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000
FXUS61 KPHI 021954
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER VIRGINIA
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY COMBINING
WITH ANOTHER LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMPLEX LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA ARE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND A WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH DELMARVA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE IS A 20 DEG F TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST BETWEEN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE. WHERE THE
SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOURS LEFT FOR
ADDITIONAL HEATING.

PRECIP MOVED OUT MID MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE ASSOCD WITH THE RRQ OF A 140 KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WHICH IS FCST TO CONTINUE NWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW PRECIP SPREADING BACK IN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA FROM THE SW MAINLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVER
NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
MIX...ESPECIALLY S OF PHL... AND AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IF T-STORMS DECIDE TO
CONCENTRATE IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE
SOME OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN DELMARVA NEAR
50 IN FAR NRN NJ AND ADJACENT PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE
MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND UVV MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FCST TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WITH NELY WINDS TO
ITS NORTH OVER THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL BE DRYING OUT SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FEATURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO EVENTUALLY
REACH NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND MEANDERING OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION BEGIN
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION, PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHO MOST OF OUR TAF SITE STILL HAVE IFR CIGS AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES.
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE SW
LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS AND POOR VSBY AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER PRECIP. GENERALLY IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF
THE NIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL END...ONLY VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TUE MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SO
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SELY WIND THIS EVENING WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NE OVER NIGHT AND TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF
THE DELMARVA SHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 TO 4 FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021413
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE UP ACROSS THE
DELMARVA ON TUESDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF MID-MORNING...CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LIGHT FOG CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT THE
COOL SFC LAYER WITH ONSHORE WINDS IS ONLY 1K TO 2K FT THICK...
MOST SHALLOW SOUTH...SO WON`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE IT ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST OVER DELMARVA. WE WILL LIKELY END UP WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF PHL. NOT SURE WHERE THIS WILL BE SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY AJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AT THIS TIME.

THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF T-STORMS EXITING NEWD
INTO NY/NE AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE DELAWARE VLY
ALSO MOVING QUICKLY EAST. FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON OUR FCST AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...HWVR CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR IF AT ALL. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLEARING WITH
ASSOCIATED HEATING AND DE-STABILIZATION...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER PART OF DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS A BIT MORE CONSOLIDATED SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP SERVE BETTER FOCUS FOR LIFT AND THEREFORE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A RIBBON OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY BE CLOSE
TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE EVENING MAY START CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST TRACKS OUR WAY.
THIS MAY BE ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ALSO NEAR A POTENTIAL
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WARM FRONT.
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY,
HOWEVER EARLY ON THERE COULD BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS BEFORE
CONSOLIDATION OCCURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION, THE
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE QPF FORECAST AND THE INCOMING
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT, THE POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. A MILDER
NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES
GIVEN AN INCOMING WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL DRIVE DEW POINTS UP AS
WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED, ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY DESPITE THE INCREASING DEW POINTS
FOR AWHILE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NC/VA AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE DE
COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE RAINY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. POPS FOR TUE WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL
RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE CHC POPS ACROSS THE N/W AREAS..FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SYSTEM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE BRIEFLY LOWER POPS WILL NOT
REMAIN LOW LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

A BIG PATTERN CHANGE ALREADY TAKING PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK BEGINS TO
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER WEDNESDAY AS H5 UPPER HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WITH THESE HEIGHT
FALLS AND CIRCULATES ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT
HIGHER POPS WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN LATER TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AT
LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF KPHL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR
NORTH A WARM FRONT GETS. THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. SOME
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, THEN SHOWERS
AGAIN TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
PHILADELPHIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT CAN OCCUR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS,
BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO LOCALLY SOUTH, THEN TURNING EASTERLY AGAIN
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS. IF A
WARM FRONT IS FARTHER NORTH TO START THIS EVENING, CEILINGS COULD BE
AT LEAST A LITTLE HIGHER. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH OF KPHL. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 4-8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE DEL
VALLEY...DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. OCNL RAIN AND FOG POSSIBLE.
WED THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MID-MORNING UPDATE...THE SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS AT
BUOYS 44009 AND 44065 ARE WELL BELOW 5 FT AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO
INCREASE TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY ANDTONIGHT, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FOR A TIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT. THE FLOW
OVERALL REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. IT CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
MARGINAL REGARDING SEAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS, HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW.
IT GOES UNTIL 4 PM TODAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS.

SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THESE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS, AND IF THESE DO OCCUR
THEN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021413
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE UP ACROSS THE
DELMARVA ON TUESDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF MID-MORNING...CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LIGHT FOG CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT THE
COOL SFC LAYER WITH ONSHORE WINDS IS ONLY 1K TO 2K FT THICK...
MOST SHALLOW SOUTH...SO WON`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE IT ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST OVER DELMARVA. WE WILL LIKELY END UP WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF PHL. NOT SURE WHERE THIS WILL BE SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY AJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AT THIS TIME.

THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF T-STORMS EXITING NEWD
INTO NY/NE AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE DELAWARE VLY
ALSO MOVING QUICKLY EAST. FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON OUR FCST AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...HWVR CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR IF AT ALL. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLEARING WITH
ASSOCIATED HEATING AND DE-STABILIZATION...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER PART OF DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS A BIT MORE CONSOLIDATED SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP SERVE BETTER FOCUS FOR LIFT AND THEREFORE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A RIBBON OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY BE CLOSE
TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE EVENING MAY START CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST TRACKS OUR WAY.
THIS MAY BE ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ALSO NEAR A POTENTIAL
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WARM FRONT.
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY,
HOWEVER EARLY ON THERE COULD BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS BEFORE
CONSOLIDATION OCCURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION, THE
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE QPF FORECAST AND THE INCOMING
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT, THE POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. A MILDER
NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES
GIVEN AN INCOMING WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL DRIVE DEW POINTS UP AS
WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED, ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY DESPITE THE INCREASING DEW POINTS
FOR AWHILE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NC/VA AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE DE
COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE RAINY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. POPS FOR TUE WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL
RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE CHC POPS ACROSS THE N/W AREAS..FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SYSTEM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE BRIEFLY LOWER POPS WILL NOT
REMAIN LOW LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

A BIG PATTERN CHANGE ALREADY TAKING PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK BEGINS TO
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER WEDNESDAY AS H5 UPPER HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WITH THESE HEIGHT
FALLS AND CIRCULATES ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT
HIGHER POPS WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN LATER TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AT
LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF KPHL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR
NORTH A WARM FRONT GETS. THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. SOME
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, THEN SHOWERS
AGAIN TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
PHILADELPHIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT CAN OCCUR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS,
BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO LOCALLY SOUTH, THEN TURNING EASTERLY AGAIN
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS. IF A
WARM FRONT IS FARTHER NORTH TO START THIS EVENING, CEILINGS COULD BE
AT LEAST A LITTLE HIGHER. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH OF KPHL. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 4-8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE DEL
VALLEY...DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. OCNL RAIN AND FOG POSSIBLE.
WED THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MID-MORNING UPDATE...THE SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS AT
BUOYS 44009 AND 44065 ARE WELL BELOW 5 FT AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO
INCREASE TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY ANDTONIGHT, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FOR A TIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT. THE FLOW
OVERALL REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. IT CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
MARGINAL REGARDING SEAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS, HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW.
IT GOES UNTIL 4 PM TODAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS.

SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THESE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS, AND IF THESE DO OCCUR
THEN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE UP ACROSS THE
DELMARVA ON TUESDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KEEPING A RATHER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE. IT
APPEARS THAT ANY DENSE FOG IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
GIVEN HOW LOW THE CEILINGS ARE EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SUBTLE SHORT
WAVES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS, WITH ONE OF THESE MORE NOTABLE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA
BEFORE A LULL TAKES PLACE. THE FORECAST THEREAFTER IS RATHER
COMPLICATED WITH LESS CERTAINTY GIVEN IT HINGES ON WHERE THE WARM
FRONT MOVES TO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING MUCH WARMER
AIR TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST OUR DELMARVA ZONES, HOWEVER THE EXTENT OF
EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ALL THAT CLEAR.

AN EXAMINATION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT MAY GET
INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA, WITH THE MAIN WARM SECTOR HANGING
BACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT STRONG AS AN INCOMING SURFACE LOW IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT RUSHING IN THE CLEARING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, AT WHICH THE BULK OF IT IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE TO PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AGAIN,
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE INCOMING WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE CHCS AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
WEAK SURFACE LOW. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE WITH THESE
FEATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.

WE CONTINUED TO CONFINE THE THUNDER CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, HOWEVER DID NOT ADD IN ENHANCED WORDING YET
GIVEN LESS CONFIDENCE WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY. IF HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET MICROBURSTS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BACKED SOME NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF
CONVECTIVE CELLS INTERACT WITH IT. OVERALL, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL HOWEVER THE AMOUNT
OF DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY. THIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG GRADIENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. THE HOURLY GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS A BIT MORE CONSOLIDATED SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP SERVE BETTER FOCUS FOR LIFT AND THEREFORE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A RIBBON OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY BE CLOSE
TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE EVENING MAY START CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST TRACKS OUR WAY.
THIS MAY BE ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ALSO NEAR A POTENTIAL
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WARM FRONT.
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY,
HOWEVER EARLY ON THERE COULD BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS BEFORE
CONSOLIDATION OCCURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION, THE
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE QPF FORECAST AND THE INCOMING
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT, THE POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. A MILDER
NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES
GIVEN AN INCOMING WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL DRIVE DEW POINTS UP AS
WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED, ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY DESPITE THE INCREASING DEW POINTS
FOR AWHILE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NC/VA AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE DE
COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE RAINY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. POPS FOR TUE WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL
RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE CHC POPS ACROSS THE N/W AREAS..FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SYSTEM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE BRIEFLY LOWER POPS WILL NOT
REMAIN LOW LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

A BIG PATTERN CHANGE ALREADY TAKING PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK BEGINS TO
AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATER WEDNESDAY AS H5 UPPER HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WITH THESE HEIGHT
FALLS AND CIRCULATES ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT
HIGHER POPS WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN LATER TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AT
LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF KPHL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR
NORTH A WARM FRONT GETS. THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR THIS MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. SOME
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, THEN SHOWERS
AGAIN TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
PHILADELPHIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT CAN OCCUR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS,
BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO LOCALLY SOUTH, THEN TURNING EASTERLY AGAIN
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS. IF A
WARM FRONT IS FARTHER NORTH TO START THIS EVENING, CEILINGS COULD BE
AT LEAST A LITTLE HIGHER. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH OF KPHL. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 4-8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE DEL
VALLEY...DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. OCNL RAIN AND FOG POSSIBLE.
WED THRU FRI...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FOR A TIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT. THE FLOW
OVERALL REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. IT CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
MARGINAL REGARDING SEAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS, HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. IT
GOES UNTIL 4 PM TODAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
25 KNOTS.

SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THESE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS, AND IF THESE DO OCCUR
THEN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020136
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT,
THEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO OUR AREA MONDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM WEST LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FROM THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFF OUR COAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT TO OUR
NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THE SURFACE WIND IS ANTICIPATED REMAIN OUT
OF THE EAST TO THE NORTHEAST ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ON MOST OF
OUR MARINE AREA. THE WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FARTHER
INLAND, BUT ANY DIRECTION WILL LIKELY BE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

THE ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HOLD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK VORTICITY IMPULSES
TRAVELING IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ACT TO TOUCH
OFF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO OUR WEST, BUT AS THESE RIDE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST, THEY SHOULD LOSE STEAM, SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND IN THE
50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN OVERCAST WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, THE IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT
REACH PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND OUR ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY DAY`S END.

DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
WIDE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND PERHAPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
JERSEY SHORE. MEANWHILE, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 80 IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AROUND
4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH AS THE MARINE LAYER ERODES.

MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EVENING UPDATE TO
INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PA, SOUTHERN
NJ AND ESPECIALLY OUR DELMARVA ZONES. THE LATEST 12Z/18Z GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH INTO OUR AREA
THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES BUT SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD THE WARM
FRONT BEING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PHILA METRO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED/DEEP
LIFT INITIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LIFT SUBSEQUENTLY
INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEEPENING OVER THE
DC AREA, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY, FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
LATER MONDAY NIGHT IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK TO OUR NORTHWEST AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THERE IS ALSO GROWING CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONVECTIVE INDICES FROM THE
18Z NAM WAS PARTICULARLY OMINOUS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
45-55 KT OF DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM
ABOUT ILG TO ACY SOUTHWARD AT 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE. LAST NIGHT`S 00Z
RUN OF THE HI-RES NCAR ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE A SIMILAR FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH MEAN FORECAST
INDICES ARE NOT QUITE AS EXTREME AS THE 18Z NAM (NOT SURPRISING
SINCE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLENDS OUT THE EXTREMES). NONETHELESS, THE
FORECAST ENVIRONMENT INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/WET
MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL ADD THE
SEVERE RISK IN THE HWO. FURTHER COORDINATE WITH SPC MAY BE NEEDED.

WE ALSO MAY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY NIGHT
SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT. MORE
DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN UPCOMING FORECAST DISCUSSIONS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN DETAILS LATER
THIS WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

NEXT SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST DAY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

PRIMARILY USED 12Z SUPERBLEND IN THIS TIME PERIOD.  BUT 12Z
SUPERBLEND STRUGGLED WITH THE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
00Z NATIONAL BLEND PROVIDED BETTER CONTINUITY FOR WINDS WITH OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES SO THAT WAS USED.
ALSO USED WPC GUIDANCE IN LIEU OF SUPERBLEND FOR DAY 7 TO REFLECT
LATEST FORECAST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT OUR TAF SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ALSO,
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND
4 TO 8 KNOTS.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF THE
IMPROVEMENT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE
KEPT THE TAFS PESSIMISTIC BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KACY, KMIV
AND KILG.

ALSO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE
SHOWERS IN THE TAFS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEED TO BE INCLUDED
IN THE FUTURE.


OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES.

WED...MOSTLY VFR.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF OUR COAST. WE ANTICIPATE THAT
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. WE WILL
ADJUST THE TIME OF THE ADVISORY, STARTING IT AT 800 PM THIS EVENING
AND ENDING IT AT 400 PM MONDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS WITH THE DIRECTION
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT
SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST. AS A RESULT, THE
SURFACE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST TO
THE NORTHEAST ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ON MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA.
THE WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FARTHER INLAND.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSES TRAVELING IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW MAY ACT TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALSO, THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND IN THE
50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN OVERCAST WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THE IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT REACH PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND OUR
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY DAY`S END.

DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
WIDE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND PERHAPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
JERSEY SHORE. MEANWHILE, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 80 IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.

THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AROUND 4
TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH AS THE MARINE LAYER ERODES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN DETAILS LATER
THIS WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

NEXT SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST DAY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

PRIMARILY USED 12Z SUPERBLEND IN THIS TIME PERIOD.  BUT 12Z
SUPERBLEND STRUGGLED WITH THE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
00Z NATIONAL BLEND PROVIDED BETTER CONTINUITY FOR WINDS WITH OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES SO THAT WAS USED.
ALSO USED WPC GUIDANCE IN LIEU OF SUPERBLEND FOR DAY 7 TO REFLECT
LATEST FORECAST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT OUR TAF SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ALSO,
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND
4 TO 8 KNOTS.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF THE
IMPROVEMENT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE
KEPT THE TAFS PESSIMISTIC BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KACY, KMIV
AND KILG.


OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES.

WED...MOSTLY VFR.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF OUR COAST. WE ANTICIPATE THAT
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. WE WILL
ADJUST THE TIME OF THE ADVISORY, STARTING IT AT 800 PM THIS EVENING
AND ENDING IT AT 400 PM MONDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS WITH THE DIRECTION
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT
SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011554
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1154 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS ESTABLISHED IN OUR REGION.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS WAS
OVERRUNNING THE MARINE LAYER IN OUR REGION AND FEEDING INTO THE
AREA OF STEADY RAIN. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT. THE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, SO A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR
REGION. READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY ERODE ENOUGH IN OUR FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
ALLOW THE WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THERE WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RISING AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND THEN START TO LIGHTEN UP AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES IT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS MAY INDICATE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY FALL OFF TO MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME
HIGHS AS WE KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY 12 HOUR PERIODS
WHEN THERE WILL NOT BE ANY QPF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY
OF SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON
THE TIMES OF MORE CERTAINTY. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THIS WEEK. A UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AROUND
THURSDAY AND THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ARE TUESDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HI CHC RANGE POPS MON AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN
MOST AREAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MONDAY
WHEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY...THE ONE DAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.

THU THRU SAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
CUTS OFF OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY. SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND MEANDERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. RATHER LOW CONFID FCST WITH THE DIFFERENT
OPERATIONAL MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE
PLACEMENT OF LOWS AND HIGHER QPF AMTS. MOSTLY CHC POPS IN THE FCST
FOR THESE PERIODS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE IFR CATEGORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY VALUES ANTICIPATED TO VARY BETWEEN
CATEGORIES BASED ON RAINFALL RATES. THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO LET UP THIS EVENING, AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CONDITIONS WILL STAY IFR AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT.

WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO EAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

WED NIGHT THRU THU...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET PERIOD ON THE AREA WATERS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXCEED 5 FEET BETWEEN 03-06Z. WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...THE LAST OF THE SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS
THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NJ
WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA/IOVINO
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011554
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1154 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS ESTABLISHED IN OUR REGION.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS WAS
OVERRUNNING THE MARINE LAYER IN OUR REGION AND FEEDING INTO THE
AREA OF STEADY RAIN. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT. THE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, SO A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR
REGION. READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY ERODE ENOUGH IN OUR FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
ALLOW THE WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THERE WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RISING AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND THEN START TO LIGHTEN UP AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES IT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS MAY INDICATE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY FALL OFF TO MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME
HIGHS AS WE KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY 12 HOUR PERIODS
WHEN THERE WILL NOT BE ANY QPF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY
OF SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON
THE TIMES OF MORE CERTAINTY. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THIS WEEK. A UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AROUND
THURSDAY AND THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ARE TUESDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HI CHC RANGE POPS MON AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN
MOST AREAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MONDAY
WHEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY...THE ONE DAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.

THU THRU SAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
CUTS OFF OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY. SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND MEANDERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. RATHER LOW CONFID FCST WITH THE DIFFERENT
OPERATIONAL MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE
PLACEMENT OF LOWS AND HIGHER QPF AMTS. MOSTLY CHC POPS IN THE FCST
FOR THESE PERIODS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE IFR CATEGORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY VALUES ANTICIPATED TO VARY BETWEEN
CATEGORIES BASED ON RAINFALL RATES. THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO LET UP THIS EVENING, AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CONDITIONS WILL STAY IFR AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT.

WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO EAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

WED NIGHT THRU THU...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET PERIOD ON THE AREA WATERS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXCEED 5 FEET BETWEEN 03-06Z. WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...THE LAST OF THE SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS
THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NJ
WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA/IOVINO
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED IN OUR REGION. THE RESULTING OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WHEN THE RAIN MAY BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR
REGION. READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY ERODE ENOUGH IN OUR FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
ALLOW THE WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THERE WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND THEN START TO LIGHTEN UP AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES IT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS MAY INDICATE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY FALL OFF TO MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME
HIGHS AS WE KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY 12 HOUR PERIODS
WHEN THERE WILL NOT BE ANY QPF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY
OF SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON
THE TIMES OF MORE CERTAINTY. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THIS WEEK. A UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AROUND
THURSDAY AND THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ARE TUESDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HI CHC RANGE POPS MON AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN
MOST AREAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MONDAY
WHEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY...THE ONE DAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.

THU THRU SAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
CUTS OFF OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY. SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND MEANDERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. RATHER LOW CONFID FCST WITH THE DIFFERENT
OPERATIONAL MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE
PLACEMENT OF LOWS AND HIGHER QPF AMTS. MOSTLY CHC POPS IN THE FCST
FOR THESE PERIODS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TODAY IN
RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE RAIN LETS UP THIS EVENING, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
REMAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS PREVALENT.

WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE
TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

WED NIGHT THRU THU...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET PERIOD ON THE AREA WATERS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXCEED 5 FEET BETWEEN 03-06Z. WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...THE LAST OF THE SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS
THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NJ
WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WHILE IT MAY NOT
RAIN CONTINUOUSLY ALL DAY LONG, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN, WHICH
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS SPC HAS EXPANDED THE GENERAL THUNDER RISK. WITH SUCH LIMITED
PARAMETERS THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OT ROW BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE
WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION, WE MAY HAVE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE, LOCALES THAT
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER 50S, WITH THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE, HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY, AND THEN START TO
LIGHTEN UP AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES IT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS MAY
INDICATE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY FALL OFF TO MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS
AS WE KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE REST OF THE
AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY 12 HOUR PERIODS WHEN
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY QPF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF
SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON THE
TIMES OF MORE CERTAINTY. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THIS WEEK. A UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AROUND
THURSDAY AND THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO DEEPEN AND CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ARE TUESDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH HI CHC RANGE POPS MON AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN MOST
AREAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MONDAY WHEN
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY...THE ONE DAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.

THU THRU SAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
CUTS OFF OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY. SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND MEANDERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. RATHER LOW CONFID FCST WITH THE DIFFERENT OPERATIONAL
MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF
LOWS AND HIGHER QPF AMTS. MOSTLY CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR THESE
PERIODS ATTM.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION. PERIODS OF MVFR WILL DROP TO IFR AT OR NEAR 12Z
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TANKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BUT
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW FAST THAT OCCURS. HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT TAFS AS THEY REFLECT THE BEST TIMING
FOR THE LOWER CONDITIONS.

AS THE RAIN LETS UP SUNDAY EVENING, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
REMAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
PREVALENT.

WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE TO
THE EAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
    AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
WED NIGHT THRU THU...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
    POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET PERIOD ON THE AREA WATERS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD AGAIN
TONIGHT AND EXCEED 5 FEET BETWEEN 03-06Z. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...THE LAST OF THE SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN
    WATERS BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS
  THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
  NRN NJ WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010439
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1239 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS LOW WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS EVENING. WE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
FILL BACK IN WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS SOME DRIER AIR ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA, BUT
AGAIN, THESE SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH MORE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL LIFT ALONG AND OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN RAIN DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE DELMARVA BY SUNRISE. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER
1/10TH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 40`S WITH MOST OF
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM MET/MAV/LAV GUIDANCES IN THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE UNDER
10 MPH FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ADVECT IN JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. A GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE FRONT IN THE REGION.
MANY LOCALES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN THE 40`S TO LOW 50`S. ON
THE OTHER HAND, SOUTH OF THE FRONT HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60`S.
CONTINUED WINDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH. THE SREF
PLUMES ARE FOR THE MOST PART TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND 1/2 INCH TO
3/4 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINFALL, COMPONENTS OF WPC QPF ALONG
WITH THE WRF- ARW AND NMM WERE ADDED FOR THE QPF FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.  ONE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE START
OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  BETWEEN THIS TWO STORM EVENTS, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER CLOSE TO THE AREA, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

12Z SUPERBLEND WAS USED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EVENING WILL START OUT WITH VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER AS WELL, REACHING IFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRESENT IN HOW QUICK THE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER. A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR A WINDOW OF
IFR CEILINGS CENTERED AROUND THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED -DZ WITH IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FOR SUNDAY EVENING AT PHL AS WE LOSE DEEP
MOISTURE, BUT KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WOULD BE MORE
INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WITH FREQUENT RAINS
AND AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WED...VFR MOSTLY. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE.

THU...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR AS RAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FEET ACROSS THE AREAS WATERS AND WE HAVE
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
OCEAN WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010137
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS LOW WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS EVENING. WE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
FILL BACK IN WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS SOME DRIER AIR ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA, BUT
AGAIN, THESE SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH MORE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL LIFT ALONG AND OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN RAIN DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE DELMARVA BY SUNRISE. ANY QPF LOOKS TO BE UNDER
1/10TH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 40`S WITH MOST OF
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM MET/MAV/LAV GUIDANCES IN THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE UNDER
10 MPH FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ADVECT IN JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. A GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE FRONT IN THE REGION.
MANY LOCALES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN THE 40`S TO LOW 50`S. ON
THE OTHER HAND, SOUTH OF THE FRONT HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60`S.
CONTINUED WINDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH. THE SREF
PLUMES ARE FOR THE MOST PART TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND 1/2 INCH TO
3/4 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINFALL, COMPONENTS OF WPC QPF ALONG
WITH THE WRF- ARW AND NMM WERE ADDED FOR THE QPF FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.  ONE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE START
OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  BETWEEN THIS TWO STORM EVENTS, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER CLOSE TO THE AREA, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

12Z SUPERBLEND WAS USED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EVENING WILL START OUT WITH VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER AS WELL, REACHING IFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRESENT IN HOW QUICK THE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER. A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR A WINDOW OF
IFR CEILINGS CENTERED AROUND THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. WE`VE INTRODUCED -DZ WITH IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FOR SUNDAY EVENING AT PHL AS WE LOSE DEEP
MOISTURE, BUT KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WOULD BE MORE
INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WITH FREQUENT RAINS
AND AREAS OF FOG.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WED...VFR MOSTLY. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE.

THU...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR AS RAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE SWELL, SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY 44009 REMAINS AROUND 5 FEET, WHILE THE OTHER
BUOYS HAVE FALLEN BELOW. WE WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
ELEVATED SEAS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
OCEAN WATERS DUE TO SEAS.

TUE THRU THU...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON/SZATKOWSKI




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