Home > Products > State Listing > District of Columbia Data
Latest:
 AFDLWX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS
WELL. TERRAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP NEAR
THE METRO AREAS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND KEEPING VSBY UP FARTHER EAST.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS
WELL. TERRAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP NEAR
THE METRO AREAS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND KEEPING VSBY UP FARTHER EAST.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS
WELL. TERRAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP NEAR
THE METRO AREAS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND KEEPING VSBY UP FARTHER EAST.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS
WELL. TERRAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP NEAR
THE METRO AREAS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND KEEPING VSBY UP FARTHER EAST.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021928
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LIT UP BY 16Z AS S/WV ENERGY HIT THE 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AMS.
THERE/S STILL NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...BUT INSTBY...PVA AND STEEP
LLVL LAPSE RATES HV WORKED IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SCT-NMRS TSRA W
OF THE BLURDG. ECHOES PRIMARILY IN THE LWX CWFA. SOME OF THESE
ECHOES HV BEEN TALL. PER PREV ANALYSIS...ALTHO SVR WX NOT
XPCTD... IF A THREAT WERE TO COME FM THESE...IT WUD BE FM A WET
MICROBURST. DO HV HVY RAIN IN THESE CELLS AS WELL. PWAT RUNNING
BTWN 1.5-1.75 INCH. WHILE FFG HIGH ENUF SO THAT SHUDNT BE AN ISSUE
EITHER /WEVE BEEN IN A DRY SPELL PAST MONTH OR TWO/...REPEATED
ECHOES MAY CAUSE LCL PONDING.

BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR REST OF THE AFTN. AM
CONFINING HIEST POPS INVOF THE S/WV...WHICH WL TAKE IT S OF DC BY
SUNSET...AND OUT OF THE CWFA BY MIDNGT. AM THINKING THE CLDS WL
THIN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...SO WL HV MOCLR
SKIES OVNGT. SINCE GRND WL BE WET...AMS HUMID...AND WNDS STILL
LGT...THAT MAKES FOR A GOOD FOG RECIPE. HV PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF
VA/PTMC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN.

HV MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN-T...WHICH WL RANGE FM MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVE TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE STORMS
WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY EVNG.
TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD THINK
THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS TSRA INVOF MRB/CHO...AND THESE STORMS APPCHG IAD. DCA SHUD BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY. XPCT BRIEF IFR W/IN ANY STORM. SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS PSBL.

ONCE STORMS CLR...SHUD BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR AS SKIES
CLR. MVFR FOG POTL...SPCLY MRB/CHO. WL NEED TO EVALUATE EXTENT OF
IFR POTL.

FCST SHUD BE RELATIVELY SIMLR TMRW...EXCEPT ALL ACTIVITY SHUD BE
SVRL HRS LATER. LT DAY/ELY EVE TSRA...PRODUCING LCL RESTRICTIONS.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
NMRS TSRA ACRS THE LAND ATTM. THESE SHUD STAY W OF THE
WATERS...BUT WONT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REACHING THE
PTMC. STRONG WIND GUST POTL W/IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

NW FLOW THRU THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE
EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL
BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021928
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LIT UP BY 16Z AS S/WV ENERGY HIT THE 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AMS.
THERE/S STILL NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...BUT INSTBY...PVA AND STEEP
LLVL LAPSE RATES HV WORKED IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SCT-NMRS TSRA W
OF THE BLURDG. ECHOES PRIMARILY IN THE LWX CWFA. SOME OF THESE
ECHOES HV BEEN TALL. PER PREV ANALYSIS...ALTHO SVR WX NOT
XPCTD... IF A THREAT WERE TO COME FM THESE...IT WUD BE FM A WET
MICROBURST. DO HV HVY RAIN IN THESE CELLS AS WELL. PWAT RUNNING
BTWN 1.5-1.75 INCH. WHILE FFG HIGH ENUF SO THAT SHUDNT BE AN ISSUE
EITHER /WEVE BEEN IN A DRY SPELL PAST MONTH OR TWO/...REPEATED
ECHOES MAY CAUSE LCL PONDING.

BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR REST OF THE AFTN. AM
CONFINING HIEST POPS INVOF THE S/WV...WHICH WL TAKE IT S OF DC BY
SUNSET...AND OUT OF THE CWFA BY MIDNGT. AM THINKING THE CLDS WL
THIN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...SO WL HV MOCLR
SKIES OVNGT. SINCE GRND WL BE WET...AMS HUMID...AND WNDS STILL
LGT...THAT MAKES FOR A GOOD FOG RECIPE. HV PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF
VA/PTMC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN.

HV MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN-T...WHICH WL RANGE FM MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVE TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE STORMS
WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY EVNG.
TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD THINK
THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS TSRA INVOF MRB/CHO...AND THESE STORMS APPCHG IAD. DCA SHUD BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY. XPCT BRIEF IFR W/IN ANY STORM. SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS PSBL.

ONCE STORMS CLR...SHUD BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR AS SKIES
CLR. MVFR FOG POTL...SPCLY MRB/CHO. WL NEED TO EVALUATE EXTENT OF
IFR POTL.

FCST SHUD BE RELATIVELY SIMLR TMRW...EXCEPT ALL ACTIVITY SHUD BE
SVRL HRS LATER. LT DAY/ELY EVE TSRA...PRODUCING LCL RESTRICTIONS.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
NMRS TSRA ACRS THE LAND ATTM. THESE SHUD STAY W OF THE
WATERS...BUT WONT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REACHING THE
PTMC. STRONG WIND GUST POTL W/IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

NW FLOW THRU THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE
EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL
BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021409
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF CWFA IS MOCLDY ATTM. THERE EVEN HV BEEN A CPL BRIEF SHRA
IN VA. THIS ASSOCD W/ A WEAK VORT AHD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THE
LATTER AND STRONGER S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY IN THE UPR
OHVLY ATTM...AND WL BE TRACKING ACRS THE AREA TAFTN.

MODIFIED LWX RAOB DEPCITS PLENTY OF INSTBY BUT VERY LTL SHEAR.
OVERALL AMS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LT SUMMER. PWAT HIGH BUT NOT
EXTRAVAGENT...1.5 IN. THEREFORE XPCT NMRS TSRA TO DVLP...AND THEN
COLLAPSE. SVR THREAT NIL. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS A WEAK WET
MICROBURST POTL. EUNF MVMT SUCH THAT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY CUT DOWN ON THE
TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE
SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR
T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM...ALSO SOME HZ NOTED.
OVERALL...DO NOT XPCT WIDESPREAD FLGT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. IF AIRFIELD DOES
RECEIVE DIRECT IMPACT FM A CELL THEN POTL FOR BRIEF IFR. THE RISK
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAF. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO IAD-DCA
LT DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUB-VFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THURS MORNING DUE TO FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021409
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF CWFA IS MOCLDY ATTM. THERE EVEN HV BEEN A CPL BRIEF SHRA
IN VA. THIS ASSOCD W/ A WEAK VORT AHD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THE
LATTER AND STRONGER S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY IN THE UPR
OHVLY ATTM...AND WL BE TRACKING ACRS THE AREA TAFTN.

MODIFIED LWX RAOB DEPCITS PLENTY OF INSTBY BUT VERY LTL SHEAR.
OVERALL AMS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LT SUMMER. PWAT HIGH BUT NOT
EXTRAVAGENT...1.5 IN. THEREFORE XPCT NMRS TSRA TO DVLP...AND THEN
COLLAPSE. SVR THREAT NIL. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS A WEAK WET
MICROBURST POTL. EUNF MVMT SUCH THAT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY CUT DOWN ON THE
TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE
SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR
T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM...ALSO SOME HZ NOTED.
OVERALL...DO NOT XPCT WIDESPREAD FLGT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. IF AIRFIELD DOES
RECEIVE DIRECT IMPACT FM A CELL THEN POTL FOR BRIEF IFR. THE RISK
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAF. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO IAD-DCA
LT DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUB-VFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THURS MORNING DUE TO FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021409
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF CWFA IS MOCLDY ATTM. THERE EVEN HV BEEN A CPL BRIEF SHRA
IN VA. THIS ASSOCD W/ A WEAK VORT AHD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THE
LATTER AND STRONGER S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY IN THE UPR
OHVLY ATTM...AND WL BE TRACKING ACRS THE AREA TAFTN.

MODIFIED LWX RAOB DEPCITS PLENTY OF INSTBY BUT VERY LTL SHEAR.
OVERALL AMS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LT SUMMER. PWAT HIGH BUT NOT
EXTRAVAGENT...1.5 IN. THEREFORE XPCT NMRS TSRA TO DVLP...AND THEN
COLLAPSE. SVR THREAT NIL. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS A WEAK WET
MICROBURST POTL. EUNF MVMT SUCH THAT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY CUT DOWN ON THE
TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE
SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR
T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM...ALSO SOME HZ NOTED.
OVERALL...DO NOT XPCT WIDESPREAD FLGT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. IF AIRFIELD DOES
RECEIVE DIRECT IMPACT FM A CELL THEN POTL FOR BRIEF IFR. THE RISK
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAF. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO IAD-DCA
LT DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUB-VFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THURS MORNING DUE TO FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021409
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF CWFA IS MOCLDY ATTM. THERE EVEN HV BEEN A CPL BRIEF SHRA
IN VA. THIS ASSOCD W/ A WEAK VORT AHD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THE
LATTER AND STRONGER S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY IN THE UPR
OHVLY ATTM...AND WL BE TRACKING ACRS THE AREA TAFTN.

MODIFIED LWX RAOB DEPCITS PLENTY OF INSTBY BUT VERY LTL SHEAR.
OVERALL AMS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LT SUMMER. PWAT HIGH BUT NOT
EXTRAVAGENT...1.5 IN. THEREFORE XPCT NMRS TSRA TO DVLP...AND THEN
COLLAPSE. SVR THREAT NIL. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS A WEAK WET
MICROBURST POTL. EUNF MVMT SUCH THAT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY CUT DOWN ON THE
TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE
SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR
T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM...ALSO SOME HZ NOTED.
OVERALL...DO NOT XPCT WIDESPREAD FLGT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. IF AIRFIELD DOES
RECEIVE DIRECT IMPACT FM A CELL THEN POTL FOR BRIEF IFR. THE RISK
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAF. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO IAD-DCA
LT DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUB-VFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THURS MORNING DUE TO FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020136
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER. MOST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AT THIS HOUR BUT A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WANE.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING LOW
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...THE VA PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
FAVORED LOCATION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME FAIRLY THICK HAZE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...WHICH IS ALSO RESULTING MINOR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IT COULD VERY WELL BE JUST AS HOT ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND FOG WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINTAINED OVERALL FORECAST CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE
AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN
IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD BE OBTAINED WED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020136
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER. MOST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AT THIS HOUR BUT A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WANE.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING LOW
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...THE VA PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
FAVORED LOCATION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME FAIRLY THICK HAZE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...WHICH IS ALSO RESULTING MINOR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IT COULD VERY WELL BE JUST AS HOT ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND FOG WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINTAINED OVERALL FORECAST CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE
AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN
IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD BE OBTAINED WED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities