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000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251318
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY
AROUND 70 DEGREES THIS MEMORIAL DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251318
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY
AROUND 70 DEGREES THIS MEMORIAL DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE EAST OF VA
THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONLY SOME PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT TEMPERATURE
FALLS. ANY ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURE...WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE TYPICAL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DROP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS.
HOWEVER ON THE WHOLE...LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THAT IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST FASTER...ENDING UP OVER OUR
REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER EAST BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND WARM AIR ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL
INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

SKIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH CIRRUS AND A FEW
CUMULUS BEING THE MAIN FEATURES. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS
ANY CONVECTION AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY DESPITE THE INCREASED
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD WHICH
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME
DISSIPATING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES AREAS CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE S-SW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MD. AT THIS
TIME...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STAY SUB-SVR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AND
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. HIGH PWATS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER IN PARTS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SOME DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES WITH MIDDLE
80S EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HENCE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-
STRONG... APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE SCATTERED FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COULD BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING
THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT BECOME MORE
ISOLATED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. DESPITE INCREASED DEW
POINTS...THINK THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL TOO DRY
FOR ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. ALSO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND MAY
STAY IN PLACE. WINDS BETWEEN 180-230 DEG WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. THESE GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. CU SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN INVOF TAF
SITES MONDAY...WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT IF THEY DO FORM.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB/CHO.
-SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EAST OF VA IS PROMOTING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MD BAY...AND HAVE RELAXED IN THE PAST
HOUR. HAVE A SCA CONTINUING IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
IF THE TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL AND SQUEEZE IN A
PERIOD OF NO HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER THE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND ALLOW S/SW WINDS TO COMMONLY
GUST TO 20-25 KT. A SCA NOW GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AT 10
AM. THE SCA IS WHITTLED BACK TO PORTIONS OF THE BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING MAY CONTINUE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED OR EXTENDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND SOME MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBYS
ON THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/HAS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE EAST OF VA
THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONLY SOME PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT TEMPERATURE
FALLS. ANY ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURE...WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE TYPICAL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DROP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS.
HOWEVER ON THE WHOLE...LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THAT IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST FASTER...ENDING UP OVER OUR
REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER EAST BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND WARM AIR ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL
INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

SKIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH CIRRUS AND A FEW
CUMULUS BEING THE MAIN FEATURES. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS
ANY CONVECTION AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY DESPITE THE INCREASED
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD WHICH
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME
DISSIPATING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES AREAS CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE S-SW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MD. AT THIS
TIME...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STAY SUB-SVR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AND
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. HIGH PWATS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER IN PARTS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SOME DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES WITH MIDDLE
80S EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HENCE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-
STRONG... APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE SCATTERED FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COULD BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING
THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT BECOME MORE
ISOLATED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. DESPITE INCREASED DEW
POINTS...THINK THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL TOO DRY
FOR ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. ALSO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND MAY
STAY IN PLACE. WINDS BETWEEN 180-230 DEG WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. THESE GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. CU SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN INVOF TAF
SITES MONDAY...WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT IF THEY DO FORM.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB/CHO.
-SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EAST OF VA IS PROMOTING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MD BAY...AND HAVE RELAXED IN THE PAST
HOUR. HAVE A SCA CONTINUING IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
IF THE TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL AND SQUEEZE IN A
PERIOD OF NO HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER THE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND ALLOW S/SW WINDS TO COMMONLY
GUST TO 20-25 KT. A SCA NOW GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AT 10
AM. THE SCA IS WHITTLED BACK TO PORTIONS OF THE BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING MAY CONTINUE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED OR EXTENDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND SOME MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBYS
ON THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/HAS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE EAST OF VA
THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONLY SOME PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT TEMPERATURE
FALLS. ANY ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURE...WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE TYPICAL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DROP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS.
HOWEVER ON THE WHOLE...LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THAT IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST FASTER...ENDING UP OVER OUR
REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER EAST BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND WARM AIR ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL
INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

SKIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH CIRRUS AND A FEW
CUMULUS BEING THE MAIN FEATURES. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS
ANY CONVECTION AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY DESPITE THE INCREASED
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD WHICH
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME
DISSIPATING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES AREAS CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE S-SW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MD. AT THIS
TIME...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STAY SUB-SVR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AND
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. HIGH PWATS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER IN PARTS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SOME DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES WITH MIDDLE
80S EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HENCE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-
STRONG... APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE SCATTERED FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COULD BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING
THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT BECOME MORE
ISOLATED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. DESPITE INCREASED DEW
POINTS...THINK THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL TOO DRY
FOR ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. ALSO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND MAY
STAY IN PLACE. WINDS BETWEEN 180-230 DEG WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. THESE GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. CU SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN INVOF TAF
SITES MONDAY...WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT IF THEY DO FORM.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB/CHO.
-SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EAST OF VA IS PROMOTING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MD BAY...AND HAVE RELAXED IN THE PAST
HOUR. HAVE A SCA CONTINUING IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
IF THE TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL AND SQUEEZE IN A
PERIOD OF NO HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER THE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND ALLOW S/SW WINDS TO COMMONLY
GUST TO 20-25 KT. A SCA NOW GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AT 10
AM. THE SCA IS WHITTLED BACK TO PORTIONS OF THE BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING MAY CONTINUE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED OR EXTENDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND SOME MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBYS
ON THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/HAS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE EAST OF VA
THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONLY SOME PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT TEMPERATURE
FALLS. ANY ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURE...WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE TYPICAL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DROP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS.
HOWEVER ON THE WHOLE...LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THAT IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST FASTER...ENDING UP OVER OUR
REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER EAST BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND WARM AIR ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL
INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

SKIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH CIRRUS AND A FEW
CUMULUS BEING THE MAIN FEATURES. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS
ANY CONVECTION AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY DESPITE THE INCREASED
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD WHICH
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME
DISSIPATING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES AREAS CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE S-SW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MD. AT THIS
TIME...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STAY SUB-SVR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AND
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. HIGH PWATS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER IN PARTS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SOME DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES WITH MIDDLE
80S EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HENCE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-
STRONG... APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE SCATTERED FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COULD BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING
THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT BECOME MORE
ISOLATED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. DESPITE INCREASED DEW
POINTS...THINK THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL TOO DRY
FOR ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. ALSO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND MAY
STAY IN PLACE. WINDS BETWEEN 180-230 DEG WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. THESE GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. CU SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN INVOF TAF
SITES MONDAY...WITH BASES OF 5-6 KFT IF THEY DO FORM.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB/CHO.
-SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EAST OF VA IS PROMOTING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MD BAY...AND HAVE RELAXED IN THE PAST
HOUR. HAVE A SCA CONTINUING IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
IF THE TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL AND SQUEEZE IN A
PERIOD OF NO HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER THE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND ALLOW S/SW WINDS TO COMMONLY
GUST TO 20-25 KT. A SCA NOW GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AT 10
AM. THE SCA IS WHITTLED BACK TO PORTIONS OF THE BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING MAY CONTINUE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED OR EXTENDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND SOME MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBYS
ON THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

.......RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/HAS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PROMOTE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA...WITH A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST IN COLORADO AND
ANOTHER WELL TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ALOFT...A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A CLOSED
LOW TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST FASTER...ENDING UP OVER OUR
REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER EAST BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND WARM AIR ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA.

THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED TREND OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 50S AND 60S TONIGHT AND
RISING WELL INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WHICH ARE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CURRENTLY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREA THIS EVENING AND
SKIES MAY CLOUD OVER FOR A TIME AS A RESULT.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP/ADVECT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND SKIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS BEING THE MAIN FEATURES. THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY DESPITE
THE INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20 MPH LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD WHICH
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME
DISSIPATING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES AREAS CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE S-SW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MD. AT THIS
TIME...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STAY SUB-SVR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AND
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. HIGH PWATS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER IN PARTS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SOME DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES WITH MIDDLE
80S EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HENCE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-
STRONG... APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE SCATTERED FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COULD BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING
THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT BECOME MORE
ISOLATED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS VERY LIKELY THRU THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THERE WILL BE SOME CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PROBABLY SOME ON MONDAY BUT LIKELY NOT AS MUCH. THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FOG
FORMATION DESPITE INCREASING HUMIDITY...WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS LIKELY.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB/CHO.
-SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON SO
HAVE KEPT SCA IN PLACE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WE GET FURTHER FROM ITS CENTER AND THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY RELAXING A BIT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS MOST WATERS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE ALSO NOT ALTERED THE SCA IN THIS TIME
FRAME EITHER. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REMAINING
WATERS IF SOME OF THE PREDICTED GUSTS MATERIALIZE BUT NOT
CONFIDENT YET. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED OR EXTENDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND SOME MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBYS
ON THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-
     541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PROMOTE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA...WITH A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST IN COLORADO AND
ANOTHER WELL TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ALOFT...A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A CLOSED
LOW TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST FASTER...ENDING UP OVER OUR
REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER EAST BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND WARM AIR ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA.

THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED TREND OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 50S AND 60S TONIGHT AND
RISING WELL INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WHICH ARE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CURRENTLY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREA THIS EVENING AND
SKIES MAY CLOUD OVER FOR A TIME AS A RESULT.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP/ADVECT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND SKIES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS BEING THE MAIN FEATURES. THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY DESPITE
THE INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20 MPH LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD WHICH
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME
DISSIPATING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES AREAS CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE S-SW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MD. AT THIS
TIME...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE WEAK AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STAY SUB-SVR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AND
SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. HIGH PWATS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER IN PARTS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SOME DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES WITH MIDDLE
80S EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HENCE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-
STRONG... APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE SCATTERED FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COULD BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING
THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT BECOME MORE
ISOLATED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS VERY LIKELY THRU THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THERE WILL BE SOME CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PROBABLY SOME ON MONDAY BUT LIKELY NOT AS MUCH. THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FOG
FORMATION DESPITE INCREASING HUMIDITY...WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS LIKELY.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB/CHO.
-SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON SO
HAVE KEPT SCA IN PLACE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WE GET FURTHER FROM ITS CENTER AND THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY RELAXING A BIT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS MOST WATERS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE ALSO NOT ALTERED THE SCA IN THIS TIME
FRAME EITHER. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REMAINING
WATERS IF SOME OF THE PREDICTED GUSTS MATERIALIZE BUT NOT
CONFIDENT YET. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED OR EXTENDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND SOME MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBYS
ON THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-
     541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 241435
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU EXPECTED MID DAY WITH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW MODELS HINT AT A SHOWER IN
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE ITS OVERDONE
AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CU MAY RESULT IN
BROKEN TOTAL SKY COVER LATER ON SO NUDGED UP SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE BAY WITH POSSIBLE CHANNELING
IN THE SLY FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT.
PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTR DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON
ALL WATERS BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...LASTING INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-
     541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...RCM/BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241435
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU EXPECTED MID DAY WITH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW MODELS HINT AT A SHOWER IN
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE ITS OVERDONE
AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CU MAY RESULT IN
BROKEN TOTAL SKY COVER LATER ON SO NUDGED UP SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE BAY WITH POSSIBLE CHANNELING
IN THE SLY FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT.
PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTR DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON
ALL WATERS BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...LASTING INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-
     541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...RCM/BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 241435
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU EXPECTED MID DAY WITH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW MODELS HINT AT A SHOWER IN
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE ITS OVERDONE
AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CU MAY RESULT IN
BROKEN TOTAL SKY COVER LATER ON SO NUDGED UP SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE BAY WITH POSSIBLE CHANNELING
IN THE SLY FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT.
PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTR DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON
ALL WATERS BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...LASTING INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-
     541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...RCM/BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 241435
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU EXPECTED MID DAY WITH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW MODELS HINT AT A SHOWER IN
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE ITS OVERDONE
AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CU MAY RESULT IN
BROKEN TOTAL SKY COVER LATER ON SO NUDGED UP SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE BAY WITH POSSIBLE CHANNELING
IN THE SLY FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT.
PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTR DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON
ALL WATERS BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...LASTING INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-
     541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...RCM/BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 241435
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU EXPECTED MID DAY WITH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW MODELS HINT AT A SHOWER IN
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE ITS OVERDONE
AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CU MAY RESULT IN
BROKEN TOTAL SKY COVER LATER ON SO NUDGED UP SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE BAY WITH POSSIBLE CHANNELING
IN THE SLY FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT.
PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTR DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON
ALL WATERS BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...LASTING INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-
     541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...RCM/BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 241435
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU EXPECTED MID DAY WITH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW MODELS HINT AT A SHOWER IN
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE ITS OVERDONE
AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CU MAY RESULT IN
BROKEN TOTAL SKY COVER LATER ON SO NUDGED UP SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE BAY WITH POSSIBLE CHANNELING
IN THE SLY FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT.
PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTR DAYBREAK MON MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON
ALL WATERS BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...LASTING INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532-533-537-
     541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...RCM/BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 240712
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU PSBL MID DAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU THIS MORNING. PSBL
CHANNELING ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE SLY FLOW COULD RESULT
IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS
SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT. PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT
EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY AFTR DAYBREAK MON
MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BUT THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...LASTING
INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532-533-537-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 240712
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU PSBL MID DAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU THIS MORNING. PSBL
CHANNELING ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE SLY FLOW COULD RESULT
IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS
SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT. PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT
EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY AFTR DAYBREAK MON
MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BUT THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...LASTING
INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532-533-537-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 240712
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU PSBL MID DAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU THIS MORNING. PSBL
CHANNELING ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE SLY FLOW COULD RESULT
IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS
SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT. PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT
EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY AFTR DAYBREAK MON
MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BUT THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...LASTING
INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532-533-537-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 240712
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY...KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WX THRU THE DAY AND IN FACT HEADING INTO MONDAY. WAA
ON THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL
ABV NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS INCHING INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT CU PSBL MID DAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
SPLITTING THE CWA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP THE DRY WX
PERSISTING THRU MON AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU MON NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS STAYING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MON WITH STRONG WAA PUSHING 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF HEATING...PUSHING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DECENT MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S PSBL LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH WINDS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL. CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF PCPN
OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEKEND.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ROTATE THROUGH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTR 14/15Z FROM THE S-SW...GENERALLY STAYING
LESS THAN 10 KTS. KBWI MIGHT BACK TO 150-160 BY THIS
AFTN...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER SITES STAY 170-200 THRU THE PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS MON-MON NIGHT. INCRSG SLY FLOW MON...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTR 15-16Z AND LASTING UNTIL 22-00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU THIS MORNING. PSBL
CHANNELING ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE SLY FLOW COULD RESULT
IN GUSTS 15-20 KTS...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCA BEGINNING AT 16Z. THIS
SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT. PSBL LULL AROUND 12Z MON...BUT
EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY AFTR DAYBREAK MON
MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BUT THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. WILL ISSUE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...LASTING
INTO MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532-533-537-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 240112
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT UNDER A WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...AND ONLY SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S...WITH 30S
IN THE N...TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WHILE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...MANY AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS (MID-UPPER 40S)...WHILE MID RANGE ELEVATIONS
(UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INVERSION) AND URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S.

WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO CURRENT
READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE JUST YET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
LOW LEVELS SATURATING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDS...MRB AND CHO WOULD
STAND THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FEEL THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 6 KFT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

WIND GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 240112
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT UNDER A WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...AND ONLY SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S...WITH 30S
IN THE N...TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WHILE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...MANY AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS (MID-UPPER 40S)...WHILE MID RANGE ELEVATIONS
(UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INVERSION) AND URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S.

WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO CURRENT
READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE JUST YET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
LOW LEVELS SATURATING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDS...MRB AND CHO WOULD
STAND THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FEEL THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 6 KFT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

WIND GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 240112
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT UNDER A WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...AND ONLY SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S...WITH 30S
IN THE N...TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WHILE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...MANY AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS (MID-UPPER 40S)...WHILE MID RANGE ELEVATIONS
(UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INVERSION) AND URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S.

WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO CURRENT
READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE JUST YET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
LOW LEVELS SATURATING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDS...MRB AND CHO WOULD
STAND THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FEEL THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 6 KFT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

WIND GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 240112
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT UNDER A WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...AND ONLY SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S...WITH 30S
IN THE N...TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WHILE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...MANY AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS (MID-UPPER 40S)...WHILE MID RANGE ELEVATIONS
(UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INVERSION) AND URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S.

WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO CURRENT
READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE JUST YET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
LOW LEVELS SATURATING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDS...MRB AND CHO WOULD
STAND THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FEEL THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 6 KFT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

WIND GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




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