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000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
THIS DAY AS PER RADAR AND OBS.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT AS PER A BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC. HRRR AND HRRX LOOK
ACCEPTABLE AS A TIMING GUIDE. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER
ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 4P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 4P
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH INTO
CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 121750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND
AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE
BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 121750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND
AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE
BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 121750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND
AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE
BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 121427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND
AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE
BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIRRUS CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN
THE DAY. WIND BECOMES SW WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KT BY MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON.


TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 5000 FT BUT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NEAR MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY 15 TO 20 KT
BEFORE SHIFTING NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT BY 10Z SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT, EXPECT THE HIGHEST RISK OF SNOW SHOWERS TO INCLUDE
KABE, KRDG, KTTN, KPNE, AND KPHL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.


SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TEMPORARILY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST NEAR 40 KNOTS AT MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY 16Z ONWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 928
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 928
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 928
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 928
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 928
CLIMATE...928




000
FXUS61 KPHI 120857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.
BITTER COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
OFFSHORE MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST AND AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA, THROUGH THE
DAY. IN RESPONSE, SHOULD SEE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THOUGH THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER, WITH SURFACE
WINDS STILL NORTHWESTERLY, ALBEIT CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE INTO HIGHER MAX TEMPS
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IF ANYTHING, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

SNOW...LAPSE RATES AREN`T QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WHAT
THIS PATTERN LACKS IN LAPSE RATES, IT LOOKS TO MAKE UP FOR IN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUS,
THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
HIGHER CHANCES TOWARDS THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN
ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
(EXCEPT IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ, WHERE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN). HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT, SO AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYONE WILL REACH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE POCONOS, WHICH COULD COME CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, TO KEEP
THINGS SIMPLE, WE WILL JUST MENTION THE POTENTIAL WITH THE WIND
CHILL WARNING WHICH WILL BE STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE THE LOW OFF THE COAST STRENGTHENS. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THERE WILL BE FAIRLY
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH ENHANCE LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SPEAKING THE NORTHWEST
FLOW, WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY GUST 35-40 MPH, WITH SOME AREA
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS; WE`VE HELD OF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND WILL
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE BITTER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL WARNING
ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH MOST
AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 21Z, CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS,
EXPECT MVFR, AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT THE HIGHEST RISK OF SNOW SHOWERS TO INCLUDE KABE, KRDG, KTTN,
KPNE, AND KPHL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES AS WELL.

SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, MVFR
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TEMPORARILY. NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING SATURDAY TO 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING SOME OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 120523
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND NOW EXPECT A MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP.
SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M
TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL USHER
IN THE COLD WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS IN
MOST AREAS AND REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND LOW 20S SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS NORTH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE -25 TO -30 DEGREES. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA / NRN NJ
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  MON AND THEN TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME AS A WET
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WARM-UP SO THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY COULD BE SNOW OR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. WE WILL JUST HAVE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW WITH LIMITED
CONFID IN PLACEMENT OF ANY FROZEN PCPN.

THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION NEXT WED AND MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES. GUID SUGGESTS THERE CUD
BE A SNOW SHOWER FRI AFTN W THAT CUD LWR VSBYS/CIGS AT KRDG AND
KABE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WIND WILL BECOME MORE SWLY, AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT ONCE IT DECREASES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND THICKEN ON FRI


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN LOWERED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ONCE WINDS DIMINISH, EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO STAY BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A GOOD DAY TO FINISH
UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR AWHILE SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. MORE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 120238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND NOW EXPECT A MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP.
SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M
TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL USHER
IN THE COLD WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS IN
MOST AREAS AND REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND LOW 20S SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS NORTH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE -25 TO -30 DEGREES. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA / NRN NJ
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  MON AND THEN TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME AS A WET
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WARM-UP SO THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY COULD BE SNOW OR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. WE WILL JUST HAVE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW WITH LIMITED
CONFID IN PLACEMENT OF ANY FROZEN PCPN.

THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION NEXT WED AND MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES. GUID SUGGESTS THERE CUD
BE A SNOW SHOWER FRI AFTN W THAT CUD LWR VSBYS/CIGS AT KRDG AND
KABE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WIND WILL BECOME MORE SWLY, AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT ONCE IT DECREASES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND THICKEN ON FRI


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LOWERED GLW ON DEL BAY AND REPLACED WITH SCA. SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME FURTHER, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THINGS COME
DOWN.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR AWHILE SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. MORE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...CONTINUING SNOW SHOWER FORECAST, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH BRIEF SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. I THINK MOSTLY HIGHER
TERRAIN UNLESS WE CAN SEE SOME BANDS ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT GIVING UP, THOUGH DRIER DEWPOINTS AND 20+ TT/TD SPREADS ARGUE
AGAINST ACCUMS ANYWHERE SE OF A KABE-KMMU LINE. HOWEVER, HAVE SEEN
BANDS ORGANIZE BEFORE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RH CAN PERMIT
PROBLEM SNOW SQUALLS. WILL CHECK AT 320 PM FOR A FINAL DECISION ON
HOW TO HOPEFULLY BEST FORECAST THE PERIOD 330 PM TO 8 PM.

THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE SNOW SHOWERS...EXTREME AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL UP THROUGH MID
LVLS--- ROUGHLY 500MB. BOTH THE BGM WINDEX TOOL AND THE BTV
SNOWSQUALL PARM TOOLS INDICATED HUGE VALUES BOTH THIS MORNING,
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY WITH REAL DEAL TRUE
ARCTIC PLUNGE.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS DRY OUT OR TRAIL ESEWD OUT TO SEA THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC HEATING WANES AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WARMS A
BIT. SKIES CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN WITH SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON TODAYS FRESHENED SNOW COVER. RAN A 50 50 BLEND OF 12Z/11
GFS/NAM MOS BUT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR COOLER THAN THIS FCST BY
2-3 DEGREES OVER E PA AND NW NJ RADIATORS. SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO
IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL USHER
IN THE COLD WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS IN
MOST AREAS AND REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND LOW 20S SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS NORTH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE -25 TO -30 DEGREES. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA / NRN NJ
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  MON AND THEN TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME AS A WET
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WARM-UP SO THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY COULD BE SNOW OR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. WE WILL JUST HAVE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW WITH LIMITED
CONFID IN PLACEMENT OF ANY FROZEN PCPN.

THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION NEXT WED AND MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KABE/KRDG AND KTTN DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY SLIP SOUTH TOWARD THE VICINITY OF KPHL AND
KPNE AROUND 22Z. A WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND MOIST LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES. ALSO AIDING MAY BE THE LAKE ERIE MOISTURE PLUME
(RECENTLY LARGELY NON ICE COVERED).

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE
EVENING BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR OR WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN ABOUT 0Z TO 02Z. GUSTY
WNW WINDS 20-30 KT INTO THE EVENING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER
DURING THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIRRUS CIGS ARRIVE AND THEN
LOWER DURING THE AFTN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR AWHILE SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. MORE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
252 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 8 PM...CONTINUING SNOW SHOWER FORECAST, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH BRIEF SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. I THINK MOSTLY HIGHER
TERRAIN UNLESS WE CAN SEE SOME BANDS ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT GIVING UP, THOUGH DRIER DEWPOINTS AND 20+ TT/TD SPREADS ARGUE
AGAINST ACCUMS ANYWHERE SE OF A KABE-KMMU LINE. HOWEVER, HAVE SEEN
BANDS ORGANIZE BEFORE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RH CAN PERMIT
PROBLEM SNOW SQUALLS. WILL CHECK AT 320 PM FOR A FINAL DECISION ON
HOW TO HOPEFULLY BEST FORECAST THE PERIOD 330 PM TO 8 PM.

THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE SNOW SHOWERS...EXTREME AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL UP THROUGH MID
LVLS--- ROUGHLY 500MB. BOTH THE BGM WINDEX TOOL AND THE BTV
SNOWSQUALL PARM TOOLS INDICATED HUGE VALUES BOTH THIS MORNING,
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY WITH REAL DEAL TRUE
ARCTIC PLUNGE.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS DRY OUT OR TRAIL ESEWD OUT TO SEA THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC HEATING WANES AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WARMS A
BIT. SKIES CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN WITH SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON TODAYS FRESHENED SNOW COVER. RAN A 50 50 BLEND OF 12Z/11
GFS/NAM MOS BUT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR COOLER THAN THIS FCST BY
2-3 DEGREES OVER E PA AND NW NJ RADIATORS. SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO
IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KABE/KRDG AND KTTN DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY SLIP SOUTH TOWARD THE VICINITY OF KPHL AND
KPNE AROUND 22Z. A WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND MOIST LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES. ALSO AIDING MAY BE THE LAKE ERIE MOISTURE PLUME
(RECENTLY LARGELY NON ICE COVERED).

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE
EVENING BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR OR WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN ABOUT 0Z TO 02Z. GUSTY
WNW WINDS 20-30 KT INTO THE EVENING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER
DURING THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIRRUS CIGS ARRIVE AND THEN
LOWER DURING THE AFTN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...


SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA 252
NEAR TERM...DRAG 252
SHORT TERM...DRAG 252
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/KLINE 252
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 252
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111714
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1214 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1140 AM ESTF: HAVE UPDATED THE AFTN PACKAGE AND ONLY CHANGES
FORTHCOMING WITH THE STANDARD 1230PM MIGHT BE A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF SNOW AMTS IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. WE
HAVE WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REGION I-78 NORTH
BUT THE LEGACY READS FOR THE MOST PART, LITTLE OR NO.

"HEAVY" WORDING NOW RESERVED FOR I-78 REGION NORTH THIS AFTN.

UPDATED SNOW MAP POSTED.

COLD... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MID SHIFT TEMPS AND DEWS. WINDS
WERE BOOSTED ABOUT 5 MPH ON THE LAND....GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE SNOW SHOWERS...EXTREME AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL UP THROUGH MID
LVLS--- ROUGHLY 500MB. BOTH THE BGM WINDEX TOOL AND THE BTV SNOWSQL
PARM TOOLS SHOW HUGE VALUES BOTH THIS MORNING, THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY WITH REAL DEAL TRUE ARCTIC PLUNGE.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS TRAIL OUT TO SEA AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE SFC HEATING WANES AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WARMS A BIT. SKIES
CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ON TODAYS
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. WE WILL RUN A 50 50 BLEND OF 12Z/11 GFS/NAM
MOS BUT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR COOLER THAN THIS FCST BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OVER E PA AND NW NJ RADIATORS. SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 3 ABOVE
IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS
BECOME LIGHT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING CLOUDS...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS TURN SW
AND THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY
YIELD SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS AFTER 5 PM.  SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP KTTN/KRDG AND KABE DURING MID AFTN AND MAY SLIP
SOUTH TO VCNTY KPHL AND KACY AROUND 22Z. WEST WIND GUSTY AROUND 30
KT, ISOLATED 35 KT.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND MOIST LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES. ALSO AIDING MAY BE THE LAKE ERIE MOISTURE PLUME
(RECENTLY LARGELY NON ICE COVERED).

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 02Z. GUSTY WNW WINDS
20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. CIRRUS CIGS ARRIVE AND THEN LOWER DURING THE AFTN.
SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...

OUR MID AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1214
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1214
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 1214
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 1214
CLIMATE...1214




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
954 AM: MAY START HAMMERING I-80 AREA IN AN 11AM UPDATE...PENDING
A LITTLE MORE MODEL GUIDANCE. HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST RECENT CYCLE...STILL WAY BEHIND REALITY.


930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".


730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS
DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST THROUGH ANTICIPATE
BEEFING UP POPS LATE FRI DAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS.

NO CHANGES ATTM FOR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH KTTN, KABE, AND KRDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN
AND HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR
TO BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW
12Z/11 NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO GRASP THE SITN. CERTAINLY VERY LARGE LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES AS COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPORARILY LIFTS ENE.

BASICALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW - MOISTURE PLUME
CONNECTION TO THE STILL WIDE OPEN LERIE, THEN SEWD INTO SWRN PA
AND FROM THERE EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I-80 OR I-78
THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 954
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
CLIMATE...954



000
FXUS61 KPHI 111455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
954 AM: MAY START HAMMERING I-80 AREA IN AN 11AM UPDATE...PENDING
A LITTLE MORE MODEL GUIDANCE. HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST RECENT CYCLE...STILL WAY BEHIND REALITY.


930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".


730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS
DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST THROUGH ANTICIPATE
BEEFING UP POPS LATE FRI DAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS.

NO CHANGES ATTM FOR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH KTTN, KABE, AND KRDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN
AND HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR
TO BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW
12Z/11 NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO GRASP THE SITN. CERTAINLY VERY LARGE LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES AS COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPORARILY LIFTS ENE.

BASICALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW - MOISTURE PLUME
CONNECTION TO THE STILL WIDE OPEN LERIE, THEN SEWD INTO SWRN PA
AND FROM THERE EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I-80 OR I-78
THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 954
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
CLIMATE...954




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
954 AM: MAY START HAMMERING I-80 AREA IN AN 11AM UPDATE...PENDING
A LITTLE MORE MODEL GUIDANCE. HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST RECENT CYCLE...STILL WAY BEHIND REALITY.


930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".


730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS
DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST THROUGH ANTICIPATE
BEEFING UP POPS LATE FRI DAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS.

NO CHANGES ATTM FOR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH KTTN, KABE, AND KRDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN
AND HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR
TO BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW
12Z/11 NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO GRASP THE SITN. CERTAINLY VERY LARGE LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES AS COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPORARILY LIFTS ENE.

BASICALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW - MOISTURE PLUME
CONNECTION TO THE STILL WIDE OPEN LERIE, THEN SEWD INTO SWRN PA
AND FROM THERE EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I-80 OR I-78
THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 954
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
CLIMATE...954




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".

730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH TTN ABE AND RDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND
HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR TO
BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW 12Z/11
NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.

BASICALLY A LES CONNECTION FROM LERIE SEWD INTO SRN PA AND THEN
EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I80 OR I78 THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON  930A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".

730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH TTN ABE AND RDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND
HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR TO
BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW 12Z/11
NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.

BASICALLY A LES CONNECTION FROM LERIE SEWD INTO SRN PA AND THEN
EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I80 OR I78 THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON  930A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 111334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
834 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...834A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
834 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...834A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
834 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...834A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KPHL, KPNE, KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN
THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 111127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KPHL, KPNE, KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN
THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KPHL, KPNE, KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN
THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 110840
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBILE TRACKS FROM EARLIER
MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z 2/10 ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AL/GA
NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE EAST
COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE PRESENT TO
TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CHANGING THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS FIRST IS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THAT
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD TEND
TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST. WHILE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED
TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN THROUGH 21Z,
BUT THESE LOCATIONS ARE ON THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF WHERE WE EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBILE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY FROM
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 110245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY,
SWEEPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL
OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
TWO STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC, AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS PASSING ACROSS THE MIDDLE DELMARVA PENINSULA
AND IT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF DELAWARE.

A NEGATIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 400 AM TIME FRAME. THE FEATURE MAY TOUCH
OFF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

A WEST WIND WILL FAVOR THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH 11
AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT
KPHL! WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING,
TAPERING DOWN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES
DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY,
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY
EVENT, THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND KRDG, KABE AND
KTTN IN THE 0400Z TO 0800Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE WEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND
THESE WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID
JANUARY WATER TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING,
EVEN IN DE BAY IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED AND I THINK BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY
STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...DRAG




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