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000
FXUS61 KLWX 290056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA...SWINGING THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE
FORCING ALOFT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...SEEING SNOW SHOWERS DCRSNG IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MD. HAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES STILL THRU 02Z THEN DRY
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN/T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND.
LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PCPN...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH
OF THE PCPN AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED THE WINDS WILL
THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING -
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PCPN INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PCPN BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PCPN W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS...ENDING 01-03Z
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBWI/KMTN. MIGHT BECOME MORE OCNL IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W
MIDDAY...THEN SW FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

DCRSNG CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY MID LVL IF ANY. FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS
PSBL DURING THE DAY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INCRSNG MID LVL CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AS PCPN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT
BREAK UP AND MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LVL WINDS 35-45
KTS...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE SFC MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT-TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT KMTN AND KBWI TERMINALS TUES NIGHT WITH LINGERING PCPN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS WITH 00Z OBS SHOWING GUSTS 20-25
KTS. SCA IS DROPPED UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AT MIDNIGHT...UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE REMAINING AREAS SUN AFTN.
THE SCA MAY END EARLIER FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD WITH TIMING FOR NOW.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES
FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LATE SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION.

IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT SPIKE ANY HIGHER THIS EVENING...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IAD) WILL BE ON TRACK TO BREAK A RECORD DAILY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH 28TH IS 39 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. SO FAR TODAY
THEY HAVE REACHED 37 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL STANDARD TIME LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...FORECAST MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923)............28............
BWI......18 (1923)............21............
IAD......20 (1982)............19............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...SEARS/GMS
MARINE...SEARS/GMS
CLIMATE...DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA...SWINGING THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE
FORCING ALOFT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...SEEING SNOW SHOWERS DCRSNG IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MD. HAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES STILL THRU 02Z THEN DRY
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN/T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND.
LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PCPN...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH
OF THE PCPN AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED THE WINDS WILL
THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING -
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PCPN INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PCPN BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PCPN W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS...ENDING 01-03Z
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBWI/KMTN. MIGHT BECOME MORE OCNL IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W
MIDDAY...THEN SW FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

DCRSNG CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY MID LVL IF ANY. FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS
PSBL DURING THE DAY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INCRSNG MID LVL CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AS PCPN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT
BREAK UP AND MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LVL WINDS 35-45
KTS...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE SFC MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT-TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT KMTN AND KBWI TERMINALS TUES NIGHT WITH LINGERING PCPN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS WITH 00Z OBS SHOWING GUSTS 20-25
KTS. SCA IS DROPPED UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AT MIDNIGHT...UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE REMAINING AREAS SUN AFTN.
THE SCA MAY END EARLIER FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD WITH TIMING FOR NOW.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES
FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LATE SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION.

IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT SPIKE ANY HIGHER THIS EVENING...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IAD) WILL BE ON TRACK TO BREAK A RECORD DAILY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH 28TH IS 39 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. SO FAR TODAY
THEY HAVE REACHED 37 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL STANDARD TIME LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...FORECAST MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923)............28............
BWI......18 (1923)............21............
IAD......20 (1982)............19............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...SEARS/GMS
MARINE...SEARS/GMS
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA...SWINGING THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE
FORCING ALOFT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...SEEING SNOW SHOWERS DCRSNG IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MD. HAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES STILL THRU 02Z THEN DRY
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN/T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND.
LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PCPN...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH
OF THE PCPN AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED THE WINDS WILL
THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING -
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PCPN INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PCPN BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PCPN W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS...ENDING 01-03Z
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBWI/KMTN. MIGHT BECOME MORE OCNL IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W
MIDDAY...THEN SW FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

DCRSNG CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY MID LVL IF ANY. FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS
PSBL DURING THE DAY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INCRSNG MID LVL CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AS PCPN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT
BREAK UP AND MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LVL WINDS 35-45
KTS...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE SFC MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT-TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT KMTN AND KBWI TERMINALS TUES NIGHT WITH LINGERING PCPN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS WITH 00Z OBS SHOWING GUSTS 20-25
KTS. SCA IS DROPPED UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AT MIDNIGHT...UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE REMAINING AREAS SUN AFTN.
THE SCA MAY END EARLIER FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD WITH TIMING FOR NOW.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES
FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LATE SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION.

IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT SPIKE ANY HIGHER THIS EVENING...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IAD) WILL BE ON TRACK TO BREAK A RECORD DAILY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH 28TH IS 39 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. SO FAR TODAY
THEY HAVE REACHED 37 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL STANDARD TIME LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...FORECAST MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923)............28............
BWI......18 (1923)............21............
IAD......20 (1982)............19............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...SEARS/GMS
MARINE...SEARS/GMS
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA...SWINGING THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE
FORCING ALOFT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...SEEING SNOW SHOWERS DCRSNG IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MD. HAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES STILL THRU 02Z THEN DRY
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN/T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND.
LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PCPN...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH
OF THE PCPN AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED THE WINDS WILL
THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING -
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PCPN INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PCPN BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PCPN W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS...ENDING 01-03Z
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBWI/KMTN. MIGHT BECOME MORE OCNL IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W
MIDDAY...THEN SW FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

DCRSNG CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY MID LVL IF ANY. FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS
PSBL DURING THE DAY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INCRSNG MID LVL CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AS PCPN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT
BREAK UP AND MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LVL WINDS 35-45
KTS...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE SFC MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT-TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT KMTN AND KBWI TERMINALS TUES NIGHT WITH LINGERING PCPN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS WITH 00Z OBS SHOWING GUSTS 20-25
KTS. SCA IS DROPPED UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AT MIDNIGHT...UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE REMAINING AREAS SUN AFTN.
THE SCA MAY END EARLIER FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD WITH TIMING FOR NOW.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES
FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LATE SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION.

IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT SPIKE ANY HIGHER THIS EVENING...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IAD) WILL BE ON TRACK TO BREAK A RECORD DAILY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH 28TH IS 39 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. SO FAR TODAY
THEY HAVE REACHED 37 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL STANDARD TIME LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...FORECAST MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923)............28............
BWI......18 (1923)............21............
IAD......20 (1982)............19............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...SEARS/GMS
MARINE...SEARS/GMS
CLIMATE...DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281914
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARP UPR TROF AXIS ACRS THE NERN
CONUS TAFTN. EMBEDDED W/IN THIS AXIS IS A S/WV ENTERING WRN PA. A
CONCENTRATION OF CLDS EVIDENT ON VSBL SATPIX...AND IT APPEARS AS THO
THERE ARE ACCOMPANYING FLURRIES ON RGNL RADARS. 12Z NAM/GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SWINGING THIS FEATURE ACRS MD LT TAFTN INTO ELY THIS EVNG.
WHERE DIFFS LAY RELATE TO THE AMT OF ASSOCD MSTR.

ITS TRUE THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE MRNG TROF DEWPTS HV DROPPED...AND
HV VALUES NEAR 10F ACRS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF THE CWFA ATTM.  THAT
WL DO A GOOD JOB EATING AWAY AT ANY PCPN THAT ATTEMPTS TO FALL.
HWVR...PVA IMPRESSIVE AND ITS TIMED IN SYNCH WITH BEST DAYTIME
HEATING. THUS WOULD BE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT SOMETHING WL REACH
THE GRND. THE MORE GENEROUS GFS QPF FIELDS KEEPING TRUE TO ITS
TENDENCY TO BE WETTER...WHICH THIS MRNG PROVED TO BE THE BETTER
FCST. STATISTICAL GDNC ON THE OTHER HAND WUD TEND TO WASH OUT SUCH
SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THEREFORE...NEW DATABASE GRIDS ALIGNED WITH
THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLN.

TEMPS TAFTN WARMER THAN THE MRNG ROUND...BUT BY NO MEANS WUD IT BE
CONSIDERED WARM-- JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TRAPPED IN THE 30S.
THEREFORE ANY FALLING PCPN WUD LIKELY BE PARTIALLY IF NOT COMPLETELY
FROZEN. TIME OF YEAR AND TEMP OF AMS ALOFT SUGGEST GRAUPEL A
CONSIDERATION. WL STICK W/ SHSN OR SHRASN FOR SIMPLICITY. BEST
TIMING WOULD BE 20-00Z BASED ON MEAN VORT POSN. AFTR SUNSET...POTL
SHUD WANE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN`T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND. LOWS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PRECIP...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA. GOOD GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH OF THE PRECIP AS
THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK
LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED  THE WINDS WILL THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING - MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY
MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA
BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PRECIP INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PRECIP BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PRECIP W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS WL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TMRW. HWVR...CANNOT GUARANTEE A
DRY FCST. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN
GRAUPEL...LATE THIS AFTN TO NEAR SUNSET SPCLY NEAR BWI/MTN. HWVR
CONFIDENCE AND AREAL CVRG PRECLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS. DID
PLACE WX IN TAF FOR MTN/BWI NEAR TIME OF MOST LKLY OCCURENCE...20-
23Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED...MOST LKLY NO LWR
THAN MVFR.

WINDS WL BE THE LARGER SCALE ISSUE...WITH NW WINDS 15 KT GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT. THE GUSTS WL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVNG...BUT WL STILL
HV 10-15 KT WINDS INTO TMRW.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WINDS WL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND
VEERING SW. FEW IF ANY CLDS XPCTD.

A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/ LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT BREAK UP AND
MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS.

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MTN AND BWI TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS NEAR A FRONT...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOLID SCA CONDS ATTM CONTG THRU THIS EVNG. WINDS WL BE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING OVNGT AND SUNDAY MRNG. HV SCALED BACK SCA AT MIDNGT FOR
THE MID-UPR PTMC. CONTD THE REST INTO SUN MRNG...AND CONTD MID BAY
INTO SUNDAY AFTN. PASSING HIPRES WL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DIMINISHING
WINDS DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG...W/ SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP
INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS AS LOW AS A FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS IN THE NRN BAY
AND 1.5 FT IN THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC ATTM. THIS NEGATIVE DEPARTURE
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS...ASIDE
FROM DULLES. IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE
THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW
DROPS TO 24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE
SEASON SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PIKESVILLE HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE AFTER TOWER WORK TODAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/GMS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE/HTS
EQUIPMENT...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281914
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARP UPR TROF AXIS ACRS THE NERN
CONUS TAFTN. EMBEDDED W/IN THIS AXIS IS A S/WV ENTERING WRN PA. A
CONCENTRATION OF CLDS EVIDENT ON VSBL SATPIX...AND IT APPEARS AS THO
THERE ARE ACCOMPANYING FLURRIES ON RGNL RADARS. 12Z NAM/GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SWINGING THIS FEATURE ACRS MD LT TAFTN INTO ELY THIS EVNG.
WHERE DIFFS LAY RELATE TO THE AMT OF ASSOCD MSTR.

ITS TRUE THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE MRNG TROF DEWPTS HV DROPPED...AND
HV VALUES NEAR 10F ACRS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF THE CWFA ATTM.  THAT
WL DO A GOOD JOB EATING AWAY AT ANY PCPN THAT ATTEMPTS TO FALL.
HWVR...PVA IMPRESSIVE AND ITS TIMED IN SYNCH WITH BEST DAYTIME
HEATING. THUS WOULD BE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT SOMETHING WL REACH
THE GRND. THE MORE GENEROUS GFS QPF FIELDS KEEPING TRUE TO ITS
TENDENCY TO BE WETTER...WHICH THIS MRNG PROVED TO BE THE BETTER
FCST. STATISTICAL GDNC ON THE OTHER HAND WUD TEND TO WASH OUT SUCH
SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THEREFORE...NEW DATABASE GRIDS ALIGNED WITH
THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLN.

TEMPS TAFTN WARMER THAN THE MRNG ROUND...BUT BY NO MEANS WUD IT BE
CONSIDERED WARM-- JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TRAPPED IN THE 30S.
THEREFORE ANY FALLING PCPN WUD LIKELY BE PARTIALLY IF NOT COMPLETELY
FROZEN. TIME OF YEAR AND TEMP OF AMS ALOFT SUGGEST GRAUPEL A
CONSIDERATION. WL STICK W/ SHSN OR SHRASN FOR SIMPLICITY. BEST
TIMING WOULD BE 20-00Z BASED ON MEAN VORT POSN. AFTR SUNSET...POTL
SHUD WANE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN`T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND. LOWS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PRECIP...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA. GOOD GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH OF THE PRECIP AS
THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK
LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED  THE WINDS WILL THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING - MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY
MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA
BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PRECIP INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PRECIP BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PRECIP W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS WL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TMRW. HWVR...CANNOT GUARANTEE A
DRY FCST. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN
GRAUPEL...LATE THIS AFTN TO NEAR SUNSET SPCLY NEAR BWI/MTN. HWVR
CONFIDENCE AND AREAL CVRG PRECLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS. DID
PLACE WX IN TAF FOR MTN/BWI NEAR TIME OF MOST LKLY OCCURENCE...20-
23Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED...MOST LKLY NO LWR
THAN MVFR.

WINDS WL BE THE LARGER SCALE ISSUE...WITH NW WINDS 15 KT GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT. THE GUSTS WL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVNG...BUT WL STILL
HV 10-15 KT WINDS INTO TMRW.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WINDS WL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND
VEERING SW. FEW IF ANY CLDS XPCTD.

A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/ LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT BREAK UP AND
MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS.

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MTN AND BWI TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS NEAR A FRONT...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOLID SCA CONDS ATTM CONTG THRU THIS EVNG. WINDS WL BE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING OVNGT AND SUNDAY MRNG. HV SCALED BACK SCA AT MIDNGT FOR
THE MID-UPR PTMC. CONTD THE REST INTO SUN MRNG...AND CONTD MID BAY
INTO SUNDAY AFTN. PASSING HIPRES WL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DIMINISHING
WINDS DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG...W/ SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP
INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS AS LOW AS A FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS IN THE NRN BAY
AND 1.5 FT IN THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC ATTM. THIS NEGATIVE DEPARTURE
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS...ASIDE
FROM DULLES. IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE
THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW
DROPS TO 24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE
SEASON SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PIKESVILLE HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE AFTER TOWER WORK TODAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/GMS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE/HTS
EQUIPMENT...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281422
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC ANALY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEEP TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/UPR OHVLY. THERE ARE SVRL ZONES OF CNVGNC EMBEDDED W/IN
THIS TROF. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS A DEWPT GRADIENT THAT SLID ACRS
THE ERN CWFA THIS MRNG. THE END RESULT WAS SCTD FLURRIES ACRS CWFA
WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LGT-MDT SNW ACRS NE MD. RADR
ACTIVITY HAS GNRLY DIMINSHED...ALTHO RTNS IN ME MD SUGGEST THAT
FLURRIES LINGER. HV SCALED BACK ON ENHANCED POPS FOR THE MIDDAY
HRS.

LTST MDL GDNC CONT A TREND FIRST IDENTIFIED OVNGT-- A 2ND FAIRLY
VIGOROUS VORT WL PINWHEEL ACRS PA TAFTN NEAR A NEARLY CUTOFF H5
LOW. THIS FEATURE WL HV THE ADVANTAGE OF MAKING USE OF DECENT
LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES /5C/KM/...SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS. SFC TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER...AND MAY PROMPT SOME MELTING.
HWVR...H8 TEMPS WL BE INVOF -12C AT THAT TIME...SO SOME SNOW AND
EVEN SOME GRAUPEL MAY FALL AS WELL. WL PAD MID-LATE AFTN POPS ACRS
NERN MD /AGAIN/ TO ACCT FOR THE 2ND ROUND.

TEMPS RUNNING COLDER THAN GDNC...AND ISNT HELPED BY THE NOW PATCHY
SNOWCOVER IN MD. HV TRIMMED MAXT BY SVRL DEGF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD
CONTAIN A MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A
TERMINAL IS LOW. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM
THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY
FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS NEAR
15 KT WITH GUSTS COMMONLY UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS PREVAIL ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM. MIXED LAYER WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER LIMIT TO GUSTS...
ALTHO CURRENT OBS SUGGEST WE/RE MAKING USE OF FULL MIXING FOR THE
MRNG. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH
THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS UP TO A HALF-FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS ATTM. THIS
NEGATIVE DEPARTURE SHOULD ONLY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PIKESVILLE NWR WILL EXPERIENCE SPORADIC OUTAGES TODAY AS
MAINTENANCE IS PERFORMED ON THE TOWER.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/JE
MARINE...HTS/ADS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE
EQUIPMENT...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281422
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC ANALY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEEP TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/UPR OHVLY. THERE ARE SVRL ZONES OF CNVGNC EMBEDDED W/IN
THIS TROF. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS A DEWPT GRADIENT THAT SLID ACRS
THE ERN CWFA THIS MRNG. THE END RESULT WAS SCTD FLURRIES ACRS CWFA
WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LGT-MDT SNW ACRS NE MD. RADR
ACTIVITY HAS GNRLY DIMINSHED...ALTHO RTNS IN ME MD SUGGEST THAT
FLURRIES LINGER. HV SCALED BACK ON ENHANCED POPS FOR THE MIDDAY
HRS.

LTST MDL GDNC CONT A TREND FIRST IDENTIFIED OVNGT-- A 2ND FAIRLY
VIGOROUS VORT WL PINWHEEL ACRS PA TAFTN NEAR A NEARLY CUTOFF H5
LOW. THIS FEATURE WL HV THE ADVANTAGE OF MAKING USE OF DECENT
LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES /5C/KM/...SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS. SFC TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER...AND MAY PROMPT SOME MELTING.
HWVR...H8 TEMPS WL BE INVOF -12C AT THAT TIME...SO SOME SNOW AND
EVEN SOME GRAUPEL MAY FALL AS WELL. WL PAD MID-LATE AFTN POPS ACRS
NERN MD /AGAIN/ TO ACCT FOR THE 2ND ROUND.

TEMPS RUNNING COLDER THAN GDNC...AND ISNT HELPED BY THE NOW PATCHY
SNOWCOVER IN MD. HV TRIMMED MAXT BY SVRL DEGF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD
CONTAIN A MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A
TERMINAL IS LOW. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM
THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY
FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS NEAR
15 KT WITH GUSTS COMMONLY UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS PREVAIL ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM. MIXED LAYER WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER LIMIT TO GUSTS...
ALTHO CURRENT OBS SUGGEST WE/RE MAKING USE OF FULL MIXING FOR THE
MRNG. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH
THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS UP TO A HALF-FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS ATTM. THIS
NEGATIVE DEPARTURE SHOULD ONLY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PIKESVILLE NWR WILL EXPERIENCE SPORADIC OUTAGES TODAY AS
MAINTENANCE IS PERFORMED ON THE TOWER.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/JE
MARINE...HTS/ADS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE
EQUIPMENT...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281422
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC ANALY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEEP TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/UPR OHVLY. THERE ARE SVRL ZONES OF CNVGNC EMBEDDED W/IN
THIS TROF. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS A DEWPT GRADIENT THAT SLID ACRS
THE ERN CWFA THIS MRNG. THE END RESULT WAS SCTD FLURRIES ACRS CWFA
WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LGT-MDT SNW ACRS NE MD. RADR
ACTIVITY HAS GNRLY DIMINSHED...ALTHO RTNS IN ME MD SUGGEST THAT
FLURRIES LINGER. HV SCALED BACK ON ENHANCED POPS FOR THE MIDDAY
HRS.

LTST MDL GDNC CONT A TREND FIRST IDENTIFIED OVNGT-- A 2ND FAIRLY
VIGOROUS VORT WL PINWHEEL ACRS PA TAFTN NEAR A NEARLY CUTOFF H5
LOW. THIS FEATURE WL HV THE ADVANTAGE OF MAKING USE OF DECENT
LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES /5C/KM/...SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS. SFC TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER...AND MAY PROMPT SOME MELTING.
HWVR...H8 TEMPS WL BE INVOF -12C AT THAT TIME...SO SOME SNOW AND
EVEN SOME GRAUPEL MAY FALL AS WELL. WL PAD MID-LATE AFTN POPS ACRS
NERN MD /AGAIN/ TO ACCT FOR THE 2ND ROUND.

TEMPS RUNNING COLDER THAN GDNC...AND ISNT HELPED BY THE NOW PATCHY
SNOWCOVER IN MD. HV TRIMMED MAXT BY SVRL DEGF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD
CONTAIN A MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A
TERMINAL IS LOW. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM
THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY
FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS NEAR
15 KT WITH GUSTS COMMONLY UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS PREVAIL ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM. MIXED LAYER WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER LIMIT TO GUSTS...
ALTHO CURRENT OBS SUGGEST WE/RE MAKING USE OF FULL MIXING FOR THE
MRNG. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH
THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS UP TO A HALF-FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS ATTM. THIS
NEGATIVE DEPARTURE SHOULD ONLY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PIKESVILLE NWR WILL EXPERIENCE SPORADIC OUTAGES TODAY AS
MAINTENANCE IS PERFORMED ON THE TOWER.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/JE
MARINE...HTS/ADS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE
EQUIPMENT...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING WITH CONNECTIONS TO GREENLAND. A FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE...WHILE A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTABLE IN THE DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME LIFT HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TO CENTRAL VA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE. BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS IN WV/PA...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST RETURNS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. AREAS NEAR THE PA BORDER
MAY ALSO SEE A FLURRY.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROJECTED FORCING
MECHANISMS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ROGUE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME...MAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING
OCCURS. EVEN THEN...THINK A COMPACT VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT INTO NORTHERN MD DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON NEAR-SFC TEMPS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...RAIN...SNOW...AND GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR (MORE LIKELY THE
LATTER TWO IN THE FAVORED AREA).

DESPITE GOOD MIXING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN...HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 40S IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREA...30S
WEST...AND BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ADD A BITE TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD CONTAIN A
MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL IS LOW. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 10 KT.
SPORADIC GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING COMMON UP TO 25 KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUST OF 20 KT OR GREATER THIS MORNING ON ALL
WATERS AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
GUST TO BECOME EVEN MORE COMMONPLACE AFTER THE SUN RISES. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER
LIMIT TO GUSTS. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN
STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...ADS/JE
MARINE...ADS/JE
CLIMATE...DFH/JE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING WITH CONNECTIONS TO GREENLAND. A FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE...WHILE A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTABLE IN THE DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME LIFT HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TO CENTRAL VA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE. BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS IN WV/PA...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST RETURNS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. AREAS NEAR THE PA BORDER
MAY ALSO SEE A FLURRY.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROJECTED FORCING
MECHANISMS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ROGUE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME...MAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING
OCCURS. EVEN THEN...THINK A COMPACT VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT INTO NORTHERN MD DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON NEAR-SFC TEMPS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...RAIN...SNOW...AND GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR (MORE LIKELY THE
LATTER TWO IN THE FAVORED AREA).

DESPITE GOOD MIXING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN...HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 40S IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREA...30S
WEST...AND BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ADD A BITE TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD CONTAIN A
MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL IS LOW. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 10 KT.
SPORADIC GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING COMMON UP TO 25 KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUST OF 20 KT OR GREATER THIS MORNING ON ALL
WATERS AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
GUST TO BECOME EVEN MORE COMMONPLACE AFTER THE SUN RISES. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER
LIMIT TO GUSTS. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN
STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...ADS/JE
MARINE...ADS/JE
CLIMATE...DFH/JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING WITH CONNECTIONS TO GREENLAND. A FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE...WHILE A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTABLE IN THE DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME LIFT HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TO CENTRAL VA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE. BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS IN WV/PA...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST RETURNS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. AREAS NEAR THE PA BORDER
MAY ALSO SEE A FLURRY.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROJECTED FORCING
MECHANISMS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ROGUE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME...MAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING
OCCURS. EVEN THEN...THINK A COMPACT VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT INTO NORTHERN MD DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON NEAR-SFC TEMPS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...RAIN...SNOW...AND GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR (MORE LIKELY THE
LATTER TWO IN THE FAVORED AREA).

DESPITE GOOD MIXING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN...HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 40S IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREA...30S
WEST...AND BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ADD A BITE TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD CONTAIN A
MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL IS LOW. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 10 KT.
SPORADIC GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING COMMON UP TO 25 KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUST OF 20 KT OR GREATER THIS MORNING ON ALL
WATERS AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
GUST TO BECOME EVEN MORE COMMONPLACE AFTER THE SUN RISES. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER
LIMIT TO GUSTS. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN
STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...ADS/JE
MARINE...ADS/JE
CLIMATE...DFH/JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING WITH CONNECTIONS TO GREENLAND. A FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE...WHILE A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTABLE IN THE DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME LIFT HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TO CENTRAL VA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE. BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS IN WV/PA...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST RETURNS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. AREAS NEAR THE PA BORDER
MAY ALSO SEE A FLURRY.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROJECTED FORCING
MECHANISMS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ROGUE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME...MAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING
OCCURS. EVEN THEN...THINK A COMPACT VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT INTO NORTHERN MD DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON NEAR-SFC TEMPS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...RAIN...SNOW...AND GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR (MORE LIKELY THE
LATTER TWO IN THE FAVORED AREA).

DESPITE GOOD MIXING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN...HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 40S IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREA...30S
WEST...AND BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ADD A BITE TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD CONTAIN A
MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL IS LOW. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 10 KT.
SPORADIC GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING COMMON UP TO 25 KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUST OF 20 KT OR GREATER THIS MORNING ON ALL
WATERS AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
GUST TO BECOME EVEN MORE COMMONPLACE AFTER THE SUN RISES. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER
LIMIT TO GUSTS. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN
STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...ADS/JE
MARINE...ADS/JE
CLIMATE...DFH/JE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280023
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
823 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

RE: DC CHERRY BLOSSOMS AND AVG TEMPERATURE.

FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...LOOKING AT AVG TEMPS FOR THE PD 2/1-3/26...FOR
DC 2015 IS THE 2ND COLDEST...ONLY BEHIND 1993. NPS WEB SITE STILL
DOES NOT SHOW ANY BLOSSOM ACTIVITY AS HAVG BEGUN. IN 1993 THE PEAK
OCCURRED ON 4/11. THE LATEST PEAK BLOOM (SINCE 1921) WAS IN 1958 -
4/18.

RDR SHOWS LGT SNSH OVR W.V. IN ASSO W/ A VORT IN THE LONG WV
PATTERN. SHORT RNG MDLS SHOW THIS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES E OF THE
MTNS.

WHILE WE HV CHC SW/RW IN THE FCST FOR SAT MRNG THRU MID AFTN THIS
IS THE TIME OF YR WHERE LO LVL INSTABILITY COUPLED W/ A COLD POOL
ALOFT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL.

PRVS DSCN...

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTN. WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL.
TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF
THE GUST POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU SAT. RW/SW/IP PSBL DURG MRNG HRS SAT ALNG W/ BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION
TO EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH THE
NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25
KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA FOR ALL
WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.

&&

CLIMATE...
OUR AREA IS IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MARCH 26TH)...THE REGION SAW THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2014.

SITE...3/26/15 MAX T...WARMEST SINCE.....
DCA.......77 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
BWI.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
IAD.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (82 F)...

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/GMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280023
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
823 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

RE: DC CHERRY BLOSSOMS AND AVG TEMPERATURE.

FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...LOOKING AT AVG TEMPS FOR THE PD 2/1-3/26...FOR
DC 2015 IS THE 2ND COLDEST...ONLY BEHIND 1993. NPS WEB SITE STILL
DOES NOT SHOW ANY BLOSSOM ACTIVITY AS HAVG BEGUN. IN 1993 THE PEAK
OCCURRED ON 4/11. THE LATEST PEAK BLOOM (SINCE 1921) WAS IN 1958 -
4/18.

RDR SHOWS LGT SNSH OVR W.V. IN ASSO W/ A VORT IN THE LONG WV
PATTERN. SHORT RNG MDLS SHOW THIS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES E OF THE
MTNS.

WHILE WE HV CHC SW/RW IN THE FCST FOR SAT MRNG THRU MID AFTN THIS
IS THE TIME OF YR WHERE LO LVL INSTABILITY COUPLED W/ A COLD POOL
ALOFT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL.

PRVS DSCN...

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTN. WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL.
TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF
THE GUST POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU SAT. RW/SW/IP PSBL DURG MRNG HRS SAT ALNG W/ BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION
TO EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH THE
NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25
KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA FOR ALL
WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.

&&

CLIMATE...
OUR AREA IS IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MARCH 26TH)...THE REGION SAW THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2014.

SITE...3/26/15 MAX T...WARMEST SINCE.....
DCA.......77 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
BWI.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
IAD.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (82 F)...

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/GMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 272151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HV RMVD SOME OF THE LOW CHC POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE DAY IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. AS CAN BE SEEN ON RGNL RDR THE BEST CHC
FOR PCPN (R) IS IN THE E IN ASSO W/ THE CSTL LOW.

IF PCPN DOES HAPPEN OVRNGT BLV IT WL BE SCT/LGT IN NATURE. WHILE
WE HV CHC SW/RW IN THE FCST FOR SAT MRNG THRU MID AFTN THIS IS
THE TIME OF YR WHERE LO LVL INSTABILITY COUPLED W/ A COLD POOL
ALOFT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL.

PRVS DSCN...

H5 TROF AXIS WL DROP INTO CWFA AFTR MIDNGT AND CROSS THRU ELY/MID
AFTN. THIS TIMING A PINCH QUICKER THAN PRVS PROGS. CAA WL BE ONGOING
FM TAFTN THRU TMRW AFTN...W/ H8 TEMPS BTTMG OUT ARND -10 TO -14C.
HWVR...BEST INSTBY AND PVA MIGHT NOT BE COINCIDENT...WHICH MAKES
ORGANIZED PCPN LESS LKLY. AM LEANING MORE TWD DYNAMIC FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR PCPN PRODUCTION...WHICH SUGGEST THAT POP CHCS
PREFERRED OVNGT INTO ELY MRNG CENTRAL VA INTO THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...
AND MRNG/MIDDAY HRS I-95 CORRIDOR/CATOCTINS-NRN BLURDG/HGR-MRB AREA.
MD MAY BE A BIT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE INTO ELY AFTN AS LTMD INSTBY BUILDS
IN DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID...MSTR WL BE LIMITED AND HIT-OR-MISS
IN NATURE-- NOT WORTHY OF MORE THEN CHC POPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
/AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AT THE GRDN FOR THOSE SITES THAT SEE
ANYTHING DURING THE AM/...PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GRND STANDS A
GOOD CHC TO REACH AS SNOW PRIOR TO MELTING BUT THERE WUD BE TOO LTL
TO BE CONCERNED ABT ACCUMS.

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL. TOP OF
MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST
POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU SAT. RW/SW/IP PSBL DURG MRNG HRS SAT ALNG W/ BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION
TO EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH THE
NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25
KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA FOR ALL
WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.

&&

CLIMATE...
OUR AREA IS IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MARCH 26TH)...THE REGION SAW THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2014.

SITE...3/26/15 MAX T...WARMEST SINCE.....
DCA.......77 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
BWI.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
IAD.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (82 F)...

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/GMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 272151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HV RMVD SOME OF THE LOW CHC POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE DAY IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. AS CAN BE SEEN ON RGNL RDR THE BEST CHC
FOR PCPN (R) IS IN THE E IN ASSO W/ THE CSTL LOW.

IF PCPN DOES HAPPEN OVRNGT BLV IT WL BE SCT/LGT IN NATURE. WHILE
WE HV CHC SW/RW IN THE FCST FOR SAT MRNG THRU MID AFTN THIS IS
THE TIME OF YR WHERE LO LVL INSTABILITY COUPLED W/ A COLD POOL
ALOFT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL.

PRVS DSCN...

H5 TROF AXIS WL DROP INTO CWFA AFTR MIDNGT AND CROSS THRU ELY/MID
AFTN. THIS TIMING A PINCH QUICKER THAN PRVS PROGS. CAA WL BE ONGOING
FM TAFTN THRU TMRW AFTN...W/ H8 TEMPS BTTMG OUT ARND -10 TO -14C.
HWVR...BEST INSTBY AND PVA MIGHT NOT BE COINCIDENT...WHICH MAKES
ORGANIZED PCPN LESS LKLY. AM LEANING MORE TWD DYNAMIC FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR PCPN PRODUCTION...WHICH SUGGEST THAT POP CHCS
PREFERRED OVNGT INTO ELY MRNG CENTRAL VA INTO THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...
AND MRNG/MIDDAY HRS I-95 CORRIDOR/CATOCTINS-NRN BLURDG/HGR-MRB AREA.
MD MAY BE A BIT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE INTO ELY AFTN AS LTMD INSTBY BUILDS
IN DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID...MSTR WL BE LIMITED AND HIT-OR-MISS
IN NATURE-- NOT WORTHY OF MORE THEN CHC POPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
/AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AT THE GRDN FOR THOSE SITES THAT SEE
ANYTHING DURING THE AM/...PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GRND STANDS A
GOOD CHC TO REACH AS SNOW PRIOR TO MELTING BUT THERE WUD BE TOO LTL
TO BE CONCERNED ABT ACCUMS.

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL. TOP OF
MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST
POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU SAT. RW/SW/IP PSBL DURG MRNG HRS SAT ALNG W/ BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION
TO EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH THE
NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25
KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA FOR ALL
WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.

&&

CLIMATE...
OUR AREA IS IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MARCH 26TH)...THE REGION SAW THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2014.

SITE...3/26/15 MAX T...WARMEST SINCE.....
DCA.......77 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
BWI.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
IAD.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (82 F)...

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/GMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271859
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING RA SE OF NAK-EZF TAFTN. AS PROGGED ERLR...ITS DEPARTURE
PAINFULLY SLOW DUE TO STEEPENING TROF AXIS ACRS THE GRTLKS/MIDWEST.
WL KEEP POPS GOING PAST SUNSET FOR THESE AREAS. SUNSHINE ALSO A RARE
COMMODITY...AS CU DVLPG AS QUICKLY AS LLVL MSTR THINS. THINK THAT
MOCLDY AT BEST WL DESCRIBE SKYCOVER INTO THE EVNG.

H5 TROF AXIS WL DROP INTO CWFA AFTR MIDNGT AND CROSS THRU ELY/MID
AFTN. THIS TIMING A PINCH QUICKER THAN PRVS PROGS. CAA WL BE ONGOING
FM TAFTN THRU TMRW AFTN...W/ H8 TEMPS BTTMG OUT ARND -10 TO -14C.
HWVR...BEST INSTBY AND PVA MIGHT NOT BE COINCIDENT...WHICH MAKES
ORGANIZED PCPN LESS LKLY. AM LEANING MORE TWD DYNAMIC FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR PCPN PRODUCTION...WHICH SUGGEST THAT POP CHCS
PREFERRED OVNGT INTO ELY MRNG CENTRAL VA INTO THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...
AND MRNG/MIDDAY HRS I-95 CORRIDOR/CATOCTINS-NRN BLURDG/HGR-MRB AREA.
MD MAY BE A BIT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE INTO ELY AFTN AS LTMD INSTBY BUILDS
IN DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID...MSTR WL BE LIMITED AND HIT-OR-MISS
IN NATURE-- NOT WORTHY OF MORE THEN CHC POPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
/AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AT THE GRDN FOR THOSE SITES THAT SEE
ANYTHING DURING THE AM/...PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GRND STANDS A
GOOD CHC TO REACH AS SNOW PRIOR TO MELTING BUT THERE WUD BE TOO LTL
TO BE CONCERNED ABT ACCUMS.

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL. TOP OF
MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST
POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS STILL LINGERING CHO/MTN...OTRW VFR PREVAILS. CHO CIGS
CONTAINS MORE VARIABILITY AS ITS ON THE EDGE OF THE MSTR SHIELD.
CONDS SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE BY DARK...AND SHUD REMAIN THAT
WAY THRU SAT.

S/WV ENERGY WL CROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW...MAINLY BUT NOT
EXCLUSIVELY IN THE AM. MSTR SCANT...BUT TEMPS ALOFT COLD ENUF TO
SUPPORT SNOW. DUE TO COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE CONCERNS...AM NOT INCLUDING
IN TAFS ATTM. TIMING SHUD BE LIMITED AT ANY ONE SITE...AND DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT. SUSTAINED
WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION TO
EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.
&&

.MARINE...
MIXING HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR DUE TO A SOLID CLD DECK. THE LT
AFTN HRS SHUD BE A LULL...WITH WINDS PICKING UP THEREAFTER DUE TO
CAA. THAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH
THE NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR
CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA
FOR ALL WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271859
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING RA SE OF NAK-EZF TAFTN. AS PROGGED ERLR...ITS DEPARTURE
PAINFULLY SLOW DUE TO STEEPENING TROF AXIS ACRS THE GRTLKS/MIDWEST.
WL KEEP POPS GOING PAST SUNSET FOR THESE AREAS. SUNSHINE ALSO A RARE
COMMODITY...AS CU DVLPG AS QUICKLY AS LLVL MSTR THINS. THINK THAT
MOCLDY AT BEST WL DESCRIBE SKYCOVER INTO THE EVNG.

H5 TROF AXIS WL DROP INTO CWFA AFTR MIDNGT AND CROSS THRU ELY/MID
AFTN. THIS TIMING A PINCH QUICKER THAN PRVS PROGS. CAA WL BE ONGOING
FM TAFTN THRU TMRW AFTN...W/ H8 TEMPS BTTMG OUT ARND -10 TO -14C.
HWVR...BEST INSTBY AND PVA MIGHT NOT BE COINCIDENT...WHICH MAKES
ORGANIZED PCPN LESS LKLY. AM LEANING MORE TWD DYNAMIC FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR PCPN PRODUCTION...WHICH SUGGEST THAT POP CHCS
PREFERRED OVNGT INTO ELY MRNG CENTRAL VA INTO THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...
AND MRNG/MIDDAY HRS I-95 CORRIDOR/CATOCTINS-NRN BLURDG/HGR-MRB AREA.
MD MAY BE A BIT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE INTO ELY AFTN AS LTMD INSTBY BUILDS
IN DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID...MSTR WL BE LIMITED AND HIT-OR-MISS
IN NATURE-- NOT WORTHY OF MORE THEN CHC POPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
/AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AT THE GRDN FOR THOSE SITES THAT SEE
ANYTHING DURING THE AM/...PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GRND STANDS A
GOOD CHC TO REACH AS SNOW PRIOR TO MELTING BUT THERE WUD BE TOO LTL
TO BE CONCERNED ABT ACCUMS.

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL. TOP OF
MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST
POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS STILL LINGERING CHO/MTN...OTRW VFR PREVAILS. CHO CIGS
CONTAINS MORE VARIABILITY AS ITS ON THE EDGE OF THE MSTR SHIELD.
CONDS SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE BY DARK...AND SHUD REMAIN THAT
WAY THRU SAT.

S/WV ENERGY WL CROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW...MAINLY BUT NOT
EXCLUSIVELY IN THE AM. MSTR SCANT...BUT TEMPS ALOFT COLD ENUF TO
SUPPORT SNOW. DUE TO COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE CONCERNS...AM NOT INCLUDING
IN TAFS ATTM. TIMING SHUD BE LIMITED AT ANY ONE SITE...AND DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT. SUSTAINED
WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION TO
EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.
&&

.MARINE...
MIXING HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR DUE TO A SOLID CLD DECK. THE LT
AFTN HRS SHUD BE A LULL...WITH WINDS PICKING UP THEREAFTER DUE TO
CAA. THAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH
THE NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR
CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA
FOR ALL WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271415
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
POST-FRONTAL PCPN BAND STRETCHED ALONG I-95. BACK EDGE ENTERING
THE MTNS ATTM. ITLL LKLY TAKE ALL DAY FOR THIS BACK END TO
PROGRESS EWD...AS FWD PUSH WL BE LOST DUE TO AMPLIFYING H5 TROF
AXIS. MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO DATABASE. ADDTL QPF SHUD BE
AOB 1/4 INCH...AND SHUD BE NIL AFTR 18Z.

SINCE PCPN HOLDING ON...HV TRIMMED MAXT...KEEPING HIGHS CLOSE TO
CRRNT TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT ARCTIC AIRMASS SEEN IN THETA-E FIELDS.
A SECOND UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH. SEEING AN INCREASE IN MEAN RH AND MODEST LIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TIMING. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 20S
FOR THE REST EXCEPT EAST OF I-95.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD AND CAA WILL
CONTINUE. AN ALMOST WINTRY-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE CLOUD LAYER INTERSECTING THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW -10C...LEADING
TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE...EVEN IF THE SUN IS OUT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. EVEN IF SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...THAT LAYER WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW AND THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE IN ANY SHOWER WOULD LIKELY BE
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST U.S. TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT ONLY TO BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SWING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...REACHING THE
LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MARYLAND...SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO
GIVE IN TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE MASON DIXON AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
RIDGE ALONG IT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE WEEK DESPITE THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WITH ANY KIND OF AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE THE REASON FOR THIS TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT MOST TAF SITES. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRECIP ENDS. NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 20 KT
THROUGH MIDDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR
MRB...MTN OR BWI FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SE OF THE WATERS. RAIN WITH REDUCED VSBY
WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY...TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE
MARGINAL WITH TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NW GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SE VA. HOWEVER MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING REMAINS BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER
JET STREAK PARALLELS THE APPALACHIANS. WAVES OF PRECIP CONTINUE TO
STREAM ALONG THIS ZONE. SOME OF IT IS MODERATE AT TIMES...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE PROLONGED ENOUGH AT ANY ONE LOCATION TO CAUSE
ISSUES. CAA HAS BEGUN ON NW WINDS...WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
40S. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX AND AT SOME POINT ALL SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST TODAY AND A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE SE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND POPS A LITTLE IN TIME...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A NW TO SE DRYING TREND THROUGH TODAY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP
BAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN UNDER CAA. THERE IS A TREND IN GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
THIS CHANCE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER TOWARD CENTRAL VA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO ADD TO TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO THIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT ARCTIC AIRMASS SEEN IN THETA-E FIELDS.
A SECOND UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH. SEEING AN INCREASE IN MEAN RH AND MODEST LIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TIMING. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 20S
FOR THE REST EXCEPT EAST OF I-95.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD AND CAA WILL
CONTINUE. AN ALMOST WINTRY-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE CLOUD LAYER INTERSECTING THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW -10C...LEADING
TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE...EVEN IF THE SUN IS OUT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. EVEN IF SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...THAT LAYER WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW AND THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE IN ANY SHOWER WOULD LIKELY BE
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST U.S. TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT ONLY TO BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SWING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...REACHING THE
LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MARYLAND...SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO
GIVE IN TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE MASON DIXON AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
RIDGE ALONG IT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE WEEK DESPITE THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WITH ANY KIND OF AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE THE REASON FOR THIS TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IN A FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO FALL...MODERATELY IN
POCKETS... ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS PRIMARILY FALLING OUT OF A VFR
BASE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AT TIMES. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRECIP ENDS. NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR
MRB...MTN OR BWI FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SE OF THE WATERS. RAIN WITH REDUCED VSBY
WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY...TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE
MARGINAL WITH TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NW GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SE VA. HOWEVER MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING REMAINS BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER
JET STREAK PARALLELS THE APPALACHIANS. WAVES OF PRECIP CONTINUE TO
STREAM ALONG THIS ZONE. SOME OF IT IS MODERATE AT TIMES...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE PROLONGED ENOUGH AT ANY ONE LOCATION TO CAUSE
ISSUES. CAA HAS BEGUN ON NW WINDS...WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
40S. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX AND AT SOME POINT ALL SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST TODAY AND A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE SE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND POPS A LITTLE IN TIME...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A NW TO SE DRYING TREND THROUGH TODAY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP
BAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN UNDER CAA. THERE IS A TREND IN GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
THIS CHANCE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER TOWARD CENTRAL VA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO ADD TO TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO THIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT ARCTIC AIRMASS SEEN IN THETA-E FIELDS.
A SECOND UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH. SEEING AN INCREASE IN MEAN RH AND MODEST LIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TIMING. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 20S
FOR THE REST EXCEPT EAST OF I-95.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD AND CAA WILL
CONTINUE. AN ALMOST WINTRY-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE CLOUD LAYER INTERSECTING THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW -10C...LEADING
TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE...EVEN IF THE SUN IS OUT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. EVEN IF SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...THAT LAYER WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW AND THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE IN ANY SHOWER WOULD LIKELY BE
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST U.S. TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT ONLY TO BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SWING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...REACHING THE
LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MARYLAND...SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO
GIVE IN TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE MASON DIXON AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
RIDGE ALONG IT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE WEEK DESPITE THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WITH ANY KIND OF AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE THE REASON FOR THIS TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IN A FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO FALL...MODERATELY IN
POCKETS... ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS PRIMARILY FALLING OUT OF A VFR
BASE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AT TIMES. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRECIP ENDS. NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR
MRB...MTN OR BWI FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SE OF THE WATERS. RAIN WITH REDUCED VSBY
WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY...TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE
MARGINAL WITH TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NW GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 270756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SE VA. HOWEVER MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING REMAINS BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER
JET STREAK PARALLELS THE APPALACHIANS. WAVES OF PRECIP CONTINUE TO
STREAM ALONG THIS ZONE. SOME OF IT IS MODERATE AT TIMES...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE PROLONGED ENOUGH AT ANY ONE LOCATION TO CAUSE
ISSUES. CAA HAS BEGUN ON NW WINDS...WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
40S. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX AND AT SOME POINT ALL SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST TODAY AND A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE SE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND POPS A LITTLE IN TIME...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A NW TO SE DRYING TREND THROUGH TODAY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP
BAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN UNDER CAA. THERE IS A TREND IN GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
THIS CHANCE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER TOWARD CENTRAL VA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO ADD TO TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO THIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT ARCTIC AIRMASS SEEN IN THETA-E FIELDS.
A SECOND UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH. SEEING AN INCREASE IN MEAN RH AND MODEST LIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TIMING. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 20S
FOR THE REST EXCEPT EAST OF I-95.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD AND CAA WILL
CONTINUE. AN ALMOST WINTRY-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE CLOUD LAYER INTERSECTING THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW -10C...LEADING
TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE...EVEN IF THE SUN IS OUT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. EVEN IF SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...THAT LAYER WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW AND THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE IN ANY SHOWER WOULD LIKELY BE
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST U.S. TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT ONLY TO BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SWING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...REACHING THE
LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MARYLAND...SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO
GIVE IN TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE MASON DIXON AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
RIDGE ALONG IT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE WEEK DESPITE THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WITH ANY KIND OF AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE THE REASON FOR THIS TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IN A FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO FALL...MODERATELY IN
POCKETS... ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS PRIMARILY FALLING OUT OF A VFR
BASE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AT TIMES. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRECIP ENDS. NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR
MRB...MTN OR BWI FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SE OF THE WATERS. RAIN WITH REDUCED VSBY
WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY...TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE
MARGINAL WITH TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NW GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SE VA. HOWEVER MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING REMAINS BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER
JET STREAK PARALLELS THE APPALACHIANS. WAVES OF PRECIP CONTINUE TO
STREAM ALONG THIS ZONE. SOME OF IT IS MODERATE AT TIMES...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE PROLONGED ENOUGH AT ANY ONE LOCATION TO CAUSE
ISSUES. CAA HAS BEGUN ON NW WINDS...WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
40S. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX AND AT SOME POINT ALL SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST TODAY AND A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE SE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND POPS A LITTLE IN TIME...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A NW TO SE DRYING TREND THROUGH TODAY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP
BAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN UNDER CAA. THERE IS A TREND IN GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
THIS CHANCE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER TOWARD CENTRAL VA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO ADD TO TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO THIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT ARCTIC AIRMASS SEEN IN THETA-E FIELDS.
A SECOND UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE LIFTING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH. SEEING AN INCREASE IN MEAN RH AND MODEST LIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TIMING. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 20S
FOR THE REST EXCEPT EAST OF I-95.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD AND CAA WILL
CONTINUE. AN ALMOST WINTRY-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE CLOUD LAYER INTERSECTING THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW -10C...LEADING
TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE...EVEN IF THE SUN IS OUT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. EVEN IF SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING...THAT LAYER WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW AND THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE IN ANY SHOWER WOULD LIKELY BE
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST U.S. TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT ONLY TO BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SWING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...REACHING THE
LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MARYLAND...SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO
GIVE IN TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE MASON DIXON AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
RIDGE ALONG IT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE WEEK DESPITE THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WITH ANY KIND OF AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE THE REASON FOR THIS TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IN A FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO FALL...MODERATELY IN
POCKETS... ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS PRIMARILY FALLING OUT OF A VFR
BASE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AT TIMES. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRECIP ENDS. NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR
MRB...MTN OR BWI FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SE OF THE WATERS. RAIN WITH REDUCED VSBY
WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY...TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS AT TIMES. THE SCA
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE
MARGINAL WITH TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NW GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW




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