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000
FXUS61 KPHI 261826
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
126 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 261826
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
126 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 261653
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE/TTN WHERE THE RAIN HAS
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND IS MODERATE. A TRANSITION TO SN HAS
ALSO OCCURRED AT PNE/RDG/ILG WHILE A MIX OF RA/SN/PL IS OCCURRING
AT PHL. PRECIP MAY CHANGE BACK TO A RA/SN/PL MIX BETWEEN 18Z-00Z
FOR THE I-95 TERMINALS AS A WARM LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT. IFR/LIFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND
STEADIER PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER.
IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL (THE GFS) SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING
THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN
GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO
12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 261653
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE/TTN WHERE THE RAIN HAS
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND IS MODERATE. A TRANSITION TO SN HAS
ALSO OCCURRED AT PNE/RDG/ILG WHILE A MIX OF RA/SN/PL IS OCCURRING
AT PHL. PRECIP MAY CHANGE BACK TO A RA/SN/PL MIX BETWEEN 18Z-00Z
FOR THE I-95 TERMINALS AS A WARM LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT. IFR/LIFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND
STEADIER PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER.
IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL (THE GFS) SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING
THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN
GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO
12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 261530
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL, CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECIEVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE WHERE RA HAS CHANGED
OVER TO SN. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN TO OCCUR AROUND
16Z AT RDG. THE CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN MAY BE DELAYED BY A FEW
HOURS IN PHL/ILG (DURING THE 18-21Z PERIOD). THERE MAY EVEN BE A
RA/SN/IP MIX FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIP
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 16 AND
00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY NEAR 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 200 FT. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE
GFS, SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z
FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA/KLEIN
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 261530
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL, CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECIEVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE WHERE RA HAS CHANGED
OVER TO SN. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN TO OCCUR AROUND
16Z AT RDG. THE CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN MAY BE DELAYED BY A FEW
HOURS IN PHL/ILG (DURING THE 18-21Z PERIOD). THERE MAY EVEN BE A
RA/SN/IP MIX FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIP
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 16 AND
00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY NEAR 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 200 FT. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE
GFS, SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z
FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA/KLEIN
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 261129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND MAX TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, AND ADJUSTED MAX TO REFLECT WHAT WE EXPECT THE TEMPS TO
BE AT 12Z, AS THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHEN MOST PLACES REACH THEIR DAY
TIME HIGH, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PRECIP TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME AS DEW POINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE ARE NEAR
FREEZING, THUS ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN THOSE AREAS, SHOULD
SEE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN
WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR
THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY AROUND 15Z. EXPECT ALL
SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY 18Z. HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES
OCCASIONALLY AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT
AGL BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE
MODEL, THE GFS, SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING
THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER
WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 261129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND MAX TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, AND ADJUSTED MAX TO REFLECT WHAT WE EXPECT THE TEMPS TO
BE AT 12Z, AS THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHEN MOST PLACES REACH THEIR DAY
TIME HIGH, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PRECIP TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME AS DEW POINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE ARE NEAR
FREEZING, THUS ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN THOSE AREAS, SHOULD
SEE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN
WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR
THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY AROUND 15Z. EXPECT ALL
SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY 18Z. HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES
OCCASIONALLY AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT
AGL BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE
MODEL, THE GFS, SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING
THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER
WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 260852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY MID DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT AGL
BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE GFS,
SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR
KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 260852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY MID DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT AGL
BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE GFS,
SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR
KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 260852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY MID DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT AGL
BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE GFS,
SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR
KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 260852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY MID DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT AGL
BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE GFS,
SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR
KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 260226
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
00Z SFC ANALYSIS VS MODEL 6 TO 12HR PROJECTIONS FAVORS EITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF. ODD PART WAS THE ECMWF CONVECTIVE QPF LOCATIONS
WAS TOO SOUTH IN FL. OTHER MODELS ARE BETTER WITH LOCATION, NONE ARE
GOOD WITH AMOUNTS. THERE IS A PLETHORA OF LIGHTNING ACROSS FLORIDA.
THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN WAS PRETTY GOOD (EXCEPT FOR
THE CAN RGEM) WITH A NOD TO THE ECMWF.

GOING ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE MODELS ARE STILL LAGGING THE
REMAINING WARMTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS 925MB 00Z SOUNDINGS
ARE 0 TO 1C WARMER AND 850MB SOUNDINGS ARE 1 TO 2C WARMER.  AT
700MB, THERE WAS ALSO A 0 TO 1C COLD BIAS UPWIND WITH THE GSO
ERROR AT 2C. OF THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS, THE NAM HAS THE MORE
PREVALENT COLD BIAS. CONVERSELY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST
THERE IS A 0 TO 1C WARM BIAS THAT SHOWS UP THE STRONGEST AT 850MB.
AT 500MB, THE RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST IS HANDLED WELL, THE
PREDICTED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS ABOUT 10M TOO LOW, THE
DAKOTA KICKER IS A CLEAR GFS VICTORY, WHILE ALL THE MODELS ARE
PRETTY GOOD WITH THE LA TROF, MAYBE A TAD TOO FAST.

THE GENERAL WARMING TREND THAT CONTINUED WITH THE 18Z MODEL RUN
(PHL 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALID 18Z WED HAS GONE FROM 546 TO 552
DM ON THE GFS AND FROM 541 TO 548 DM ON THE NAM SINCE YESTERDAY)
SUITE CASTS UNCERTAINTY TO THE SNOW EXTENT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THIS EVENT. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN WARMING AOB 925MB, THE BIGGEST
PUSH HAS BEEN AT AROUND 700MB CREATING MORE OF A SLEET AND LESS OF
A SNOW PROFILE. THIS HAS WAFFLED BACK AND FORTH AND WE ARE WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING SLEET. BUT AS A PROXY, WE
LOWERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE I295/95 CORRIDOR WITH THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE.

THE 00Z NAM HAS REVERSED THIS TREND AND IS COLDER THAN ITS 18Z
RUN, ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN THE FULL SOUNDING 12Z VERSION. ITS
INITIALIZATION AND CORRECTION OF PREVIOUS COLD BIAS ERRORS LOOKED
GOOD. THERE REMAINS NO DENYING OF THE DRY AIR IN THE SOUNDINGS AND
WHILE DYNAMIC COOLING GETS MOST OF THE GOOD PRESS ITS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING THAT IS MUCH MORE CLUTCH IN GETTING IT TO
SNOW, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FROM THE FALL LINE NORTHWEST AND
ANY LOCALE WHERE ELEVATION CAN ASSIST.

TONIGHT...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE
FLORIDA LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN
FRINGE REACHING KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER
MARGINAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING
NORTHWARD IN OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH IMPACT IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT PRIMARILY VFR (HIGH LEVEL AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS),
POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS MORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY, KABE AND KRDG IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KPHL/I95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR LATE MORNING
AS SNOW STARTS TO MIX IN AND PROBABLY BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS POSSIBLE. WE ADDED THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AS A PTYPE. MVFR IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 30
KNOTS. KMIV AND KACY AS WELL AS SHORE POINT AIRPORTS, IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREDOMINATELY MODERATE RAIN. SOME SNOW MIGHT MIX
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 12 TO 18
KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS ALSO CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 260226
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
00Z SFC ANALYSIS VS MODEL 6 TO 12HR PROJECTIONS FAVORS EITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF. ODD PART WAS THE ECMWF CONVECTIVE QPF LOCATIONS
WAS TOO SOUTH IN FL. OTHER MODELS ARE BETTER WITH LOCATION, NONE ARE
GOOD WITH AMOUNTS. THERE IS A PLETHORA OF LIGHTNING ACROSS FLORIDA.
THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN WAS PRETTY GOOD (EXCEPT FOR
THE CAN RGEM) WITH A NOD TO THE ECMWF.

GOING ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE MODELS ARE STILL LAGGING THE
REMAINING WARMTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS 925MB 00Z SOUNDINGS
ARE 0 TO 1C WARMER AND 850MB SOUNDINGS ARE 1 TO 2C WARMER.  AT
700MB, THERE WAS ALSO A 0 TO 1C COLD BIAS UPWIND WITH THE GSO
ERROR AT 2C. OF THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS, THE NAM HAS THE MORE
PREVALENT COLD BIAS. CONVERSELY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST
THERE IS A 0 TO 1C WARM BIAS THAT SHOWS UP THE STRONGEST AT 850MB.
AT 500MB, THE RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST IS HANDLED WELL, THE
PREDICTED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS ABOUT 10M TOO LOW, THE
DAKOTA KICKER IS A CLEAR GFS VICTORY, WHILE ALL THE MODELS ARE
PRETTY GOOD WITH THE LA TROF, MAYBE A TAD TOO FAST.

THE GENERAL WARMING TREND THAT CONTINUED WITH THE 18Z MODEL RUN
(PHL 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALID 18Z WED HAS GONE FROM 546 TO 552
DM ON THE GFS AND FROM 541 TO 548 DM ON THE NAM SINCE YESTERDAY)
SUITE CASTS UNCERTAINTY TO THE SNOW EXTENT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THIS EVENT. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN WARMING AOB 925MB, THE BIGGEST
PUSH HAS BEEN AT AROUND 700MB CREATING MORE OF A SLEET AND LESS OF
A SNOW PROFILE. THIS HAS WAFFLED BACK AND FORTH AND WE ARE WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING SLEET. BUT AS A PROXY, WE
LOWERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE I295/95 CORRIDOR WITH THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE.

THE 00Z NAM HAS REVERSED THIS TREND AND IS COLDER THAN ITS 18Z
RUN, ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN THE FULL SOUNDING 12Z VERSION. ITS
INITIALIZATION AND CORRECTION OF PREVIOUS COLD BIAS ERRORS LOOKED
GOOD. THERE REMAINS NO DENYING OF THE DRY AIR IN THE SOUNDINGS AND
WHILE DYNAMIC COOLING GETS MOST OF THE GOOD PRESS ITS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING THAT IS MUCH MORE CLUTCH IN GETTING IT TO
SNOW, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FROM THE FALL LINE NORTHWEST AND
ANY LOCALE WHERE ELEVATION CAN ASSIST.

TONIGHT...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE
FLORIDA LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN
FRINGE REACHING KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER
MARGINAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING
NORTHWARD IN OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH IMPACT IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT PRIMARILY VFR (HIGH LEVEL AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS),
POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS MORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY, KABE AND KRDG IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KPHL/I95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR LATE MORNING
AS SNOW STARTS TO MIX IN AND PROBABLY BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS POSSIBLE. WE ADDED THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AS A PTYPE. MVFR IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 30
KNOTS. KMIV AND KACY AS WELL AS SHORE POINT AIRPORTS, IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREDOMINATELY MODERATE RAIN. SOME SNOW MIGHT MIX
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 12 TO 18
KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS ALSO CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 252340
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. USED LATEST RAP RUNS TO MAKE
SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES HAVE THINNED FAR
NORTHWEST, TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY. BOTH THE 18Z GFS AND WRF-
NMMB HAVE CONTINUED THE WARMER TREND. WRF-NMMB IS NOW HALF SNOW AT
PHL AND IT WAS ALL SNOW WITH ITS 12Z RUN WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY
RAIN AT PHL EXCEPT FOR ONE DYNAMICALLY COOLED 3 HR PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THAT WARMTH HAS WAFTED AROUND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR AND SLEET IS
SHOWING UP AS A PTYPE. GOING TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
925MB/850MB FORECASTS VERIFY OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS, SO ONLY A
SLIGHT SHAVING OF SNOW TOTALS WAS DONE SOUTHEAST OF I95.


TONIGHT...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE
FLORIDA LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN
FRINGE REACHING KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER
MARGINAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING
NORTHWARD IN OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH IMPACT IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT PRIMARILY VFR (HIGH LEVEL AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS),
POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS MORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY, KABE AND KRDG IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KPHL/I95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR LATE MORNING
AS SNOW STARTS TO MIX IN AND PROBABLY BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS POSSIBLE. WE ADDED THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AS A PTYPE. MVFR IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 30
KNOTS. KMIV AND KACY AS WELL AS SHORE POINT AIRPORTS, IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREDOMINATELY MODERATE RAIN. SOME SNOW MIGHT MIX
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 12 TO 18
KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS ALSO CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 252059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...TEMPORARY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN E PA SOON SEALS
UP WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE FLORIDA
LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN DEVELOPS RAPIDLY
FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN FRINGE REACHING
KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER MARGINAL WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING NORTHWARD IN OUR
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE WHERE A SHORT PERIOD OF ONE QUARTER MILE HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST. EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...TEMPORARY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN E PA SOON SEALS
UP WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE FLORIDA
LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN DEVELOPS RAPIDLY
FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN FRINGE REACHING
KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER MARGINAL WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING NORTHWARD IN OUR
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE WHERE A SHORT PERIOD OF ONE QUARTER MILE HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST. EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...TEMPORARY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN E PA SOON SEALS
UP WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE FLORIDA
LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN DEVELOPS RAPIDLY
FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN FRINGE REACHING
KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER MARGINAL WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING NORTHWARD IN OUR
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE WHERE A SHORT PERIOD OF ONE QUARTER MILE HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST. EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...TEMPORARY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN E PA SOON SEALS
UP WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE FLORIDA
LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN DEVELOPS RAPIDLY
FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN FRINGE REACHING
KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER MARGINAL WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING NORTHWARD IN OUR
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE WHERE A SHORT PERIOD OF ONE QUARTER MILE HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST. EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252001
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
301 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TODAY, BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST TONIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WARNING AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
APPS. CIRRUS GENERATED BY THE RRQ OF 250 MB JET AXISED NE-SW TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH 210KT SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.
NORTHERN FRINGE MAY REACH I80 AT 12Z AS START AS SNOW THERE AT
SUNRISE (WALL OF RH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA BUT 12Z/25 NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHORTENING 500 MB WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND
ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT.
IF A GRAVITY WAVE WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE
SURE HOW IT MODULATES THE PCPN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE
CORRECT ME.

SO...THE BASICS: AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 190 M HFC MOVING NEWD
COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR
PROGRESSIVELY SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z/27 (WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND
10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...A PERIOD OF CIGS 4000-5000 FT IS DEVELOPING
ENEWD FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 95 EASTWARD (SEE NAM 900-800MB LAYER RH)
AND WILL CLEAR AWAY BY 21Z. OTRW CIRRUS CIGS THIS AFTN MAY BRIEFLY
THIN A BIT THIS EVENING. WNW WIND WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT FOR A TIME
TODAY.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE AND EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WE`LL RE-REVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/25 NAM CHANGES BY 15Z BUT THE 12Z/25 GFS THERMAL
PROFILES DO NOT! NO CONFIDENT ANSWER AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK....
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BELOW CRITERIA.  QUIET ON THE DE BAY WATERS TODAY.

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL NOT
KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 252001
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
301 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TODAY, BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST TONIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WARNING AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
APPS. CIRRUS GENERATED BY THE RRQ OF 250 MB JET AXISED NE-SW TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH 210KT SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.
NORTHERN FRINGE MAY REACH I80 AT 12Z AS START AS SNOW THERE AT
SUNRISE (WALL OF RH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA BUT 12Z/25 NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHORTENING 500 MB WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND
ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT.
IF A GRAVITY WAVE WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE
SURE HOW IT MODULATES THE PCPN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE
CORRECT ME.

SO...THE BASICS: AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 190 M HFC MOVING NEWD
COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR
PROGRESSIVELY SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z/27 (WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND
10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...A PERIOD OF CIGS 4000-5000 FT IS DEVELOPING
ENEWD FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 95 EASTWARD (SEE NAM 900-800MB LAYER RH)
AND WILL CLEAR AWAY BY 21Z. OTRW CIRRUS CIGS THIS AFTN MAY BRIEFLY
THIN A BIT THIS EVENING. WNW WIND WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT FOR A TIME
TODAY.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE AND EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WE`LL RE-REVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/25 NAM CHANGES BY 15Z BUT THE 12Z/25 GFS THERMAL
PROFILES DO NOT! NO CONFIDENT ANSWER AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK....
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BELOW CRITERIA.  QUIET ON THE DE BAY WATERS TODAY.

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL NOT
KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 251607
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION LATE
TODAY. THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST
OF CAPE COD EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WARNING AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
APPS. CIRRUS GENERATED BY THE RRQ OF 250 MB JET AXISED NE-SW TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH 210KT SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.
NORTHERN FRINGE MAY REACH I80 AT 12Z AS START AS SNOW THERE AT
SUNRISE (WALL OF RH).

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE AND SOON STERLING JOINS US.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE SINCE
FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA BUT 12Z/25 NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHORTENING 500 MB WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND
ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT.
IF A GRAVITY WAVE WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE
SURE HOW IT MODULATES THE PCPN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE
CORRECT ME.

SO...THE BASICS: AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 190 M HFC MOVING NEWD
COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR
PROGRESSIVELY SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z/27 (WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND
10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...A PERIOD OF CIGS 4000-5000 FT IS DEVELOPING
ENEWD FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 95 EASTWARD (SEE NAM 900-800MB LAYER RH)
AND WILL CLEAR AWAY BY 21Z. OTRW CIRRUS CIGS THIS AFTN MAY BRIEFLY
THIN A BIT THIS EVENING. WNW WIND WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT FOR A TIME
TODAY.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE AND EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WE`LL RE-REVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/25 NAM CHANGES BY 15Z BUT THE 12Z/25 GFS THERMAL
PROFILES DO NOT! NO CONFIDENT ANSWER AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BELOW CRITERIA.  QUIET ON THE DE BAY WATERS TODAY.

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL NOT
KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG 1105
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1105
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1105
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1105
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1105
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251607
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION LATE
TODAY. THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST
OF CAPE COD EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WARNING AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
APPS. CIRRUS GENERATED BY THE RRQ OF 250 MB JET AXISED NE-SW TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH 210KT SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.
NORTHERN FRINGE MAY REACH I80 AT 12Z AS START AS SNOW THERE AT
SUNRISE (WALL OF RH).

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE AND SOON STERLING JOINS US.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE SINCE
FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA BUT 12Z/25 NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHORTENING 500 MB WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND
ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT.
IF A GRAVITY WAVE WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE
SURE HOW IT MODULATES THE PCPN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE
CORRECT ME.

SO...THE BASICS: AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 190 M HFC MOVING NEWD
COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR
PROGRESSIVELY SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z/27 (WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND
10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...A PERIOD OF CIGS 4000-5000 FT IS DEVELOPING
ENEWD FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 95 EASTWARD (SEE NAM 900-800MB LAYER RH)
AND WILL CLEAR AWAY BY 21Z. OTRW CIRRUS CIGS THIS AFTN MAY BRIEFLY
THIN A BIT THIS EVENING. WNW WIND WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT FOR A TIME
TODAY.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE AND EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WE`LL RE-REVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/25 NAM CHANGES BY 15Z BUT THE 12Z/25 GFS THERMAL
PROFILES DO NOT! NO CONFIDENT ANSWER AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BELOW CRITERIA.  QUIET ON THE DE BAY WATERS TODAY.

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL NOT
KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG 1105
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1105
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1105
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1105
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1105
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...

UPDATED FOR THE WARNING IN WWA SECTION





000
FXUS61 KPHI 251429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...

UPDATED FOR THE WARNING IN WWA SECTION





000
FXUS61 KPHI 251429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...

UPDATED FOR THE WARNING IN WWA SECTION





000
FXUS61 KPHI 251429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...

UPDATED FOR THE WARNING IN WWA SECTION





000
FXUS61 KPHI 251428
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251428
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251428
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251428
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE ARE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE COAST. ONCE IT MOVES OFF
SHORE (BY 7 AM FOR THE NJ COAST, BY 9 OR 10 AM FOR THE DE COAST),
IT SHOULD STALL. WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL STALL WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN DE AND NJ. FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE MENTION ON
LAND AS THERE IS A RATHER ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH NOT THE MOST DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH A FALL COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. SINCE THE FRONT, HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO ARRIVE IN THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THE HIGHS IN
THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE TEMPERATURES AT 12Z, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING THE COASTAL LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND WILL BE OFF SHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT,
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART HOWEVER, THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, GIVEN THE STRAIGHT ON SHORE FLOW, IT SHOULD BE RAIN.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IF...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...THE PRECIPITATION
CAN REACH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THAT CASE, WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW STILL SO FAR AWAY, DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS, AND
THUS DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     WE CONTINUE TO TRACK A STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE BUSY TRAVEL
TIME ON WEDNESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW, WHICH WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL. SRN AND ERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

THE ECMWF WAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYS (NO SURPRISE!). WHILE THE
OTHER MDLS OFFERED VARIOUS SOLNS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS, THE ECMWF ALWAYS HAD A ROBUST SYS AND NEVER WAVERED MUCH
FROM ITS TRACK. HOWEVER, IT HAS ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN WARMER AS
WELL, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

WITH THE MRNG PKG, ALL HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE UNCHANGED.
THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE EXTREME
NRN NJ AND THE POCONOS. THE FURTHER S ONE GETS IN THE WATCH,
CONFIDENCE FALLS QUICKLY, BUT WILL WAIT OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE
MAKING OTHER CHANGES TO HEADLINES. ULTIMATELY, SOME OF THE WATCH
WILL PROBABLY BECOME WARNINGS, SOME MAY BECOME ADVISORIES AND SOME
MAY BE DROPPED.

ALSO, WHEN PRECIP BEGINS ON WED, IT WILL LIKELY BE RAIN VIRTUALLY
EVERYWHERE AND WILL MIX AND CHANGE FROM NW TO SE, WHICH OF COURSE
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPS. FURTHERMORE, LTST GUID INDICATES
THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE ENDING DURG WED EVE. THE COMBINATION OF
ALL OF THESE FACTORS CAME UP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS THIS
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM MOVES OUT WED NIGHT AND AND A DRY FCST IS
EXPECTED BY THE TIME EVERYONE SITS DOWN FOR TURKEY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FOR FRI THRU EARLY
SUN WHICH WILL YIELD CONTINUED DRY WX AND A WARMING TREND, AS THE
HIGH MOVES EWD BY SUN AND SWLY FLOW RETURNS.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK....
WED AND WED EVENING... A VERY BUSY TRAVEL DAY, AND UNFORTUNATELY A
TIME WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL STORM. THIS STORM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH CIGS BUT SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT SEE SNOW OR
HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH TEMPS
ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME POINT
WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP WILL
BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AS
WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
WED...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BU OFFSHORE.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND
WIND WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED.

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE ARE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE COAST. ONCE IT MOVES OFF
SHORE (BY 7 AM FOR THE NJ COAST, BY 9 OR 10 AM FOR THE DE COAST),
IT SHOULD STALL. WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL STALL WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN DE AND NJ. FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE MENTION ON
LAND AS THERE IS A RATHER ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH NOT THE MOST DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH A FALL COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. SINCE THE FRONT, HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO ARRIVE IN THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THE HIGHS IN
THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE TEMPERATURES AT 12Z, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING THE COASTAL LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND WILL BE OFF SHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT,
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART HOWEVER, THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, GIVEN THE STRAIGHT ON SHORE FLOW, IT SHOULD BE RAIN.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IF...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...THE PRECIPITATION
CAN REACH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THAT CASE, WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW STILL SO FAR AWAY, DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS, AND
THUS DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     WE CONTINUE TO TRACK A STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE BUSY TRAVEL
TIME ON WEDNESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW, WHICH WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL. SRN AND ERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

THE ECMWF WAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYS (NO SURPRISE!). WHILE THE
OTHER MDLS OFFERED VARIOUS SOLNS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS, THE ECMWF ALWAYS HAD A ROBUST SYS AND NEVER WAVERED MUCH
FROM ITS TRACK. HOWEVER, IT HAS ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN WARMER AS
WELL, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

WITH THE MRNG PKG, ALL HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE UNCHANGED.
THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE EXTREME
NRN NJ AND THE POCONOS. THE FURTHER S ONE GETS IN THE WATCH,
CONFIDENCE FALLS QUICKLY, BUT WILL WAIT OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE
MAKING OTHER CHANGES TO HEADLINES. ULTIMATELY, SOME OF THE WATCH
WILL PROBABLY BECOME WARNINGS, SOME MAY BECOME ADVISORIES AND SOME
MAY BE DROPPED.

ALSO, WHEN PRECIP BEGINS ON WED, IT WILL LIKELY BE RAIN VIRTUALLY
EVERYWHERE AND WILL MIX AND CHANGE FROM NW TO SE, WHICH OF COURSE
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPS. FURTHERMORE, LTST GUID INDICATES
THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE ENDING DURG WED EVE. THE COMBINATION OF
ALL OF THESE FACTORS CAME UP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS THIS
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM MOVES OUT WED NIGHT AND AND A DRY FCST IS
EXPECTED BY THE TIME EVERYONE SITS DOWN FOR TURKEY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FOR FRI THRU EARLY
SUN WHICH WILL YIELD CONTINUED DRY WX AND A WARMING TREND, AS THE
HIGH MOVES EWD BY SUN AND SWLY FLOW RETURNS.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK....
WED AND WED EVENING... A VERY BUSY TRAVEL DAY, AND UNFORTUNATELY A
TIME WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL STORM. THIS STORM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH CIGS BUT SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT SEE SNOW OR
HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH TEMPS
ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME POINT
WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP WILL
BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AS
WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
WED...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BU OFFSHORE.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND
WIND WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED.

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE ARE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE COAST. ONCE IT MOVES OFF
SHORE, IT SHOULD STALL. WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL STALL WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN DE AND NJ.
FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE MENTION
ON LAND AS THERE IS A RATHER ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH NOT THE MOST DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH A FALL COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
EXPECTING THE COASTAL LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND WILL BE OFF SHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT,
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART HOWEVER, THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, GIVEN THE STRAIGHT ON SHORE FLOW, IT SHOULD BE RAIN.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IF...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...THE PRECIPITATION
CAN REACH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THAT CASE, WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW STILL SO FAR AWAY, DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS, AND
THUS DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...WE CONTINUE TO TRACK A STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE BUSY TRAVEL
TIME ON WEDNESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW, WHICH WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL. SRN AND ERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

THE ECMWF WAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYS (NO SURPRISE!). WHILE THE
OTHER MDLS OFFERED VARIOUS SOLNS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS, THE ECMWF ALWAYS HAD A ROBUST SYS AND NEVER WAVERED MUCH
FROM ITS TRACK. HOWEVER, IT HAS ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN WARMER AS
WELL, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

WITH THE MRNG PKG, ALL HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE UNCHANGED.
THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE EXTREME
NRN NJ AND THE POCONOS. THE FURTHER S ONE GETS IN THE WATCH,
CONFIDENCE FALLS QUICKLY, BUT WILL WAIT OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE
MAKING OTHER CHANGES TO HEADLINES. ULTIMATELY, SOME OF THE WATCH
WILL PROBABLY BECOME WARNINGS, SOME MAY BECOME ADVISORIES AND SOME
MAY BE DROPPED.

ALSO, WHEN PRECIP BEGINS ON WED, IT WILL LIKELY BE RAIN VIRTUALLY
EVERYWHERE AND WILL MIX AND CHANGE FROM NW TO SE, WHICH OF COURSE
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPS. FURTHERMORE, LTST GUID INDICATES
THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE ENDING DURG WED EVE. THE COMBINATION OF
ALL OF THESE FACTORS CAME UP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS THIS
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM MOVES OUT WED NIGHT AND AND A DRY FCST IS
EXPECTED BY THE TIME EVERYONE SITS DOWN FOR TURKEY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FOR FRI THRU EARLY
SUN WHICH WILL YIELD CONTINUED DRY WX AND A WARMING TREND, AS THE
HIGH MOVES EWD BY SUN AND SWLY FLOW RETURNS.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.




&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL. THE
ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS KMIV AND POSSIBLY KACY, WHICH COULD SEE
TRANSIENT CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT AGL THROUGH 12Z. WESTERLY
WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z, AND
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THE INLAND TAF SITES WILL SEE ANY BEFORE 12Z.
IF RA DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK....
WED AND WED EVENING... A VERY BUSY TRAVEL DAY, AND UNFORTUNATELY A
TIME WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL STORM. THIS STORM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH CIGS BUT SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT SEE SNOW OR
HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH TEMPS
ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME POINT
WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP WILL
BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AS
WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
WED...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BU OFFSHORE.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND
WIND WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED.

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE ARE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE COAST. ONCE IT MOVES OFF
SHORE, IT SHOULD STALL. WHERE EXACTLY IT WILL STALL WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN DE AND NJ.
FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE MENTION
ON LAND AS THERE IS A RATHER ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH NOT THE MOST DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH A FALL COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
EXPECTING THE COASTAL LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND WILL BE OFF SHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT,
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART HOWEVER, THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, GIVEN THE STRAIGHT ON SHORE FLOW, IT SHOULD BE RAIN.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IF...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...THE PRECIPITATION
CAN REACH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THAT CASE, WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW STILL SO FAR AWAY, DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS, AND
THUS DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...WE CONTINUE TO TRACK A STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE BUSY TRAVEL
TIME ON WEDNESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW, WHICH WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL. SRN AND ERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

THE ECMWF WAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYS (NO SURPRISE!). WHILE THE
OTHER MDLS OFFERED VARIOUS SOLNS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS, THE ECMWF ALWAYS HAD A ROBUST SYS AND NEVER WAVERED MUCH
FROM ITS TRACK. HOWEVER, IT HAS ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN WARMER AS
WELL, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

WITH THE MRNG PKG, ALL HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE UNCHANGED.
THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE EXTREME
NRN NJ AND THE POCONOS. THE FURTHER S ONE GETS IN THE WATCH,
CONFIDENCE FALLS QUICKLY, BUT WILL WAIT OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE
MAKING OTHER CHANGES TO HEADLINES. ULTIMATELY, SOME OF THE WATCH
WILL PROBABLY BECOME WARNINGS, SOME MAY BECOME ADVISORIES AND SOME
MAY BE DROPPED.

ALSO, WHEN PRECIP BEGINS ON WED, IT WILL LIKELY BE RAIN VIRTUALLY
EVERYWHERE AND WILL MIX AND CHANGE FROM NW TO SE, WHICH OF COURSE
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPS. FURTHERMORE, LTST GUID INDICATES
THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE ENDING DURG WED EVE. THE COMBINATION OF
ALL OF THESE FACTORS CAME UP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS THIS
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM MOVES OUT WED NIGHT AND AND A DRY FCST IS
EXPECTED BY THE TIME EVERYONE SITS DOWN FOR TURKEY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FOR FRI THRU EARLY
SUN WHICH WILL YIELD CONTINUED DRY WX AND A WARMING TREND, AS THE
HIGH MOVES EWD BY SUN AND SWLY FLOW RETURNS.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.




&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL. THE
ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS KMIV AND POSSIBLY KACY, WHICH COULD SEE
TRANSIENT CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT AGL THROUGH 12Z. WESTERLY
WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z, AND
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THE INLAND TAF SITES WILL SEE ANY BEFORE 12Z.
IF RA DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK....
WED AND WED EVENING... A VERY BUSY TRAVEL DAY, AND UNFORTUNATELY A
TIME WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL STORM. THIS STORM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH CIGS BUT SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT SEE SNOW OR
HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH TEMPS
ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME POINT
WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP WILL
BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AS
WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
WED...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BU OFFSHORE.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND
WIND WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED.

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250534
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION NOW. CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE SITE IN BUCKS COUNTY, NO
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. NEAR THE SHORE, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
FOG. OBS SHOW THAT AT THE SHORE, WINDS HAVE A LIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE IN A FEW HOURS ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE GRIDS AS WELL AS A
NOW CAST FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. A COLD FRONT
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION NOW, AND SHOULD BE OFF SHORE
BY 09Z. AT ACY, THE WINDS MAY DECOUPLE ENOUGH FOR BRIEF BR TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND COULD GUST UP
TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BAY FLAG WILL
END TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250534
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION NOW. CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE SITE IN BUCKS COUNTY, NO
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. NEAR THE SHORE, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
FOG. OBS SHOW THAT AT THE SHORE, WINDS HAVE A LIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE IN A FEW HOURS ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE GRIDS AS WELL AS A
NOW CAST FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. A COLD FRONT
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION NOW, AND SHOULD BE OFF SHORE
BY 09Z. AT ACY, THE WINDS MAY DECOUPLE ENOUGH FOR BRIEF BR TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND COULD GUST UP
TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BAY FLAG WILL
END TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250534
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION NOW. CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE SITE IN BUCKS COUNTY, NO
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. NEAR THE SHORE, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
FOG. OBS SHOW THAT AT THE SHORE, WINDS HAVE A LIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE IN A FEW HOURS ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE GRIDS AS WELL AS A
NOW CAST FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. A COLD FRONT
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION NOW, AND SHOULD BE OFF SHORE
BY 09Z. AT ACY, THE WINDS MAY DECOUPLE ENOUGH FOR BRIEF BR TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND COULD GUST UP
TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BAY FLAG WILL
END TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250534
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION NOW. CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE SITE IN BUCKS COUNTY, NO
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. NEAR THE SHORE, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
FOG. OBS SHOW THAT AT THE SHORE, WINDS HAVE A LIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE IN A FEW HOURS ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE GRIDS AS WELL AS A
NOW CAST FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. A COLD FRONT
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION NOW, AND SHOULD BE OFF SHORE
BY 09Z. AT ACY, THE WINDS MAY DECOUPLE ENOUGH FOR BRIEF BR TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND COULD GUST UP
TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BAY FLAG WILL
END TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS IN AN
HOUR OR SO...THEN TAKE A FEW HOURS TO CROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PCPN IS OCCURING WITH THE
FRONT. A SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED
NORTHWARD OVER THE DELMARVA AND INTO SRN NJ. I HAVE UPPED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS IN THESE AREAS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WINDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE SRN NJ TAF SITES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BAY FLAG WILL
END TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON/PO
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS IN AN
HOUR OR SO...THEN TAKE A FEW HOURS TO CROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PCPN IS OCCURING WITH THE
FRONT. A SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED
NORTHWARD OVER THE DELMARVA AND INTO SRN NJ. I HAVE UPPED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS IN THESE AREAS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WINDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE SRN NJ TAF SITES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BAY FLAG WILL
END TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON/PO
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS IN AN
HOUR OR SO...THEN TAKE A FEW HOURS TO CROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PCPN IS OCCURING WITH THE
FRONT. A SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED
NORTHWARD OVER THE DELMARVA AND INTO SRN NJ. I HAVE UPPED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS IN THESE AREAS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WINDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE SRN NJ TAF SITES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BAY FLAG WILL
END TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON/PO
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS IN AN
HOUR OR SO...THEN TAKE A FEW HOURS TO CROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PCPN IS OCCURING WITH THE
FRONT. A SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED
NORTHWARD OVER THE DELMARVA AND INTO SRN NJ. I HAVE UPPED THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS IN THESE AREAS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WINDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE SRN NJ TAF SITES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE BAY FLAG WILL
END TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON/PO
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 242117
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY REMAINING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN EVERYWHERE AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RAIN REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST AND DRYING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. THE DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH THE MAIN EFFECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES AND WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ALL TAFS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR, AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS TOWARD THE COASTAL
TAFS, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD
REMAIN VFR INTO TUESDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL CONVERT TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WITH THE BAY ENDING TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE
OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK 416
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON 416
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON 416
CLIMATE...416







000
FXUS61 KPHI 242117
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY REMAINING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN EVERYWHERE AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RAIN REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST AND DRYING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. THE DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH THE MAIN EFFECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES AND WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ALL TAFS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR, AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS TOWARD THE COASTAL
TAFS, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD
REMAIN VFR INTO TUESDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL CONVERT TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WITH THE BAY ENDING TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE
OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK 416
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON 416
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON 416
CLIMATE...416






000
FXUS61 KPHI 242117
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY REMAINING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN EVERYWHERE AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RAIN REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST AND DRYING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. THE DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH THE MAIN EFFECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES AND WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING
OCCURS IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT
TO THIS SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.


TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 (HIGHER TERRAIN). NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED
BEFORE 7 AM. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO A
ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHSN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA... NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING TO 900
HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ALL TAFS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR, AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS TOWARD THE COASTAL
TAFS, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD
REMAIN VFR INTO TUESDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

A PLOWABLE...POSSIBLY SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON ANY
UNTREATED RUNWAYS-PAVEMENTS AT KRDG AND KABE WEDNESDAY.


THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL CONVERT TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WITH THE BAY ENDING TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE
OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS TURN NE BY DAWN.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS....STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF DELAWARE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK 416
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON 416
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON 416
CLIMATE...416







000
FXUS61 KPHI 242038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY REMAINING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN EVERYWHERE AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RAIN REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST AND DRYING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. THE DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH THE MAIN EFFECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES AND WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ. WATCHES
 WILL BE EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF THE I-95 INTERSTATE CORRIDOR**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 210M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING OCCURS
IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM.
ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL
WEST OF I-95. NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING
N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
RATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10
INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ).

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT TIMES OR
POSSIBLY REMAINING AS SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF IS
GREATER HERE...ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO
1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND
OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT ONLY
WHERE 6 INCHES OCCURS. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT 0.5 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS. FINE LINE ON WHERE IT WILL SNOW BUT TOO MUCH INFO ATTM TO
WARRANT A WATCH PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW
RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THERE
IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM
I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE THE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO
A ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHRA CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA...
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING
TO 900 HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ALL TAFS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR, AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS TOWARD THE COASTAL
TAFS, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD
REMAIN VFR INTO TUESDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL CONVERT TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WITH THE BAY ENDING TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE
OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 242038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT AND AFFECT THE REGION AS A STRONG NOR EASTER ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATE UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY REMAINING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN EVERYWHERE AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RAIN REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST AND DRYING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. THE DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH THE MAIN EFFECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES AND WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ONE LAST FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPCOMING
STORM IN THE LONG TERM. OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925
MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT CLOSER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ. WATCHES
 WILL BE EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF THE I-95 INTERSTATE CORRIDOR**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 210M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING OCCURS
IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM.
ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL
WEST OF I-95. NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING
N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
RATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10
INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ).

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT TIMES OR
POSSIBLY REMAINING AS SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF IS
GREATER HERE...ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO
1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND
OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT ONLY
WHERE 6 INCHES OCCURS. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT 0.5 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS. FINE LINE ON WHERE IT WILL SNOW BUT TOO MUCH INFO ATTM TO
WARRANT A WATCH PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW
RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THERE
IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM
I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

* THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER W/UNSEASONABLY
  COOL TEMPERATURES.
* A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
  W/TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE THE HOW THE MODELS
RESOLVE A MID-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE TRANSITION FROM A MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO
A ZONAL FLOW...AS THE NAO BECOMES POSITIVE AND THE PNA BECOMES
NEGATIVE. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL...THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE W/SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHERE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
UNCERTAINTY W/THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES...ESP
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ALOFT WITH X-SECS INDICATING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...SO EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TRAJECTORY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY -SHRA CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR NW CWA...
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. IT WILL BE BRISK WITH MIXING
TO 900 HPA SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL THE RETURN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW W/SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE INVOF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE LEADING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATTM...
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DRY DAY.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF QPF IN THE LONG TERM
BUT IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THERE IS NO GMEX CONNECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ALL TAFS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR, AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOISTURE MAY
GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEADING TO SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS TOWARD THE COASTAL
TAFS, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD
REMAIN VFR INTO TUESDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK....

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL CONVERT TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WITH THE BAY ENDING TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE
OCEAN FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
233 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, LEADING
TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 70S, AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS DAYTIME
MIXING OCCURS. AS WE MIX THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BE AT LEAST 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END AS SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH, SO A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER, LATEST GUID
INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.
HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL
CLEARING TREND BY MRNG.  IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRAFT WITH ADJUSTMENTS AT 330 PM WHENEVER THE HIGH RES ECMWF ARRIVES.

**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ. WATCHES
 WILL BE EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF THE I-95 INTERSTATE CORRIDOR**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 210M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING OCCURS
IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

LANCE HAS D4-8 AND HIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE APPENDED
BY 330 PM AS THIS DISCUSSION.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM.
ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL
WEST OF I-95. NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING
N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
RATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10
INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ).

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT TIMES OR
POSSIBLY REMAINING AS SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF IS
GREATER HERE...ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO
1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND
OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT ONLY
WHERE 6 INCHES OCCURS. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT 0.5 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS. FINE LINE ON WHERE IT WILL SNOW BUT TOO MUCH INFO ATTM TO
WARRANT A WATCH PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION.


COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW
RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THERE
IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM
I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

ALL TAF SITES HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ACY WHERE
IFR CIGS REMAIN, THROUGH AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR ACY AS WELL. AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS, WE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BEGIN BREAKING AND LIFTING, WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS
MAINLY FOR MIV/ACY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE DELAWARE
BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN AS DAYTIME PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER WIND TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.

ONCE THE GALE WARNING ENDS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AS SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 232
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 232
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 232
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 232
CLIMATE...232







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
233 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, LEADING
TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 70S, AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS DAYTIME
MIXING OCCURS. AS WE MIX THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BE AT LEAST 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END AS SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH, SO A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER, LATEST GUID
INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.
HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL
CLEARING TREND BY MRNG.  IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRAFT WITH ADJUSTMENTS AT 330 PM WHENEVER THE HIGH RES ECMWF ARRIVES.

**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ. WATCHES
 WILL BE EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF THE I-95 INTERSTATE CORRIDOR**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 210M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING OCCURS
IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

LANCE HAS D4-8 AND HIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE APPENDED
BY 330 PM AS THIS DISCUSSION.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM.
ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL
WEST OF I-95. NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING
N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
RATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10
INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ).

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT TIMES OR
POSSIBLY REMAINING AS SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF IS
GREATER HERE...ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO
1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND
OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT ONLY
WHERE 6 INCHES OCCURS. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT 0.5 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS. FINE LINE ON WHERE IT WILL SNOW BUT TOO MUCH INFO ATTM TO
WARRANT A WATCH PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION.


COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW
RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THERE
IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM
I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

ALL TAF SITES HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ACY WHERE
IFR CIGS REMAIN, THROUGH AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR ACY AS WELL. AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS, WE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BEGIN BREAKING AND LIFTING, WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS
MAINLY FOR MIV/ACY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE DELAWARE
BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN AS DAYTIME PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER WIND TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.

ONCE THE GALE WARNING ENDS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AS SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 232
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 232
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 232
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 232
CLIMATE...232






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