Home > Products > State Listing > Delaware Data
Latest:
 AFDPHI |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 232119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT /230 MPH/ NEAR L ONTARIO). FOR THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS A MB PER
HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT IS POSTED ON OUR
WEB SITE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NJ...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT
MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 418
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG 418
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 418
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT /230 MPH/ NEAR L ONTARIO). FOR THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS A MB PER
HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT IS POSTED ON OUR
WEB SITE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NJ...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT
MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 418
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG 418
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 418
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT /230 MPH/ NEAR L ONTARIO). FOR THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS A MB PER
HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT IS POSTED ON OUR
WEB SITE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NJ...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT
MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 418
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG 418
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 418
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 232038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY
  I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT NEAR L ONTARIO). WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENING AT A MB
PER HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT YOU SEE.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE...MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR FLURRIES...
ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 338
NEAR TERM...GORSE 338
SHORT TERM...GORSE 338
LONG TERM...DRAG 338
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 338
MARINE...GORSE 338
CLIMATE...KLINE 338








000
FXUS61 KPHI 232038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY
  I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT NEAR L ONTARIO). WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENING AT A MB
PER HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT YOU SEE.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE...MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR FLURRIES...
ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 338
NEAR TERM...GORSE 338
SHORT TERM...GORSE 338
LONG TERM...DRAG 338
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 338
MARINE...GORSE 338
CLIMATE...KLINE 338









000
FXUS61 KPHI 231724
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RESULTING
IN A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, A RIDGE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE PRESENT OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO DEFLECT LINGERING WEAK LIFT
FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING WITH
TIME TODAY. THEREFORE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA ZONES
AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THIS IS CIRRUS FROM THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. OVERALL, CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY EVENING.

WE REMAIN UNDER A WAA REGIME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AFTERNOON, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WERE INCREASED SOME ACROSS MANY AREAS. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THIS INCLUDED A BIT
FASTER INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SOUTH AND
EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR AWHILE IN THE MORNING, THEN
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR AND THEN PERHAPS VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN
DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY,
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVG FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS. THE ASSOCD WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 231433
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RESULTING
IN A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, A RIDGE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE PRESENT OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO DEFLECT LINGERING WEAK LIFT
FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING WITH
TIME TODAY. THEREFORE, ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ARE
EXPECTED TO END. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF MORE PRONOUNCED CLOUDINESS,
ONE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LIFT, AND THE
SECOND IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA ZONES. THE LATTER IS
CIRRUS FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
OVERALL, CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE TODAY HOWEVER THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF AN INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
EVENING.

GIVEN THE WAA OCCURRING WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME PLUS
TEMPERATURES STARTING MUCH WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THIS INCLUDED A FASTER INCREASE IN
THE TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SOUTH AND
EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR AWHILE IN THE MORNING, THEN
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR AND THEN PERHAPS VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN
DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY,
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVG FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS. THE ASSOCD WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 231433
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RESULTING
IN A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, A RIDGE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE PRESENT OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO DEFLECT LINGERING WEAK LIFT
FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING WITH
TIME TODAY. THEREFORE, ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ARE
EXPECTED TO END. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF MORE PRONOUNCED CLOUDINESS,
ONE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LIFT, AND THE
SECOND IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA ZONES. THE LATTER IS
CIRRUS FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
OVERALL, CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE TODAY HOWEVER THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF AN INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
EVENING.

GIVEN THE WAA OCCURRING WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME PLUS
TEMPERATURES STARTING MUCH WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THIS INCLUDED A FASTER INCREASE IN
THE TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SOUTH AND
EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR AWHILE IN THE MORNING, THEN
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR AND THEN PERHAPS VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN
DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY,
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVG FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS. THE ASSOCD WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230914 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230914 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230914 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230914 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGH HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECWMF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDENSDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECEIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLESANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTENENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDENSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GNERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 222350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE SPS THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 6;30 PM UPDATE AS
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 222350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE SPS THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 6;30 PM UPDATE AS
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221917
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
217 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS MOVING INTO MANY
AREAS FASTER, AND ALSO TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES AS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW-LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO MAINLY JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER
TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME OF THIS GRAZES OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
WHICH WOULD EITHER RESULT IN VIRGA OR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. ANY LIGHT INTENSITY WOULD FAVOR DEW
POINTS INCREASING WITH LESS OF A TEMPERATURE DROP. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THOUGH AND A MENTION REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP WITH
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. THE BEST WAA IS SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST
PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER
MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH
RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS, THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE
HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING EASTWARD. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH
AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221917
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
217 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS MOVING INTO MANY
AREAS FASTER, AND ALSO TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES AS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW-LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO MAINLY JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER
TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME OF THIS GRAZES OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
WHICH WOULD EITHER RESULT IN VIRGA OR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. ANY LIGHT INTENSITY WOULD FAVOR DEW
POINTS INCREASING WITH LESS OF A TEMPERATURE DROP. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THOUGH AND A MENTION REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP WITH
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. THE BEST WAA IS SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST
PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER
MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH
RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS, THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE
HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING EASTWARD. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH
AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221917
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
217 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS MOVING INTO MANY
AREAS FASTER, AND ALSO TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES AS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW-LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO MAINLY JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER
TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME OF THIS GRAZES OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
WHICH WOULD EITHER RESULT IN VIRGA OR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. ANY LIGHT INTENSITY WOULD FAVOR DEW
POINTS INCREASING WITH LESS OF A TEMPERATURE DROP. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THOUGH AND A MENTION REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP WITH
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. THE BEST WAA IS SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST
PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER
MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH
RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS, THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE
HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING EASTWARD. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH
AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221917
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
217 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS MOVING INTO MANY
AREAS FASTER, AND ALSO TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES AS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW-LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO MAINLY JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER
TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME OF THIS GRAZES OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
WHICH WOULD EITHER RESULT IN VIRGA OR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. ANY LIGHT INTENSITY WOULD FAVOR DEW
POINTS INCREASING WITH LESS OF A TEMPERATURE DROP. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THOUGH AND A MENTION REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP WITH
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. THE BEST WAA IS SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST
PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER
MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH
RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS, THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE
HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING EASTWARD. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH
AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1140 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A WARM LAYER
CENTERED JUST ABOVE 900 MB. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR, WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS.
THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN HAVE BASICALLY BEEN 30 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z.
THIS IS LOW AND AND IT APPEARS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES
THE GROUND. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OTHERWISE, SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE, WAA
AND LOW-LEVEL JET PUSH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, BETTER MIXING
IS OCCURRING AND THEREFORE SOME GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE THESE DROP OFF TOWARD EVENING. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1140 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A WARM LAYER
CENTERED JUST ABOVE 900 MB. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR, WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS.
THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN HAVE BASICALLY BEEN 30 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z.
THIS IS LOW AND AND IT APPEARS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES
THE GROUND. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OTHERWISE, SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE, WAA
AND LOW-LEVEL JET PUSH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, BETTER MIXING
IS OCCURRING AND THEREFORE SOME GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE THESE DROP OFF TOWARD EVENING. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH A
CLEAR SKY, LOW DEW POINTS AND NO WIND RESULTED IN A VERY COLD START
TO THE DAY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE
EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS. THESE
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS,
WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE BASICALLY 30 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z. THIS
IS LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IS LOW. THEREFORE, WE KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING TOWARD EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE, SOME MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM, AS
SOME BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE CAN BE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
ANY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
KABE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6
AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH A
CLEAR SKY, LOW DEW POINTS AND NO WIND RESULTED IN A VERY COLD START
TO THE DAY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE
EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS. THESE
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS,
WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE BASICALLY 30 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z. THIS
IS LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IS LOW. THEREFORE, WE KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING TOWARD EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE, SOME MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM, AS
SOME BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE CAN BE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
ANY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
KABE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6
AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH A
CLEAR SKY, LOW DEW POINTS AND NO WIND RESULTED IN A VERY COLD START
TO THE DAY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE
EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS. THESE
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS,
WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE BASICALLY 30 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z. THIS
IS LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IS LOW. THEREFORE, WE KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING TOWARD EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE, SOME MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM, AS
SOME BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE CAN BE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
ANY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
KABE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6
AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH A
CLEAR SKY, LOW DEW POINTS AND NO WIND RESULTED IN A VERY COLD START
TO THE DAY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE
EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS. THESE
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS,
WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE BASICALLY 30 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z. THIS
IS LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IS LOW. THEREFORE, WE KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING TOWARD EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE, SOME MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM, AS
SOME BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE CAN BE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
ANY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
KABE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6
AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221116
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOIST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NW NJ. BUT IT
STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR REGION, SO MOST OF THE
REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AAND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORMS MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, FIRST HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, THEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS (AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT AGL) WILL MOVE IN CLOSER TO 00Z. THERE
IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF -RA OR -FZRA GENERALLY N AND W OF THE
I95 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING KABE AND KRDG) BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z.
HOWEVER, AT KRDG AND KABE IT IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE -RA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC, AND
MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR 11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 SET IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 SET IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 SET IN 1964

ALLENTOWN 17 SET IN 1969 AND 1964 *HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AS
ALLENTOWN HAS HAD A LOW SO FAR OF 16*

TRENTON 15 SET IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 SET IN 1987
READING 16 SET IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 SET IN 1969

SO FAR ONLY ALLENTOWN HAS SET A RECORD LOW. HOWEVER A FEW SITES
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RECORDS SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SENDING OUT ANY RECORD EVENT REPORTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOIST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NW NJ. BUT IT
STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR REGION, SO MOST OF THE
REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AAND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORMS MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE DE RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF -RA OR -FZRA IN THIS
AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z. HOWEVER, AT KRDG AND KABE, IT IS ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHANCE, AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE -RA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC, AND
MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR 11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 SET IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 SET IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 SET IN 1964

ALLENTOWN 17 SET IN 1969 AND 1964 *HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AS
ALLENTOWN HAS HAD A LOW SO FAR OF 16*

TRENTON 15 SET IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 SET IN 1987
READING 16 SET IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 SET IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCREASING, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SENDING OUT ANY RECORD EVENT REPORTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOIST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NW NJ. BUT IT
STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR REGION, SO MOST OF THE
REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AAND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORMS MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE DE RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF -RA OR -FZRA IN THIS
AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z. HOWEVER, AT KRDG AND KABE, IT IS ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHANCE, AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE -RA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC, AND
MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR 11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 SET IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 SET IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 SET IN 1964

ALLENTOWN 17 SET IN 1969 AND 1964 *HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AS
ALLENTOWN HAS HAD A LOW SO FAR OF 16*

TRENTON 15 SET IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 SET IN 1987
READING 16 SET IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 SET IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCREASING, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SENDING OUT ANY RECORD EVENT REPORTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOIST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NW NJ. BUT IT
STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR REGION, SO MOST OF THE
REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AAND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORMS MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE DE RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF -RA OR -FZRA IN THIS
AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z. HOWEVER, AT KRDG AND KABE, IT IS ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHANCE, AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE -RA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC, AND
MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR 11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 SET IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 SET IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 SET IN 1964

ALLENTOWN 17 SET IN 1969 AND 1964 *HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AS
ALLENTOWN HAS HAD A LOW SO FAR OF 16*

TRENTON 15 SET IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 SET IN 1987
READING 16 SET IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 SET IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCREASING, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SENDING OUT ANY RECORD EVENT REPORTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOIST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NW NJ. BUT IT
STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR REGION, SO MOST OF THE
REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AAND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORMS MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE DE RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF -RA OR -FZRA IN THIS
AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z. HOWEVER, AT KRDG AND KABE, IT IS ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHANCE, AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE -RA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC, AND
MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR 11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 SET IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 SET IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 SET IN 1964

ALLENTOWN 17 SET IN 1969 AND 1964 *HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AS
ALLENTOWN HAS HAD A LOW SO FAR OF 16*

TRENTON 15 SET IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 SET IN 1987
READING 16 SET IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 SET IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCREASING, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SENDING OUT ANY RECORD EVENT REPORTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME
HEATING THAT PROMOTES MIXING. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A
DRY ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE- COUPLING OF
THE SURFACE LAYER. THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS
FOR THE DATE FOR SOME LOCATIONS, SEE CLIMATE SECTION. HWVR URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

9:30 PM UPDATE: SOME LOCATION HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO COOL
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. URBAN CENTERS SUCH AS
PHL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COOL AND SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISED SLIGHTLY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS STATED ABOVE WAA IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE COMING INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF ACROSS REGIONS THAT HAVE
COOLED FASTER. STILL A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN IS ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT MERIT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WE ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT
6PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND THEN SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL. SEAS WILL BE ALSO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 8

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
CLIMATE... DRAG/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME
HEATING THAT PROMOTES MIXING. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A
DRY ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE- COUPLING OF
THE SURFACE LAYER. THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS
FOR THE DATE FOR SOME LOCATIONS, SEE CLIMATE SECTION. HWVR URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

9:30 PM UPDATE: SOME LOCATION HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO COOL
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. URBAN CENTERS SUCH AS
PHL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COOL AND SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISED SLIGHTLY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS STATED ABOVE WAA IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE COMING INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF ACROSS REGIONS THAT HAVE
COOLED FASTER. STILL A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN IS ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT MERIT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WE ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT
6PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND THEN SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL. SEAS WILL BE ALSO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 8

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
CLIMATE... DRAG/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME
HEATING THAT PROMOTES MIXING. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A
DRY ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE- COUPLING OF
THE SURFACE LAYER. THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS
FOR THE DATE FOR SOME LOCATIONS, SEE CLIMATE SECTION. HWVR URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

9:30 PM UPDATE: SOME LOCATION HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO COOL
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. URBAN CENTERS SUCH AS
PHL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COOL AND SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISED SLIGHTLY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS STATED ABOVE WAA IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE COMING INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF ACROSS REGIONS THAT HAVE
COOLED FASTER. STILL A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN IS ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT MERIT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WE ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT
6PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND THEN SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL. SEAS WILL BE ALSO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 8

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
CLIMATE... DRAG/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME
HEATING THAT PROMOTES MIXING. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A
DRY ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE- COUPLING OF
THE SURFACE LAYER. THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS
FOR THE DATE FOR SOME LOCATIONS, SEE CLIMATE SECTION. HWVR URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

9:30 PM UPDATE: SOME LOCATION HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO COOL
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. URBAN CENTERS SUCH AS
PHL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COOL AND SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISED SLIGHTLY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS STATED ABOVE WAA IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE COMING INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF ACROSS REGIONS THAT HAVE
COOLED FASTER. STILL A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN IS ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT MERIT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WE ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT
6PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND THEN SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL. SEAS WILL BE ALSO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 8

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
CLIMATE... DRAG/GAINES







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities