS WAS ALL
COORDINATED/COLLABORATED WITH RLX AND PBZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT TO WORK NWD
INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN FCST DETAILS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MON WILL BE FINE
AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. SINCE ANY IMPACTS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL MON NIGHT...WE`LL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES ANY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE SUNSETS MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHEN SNOW
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
TUESDAY IN THE LOW LANDS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SNOWFALL WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE UNLESS BANDING OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS STATED MANY TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND QPF
FIELDS DIFFER IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE BANDING ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE STRONG 925- 850MB EASTERLY JET
ONCE THE SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME LOCATION AND
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INSTABILITY BANDS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS THERMALLY BASED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE COLDER FOR SNOW
SUCH AS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE AND MELT AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL VA
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 1-3 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHER AMTS
ALONG THE RIDGES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE AN OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE I-81 AND I-95
CORRIDORS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SAME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME
REENFORCED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOST
TAF SITES EXCEPT ALL SNOW AT KMRB.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PRECIP RATES MON NIGHT REMAIN IN
QUESTION ATTM.

-SNSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND POTOMAC BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z MON THEN DIMINISH AS DEEP COASTAL LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS ARE UP TO HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTH FLOW BECOMES SELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WATER LEVELS INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE SITES IS LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 071953
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFYS OFF THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND
EVENTUALLY OUT TO SEA. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEFORE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHAINS MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON- EVENING AS SNOW IN THE MTNS AND RAIN
IN THE LOW LANDS. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 40S IN THE LOW LANDS BY
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SUNSETS MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHEN SNOW
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
TUESDAY IN THE LOW LANDS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SNOWFALL WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE UNLESS BANDING OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS STATED MANY TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND QPF
FIELDS DIFFER IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE BANDING ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE STRONG 925- 850MB EASTERLY JET
ONCE THE SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME LOCATION AND
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INSTABILITY BANDS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS THERMALLY BASED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE COLDER FOR SNOW
SUCH AS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE AND MELT AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL VA
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 1-3 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHER AMTS
ALONG THE RIDGES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE AN OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE I-81 AND I-95
CORRIDORS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SAME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME
REENFORCED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AT DCA/BWI/MTN MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT. SN/RA IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SN BY MID-NIGHT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR VSBYS/CIGS. PREVAILING -SN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF
+SN ACROSS MRB/BWI/MTN.

-SNSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS. &&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SCA
IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. WINDS WILL DIMINSH TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO
SEA. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME MARINE HEADLINES
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WEST BECOMING
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO
20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532-533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 071456
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
956 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS MORNING. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NE ONCE
MIXING INITIATES LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED...WITH THE THICKEST
CLOUD COVER MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD. DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A POTENT
TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY INTO A COASTAL LOW LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE LOW OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA.
THESE MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY IN THE VALLEYS SO
ANY PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WILL BE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETUP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO SETUP FROM NEAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND
NORTH AND WEST OVER THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...THEN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY BEFORE REACHING WESTERN MARYLAND.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY
IN...THIS MEANS THAT THE MAIN PTYPE WOULD BE SNOW EXCEPT PERHAPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND RIGHT ALONG THE BAY WHERE WARMER AIR
FROM THE WATERS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. DESPITE THE BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE...THERE ARE STILL SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AND WITH
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS VS. LITTLE OR
NO SNOW OVERHEAD...ANY SLIGHT CHANGE TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

AS OF NOW...THE LATEST FORECAST LEANS TOWARD A CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GUIDANCE WHICH ALLOW FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND PERHAPS INTO THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
AGAIN...WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT WITH THE GRADIENT OVERHEAD ANY
SLIGHT CHANGE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

ANOTHER NOTE IS THAT 700MB-500MB MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAIRLY STEEP...6-8 DEGREES C/KM ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF THE
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY CAUSE HEAVIER BURSTS
OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR ANY
LEFTOVER SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY 12Z WED...00Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
HANDLING OF DEPARTING SFC/COASTAL LOW AND DEPTH OF BROAD UPPER LVL
TROUGH. ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TURNS FROM PCPN
THREATS AND LOOKS MORE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH POTENTIAL WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONCERNS...ESP THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH
WED AND THURS. AXIS OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH THE BASE SETTLED OVER THE CAROLINAS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTHERN MD)
CONTINUES WED DESPITE DRYING AT THE SFC. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS MID WEEK ON THE WNW
FLOW...AMOUNTING TO AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES. ANY SNOW TO THE
EAST WILL GENERALLY AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEGREES CELSIUS WED-THURS...RESULTING IN LOWS
REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WED NIGHT AND HIGHS ON THURS IN THE
20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S...ESP
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WED NIGHT AND STAYING BELOW THRU THURS NIGHT.
THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

BRIEF INCREASE IN TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION...LEADING TO BRIEF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER PLUNGE OF THE
FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL
DETERMINE HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH GOES...AND AS SUCH...HOW EXACTLY COLD
IT GETS THIS COMING WEEKEND. ECMWF THE MUCH COLDER OF THE
SOLUTIONS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. USING THE
00Z SUPERBLEND FOR NOW...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE WITH
TEMPS. EVEN SO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY LVL VALUES LOOK TO BE PSBL
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS DURING
THIS TIME. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. PTYPE OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
GUSTY NW WINDS WED AND THURS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS TO
LESS THAN 12 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC WED THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA ARE PSBL WED...BCMG MORE LIKELY
THURS ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. ALL WATERS DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532-533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




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