Home > Products > State Listing > Delaware Data
Latest:
 AFDPHI |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST MOUNT POCONO AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
BERKS CO AND LEHIGH VALLEY WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS. IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE WERE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND THE FRONT MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THEN, NEAR DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS CO WHICH HAD
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE AREA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
     AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KTTN, KRDG, KABE, KACY AND KMIV
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, AREAS AROUND
KRDG AND KABE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE VERY WET GROUND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG. KTTN, KMIV, AND KACY THOUGH THEY DID NOT
HAVE AS MUCH RAIN EARLIER, WILL SEE THE DRIER AIR LATER, THUS
ARE STARTING WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, IF NOT SOONER.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT, THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST MOUNT POCONO AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
BERKS CO AND LEHIGH VALLEY WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS. IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE WERE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND THE FRONT MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THEN, NEAR DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS CO WHICH HAD
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE AREA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
     AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KTTN, KRDG, KABE, KACY AND KMIV
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, AREAS AROUND
KRDG AND KABE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE VERY WET GROUND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG. KTTN, KMIV, AND KACY THOUGH THEY DID NOT
HAVE AS MUCH RAIN EARLIER, WILL SEE THE DRIER AIR LATER, THUS
ARE STARTING WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, IF NOT SOONER.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT, THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION AT 330 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION PASSES.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 PM AND 200 AM.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AROUND 1930Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG,
KABE AND KMIV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE
WATER TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION AT 330 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION PASSES.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 PM AND 200 AM.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AROUND 1930Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG,
KABE AND KMIV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE
WATER TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301539
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT WAS APPROACHING SCRANTON, HARRISBURG AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1530Z. THE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301539
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT WAS APPROACHING SCRANTON, HARRISBURG AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1530Z. THE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LINGERING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AROUND 930 AM. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA AT MID MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1330Z.
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS OR VFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ARRIVE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO
STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO OUR AREA TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, THERE WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER NOON, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100. THEREFORE, WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT
AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR
A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE NEXT
ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KRDG THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY WITH SHOWERS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR DECKS IMPACTING KRDG AND POSSIBLY KABE
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST,
EXITING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH KACY BETWEEN 22-01Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ARRIVE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO
STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO OUR AREA TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, THERE WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER NOON, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100. THEREFORE, WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT
AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR
A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE NEXT
ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KRDG THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY WITH SHOWERS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR DECKS IMPACTING KRDG AND POSSIBLY KABE
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST,
EXITING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH KACY BETWEEN 22-01Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE DELMARVA.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHCS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING S TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND THE FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE DELMARVA.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHCS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING S TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND THE FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THOSE AREAS, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE DAYTIME CUMULUS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA
AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THOSE AREAS, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE DAYTIME CUMULUS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA
AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities