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000
FXUS61 KLWX 300139
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
939 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A warm
front across Georgia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold
front wil move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is
expected to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Pretty spectular weather for the first days of summer courtesy of
high pressure building into the region from the Upper Midwest
which is creating northwest winds and dewpoints in the 50s across
the Mid Atlantic. Tonight should feel extremely comfortable with
lows in the 50s in many areas...60s urban core and near suburbs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday is expected to start dry and comfortable. Highs in the
mid 80s. There is a boundary over the Gulf States. There are
questions over how far north that will be able to progress...and
hence some models have become quite moist with POPs in the likely
category. These POPs seem higher than what they should be for the
weather pattern and time of the year. For now we`ll keep these in
the low chance category Thursday evening...with a better shot on
Friday...particularly in the eastern part of the area. 12Z Euro
shows a short wave coming through on Friday to begin July..and the
SREF severe parameter is showing possible thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm across the southern
half of our region Saturday through Sunday night with a stalled
front along the Virginia and North Carolina state line.

As a storm system develops along the western end of the front and
across portions of the Midwest U.S. Monday into Monday night, the
stalled front will propagate northward as a warm front. This
warm front will usher in more humid and warm air northward to
help fuel showers and a few thunderstorm farther north into northern
Virginia, Maryland and eastern West Virginia Monday into Monday
night.

The next storm system will move across the eastern Ohio Valley and
portions of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the storm system Tuesday. The storm is
expected to exit east and move offshore the East Coast Tuesday
night.

High pressure will usher in cooler and drier air into the region
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR tonight and Thursday. Could be a little fog at MRB and
CHO overnight into early Thursday morning. Chance of
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night except for
possible MVFR conditions near the CHO terminal. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest less than 5 knots Saturday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have droped below SCA values tonight and should stay below
through Thursday night. Chance of thunderstorms Friday along with
potential for SCA gusts ahead of cold front.

No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
northwest around 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots Saturday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300139
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
939 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A warm
front across Georgia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold
front wil move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is
expected to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Pretty spectular weather for the first days of summer courtesy of
high pressure building into the region from the Upper Midwest
which is creating northwest winds and dewpoints in the 50s across
the Mid Atlantic. Tonight should feel extremely comfortable with
lows in the 50s in many areas...60s urban core and near suburbs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday is expected to start dry and comfortable. Highs in the
mid 80s. There is a boundary over the Gulf States. There are
questions over how far north that will be able to progress...and
hence some models have become quite moist with POPs in the likely
category. These POPs seem higher than what they should be for the
weather pattern and time of the year. For now we`ll keep these in
the low chance category Thursday evening...with a better shot on
Friday...particularly in the eastern part of the area. 12Z Euro
shows a short wave coming through on Friday to begin July..and the
SREF severe parameter is showing possible thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm across the southern
half of our region Saturday through Sunday night with a stalled
front along the Virginia and North Carolina state line.

As a storm system develops along the western end of the front and
across portions of the Midwest U.S. Monday into Monday night, the
stalled front will propagate northward as a warm front. This
warm front will usher in more humid and warm air northward to
help fuel showers and a few thunderstorm farther north into northern
Virginia, Maryland and eastern West Virginia Monday into Monday
night.

The next storm system will move across the eastern Ohio Valley and
portions of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the storm system Tuesday. The storm is
expected to exit east and move offshore the East Coast Tuesday
night.

High pressure will usher in cooler and drier air into the region
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR tonight and Thursday. Could be a little fog at MRB and
CHO overnight into early Thursday morning. Chance of
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night except for
possible MVFR conditions near the CHO terminal. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest less than 5 knots Saturday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have droped below SCA values tonight and should stay below
through Thursday night. Chance of thunderstorms Friday along with
potential for SCA gusts ahead of cold front.

No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
northwest around 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots Saturday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291959
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A warm
front across Georgia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold
front wil move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is
expected to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Pretty spectular weather for the first days of summer courtesy of
high pressure building into the region from the Upper Midwest
which is creating northwest winds and dewpoints in the 50s across
the Mid Atlantic. Tonight should feel extremely comfortable with
lows in the 50s west of the Blue Ridge...60s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday is expected to be dry and comfortable with highs in the
mid 80s. There is a boundary over the Gulf States. There are
questions over how far north that will be able to progress...and
hence some models have become quite moist with POPs in the likely
category. These POPs seem higher than what they should be for the
weather pattern and time of the year. For now we`ll keep these in
the low chance category Thursday evening...with a better shot on
Friday...particularly in the eastern part of the area. 12Z Euro
shows a short wave coming through on Friday to begin July..and the
SREF severe parameter is showing possible thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm across the southern
half of our region Saturday through Sunday night with a stalled
front along the Virginia and North Carolina state line.

As a storm system develops along the western end of the front and
across portions of the Midwest U.S. Monday into Monday night, the
stalled front will propagate northward as a warm front. This
warm front will usher in more humid and warm air northward to
help fuel showers and a few thunderstorm farther north into northern
Virginia, Maryland and eastern West Virginia Monday into Monday
night.

The next storm system will move across the eastern Ohio Valley and
portions of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the storm system Tuesday. The storm is
expected to exit east and move offshore the East Coast Tuesday
night.

High pressure will usher in cooler and drier air into the region
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR tonight and Thursday. Chance of thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night except for
possible MVFR conditions near the CHO terminal. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest less than 5 knots Saturday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Spotty SCA gusts recently across much of the waters, so expanded
SCA to all zones. This is mainly due to mixing in NW flow behind
the system from yesterday and is mostly affecting near-shore
waters, with lighter winds further out. Winds expected to drop
below SCA values tonight. Chance of thunderstorms Friday.

No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
northwest around 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots Saturday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291957
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A warm
front across Georgia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold
front wil move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is
expected to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Pretty spectular weather for the first days of summer courtesy of
high pressure building into the region from the Upper Midwest
which is creating northwest winds and dewpoints in the 50s across
the Mid Atlantic. Tonight should feel extremely comfortable with
lows in the 50s west of the Blue Ridge...60s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday is expected to be dry and comfortable with highs in the
mid 80s. There is a boundary over the Gulf States. There are
questions over how far north that will be able to progress...and
hence some models have become quite moist with POPs in the likely
category. These POPs seem higher than what they should be for the
weather pattern and time of the year. For now we`ll keep these in
the low chance category Thursday evening...with a better shot on
Friday...particularly in the eastern part of the area. 12Z Euro
shows a short wave coming through on Friday to begin July..and the
SREF severe parameter is showing possible thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm across the southern
half of our region Saturday through Sunday night with a stalled
front along the Virginia and North Carolina state line.

As a storm system develops along the western end of the front and
across portions of the Midwest U.S. Monday into Monday night, the
stalled front will propagate northward as a warm front. This
warm front will usher in more humid and warm air northward to
help fuel showers and a few thunderstorm farther north into northern
Virginia, Maryland and eastern West Virginia Monday into Monday
night.

The next storm system will move across the eastern Ohio Valley and
portions of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the storm system Tuesday. The storm is
expected to exit east and move offshore the East Coast Tuesday
night.

High pressure will usher in cooler and drier air into the region
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR tonight and Thursday. Chance of thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night except for
possible MVFR conditions near the CHO terminal. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest less than 5 knots Saturday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Spotty SCA gusts recently across much of the waters, so expanded
SCA to all zones. This is mainly due to mixing in NW flow behind
the system from yesterday and is mostly affecting near-shore
waters, with lighter winds further out. Winds expected to drop
below SCA values tonight. Chance of thunderstorms Friday.

No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
northwest around 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots Saturday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291841
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A warm
front across Georgia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold
front wil move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is
expected to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

Pretty spectular weather for the first days of summer courtesy of
high pressure building into the region from the Upper Midwest
which is creating northwest winds and dewpoints in the 50s across
the Mid Atlantic. Tonight should feel extremely comfortable with
lows in the 50s west of the Blue Ridge...60s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Thursday is expected to be dry and comfortable with highs in the
mid 80s. There is a boundary over the Gulf States. There are
questions over how far north that will be able to progress...and
hence some models have become quite moist with POPs in the likely
category. These POPs seem higher than what they should be for the
weather pattern and time of the year. For now we`ll keep these in
the low chance category Thursday evening...with a better shot on
Friday...particularly in the eastern part of the area. 12Z Euro
shows a short wave coming through on Friday to begin July..and the
SREF severe parameter is showing possible thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm across the southern
half of our region Saturday through Sunday night with a stalled
front along the Virginia and North Carolina state line.

As a storm system develops along the western end of the front and
across portions of the Midwest U.S. Monday into Monday night, the
stalled front will propagate northward as a warm front. This
warm front will usher in more humid and warm air northward to
help fuel showers and a few thunderstorm farther north into northern
Virginia, Maryland and eastern West Virginia Monday into Monday
night.

The next storm system will move across the eastern Ohio Valley and
portions of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the storm system Tuesday. The storm is
expected to exit east and move offshore the East Coast Tuesday
night.

High pressure will usher in cooler and drier air into the region
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR tonight and Thursday. Chance of thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night except for
possible MVFR conditions near the CHO terminal. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest less than 5 knots Saturday
night.

&&

.MARINE...

In the Upper Potomac winds are gusting to around 20 knot. An SCA
has been issued for this. Winds expected to remain below SCA
values tonight. Chance of thunderstorms Friday.

No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
northwest around 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots Saturday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291841
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A warm
front across Georgia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold
front wil move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is
expected to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

Pretty spectular weather for the first days of summer courtesy of
high pressure building into the region from the Upper Midwest
which is creating northwest winds and dewpoints in the 50s across
the Mid Atlantic. Tonight should feel extremely comfortable with
lows in the 50s west of the Blue Ridge...60s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Thursday is expected to be dry and comfortable with highs in the
mid 80s. There is a boundary over the Gulf States. There are
questions over how far north that will be able to progress...and
hence some models have become quite moist with POPs in the likely
category. These POPs seem higher than what they should be for the
weather pattern and time of the year. For now we`ll keep these in
the low chance category Thursday evening...with a better shot on
Friday...particularly in the eastern part of the area. 12Z Euro
shows a short wave coming through on Friday to begin July..and the
SREF severe parameter is showing possible thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm across the southern
half of our region Saturday through Sunday night with a stalled
front along the Virginia and North Carolina state line.

As a storm system develops along the western end of the front and
across portions of the Midwest U.S. Monday into Monday night, the
stalled front will propagate northward as a warm front. This
warm front will usher in more humid and warm air northward to
help fuel showers and a few thunderstorm farther north into northern
Virginia, Maryland and eastern West Virginia Monday into Monday
night.

The next storm system will move across the eastern Ohio Valley and
portions of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the storm system Tuesday. The storm is
expected to exit east and move offshore the East Coast Tuesday
night.

High pressure will usher in cooler and drier air into the region
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR tonight and Thursday. Chance of thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions expected Saturday and Saturday night except for
possible MVFR conditions near the CHO terminal. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest less than 5 knots Saturday
night.

&&

.MARINE...

In the Upper Potomac winds are gusting to around 20 knot. An SCA
has been issued for this. Winds expected to remain below SCA
values tonight. Chance of thunderstorms Friday.

No marine hazards expected Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
northwest around 10 knots Saturday. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots Saturday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291426
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1026 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area today. A warm front across
Gerogia will lift north Thursday into Friday. A cold front wil
move into the region Friday night. A frontal boundary is expected
to hover over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

High pressure over WI will build eastward into the region.
A decent shortwave will round the base of an upper level trough,
which combined with moderate instability, could trigger isolated
showers/thunderstorms late in the day. These will diminish after
sunset, with dry weather expected tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

The latest model suite continues to suggest that the boundary to
our south will then slowly lift north Thursday night into Friday
as the surface high exits this area. With the boundary placed just
to the south, could see isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly
over southern fringes of the CWA during the day, then increasing
to the north Thurs night as the front lifts northward. Southerly
flow increases during this time, aiding in both warm air and
moisture advection. Models suggesting a bulls eye of instability
mainly east of the Blue Ridge and south of the immediate DC Metro
area, so will maintain the chance PoPs there. Right now the best
chance for any stronger storm looks to be south of the area,
closer to the boundary and where there is stronger deep layer
shear, but cannot rule out a stray stronger storm moving into the
southern portions of the area Thurs evening.

Precip ongoing Thurs night, though shifting more to the east and
impacting mainly the eastern half of the CWA on Friday.
Instability not as impressive as the previous day, but with the
approaching cold front, do see higher deep layer shear values.
Will continue with the chance for thunderstorms and then showers
through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Latest guidance suggests that cold front will have sufficient push
to clear most if not all of the forecast area by Saturday morning,
and remain to the south through Sunday. If that were to hold, then
the area would have a dry weekend...both in terms of precipitation
and humidity. May still hedge bets a pinch, as this is the first
cycle suggesting something this definitive (although the 28th 12z
cycle did start the trend).

The stalled frontal boundary will start to drift northward again as
a warm front on Monday. As a result, the corridor of potential
thunderstorms will shift north across the area as well, with a focus
on Monday afternoon and evening.

This pattern likely will continue into Tuesday, as there will be no
catalyst to dislodge the stalled frontal boundary at that time.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions for the TAF period. VFR conditions Thurs and Friday
outside of any thunderstorms.

At this time, there are no forseen flight restrictions for Saturday
or Sunday. A frontal boundary will linger south of the terminals, so
a change in position would result in a more pessimistic forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions on all waters through Friday. Thursday evening
and during the day Friday thunderstorms may impact the waters,
especially the lower Chesapeake Bay.

At this time, winds are not anticipated to exceed Small Craft
Advisory thresholds through this weekend. However, that will be
contingent on the strength and progress of a cold front clearing
the waters. If it is well- defined enough and far enough south,
then mixing would be favorable in northwest flow to have some
gusts coming close during the afternoon. Not enough certainty to
include in forecasts right now, but it`s certainly something to
keep in mind.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...APS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290732
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
332 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will clear the region early this morning before
stalling over the Carolinas. The front will lift north as a warm
front Thursday into Friday with the next cold front moving into
the region Friday night.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front slowly working south early this morning across the
forecast area, with the expectation it should be to the south after
12Z. Precip has cleared the CWA mostly, with isolated showers
popping across the Bay. Cannot rule out a stray shower over the next
couple of hours as the front moves through.

For today, high pressure over the Central Plains will build eastward
into the region. Generally expecting dry conditions though a decent
shortwave will round the base of a persisting upper level trough,
which combined with moderate instability, could trigger isolated
showers/thunderstorms late in the day. Nothing severe and with drier
air in place, no further flooding concerns. Any diurnal
showers/thunderstorms that develop will diminish after sunset, with
dry weather expected tonight.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The previously mentioned cold front becomes nearly stationary by
Thursday morning, lingering over the Carolinas for most of the day.
The latest model suite continues to suggest that the boundary will
then slowly lift north Thursday night into Friday as the surface
high exits this area. With the boundary placed just to the south,
could see isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over southern
fringes of the CWA during the day, then increasing to the north
Thurs night as the front lifts northward. Southerly flow increases
during this time, aiding in both warm air and moisture advection.
Models suggesting a bulls eye of instability mainly east of the Blue
Ridge and south of the immediate DC Metro area, so will maintain the
chance PoPs there. Right now the best chance for any stronger storm
looks to be south of the area, closer to the boundary and where
there is stronger deep layer shear, but cannot rule out a stray
stronger storm moving into the southern portions of the area Thurs
evening.

Precip on going Thurs night, though shifting more to the
east and impacting mainly the eastern half of the CWA on Friday.
Instability not as impressive as the previous day, but with the
approaching cold front, do see higher deep layer shear values. Will
continue with the chance for thunderstorms and then showers through
Friday night.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest guidance suggests that cold front will have sufficient push
to clear most if not all of the forecast area by Saturday morning,
and remain to the south through Sunday. If that were to hold, then
the area would have a dry weekend...both in terms of precipitation
and humidity. May still hedge bets a pinch, as this is the first
cycle suggesting something this definitive (although the 28th 12z
cycle did start the trend).

The stalled frontal boundary will start to drift northward again as
a warm front on Monday. As a result, the corridor of potential
thunderstorms will shift north across the area as well, with a focus
on Monday afternoon and evening.

This pattern likely will continue into Tuesday, as there will be no
catalyst to dislodge the stalled frontal boundary at that time.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions for the TAF period. Winds NW, increasing
mid day with peak heating. Cannot rule out an occasional gust 15-20
kts this afternoon. Winds diminish tonight and will remain generally
less than 10 kts through Friday. VFR conditions Thurs and Friday
outside any thunderstorms; sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds with
any storm that does impact the terminals.

At this time, there are no forseen flight restrictions for Saturday
or Sunday. A frontal boundary will linger south of the terminals, so
a change in position would result in a more pessimistic forecast.
&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions on all waters through Friday. Thunderstorms may
impact the waters, especially the lower Chesapeake Bay, which could
bring gusty winds Thursday evening and during the day Friday.

At this time, winds are not anticipated to exceed Small Craft
Advisory thresholds through this weekend.  However, that will be
contingent on the strength and progress of a cold front clearing the
waters.  If it is well-defined enough and far enough south, then
mixing would be favorable in northwest flow to have some gusts
coming close during the afternoon. Not enough certainty to include
in forecasts right now, but it`s certainly something to keep in
mind.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...Sears/HTS
MARINE...Sears/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290732
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
332 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will clear the region early this morning before
stalling over the Carolinas. The front will lift north as a warm
front Thursday into Friday with the next cold front moving into
the region Friday night.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front slowly working south early this morning across the
forecast area, with the expectation it should be to the south after
12Z. Precip has cleared the CWA mostly, with isolated showers
popping across the Bay. Cannot rule out a stray shower over the next
couple of hours as the front moves through.

For today, high pressure over the Central Plains will build eastward
into the region. Generally expecting dry conditions though a decent
shortwave will round the base of a persisting upper level trough,
which combined with moderate instability, could trigger isolated
showers/thunderstorms late in the day. Nothing severe and with drier
air in place, no further flooding concerns. Any diurnal
showers/thunderstorms that develop will diminish after sunset, with
dry weather expected tonight.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The previously mentioned cold front becomes nearly stationary by
Thursday morning, lingering over the Carolinas for most of the day.
The latest model suite continues to suggest that the boundary will
then slowly lift north Thursday night into Friday as the surface
high exits this area. With the boundary placed just to the south,
could see isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over southern
fringes of the CWA during the day, then increasing to the north
Thurs night as the front lifts northward. Southerly flow increases
during this time, aiding in both warm air and moisture advection.
Models suggesting a bulls eye of instability mainly east of the Blue
Ridge and south of the immediate DC Metro area, so will maintain the
chance PoPs there. Right now the best chance for any stronger storm
looks to be south of the area, closer to the boundary and where
there is stronger deep layer shear, but cannot rule out a stray
stronger storm moving into the southern portions of the area Thurs
evening.

Precip on going Thurs night, though shifting more to the
east and impacting mainly the eastern half of the CWA on Friday.
Instability not as impressive as the previous day, but with the
approaching cold front, do see higher deep layer shear values. Will
continue with the chance for thunderstorms and then showers through
Friday night.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest guidance suggests that cold front will have sufficient push
to clear most if not all of the forecast area by Saturday morning,
and remain to the south through Sunday. If that were to hold, then
the area would have a dry weekend...both in terms of precipitation
and humidity. May still hedge bets a pinch, as this is the first
cycle suggesting something this definitive (although the 28th 12z
cycle did start the trend).

The stalled frontal boundary will start to drift northward again as
a warm front on Monday. As a result, the corridor of potential
thunderstorms will shift north across the area as well, with a focus
on Monday afternoon and evening.

This pattern likely will continue into Tuesday, as there will be no
catalyst to dislodge the stalled frontal boundary at that time.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions for the TAF period. Winds NW, increasing
mid day with peak heating. Cannot rule out an occasional gust 15-20
kts this afternoon. Winds diminish tonight and will remain generally
less than 10 kts through Friday. VFR conditions Thurs and Friday
outside any thunderstorms; sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds with
any storm that does impact the terminals.

At this time, there are no forseen flight restrictions for Saturday
or Sunday. A frontal boundary will linger south of the terminals, so
a change in position would result in a more pessimistic forecast.
&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions on all waters through Friday. Thunderstorms may
impact the waters, especially the lower Chesapeake Bay, which could
bring gusty winds Thursday evening and during the day Friday.

At this time, winds are not anticipated to exceed Small Craft
Advisory thresholds through this weekend.  However, that will be
contingent on the strength and progress of a cold front clearing the
waters.  If it is well-defined enough and far enough south, then
mixing would be favorable in northwest flow to have some gusts
coming close during the afternoon. Not enough certainty to include
in forecasts right now, but it`s certainly something to keep in
mind.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...Sears/HTS
MARINE...Sears/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290327
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1127 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
Severe thunderstorm watch is cancelled.

Overnight, the upper trough will move through from the west looks
to continue to promote isolated showers...mainly over northern
portions of the area. This will all be south of the area by
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading
thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly
drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel
confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and
Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front over the waters will push south Wednesday and
returns north late this week, with a cold front being slow to push
into the area this weekend. In general, sub-SCA conditions
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding concerns through into the early morning for
Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties from earlier
heavy rain. Flood warnings continue.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...BAJ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290327
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1127 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
Severe thunderstorm watch is cancelled.

Overnight, the upper trough will move through from the west looks
to continue to promote isolated showers...mainly over northern
portions of the area. This will all be south of the area by
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading
thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly
drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel
confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and
Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front over the waters will push south Wednesday and
returns north late this week, with a cold front being slow to push
into the area this weekend. In general, sub-SCA conditions
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding concerns through into the early morning for
Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties from earlier
heavy rain. Flood warnings continue.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...BAJ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290130
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
930 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
Expanded the severe thunderstorm watch to the rest of the
southeastern zones and most of the waters and extended until
midnight. Balt- wash metro areas have been cancelled from the
watch as expected.

Overnight, the upper trough will move through and may promote
isolated showers over the area. This will all be south of the area
by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading
thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly
drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel
confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and
Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Ongoing thunderstorms for southern MD waters. Cold Front pushes
south Wednesday and returns north late this week, with a cold
front being slow to push into the area this weekend. In general,
sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281900
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area this evening and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Persistent cloud cover associated with surface trough/theta-e
ridge is eroding from the west. A cold front is crossing the
Appalachians, with convection firing out ahead of it. Southerly
flow is only present in the low levels, and the best shortwave
energy will be across PA, so expect decreasing coverage with
southern extent. MLCAPE ahead of the line is around 1500 J/kg with
bulk shear of 25-30 kt. The lingering cloud cover and weak mid-
level lapse rates (in addition to the weak forcing) will be
limiting factors to updraft development, but a moisture-rich
environment exists east of the mountains, and some organized
clusters may be able to form and present a gusty wind threat. The
setup in addition to hi-res guidance suggests this is most likely
east of the Blue Ridge and across the metros into southern MD late
this afternoon into this evening.

An axis of higher PWATs around 1.75 inches will be located across
eastern areas. Combined with storm motions which could be around
20 kt or less, stronger/slow moving thunderstorm clusters could
produce locally heavy rain and possible urban flooding in normally
vulnerable areas. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but
am not expecting widespread issues given 1-hr FFG values are
generally well above 2 inches outside of the urban areas. Will
relegate this to an HWO mention given marginal threat.

The showers and thunderstorms will likely be exiting the area
around midnight, but could persist a little longer in southern MD.
Some patchy fog could occur depending on how quickly drier air
moves in, but did not feel confident enough to put it in the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main concern for the late afternoon and evening hours will be
thunderstorms along a cold front. Clusters of storms may organize
by the time they reach the Balt/Wash metro, and have thus included
a TSRA mention at these terminals. However, there could be gaps in
between storms with little impact. Brief gusty winds and heavy
rain will be possible. Wind shift to NW will occur late this
evening.

A cold front will cross tonight. Depending on how quickly drier
air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel confident
enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and Thursday night,
although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
S to SE flow until late this evening overnight when a cold front
passes. There may be a brief window near frontal passage where
winds could approach SCA levels. However, 15 kt or less expected
outside thunderstorms, which will be crossing the waters this
evening. SMWs are possible. Front pushes south Wednesday and
returns north late this week, with a cold front being slow to push
into the area this weekend. In general, sub-SCA conditions
expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281359
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
959 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough lingers over the region today with a cold front
swinging through later today before stalling to the south. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front
crosses the area Saturday, stalling over the southern Mid-
Atlantic Sunday and eventually pushes south Monday as high
pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface trough and elevated instability are causing continuing
showers over southern MD this morning. Locally heavy rain is
possible, but impacts will likely be limited to ponding water on
roadways.

Later this afternoon, the focus will shift to a cold front moving
in from the west and the potential for strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rain. Although the main energy of the approaching
upper level trough looks to remain north of the Mason-Dixon, height
falls and rich low level moisture will help storms initiate along
the front...looking to be mid to late afternoon at this time. This
environment will have MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/Kg mainly east
of the Blue Ridge. Strictly mixing the 12Z IAD RAOB would result
in higher SBCAPE values, so this alone could lead to some stronger
storms down the I-95 corridor through the DC metro. However, the
strongest CAPE/shear overlap is expected generally to the NE of
DC.

The axis of higher PWATs will be located east of the main
thunderstorm development. Combined with storm motions which could
be around 20 kt or less, stronger thunderstorm clusters could
produce locally heavy rain and possible urban flooding in
normally vulnerable areas. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled
out, but not expecting widespread issues given 1-hr FFG values
are generally well above 2 inches outside of the urban areas.
Will monitor the need to include a mention in the HWO.

The showers and thunderstorms will push to the north and east by the
second half of tonight as the cold front sinks south and stalls just
after clearing the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front is positioned just south of the area by Wed morning
as the upper level trough remains in place extending down into the
Mid-Atlantic. Not anticipating much movement of the front Wed with
little change in the upper level pattern. The front should be
cleared enough that the precip stays south. By Wed night and heading
into Thursday, the trough lifts to the north, with the frontal
boundary in turn lifting back to the north slowly. Depending on how
exactly far north the boundary pushes will dictate how far north the
precip reaches on Thursday. Right now on the conservative side with
slight chance PoPs to the Mason-Dixon and chance further into
Central Virginia. Models suggest decent shortwave energy swinging
through around the base of the trough which will aid in afternoon
development. At the moment, not expecting any stronger or severe
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Continuing chance for unsettled weather to end the work week and
heading into the weekend with one frontal boundary lingering to
the south and then another cold front slowly moving through the
region during the weekend. The previously mentioned upper level
trough, though not as deep as earlier in the week, remains over
the Northeast and thus will do little to move the nearly stalled
boundary over the southern portions of the forecast area. Will
keep chance PoPs in, especially over eastern areas closer to the
surface boundary for Friday, with drying conditions west of the
Blue Ridge during the day and into Friday night. The next cold
front approaches Friday night but with the flow aloft attempting
to become more zonal, expecting a slow southward progression of an
almost east-west front during the Saturday and into Sunday as the
boundary finally stalls over southern Virginia Sunday. Depending
on exactly where the front stalls will lead to the extent of the
precip lingering over the region, but general consensus amongst
the 00Z models does show a strong enough high pressure building
south Monday to nudge the front far enough to the south and east
to taper off PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR conditions gradually improving, holding on longest from
DC N & E. By midday, expecting VFR through the TAF period outside
of any thunderstorm impacts. Activity this afternoon and evening
will be quite scattered in nature and possibly in two different
rounds, so not including as more than VCTS in TAFs for the time
being; subsequent TAFs will fine tune the timing. Most likely
place to include TSRA mention will be Baltimore area. Winds 10
kts or less shifting from S-SE to SW and eventually becoming NW
behind the frontal passage tonight.

VFR conditions tonight through Thursday. Winds light generally less
than 10 kts through the end of the week. Possible sub-VFR
conditions with any showers or thunderstorms Thursday night
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to be sub-SCA through this afternoon,
however there may be a brief window on either side of cold frontal
passage this evening where winds may approach SCA levels. There
will also be a threat for organized storms early this evening
which could produce strong winds. After the front, sub-SCA
expected through the end of the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears/ADS
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...Sears
AVIATION...Sears/ADS
MARINE...Sears/ADS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280718
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
318 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough lingers over the region this morning with a cold
front swinging through later today before stalling to the south.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The next cold
front crosses the area Saturday, stalling over the southern Mid-
Atlantic Sunday and eventually pushes south Monday as high
pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface obs early this morning showing surface trough still in place
and producing showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over eastern
areas of the forecast area. The storms are slowly moving east and
are expected to persist through daybreak before mostly clearing the
area. Moisture lower levels in place from recent rains and dew
points around 70 so expecting patchy fog to develop early this
morning especially where breaks in the clouds occur.

For today, we will shift our focus from heavy rain/flooding concerns
over western portions of the forecast area to the east and the
potential for stronger thunderstorms. A cold front will swing
through later today, providing the needed forcing at the surface in
tandem with forcing aloft associated with a digging upper level
trough into the Mid-Atlantic. The main energy of the trough looks to
remain north of the Mason-Dixon, but cannot rule out some stronger
storms going up over the Baltimore metro area late afternoon into
this evening. While the southerly flow isnt strong ahead of the
front, it is persistent in the warm air and moisture advection,
resulting in MLCAPE between 1000-1500 J/Kg mainly east of the Blue
Ridge. This combined with increased deep layer shear could produce
isolated stronger storms by this evening, again mainly DC metro to
the east. The axis of higher PWATs will shift eastward ahead of the
main thunderstorm development. The heavy rain this morning has led
to a slight decrease in flash flood guidance over the I-95 corridor,
so while not expecting the extent of flash flooding threat as we saw
on Monday, cannot rule out any stronger thunderstorm producing brief
heavy rain and possible urban flooding in normally vulnerable
areas.

The showers and thunderstorms will push to the north and east by the
second half of tonight as the cold front sinks south and stalls just
after clearing the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front is positioned just south of the area by Wed morning
as the upper level trough remains in place extending down into the
Mid-Atlantic. Not anticipating much movement of the front Wed with
little change in the upper level pattern. The front should be
cleared enough that the precip stays south. By Wed night and heading
into Thursday, the trough lifts to the north, with the frontal
boundary in turn lifting back to the north slowly. Depending on how
exactly far north the boundary pushes will dictate how far north the
precip reaches on Thursday. Right now on the conservative side with
slight chance PoPs to the Mason-Dixon and chance further into
Central Virginia. Models suggest decent shortwave energy swinging
through around the base of the trough which will aid in afternoon
development. At the moment, not expecting any stronger or severe
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Continuing chance for unsettled weather to end the work week and
heading into the weekend with one frontal boundary lingering to
the south and then another cold front slowly moving through the
region during the weekend. The previously mentioned upper level
trough, though not as deep as earlier in the week, remains over
the Northeast and thus will do little to move the nearly stalled
boundary over the southern portions of the forecast area. Will
keep chance PoPs in, especially over eastern areas closer to the
surface boundary for Friday, with drying conditions west of the
Blue Ridge during the day and into Friday night. The next cold
front approaches Friday night but with the flow aloft attempting
to become more zonal, expecting a slow southward progression of an
almost east-west front during the Saturday and into Sunday as the
boundary finally stalls over southern Virginia Sunday. Depending
on exactly where the front stalls will lead to the extent of the
precip lingering over the region, but general consensus amongst
the 00Z models does show a strong enough high pressure building
south Monday to nudge the front far enough to the south and east
to taper off PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Varying conditions early this morning with showers and
thunderstorms impacting the DC/Balt TAF sites and fog beginning to
develop to the west. Any sub-VFR conditions will improve to VFR by
mid morning and will generally be VFR then through the TAF period
outside of any thunderstorm impacts. Activity this afternoon and
evening will be quite scattered in nature and possibly in two
different rounds, so not including as more than VCTS in TAFs for the
time being; subsequent TAFs will fine tune the timing. Winds 10 kts
or less shifting from S-SE to SW and eventually becoming NW behind
the frontal passage tonight.

VFR conditions tonight through Thursday. Winds light generally less
than 10 kts through the end of the week. Possible sub-VFR
conditions with any showers or thunderstorms Thursday night
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for portions of the Chesapeake Bay with
occasional gusts to 20 knots on going. Conditions are expected to
become sub-SCA on all waters after daybreak and remain as such
through the end of the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ533-534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...Sears
AVIATION...Sears
MARINE...Sears




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