Home > Products > State Listing > District of Columbia Data
Latest:
 AFDLWX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 011549
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1049 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

RDR SHOWING LGT RETURNS OVR W.V. BUT NO OBS THERE ARE REPORTING
ANY PCPN. STILL - AS THE ECHOES TRACK INTO WRN MD THERE IS THE
PSBLTY OF SOME LGT SNOW...BUT AM NOT XPCTG ANY ACCUM W/ THIS.

12Z NAM IS IN...GFS JUST BEGINNING...ONE OF THE QSTNS W/ THE
APRCHG SYSTEM IS "HOW COLD IS THE AIR MASS?" NAM SHOWS 850-1000
SUB 130 DM LN FLICKERING ACROSS MD THRU 06Z...THEN PUSHING INTO
PA. IT`S GETTING HARDER FOR ME TO THINK THERE`S GOING TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SNOW WHEN THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN ARRIVES HERE TNGT.
HV RMVD IT FM THE FCST AFTR 03Z. THIS LVS IP AND FZRA AS THE
CONCERNS.

AIR TEMPS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN - WE ARE ALREADY AOA FRZG IN A LARGE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. MESONET OBS STILL SHOWING 31-32 IN CENTRAL
MD...A FEW 29`S ALONG THE MD/PA BRDR. ALTHO CLDS HV GRTLY REDUCED
INSOLATION THE LO LVL SWRLY WINDS WL SURELY HELP TO WARM THE AIR A
FEW DEGS...AND IN MD ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE 35-40 DEG RNG.

WE HV AN ADVSRY IN EFFECT ACROSS XTRM NRN VA...ERN WV..AND CENTRAL
MD. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED TO XPAND UPON THIS. BIGGEST WORRY IS THAT
LOW LYING AREAS WL HV DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT COLD AIR...AS WELL
AS EVAP COOLING THAT COULD OCCUR AT PCPN ONSET WHICH COULD CAUSE
RAIN TO FRZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH  MONDAY/...

WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PCPN.

THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTN. CONTINUED POPS EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE THINKING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING EXCEPT WITH THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SURGE OF CAA WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL SEE THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MORNING. OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE THE CAA MOVES IN...COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN MON EVENING AS CSTL LOW BOMBS OUT OFF CAPE
COD. THE COMBO OF A TIGHTENING P-GRAD AND GOOD MIXING FM CAA WL
EASILY PROVIDE MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT. THIS
GRADIENT WL BE SUBSIDING/DCPLG SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVNG...BUT IT WL
STILL BE A BRZY /AND CHILLY/ NGT. SCT LINGERING UPSLP SHSN AT START
OF PD WL DIMINISH AS HIPRES BLDS. WL HV PT-MOCLDY INTHE MTNS BUT CLR
ELSW. TEMP GDNC NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PRVS RUNS. WL LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LTST DATA. WIND CHILLS NOT TO ADVY LVL...BUT SINGLE
DIGITS SHUD BE COMMON.

HIPRES WL BE NEARBY TUE...W/ RETURN FLOW BGNG TUE NGT. H8 THERMAL
TROF STILL AN INFLUENCE TUE /-10 TO -12C/. MAXT ADJUSTMENTS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A DEGF OR TWO HIER ACRS MD/NRN VA. CENTRL VA THE
ONLY PLACE THAT SAFELY WL GET ABV FRZG. MIN-T TUE NGT WONT BE QUITE
AS HARSH...DUE PARTLY TO A BLDG MID CLD DECK.

LOPRES IN THE NRN STREAM DROPS FM S-CENTRAL CNDA ACRS NEW ENGLAND
WED-WED NGT. ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE ASSOCD W/
IT...BUT FOR THE MID ATLC ITS OUTPACING ANY UPA SUPPORT. THEREFORE
WL BE BANKING ON A SYSTEM THAT WL BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE PCPN ON
ITS OWN. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY WED...WL BE KEEPING SCHC SNW
CONFINED TO THE MTNS WED NGT.

TEMPS WL BE DROPPING THU /15 DEGF COOLER THAN MAXT WED/...WHICH CUD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL SHSN. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
CVRG...BUT IT WUD BE A SITUATION FOR BRIEF...MINIMAL ACCUM /IF
ANY/...BUT SUDDEN ONSET SHSN. WL HV MID-RANGE CLDS AND LOW END POPS.

HIPRES SHUD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING TWD CLIMO...BUT NOT SURE IF WE WL GET
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS DIMINISH AS THE PCPN MOVES
IN...WITH IFR BCMG LIKELY BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN.
INITIAL PCPN -SN/PL/RA MIX...BCMG ALL RAIN TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
TRANSITION TIMING IN TAFS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW MONDAY
AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BY MONDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL MON NGT THRU AT LEAST WED. BIGGEST IMPACT WL BE THE
WINDS MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FM THE NW AND MAY GUST UP TO 35-40 KT
DURING THE EVNG PUSH.

ANOTHER CDFNT WL CROSS LT WED. MAY HV WIDELY SCT SHSN REDUCING VSBY
ON THU...ALONG W/ MORE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN NW FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. PSBL LULL IN THE SCA
GUSTS AS THE WINDS SHIFT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

AS CSTL LOPRES STRENGTHENS LT MON...IT WL INCREASE THE P-GRAD.
COMBINED W/ DEEPENING FVRBL MIXING IN CAA...WINDS SHUD EXHIBIT A
MARKED INCREASE LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WL HV MEAN 35-40 KT W/IN
THE MIXED LYR. HV RAISED GLW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTN INTO THE
EVNG. SCA CONDS WL CONT THEREAFTER...AND MAY LEAK INTO TUE. BLDG
HIPRES WL GRDLY RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     503-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011549
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1049 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

RDR SHOWING LGT RETURNS OVR W.V. BUT NO OBS THERE ARE REPORTING
ANY PCPN. STILL - AS THE ECHOES TRACK INTO WRN MD THERE IS THE
PSBLTY OF SOME LGT SNOW...BUT AM NOT XPCTG ANY ACCUM W/ THIS.

12Z NAM IS IN...GFS JUST BEGINNING...ONE OF THE QSTNS W/ THE
APRCHG SYSTEM IS "HOW COLD IS THE AIR MASS?" NAM SHOWS 850-1000
SUB 130 DM LN FLICKERING ACROSS MD THRU 06Z...THEN PUSHING INTO
PA. IT`S GETTING HARDER FOR ME TO THINK THERE`S GOING TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SNOW WHEN THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN ARRIVES HERE TNGT.
HV RMVD IT FM THE FCST AFTR 03Z. THIS LVS IP AND FZRA AS THE
CONCERNS.

AIR TEMPS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN - WE ARE ALREADY AOA FRZG IN A LARGE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. MESONET OBS STILL SHOWING 31-32 IN CENTRAL
MD...A FEW 29`S ALONG THE MD/PA BRDR. ALTHO CLDS HV GRTLY REDUCED
INSOLATION THE LO LVL SWRLY WINDS WL SURELY HELP TO WARM THE AIR A
FEW DEGS...AND IN MD ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE 35-40 DEG RNG.

WE HV AN ADVSRY IN EFFECT ACROSS XTRM NRN VA...ERN WV..AND CENTRAL
MD. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED TO XPAND UPON THIS. BIGGEST WORRY IS THAT
LOW LYING AREAS WL HV DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT COLD AIR...AS WELL
AS EVAP COOLING THAT COULD OCCUR AT PCPN ONSET WHICH COULD CAUSE
RAIN TO FRZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH  MONDAY/...

WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PCPN.

THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTN. CONTINUED POPS EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE THINKING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING EXCEPT WITH THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SURGE OF CAA WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL SEE THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MORNING. OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE THE CAA MOVES IN...COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN MON EVENING AS CSTL LOW BOMBS OUT OFF CAPE
COD. THE COMBO OF A TIGHTENING P-GRAD AND GOOD MIXING FM CAA WL
EASILY PROVIDE MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT. THIS
GRADIENT WL BE SUBSIDING/DCPLG SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVNG...BUT IT WL
STILL BE A BRZY /AND CHILLY/ NGT. SCT LINGERING UPSLP SHSN AT START
OF PD WL DIMINISH AS HIPRES BLDS. WL HV PT-MOCLDY INTHE MTNS BUT CLR
ELSW. TEMP GDNC NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PRVS RUNS. WL LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LTST DATA. WIND CHILLS NOT TO ADVY LVL...BUT SINGLE
DIGITS SHUD BE COMMON.

HIPRES WL BE NEARBY TUE...W/ RETURN FLOW BGNG TUE NGT. H8 THERMAL
TROF STILL AN INFLUENCE TUE /-10 TO -12C/. MAXT ADJUSTMENTS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A DEGF OR TWO HIER ACRS MD/NRN VA. CENTRL VA THE
ONLY PLACE THAT SAFELY WL GET ABV FRZG. MIN-T TUE NGT WONT BE QUITE
AS HARSH...DUE PARTLY TO A BLDG MID CLD DECK.

LOPRES IN THE NRN STREAM DROPS FM S-CENTRAL CNDA ACRS NEW ENGLAND
WED-WED NGT. ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE ASSOCD W/
IT...BUT FOR THE MID ATLC ITS OUTPACING ANY UPA SUPPORT. THEREFORE
WL BE BANKING ON A SYSTEM THAT WL BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE PCPN ON
ITS OWN. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY WED...WL BE KEEPING SCHC SNW
CONFINED TO THE MTNS WED NGT.

TEMPS WL BE DROPPING THU /15 DEGF COOLER THAN MAXT WED/...WHICH CUD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL SHSN. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
CVRG...BUT IT WUD BE A SITUATION FOR BRIEF...MINIMAL ACCUM /IF
ANY/...BUT SUDDEN ONSET SHSN. WL HV MID-RANGE CLDS AND LOW END POPS.

HIPRES SHUD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING TWD CLIMO...BUT NOT SURE IF WE WL GET
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS DIMINISH AS THE PCPN MOVES
IN...WITH IFR BCMG LIKELY BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN.
INITIAL PCPN -SN/PL/RA MIX...BCMG ALL RAIN TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
TRANSITION TIMING IN TAFS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW MONDAY
AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BY MONDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL MON NGT THRU AT LEAST WED. BIGGEST IMPACT WL BE THE
WINDS MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FM THE NW AND MAY GUST UP TO 35-40 KT
DURING THE EVNG PUSH.

ANOTHER CDFNT WL CROSS LT WED. MAY HV WIDELY SCT SHSN REDUCING VSBY
ON THU...ALONG W/ MORE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN NW FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. PSBL LULL IN THE SCA
GUSTS AS THE WINDS SHIFT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

AS CSTL LOPRES STRENGTHENS LT MON...IT WL INCREASE THE P-GRAD.
COMBINED W/ DEEPENING FVRBL MIXING IN CAA...WINDS SHUD EXHIBIT A
MARKED INCREASE LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WL HV MEAN 35-40 KT W/IN
THE MIXED LYR. HV RAISED GLW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTN INTO THE
EVNG. SCA CONDS WL CONT THEREAFTER...AND MAY LEAK INTO TUE. BLDG
HIPRES WL GRDLY RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     503-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011549
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1049 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

RDR SHOWING LGT RETURNS OVR W.V. BUT NO OBS THERE ARE REPORTING
ANY PCPN. STILL - AS THE ECHOES TRACK INTO WRN MD THERE IS THE
PSBLTY OF SOME LGT SNOW...BUT AM NOT XPCTG ANY ACCUM W/ THIS.

12Z NAM IS IN...GFS JUST BEGINNING...ONE OF THE QSTNS W/ THE
APRCHG SYSTEM IS "HOW COLD IS THE AIR MASS?" NAM SHOWS 850-1000
SUB 130 DM LN FLICKERING ACROSS MD THRU 06Z...THEN PUSHING INTO
PA. IT`S GETTING HARDER FOR ME TO THINK THERE`S GOING TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SNOW WHEN THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN ARRIVES HERE TNGT.
HV RMVD IT FM THE FCST AFTR 03Z. THIS LVS IP AND FZRA AS THE
CONCERNS.

AIR TEMPS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN - WE ARE ALREADY AOA FRZG IN A LARGE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. MESONET OBS STILL SHOWING 31-32 IN CENTRAL
MD...A FEW 29`S ALONG THE MD/PA BRDR. ALTHO CLDS HV GRTLY REDUCED
INSOLATION THE LO LVL SWRLY WINDS WL SURELY HELP TO WARM THE AIR A
FEW DEGS...AND IN MD ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE 35-40 DEG RNG.

WE HV AN ADVSRY IN EFFECT ACROSS XTRM NRN VA...ERN WV..AND CENTRAL
MD. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED TO XPAND UPON THIS. BIGGEST WORRY IS THAT
LOW LYING AREAS WL HV DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT COLD AIR...AS WELL
AS EVAP COOLING THAT COULD OCCUR AT PCPN ONSET WHICH COULD CAUSE
RAIN TO FRZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH  MONDAY/...

WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PCPN.

THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTN. CONTINUED POPS EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE THINKING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING EXCEPT WITH THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SURGE OF CAA WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL SEE THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MORNING. OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE THE CAA MOVES IN...COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN MON EVENING AS CSTL LOW BOMBS OUT OFF CAPE
COD. THE COMBO OF A TIGHTENING P-GRAD AND GOOD MIXING FM CAA WL
EASILY PROVIDE MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT. THIS
GRADIENT WL BE SUBSIDING/DCPLG SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVNG...BUT IT WL
STILL BE A BRZY /AND CHILLY/ NGT. SCT LINGERING UPSLP SHSN AT START
OF PD WL DIMINISH AS HIPRES BLDS. WL HV PT-MOCLDY INTHE MTNS BUT CLR
ELSW. TEMP GDNC NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PRVS RUNS. WL LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LTST DATA. WIND CHILLS NOT TO ADVY LVL...BUT SINGLE
DIGITS SHUD BE COMMON.

HIPRES WL BE NEARBY TUE...W/ RETURN FLOW BGNG TUE NGT. H8 THERMAL
TROF STILL AN INFLUENCE TUE /-10 TO -12C/. MAXT ADJUSTMENTS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A DEGF OR TWO HIER ACRS MD/NRN VA. CENTRL VA THE
ONLY PLACE THAT SAFELY WL GET ABV FRZG. MIN-T TUE NGT WONT BE QUITE
AS HARSH...DUE PARTLY TO A BLDG MID CLD DECK.

LOPRES IN THE NRN STREAM DROPS FM S-CENTRAL CNDA ACRS NEW ENGLAND
WED-WED NGT. ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE ASSOCD W/
IT...BUT FOR THE MID ATLC ITS OUTPACING ANY UPA SUPPORT. THEREFORE
WL BE BANKING ON A SYSTEM THAT WL BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE PCPN ON
ITS OWN. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY WED...WL BE KEEPING SCHC SNW
CONFINED TO THE MTNS WED NGT.

TEMPS WL BE DROPPING THU /15 DEGF COOLER THAN MAXT WED/...WHICH CUD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL SHSN. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
CVRG...BUT IT WUD BE A SITUATION FOR BRIEF...MINIMAL ACCUM /IF
ANY/...BUT SUDDEN ONSET SHSN. WL HV MID-RANGE CLDS AND LOW END POPS.

HIPRES SHUD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING TWD CLIMO...BUT NOT SURE IF WE WL GET
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS DIMINISH AS THE PCPN MOVES
IN...WITH IFR BCMG LIKELY BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN.
INITIAL PCPN -SN/PL/RA MIX...BCMG ALL RAIN TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
TRANSITION TIMING IN TAFS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW MONDAY
AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BY MONDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL MON NGT THRU AT LEAST WED. BIGGEST IMPACT WL BE THE
WINDS MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FM THE NW AND MAY GUST UP TO 35-40 KT
DURING THE EVNG PUSH.

ANOTHER CDFNT WL CROSS LT WED. MAY HV WIDELY SCT SHSN REDUCING VSBY
ON THU...ALONG W/ MORE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN NW FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. PSBL LULL IN THE SCA
GUSTS AS THE WINDS SHIFT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

AS CSTL LOPRES STRENGTHENS LT MON...IT WL INCREASE THE P-GRAD.
COMBINED W/ DEEPENING FVRBL MIXING IN CAA...WINDS SHUD EXHIBIT A
MARKED INCREASE LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WL HV MEAN 35-40 KT W/IN
THE MIXED LYR. HV RAISED GLW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTN INTO THE
EVNG. SCA CONDS WL CONT THEREAFTER...AND MAY LEAK INTO TUE. BLDG
HIPRES WL GRDLY RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     503-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011549
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1049 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

RDR SHOWING LGT RETURNS OVR W.V. BUT NO OBS THERE ARE REPORTING
ANY PCPN. STILL - AS THE ECHOES TRACK INTO WRN MD THERE IS THE
PSBLTY OF SOME LGT SNOW...BUT AM NOT XPCTG ANY ACCUM W/ THIS.

12Z NAM IS IN...GFS JUST BEGINNING...ONE OF THE QSTNS W/ THE
APRCHG SYSTEM IS "HOW COLD IS THE AIR MASS?" NAM SHOWS 850-1000
SUB 130 DM LN FLICKERING ACROSS MD THRU 06Z...THEN PUSHING INTO
PA. IT`S GETTING HARDER FOR ME TO THINK THERE`S GOING TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SNOW WHEN THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN ARRIVES HERE TNGT.
HV RMVD IT FM THE FCST AFTR 03Z. THIS LVS IP AND FZRA AS THE
CONCERNS.

AIR TEMPS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN - WE ARE ALREADY AOA FRZG IN A LARGE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. MESONET OBS STILL SHOWING 31-32 IN CENTRAL
MD...A FEW 29`S ALONG THE MD/PA BRDR. ALTHO CLDS HV GRTLY REDUCED
INSOLATION THE LO LVL SWRLY WINDS WL SURELY HELP TO WARM THE AIR A
FEW DEGS...AND IN MD ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE 35-40 DEG RNG.

WE HV AN ADVSRY IN EFFECT ACROSS XTRM NRN VA...ERN WV..AND CENTRAL
MD. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED TO XPAND UPON THIS. BIGGEST WORRY IS THAT
LOW LYING AREAS WL HV DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT COLD AIR...AS WELL
AS EVAP COOLING THAT COULD OCCUR AT PCPN ONSET WHICH COULD CAUSE
RAIN TO FRZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH  MONDAY/...

WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PCPN.

THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTN. CONTINUED POPS EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE THINKING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING EXCEPT WITH THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SURGE OF CAA WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL SEE THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MORNING. OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE THE CAA MOVES IN...COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN MON EVENING AS CSTL LOW BOMBS OUT OFF CAPE
COD. THE COMBO OF A TIGHTENING P-GRAD AND GOOD MIXING FM CAA WL
EASILY PROVIDE MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT. THIS
GRADIENT WL BE SUBSIDING/DCPLG SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVNG...BUT IT WL
STILL BE A BRZY /AND CHILLY/ NGT. SCT LINGERING UPSLP SHSN AT START
OF PD WL DIMINISH AS HIPRES BLDS. WL HV PT-MOCLDY INTHE MTNS BUT CLR
ELSW. TEMP GDNC NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PRVS RUNS. WL LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LTST DATA. WIND CHILLS NOT TO ADVY LVL...BUT SINGLE
DIGITS SHUD BE COMMON.

HIPRES WL BE NEARBY TUE...W/ RETURN FLOW BGNG TUE NGT. H8 THERMAL
TROF STILL AN INFLUENCE TUE /-10 TO -12C/. MAXT ADJUSTMENTS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A DEGF OR TWO HIER ACRS MD/NRN VA. CENTRL VA THE
ONLY PLACE THAT SAFELY WL GET ABV FRZG. MIN-T TUE NGT WONT BE QUITE
AS HARSH...DUE PARTLY TO A BLDG MID CLD DECK.

LOPRES IN THE NRN STREAM DROPS FM S-CENTRAL CNDA ACRS NEW ENGLAND
WED-WED NGT. ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE ASSOCD W/
IT...BUT FOR THE MID ATLC ITS OUTPACING ANY UPA SUPPORT. THEREFORE
WL BE BANKING ON A SYSTEM THAT WL BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE PCPN ON
ITS OWN. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY WED...WL BE KEEPING SCHC SNW
CONFINED TO THE MTNS WED NGT.

TEMPS WL BE DROPPING THU /15 DEGF COOLER THAN MAXT WED/...WHICH CUD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL SHSN. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
CVRG...BUT IT WUD BE A SITUATION FOR BRIEF...MINIMAL ACCUM /IF
ANY/...BUT SUDDEN ONSET SHSN. WL HV MID-RANGE CLDS AND LOW END POPS.

HIPRES SHUD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING TWD CLIMO...BUT NOT SURE IF WE WL GET
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS DIMINISH AS THE PCPN MOVES
IN...WITH IFR BCMG LIKELY BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN.
INITIAL PCPN -SN/PL/RA MIX...BCMG ALL RAIN TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
TRANSITION TIMING IN TAFS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW MONDAY
AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BY MONDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL MON NGT THRU AT LEAST WED. BIGGEST IMPACT WL BE THE
WINDS MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FM THE NW AND MAY GUST UP TO 35-40 KT
DURING THE EVNG PUSH.

ANOTHER CDFNT WL CROSS LT WED. MAY HV WIDELY SCT SHSN REDUCING VSBY
ON THU...ALONG W/ MORE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN NW FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. PSBL LULL IN THE SCA
GUSTS AS THE WINDS SHIFT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

AS CSTL LOPRES STRENGTHENS LT MON...IT WL INCREASE THE P-GRAD.
COMBINED W/ DEEPENING FVRBL MIXING IN CAA...WINDS SHUD EXHIBIT A
MARKED INCREASE LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WL HV MEAN 35-40 KT W/IN
THE MIXED LYR. HV RAISED GLW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTN INTO THE
EVNG. SCA CONDS WL CONT THEREAFTER...AND MAY LEAK INTO TUE. BLDG
HIPRES WL GRDLY RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     503-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011549
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1049 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

RDR SHOWING LGT RETURNS OVR W.V. BUT NO OBS THERE ARE REPORTING
ANY PCPN. STILL - AS THE ECHOES TRACK INTO WRN MD THERE IS THE
PSBLTY OF SOME LGT SNOW...BUT AM NOT XPCTG ANY ACCUM W/ THIS.

12Z NAM IS IN...GFS JUST BEGINNING...ONE OF THE QSTNS W/ THE
APRCHG SYSTEM IS "HOW COLD IS THE AIR MASS?" NAM SHOWS 850-1000
SUB 130 DM LN FLICKERING ACROSS MD THRU 06Z...THEN PUSHING INTO
PA. IT`S GETTING HARDER FOR ME TO THINK THERE`S GOING TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SNOW WHEN THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN ARRIVES HERE TNGT.
HV RMVD IT FM THE FCST AFTR 03Z. THIS LVS IP AND FZRA AS THE
CONCERNS.

AIR TEMPS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN - WE ARE ALREADY AOA FRZG IN A LARGE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. MESONET OBS STILL SHOWING 31-32 IN CENTRAL
MD...A FEW 29`S ALONG THE MD/PA BRDR. ALTHO CLDS HV GRTLY REDUCED
INSOLATION THE LO LVL SWRLY WINDS WL SURELY HELP TO WARM THE AIR A
FEW DEGS...AND IN MD ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE 35-40 DEG RNG.

WE HV AN ADVSRY IN EFFECT ACROSS XTRM NRN VA...ERN WV..AND CENTRAL
MD. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED TO XPAND UPON THIS. BIGGEST WORRY IS THAT
LOW LYING AREAS WL HV DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT COLD AIR...AS WELL
AS EVAP COOLING THAT COULD OCCUR AT PCPN ONSET WHICH COULD CAUSE
RAIN TO FRZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH  MONDAY/...

WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PCPN.

THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTN. CONTINUED POPS EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE THINKING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING EXCEPT WITH THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SURGE OF CAA WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL SEE THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MORNING. OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE THE CAA MOVES IN...COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN MON EVENING AS CSTL LOW BOMBS OUT OFF CAPE
COD. THE COMBO OF A TIGHTENING P-GRAD AND GOOD MIXING FM CAA WL
EASILY PROVIDE MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT. THIS
GRADIENT WL BE SUBSIDING/DCPLG SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVNG...BUT IT WL
STILL BE A BRZY /AND CHILLY/ NGT. SCT LINGERING UPSLP SHSN AT START
OF PD WL DIMINISH AS HIPRES BLDS. WL HV PT-MOCLDY INTHE MTNS BUT CLR
ELSW. TEMP GDNC NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PRVS RUNS. WL LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LTST DATA. WIND CHILLS NOT TO ADVY LVL...BUT SINGLE
DIGITS SHUD BE COMMON.

HIPRES WL BE NEARBY TUE...W/ RETURN FLOW BGNG TUE NGT. H8 THERMAL
TROF STILL AN INFLUENCE TUE /-10 TO -12C/. MAXT ADJUSTMENTS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A DEGF OR TWO HIER ACRS MD/NRN VA. CENTRL VA THE
ONLY PLACE THAT SAFELY WL GET ABV FRZG. MIN-T TUE NGT WONT BE QUITE
AS HARSH...DUE PARTLY TO A BLDG MID CLD DECK.

LOPRES IN THE NRN STREAM DROPS FM S-CENTRAL CNDA ACRS NEW ENGLAND
WED-WED NGT. ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE ASSOCD W/
IT...BUT FOR THE MID ATLC ITS OUTPACING ANY UPA SUPPORT. THEREFORE
WL BE BANKING ON A SYSTEM THAT WL BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE PCPN ON
ITS OWN. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY WED...WL BE KEEPING SCHC SNW
CONFINED TO THE MTNS WED NGT.

TEMPS WL BE DROPPING THU /15 DEGF COOLER THAN MAXT WED/...WHICH CUD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL SHSN. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
CVRG...BUT IT WUD BE A SITUATION FOR BRIEF...MINIMAL ACCUM /IF
ANY/...BUT SUDDEN ONSET SHSN. WL HV MID-RANGE CLDS AND LOW END POPS.

HIPRES SHUD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING TWD CLIMO...BUT NOT SURE IF WE WL GET
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS DIMINISH AS THE PCPN MOVES
IN...WITH IFR BCMG LIKELY BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN.
INITIAL PCPN -SN/PL/RA MIX...BCMG ALL RAIN TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
TRANSITION TIMING IN TAFS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW MONDAY
AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BY MONDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL MON NGT THRU AT LEAST WED. BIGGEST IMPACT WL BE THE
WINDS MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FM THE NW AND MAY GUST UP TO 35-40 KT
DURING THE EVNG PUSH.

ANOTHER CDFNT WL CROSS LT WED. MAY HV WIDELY SCT SHSN REDUCING VSBY
ON THU...ALONG W/ MORE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN NW FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. PSBL LULL IN THE SCA
GUSTS AS THE WINDS SHIFT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

AS CSTL LOPRES STRENGTHENS LT MON...IT WL INCREASE THE P-GRAD.
COMBINED W/ DEEPENING FVRBL MIXING IN CAA...WINDS SHUD EXHIBIT A
MARKED INCREASE LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WL HV MEAN 35-40 KT W/IN
THE MIXED LYR. HV RAISED GLW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTN INTO THE
EVNG. SCA CONDS WL CONT THEREAFTER...AND MAY LEAK INTO TUE. BLDG
HIPRES WL GRDLY RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     503-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 011549
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1049 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

RDR SHOWING LGT RETURNS OVR W.V. BUT NO OBS THERE ARE REPORTING
ANY PCPN. STILL - AS THE ECHOES TRACK INTO WRN MD THERE IS THE
PSBLTY OF SOME LGT SNOW...BUT AM NOT XPCTG ANY ACCUM W/ THIS.

12Z NAM IS IN...GFS JUST BEGINNING...ONE OF THE QSTNS W/ THE
APRCHG SYSTEM IS "HOW COLD IS THE AIR MASS?" NAM SHOWS 850-1000
SUB 130 DM LN FLICKERING ACROSS MD THRU 06Z...THEN PUSHING INTO
PA. IT`S GETTING HARDER FOR ME TO THINK THERE`S GOING TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SNOW WHEN THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN ARRIVES HERE TNGT.
HV RMVD IT FM THE FCST AFTR 03Z. THIS LVS IP AND FZRA AS THE
CONCERNS.

AIR TEMPS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN - WE ARE ALREADY AOA FRZG IN A LARGE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. MESONET OBS STILL SHOWING 31-32 IN CENTRAL
MD...A FEW 29`S ALONG THE MD/PA BRDR. ALTHO CLDS HV GRTLY REDUCED
INSOLATION THE LO LVL SWRLY WINDS WL SURELY HELP TO WARM THE AIR A
FEW DEGS...AND IN MD ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE 35-40 DEG RNG.

WE HV AN ADVSRY IN EFFECT ACROSS XTRM NRN VA...ERN WV..AND CENTRAL
MD. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED TO XPAND UPON THIS. BIGGEST WORRY IS THAT
LOW LYING AREAS WL HV DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT COLD AIR...AS WELL
AS EVAP COOLING THAT COULD OCCUR AT PCPN ONSET WHICH COULD CAUSE
RAIN TO FRZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH  MONDAY/...

WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PCPN.

THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTN. CONTINUED POPS EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE THINKING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING EXCEPT WITH THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SURGE OF CAA WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL SEE THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MORNING. OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE THE CAA MOVES IN...COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN MON EVENING AS CSTL LOW BOMBS OUT OFF CAPE
COD. THE COMBO OF A TIGHTENING P-GRAD AND GOOD MIXING FM CAA WL
EASILY PROVIDE MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT. THIS
GRADIENT WL BE SUBSIDING/DCPLG SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVNG...BUT IT WL
STILL BE A BRZY /AND CHILLY/ NGT. SCT LINGERING UPSLP SHSN AT START
OF PD WL DIMINISH AS HIPRES BLDS. WL HV PT-MOCLDY INTHE MTNS BUT CLR
ELSW. TEMP GDNC NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PRVS RUNS. WL LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LTST DATA. WIND CHILLS NOT TO ADVY LVL...BUT SINGLE
DIGITS SHUD BE COMMON.

HIPRES WL BE NEARBY TUE...W/ RETURN FLOW BGNG TUE NGT. H8 THERMAL
TROF STILL AN INFLUENCE TUE /-10 TO -12C/. MAXT ADJUSTMENTS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A DEGF OR TWO HIER ACRS MD/NRN VA. CENTRL VA THE
ONLY PLACE THAT SAFELY WL GET ABV FRZG. MIN-T TUE NGT WONT BE QUITE
AS HARSH...DUE PARTLY TO A BLDG MID CLD DECK.

LOPRES IN THE NRN STREAM DROPS FM S-CENTRAL CNDA ACRS NEW ENGLAND
WED-WED NGT. ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE ASSOCD W/
IT...BUT FOR THE MID ATLC ITS OUTPACING ANY UPA SUPPORT. THEREFORE
WL BE BANKING ON A SYSTEM THAT WL BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE PCPN ON
ITS OWN. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY WED...WL BE KEEPING SCHC SNW
CONFINED TO THE MTNS WED NGT.

TEMPS WL BE DROPPING THU /15 DEGF COOLER THAN MAXT WED/...WHICH CUD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL SHSN. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
CVRG...BUT IT WUD BE A SITUATION FOR BRIEF...MINIMAL ACCUM /IF
ANY/...BUT SUDDEN ONSET SHSN. WL HV MID-RANGE CLDS AND LOW END POPS.

HIPRES SHUD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING TWD CLIMO...BUT NOT SURE IF WE WL GET
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS DIMINISH AS THE PCPN MOVES
IN...WITH IFR BCMG LIKELY BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN.
INITIAL PCPN -SN/PL/RA MIX...BCMG ALL RAIN TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
TRANSITION TIMING IN TAFS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW MONDAY
AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BY MONDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL MON NGT THRU AT LEAST WED. BIGGEST IMPACT WL BE THE
WINDS MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FM THE NW AND MAY GUST UP TO 35-40 KT
DURING THE EVNG PUSH.

ANOTHER CDFNT WL CROSS LT WED. MAY HV WIDELY SCT SHSN REDUCING VSBY
ON THU...ALONG W/ MORE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN NW FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. PSBL LULL IN THE SCA
GUSTS AS THE WINDS SHIFT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

AS CSTL LOPRES STRENGTHENS LT MON...IT WL INCREASE THE P-GRAD.
COMBINED W/ DEEPENING FVRBL MIXING IN CAA...WINDS SHUD EXHIBIT A
MARKED INCREASE LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WL HV MEAN 35-40 KT W/IN
THE MIXED LYR. HV RAISED GLW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTN INTO THE
EVNG. SCA CONDS WL CONT THEREAFTER...AND MAY LEAK INTO TUE. BLDG
HIPRES WL GRDLY RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     503-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RETURNS CURRENTLY APPEARING ON RADAR
JUST TO THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...HIGH DEW PT DEPRESSIONS
RIGHT NOW SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION REALLY EXPECTED.

HEADING INTO TODAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ON THE
HANDLING OF THE PCPN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUGGESTION OF PCPN
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WHICH IF IT DOES
OCCUR...WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...AGAIN A VERY
DRY AIRMASS NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP...BUT IS
WEAK...AND WITH THE LLJ NOT IN PLACE TILL TONIGHT...IT COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHC FOR ANY PCPN WOULD BE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF PCPN MOVING IN BY LATE THIS AFTN...AND HAVE
SPREAD POPS EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS FOR P-TYPE...A
GOOD SURGE OF WAA FINALLY ARRIVES WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
WILL WORK TO PUSH BACK THE SNOW/RAIN LINE TO THE NORTH. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SLEET MIXING IN...THINKING MAINLY 20-00Z TIME PERIOD...AS
850MB TEMPS WARM UP QUICKER THAN SFC TEMPS. AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW PSBL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BIGGEST SURGE OF WAA AND MOISTURE RIDING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST TRANSITION PERIOD FOR PCPN...AND ALSO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
OF P-TYPE AS THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE
WARMER AIR CAN ERODE THE PERSISTING COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. USING A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF FZRA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MD...AND SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF DC
METRO...WHERE TEMPS ARE HOVERING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING. CONFIDENCE
WOULD LEAN THAT IF ANYTHING THE TEMPS WARM UP QUICKER...AND THUS A
SHORTER TIME PERIOD OF FZRA. BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF FZRA RESULTING IN A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCORPORATE NW HOWARD...NW MONTGOMERY...WESTERN LOUDOUN...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS
HAMPSHIRE...FREDERICK VA...AND CLARKE. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE
ADVISORY CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUM WILL BE BETWEEN 23-09Z TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...PCPN CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN AS 850MB TEMPS WARM WELL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
WET BULBING FINALLY BEING ACHIEVED BY 06Z. WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
WORKING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN.

THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTN. CONTINUED POPS EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE THINKING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING EXCEPT WITH THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SURGE OF CAA WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL SEE THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MORNING. OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE THE CAA MOVES IN...COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN MON EVENING AS CSTL LOW BOMBS OUT OFF CAPE
COD. THE COMBO OF A TIGHTENING P-GRAD AND GOOD MIXING FM CAA WL
EASILY PROVIDE MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT. THIS
GRADIENT WL BE SUBSIDING/DCPLG SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVNG...BUT IT WL
STILL BE A BRZY /AND CHILLY/ NGT. SCT LINGERING UPSLP SHSN AT START
OF PD WL DIMINISH AS HIPRES BLDS. WL HV PT-MOCLDY INTHE MTNS BUT CLR
ELSW. TEMP GDNC NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PRVS RUNS. WL LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LTST DATA. WIND CHILLS NOT TO ADVY LVL...BUT SINGLE
DIGITS SHUD BE COMMON.

HIPRES WL BE NEARBY TUE...W/ RETURN FLOW BGNG TUE NGT. H8 THERMAL
TROF STILL AN INFLUENCE TUE /-10 TO -12C/. MAXT ADJUSTMENTS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A DEGF OR TWO HIER ACRS MD/NRN VA. CENTRL VA THE
ONLY PLACE THAT SAFELY WL GET ABV FRZG. MIN-T TUE NGT WONT BE QUITE
AS HARSH...DUE PARTLY TO A BLDG MID CLD DECK.

LOPRES IN THE NRN STREAM DROPS FM S-CENTRAL CNDA ACRS NEW ENGLAND
WED-WED NGT. ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE ASSOCD W/
IT...BUT FOR THE MID ATLC ITS OUTPACING ANY UPA SUPPORT. THEREFORE
WL BE BANKING ON A SYSTEM THAT WL BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE PCPN ON
ITS OWN. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY WED...WL BE KEEPING SCHC SNW
CONFINED TO THE MTNS WED NGT.

TEMPS WL BE DROPPING THU /15 DEGF COOLER THAN MAXT WED/...WHICH CUD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL SHSN. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
CVRG...BUT IT WUD BE A SITUATION FOR BRIEF...MINIMAL ACCUM /IF
ANY/...BUT SUDDEN ONSET SHSN. WL HV MID-RANGE CLDS AND LOW END POPS.

HIPRES SHUD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING TWD CLIMO...BUT NOT SURE IF WE WL GET
THERE.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS DIMINISH AS THE PCPN MOVES
IN...WITH IFR BCMG LIKELY BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN.
INITIAL PCPN -SN/PL/RA MIX...BCMG ALL RAIN TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
TRANSITION TIMING IN TAFS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW MONDAY
AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BY MONDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL MON NGT THRU AT LEAST WED. BIGGEST IMPACT WL BE THE
WINDS MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FM THE NW AND MAY GUST UP TO 35-40 KT
DURING THE EVNG PUSH.

ANOTHER CDFNT WL CROSS LT WED. MAY HV WIDELY SCT SHSN REDUCING VSBY
ON THU...ALONG W/ MORE GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN NW FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. PSBL LULL IN THE SCA
GUSTS AS THE WINDS SHIFT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

AS CSTL LOPRES STRENGTHENS LT MON...IT WL INCREASE THE P-GRAD.
COMBINED W/ DEEPENING FVRBL MIXING IN CAA...WINDS SHUD EXHIBIT A
MARKED INCREASE LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WL HV MEAN 35-40 KT W/IN
THE MIXED LYR. HV RAISED GLW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTN INTO THE
EVNG. SCA CONDS WL CONT THEREAFTER...AND MAY LEAK INTO TUE. BLDG
HIPRES WL GRDLY RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ050>053-503-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RETURNS CURRENTLY APPEARING ON RADAR
JUST TO THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...HIGH DEW PT DEPRESSIONS
RIGHT NOW SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION REALLY EXPECTED.

HEADING INTO TODAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ON THE
HANDLING OF THE PCPN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUGGESTION OF PCPN
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WHICH IF IT DOES
OCCUR...WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...AGAIN A VERY
DRY AIRMASS NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP...BUT IS
WEAK...AND WITH THE LLJ NOT IN PLACE TILL TONIGHT...IT COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHC FOR ANY PCPN WOULD BE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF PCPN MOVING IN BY LATE THIS AFTN...AND HAVE
SPREAD POPS EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS FOR P-TYPE...A
GOOD SURGE OF WAA FINALLY ARRIVES WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
WILL WORK TO PUSH BACK THE SNOW/RAIN LINE TO THE NORTH. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SLEET MIXING IN...THINKING MAINLY 20-00Z TIME PERIOD...AS
850MB TEMPS WARM UP QUICKER THAN SFC TEMPS. AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW PSBL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BIGGEST SURGE OF WAA AND MOISTURE RIDING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST TRANSITION PERIOD FOR PCPN...AND ALSO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
OF P-TYPE AS THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE
WARMER AIR CAN ERODE THE PERSISTING COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. USING A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF FZRA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MD...AND SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF DC
METRO...WHERE TEMPS ARE HOVERING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING. CONFIDENCE
WOULD LEAN THAT IF ANYTHING THE TEMPS WARM UP QUICKER...AND THUS A
SHORTER TIME PERIOD OF FZRA. BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF FZRA RESULTING IN A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCORPORATE NW HOWARD...NW MONTGOMERY...WESTERN LOUDOUN...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS
HAMPSHIRE...FREDERICK VA...AND CLARKE. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE
ADVISORY CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUM WILL BE BETWEEN 23-09Z TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...PCPN CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN AS 850MB TEMPS WARM WELL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
WET BULBING FINALLY BEING ACHIEVED BY 06Z. WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
WORKING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PASSES OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC...CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN.

THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTN. CONTINUED POPS EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPERED
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE THINKING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING EXCEPT WITH THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
STRONG SURGE OF CAA WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS
AS THEY WILL SEE THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MORNING. OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE THE CAA MOVES IN...COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN MON EVENING AS CSTL LOW BOMBS OUT OFF CAPE
COD. THE COMBO OF A TIGHTENING P-GRAD AND GOOD MIXING FM CAA WL
EASILY PROVIDE MEAN MIXED LYR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT. THIS
GRADIENT WL BE SUBSIDING/DCPLG SLIGHTLY THRU THE EVNG...BUT IT WL
STILL BE A BRZY /AND CHILLY/ NGT. SCT LINGERING UPSLP SHSN AT START
OF PD WL DIMINISH AS HIPRES BLDS. WL HV PT-MOCLDY INTHE MTNS BUT CLR
ELSW. TEMP GDNC NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PRVS RUNS. WL LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LTST DATA. WIND CHILLS NOT TO ADVY LVL...BUT SINGLE
DIGITS SHUD BE COMMON.

HIPRES WL BE NEARBY TUE...W/ RETURN FLOW BGNG TUE NGT. H8 THERMAL
TROF STILL AN INFLUENCE TUE /-10 TO -12C/. MAXT ADJUSTMENTS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A DEGF OR TWO HIER ACRS MD/NRN VA. CENTRL VA THE
ONLY PLACE THAT SAFELY WL GET ABV FRZG. MIN-T TUE NGT WONT BE QUITE
AS HARSH...DUE PARTLY TO A BLDG MID CLD DECK.

LOPRES IN THE NRN STREAM DROPS FM S-CENTRAL CNDA ACRS NEW ENGLAND
WED-WED NGT. ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE ASSOCD W/
IT...BUT FOR THE MID ATLC ITS OUTPACING ANY UPA SUPPORT. THEREFORE
WL BE BANKING ON A SYSTEM THAT WL BE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE PCPN ON
ITS OWN. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY WED...WL BE KEEPING SCHC SNW
CONFINED TO THE MTNS WED NGT.

TEMPS WL BE DROPPING THU /15 DEGF COOLER THAN MAXT WED/...WHICH CUD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL SHSN. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
CVRG...BUT IT WUD BE A SITUATION FOR BRIEF...MINIMAL ACCUM /IF
ANY/...BUT SUDDEN ONSET SHSN. WL HV MID-RANGE CLDS AND LOW END POPS.

HIPRES SHUD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING TWD CLIMO...BUT NOT SURE IF WE WL GET
THERE.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS DIMINISH AS THE PCPN MOVES
IN...WITH IFR BCMG LIKELY BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN.
INITIAL PCPN -SN/PL/RA MIX...BCMG ALL RAIN TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
TRANSITION TIMING IN TAFS COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS. ANY SNOW ACCUMS AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW MONDAY
AND INCREASE...WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BY MONDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE PCPN EXITS THE REGION.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL MON NGT THRU AT LEAST WED. BIGGEST IMPACT WL BE THE
WINDS MON NGT...WHICH WL BE FM THE NW AND MAY GUST UP TO 35-40 KT
DURING THE EVNG PUSH.

ANOTHER CDFNT WL CROSS LT WED. MAY HV WIDELY SCT SHSN REDUCING VSBY
ON THU...ALONG W/ MORE GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A SCA OVER THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN NW FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTN. PSBL LULL IN THE SCA
GUSTS AS THE WINDS SHIFT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

AS CSTL LOPRES STRENGTHENS LT MON...IT WL INCREASE THE P-GRAD.
COMBINED W/ DEEPENING FVRBL MIXING IN CAA...WINDS SHUD EXHIBIT A
MARKED INCREASE LATE MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WL HV MEAN 35-40 KT W/IN
THE MIXED LYR. HV RAISED GLW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTN INTO THE
EVNG. SCA CONDS WL CONT THEREAFTER...AND MAY LEAK INTO TUE. BLDG
HIPRES WL GRDLY RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ050>053-503-504.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN
NORTHERN MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO
AN END MONDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN
NORTHERN MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO
AN END MONDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN
NORTHERN MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO
AN END MONDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN
NORTHERN MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO
AN END MONDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010230 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010230 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010230 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010230 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010230 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010230 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR N AND W MARYLAND SUN-MON...

NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
OVERNIGHT. READINGS AS OF 02Z HAVE ALREADY DIPPED BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A LITTLE
FURTHER UNTIL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECTING OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AT THE ONSET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM WASHINGTON DC AND POINTS SOUTH BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FAR N AND W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC
WILL HOLD ONTO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LONGER. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL FROM SNOW AND ICY
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE COLDER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE METRO AREAS AND
POINTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS OVERNIGHT...PSBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR DURG
DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A CHC OF R/IP DURG
THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMRB. COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND
IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITIERIA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ004>006-507.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ051-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/KRW/ABW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 312003
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA THIS EVE WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS WINDS BECOME LGT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S...AND THEN
CLDS SHOULD OVRSPEAD THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRES WHICH WL BE MOVING
INTO THE MID-MS VLLY. IT IS PSBL THAT TOWARD DAYBRK A BRIEF PD OF
LGT SN A COUPLE FORM OVR THE NRN VA TO THE M-D LN...BUT THIS IS
NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE ANY ACCUMULATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

THE SUN/SUN NGT PART OF THE FCST HAS PROVED CHALLENING OVR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AFTR THAT BRF ERLY MRNG SN IT IS PSBL THAT A LARGE
PORTION OF THE DAY WL BE DRY E OF THE MTNS...HOWEVER WL HV CHC
POPS FOR RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY...WINTRY MIX IN THE DC/BALT
AREA. FURTHER W POPS ARE HIGHER. LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL DURG THE AFTN
IN WRN MD/PORTIONS OF ERN W.V.

HIGHS SUN RANGING FM M40S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY TO THE LM30S
ALONG THE PA BRDR. DC PROPER SHOULD REACH THE L40S...DOWNTOWN BALT U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS LATE TNGT...PSBLY DROPPING
INTO LIFR DURG DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A
CHC OF R/IP DURG THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP-TYPE IS AT MRB/IAD/BWI. COLD
FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES
STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS CONT TO GUST TO A20 KT...SCA IN EFFECT THRU 6 PM. NO PROBS
ON THE WATERS OVRNGT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 312003
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA THIS EVE WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS WINDS BECOME LGT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S...AND THEN
CLDS SHOULD OVRSPEAD THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRES WHICH WL BE MOVING
INTO THE MID-MS VLLY. IT IS PSBL THAT TOWARD DAYBRK A BRIEF PD OF
LGT SN A COUPLE FORM OVR THE NRN VA TO THE M-D LN...BUT THIS IS
NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE ANY ACCUMULATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

THE SUN/SUN NGT PART OF THE FCST HAS PROVED CHALLENING OVR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AFTR THAT BRF ERLY MRNG SN IT IS PSBL THAT A LARGE
PORTION OF THE DAY WL BE DRY E OF THE MTNS...HOWEVER WL HV CHC
POPS FOR RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY...WINTRY MIX IN THE DC/BALT
AREA. FURTHER W POPS ARE HIGHER. LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL DURG THE AFTN
IN WRN MD/PORTIONS OF ERN W.V.

HIGHS SUN RANGING FM M40S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY TO THE LM30S
ALONG THE PA BRDR. DC PROPER SHOULD REACH THE L40S...DOWNTOWN BALT U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS LATE TNGT...PSBLY DROPPING
INTO LIFR DURG DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A
CHC OF R/IP DURG THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP-TYPE IS AT MRB/IAD/BWI. COLD
FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES
STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS CONT TO GUST TO A20 KT...SCA IN EFFECT THRU 6 PM. NO PROBS
ON THE WATERS OVRNGT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 312003
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA THIS EVE WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS WINDS BECOME LGT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S...AND THEN
CLDS SHOULD OVRSPEAD THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRES WHICH WL BE MOVING
INTO THE MID-MS VLLY. IT IS PSBL THAT TOWARD DAYBRK A BRIEF PD OF
LGT SN A COUPLE FORM OVR THE NRN VA TO THE M-D LN...BUT THIS IS
NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE ANY ACCUMULATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

THE SUN/SUN NGT PART OF THE FCST HAS PROVED CHALLENING OVR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AFTR THAT BRF ERLY MRNG SN IT IS PSBL THAT A LARGE
PORTION OF THE DAY WL BE DRY E OF THE MTNS...HOWEVER WL HV CHC
POPS FOR RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY...WINTRY MIX IN THE DC/BALT
AREA. FURTHER W POPS ARE HIGHER. LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL DURG THE AFTN
IN WRN MD/PORTIONS OF ERN W.V.

HIGHS SUN RANGING FM M40S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY TO THE LM30S
ALONG THE PA BRDR. DC PROPER SHOULD REACH THE L40S...DOWNTOWN BALT U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS LATE TNGT...PSBLY DROPPING
INTO LIFR DURG DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A
CHC OF R/IP DURG THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP-TYPE IS AT MRB/IAD/BWI. COLD
FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES
STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS CONT TO GUST TO A20 KT...SCA IN EFFECT THRU 6 PM. NO PROBS
ON THE WATERS OVRNGT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 312003
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA THIS EVE WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS WINDS BECOME LGT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S...AND THEN
CLDS SHOULD OVRSPEAD THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRES WHICH WL BE MOVING
INTO THE MID-MS VLLY. IT IS PSBL THAT TOWARD DAYBRK A BRIEF PD OF
LGT SN A COUPLE FORM OVR THE NRN VA TO THE M-D LN...BUT THIS IS
NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE ANY ACCUMULATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

THE SUN/SUN NGT PART OF THE FCST HAS PROVED CHALLENING OVR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AFTR THAT BRF ERLY MRNG SN IT IS PSBL THAT A LARGE
PORTION OF THE DAY WL BE DRY E OF THE MTNS...HOWEVER WL HV CHC
POPS FOR RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY...WINTRY MIX IN THE DC/BALT
AREA. FURTHER W POPS ARE HIGHER. LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL DURG THE AFTN
IN WRN MD/PORTIONS OF ERN W.V.

HIGHS SUN RANGING FM M40S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY TO THE LM30S
ALONG THE PA BRDR. DC PROPER SHOULD REACH THE L40S...DOWNTOWN BALT U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BEST
SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGIN INTERACTING.
CONSENSUS TRACK LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS IN THE SUITE. RELIED ON
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AS THEIR THERMAL FIELDS ALLOW A
STAIR STEP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE M-D LINE.

LLJ WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL DRAW COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WARMTH.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO THE SFC. W-E LOW
TRACK AND LACK OF CAD HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LOCKING COLD AIR IN...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND IN-SITU PROCESSES MAY
MAKE IT HARD TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT. A MIX
OF PRECIP IN THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE LIQUID WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS...AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATIONS HOW PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES RESPOND. CERTAINLY AN AREA OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING NOW SCALED BACK TO 1-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH...AND THIS COULD STILL BE GENEROUS DEPENDING ON
THE LOW TRACK. ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS.

FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LOW MONDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THINK FOR THE MOST PART DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN NORTHERN
MD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A
LITTLE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TAKE ANOTHER PLUNGE TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS LATE TNGT...PSBLY DROPPING
INTO LIFR DURG DAY. LGT SN PSBL ARND 12Z IAD/DCA AND N...THEN A
CHC OF R/IP DURG THE AFTN.

IFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA. MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP-TYPE IS AT MRB/IAD/BWI. COLD
FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING AND IMPROVES CONDITIONS BUT INTRODUCES
STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
DIMINISHING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS S
BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS CONT TO GUST TO A20 KT...SCA IN EFFECT THRU 6 PM. NO PROBS
ON THE WATERS OVRNGT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WATERS. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAY
BE IN THE GALE CATEGORY. WINDS DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

HIGH PRES WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND...WITH MANY AREAS REACHING NEAR 30
TODAY...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 30S OVER CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH NUDGES EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW OVER KY BY 00Z MONDAY. DRY WX IN PLACE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR THE SECOND HALF AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS GENERALLY
EXPECTING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE GRADUAL
TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

INTRODUCED POPS INTO THE FAR NW AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE LIFT
PUSHES NORTH...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO PA...SPREAD THE POPS TO THE EAST...MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUM
PSBL.

FOR THE AFTN...PCPN SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH...WITH ONLY SOUTHERN MD
POSSIBLY STAYING DRY TILL SUN EVENING. P-TYPE FOR THE AFTN REMAINS
TRICKY AS THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW NOW BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 18Z SUN...AND RIGHT NEAR FREEZING BY
00Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING PCPN UP TO 18Z
AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT SNEAKING IN...COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN...MAINLY OVER VA...AND EVEN POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. THE ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT WITH SFC TEMPS PUSHING ABV FREEZING AS WAA SETS UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. AREAS JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE METRO COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
JUST HIT FREEZING...BUT WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS THERE...GENERALLY
SHOULD EXPECT SNOW AND NOT FZRA THRU 00Z MONDAY. FOR AREAS THAT
REMAIN ALL SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW FOR SUN AFTN...COULD SEE UP TO ONE
INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FM THE MID OH VLY TO THE NRN SXNS OF
THE CWFA SUN NGT. THIS SOLN ON THE SAME PAGE AS THE PAST DAY OR SO
OF FCST RUNS...AND REPRESENTS THE MORE NRN TRACK. THE H8 LOW ALSO
A LTL FURTHER N...INTO CENTRL PA. GIVEN THIS SOLN...THERE WL BE
NOTHING TO IMPEDE WARM AIR ALOFT FM OVERSPREADING CWFA.
THEREFORE...XPCT MELTING OF SOME IF NOT ALL HYDROMETEORS. THE KEY
WL BE SFC TEMPS. THATS PROVING A BIT TRICKIER...NOT IN THE OVERALL
TREND /WHICH WL BE NON-DIURNAL WARMING/ BUT IN PEGGING SPECIFICS
WRT SFC FRZG. AM NOT CONVINCED WE/LL BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ALL COLD
AIR IN THE VLYS. AREA OF CONCERN STRETCHES ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS...AND INCLUDES THE BALT NRN BURBS/FREDERICK/I-81 N
OF OKV. HV HELD ONTO PTYPE OF ZR/S IN THESE AREAS...W/ A CHGOVER
TO RA S OF THERE. AM A BIT UNCERTAIN ABT LCL TEMPS FOR AN ADDTL
SLIVER INCL HOWARD/MONTGOMERY/LOUDOUN CNTYS...BUT DONT HV ENOUGH
HARD EVIDENCE TO PREVENT A FCSTD WARM-UP OVNGT.

POPS WL BE AT THEIR HIEST OVNGT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS NEARBY...FLLWD
BY A RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED CFP DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. TEMPS SHUD
BE STDY/FALLING MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERED A PINCH BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING IN NWLY FLOW. DUE TO THAT OFFSET...SHUD BE ABLE TO GET PCPN
AWAY FM DC BEFORE THERMAL CONDS SUPPORT SNOW. ELSW...WL BE SWITCHING
BACK TO A RA/SNW MODE AS CAA ALOFT WL BRING TEMPS BELOW FRZG ABV THE
SFC. WL ALSO HV THE RETURN OF UPSLP SHSN...BUT AT THIS POINT AM
KEEPING ONLY MINIMAL ADDTL ACCUMS.

DO NOT SEE SGFNT SNOW AMTS W/IN CWFA BASED ON CURRENT STORM
TRACK. HELD NRN MD/PTMC HIGHLANDS HIER THAN LTST RAW GDNC WUD
SUGGEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FINAL TALLIES WUD BE BELOW
WATCH/WRNG VALUES. SINCE FCST ERRING ON THE HIGH SIDE AND THAT
DOESNT MEET WATCH CRITERIA...WL BE CONTG HWO MENTION ONLY.

CWFA WL HV A CPL DAYS UNDER HIPRES. MON NGT-TUE WL BE ABNORMALLY
COLD THO...AS H8 TEMPS BTTM OUT ARND -12C IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEEPING CSTL LOW. LTST MOS GDNC A TOUCH WARMER FOR MON NGT MIN-T.
THIS STILL SUGGESTS A LARGE SWATH OF CWFA /NRN MD AND W OF BLURDG/
WL START TUE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ALL BUT CENTRL VA WL BE
STUGGLING TO RISE ABV FRZG TUE. RETURN FLOW WL REACH AREA TUE NGT
THO...FOR A CONSIDERABLY WARMER WED.

THERE MAY BE A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM DROPPING SWD FM THE
NRN STREAM WED...WHICH CUD BE THE FOCUS FOR RIPPLES FM EWD THRU THE
END OF THE WK. HV KEPT SOME CLDCVR TO ACCOMPANY FNT...BUT REMOVED
PCPN. SIMILARLY...PRIND SUGGEST THE FNT WUD THEN SET UP FAR ENUF
AWAY FM /IE...SE OF/ CWFA THU-FRI. THREAT OF PCPN LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

S FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS SUN. PCPN COULD IMPACT KMRB AS
EARLY AS 15Z...AS -SN...WITH PCPN BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE AFTN AT
ALL TERMINALS. -RA/PL FOR KCHO...-SN/PL ELSEWHERE. ANY SNOW ACCUMS
PRIOR TO 00Z MON WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

IFR CONDS LKLY SUN NGT AS LOPRES TRACKS ACRS AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE
LIKE A COLD RAIN FOR CHO/DCA. PTYPE AT BWI/IAD A LTL MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT RA SHUD DOMINATE. MRB STANDS BEST CHC AT RECEIVING
WINTRY PCPN. CFP DURING MRNG PUSH. WL BE EXPERIENCING STRONG NWLY
FLOW MOST OF THE DAY.

VFR XPCTD MON NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU 23Z. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.

LOPRES WL TRACK JUST BARELY N OF THE WATERS LT SUN NGT...FLLWD BY
CFP MON MRNG. WINDS WL PICK UP ON MON. MIXED LYR WL EASILY SUPPORT
SCA...AND MAY EVEN SUPPORT THE RETURN OF GLW. WL ADD THAT POTL TO
SYN AND HWO. XPCT A GRDL DECREASE OF WINDS MON NGT. TUE AND WED
SHUD BE QUIETER AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 311758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

HIGH PRES WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND...WITH MANY AREAS REACHING NEAR 30
TODAY...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 30S OVER CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH NUDGES EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW OVER KY BY 00Z MONDAY. DRY WX IN PLACE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR THE SECOND HALF AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS GENERALLY
EXPECTING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE GRADUAL
TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

INTRODUCED POPS INTO THE FAR NW AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE LIFT
PUSHES NORTH...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO PA...SPREAD THE POPS TO THE EAST...MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUM
PSBL.

FOR THE AFTN...PCPN SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH...WITH ONLY SOUTHERN MD
POSSIBLY STAYING DRY TILL SUN EVENING. P-TYPE FOR THE AFTN REMAINS
TRICKY AS THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW NOW BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 18Z SUN...AND RIGHT NEAR FREEZING BY
00Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING PCPN UP TO 18Z
AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT SNEAKING IN...COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN...MAINLY OVER VA...AND EVEN POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. THE ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT WITH SFC TEMPS PUSHING ABV FREEZING AS WAA SETS UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. AREAS JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE METRO COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
JUST HIT FREEZING...BUT WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS THERE...GENERALLY
SHOULD EXPECT SNOW AND NOT FZRA THRU 00Z MONDAY. FOR AREAS THAT
REMAIN ALL SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW FOR SUN AFTN...COULD SEE UP TO ONE
INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FM THE MID OH VLY TO THE NRN SXNS OF
THE CWFA SUN NGT. THIS SOLN ON THE SAME PAGE AS THE PAST DAY OR SO
OF FCST RUNS...AND REPRESENTS THE MORE NRN TRACK. THE H8 LOW ALSO
A LTL FURTHER N...INTO CENTRL PA. GIVEN THIS SOLN...THERE WL BE
NOTHING TO IMPEDE WARM AIR ALOFT FM OVERSPREADING CWFA.
THEREFORE...XPCT MELTING OF SOME IF NOT ALL HYDROMETEORS. THE KEY
WL BE SFC TEMPS. THATS PROVING A BIT TRICKIER...NOT IN THE OVERALL
TREND /WHICH WL BE NON-DIURNAL WARMING/ BUT IN PEGGING SPECIFICS
WRT SFC FRZG. AM NOT CONVINCED WE/LL BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ALL COLD
AIR IN THE VLYS. AREA OF CONCERN STRETCHES ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS...AND INCLUDES THE BALT NRN BURBS/FREDERICK/I-81 N
OF OKV. HV HELD ONTO PTYPE OF ZR/S IN THESE AREAS...W/ A CHGOVER
TO RA S OF THERE. AM A BIT UNCERTAIN ABT LCL TEMPS FOR AN ADDTL
SLIVER INCL HOWARD/MONTGOMERY/LOUDOUN CNTYS...BUT DONT HV ENOUGH
HARD EVIDENCE TO PREVENT A FCSTD WARM-UP OVNGT.

POPS WL BE AT THEIR HIEST OVNGT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS NEARBY...FLLWD
BY A RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED CFP DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. TEMPS SHUD
BE STDY/FALLING MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERED A PINCH BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING IN NWLY FLOW. DUE TO THAT OFFSET...SHUD BE ABLE TO GET PCPN
AWAY FM DC BEFORE THERMAL CONDS SUPPORT SNOW. ELSW...WL BE SWITCHING
BACK TO A RA/SNW MODE AS CAA ALOFT WL BRING TEMPS BELOW FRZG ABV THE
SFC. WL ALSO HV THE RETURN OF UPSLP SHSN...BUT AT THIS POINT AM
KEEPING ONLY MINIMAL ADDTL ACCUMS.

DO NOT SEE SGFNT SNOW AMTS W/IN CWFA BASED ON CURRENT STORM
TRACK. HELD NRN MD/PTMC HIGHLANDS HIER THAN LTST RAW GDNC WUD
SUGGEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FINAL TALLIES WUD BE BELOW
WATCH/WRNG VALUES. SINCE FCST ERRING ON THE HIGH SIDE AND THAT
DOESNT MEET WATCH CRITERIA...WL BE CONTG HWO MENTION ONLY.

CWFA WL HV A CPL DAYS UNDER HIPRES. MON NGT-TUE WL BE ABNORMALLY
COLD THO...AS H8 TEMPS BTTM OUT ARND -12C IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEEPING CSTL LOW. LTST MOS GDNC A TOUCH WARMER FOR MON NGT MIN-T.
THIS STILL SUGGESTS A LARGE SWATH OF CWFA /NRN MD AND W OF BLURDG/
WL START TUE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ALL BUT CENTRL VA WL BE
STUGGLING TO RISE ABV FRZG TUE. RETURN FLOW WL REACH AREA TUE NGT
THO...FOR A CONSIDERABLY WARMER WED.

THERE MAY BE A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM DROPPING SWD FM THE
NRN STREAM WED...WHICH CUD BE THE FOCUS FOR RIPPLES FM EWD THRU THE
END OF THE WK. HV KEPT SOME CLDCVR TO ACCOMPANY FNT...BUT REMOVED
PCPN. SIMILARLY...PRIND SUGGEST THE FNT WUD THEN SET UP FAR ENUF
AWAY FM /IE...SE OF/ CWFA THU-FRI. THREAT OF PCPN LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

S FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS SUN. PCPN COULD IMPACT KMRB AS
EARLY AS 15Z...AS -SN...WITH PCPN BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE AFTN AT
ALL TERMINALS. -RA/PL FOR KCHO...-SN/PL ELSEWHERE. ANY SNOW ACCUMS
PRIOR TO 00Z MON WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

IFR CONDS LKLY SUN NGT AS LOPRES TRACKS ACRS AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE
LIKE A COLD RAIN FOR CHO/DCA. PTYPE AT BWI/IAD A LTL MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT RA SHUD DOMINATE. MRB STANDS BEST CHC AT RECEIVING
WINTRY PCPN. CFP DURING MRNG PUSH. WL BE EXPERIENCING STRONG NWLY
FLOW MOST OF THE DAY.

VFR XPCTD MON NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU 23Z. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.

LOPRES WL TRACK JUST BARELY N OF THE WATERS LT SUN NGT...FLLWD BY
CFP MON MRNG. WINDS WL PICK UP ON MON. MIXED LYR WL EASILY SUPPORT
SCA...AND MAY EVEN SUPPORT THE RETURN OF GLW. WL ADD THAT POTL TO
SYN AND HWO. XPCT A GRDL DECREASE OF WINDS MON NGT. TUE AND WED
SHUD BE QUIETER AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND...WITH MANY AREAS REACHING NEAR 30
TODAY...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 30S OVER CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SFC HIGH NUDGES EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW OVER KY BY 00Z MONDAY. DRY WX IN PLACE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR THE SECOND HALF AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS GENERALLY
EXPECTING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE GRADUAL
TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

INTRODUCED POPS INTO THE FAR NW AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE LIFT
PUSHES NORTH...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO PA...SPREAD THE POPS TO THE EAST...MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUM
PSBL.

FOR THE AFTN...PCPN SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH...WITH ONLY SOUTHERN MD
POSSIBLY STAYING DRY TILL SUN EVENING. P-TYPE FOR THE AFTN REMAINS
TRICKY AS THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW NOW BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 18Z SUN...AND RIGHT NEAR FREEZING BY
00Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING PCPN UP TO 18Z
AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT SNEAKING IN...COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN...MAINLY OVER VA...AND EVEN POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. THE ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT WITH SFC TEMPS PUSHING ABV FREEZING AS WAA SETS UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. AREAS JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE METRO COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
JUST HIT FREEZING...BUT WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS THERE...GENERALLY
SHOULD EXPECT SNOW AND NOT FZRA THRU 00Z MONDAY. FOR AREAS THAT
REMAIN ALL SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW FOR SUN AFTN...COULD SEE UP TO ONE
INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FM THE MID OH VLY TO THE NRN SXNS OF
THE CWFA SUN NGT. THIS SOLN ON THE SAME PAGE AS THE PAST DAY OR SO
OF FCST RUNS...AND REPRESENTS THE MORE NRN TRACK. THE H8 LOW ALSO
A LTL FURTHER N...INTO CENTRL PA. GIVEN THIS SOLN...THERE WL BE
NOTHING TO IMPEDE WARM AIR ALOFT FM OVERSPREADING CWFA.
THEREFORE...XPCT MELTING OF SOME IF NOT ALL HYDROMETEORS. THE KEY
WL BE SFC TEMPS. THATS PROVING A BIT TRICKIER...NOT IN THE OVERALL
TREND /WHICH WL BE NON-DIURNAL WARMING/ BUT IN PEGGING SPECIFICS
WRT SFC FRZG. AM NOT CONVINCED WE/LL BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ALL COLD
AIR IN THE VLYS. AREA OF CONCERN STRETCHES ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS...AND INCLUDES THE BALT NRN BURBS/FREDERICK/I-81 N
OF OKV. HV HELD ONTO PTYPE OF ZR/S IN THESE AREAS...W/ A CHGOVER
TO RA S OF THERE. AM A BIT UNCERTAIN ABT LCL TEMPS FOR AN ADDTL
SLIVER INCL HOWARD/MONTGOMERY/LOUDOUN CNTYS...BUT DONT HV ENOUGH
HARD EVIDENCE TO PREVENT A FCSTD WARM-UP OVNGT.

POPS WL BE AT THEIR HIEST OVNGT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS NEARBY...FLLWD
BY A RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED CFP DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. TEMPS SHUD
BE STDY/FALLING MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERED A PINCH BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING IN NWLY FLOW. DUE TO THAT OFFSET...SHUD BE ABLE TO GET PCPN
AWAY FM DC BEFORE THERMAL CONDS SUPPORT SNOW. ELSW...WL BE SWITCHING
BACK TO A RA/SNW MODE AS CAA ALOFT WL BRING TEMPS BELOW FRZG ABV THE
SFC. WL ALSO HV THE RETURN OF UPSLP SHSN...BUT AT THIS POINT AM
KEEPING ONLY MINIMAL ADDTL ACCUMS.

DO NOT SEE SGFNT SNOW AMTS W/IN CWFA BASED ON CURRENT STORM
TRACK. HELD NRN MD/PTMC HIGHLANDS HIER THAN LTST RAW GDNC WUD
SUGGEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FINAL TALLIES WUD BE BELOW
WATCH/WRNG VALUES. SINCE FCST ERRING ON THE HIGH SIDE AND THAT
DOESNT MEET WATCH CRITERIA...WL BE CONTG HWO MENTION ONLY.

CWFA WL HV A CPL DAYS UNDER HIPRES. MON NGT-TUE WL BE ABNORMALLY
COLD THO...AS H8 TEMPS BTTM OUT ARND -12C IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEEPING CSTL LOW. LTST MOS GDNC A TOUCH WARMER FOR MON NGT MIN-T.
THIS STILL SUGGESTS A LARGE SWATH OF CWFA /NRN MD AND W OF BLURDG/
WL START TUE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ALL BUT CENTRL VA WL BE
STUGGLING TO RISE ABV FRZG TUE. RETURN FLOW WL REACH AREA TUE NGT
THO...FOR A CONSIDERABLY WARMER WED.

THERE MAY BE A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM DROPPING SWD FM THE
NRN STREAM WED...WHICH CUD BE THE FOCUS FOR RIPPLES FM EWD THRU THE
END OF THE WK. HV KEPT SOME CLDCVR TO ACCOMPANY FNT...BUT REMOVED
PCPN. SIMILARLY...PRIND SUGGEST THE FNT WUD THEN SET UP FAR ENUF
AWAY FM /IE...SE OF/ CWFA THU-FRI. THREAT OF PCPN LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

S FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS SUN. PCPN COULD IMPACT KMRB AS
EARLY AS 15Z...AS -SN...WITH PCPN BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE AFTN AT
ALL TERMINALS. -RA/PL FOR KCHO...-SN/PL ELSEWHERE. ANY SNOW ACCUMS
PRIOR TO 00Z MON WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

IFR CONDS LKLY SUN NGT AS LOPRES TRACKS ACRS AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE
LIKE A COLD RAIN FOR CHO/DCA. PTYPE AT BWI/IAD A LTL MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT RA SHUD DOMINATE. MRB STANDS BEST CHC AT RECEIVING
WINTRY PCPN. CFP DURING MRNG PUSH. WL BE EXPERIENCING STRONG NWLY
FLOW MOST OF THE DAY.

VFR XPCTD MON NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISUED AN MWS FOR LOW WATER ON THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY W/ LOW
TIDE THIS MRNG.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU 19Z...THEN JUST ON THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC TIL 23Z.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.

LOPRES WL TRACK JUST BARELY N OF THE WATERS LT SUN NGT...FLLWD BY
CFP MON MRNG. WINDS WL PICK UP ON MON. MIXED LYR WL EASILY SUPPORT
SCA...AND MAY EVEN SUPPORT THE RETURN OF GLW. WL ADD THAT POTL TO
SYN AND HWO. XPCT A GRDL DECREASE OF WINDS MON NGT. TUE AND WED
SHUD BE QUIETER AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND...WITH MANY AREAS REACHING NEAR 30
TODAY...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 30S OVER CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SFC HIGH NUDGES EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW OVER KY BY 00Z MONDAY. DRY WX IN PLACE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR THE SECOND HALF AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS GENERALLY
EXPECTING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE GRADUAL
TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

INTRODUCED POPS INTO THE FAR NW AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE LIFT
PUSHES NORTH...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO PA...SPREAD THE POPS TO THE EAST...MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUM
PSBL.

FOR THE AFTN...PCPN SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH...WITH ONLY SOUTHERN MD
POSSIBLY STAYING DRY TILL SUN EVENING. P-TYPE FOR THE AFTN REMAINS
TRICKY AS THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW NOW BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 18Z SUN...AND RIGHT NEAR FREEZING BY
00Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING PCPN UP TO 18Z
AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT SNEAKING IN...COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN...MAINLY OVER VA...AND EVEN POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. THE ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT WITH SFC TEMPS PUSHING ABV FREEZING AS WAA SETS UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. AREAS JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE METRO COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
JUST HIT FREEZING...BUT WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS THERE...GENERALLY
SHOULD EXPECT SNOW AND NOT FZRA THRU 00Z MONDAY. FOR AREAS THAT
REMAIN ALL SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW FOR SUN AFTN...COULD SEE UP TO ONE
INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FM THE MID OH VLY TO THE NRN SXNS OF
THE CWFA SUN NGT. THIS SOLN ON THE SAME PAGE AS THE PAST DAY OR SO
OF FCST RUNS...AND REPRESENTS THE MORE NRN TRACK. THE H8 LOW ALSO
A LTL FURTHER N...INTO CENTRL PA. GIVEN THIS SOLN...THERE WL BE
NOTHING TO IMPEDE WARM AIR ALOFT FM OVERSPREADING CWFA.
THEREFORE...XPCT MELTING OF SOME IF NOT ALL HYDROMETEORS. THE KEY
WL BE SFC TEMPS. THATS PROVING A BIT TRICKIER...NOT IN THE OVERALL
TREND /WHICH WL BE NON-DIURNAL WARMING/ BUT IN PEGGING SPECIFICS
WRT SFC FRZG. AM NOT CONVINCED WE/LL BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ALL COLD
AIR IN THE VLYS. AREA OF CONCERN STRETCHES ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS...AND INCLUDES THE BALT NRN BURBS/FREDERICK/I-81 N
OF OKV. HV HELD ONTO PTYPE OF ZR/S IN THESE AREAS...W/ A CHGOVER
TO RA S OF THERE. AM A BIT UNCERTAIN ABT LCL TEMPS FOR AN ADDTL
SLIVER INCL HOWARD/MONTGOMERY/LOUDOUN CNTYS...BUT DONT HV ENOUGH
HARD EVIDENCE TO PREVENT A FCSTD WARM-UP OVNGT.

POPS WL BE AT THEIR HIEST OVNGT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS NEARBY...FLLWD
BY A RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED CFP DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. TEMPS SHUD
BE STDY/FALLING MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERED A PINCH BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING IN NWLY FLOW. DUE TO THAT OFFSET...SHUD BE ABLE TO GET PCPN
AWAY FM DC BEFORE THERMAL CONDS SUPPORT SNOW. ELSW...WL BE SWITCHING
BACK TO A RA/SNW MODE AS CAA ALOFT WL BRING TEMPS BELOW FRZG ABV THE
SFC. WL ALSO HV THE RETURN OF UPSLP SHSN...BUT AT THIS POINT AM
KEEPING ONLY MINIMAL ADDTL ACCUMS.

DO NOT SEE SGFNT SNOW AMTS W/IN CWFA BASED ON CURRENT STORM
TRACK. HELD NRN MD/PTMC HIGHLANDS HIER THAN LTST RAW GDNC WUD
SUGGEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FINAL TALLIES WUD BE BELOW
WATCH/WRNG VALUES. SINCE FCST ERRING ON THE HIGH SIDE AND THAT
DOESNT MEET WATCH CRITERIA...WL BE CONTG HWO MENTION ONLY.

CWFA WL HV A CPL DAYS UNDER HIPRES. MON NGT-TUE WL BE ABNORMALLY
COLD THO...AS H8 TEMPS BTTM OUT ARND -12C IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEEPING CSTL LOW. LTST MOS GDNC A TOUCH WARMER FOR MON NGT MIN-T.
THIS STILL SUGGESTS A LARGE SWATH OF CWFA /NRN MD AND W OF BLURDG/
WL START TUE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ALL BUT CENTRL VA WL BE
STUGGLING TO RISE ABV FRZG TUE. RETURN FLOW WL REACH AREA TUE NGT
THO...FOR A CONSIDERABLY WARMER WED.

THERE MAY BE A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM DROPPING SWD FM THE
NRN STREAM WED...WHICH CUD BE THE FOCUS FOR RIPPLES FM EWD THRU THE
END OF THE WK. HV KEPT SOME CLDCVR TO ACCOMPANY FNT...BUT REMOVED
PCPN. SIMILARLY...PRIND SUGGEST THE FNT WUD THEN SET UP FAR ENUF
AWAY FM /IE...SE OF/ CWFA THU-FRI. THREAT OF PCPN LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

S FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS SUN. PCPN COULD IMPACT KMRB AS
EARLY AS 15Z...AS -SN...WITH PCPN BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE AFTN AT
ALL TERMINALS. -RA/PL FOR KCHO...-SN/PL ELSEWHERE. ANY SNOW ACCUMS
PRIOR TO 00Z MON WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

IFR CONDS LKLY SUN NGT AS LOPRES TRACKS ACRS AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE
LIKE A COLD RAIN FOR CHO/DCA. PTYPE AT BWI/IAD A LTL MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT RA SHUD DOMINATE. MRB STANDS BEST CHC AT RECEIVING
WINTRY PCPN. CFP DURING MRNG PUSH. WL BE EXPERIENCING STRONG NWLY
FLOW MOST OF THE DAY.

VFR XPCTD MON NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISUED AN MWS FOR LOW WATER ON THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY W/ LOW
TIDE THIS MRNG.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU 19Z...THEN JUST ON THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC TIL 23Z.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.

LOPRES WL TRACK JUST BARELY N OF THE WATERS LT SUN NGT...FLLWD BY
CFP MON MRNG. WINDS WL PICK UP ON MON. MIXED LYR WL EASILY SUPPORT
SCA...AND MAY EVEN SUPPORT THE RETURN OF GLW. WL ADD THAT POTL TO
SYN AND HWO. XPCT A GRDL DECREASE OF WINDS MON NGT. TUE AND WED
SHUD BE QUIETER AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND INITIALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. TWO THINGS FOR THIS
MORNING...WIND CHILLS AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEGREES. AS TEMPS
WARM THIS MORNING...AND WINDS DIMINISH...EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES
TO IMPROVE TO ABV ZERO BY MID MORNING. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IS NOT UNDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...AREAS ALONG THE MASON
DIXON AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO THRU 8 AM.

AS FOR THE WINDS...EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH DAYBREAK
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LLJ AND THE TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT...TEENS OR EVEN NO GUSTS TO THE WEST WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SLACKEN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY THEN DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN A WARMING
TREND...WITH MANY AREAS REACHING NEAR 30 TODAY...AND EVEN INTO THE
MID 30S OVER CENTRAL VA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH NUDGES EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW OVER KY BY 00Z MONDAY. DRY WX IN PLACE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR THE SECOND HALF AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS GENERALLY
EXPECTING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE GRADUAL
TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

INTRODUCED POPS INTO THE FAR NW AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE LIFT
PUSHES NORTH...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO PA...SPREAD THE POPS TO THE EAST...MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUM
PSBL.

FOR THE AFTN...PCPN SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH...WITH ONLY SOUTHERN MD
POSSIBLY STAYING DRY TILL SUN EVENING. P-TYPE FOR THE AFTN REMAINS
TRICKY AS THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW NOW BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 18Z SUN...AND RIGHT NEAR FREEZING BY
00Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING PCPN UP TO 18Z
AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT SNEAKING IN...COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN...MAINLY OVER VA...AND EVEN POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. THE ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT WITH SFC TEMPS PUSHING ABV FREEZING AS WAA SETS UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. AREAS JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE METRO COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
JUST HIT FREEZING...BUT WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS THERE...GENERALLY
SHOULD EXPECT SNOW AND NOT FZRA THRU 00Z MONDAY. FOR AREAS THAT
REMAIN ALL SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW FOR SUN AFTN...COULD SEE UP TO ONE
INCH ACCUMULATION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FM THE MID OHVLY TO THE NRN SXNS OF THE
CWFA SUN NGT. THIS SOLN ON THE SAME PAGE AS THE PAST DAY OR SO OF
FCST RUNS...AND REPRESENTS THE MORE NRN TRACK. THE H8 LOW ALSO A LTL
FURTHER N...INTO CENTRL PA. GIVEN THIS SOLN...THERE WL BE NOTHING TO
IMPEDE WARM AIR ALOFT FM OVERSPREADING CWFA. THEREFORE...XPCT MELTING
OF SOME IF NOT ALL HYDROMETEORS. THE KEY WL BE SFC TEMPS. THATS
PROVING A BIT TRICKIER...NOT IN THE OVERALL TREND /WHICH WL BE
NON-DIURNAL WARMING/ BUT IN PEGGING SPECIFICS WRT SFC FRZG. AM NOT
CONVINCED WE/LL BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ALL COLD AIR IN THE VLYS. AREA
OF CONCERN STRETCHES ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...AND
INCLUDES THE BALT NRN BURBS/FREDERICK/I-81 N OF OKV. HV HELD ONTO
PTYPE OF ZR/S IN THESE AREAS...W/ A CHGOVER TO RA S OF THERE. AM A
BIT UNCERTAIN ABT LCL TEMPS FOR AN ADDTL SLIVER INCL
HOWARD/MONTGOMERY/LOUDOUN CNTYS...BUT DONT HV ENOUGH HARD EVIDENCE
TO PREVENT A FCSTD WARM-UP OVNGT.

POPS WL BE AT THEIR HIEST OVNGT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS NEARBY...FLLWD
BY A RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED CFP DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. TEMPS SHUD
BE STDY/FALLING MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERED A PINCH BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING IN NWLY FLOW. DUE TO THAT OFFSET...SHUD BE ABLE TO GET PCPN
AWAY FM DC BEFORE THERMAL CONDS SUPPORT SNOW. ELSW...WL BE SWITCHING
BACK TO A RA/SNW MODE AS CAA ALOFT WL BRING TEMPS BELOW FRZG ABV THE
SFC. WL ALSO HV THE RETURN OF UPSLP SHSN...BUT AT THIS POINT AM
KEEPING ONLY MINIMAL ADDTL ACCUMS.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...DO NOT SEE SGFNT SNOW AMTS W/IN CWFA BASED ON
CURRENT STORM TRACK. HELD NRN MD/PTMC HIGHLANDS HIER THAN LTST RAW
GDNC WUD SUGGEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FINAL TALLIES WUD BE
BELOW WATCH/WRNG VALUES. SINCE FCST ERRING ON THE HIGH SIDE AND THAT
DOESNT MEET WATCH CRITERIA...WL BE CONTG HWO MENTION ONLY.

CWFA WL HV A CPL DAYS UNDER HIPRES. MON NGT-TUE WL BE ABNORMALLY
COLD THO...AS H8 TEMPS BTTM OUT ARND -12C IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEEPING CSTL LOW. LTST MOS GDNC A TOUCH WARMER FOR MON NGT MIN-T.
THIS STILL SUGGESTS A LARGE SWATH OF CWFA /NRN MD AND W OF BLURDG/
WL START TUE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ALL BUT CENTRL VA WL BE
STUGGLING TO RISE ABV FRZG TUE. RETURN FLOW WL REACH AREA TUE NGT
THO...FOR A CONSIDERABLY WARMER WED.

THERE MAY BE A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM DROPPING SWD FM THE
NRN STREAM WED...WHICH CUD BE THE FOCUS FOR RIPPLES FM EWD THRU THE
END OF THE WK. HV KEPT SOME CLDCVR TO ACCOMPANY FNT...BUT REMOVED
PCPN. SIMILARLY...PRIND SUGGEST THE FNT WUD THEN SET UP FAR ENUF
AWAY FM /IE...SE OF/ CWFA THU-FRI. THREAT OF PCPN LOOKS MINIMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

NW FLOW WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...WITH
GUSTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MID-LATE MORNING...THEN BCMG MORE OCNL
IN NATURE FOR THE AFTN. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KTS 21-23Z...AND
BCMG LIGHT/VRB TONIGHT. EXCEPTION...GUSTS ALREADY ENDED KCHO AND
WILL BE OCNL IN NATURE THIS MORNING AT KMRB.

S FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS SUN. PCPN COULD IMPACT KMRB AS EARLY
AS 15Z...AS -SN...WITH PCPN BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. -RA/PL FOR KCHO...-SN/PL ELSEWHERE. ANY SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR
TO 00Z MON WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

IFR CONDS LKLY SUN NGT AS LOPRES TRACKS ACRS AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE
LIKE A COLD RAIN FOR CHO/DCA. PTYPE AT BWI/IAD A LTL MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT RA SHUD DOMINATE. MRB STANDS BEST CHC AT RECEIVING
WINTRY PCPN. CFP DURING MRNG PUSH. WL BE EXPERIENCING STRONG NWLY
FLOW MOST OF THE DAY.

VFR XPCTD MON NGT-WED.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL BE CONVERTING
GALE WARNING TO SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS HAVING REPORTED FOR MULTIPLE
HOURS OF GUSTS LESS THAN 34 KTS. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU
19Z...THEN JUST ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TIDAL POTOMAC TIL 23Z. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.

OF NOTE FOR THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABV 20 KTS...SEAS
AROUND 3 FT...AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S...PSBL LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
RESULTING IN MINIMAL ICE ACCUMS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

LOPRES WL TRACK JUST BARELY N OF THE WATERS LT SUN NGT...FLLWD BY
CFP MON MRNG. WINDS WL PICK UP ON MON. MIXED LYR WL EASILY SUPPORT
SCA...AND MAY EVEN SUPPORT THE RETURN OF GLW. WL ADD THAT POTL TO
SYN AND HWO. XPCT A GRDL DECREASE OF WINDS MON NGT. TUE AND WED SHUD
BE QUIETER AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND INITIALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. TWO THINGS FOR THIS
MORNING...WIND CHILLS AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEGREES. AS TEMPS
WARM THIS MORNING...AND WINDS DIMINISH...EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES
TO IMPROVE TO ABV ZERO BY MID MORNING. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IS NOT UNDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...AREAS ALONG THE MASON
DIXON AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO THRU 8 AM.

AS FOR THE WINDS...EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH DAYBREAK
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LLJ AND THE TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT...TEENS OR EVEN NO GUSTS TO THE WEST WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SLACKEN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY THEN DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH. AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN A WARMING
TREND...WITH MANY AREAS REACHING NEAR 30 TODAY...AND EVEN INTO THE
MID 30S OVER CENTRAL VA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH NUDGES EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW OVER KY BY 00Z MONDAY. DRY WX IN PLACE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR THE SECOND HALF AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS GENERALLY
EXPECTING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING...WITH A MORE GRADUAL
TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

INTRODUCED POPS INTO THE FAR NW AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE LIFT
PUSHES NORTH...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO PA...SPREAD THE POPS TO THE EAST...MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUM
PSBL.

FOR THE AFTN...PCPN SPREADS EAST AND SOUTH...WITH ONLY SOUTHERN MD
POSSIBLY STAYING DRY TILL SUN EVENING. P-TYPE FOR THE AFTN REMAINS
TRICKY AS THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW NOW BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 18Z SUN...AND RIGHT NEAR FREEZING BY
00Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING PCPN UP TO 18Z
AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER LAYER ALOFT SNEAKING IN...COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING IN...MAINLY OVER VA...AND EVEN POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. THE ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT WITH SFC TEMPS PUSHING ABV FREEZING AS WAA SETS UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. AREAS JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE METRO COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
JUST HIT FREEZING...BUT WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS THERE...GENERALLY
SHOULD EXPECT SNOW AND NOT FZRA THRU 00Z MONDAY. FOR AREAS THAT
REMAIN ALL SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW FOR SUN AFTN...COULD SEE UP TO ONE
INCH ACCUMULATION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK FM THE MID OHVLY TO THE NRN SXNS OF THE
CWFA SUN NGT. THIS SOLN ON THE SAME PAGE AS THE PAST DAY OR SO OF
FCST RUNS...AND REPRESENTS THE MORE NRN TRACK. THE H8 LOW ALSO A LTL
FURTHER N...INTO CENTRL PA. GIVEN THIS SOLN...THERE WL BE NOTHING TO
IMPEDE WARM AIR ALOFT FM OVERSPREADING CWFA. THEREFORE...XPCT MELTING
OF SOME IF NOT ALL HYDROMETEORS. THE KEY WL BE SFC TEMPS. THATS
PROVING A BIT TRICKIER...NOT IN THE OVERALL TREND /WHICH WL BE
NON-DIURNAL WARMING/ BUT IN PEGGING SPECIFICS WRT SFC FRZG. AM NOT
CONVINCED WE/LL BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ALL COLD AIR IN THE VLYS. AREA
OF CONCERN STRETCHES ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...AND
INCLUDES THE BALT NRN BURBS/FREDERICK/I-81 N OF OKV. HV HELD ONTO
PTYPE OF ZR/S IN THESE AREAS...W/ A CHGOVER TO RA S OF THERE. AM A
BIT UNCERTAIN ABT LCL TEMPS FOR AN ADDTL SLIVER INCL
HOWARD/MONTGOMERY/LOUDOUN CNTYS...BUT DONT HV ENOUGH HARD EVIDENCE
TO PREVENT A FCSTD WARM-UP OVNGT.

POPS WL BE AT THEIR HIEST OVNGT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS NEARBY...FLLWD
BY A RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED CFP DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. TEMPS SHUD
BE STDY/FALLING MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERED A PINCH BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING IN NWLY FLOW. DUE TO THAT OFFSET...SHUD BE ABLE TO GET PCPN
AWAY FM DC BEFORE THERMAL CONDS SUPPORT SNOW. ELSW...WL BE SWITCHING
BACK TO A RA/SNW MODE AS CAA ALOFT WL BRING TEMPS BELOW FRZG ABV THE
SFC. WL ALSO HV THE RETURN OF UPSLP SHSN...BUT AT THIS POINT AM
KEEPING ONLY MINIMAL ADDTL ACCUMS.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...DO NOT SEE SGFNT SNOW AMTS W/IN CWFA BASED ON
CURRENT STORM TRACK. HELD NRN MD/PTMC HIGHLANDS HIER THAN LTST RAW
GDNC WUD SUGGEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FINAL TALLIES WUD BE
BELOW WATCH/WRNG VALUES. SINCE FCST ERRING ON THE HIGH SIDE AND THAT
DOESNT MEET WATCH CRITERIA...WL BE CONTG HWO MENTION ONLY.

CWFA WL HV A CPL DAYS UNDER HIPRES. MON NGT-TUE WL BE ABNORMALLY
COLD THO...AS H8 TEMPS BTTM OUT ARND -12C IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEEPING CSTL LOW. LTST MOS GDNC A TOUCH WARMER FOR MON NGT MIN-T.
THIS STILL SUGGESTS A LARGE SWATH OF CWFA /NRN MD AND W OF BLURDG/
WL START TUE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ALL BUT CENTRL VA WL BE
STUGGLING TO RISE ABV FRZG TUE. RETURN FLOW WL REACH AREA TUE NGT
THO...FOR A CONSIDERABLY WARMER WED.

THERE MAY BE A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM DROPPING SWD FM THE
NRN STREAM WED...WHICH CUD BE THE FOCUS FOR RIPPLES FM EWD THRU THE
END OF THE WK. HV KEPT SOME CLDCVR TO ACCOMPANY FNT...BUT REMOVED
PCPN. SIMILARLY...PRIND SUGGEST THE FNT WUD THEN SET UP FAR ENUF
AWAY FM /IE...SE OF/ CWFA THU-FRI. THREAT OF PCPN LOOKS MINIMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

NW FLOW WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...WITH
GUSTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MID-LATE MORNING...THEN BCMG MORE OCNL
IN NATURE FOR THE AFTN. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KTS 21-23Z...AND
BCMG LIGHT/VRB TONIGHT. EXCEPTION...GUSTS ALREADY ENDED KCHO AND
WILL BE OCNL IN NATURE THIS MORNING AT KMRB.

S FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS SUN. PCPN COULD IMPACT KMRB AS EARLY
AS 15Z...AS -SN...WITH PCPN BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE AFTN AT ALL
TERMINALS. -RA/PL FOR KCHO...-SN/PL ELSEWHERE. ANY SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR
TO 00Z MON WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

IFR CONDS LKLY SUN NGT AS LOPRES TRACKS ACRS AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE
LIKE A COLD RAIN FOR CHO/DCA. PTYPE AT BWI/IAD A LTL MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT RA SHUD DOMINATE. MRB STANDS BEST CHC AT RECEIVING
WINTRY PCPN. CFP DURING MRNG PUSH. WL BE EXPERIENCING STRONG NWLY
FLOW MOST OF THE DAY.

VFR XPCTD MON NGT-WED.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL BE CONVERTING
GALE WARNING TO SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS HAVING REPORTED FOR MULTIPLE
HOURS OF GUSTS LESS THAN 34 KTS. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU
19Z...THEN JUST ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TIDAL POTOMAC TIL 23Z. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY.

OF NOTE FOR THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABV 20 KTS...SEAS
AROUND 3 FT...AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S...PSBL LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
RESULTING IN MINIMAL ICE ACCUMS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

LOPRES WL TRACK JUST BARELY N OF THE WATERS LT SUN NGT...FLLWD BY
CFP MON MRNG. WINDS WL PICK UP ON MON. MIXED LYR WL EASILY SUPPORT
SCA...AND MAY EVEN SUPPORT THE RETURN OF GLW. WL ADD THAT POTL TO
SYN AND HWO. XPCT A GRDL DECREASE OF WINDS MON NGT. TUE AND WED SHUD
BE QUIETER AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310537
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG EAST OF THE CWA WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE...THOUGH AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. WITH NO RECENT REPORTS OF ADVISORY LVL WINDS...AND THE
TREND OF DECREASING...HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. GOING WEST...WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP NEAR 10 BELOW OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND AS SUCH AM CONTINUING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NW FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS INTO THE 20S STILL
EXPECTED THRU DAYBREAK.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH THE GALE
WARNING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BE DOWNGRADED
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
GALES WILL END. IT/S POSSIBLE THEY CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING...AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER MD BAY. IF THAT/S THE CASE THE
GALE WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-
     505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 310537
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG EAST OF THE CWA WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE...THOUGH AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. WITH NO RECENT REPORTS OF ADVISORY LVL WINDS...AND THE
TREND OF DECREASING...HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. GOING WEST...WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP NEAR 10 BELOW OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND AS SUCH AM CONTINUING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NW FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS INTO THE 20S STILL
EXPECTED THRU DAYBREAK.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH THE GALE
WARNING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BE DOWNGRADED
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
GALES WILL END. IT/S POSSIBLE THEY CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING...AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER MD BAY. IF THAT/S THE CASE THE
GALE WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-
     505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 310537
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG EAST OF THE CWA WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE...THOUGH AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. WITH NO RECENT REPORTS OF ADVISORY LVL WINDS...AND THE
TREND OF DECREASING...HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. GOING WEST...WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP NEAR 10 BELOW OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND AS SUCH AM CONTINUING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NW FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS INTO THE 20S STILL
EXPECTED THRU DAYBREAK.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH THE GALE
WARNING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BE DOWNGRADED
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
GALES WILL END. IT/S POSSIBLE THEY CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING...AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER MD BAY. IF THAT/S THE CASE THE
GALE WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-
     505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 310537
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG EAST OF THE CWA WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE...THOUGH AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. WITH NO RECENT REPORTS OF ADVISORY LVL WINDS...AND THE
TREND OF DECREASING...HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. GOING WEST...WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP NEAR 10 BELOW OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND AS SUCH AM CONTINUING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NW FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS INTO THE 20S STILL
EXPECTED THRU DAYBREAK.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH THE GALE
WARNING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BE DOWNGRADED
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
GALES WILL END. IT/S POSSIBLE THEY CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING...AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER MD BAY. IF THAT/S THE CASE THE
GALE WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-
     505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 310127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
827 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE. TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND CORE
OF THE GUSTY WINDS RESIDE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO
AREA. CONTINUE TO SEE 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS...AND WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. FURTHER WEST...GRADIENT IS NOT AT TIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CANCELLED
WIND ADVISORY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH WIND AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP NEAR 10
BELOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE WIND THIS EVENING. GUSTS AOA 35 KT MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 39KT LAST HOUR AT TPLM2. GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN GALES WILL END. IT/S POSSIBLE
THEY CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER MD
BAY. IF THAT/S THE CASE THE GALE WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ040-051>055-
     057-501-502-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/ABW/ADS/KLW
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BPP/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
827 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE. TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND CORE
OF THE GUSTY WINDS RESIDE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO
AREA. CONTINUE TO SEE 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS...AND WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. FURTHER WEST...GRADIENT IS NOT AT TIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CANCELLED
WIND ADVISORY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH WIND AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP NEAR 10
BELOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE WIND THIS EVENING. GUSTS AOA 35 KT MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 39KT LAST HOUR AT TPLM2. GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN GALES WILL END. IT/S POSSIBLE
THEY CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER MD
BAY. IF THAT/S THE CASE THE GALE WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ040-051>055-
     057-501-502-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/ABW/ADS/KLW
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BPP/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
827 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE. TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND CORE
OF THE GUSTY WINDS RESIDE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO
AREA. CONTINUE TO SEE 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS...AND WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. FURTHER WEST...GRADIENT IS NOT AT TIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CANCELLED
WIND ADVISORY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH WIND AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP NEAR 10
BELOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE WIND THIS EVENING. GUSTS AOA 35 KT MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 39KT LAST HOUR AT TPLM2. GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN GALES WILL END. IT/S POSSIBLE
THEY CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER MD
BAY. IF THAT/S THE CASE THE GALE WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ040-051>055-
     057-501-502-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/ABW/ADS/KLW
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BPP/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
827 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS SWUNG EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE. TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND CORE
OF THE GUSTY WINDS RESIDE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO
AREA. CONTINUE TO SEE 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS...AND WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. FURTHER WEST...GRADIENT IS NOT AT TIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CANCELLED
WIND ADVISORY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH WIND AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO DIP NEAR 10
BELOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE WIND THIS EVENING. GUSTS AOA 35 KT MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 39KT LAST HOUR AT TPLM2. GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN GALES WILL END. IT/S POSSIBLE
THEY CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AT LEAST OVER THE LOWER MD
BAY. IF THAT/S THE CASE THE GALE WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ040-051>055-
     057-501-502-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/ABW/ADS/KLW
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BPP/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

STRONG PRES GRAD PERSISTS OVR THE MID ATLC. LOTS OF GUSTS INTO THE
30+ MPH LVL...FEW ABV 40...BUT WL LV THE WIND ADVSRY UP AND LET
THE EVE SHIFT DECIDE IF IT SHOULD BE DROPPED B4 THE MDNGT
XPIRATION TIME.

RCVD A CALL FM OUR SPOTTER IN WRN PENDLETON - STILL SNOWING ABT
1/2" PER HR. 8" ON GRND. XPCT ANOTHER 1-2" COULD FALL LATE THIS
AFTN/ERLY EVE B4 SNOW TAPERS OFF.

SKIES SHOULD RMN CLDY THRU MID EVE THEN CLRG SHOULD TAKE OVR AS
HIGH MOVES OVR THE RGN. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...L20S IN THE CITIES...SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHLANDS.
IN ADTN WIND CHILL XPCTD TO FALL TO ARND -5 IN THE HIGHLANDS...
SINGLE DIGITS OVR MUCH OF THE RMDR OF THE CWA. THIS IS ABV WIND
CHILL ADVSRY LVL...BUT AGN WL ASK EVE SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LATER GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BKN CLDS XPCTD TO CONT OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU MID EVE...BUT
RMNG IN THE VFR RANGE. WIND GUSTS INTO THE M30S AT SITES XCPT FOR
CHO. SKIES CLRG OVRNGT...GUSTS INTO THE 20S ON SAT W/ GNRLY CLR
SKIES.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE
LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

RCVG GUSTS INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE AT SVRL SITES ON THE PTMC/BAY.
GALE WRNG IN EFFECT THRU 4 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE XTND...OR
LOWERED TO AN SCA. IT IS LKLY THAT AN SCA WL BE NEEDED FOR WATERS
INTO THE AFTN HRS SAT...THEN DROPPING OFF IN LATE AFTN AS HIGH
PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWRLY WINDS HV CAUSED WATER LVLS TO DROP BLO NRML ON THE
BAY/PTMC...BUT ATTM THESE ARE NOT AT SUCH A CRITICAL LVL THAT ANY
KIND OF STMT NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AGN EVE SHIFT WL BE ASKED TO KEEP
AN EYE OF WATER LVLS...WHICH SHOULD RMN BLO NRML THRU MID AFTN
SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-501>508.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-040-
     051>055-057-501>508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

STRONG PRES GRAD PERSISTS OVR THE MID ATLC. LOTS OF GUSTS INTO THE
30+ MPH LVL...FEW ABV 40...BUT WL LV THE WIND ADVSRY UP AND LET
THE EVE SHIFT DECIDE IF IT SHOULD BE DROPPED B4 THE MDNGT
XPIRATION TIME.

RCVD A CALL FM OUR SPOTTER IN WRN PENDLETON - STILL SNOWING ABT
1/2" PER HR. 8" ON GRND. XPCT ANOTHER 1-2" COULD FALL LATE THIS
AFTN/ERLY EVE B4 SNOW TAPERS OFF.

SKIES SHOULD RMN CLDY THRU MID EVE THEN CLRG SHOULD TAKE OVR AS
HIGH MOVES OVR THE RGN. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...L20S IN THE CITIES...SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHLANDS.
IN ADTN WIND CHILL XPCTD TO FALL TO ARND -5 IN THE HIGHLANDS...
SINGLE DIGITS OVR MUCH OF THE RMDR OF THE CWA. THIS IS ABV WIND
CHILL ADVSRY LVL...BUT AGN WL ASK EVE SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LATER GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SAT HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. E OF THE HIGHLANDS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST. LITTLE OF NOTE OTHER THAN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER.
COLUMN ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPS WILL TRY
TO EDGE ABOVE FREEZING AND IN FACT MAY RISE ABOVE 40 DEG SOUTH OF
US-50...SO SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

30.12Z MODEL SUITE HAS HELD SERVE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE COLDER CANADIAN SOLUTION NOW ON THE
NORTHWARD TREND. PER COLLAB WITH WPC...THIS SEEMS TO BE A STABLE
TREND...AND IF ANYTHING MAY END UP BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SENDS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
DIMINISHES THE PROB OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...RATHER AN EXTENSION OF A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE M-D LINE AND IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOUTHERN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL RAIN. IN BETWEEN
THE CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A LITTLE MIX OF EVERYTHING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR MODELS TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ON AN
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH IN-SITU CAD/COLD AIR LOCKING IN PLACE IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FZRA WHERE MODELS
DEPICT IT BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. DO HAVE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMS FROM SHENANDOAH VALLEY UP TO AND ALONG THE M-D LINE...WHERE
EVEN THEY WILL LIKELY MIX SOME AND LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. DC/BALT METROS
ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE...SO PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS FINE TUNED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATCH ON THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...LONG LEAD TIME...AND ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS FOR WARNING
CRITERIA ON THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR METRO D.C. WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXISTS FOR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS...BUT WILL STILL
BE CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BKN CLDS XPCTD TO CONT OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU MID EVE...BUT
RMNG IN THE VFR RANGE. WIND GUSTS INTO THE M30S AT SITES XCPT FOR
CHO. SKIES CLRG OVRNGT...GUSTS INTO THE 20S ON SAT W/ GNRLY CLR
SKIES.

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE
LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS COULD START THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN MIX IN
NEAR CHO. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SW BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS EARLY MONDAY THEN INCREASING NW 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KNOTS MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUING NW 15
KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING N BECOMING S AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

RCVG GUSTS INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE AT SVRL SITES ON THE PTMC/BAY.
GALE WRNG IN EFFECT THRU 4 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE XTND...OR
LOWERED TO AN SCA. IT IS LKLY THAT AN SCA WL BE NEEDED FOR WATERS
INTO THE AFTN HRS SAT...THEN DROPPING OFF IN LATE AFTN AS HIGH
PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER POTOMAC AND NORTHERN
BAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWRLY WINDS HV CAUSED WATER LVLS TO DROP BLO NRML ON THE
BAY/PTMC...BUT ATTM THESE ARE NOT AT SUCH A CRITICAL LVL THAT ANY
KIND OF STMT NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AGN EVE SHIFT WL BE ASKED TO KEEP
AN EYE OF WATER LVLS...WHICH SHOULD RMN BLO NRML THRU MID AFTN
SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-501>508.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-040-
     051>055-057-501>508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/KLW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
158 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
E OF THE MTNS TEMPS HV BEEN WARMING FASTER THAN XPCTD...AND HV
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS. STLT SHOWS WVS OF CLDS CONT TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA FM THE NW. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ON IAD 12Z SNDG - WE
HV ALREADY SEEN ONE BAND OF SNSH MOVE THRU THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT
WE SEE MORE THIS AFTN.

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA - THE STEEP LO LVL TEMP GRAD WL ALSO
HELP TRANSLATE GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. WIND ADVSRY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT UPSLOPING
SNOW SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SAT.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BEING USHERED IN AS 850MB TEMPS DIP BELOW -10 DEGREES
CELSIUS. USING A BLEND OF ADJMET/MOSGUIDE...TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH
SHOULD SEE LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
THE ON GOING NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12 DEGREES. HOWEVER...HAVE HELD OFF FOR ANY
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME WITH THE VALUES BEING BORDERLINE WITH THE
CRITERIA AND IT BEING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH
IT WILL BE VERY COLD...WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV
CRITERIA LVLS.

BY SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING AS THE HIGH NUDGES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND INJECTING IN WARMER AIR.
DESPITE THE WARMING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HOLDING OFF TILL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AND HAVE THUS A DRY FORECAST THRU
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MDLS ARE TRACKING THE LOW PRES AREA SUN NGT/MON ACROSS THE CWA.
ATTM THE BEST CHC FOR ACUMULATING SNOWS LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE M-D LN.

NEXT WEEK WL START COLD AS THE CSTL LOW STRENGTHENS...DRAGGING
DOWN COLD AIR. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE DROPPING TO -10 TO -14C. AT THAT
RATE MON-TUE MAXT WL HV TROUBLE RISING ABV FRZG...AND MIN-T MAY
DIP BELOW 0 DEGF ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS.

GFS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SRN STREAM LOW WL FLLW MIDWEEK HIPRES
FOR A POTL STORMY THU. ITS STILL TBD IF WE WL RECEIVE THE LOW OR IT
WL PASS S OF CWFA. WL BE KEEPING POPS LOW AS THERES A LOT OF WX TO
GET THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY STRONG NW FLOW. GUSTS START TIME +/- 1-2
HRS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING 30-40
KTS THIS AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS PSBL THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCHO COULD SEE
GUSTS ENDING AS EARLY AS 06Z. ISO SNOW SHOWER PSBL KMRB BUT TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE...ESP WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO CONDITIONS.

DECREASING WNW FLOW SAT WITH WINDS BCMG W SAT NIGHT. PSBL LOWERING
CIGS LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS APLENTY SUN AS LOPRES CROSSES TERMINALS. THE
AFTN-NIGHT TIME HRS SHUD BE MOST AFFECTED. PTYPE ISSUES EXIST. ITS
NO LONGER A CLEAR-CUT SNOW EVENT. THE LOW WL BE PULLING OFFSHORE
MON. CONDS WL IMPRV THRU THE DAY...BUT SHUD HV SOME STRONG NW WIND
GUSTS.

VFR TUE UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THRU TONIGHT. COULD SEE LINGERING
GALES PAST DAYBREAK SAT MORNING...BUT HAVE HELD AT 09Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. HIGH CONFIDENCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL
SET IN SAT MORNING FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND PSBL OVER THE TIDAL
POTOMAC. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE FOR SAT NIGHT.

LOPRES APPRCHS WATERS SUN DAY AND CROSSES SUN NGT. TRACK OF LOW WL
PERMIT A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES AT NIGHT BEFORE CHGG BACK TO SNOW UPON
EXIT MON. ALSO ON MON SHUD BE STIFF NW WINDS AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS AS IT PULLS AWAY. AT LEAST SCA PSBL. WUDNT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT GLW...CONTINGENT UPON DETAILS THAT ARE STILL A LTL MURKY.
HIPRES WL RETURN BY TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS TURNED NW BHD A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT BLOW OUT TIDES.
THEREFORE...WATER LEVELS XPCTD TO RETURN TO NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-501>508.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-040-
     051>055-057-501>508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KLWX 301858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
158 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
E OF THE MTNS TEMPS HV BEEN WARMING FASTER THAN XPCTD...AND HV
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS. STLT SHOWS WVS OF CLDS CONT TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA FM THE NW. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ON IAD 12Z SNDG - WE
HV ALREADY SEEN ONE BAND OF SNSH MOVE THRU THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT
WE SEE MORE THIS AFTN.

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA - THE STEEP LO LVL TEMP GRAD WL ALSO
HELP TRANSLATE GUSTY WINDS TO SFC. WIND ADVSRY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT UPSLOPING
SNOW SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SAT.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BEING USHERED IN AS 850MB TEMPS DIP BELOW -10 DEGREES
CELSIUS. USING A BLEND OF ADJMET/MOSGUIDE...TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH
SHOULD SEE LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
THE ON GOING NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12 DEGREES. HOWEVER...HAVE HELD OFF FOR ANY
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME WITH THE VALUES BEING BORDERLINE WITH THE
CRITERIA AND IT BEING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH
IT WILL BE VERY COLD...WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV
CRITERIA LVLS.

BY SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING AS THE HIGH NUDGES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND INJECTING IN WARMER AIR.
DESPITE THE WARMING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HOLDING OFF TILL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AND HAVE THUS A DRY FORECAST THRU
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MDLS ARE TRACKING THE LOW PRES AREA SUN NGT/MON ACROSS THE CWA.
ATTM THE BEST CHC FOR ACUMULATING SNOWS LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE M-D LN.

NEXT WEEK WL START COLD AS THE CSTL LOW STRENGTHENS...DRAGGING
DOWN COLD AIR. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE DROPPING TO -10 TO -14C. AT THAT
RATE MON-TUE MAXT WL HV TROUBLE RISING ABV FRZG...AND MIN-T MAY
DIP BELOW 0 DEGF ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS.

GFS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SRN STREAM LOW WL FLLW MIDWEEK HIPRES
FOR A POTL STORMY THU. ITS STILL TBD IF WE WL RECEIVE THE LOW OR IT
WL PASS S OF CWFA. WL BE KEEPING POPS LOW AS THERES A LOT OF WX TO
GET THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY STRONG NW FLOW. GUSTS START TIME +/- 1-2
HRS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING 30-40
KTS THIS AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS PSBL THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCHO COULD SEE
GUSTS ENDING AS EARLY AS 06Z. ISO SNOW SHOWER PSBL KMRB BUT TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE...ESP WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO CONDITIONS.

DECREASING WNW FLOW SAT WITH WINDS BCMG W SAT NIGHT. PSBL LOWERING
CIGS LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS APLENTY SUN AS LOPRES CROSSES TERMINALS. THE
AFTN-NIGHT TIME HRS SHUD BE MOST AFFECTED. PTYPE ISSUES EXIST. ITS
NO LONGER A CLEAR-CUT SNOW EVENT. THE LOW WL BE PULLING OFFSHORE
MON. CONDS WL IMPRV THRU THE DAY...BUT SHUD HV SOME STRONG NW WIND
GUSTS.

VFR TUE UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THRU TONIGHT. COULD SEE LINGERING
GALES PAST DAYBREAK SAT MORNING...BUT HAVE HELD AT 09Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. HIGH CONFIDENCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL
SET IN SAT MORNING FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND PSBL OVER THE TIDAL
POTOMAC. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE FOR SAT NIGHT.

LOPRES APPRCHS WATERS SUN DAY AND CROSSES SUN NGT. TRACK OF LOW WL
PERMIT A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES AT NIGHT BEFORE CHGG BACK TO SNOW UPON
EXIT MON. ALSO ON MON SHUD BE STIFF NW WINDS AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS AS IT PULLS AWAY. AT LEAST SCA PSBL. WUDNT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT GLW...CONTINGENT UPON DETAILS THAT ARE STILL A LTL MURKY.
HIPRES WL RETURN BY TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS TURNED NW BHD A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT BLOW OUT TIDES.
THEREFORE...WATER LEVELS XPCTD TO RETURN TO NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-501>508.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-040-
     051>055-057-501>508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities