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000
FXUS61 KPHI 310953
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
453 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THEN WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DECREASE, AND WITH THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE LOW, EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY/S
HIGHS. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG
WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID LAYER CLOUD DECK (AROUND 4000 FT AGL) WHICH COULD ADVECT OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST, PULLING AWAY FROM THE
COAST, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS LAST NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SUNDAY: LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MODERATING TREND TO
THE REGION. STAYED CLOSE TO MET AND MAV WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MODELED NAM/ECMWF TWO METER TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEM TO
COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
* WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION*

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN ARE MORE
LIKELY THAN SNOW SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE REGION. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLE RUNS A SHORTWAVE WHICH
DEVELOPS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS COME INTO THE NATIONAL UPPER
AIR NETWORK. THIS INCREASES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TO SOME DEGREE.
THE SHORTWAVE HAS ALSO TRENDED STRONGER AND SHARPER WHICH IN TURN
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL CYCLES. THE UKMET, NAM AND SREF HAVE BEEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST SOUTH OF THE MODELS WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH AND RUNG OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE STORM. THE NAM SEEMS TO WARM AT THIS JUNCTURE AND
THE ECMWF TO COOL.

PERIODS OF SNOW DEVELOP FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH RAIN IN THE
DELMARVA AROUND 00Z MONDAY. THIS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FOR
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND A WINTRY MIX JUST NORTHWEST OF
PHILADELPHIA. FURTHER NORTH SNOW, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
CONTINUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS. A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF IS LIKELY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE CHANGEOVER LINE NORTH. ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM AN
INCH OR TWO IN PHL TO SIX TO TEN INCHES IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
EVEN CLOSE TO A FOOT FOR THE POCONOS. WHERE THIS CUTOFF SETS UP
WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE
LOW TRACK. ANY SHIFTS IN TRACK COULD ALTER AMOUNTS WITH FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN FOR THE LEHIGH
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NJ AND THE POCONOS FOR MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL OVER SIX INCHES FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY PERIOD.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: BEHIND THE SYSTEM, A PRETTY POTENT BLAST OF
COLD COMES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. 925 AND 850 MB BOTH WILL BE
WELL BELOW -10C COUPLED WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS
QUICKLY MODIFIES BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. SNOWCOVER LEADS TO GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THINKING IS ECMWF/ MEX MOS
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY BE A TOUCH TO WARM TUESDAY THEN TO COOL
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT  WHICH PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
TIME TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD BUT LEFT IN CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST EAST WITH THE GFS, CMC AND
UKMET HINTING AT THIS THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT AGL COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
AS IT DOES, THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT KABE, BUT THAT IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 10KT WITH FEW GUSTS. AFTER 00Z,
EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: VFR, INCREASING CLOUDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN RAIN AND SNOW.
MAINLY SNOW FOR KRDG, KTTN AND KABE WITH MAINLY RAIN AT OTHER TAF
SITES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
MAY NOT DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
GUSTS DO DROP BELOW GALES, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SCA SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST
SCA WIND GUSTS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AS WATER LEVELS AT REEDY POINT ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2
FT BELOW MLLW. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS
MORNINGS LOW TIDE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310953
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
453 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THEN WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DECREASE, AND WITH THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE LOW, EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY/S
HIGHS. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG
WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID LAYER CLOUD DECK (AROUND 4000 FT AGL) WHICH COULD ADVECT OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST, PULLING AWAY FROM THE
COAST, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS LAST NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SUNDAY: LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MODERATING TREND TO
THE REGION. STAYED CLOSE TO MET AND MAV WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MODELED NAM/ECMWF TWO METER TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEM TO
COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
* WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION*

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN ARE MORE
LIKELY THAN SNOW SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE REGION. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLE RUNS A SHORTWAVE WHICH
DEVELOPS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS COME INTO THE NATIONAL UPPER
AIR NETWORK. THIS INCREASES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TO SOME DEGREE.
THE SHORTWAVE HAS ALSO TRENDED STRONGER AND SHARPER WHICH IN TURN
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL CYCLES. THE UKMET, NAM AND SREF HAVE BEEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST SOUTH OF THE MODELS WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH AND RUNG OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE STORM. THE NAM SEEMS TO WARM AT THIS JUNCTURE AND
THE ECMWF TO COOL.

PERIODS OF SNOW DEVELOP FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH RAIN IN THE
DELMARVA AROUND 00Z MONDAY. THIS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FOR
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND A WINTRY MIX JUST NORTHWEST OF
PHILADELPHIA. FURTHER NORTH SNOW, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
CONTINUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS. A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF IS LIKELY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE CHANGEOVER LINE NORTH. ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM AN
INCH OR TWO IN PHL TO SIX TO TEN INCHES IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
EVEN CLOSE TO A FOOT FOR THE POCONOS. WHERE THIS CUTOFF SETS UP
WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE
LOW TRACK. ANY SHIFTS IN TRACK COULD ALTER AMOUNTS WITH FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN FOR THE LEHIGH
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NJ AND THE POCONOS FOR MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL OVER SIX INCHES FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY PERIOD.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: BEHIND THE SYSTEM, A PRETTY POTENT BLAST OF
COLD COMES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. 925 AND 850 MB BOTH WILL BE
WELL BELOW -10C COUPLED WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS
QUICKLY MODIFIES BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. SNOWCOVER LEADS TO GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THINKING IS ECMWF/ MEX MOS
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY BE A TOUCH TO WARM TUESDAY THEN TO COOL
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT  WHICH PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
TIME TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD BUT LEFT IN CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST EAST WITH THE GFS, CMC AND
UKMET HINTING AT THIS THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT AGL COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
AS IT DOES, THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT KABE, BUT THAT IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 10KT WITH FEW GUSTS. AFTER 00Z,
EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: VFR, INCREASING CLOUDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN RAIN AND SNOW.
MAINLY SNOW FOR KRDG, KTTN AND KABE WITH MAINLY RAIN AT OTHER TAF
SITES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
MAY NOT DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
GUSTS DO DROP BELOW GALES, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SCA SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST
SCA WIND GUSTS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AS WATER LEVELS AT REEDY POINT ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2
FT BELOW MLLW. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS
MORNINGS LOW TIDE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
433 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THEN WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DECREASE, AND WITH THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE LOW, EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY/S
HIGHS. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG
WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID LAYER CLOUD DECK (AROUND 4000 FT AGL) WHICH COULD ADVECT OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST, PULLING AWAY FROM THE
COAST, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS LAST NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFD WILL BE REISSUED SOON WITH LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT AGL COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
AS IT DOES, THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT KABE, BUT THAT IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 10KT WITH FEW GUSTS. AFTER 00Z,
EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...


&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
MAY NOT DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
GUSTS DO DROP BELOW GALES, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

OUTLOOK...


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AS WATER LEVELS AT REEDY POINT ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2
FT BELOW MLLW. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS
MORNINGS LOW TIDE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
433 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THEN WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DECREASE, AND WITH THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE LOW, EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY/S
HIGHS. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG
WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID LAYER CLOUD DECK (AROUND 4000 FT AGL) WHICH COULD ADVECT OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST, PULLING AWAY FROM THE
COAST, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS LAST NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFD WILL BE REISSUED SOON WITH LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT AGL COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
AS IT DOES, THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT KABE, BUT THAT IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 10KT WITH FEW GUSTS. AFTER 00Z,
EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...


&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
MAY NOT DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
GUSTS DO DROP BELOW GALES, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

OUTLOOK...


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AS WATER LEVELS AT REEDY POINT ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2
FT BELOW MLLW. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS
MORNINGS LOW TIDE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
433 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THEN WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DECREASE, AND WITH THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE LOW, EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY/S
HIGHS. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG
WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID LAYER CLOUD DECK (AROUND 4000 FT AGL) WHICH COULD ADVECT OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST, PULLING AWAY FROM THE
COAST, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS LAST NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFD WILL BE REISSUED SOON WITH LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT AGL COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
AS IT DOES, THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT KABE, BUT THAT IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 10KT WITH FEW GUSTS. AFTER 00Z,
EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...


&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
MAY NOT DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
GUSTS DO DROP BELOW GALES, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

OUTLOOK...


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AS WATER LEVELS AT REEDY POINT ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2
FT BELOW MLLW. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS
MORNINGS LOW TIDE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
433 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THEN WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DECREASE, AND WITH THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE LOW, EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY/S
HIGHS. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG
WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID LAYER CLOUD DECK (AROUND 4000 FT AGL) WHICH COULD ADVECT OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST, PULLING AWAY FROM THE
COAST, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS LAST NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFD WILL BE REISSUED SOON WITH LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT AGL COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
AS IT DOES, THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT KABE, BUT THAT IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 10KT WITH FEW GUSTS. AFTER 00Z,
EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...


&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
MAY NOT DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
GUSTS DO DROP BELOW GALES, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

OUTLOOK...


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AS WATER LEVELS AT REEDY POINT ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2
FT BELOW MLLW. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS
MORNINGS LOW TIDE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE CANADA MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, IT WILL REMAIN VERY
WINDY AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BY MORNING. ALSO, A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE AREA OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING HAD
ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND MOVED OFF THE COAST BY 900 PM. OTHER THAN
SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS, NO ADDITIONAL SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED FOR OUR REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT VERY COLD...EVEN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL MAKE OUTSIDE
CONDITIONS FEEL BITTER COLD. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT
ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS UP NORTH...AND IN THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
AS ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY HANGS BACK BEFORE SLIDING
INTO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING UP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELAXES SOME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AMPLIFIES ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT REACHES OR MOVES OFF THE COAST. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH THROUGH MONDAY, THEN GENERALLY UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ALSO
WPC.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL TAKE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WITH IT. AS THE TROUGHING EASES IN THE EAST SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ENERGY DIVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. A DEVELOPING AND PROBABLY STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE ZONE
DOWNSTREAM SHOULD HELP HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. ALL OF THIS WILL ASSIST IN SHARPENING A BAROCLINIC ZONE
DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST, WHERE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG IT. BEFORE WE GET TO THAT THOUGH, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
RATHER COLD ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY. AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE RAMPING UP OF WAA ALOFT AND THE
START OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION THOUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS
DRIVES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
MORNING. THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BE SUCH TO
ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD, AND THIS
TRACK WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER AXIS
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A STORM AFFECTING OUR
AREA. AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. WHERE THIS OCCURS ALONG
WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN ZONES IS LESS CERTAIN ATTM,
ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS POINTING TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES HAVING THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHERE A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
WEST-EAST BANDS OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE FARTHER NORTH
ONE GOES, THE BETTER CHC OF ALL SNOW. THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS
CERTAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE INJECTION OF WARMER AIR
FOR A TIME SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
EVEN AN AREA OF RAIN. WHERE THIS OCCURS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE
ATTM AS THE DIFFERENCE IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR A SOME NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT. THE NAM/SREF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE WELL CLUSTERED
GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVEN STRONGER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS. DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF WE
ADDED MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN SOME RAIN ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WE DID NOT GO
AS FAR NORTH THOUGH WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKE THE NAM
WOULD SUGGEST. ANY RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS
INTO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SINCE WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
WHERE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ZONE MAY OCCUR, WE ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP
/THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY/ LEANED TOWARD THE WPC/WWD GUIDANCE AFTER
EARLIER COLLABORATION, AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS MAP IS
HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END JUST AS FAST. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK IN MANY AREAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BOTH
PLUS AND MINUS, ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH A SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-10C TO -15C RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AND
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN LOW
GETS PUSHED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE
IS DIFFERING OPINIONS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHICH LOW WILL
WIN THE BATTLE AND IN TURN WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS WE MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COLD ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL WILL PERSIST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30S AND PERHAPS AROUND 40 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR TO START SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS,
THEN CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
STORM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR
KABE, KRDG AND KTTN /LOWEST VISIBILITIES/, THEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING AT KPHL, KPNE
AND KILG, WITH EVEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME AT KMIV AND KACY.
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE TRANSITION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR TERMINALS, AND AS OF NOW THE
HIGHER CHANCE OF THIS IS NORTH OF KPHL.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING CONTINUE. EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY. SEAS IN
THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO LESS THAN GALE
FORCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND FALL BELOW 5
FEET AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE CANADA MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, IT WILL REMAIN VERY
WINDY AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BY MORNING. ALSO, A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE AREA OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING HAD
ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND MOVED OFF THE COAST BY 900 PM. OTHER THAN
SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS, NO ADDITIONAL SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED FOR OUR REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT VERY COLD...EVEN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL MAKE OUTSIDE
CONDITIONS FEEL BITTER COLD. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT
ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS UP NORTH...AND IN THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
AS ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY HANGS BACK BEFORE SLIDING
INTO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING UP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELAXES SOME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AMPLIFIES ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT REACHES OR MOVES OFF THE COAST. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH THROUGH MONDAY, THEN GENERALLY UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ALSO
WPC.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL TAKE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WITH IT. AS THE TROUGHING EASES IN THE EAST SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ENERGY DIVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. A DEVELOPING AND PROBABLY STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE ZONE
DOWNSTREAM SHOULD HELP HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. ALL OF THIS WILL ASSIST IN SHARPENING A BAROCLINIC ZONE
DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST, WHERE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG IT. BEFORE WE GET TO THAT THOUGH, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
RATHER COLD ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY. AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE RAMPING UP OF WAA ALOFT AND THE
START OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION THOUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS
DRIVES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
MORNING. THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BE SUCH TO
ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD, AND THIS
TRACK WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER AXIS
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A STORM AFFECTING OUR
AREA. AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. WHERE THIS OCCURS ALONG
WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN ZONES IS LESS CERTAIN ATTM,
ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS POINTING TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES HAVING THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHERE A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
WEST-EAST BANDS OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE FARTHER NORTH
ONE GOES, THE BETTER CHC OF ALL SNOW. THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS
CERTAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE INJECTION OF WARMER AIR
FOR A TIME SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
EVEN AN AREA OF RAIN. WHERE THIS OCCURS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE
ATTM AS THE DIFFERENCE IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR A SOME NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT. THE NAM/SREF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE WELL CLUSTERED
GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVEN STRONGER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS. DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF WE
ADDED MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN SOME RAIN ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WE DID NOT GO
AS FAR NORTH THOUGH WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKE THE NAM
WOULD SUGGEST. ANY RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS
INTO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SINCE WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
WHERE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ZONE MAY OCCUR, WE ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP
/THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY/ LEANED TOWARD THE WPC/WWD GUIDANCE AFTER
EARLIER COLLABORATION, AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS MAP IS
HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END JUST AS FAST. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK IN MANY AREAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BOTH
PLUS AND MINUS, ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH A SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-10C TO -15C RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AND
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN LOW
GETS PUSHED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE
IS DIFFERING OPINIONS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHICH LOW WILL
WIN THE BATTLE AND IN TURN WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS WE MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COLD ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL WILL PERSIST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30S AND PERHAPS AROUND 40 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR TO START SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS,
THEN CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
STORM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR
KABE, KRDG AND KTTN /LOWEST VISIBILITIES/, THEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING AT KPHL, KPNE
AND KILG, WITH EVEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME AT KMIV AND KACY.
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE TRANSITION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR TERMINALS, AND AS OF NOW THE
HIGHER CHANCE OF THIS IS NORTH OF KPHL.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING CONTINUE. EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY. SEAS IN
THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO LESS THAN GALE
FORCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND FALL BELOW 5
FEET AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 302306
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
606 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE CANADA MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, IT WILL
REMAIN VERY WINDY AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BY MORNING. ALSO, A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO STRETCH FROM BERKS
COUNTY AND LEHIGH COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PHILADELPHIA TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AT 600 PM. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS.
WE WERE ABLE TO TRACE THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE FOR THE SNOW
SHOWERS BACK TO LAKE ONTARIO. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT VERY COLD...EVEN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL MAKE OUTSIDE
CONDITIONS FEEL BITTER COLD. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT
ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS UP NORTH...AND IN THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
AS ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY HANGS BACK BEFORE SLIDING
INTO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING UP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELAXES SOME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AMPLIFIES ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT REACHES OR MOVES OFF THE COAST. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH THROUGH MONDAY, THEN GENERALLY UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ALSO
WPC.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL TAKE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WITH IT. AS THE TROUGHING EASES IN THE EAST SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ENERGY DIVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. A DEVELOPING AND PROBABLY STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE ZONE
DOWNSTREAM SHOULD HELP HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. ALL OF THIS WILL ASSIST IN SHARPENING A BAROCLINIC ZONE
DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST, WHERE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG IT. BEFORE WE GET TO THAT THOUGH, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
RATHER COLD ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY. AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE RAMPING UP OF WAA ALOFT AND THE
START OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION THOUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS
DRIVES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
MORNING. THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BE SUCH TO
ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD, AND THIS
TRACK WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER AXIS
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A STORM AFFECTING OUR
AREA. AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. WHERE THIS OCCURS ALONG
WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN ZONES IS LESS CERTAIN ATTM,
ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS POINTING TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES HAVING THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHERE A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
WEST-EAST BANDS OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE FARTHER NORTH
ONE GOES, THE BETTER CHC OF ALL SNOW. THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS
CERTAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE INJECTION OF WARMER AIR
FOR A TIME SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
EVEN AN AREA OF RAIN. WHERE THIS OCCURS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE
ATTM AS THE DIFFERENCE IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR A SOME NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT. THE NAM/SREF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE WELL CLUSTERED
GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVEN STRONGER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS. DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF WE
ADDED MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN SOME RAIN ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WE DID NOT GO
AS FAR NORTH THOUGH WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKE THE NAM
WOULD SUGGEST. ANY RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS
INTO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SINCE WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
WHERE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ZONE MAY OCCUR, WE ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP
/THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY/ LEANED TOWARD THE WPC/WWD GUIDANCE AFTER
EARLIER COLLABORATION, AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS MAP IS
HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END JUST AS FAST. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK IN MANY AREAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BOTH
PLUS AND MINUS, ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH A SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-10C TO -15C RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AND
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN LOW
GETS PUSHED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE
IS DIFFERING OPINIONS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHICH LOW WILL
WIN THE BATTLE AND IN TURN WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS WE MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COLD ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR TAF SITES SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE ABOUT 0100Z. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY VALUES AND CEILINGS UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 0100Z
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL WILL PERSIST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30S AND PERHAPS AROUND 40 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR TO START SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS,
THEN CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
STORM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR
KABE, KRDG AND KTTN /LOWEST VISIBILITIES/, THEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING AT KPHL, KPNE
AND KILG, WITH EVEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME AT KMIV AND KACY.
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE TRANSITION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR TERMINALS, AND AS OF NOW THE
HIGHER CHANCE OF THIS IS NORTH OF KPHL.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING CONTINUE. EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY. SEAS IN
THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO LESS THAN GALE
FORCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND FALL BELOW 5
FEET AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 302306
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
606 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE CANADA MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, IT WILL
REMAIN VERY WINDY AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BY MORNING. ALSO, A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO STRETCH FROM BERKS
COUNTY AND LEHIGH COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PHILADELPHIA TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AT 600 PM. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS.
WE WERE ABLE TO TRACE THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE FOR THE SNOW
SHOWERS BACK TO LAKE ONTARIO. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT VERY COLD...EVEN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL MAKE OUTSIDE
CONDITIONS FEEL BITTER COLD. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT
ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS UP NORTH...AND IN THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
AS ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY HANGS BACK BEFORE SLIDING
INTO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING UP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELAXES SOME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AMPLIFIES ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT REACHES OR MOVES OFF THE COAST. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH THROUGH MONDAY, THEN GENERALLY UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ALSO
WPC.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL TAKE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WITH IT. AS THE TROUGHING EASES IN THE EAST SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ENERGY DIVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. A DEVELOPING AND PROBABLY STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE ZONE
DOWNSTREAM SHOULD HELP HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. ALL OF THIS WILL ASSIST IN SHARPENING A BAROCLINIC ZONE
DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST, WHERE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG IT. BEFORE WE GET TO THAT THOUGH, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
RATHER COLD ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY. AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE RAMPING UP OF WAA ALOFT AND THE
START OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION THOUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS
DRIVES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
MORNING. THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BE SUCH TO
ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD, AND THIS
TRACK WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER AXIS
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A STORM AFFECTING OUR
AREA. AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, IS
ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. WHERE THIS OCCURS ALONG
WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN ZONES IS LESS CERTAIN ATTM,
ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS POINTING TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES HAVING THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHERE A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
WEST-EAST BANDS OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE FARTHER NORTH
ONE GOES, THE BETTER CHC OF ALL SNOW. THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS
CERTAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE INJECTION OF WARMER AIR
FOR A TIME SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
EVEN AN AREA OF RAIN. WHERE THIS OCCURS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE
ATTM AS THE DIFFERENCE IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR A SOME NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT. THE NAM/SREF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE WELL CLUSTERED
GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVEN STRONGER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS. DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF WE
ADDED MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN SOME RAIN ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WE DID NOT GO
AS FAR NORTH THOUGH WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKE THE NAM
WOULD SUGGEST. ANY RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS
INTO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SINCE WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
WHERE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ZONE MAY OCCUR, WE ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP
/THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY/ LEANED TOWARD THE WPC/WWD GUIDANCE AFTER
EARLIER COLLABORATION, AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS MAP IS
HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END JUST AS FAST. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK IN MANY AREAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BOTH
PLUS AND MINUS, ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH A SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-10C TO -15C RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AND
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN LOW
GETS PUSHED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE
IS DIFFERING OPINIONS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHICH LOW WILL
WIN THE BATTLE AND IN TURN WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS WE MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COLD ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR TAF SITES SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE ABOUT 0100Z. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY VALUES AND CEILINGS UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 0100Z
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL WILL PERSIST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30S AND PERHAPS AROUND 40 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR TO START SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS,
THEN CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
STORM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR
KABE, KRDG AND KTTN /LOWEST VISIBILITIES/, THEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING AT KPHL, KPNE
AND KILG, WITH EVEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME AT KMIV AND KACY.
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE TRANSITION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR TERMINALS, AND AS OF NOW THE
HIGHER CHANCE OF THIS IS NORTH OF KPHL.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING CONTINUE. EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY. SEAS IN
THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO LESS THAN GALE
FORCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND FALL BELOW 5
FEET AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 302105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE CANADA MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL END AFTER SUNSET...THEN
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. WITH A SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND IN THE
NORTH, AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE...ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN TO ABOUT ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND INTO
THE MID TEENS SOUTH. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH MUCH
HIGHER GUSTS...APPROACHING 50 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WIND
CHILL FACTORS WILL DIP DOWN BELOW ZERO IN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CARBON/MONROE/SUSSEX COUNTIES...WIND CHILL FACTORS IN THE RANGE OF
-15 TO -20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED...SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. FOR ALL AREAS...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR GUSTY WINDS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED TO POPULATE THE TEMPERATURE
GRIDS, AND THIS BLEND WAS UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR
SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT VERY COLD...EVEN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL MAKE OUTSIDE CONDITIONS FEEL
BITTER COLD. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS
UP NORTH...AND IN THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS
ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY HANGS BACK BEFORE SLIDING INTO
MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING UP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
THERE REMAINS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELAXES SOME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES
ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT EASTWARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT REACHES OR
MOVES OFF THE COAST. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN GENERALLY UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ALSO WPC.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL TAKE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH IT. AS THE
TROUGHING EASES IN THE EAST SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR
AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ENERGY DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A DEVELOPING
AND PROBABLY STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE ZONE DOWNSTREAM SHOULD HELP
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ALL OF THIS WILL
ASSIST IN SHARPENING A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST,
WHERE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG IT. BEFORE WE GET TO
THAT THOUGH, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER COLD ALTHOUGH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY. AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
RAMPING UP OF WAA ALOFT AND THE START OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THOUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS
DRIVES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING.
THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BE SUCH TO ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD, AND THIS TRACK WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, THERE IS A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A STORM AFFECTING OUR AREA. AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, IS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF OUR CWA. WHERE THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN
ZONES IS LESS CERTAIN ATTM, ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS POINTING TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
WHERE A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEST-EAST BANDS
OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES, THE
BETTER CHC OF ALL SNOW. THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CERTAIN SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE INJECTION OF WARMER AIR FOR A TIME SHOULD
RESULT IN A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH EVEN AN AREA OF RAIN.
WHERE THIS OCCURS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM AS THE DIFFERENCE IN
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DOOR OPEN FOR A SOME NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT. THE NAM/SREF IS MORE AMPLIFIED, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT FROM THE WELL CLUSTERED GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVEN STRONGER
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS. DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE,
BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF WE ADDED MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN SOME RAIN ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. WE DID NOT GO AS FAR NORTH THOUGH WITH THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKE THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST. ANY RAIN AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SINCE WE
ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHERE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ZONE MAY
OCCUR, WE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OUR
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP /THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY/ LEANED TOWARD THE
WPC/WWD GUIDANCE AFTER EARLIER COLLABORATION, AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS MAP IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END JUST AS FAST. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AND WE
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BOTH PLUS AND MINUS,
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH A SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-10C TO -15C RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AND
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN LOW
GETS PUSHED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE
IS DIFFERING OPINIONS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHICH LOW WILL
WIN THE BATTLE AND IN TURN WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS WE MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COLD ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SCHUYLKILL AND CARBON
COUNTIES SE TO THE PHILADELPHIA AREA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AND AFFECTING SEVERAL OF OUR TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS
AND CEILING HEIGHTS COULD TEMPORARILY DIP INTO THE MIFR RANGE AT
TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUTS DOWN. THE PRIMARY TAF SITES WITH A
CONCERN ARE PHL, PNE, RDG, ILG AND TTN.

THEN THE MAIN STORY SWITCHES TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
5 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR TO START SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, THEN
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR KABE,
KRDG AND KTTN /LOWEST VISIBILITIES/, THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING AT KPHL, KPNE AND KILG, WITH
EVEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME AT KMIV AND KACY. ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE TRANSITION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE
TIMING CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOME OF
OUR TERMINALS, AND AS OF NOW THE HIGHER CHANCE OF THIS IS NORTH OF
KPHL.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING CONTINUE. EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY. SEAS IN
THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE QUICK MOVEMENT
OF THE STORM SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND FALL BELOW 5
FEET AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA/MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE CANADA MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL END AFTER SUNSET...THEN
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. WITH A SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND IN THE
NORTH, AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE...ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN TO ABOUT ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND INTO
THE MID TEENS SOUTH. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH MUCH
HIGHER GUSTS...APPROACHING 50 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WIND
CHILL FACTORS WILL DIP DOWN BELOW ZERO IN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CARBON/MONROE/SUSSEX COUNTIES...WIND CHILL FACTORS IN THE RANGE OF
-15 TO -20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED...SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. FOR ALL AREAS...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR GUSTY WINDS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED TO POPULATE THE TEMPERATURE
GRIDS, AND THIS BLEND WAS UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR
SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT VERY COLD...EVEN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL MAKE OUTSIDE CONDITIONS FEEL
BITTER COLD. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS
UP NORTH...AND IN THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS
ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY HANGS BACK BEFORE SLIDING INTO
MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING UP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
THERE REMAINS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELAXES SOME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES
ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT EASTWARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT REACHES OR
MOVES OFF THE COAST. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN GENERALLY UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ALSO WPC.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL TAKE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH IT. AS THE
TROUGHING EASES IN THE EAST SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR
AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ENERGY DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A DEVELOPING
AND PROBABLY STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE ZONE DOWNSTREAM SHOULD HELP
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ALL OF THIS WILL
ASSIST IN SHARPENING A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST,
WHERE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG IT. BEFORE WE GET TO
THAT THOUGH, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER COLD ALTHOUGH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY. AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
RAMPING UP OF WAA ALOFT AND THE START OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THOUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS
DRIVES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING.
THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BE SUCH TO ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD, AND THIS TRACK WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, THERE IS A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A STORM AFFECTING OUR AREA. AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, IS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF OUR CWA. WHERE THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN
ZONES IS LESS CERTAIN ATTM, ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS POINTING TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
WHERE A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WAA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEST-EAST BANDS
OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES, THE
BETTER CHC OF ALL SNOW. THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CERTAIN SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE INJECTION OF WARMER AIR FOR A TIME SHOULD
RESULT IN A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH EVEN AN AREA OF RAIN.
WHERE THIS OCCURS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM AS THE DIFFERENCE IN
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DOOR OPEN FOR A SOME NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT. THE NAM/SREF IS MORE AMPLIFIED, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT FROM THE WELL CLUSTERED GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVEN STRONGER
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS. DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE,
BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF WE ADDED MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN SOME RAIN ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. WE DID NOT GO AS FAR NORTH THOUGH WITH THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKE THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST. ANY RAIN AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SINCE WE
ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHERE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ZONE MAY
OCCUR, WE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OUR
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP /THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY/ LEANED TOWARD THE
WPC/WWD GUIDANCE AFTER EARLIER COLLABORATION, AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS MAP IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END JUST AS FAST. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AND WE
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BOTH PLUS AND MINUS,
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WINDS REMAINING UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH A SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-10C TO -15C RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AND
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN LOW
GETS PUSHED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE
IS DIFFERING OPINIONS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHICH LOW WILL
WIN THE BATTLE AND IN TURN WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS WE MONITOR THE TRENDS OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COLD ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SCHUYLKILL AND CARBON
COUNTIES SE TO THE PHILADELPHIA AREA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AND AFFECTING SEVERAL OF OUR TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS
AND CEILING HEIGHTS COULD TEMPORARILY DIP INTO THE MIFR RANGE AT
TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUTS DOWN. THE PRIMARY TAF SITES WITH A
CONCERN ARE PHL, PNE, RDG, ILG AND TTN.

THEN THE MAIN STORY SWITCHES TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
5 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR TO START SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, THEN
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR KABE,
KRDG AND KTTN /LOWEST VISIBILITIES/, THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING AT KPHL, KPNE AND KILG, WITH
EVEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME AT KMIV AND KACY. ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE TRANSITION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE
TIMING CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOME OF
OUR TERMINALS, AND AS OF NOW THE HIGHER CHANCE OF THIS IS NORTH OF
KPHL.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING CONTINUE. EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY. SEAS IN
THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE QUICK MOVEMENT
OF THE STORM SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND FALL BELOW 5
FEET AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA/MIKETTA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 301758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER CONDITIONS ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING STEADY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO DROP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH...WITH SUBSIDE AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FEET AT MANY TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR. THE
BIG ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KT AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIP. ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
HRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTS
IN THE 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN/MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AT PRESS TIME WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DUSTING AT MOST IN MANY
LOCATIONS, BUT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-78...COULD SEE
JUST A BIT MORE. THE MAIN STORY LATER TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR FROM TIME
TO TIME BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY AT OUR
NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRATOCU DECK THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE WOULD
YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN/MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AT PRESS TIME WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DUSTING AT MOST IN MANY
LOCATIONS, BUT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-78...COULD SEE
JUST A BIT MORE. THE MAIN STORY LATER TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR FROM TIME
TO TIME BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY AT OUR
NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRATOCU DECK THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE WOULD
YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN/MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

THREE AREAS OF PRECIP WERE NOTED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 430
AM, EACH ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THERE
WAS VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THAT HAS LINGERED ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SECOND AREA TO NOTE WAS A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO TO THE EAST OF I-95. HIRES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHIELD
BLOSSOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY THERE WAS AN AREA OF
SNOW BACK TO THE WEST OVER STATE COLLEGE AND PITTSBURGH. THEREFORE,
EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW (MIXING WITH RAIN TOWARD THE COAST) THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT PICK UP MUCH MORE
THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL (AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
SNOW). THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NJ MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL INCH
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST PERSISTENT DURING
THE MORNING.

THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MARKING THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC
AIR. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS FRONT AS LAPSE RATES
BECOME VERY STEEP AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 4 PM
TODAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH INITIALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THRU ABOUT 15Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBY TO MVFR MAY
OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRATOCU DECK THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE WOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT
TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

THREE AREAS OF PRECIP WERE NOTED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 430
AM, EACH ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THERE
WAS VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THAT HAS LINGERED ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SECOND AREA TO NOTE WAS A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO TO THE EAST OF I-95. HIRES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHIELD
BLOSSOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY THERE WAS AN AREA OF
SNOW BACK TO THE WEST OVER STATE COLLEGE AND PITTSBURGH. THEREFORE,
EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW (MIXING WITH RAIN TOWARD THE COAST) THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT PICK UP MUCH MORE
THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL (AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
SNOW). THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NJ MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL INCH
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST PERSISTENT DURING
THE MORNING.

THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MARKING THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC
AIR. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS FRONT AS LAPSE RATES
BECOME VERY STEEP AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 4 PM
TODAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH INITIALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THRU ABOUT 15Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBY TO MVFR MAY
OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRATOCU DECK THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE WOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT
TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

THREE AREAS OF PRECIP WERE NOTED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 430
AM, EACH ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THERE
WAS VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THAT HAS LINGERED ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SECOND AREA TO NOTE WAS A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO TO THE EAST OF I-95. HIRES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHIELD
BLOSSOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY THERE WAS AN AREA OF
SNOW BACK TO THE WEST OVER STATE COLLEGE AND PITTSBURGH. THEREFORE,
EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW (MIXING WITH RAIN TOWARD THE COAST) THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT PICK UP MUCH MORE
THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL (AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
SNOW). THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NJ MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL INCH
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST PERSISTENT DURING
THE MORNING.

THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MARKING THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC
AIR. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS FRONT AS LAPSE RATES
BECOME VERY STEEP AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 4 PM
TODAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH INITIALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THRU ABOUT 15Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBY TO MVFR MAY
OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRATOCU DECK THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE WOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT
TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

THREE AREAS OF PRECIP WERE NOTED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 430
AM, EACH ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THERE
WAS VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THAT HAS LINGERED ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SECOND AREA TO NOTE WAS A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO TO THE EAST OF I-95. HIRES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHIELD
BLOSSOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY THERE WAS AN AREA OF
SNOW BACK TO THE WEST OVER STATE COLLEGE AND PITTSBURGH. THEREFORE,
EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW (MIXING WITH RAIN TOWARD THE COAST) THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT PICK UP MUCH MORE
THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL (AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
SNOW). THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NJ MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL INCH
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST PERSISTENT DURING
THE MORNING.

THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MARKING THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC
AIR. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS FRONT AS LAPSE RATES
BECOME VERY STEEP AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 4 PM
TODAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH INITIALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THRU ABOUT 15Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBY TO MVFR MAY
OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRATOCU DECK THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE WOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT
TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL
AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT, ALONG WITH MUCH
OF THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS IT NEARS OUR REGION, ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WE ARE EXPECTING A
SECOND SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW AT THAT TIME, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS THAN THIS EVENING`S SNOWFALL.

WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL IDEA OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO APPEAR REASONABLE
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE
70J. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP
INTO THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO
TUCKED INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING
IT FOR NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
TEMPS FOR A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT
THE HIGH END FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVERNIGHT
AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR, AS WELL.

MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPNE, KPHL, KILG,
KMIV AND KACY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT
0800Z AND 1200Z COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO 4000 FEET OR GREATER AT ALL
EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AROUND 1200Z TO 1300Z ON FRIDAY AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMES TO AN END. THE VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS
WAKE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE
HEADLINE THIS PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL
AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT, ALONG WITH MUCH
OF THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS IT NEARS OUR REGION, ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WE ARE EXPECTING A
SECOND SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW AT THAT TIME, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS THAN THIS EVENING`S SNOWFALL.

WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL IDEA OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO APPEAR REASONABLE
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE
70J. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP
INTO THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO
TUCKED INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING
IT FOR NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
TEMPS FOR A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT
THE HIGH END FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVERNIGHT
AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR, AS WELL.

MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPNE, KPHL, KILG,
KMIV AND KACY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT
0800Z AND 1200Z COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO 4000 FEET OR GREATER AT ALL
EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AROUND 1200Z TO 1300Z ON FRIDAY AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMES TO AN END. THE VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS
WAKE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE
HEADLINE THIS PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL
AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT, ALONG WITH MUCH
OF THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS IT NEARS OUR REGION, ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WE ARE EXPECTING A
SECOND SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW AT THAT TIME, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS THAN THIS EVENING`S SNOWFALL.

WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL IDEA OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO APPEAR REASONABLE
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE
70J. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP
INTO THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO
TUCKED INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING
IT FOR NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
TEMPS FOR A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT
THE HIGH END FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVERNIGHT
AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR, AS WELL.

MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPNE, KPHL, KILG,
KMIV AND KACY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT
0800Z AND 1200Z COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO 4000 FEET OR GREATER AT ALL
EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AROUND 1200Z TO 1300Z ON FRIDAY AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMES TO AN END. THE VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS
WAKE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE
HEADLINE THIS PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL
AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT, ALONG WITH MUCH
OF THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS IT NEARS OUR REGION, ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WE ARE EXPECTING A
SECOND SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW AT THAT TIME, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS THAN THIS EVENING`S SNOWFALL.

WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL IDEA OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO APPEAR REASONABLE
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE
70J. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP
INTO THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO
TUCKED INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING
IT FOR NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
TEMPS FOR A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT
THE HIGH END FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVERNIGHT
AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR, AS WELL.

MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPNE, KPHL, KILG,
KMIV AND KACY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT
0800Z AND 1200Z COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO 4000 FEET OR GREATER AT ALL
EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AROUND 1200Z TO 1300Z ON FRIDAY AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMES TO AN END. THE VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS
WAKE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE
HEADLINE THIS PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 292315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL
AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. AT 500MB
KILZ WINDS LOOKED OFF BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 850MB TEMPS IF
ANYTHING WERE INITIALIZED 1C TOO WARM AROUND OUR REGION, IT GETS
COLDER AT 925MB WITH A 1 TO 2C WARM BIAS. ACAR SOUNDINGS AT PHL
ARE ALL STILL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB.

THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR QPF FORECAST. GIVEN IT
AND THE CAN GGEM ARE IN THE COMPROMISE POSN BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH
IS MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT LEAVE THE
I95 CORRIDOR SEWD HIGH AND DRY, WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE FORMER.

A SUB ADVISORY ONE-TWO PCPN PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. ONE TO THREE
INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WAS KEPT FROM A READING PA - TRENTON
NJ - NEW BRUNSWICK NJ LINE NORTHWESTWARD. I95 CORRIDOR WAS KEPT
UNDER AN INCH AND JUST A COATING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FIRST PCPN SHOT IS TIED TO A SHORT WAVE AND HAS THE BEST WAA
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PREDICTED. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK 1 TO 3 HR SHOT. IN SPITE OF PCPN FIELD DIFFERENCES, THE
EVENING DEEP OMEGA BETWEEN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SIDING WITH THE DRIER WRF-NMMB COLLAPSING THE
PCPN BEFORE IT GETS TO PHL. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION WAS SOUTH
OF THEIR 6HR PREDICTIONS. WE WERE MORE BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG THE
MD EASTERN SHORE AS WELL INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PTYPE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE SO DRY BELOW 700MB THAT
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY WILL TAKE PTYPE TO SNOW POSSIBLY
IN ALL PLACES. ARE SEEING SOME SLEET (SNOW PELLETS?) IN
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST. NON-FREEZING RAIN PTYPE SEEMS MOST
CONFIDENT AROUND AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BECAUSE
OF THE EVAP COOLING POWER OF THIS DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER
OUR CWA. IN THE REST OF OUR CWA, GIVEN THAT INITIALIZED 925MBS
WERE TOO WARM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT EDGE ABOVE 3C SHOULD EVAP
COOL BELOW AS SNOW STARTS FALLING. THIS GIVES SOUNDINGS THERE MORE
THE ICE PELLET LOOK TO IT AND IF INTENSITIES ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT
POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WAY SOUTH. WHILE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHEAST IS NOT ZERO, IT REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE ON OUR SIDE, SURFACE ROAD TEMPS HAVE
RESPONDED TO AROUND 40 TODAY IN DE AND AIR TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH BELOW IF TO FREEZING THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY HERE. LASTLY MOST ROADWAYS ARE HEAVILY SALTED AND ARE NOT
STARTING FROM A CLEAN SLATE. REGARDLESS WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENING.

WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR FAR
NORTH.

THEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENERGIZE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA.

TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IF NOT RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN. WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE WITH MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE
70J. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP
INTO THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO
TUCKED INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING
IT FOR NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
TEMPS FOR A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT
THE HIGH END FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM THE PHL METRO AREA
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MIXED PCPN AT
KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE
HEADLINE THIS PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 292100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. AT 500MB
KILZ WINDS LOOKED OFF BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 850MB TEMPS IF
ANYTHING WERE INITIALIZED 1C TOO WARM AROUND OUR REGION, IT GETS
COLDER AT 925MB WITH A 1 TO 2C WARM BIAS. ACAR SOUNDINGS AT PHL ARE
ALL STILL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB.

THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR QPF FORECAST. GIVEN IT AND
THE CAN GGEM ARE IN THE COMPROMISE POSN BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH IS
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT LEAVE THE I95
CORRIDOR SEWD HIGH AND DRY, WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE FORMER.

A SUB ADVISORY ONE-TWO PCPN PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  ONE TO THREE INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WAS KEPT FROM A READING PA - TRENTON NJ - NEW
BRUNSWICK NJ LINE NORTHWESTWARD. I95 CORRIDOR WAS KEPT UNDER AN INCH
AND JUST A COATING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FIRST PCPN SHOT IS TIED TO A SHORT WAVE AND HAS THE BEST WAA
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PREDICTED. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK 1 TO 3 HR SHOT. IN SPITE OF PCPN FIELD DIFFERENCES, THE
EVENING DEEP OMEGA BETWEEN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SIDING WITH THE DRIER WRF-NMMB COLLAPSING THE
PCPN BEFORE IT GETS TO PHL. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION WAS SOUTH OF
THEIR 6HR PREDICTIONS. WE WERE MORE BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG THE MD
EASTERN SHORE AS WELL INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PTYPE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE SO DRY BELOW 700MB THAT
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY WILL TAKE PTYPE TO SNOW POSSIBLY IN
ALL PLACES. ARE SEEING SOME SLEET (SNOW PELLETS?) IN OBSERVATIONS TO
OUR WEST. NON-FREEZING RAIN PTYPE SEEMS MOST CONFIDENT AROUND AND TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BECAUSE OF THE EVAP COOLING POWER
OF THIS DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. IN THE REST OF OUR
CWA, GIVEN THAT INITIALIZED 925MBS WERE TOO WARM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT EDGE ABOVE 3C SHOULD EVAP COOL BELOW AS SNOW STARTS FALLING.
THIS GIVES SOUNDINGS THERE MORE THE ICE PELLET LOOK TO IT AND IF
INTENSITIES ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WAY SOUTH. WHILE
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST IS NOT ZERO, IT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE ON OUR SIDE,
SURFACE ROAD TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED TO AROUND 40 TODAY IN DE AND AIR
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW IF TO FREEZING THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY HERE. LASTLY MOST ROADWAYS ARE HEAVILY
SALTED AND ARE NOT STARTING FROM A CLEAN SLATE. REGARDLESS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.

WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH.

THEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENERGIZE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA.

TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IF NOT RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN. WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE WITH MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE 70J.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP INTO
THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO TUCKED
INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING IT FOR
NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TEMPS FOR
A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT THE HIGH END
FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE,
WITH THE POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO
THE ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BROUGHT MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS. PCPN IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE AT KRDG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE HEADLINE THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE CONDITIONS BECOMING
LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY...GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 292100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. AT 500MB
KILZ WINDS LOOKED OFF BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 850MB TEMPS IF
ANYTHING WERE INITIALIZED 1C TOO WARM AROUND OUR REGION, IT GETS
COLDER AT 925MB WITH A 1 TO 2C WARM BIAS. ACAR SOUNDINGS AT PHL ARE
ALL STILL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB.

THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR QPF FORECAST. GIVEN IT AND
THE CAN GGEM ARE IN THE COMPROMISE POSN BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH IS
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT LEAVE THE I95
CORRIDOR SEWD HIGH AND DRY, WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE FORMER.

A SUB ADVISORY ONE-TWO PCPN PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  ONE TO THREE INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WAS KEPT FROM A READING PA - TRENTON NJ - NEW
BRUNSWICK NJ LINE NORTHWESTWARD. I95 CORRIDOR WAS KEPT UNDER AN INCH
AND JUST A COATING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FIRST PCPN SHOT IS TIED TO A SHORT WAVE AND HAS THE BEST WAA
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PREDICTED. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK 1 TO 3 HR SHOT. IN SPITE OF PCPN FIELD DIFFERENCES, THE
EVENING DEEP OMEGA BETWEEN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SIDING WITH THE DRIER WRF-NMMB COLLAPSING THE
PCPN BEFORE IT GETS TO PHL. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION WAS SOUTH OF
THEIR 6HR PREDICTIONS. WE WERE MORE BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG THE MD
EASTERN SHORE AS WELL INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PTYPE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE SO DRY BELOW 700MB THAT
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY WILL TAKE PTYPE TO SNOW POSSIBLY IN
ALL PLACES. ARE SEEING SOME SLEET (SNOW PELLETS?) IN OBSERVATIONS TO
OUR WEST. NON-FREEZING RAIN PTYPE SEEMS MOST CONFIDENT AROUND AND TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BECAUSE OF THE EVAP COOLING POWER
OF THIS DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. IN THE REST OF OUR
CWA, GIVEN THAT INITIALIZED 925MBS WERE TOO WARM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT EDGE ABOVE 3C SHOULD EVAP COOL BELOW AS SNOW STARTS FALLING.
THIS GIVES SOUNDINGS THERE MORE THE ICE PELLET LOOK TO IT AND IF
INTENSITIES ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WAY SOUTH. WHILE
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST IS NOT ZERO, IT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE ON OUR SIDE,
SURFACE ROAD TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED TO AROUND 40 TODAY IN DE AND AIR
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW IF TO FREEZING THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY HERE. LASTLY MOST ROADWAYS ARE HEAVILY
SALTED AND ARE NOT STARTING FROM A CLEAN SLATE. REGARDLESS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.

WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH.

THEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENERGIZE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA.

TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IF NOT RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN. WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE WITH MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE 70J.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP INTO
THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO TUCKED
INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING IT FOR
NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TEMPS FOR
A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT THE HIGH END
FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE,
WITH THE POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO
THE ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BROUGHT MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS. PCPN IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE AT KRDG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE HEADLINE THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE CONDITIONS BECOMING
LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY...GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 292100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. AT 500MB
KILZ WINDS LOOKED OFF BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 850MB TEMPS IF
ANYTHING WERE INITIALIZED 1C TOO WARM AROUND OUR REGION, IT GETS
COLDER AT 925MB WITH A 1 TO 2C WARM BIAS. ACAR SOUNDINGS AT PHL ARE
ALL STILL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB.

THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR QPF FORECAST. GIVEN IT AND
THE CAN GGEM ARE IN THE COMPROMISE POSN BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH IS
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT LEAVE THE I95
CORRIDOR SEWD HIGH AND DRY, WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE FORMER.

A SUB ADVISORY ONE-TWO PCPN PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  ONE TO THREE INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WAS KEPT FROM A READING PA - TRENTON NJ - NEW
BRUNSWICK NJ LINE NORTHWESTWARD. I95 CORRIDOR WAS KEPT UNDER AN INCH
AND JUST A COATING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FIRST PCPN SHOT IS TIED TO A SHORT WAVE AND HAS THE BEST WAA
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PREDICTED. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK 1 TO 3 HR SHOT. IN SPITE OF PCPN FIELD DIFFERENCES, THE
EVENING DEEP OMEGA BETWEEN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SIDING WITH THE DRIER WRF-NMMB COLLAPSING THE
PCPN BEFORE IT GETS TO PHL. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION WAS SOUTH OF
THEIR 6HR PREDICTIONS. WE WERE MORE BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG THE MD
EASTERN SHORE AS WELL INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PTYPE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE SO DRY BELOW 700MB THAT
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY WILL TAKE PTYPE TO SNOW POSSIBLY IN
ALL PLACES. ARE SEEING SOME SLEET (SNOW PELLETS?) IN OBSERVATIONS TO
OUR WEST. NON-FREEZING RAIN PTYPE SEEMS MOST CONFIDENT AROUND AND TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BECAUSE OF THE EVAP COOLING POWER
OF THIS DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. IN THE REST OF OUR
CWA, GIVEN THAT INITIALIZED 925MBS WERE TOO WARM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT EDGE ABOVE 3C SHOULD EVAP COOL BELOW AS SNOW STARTS FALLING.
THIS GIVES SOUNDINGS THERE MORE THE ICE PELLET LOOK TO IT AND IF
INTENSITIES ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WAY SOUTH. WHILE
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST IS NOT ZERO, IT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE ON OUR SIDE,
SURFACE ROAD TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED TO AROUND 40 TODAY IN DE AND AIR
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW IF TO FREEZING THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY HERE. LASTLY MOST ROADWAYS ARE HEAVILY
SALTED AND ARE NOT STARTING FROM A CLEAN SLATE. REGARDLESS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.

WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH.

THEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENERGIZE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA.

TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IF NOT RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN. WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE WITH MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE 70J.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP INTO
THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO TUCKED
INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING IT FOR
NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TEMPS FOR
A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT THE HIGH END
FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE,
WITH THE POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO
THE ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BROUGHT MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS. PCPN IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE AT KRDG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE HEADLINE THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE CONDITIONS BECOMING
LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY...GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 292100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. AT 500MB
KILZ WINDS LOOKED OFF BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 850MB TEMPS IF
ANYTHING WERE INITIALIZED 1C TOO WARM AROUND OUR REGION, IT GETS
COLDER AT 925MB WITH A 1 TO 2C WARM BIAS. ACAR SOUNDINGS AT PHL ARE
ALL STILL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB.

THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR QPF FORECAST. GIVEN IT AND
THE CAN GGEM ARE IN THE COMPROMISE POSN BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH IS
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT LEAVE THE I95
CORRIDOR SEWD HIGH AND DRY, WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE FORMER.

A SUB ADVISORY ONE-TWO PCPN PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  ONE TO THREE INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WAS KEPT FROM A READING PA - TRENTON NJ - NEW
BRUNSWICK NJ LINE NORTHWESTWARD. I95 CORRIDOR WAS KEPT UNDER AN INCH
AND JUST A COATING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FIRST PCPN SHOT IS TIED TO A SHORT WAVE AND HAS THE BEST WAA
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PREDICTED. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK 1 TO 3 HR SHOT. IN SPITE OF PCPN FIELD DIFFERENCES, THE
EVENING DEEP OMEGA BETWEEN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SIDING WITH THE DRIER WRF-NMMB COLLAPSING THE
PCPN BEFORE IT GETS TO PHL. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION WAS SOUTH OF
THEIR 6HR PREDICTIONS. WE WERE MORE BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG THE MD
EASTERN SHORE AS WELL INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PTYPE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE SO DRY BELOW 700MB THAT
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY WILL TAKE PTYPE TO SNOW POSSIBLY IN
ALL PLACES. ARE SEEING SOME SLEET (SNOW PELLETS?) IN OBSERVATIONS TO
OUR WEST. NON-FREEZING RAIN PTYPE SEEMS MOST CONFIDENT AROUND AND TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BECAUSE OF THE EVAP COOLING POWER
OF THIS DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. IN THE REST OF OUR
CWA, GIVEN THAT INITIALIZED 925MBS WERE TOO WARM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT EDGE ABOVE 3C SHOULD EVAP COOL BELOW AS SNOW STARTS FALLING.
THIS GIVES SOUNDINGS THERE MORE THE ICE PELLET LOOK TO IT AND IF
INTENSITIES ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WAY SOUTH. WHILE
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST IS NOT ZERO, IT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE ON OUR SIDE,
SURFACE ROAD TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED TO AROUND 40 TODAY IN DE AND AIR
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW IF TO FREEZING THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY HERE. LASTLY MOST ROADWAYS ARE HEAVILY
SALTED AND ARE NOT STARTING FROM A CLEAN SLATE. REGARDLESS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.

WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH.

THEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENERGIZE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA.

TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IF NOT RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN. WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE WITH MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE 70J.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP INTO
THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO TUCKED
INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING IT FOR
NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TEMPS FOR
A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT THE HIGH END
FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE,
WITH THE POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO
THE ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BROUGHT MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS. PCPN IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE AT KRDG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE HEADLINE THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE CONDITIONS BECOMING
LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY...GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






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