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000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
NE MD...DE AND FAR SW NJ AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PRODUCES MID LEVEL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE 545 AM UPDATE
ATTEMPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORT PERIOD LEFTOVERS.

OTHERWISE...THICK FOG ALONG MD`S E SHORE AND PORTIONS OF E PA W AND NW
OF PHL AS WELL AS FAR NW NJ WILL BEGIN THINNING AROUND 730 OR 8 AM.
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTS THAT DIFFICULTY.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS
INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER
THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 10000 FT VCNTY N DE AND NE MD AT 10Z SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AND
DRY OUT AROUND 12-13Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL CORE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN
MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 3 MI FOG
PATCHES AND EVEN BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG MAINLY VCNTY
KRDG/KABE.


AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE
LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 558
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 558
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 558






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
NE MD...DE AND FAR SW NJ AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PRODUCES MID LEVEL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE 545 AM UPDATE
ATTEMPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORT PERIOD LEFTOVERS.

OTHERWISE...THICK FOG ALONG MD`S E SHORE AND PORTIONS OF E PA W AND NW
OF PHL AS WELL AS FAR NW NJ WILL BEGIN THINNING AROUND 730 OR 8 AM.
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTS THAT DIFFICULTY.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS
INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER
THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 10000 FT VCNTY N DE AND NE MD AT 10Z SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AND
DRY OUT AROUND 12-13Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL CORE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN
MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 3 MI FOG
PATCHES AND EVEN BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG MAINLY VCNTY
KRDG/KABE.


AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE
LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 558
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 558
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 558







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300706
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
NEAR TERM...DRAG 305
SHORT TERM...DRAG 305
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 305







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300706
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
NEAR TERM...DRAG 305
SHORT TERM...DRAG 305
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 305






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1142 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SLIDES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1140 PM UPDATE...RAISED POPS MD/PA BORDER AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN DE
AND EASTERN NJ THROUGH 07Z. TOO MUCH RAIN ON RADAR. THEN THE
CONCERN...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MODELED...HOW
EXTENSIVE THE FOG AT SUNRISE TUESDAY. COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOP PORTIONS OF E PA WHERE IT CLEARS BY 09Z AND THEN SEPARATELY
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS.

TUESDAY...A QUIET MORNING EXPECTED...THEN SCT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN E PA PER INCREASING INSTABILITY
ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS COOL 2C LATE IN THE DAY STEEPENING MID LVL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
500MB TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH
SUBTLE LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND
THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LVL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR 11Z BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE
WHERE IT RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z....SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN MID-LATE AFTN WITH A
POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR
ST/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHC OF SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF
KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WIND 10-20 KT WITH ATLC SEAS NEAR 4 FT. NO HEADLINE
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1141
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300305
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1105 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SLIDES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1040 PM UPDATE...RAISED POPS ON PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
COASTAL NJ THROUGH ABOUT 07Z AND LOWERED POPS NE PA AND NW NJ.
TOO MUCH RAIN ON RADAR. THEN THE CONCERN...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE
MUCH HIGHER THAN MODELED...HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG AT SUNRISE
TUESDAY. COULD SEE PATCH DENSE DEVELOP PORTIONS OF E PA WHERE IT
CLEARS BY 09Z AND THEN SEPARATELY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS.

TUESDAY...A QUIET MORNING EXPECTED...THEN SCT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN E PA PER INCREASING INSTABILITY
ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS COOL 2C LATE IN THE DAY STEEPENING MID LVL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
500MB TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH
SUBTLE LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK ELY WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING NE FLOW NE
OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LVL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDS BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT RAINED
THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z....SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN MID-LATE AFTN WITH A
POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR
ST/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHC OF SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF
KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WIND 10-20 KT WITH ATLC SEAS NEAR 4 FT. NO HEADLINE
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 1104
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1104
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER 1104
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1104
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 1104






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE
RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER
THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05
INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY
WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN
TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET
FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. DRY
TAFS. OVERNIGHT, SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET
MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG, EXCEPT AT
RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE FOG. ANY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z TUESDAY LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4,000
FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
RDG AND ABE AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD WHICH CURRENTLY RUNS TILL
18Z TUESDAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291609
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1209 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291609
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1209 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO
THE VALUES CURRENTLY LISTED ABOVE, GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR
TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO
THE VALUES CURRENTLY LISTED ABOVE, GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR
TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO
THE VALUES CURRENTLY LISTED ABOVE, GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR
TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO
THE VALUES CURRENTLY LISTED ABOVE, GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR
TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
456 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CLOSING DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS AND A FEW LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 455
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG 455
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 455
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 455







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
456 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CLOSING DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS AND A FEW LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 455
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG 455
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 455
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 455








000
FXUS61 KPHI 290758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CLOSING DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS AND A FEW LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT PRODUCERS. THUNDER IS
IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA ND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM AS THE RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT ARRIVES.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT. DE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH
ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&



.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 359
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 359
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 359
LONG TERM...DRAG 359
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 359
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 359
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...359







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CLOSING DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS AND A FEW LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT PRODUCERS. THUNDER IS
IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA ND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM AS THE RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT ARRIVES.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT. DE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH
ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&



.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 359
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 359
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 359
LONG TERM...DRAG 359
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 359
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 359
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...359






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR WEST VIRGINA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BE LOCATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THIS
FLOW, SO PATCHY FOG COULD POP UP IN A FEW MORE PLACES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PKG AS QUIET WX PATN
CONTINUES. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. STREAMS NORTH. THE GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE SO NO PRECIPITATION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS ATTM. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
GREATER AGREEMENT OF ANY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE STAYING WELL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THIS
PERIOD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. STAYED RELATIVITY CLOSE
TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE MODEL
SPREAD PRESENT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ACTUALLY IMPLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN FEATURED IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ANY COASTAL LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE, PERHAPS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF A INVERTED TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BUT LEFT FORECAST DRY
MONDAY NIGHT ATTM. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MAIN FEATURE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A NICE SPIKE IN VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING
AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATE PW
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS WITH RH ONLY AROUND
50%. SO EVEN WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IT`S GOING TO BE HARD TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF,
CHANCE POPS AS WELL. WITH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND SOME VERY
LIMITED CAPE (UNDER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CUMULUS. AREAS NW OF PHL WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THIS
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COASTAL LOW
WELL OFFSHORE THAT STALLS OR MOVES SLOW EAST TO START. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A EASTERLY FLOW THAT TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPARED TO THE
FRONT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE HIGHER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO SOME HEAVY SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
INSTABILITY LOOKS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, PERHAPS 100 J/KG AS SHOWN
ON THE 00Z ECMWF. NO ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A FACTOR WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION IS THAT THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODELED
925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER. FOR SUNDAY MORNING 12Z GFS LOW TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST.
HOWEVER THINK THIS IS TO COOL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH NO MAJOR
IMPACT ON AVIATION EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ALL WITH CIGS AOA
10000 FEET, ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SOME LOW MVFR CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY OTHERWISE VFR.


TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. E/NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SRLY OR SERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING SWRLY ON MONDAY...ALL GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST A
AVERAGE EASTERLY FLOW IN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS ABOVE FIVE FEET WITH A BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALSO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 FOOT OR GREATER ONSHORE FLOW POSITIVE DEPARTURE SURGE
IS POSSIBLE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIDAL CYCLE
BUT DEPARTURES LOOK ABOUT 1/2 FOOT SHORT NOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR WEST VIRGINA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BE LOCATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THIS
FLOW, SO PATCHY FOG COULD POP UP IN A FEW MORE PLACES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PKG AS QUIET WX PATN
CONTINUES. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. STREAMS NORTH. THE GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE SO NO PRECIPITATION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS ATTM. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
GREATER AGREEMENT OF ANY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE STAYING WELL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THIS
PERIOD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. STAYED RELATIVITY CLOSE
TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE MODEL
SPREAD PRESENT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ACTUALLY IMPLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN FEATURED IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ANY COASTAL LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE, PERHAPS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF A INVERTED TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BUT LEFT FORECAST DRY
MONDAY NIGHT ATTM. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MAIN FEATURE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A NICE SPIKE IN VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING
AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATE PW
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS WITH RH ONLY AROUND
50%. SO EVEN WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IT`S GOING TO BE HARD TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF,
CHANCE POPS AS WELL. WITH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND SOME VERY
LIMITED CAPE (UNDER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CUMULUS. AREAS NW OF PHL WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THIS
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COASTAL LOW
WELL OFFSHORE THAT STALLS OR MOVES SLOW EAST TO START. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A EASTERLY FLOW THAT TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPARED TO THE
FRONT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE HIGHER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO SOME HEAVY SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
INSTABILITY LOOKS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, PERHAPS 100 J/KG AS SHOWN
ON THE 00Z ECMWF. NO ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A FACTOR WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION IS THAT THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODELED
925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER. FOR SUNDAY MORNING 12Z GFS LOW TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST.
HOWEVER THINK THIS IS TO COOL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH NO MAJOR
IMPACT ON AVIATION EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ALL WITH CIGS AOA
10000 FEET, ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SOME LOW MVFR CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY OTHERWISE VFR.


TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. E/NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SRLY OR SERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING SWRLY ON MONDAY...ALL GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST A
AVERAGE EASTERLY FLOW IN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS ABOVE FIVE FEET WITH A BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALSO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 FOOT OR GREATER ONSHORE FLOW POSITIVE DEPARTURE SURGE
IS POSSIBLE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIDAL CYCLE
BUT DEPARTURES LOOK ABOUT 1/2 FOOT SHORT NOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281913
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR WEST VIRGINA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BE LOCATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THIS
FLOW, SO PATCHY FOG COULD POP UP IN A FEW MORE PLACES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. STREAMS NORTH. THE GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE SO NO PRECIPITATION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS ATTM. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
GREATER AGREEMENT OF ANY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE STAYING WELL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THIS
PERIOD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. STAYED RELATIVITY CLOSE
TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE MODEL
SPREAD PRESENT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ACTUALLY IMPLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN FEATURED IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ANY COASTAL LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE, PERHAPS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF A INVERTED TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BUT LEFT FORECAST DRY
MONDAY NIGHT ATTM. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MAIN FEATURE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A NICE SPIKE IN VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING
AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATE PW
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS WITH RH ONLY AROUND
50%. SO EVEN WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IT`S GOING TO BE HARD TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF,
CHANCE POPS AS WELL. WITH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND SOME VERY
LIMITED CAPE (UNDER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CUMULUS. AREAS NW OF PHL WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THIS
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COASTAL LOW
WELL OFFSHORE THAT STALLS OR MOVES SLOW EAST TO START. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A EASTERLY FLOW THAT TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPARED TO THE
FRONT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE HIGHER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO SOME HEAVY SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
INSTABILITY LOOKS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, PERHAPS 100 J/KG AS SHOWN
ON THE 00Z ECMWF. NO ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A FACTOR WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION IS THAT THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODELED
925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER. FOR SUNDAY MORNING 12Z GFS LOW TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST.
HOWEVER THINK THIS IS TO COOL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH NO MAJOR
IMPACT ON AVIATION EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ALL WITH CIGS AOA
10000 FEET, ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SOME LOW MVFR CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY OTHERWISE VFR.


TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. E/NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SRLY OR SERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING SWRLY ON MONDAY...ALL GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST A
AVERAGE EASTERLY FLOW IN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS ABOVE FIVE FEET WITH A BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALSO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 FOOT OR GREATER ONSHORE FLOW POSITIVE DEPARTURE SURGE
IS POSSIBLE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIDAL CYCLE
BUT DEPARTURES LOOK ABOUT 1/2 FOOT SHORT NOW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281913
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR WEST VIRGINA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BE LOCATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THIS
FLOW, SO PATCHY FOG COULD POP UP IN A FEW MORE PLACES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. STREAMS NORTH. THE GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE SO NO PRECIPITATION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS ATTM. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
GREATER AGREEMENT OF ANY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE STAYING WELL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THIS
PERIOD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. STAYED RELATIVITY CLOSE
TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE MODEL
SPREAD PRESENT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ACTUALLY IMPLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN FEATURED IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ANY COASTAL LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE, PERHAPS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF A INVERTED TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BUT LEFT FORECAST DRY
MONDAY NIGHT ATTM. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MAIN FEATURE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A NICE SPIKE IN VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING
AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATE PW
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS WITH RH ONLY AROUND
50%. SO EVEN WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IT`S GOING TO BE HARD TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF,
CHANCE POPS AS WELL. WITH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND SOME VERY
LIMITED CAPE (UNDER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CUMULUS. AREAS NW OF PHL WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THIS
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COASTAL LOW
WELL OFFSHORE THAT STALLS OR MOVES SLOW EAST TO START. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A EASTERLY FLOW THAT TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPARED TO THE
FRONT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE HIGHER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO SOME HEAVY SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
INSTABILITY LOOKS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, PERHAPS 100 J/KG AS SHOWN
ON THE 00Z ECMWF. NO ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A FACTOR WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION IS THAT THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODELED
925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER. FOR SUNDAY MORNING 12Z GFS LOW TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST.
HOWEVER THINK THIS IS TO COOL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH NO MAJOR
IMPACT ON AVIATION EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ALL WITH CIGS AOA
10000 FEET, ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SOME LOW MVFR CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY OTHERWISE VFR.


TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. E/NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SRLY OR SERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING SWRLY ON MONDAY...ALL GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST A
AVERAGE EASTERLY FLOW IN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS ABOVE FIVE FEET WITH A BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALSO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 FOOT OR GREATER ONSHORE FLOW POSITIVE DEPARTURE SURGE
IS POSSIBLE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIDAL CYCLE
BUT DEPARTURES LOOK ABOUT 1/2 FOOT SHORT NOW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281913
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR WEST VIRGINA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BE LOCATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THIS
FLOW, SO PATCHY FOG COULD POP UP IN A FEW MORE PLACES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. STREAMS NORTH. THE GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE SO NO PRECIPITATION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS ATTM. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
GREATER AGREEMENT OF ANY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE STAYING WELL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THIS
PERIOD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. STAYED RELATIVITY CLOSE
TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE MODEL
SPREAD PRESENT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ACTUALLY IMPLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN FEATURED IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ANY COASTAL LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE, PERHAPS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF A INVERTED TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BUT LEFT FORECAST DRY
MONDAY NIGHT ATTM. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MAIN FEATURE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A NICE SPIKE IN VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING
AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATE PW
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS WITH RH ONLY AROUND
50%. SO EVEN WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IT`S GOING TO BE HARD TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF,
CHANCE POPS AS WELL. WITH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND SOME VERY
LIMITED CAPE (UNDER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CUMULUS. AREAS NW OF PHL WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THIS
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COASTAL LOW
WELL OFFSHORE THAT STALLS OR MOVES SLOW EAST TO START. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A EASTERLY FLOW THAT TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPARED TO THE
FRONT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE HIGHER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO SOME HEAVY SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
INSTABILITY LOOKS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, PERHAPS 100 J/KG AS SHOWN
ON THE 00Z ECMWF. NO ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A FACTOR WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION IS THAT THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODELED
925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER. FOR SUNDAY MORNING 12Z GFS LOW TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST.
HOWEVER THINK THIS IS TO COOL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH NO MAJOR
IMPACT ON AVIATION EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ALL WITH CIGS AOA
10000 FEET, ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SOME LOW MVFR CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY OTHERWISE VFR.


TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. E/NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SRLY OR SERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING SWRLY ON MONDAY...ALL GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST A
AVERAGE EASTERLY FLOW IN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS ABOVE FIVE FEET WITH A BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALSO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 FOOT OR GREATER ONSHORE FLOW POSITIVE DEPARTURE SURGE
IS POSSIBLE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIDAL CYCLE
BUT DEPARTURES LOOK ABOUT 1/2 FOOT SHORT NOW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281913
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR WEST VIRGINA THROUGH MONDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BE LOCATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THIS
FLOW, SO PATCHY FOG COULD POP UP IN A FEW MORE PLACES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. STREAMS NORTH. THE GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE SO NO PRECIPITATION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS ATTM. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
GREATER AGREEMENT OF ANY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE STAYING WELL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THIS
PERIOD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. STAYED RELATIVITY CLOSE
TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE MODEL
SPREAD PRESENT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ACTUALLY IMPLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY EVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN FEATURED IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ANY COASTAL LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE, PERHAPS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF A INVERTED TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BUT LEFT FORECAST DRY
MONDAY NIGHT ATTM. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MAIN FEATURE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A NICE SPIKE IN VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING
AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATE PW
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS WITH RH ONLY AROUND
50%. SO EVEN WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IT`S GOING TO BE HARD TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF,
CHANCE POPS AS WELL. WITH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND SOME VERY
LIMITED CAPE (UNDER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CUMULUS. AREAS NW OF PHL WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THIS
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COASTAL LOW
WELL OFFSHORE THAT STALLS OR MOVES SLOW EAST TO START. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A EASTERLY FLOW THAT TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMPARED TO THE
FRONT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE HIGHER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO SOME HEAVY SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
INSTABILITY LOOKS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, PERHAPS 100 J/KG AS SHOWN
ON THE 00Z ECMWF. NO ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A FACTOR WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION IS THAT THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE MODELED
925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER. FOR SUNDAY MORNING 12Z GFS LOW TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST.
HOWEVER THINK THIS IS TO COOL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH NO MAJOR
IMPACT ON AVIATION EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ALL WITH CIGS AOA
10000 FEET, ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SOME LOW MVFR CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY OTHERWISE VFR.


TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. E/NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SRLY OR SERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING SWRLY ON MONDAY...ALL GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST A
AVERAGE EASTERLY FLOW IN LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS ABOVE FIVE FEET WITH A BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALSO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 FOOT OR GREATER ONSHORE FLOW POSITIVE DEPARTURE SURGE
IS POSSIBLE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE WITH THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIDAL CYCLE
BUT DEPARTURES LOOK ABOUT 1/2 FOOT SHORT NOW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG/GAINES






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