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000
FXUS61 KPHI 190103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. HRRR/COSPA HAVE THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS EXITING OUR LOWER DELMARVA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF I95. WITH SHORT WAVE DEPARTING
AND FRONT NEARING, THIS SHOULD BE THE END FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEARER, BUT THERE IS STILL ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY/NORTHWESTERN PA TO
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECOUPLING. LATEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
SUGGESTING THE DECOUPLING MIGHT HOLD FOR A WHILE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER BECOME TOO STRONG.
SO WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT, BUT LEVELED THEM OFF (EXCEPT FOR FAR
NW) TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY FOR NJ/DE
FIRST BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD
AND THEN FOR THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MIGHT BECOME HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. HRRR/COSPA HAVE THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS EXITING OUR LOWER DELMARVA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF I95. WITH SHORT WAVE DEPARTING
AND FRONT NEARING, THIS SHOULD BE THE END FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEARER, BUT THERE IS STILL ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY/NORTHWESTERN PA TO
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECOUPLING. LATEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
SUGGESTING THE DECOUPLING MIGHT HOLD FOR A WHILE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER BECOME TOO STRONG.
SO WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT, BUT LEVELED THEM OFF (EXCEPT FOR FAR
NW) TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY FOR NJ/DE
FIRST BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD
AND THEN FOR THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MIGHT BECOME HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. HRRR/COSPA HAVE THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS EXITING OUR LOWER DELMARVA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF I95. WITH SHORT WAVE DEPARTING
AND FRONT NEARING, THIS SHOULD BE THE END FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEARER, BUT THERE IS STILL ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY/NORTHWESTERN PA TO
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECOUPLING. LATEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
SUGGESTING THE DECOUPLING MIGHT HOLD FOR A WHILE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER BECOME TOO STRONG.
SO WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT, BUT LEVELED THEM OFF (EXCEPT FOR FAR
NW) TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY FOR NJ/DE
FIRST BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD
AND THEN FOR THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MIGHT BECOME HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. HRRR/COSPA HAVE THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS EXITING OUR LOWER DELMARVA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF I95. WITH SHORT WAVE DEPARTING
AND FRONT NEARING, THIS SHOULD BE THE END FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEARER, BUT THERE IS STILL ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY/NORTHWESTERN PA TO
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECOUPLING. LATEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
SUGGESTING THE DECOUPLING MIGHT HOLD FOR A WHILE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER BECOME TOO STRONG.
SO WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT, BUT LEVELED THEM OFF (EXCEPT FOR FAR
NW) TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY FOR NJ/DE
FIRST BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD
AND THEN FOR THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MIGHT BECOME HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 182338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
738 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
GOING IN LOWER DELMARVA AS A DEW POINT POOLING PRECEDING THE FRONT
IS SUPPLYING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO BE LIFTED. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WE SMOOTHED THE CURRENT WITH EXPECTED TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. WITH A GRADIENT INCREASING TOWARD MORNING, SOME OF THE
MINS IN LESS SHELTERED PLACES MAY COME SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN USUAL.

AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR I-95 IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC FRONT AND
DPVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA AND HAS ALSO LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME MIXING
WANES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F
AT MT POCONO (WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT) TO NEAR 60F IN GEORGETOWN,
DE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 182338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
738 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
GOING IN LOWER DELMARVA AS A DEW POINT POOLING PRECEDING THE FRONT
IS SUPPLYING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO BE LIFTED. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WE SMOOTHED THE CURRENT WITH EXPECTED TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. WITH A GRADIENT INCREASING TOWARD MORNING, SOME OF THE
MINS IN LESS SHELTERED PLACES MAY COME SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN USUAL.

AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR I-95 IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC FRONT AND
DPVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA AND HAS ALSO LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME MIXING
WANES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F
AT MT POCONO (WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT) TO NEAR 60F IN GEORGETOWN,
DE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 182215
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE AFFECTING TALBOT COUNTY DURING THIS NEXT HOUR AND LIKELY THAT
WILL BE IT FOR THIS TROF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WE SMOOTHED THE
CURRENT WITH EXPECTED TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR I-95 IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC FRONT AND
DPVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA AND HAS ALSO LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME MIXING
WANES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F
AT MT POCONO (WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT) TO NEAR 60F IN GEORGETOWN,
DE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5 TO
6 KFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, BEFORE
THINNING SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 15 TO 18 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
MIDDAY, MAINLY FROM ABOUT THE PHL METRO AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE-DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 182215
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE AFFECTING TALBOT COUNTY DURING THIS NEXT HOUR AND LIKELY THAT
WILL BE IT FOR THIS TROF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WE SMOOTHED THE
CURRENT WITH EXPECTED TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR I-95 IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC FRONT AND
DPVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA AND HAS ALSO LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME MIXING
WANES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F
AT MT POCONO (WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT) TO NEAR 60F IN GEORGETOWN,
DE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5 TO
6 KFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, BEFORE
THINNING SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 15 TO 18 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
MIDDAY, MAINLY FROM ABOUT THE PHL METRO AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE-DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 182004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR I-95 IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC FRONT AND
DPVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA AND HAS ALSO LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NJ
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME MIXING
WANES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F
AT MT POCONO (WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT) TO NEAR 60F IN GEORGETOWN,
DE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5 TO
6 KFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, BEFORE
THINNING SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 15 TO 18 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
MIDDAY, MAINLY FROM ABOUT THE PHL METRO AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE-DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 182004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR I-95 IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC FRONT AND
DPVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA AND HAS ALSO LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NJ
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME MIXING
WANES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F
AT MT POCONO (WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT) TO NEAR 60F IN GEORGETOWN,
DE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5 TO
6 KFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, BEFORE
THINNING SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 15 TO 18 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
MIDDAY, MAINLY FROM ABOUT THE PHL METRO AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE-DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 182004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR I-95 IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC FRONT AND
DPVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA AND HAS ALSO LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NJ
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME MIXING
WANES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F
AT MT POCONO (WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT) TO NEAR 60F IN GEORGETOWN,
DE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5 TO
6 KFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, BEFORE
THINNING SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 15 TO 18 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
MIDDAY, MAINLY FROM ABOUT THE PHL METRO AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE-DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 182004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR I-95 IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC FRONT AND
DPVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA AND HAS ALSO LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NJ
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME MIXING
WANES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F
AT MT POCONO (WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT) TO NEAR 60F IN GEORGETOWN,
DE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5 TO
6 KFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, BEFORE
THINNING SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 15 TO 18 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
MIDDAY, MAINLY FROM ABOUT THE PHL METRO AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE-DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 181611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE, WE ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, FAR NORTHERN DELAWARE, AND CECIL COUNTY
MARYLAND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES HOLDING TOGETHER AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THESE
AREAS. IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO TWEAKED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, THE MID-ATLANTIC IS LOCATED TOWARD THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY WAS RATHER DIFFUSE ON THE
13Z SFC ANALYSIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z IAD, APG AND OKX SOUNDINGS ALL OBSERVED A SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN 800-700 MB WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS LEAD TO A BAND OF BKN-OVC STRATOCU OVER EASTERN PA, NORTHWEST NJ
AND THE EASTERN MD SO FAR THIS MORNING. TRIED TO TIME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRATOCU IN HOURLY SKY
GRIDS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. LATEST RAP MODEL, WHICH HAD
INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER, HANGS ON TO THE MORNING
CLOUD THE LONGEST INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA AND THE
DELMARVA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID 70S ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COULD BE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY THE FRIDAY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DIVE INTO
THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY
THEN START TO LIFT OUT LATE TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH IS SCHEDULED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WE USED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL
OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR
AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL COMPLICATION IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ACTUALLY VEER
TO MORE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, FOCUSING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE. IT IS HERE WHERE
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH
STRATUS DEVELOPS DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICK THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN UP. FOR NOW, WE INCREASED THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT A
BIT MORE. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY
ALONG THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS OCCURS
AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HEIGHTS RISE
SOME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT THAT MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS OUR CWA
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A SHORT
WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW
EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT DUE TO MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING
AWAY TO THE NORTH. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW THEREFORE WE
CONTINUED WITH NO THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LEAD
SHORT WAVE NEAR THE CAROLINAS MAY ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW ALONG AN
OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND HAVE
NO REAL AFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
SOME MORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS MONDAY.
BASED ON SOME RIDGING ENTERING THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING
TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING
JUST TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. REGARDING POPS, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY START TO LIFT OUT SOME WITH ANY FOCUS GENERALLY TO OUR
NORTH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS. IF THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH ENDS UP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, THEN WE WILL HAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AS OF NOW,
LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE FOR ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR TDA AND TNGT. STRATOCU BETWEEN 5-9 KFT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TDA. NW WINDS UNDER 10 KT TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE N THIS EVE AND NE BY EARLY FRI MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN ONSHORE FLOW. OUR CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR SOME FOG TO START EACH
DAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44065 CAME BACK ON LINE ABOUT 10 PM LAST NIGHT. HOPEFULLY BUOY
44025 WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.

TODAY...LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH
THE EAST COAST TODAY. LATEST OBS SHOW 13-14 SEC WAVE PERIODS THIS
MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS WIT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 4 FT WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT
(GUSTING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY).

TONIGHT...SWELLS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WITH US THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA SHOULD THEN EASE SOME AS THE WINDS
TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. THE SURGE COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME 25-KNOT GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. AS OF NOW THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF IT BUT THEY SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SEAS HOWEVER COULD BE RIGHT NEAR 5 FEET SATURDAY FROM THE EARLIER
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO/KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 181611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE, WE ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, FAR NORTHERN DELAWARE, AND CECIL COUNTY
MARYLAND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES HOLDING TOGETHER AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THESE
AREAS. IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO TWEAKED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, THE MID-ATLANTIC IS LOCATED TOWARD THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY WAS RATHER DIFFUSE ON THE
13Z SFC ANALYSIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z IAD, APG AND OKX SOUNDINGS ALL OBSERVED A SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN 800-700 MB WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS LEAD TO A BAND OF BKN-OVC STRATOCU OVER EASTERN PA, NORTHWEST NJ
AND THE EASTERN MD SO FAR THIS MORNING. TRIED TO TIME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRATOCU IN HOURLY SKY
GRIDS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. LATEST RAP MODEL, WHICH HAD
INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER, HANGS ON TO THE MORNING
CLOUD THE LONGEST INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA AND THE
DELMARVA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID 70S ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COULD BE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY THE FRIDAY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DIVE INTO
THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY
THEN START TO LIFT OUT LATE TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH IS SCHEDULED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WE USED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL
OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR
AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL COMPLICATION IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ACTUALLY VEER
TO MORE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, FOCUSING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE. IT IS HERE WHERE
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH
STRATUS DEVELOPS DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICK THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN UP. FOR NOW, WE INCREASED THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT A
BIT MORE. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY
ALONG THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS OCCURS
AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HEIGHTS RISE
SOME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT THAT MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS OUR CWA
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A SHORT
WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW
EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT DUE TO MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING
AWAY TO THE NORTH. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW THEREFORE WE
CONTINUED WITH NO THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LEAD
SHORT WAVE NEAR THE CAROLINAS MAY ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW ALONG AN
OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND HAVE
NO REAL AFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
SOME MORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS MONDAY.
BASED ON SOME RIDGING ENTERING THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING
TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING
JUST TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. REGARDING POPS, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY START TO LIFT OUT SOME WITH ANY FOCUS GENERALLY TO OUR
NORTH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS. IF THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH ENDS UP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, THEN WE WILL HAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AS OF NOW,
LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE FOR ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR TDA AND TNGT. STRATOCU BETWEEN 5-9 KFT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TDA. NW WINDS UNDER 10 KT TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE N THIS EVE AND NE BY EARLY FRI MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN ONSHORE FLOW. OUR CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR SOME FOG TO START EACH
DAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44065 CAME BACK ON LINE ABOUT 10 PM LAST NIGHT. HOPEFULLY BUOY
44025 WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.

TODAY...LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH
THE EAST COAST TODAY. LATEST OBS SHOW 13-14 SEC WAVE PERIODS THIS
MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS WIT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 4 FT WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT
(GUSTING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY).

TONIGHT...SWELLS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WITH US THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA SHOULD THEN EASE SOME AS THE WINDS
TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. THE SURGE COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME 25-KNOT GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. AS OF NOW THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF IT BUT THEY SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SEAS HOWEVER COULD BE RIGHT NEAR 5 FEET SATURDAY FROM THE EARLIER
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181330
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC IS LOCATED TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF
HUDSON BAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY WAS RATHER DIFFUSE ON THE 13Z SFC
ANALYSIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z IAD, APG AND OKX SOUNDINGS ALL OBSERVED A SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN 800-700 MB WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS LEAD TO A BAND OF BKN-OVC STRATOCU OVER EASTERN PA, NORTHWEST NJ
AND THE EASTERN MD SO FAR THIS MORNING. TRIED TO TIME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRATOCU IN HOURLY SKY
GRIDS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. LATEST RAP MODEL, WHICH HAD
INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER, HANGS ON TO THE MORNING
CLOUD THE LONGEST INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA AND THE
DELMARVA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID 70S ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COULD BE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY THE FRIDAY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DIVE INTO
THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY
THEN START TO LIFT OUT LATE TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH IS SCHEDULED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WE USED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL
OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR
AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL COMPLICATION IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ACTUALLY VEER
TO MORE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, FOCUSING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE. IT IS HERE WHERE
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH
STRATUS DEVELOPS DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICK THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN UP. FOR NOW, WE INCREASED THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT A
BIT MORE. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY
ALONG THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS OCCURS
AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HEIGHTS RISE
SOME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT THAT MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS OUR CWA
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A SHORT
WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW
EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT DUE TO MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING
AWAY TO THE NORTH. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW THEREFORE WE
CONTINUED WITH NO THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LEAD
SHORT WAVE NEAR THE CAROLINAS MAY ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW ALONG AN
OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND HAVE
NO REAL AFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
SOME MORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS MONDAY.
BASED ON SOME RIDGING ENTERING THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING
TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING
JUST TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. REGARDING POPS, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY START TO LIFT OUT SOME WITH ANY FOCUS GENERALLY TO OUR
NORTH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS. IF THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH ENDS UP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, THEN WE WILL HAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AS OF NOW,
LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE FOR ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR TDA AND TNGT. STRATOCU BETWEEN 5-9 KFT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TDA. NW WINDS UNDER 10 KT TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE N THIS EVE AND NE BY EARLY FRI MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN ONSHORE FLOW. OUR CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR SOME FOG TO START EACH
DAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44065 CAME BACK ON LINE ABOUT 10 PM LAST NIGHT. HOPEFULLY BUOY
44025 WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.

TODAY...LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH
THE EAST COAST TODAY. LATEST OBS SHOW 13-14 SEC WAVE PERIODS THIS
MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS WIT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 4 FT WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT
(GUSTING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY).

TONIGHT...SWELLS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WITH US THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA SHOULD THEN EASE SOME AS THE WINDS
TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. THE SURGE COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME 25-KNOT GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. AS OF NOW THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF IT BUT THEY SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SEAS HOWEVER COULD BE RIGHT NEAR 5 FEET SATURDAY FROM THE EARLIER
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO/KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 181330
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC IS LOCATED TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF
HUDSON BAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY WAS RATHER DIFFUSE ON THE 13Z SFC
ANALYSIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z IAD, APG AND OKX SOUNDINGS ALL OBSERVED A SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN 800-700 MB WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS LEAD TO A BAND OF BKN-OVC STRATOCU OVER EASTERN PA, NORTHWEST NJ
AND THE EASTERN MD SO FAR THIS MORNING. TRIED TO TIME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRATOCU IN HOURLY SKY
GRIDS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. LATEST RAP MODEL, WHICH HAD
INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER, HANGS ON TO THE MORNING
CLOUD THE LONGEST INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA AND THE
DELMARVA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID 70S ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COULD BE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY THE FRIDAY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DIVE INTO
THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY
THEN START TO LIFT OUT LATE TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH IS SCHEDULED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WE USED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL
OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR
AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL COMPLICATION IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ACTUALLY VEER
TO MORE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, FOCUSING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE. IT IS HERE WHERE
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH
STRATUS DEVELOPS DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICK THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN UP. FOR NOW, WE INCREASED THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT A
BIT MORE. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY
ALONG THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS OCCURS
AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HEIGHTS RISE
SOME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT THAT MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS OUR CWA
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A SHORT
WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW
EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT DUE TO MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING
AWAY TO THE NORTH. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW THEREFORE WE
CONTINUED WITH NO THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LEAD
SHORT WAVE NEAR THE CAROLINAS MAY ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW ALONG AN
OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND HAVE
NO REAL AFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
SOME MORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS MONDAY.
BASED ON SOME RIDGING ENTERING THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING
TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING
JUST TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. REGARDING POPS, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY START TO LIFT OUT SOME WITH ANY FOCUS GENERALLY TO OUR
NORTH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS. IF THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH ENDS UP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, THEN WE WILL HAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AS OF NOW,
LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE FOR ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR TDA AND TNGT. STRATOCU BETWEEN 5-9 KFT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TDA. NW WINDS UNDER 10 KT TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE N THIS EVE AND NE BY EARLY FRI MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN ONSHORE FLOW. OUR CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR SOME FOG TO START EACH
DAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44065 CAME BACK ON LINE ABOUT 10 PM LAST NIGHT. HOPEFULLY BUOY
44025 WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.

TODAY...LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH
THE EAST COAST TODAY. LATEST OBS SHOW 13-14 SEC WAVE PERIODS THIS
MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS WIT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE 4 FT WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT
(GUSTING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY).

TONIGHT...SWELLS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WITH US THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA SHOULD THEN EASE SOME AS THE WINDS
TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. THE SURGE COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME 25-KNOT GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. AS OF NOW THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF IT BUT THEY SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SEAS HOWEVER COULD BE RIGHT NEAR 5 FEET SATURDAY FROM THE EARLIER
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ/DE BECAUSE OF
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180810
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY,
THEN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SCHEDULED TO BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAVE POPS AT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

COULD BE SOME SCATTERED FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WE HAD YESTERDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. I PAINTED A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COULD BE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY THE FRIDAY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DIVE INTO
THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY
THEN START TO LIFT OUT LATE TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH IS SCHEDULED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WE USED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL
OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR
AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL COMPLICATION IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ACTUALLY VEER
TO MORE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, FOCUSING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE. IT IS HERE WHERE
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH
STRATUS DEVELOPS DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICK THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN UP. FOR NOW, WE INCREASED THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT A
BIT MORE. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY
ALONG THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS OCCURS
AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HEIGHTS RISE
SOME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT THAT MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS OUR CWA
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A SHORT
WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW
EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT DUE TO MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING
AWAY TO THE NORTH. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW THEREFORE WE
CONTINUED WITH NO THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LEAD
SHORT WAVE NEAR THE CAROLINAS MAY ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW ALONG AN
OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND HAVE
NO REAL AFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
SOME MORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS MONDAY.
BASED ON SOME RIDGING ENTERING THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING
TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING
JUST TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. REGARDING POPS, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY START TO LIFT OUT SOME WITH ANY FOCUS GENERALLY TO OUR
NORTH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS. IF THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH ENDS UP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, THEN WE WILL HAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AS OF NOW,
LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE FOR ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

TODAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
FOG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MVFR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO
FOG. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY BY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN ONSHORE FLOW. OUR CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR SOME FOG TO START EACH
DAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44065 CAME BACK ON LINE ABOUT 10 PM LAST NIGHT. HOPEFULLY BUOY
44025 IS NOT FAR BEHIND.

TODAY...LONG PERIOD SWELLS REMAIN THE NORM AT THIS TIME, THANKS TO
EDOUARD. PERIODS ARE IN THE 12 TO 14 SECOND RANGE. NO HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED TODAY WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS
AT OR LESS THEN 4 FEET.

TONIGHT...SWELLS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WITH US THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA SHOULD THEN EASE SOME AS THE WINDS
TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. THE SURGE COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME 25-KNOT GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. AS OF NOW THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF IT BUT THEY SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SEAS HOWEVER COULD BE RIGHT NEAR 5 FEET SATURDAY FROM THE EARLIER
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND A LOW
RISK ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF SWELLS IN NJ AND DE WILL PROBABLY
GO MODERATE EVERYWHERE WHEN I DO THE SRF FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 180810
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING MONDAY,
THEN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SCHEDULED TO BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAVE POPS AT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

COULD BE SOME SCATTERED FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WE HAD YESTERDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. I PAINTED A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COULD BE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY THE FRIDAY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO DIVE INTO
THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY
THEN START TO LIFT OUT LATE TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH IS SCHEDULED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WE USED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL
OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR
AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL COMPLICATION IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ACTUALLY VEER
TO MORE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, FOCUSING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE. IT IS HERE WHERE
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH
STRATUS DEVELOPS DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICK THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN UP. FOR NOW, WE INCREASED THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT A
BIT MORE. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY
ALONG THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS OCCURS
AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HEIGHTS RISE
SOME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT THAT MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS OUR CWA
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A SHORT
WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW
EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT DUE TO MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING
AWAY TO THE NORTH. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW THEREFORE WE
CONTINUED WITH NO THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE GENERALLY FAVORED A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LEAD
SHORT WAVE NEAR THE CAROLINAS MAY ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW ALONG AN
OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST AND HAVE
NO REAL AFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
SOME MORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS MONDAY.
BASED ON SOME RIDGING ENTERING THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING
TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING
JUST TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. REGARDING POPS, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY START TO LIFT OUT SOME WITH ANY FOCUS GENERALLY TO OUR
NORTH.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS. IF THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH ENDS UP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, THEN WE WILL HAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN. AS OF NOW,
LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE FOR ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

TODAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
FOG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MVFR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO
FOG. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY BY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN ONSHORE FLOW. OUR CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR SOME FOG TO START EACH
DAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44065 CAME BACK ON LINE ABOUT 10 PM LAST NIGHT. HOPEFULLY BUOY
44025 IS NOT FAR BEHIND.

TODAY...LONG PERIOD SWELLS REMAIN THE NORM AT THIS TIME, THANKS TO
EDOUARD. PERIODS ARE IN THE 12 TO 14 SECOND RANGE. NO HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED TODAY WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS
AT OR LESS THEN 4 FEET.

TONIGHT...SWELLS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE WITH US THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA SHOULD THEN EASE SOME AS THE WINDS
TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. THE SURGE COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME 25-KNOT GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. AS OF NOW THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF IT BUT THEY SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
SEAS HOWEVER COULD BE RIGHT NEAR 5 FEET SATURDAY FROM THE EARLIER
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND A LOW
RISK ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF SWELLS IN NJ AND DE WILL PROBABLY
GO MODERATE EVERYWHERE WHEN I DO THE SRF FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT AIR
MASS IN PLACE. THE DIURNAL CU/SC HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE CLR
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DROPPING STEADILY...AND SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WE KEPT IN THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
USUALLY FOGGY SPOTS (LEHIGH VALLEY...SRN POCONOS AND PINE
BARRENS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT
TO SEA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT AIR
MASS IN PLACE. THE DIURNAL CU/SC HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE CLR
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DROPPING STEADILY...AND SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WE KEPT IN THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
USUALLY FOGGY SPOTS (LEHIGH VALLEY...SRN POCONOS AND PINE
BARRENS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT
TO SEA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT AIR
MASS IN PLACE. THE DIURNAL CU/SC HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE CLR
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DROPPING STEADILY...AND SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WE KEPT IN THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
USUALLY FOGGY SPOTS (LEHIGH VALLEY...SRN POCONOS AND PINE
BARRENS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT
TO SEA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT AIR
MASS IN PLACE. THE DIURNAL CU/SC HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE CLR
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DROPPING STEADILY...AND SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WE KEPT IN THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
USUALLY FOGGY SPOTS (LEHIGH VALLEY...SRN POCONOS AND PINE
BARRENS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT
TO SEA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171914
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
314 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND NIGHTS THAT ARE GETTING LONGER,
PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT. THE FOGGER TOOL WAS
USED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL AWAY
FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 171914
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
314 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND NIGHTS THAT ARE GETTING LONGER,
PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT. THE FOGGER TOOL WAS
USED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL AWAY
FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BY TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE SUNDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS...HAS DISSIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION BY MID DAY, WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS SUCH, THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IN OVER THE REGION OR IF THEY WILL HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES TO START. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO WEAKEN SOME. THIS RESULTS
IN MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR A
TIME. SOME RIDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT
WAVE TO DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, ONE /WEAK/
THURSDAY THEN A PERHAPS A STRONGER ONE LATE SUNDAY. WE USED A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EAST THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT, HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY THIS FAR SOUTH LOOKS WEAKER WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
LIMITED AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL LOOK FAIRLY DRY. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PHILADELPHIA SHOW A CAP NEAR
7000 FEET DURING SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE DELMARVA, AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH THE CAA TO KEEP A LITTLE WIND GOING EVEN INLAND, THEREFORE AS
OF NOW THE THREAT FOR ANY INLAND FROST LOOKS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME
OCEAN-INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. AS OF
NOW, WE DID NOT EMPHASIZE THE CLOUD COVER MUCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS
OCCURS AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT
THAT MOSTLY SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR CWA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD TAKE THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP
SOME. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING AWAY TO THE NORTH. WE
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH
PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE DETAILS. BASED
ON RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY POST-FRONTAL AS SOME SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS EARLY MONDAY THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TONIGHT. IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AND COULD AFFECT KACY, KMIV, AND KABE. HOWEVER,
IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NOT ONLY THE EXTENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OR LACK THEREOF, BUT ALSO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH ALL OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES, FOG IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG SATURDAY, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER, SO FAR BUOY DATA SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS EVEN AT BUOY 44066
REMAINING BELOW 3 FT, OR ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING FOR THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THINK THAT THE GUIDANCE IS OVER
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF EDOUARD SWELL HEIGHTS, AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS AT 44066 AND
44009 WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WIND SURGE MOVING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN EASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SURGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR 25-KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 171317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BY TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE SUNDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS...HAS DISSIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION BY MID DAY, WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS SUCH, THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IN OVER THE REGION OR IF THEY WILL HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES TO START. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO WEAKEN SOME. THIS RESULTS
IN MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR A
TIME. SOME RIDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT
WAVE TO DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, ONE /WEAK/
THURSDAY THEN A PERHAPS A STRONGER ONE LATE SUNDAY. WE USED A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EAST THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT, HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY THIS FAR SOUTH LOOKS WEAKER WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
LIMITED AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL LOOK FAIRLY DRY. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PHILADELPHIA SHOW A CAP NEAR
7000 FEET DURING SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE DELMARVA, AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH THE CAA TO KEEP A LITTLE WIND GOING EVEN INLAND, THEREFORE AS
OF NOW THE THREAT FOR ANY INLAND FROST LOOKS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME
OCEAN-INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. AS OF
NOW, WE DID NOT EMPHASIZE THE CLOUD COVER MUCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS
OCCURS AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT
THAT MOSTLY SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR CWA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD TAKE THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP
SOME. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING AWAY TO THE NORTH. WE
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH
PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE DETAILS. BASED
ON RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY POST-FRONTAL AS SOME SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS EARLY MONDAY THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TONIGHT. IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AND COULD AFFECT KACY, KMIV, AND KABE. HOWEVER,
IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NOT ONLY THE EXTENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OR LACK THEREOF, BUT ALSO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH ALL OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES, FOG IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG SATURDAY, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER, SO FAR BUOY DATA SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS EVEN AT BUOY 44066
REMAINING BELOW 3 FT, OR ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING FOR THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THINK THAT THE GUIDANCE IS OVER
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF EDOUARD SWELL HEIGHTS, AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS AT 44066 AND
44009 WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WIND SURGE MOVING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN EASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SURGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR 25-KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 171317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BY TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE SUNDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS...HAS DISSIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION BY MID DAY, WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS SUCH, THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IN OVER THE REGION OR IF THEY WILL HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES TO START. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO WEAKEN SOME. THIS RESULTS
IN MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR A
TIME. SOME RIDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT
WAVE TO DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, ONE /WEAK/
THURSDAY THEN A PERHAPS A STRONGER ONE LATE SUNDAY. WE USED A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EAST THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT, HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY THIS FAR SOUTH LOOKS WEAKER WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
LIMITED AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL LOOK FAIRLY DRY. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PHILADELPHIA SHOW A CAP NEAR
7000 FEET DURING SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE DELMARVA, AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH THE CAA TO KEEP A LITTLE WIND GOING EVEN INLAND, THEREFORE AS
OF NOW THE THREAT FOR ANY INLAND FROST LOOKS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME
OCEAN-INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. AS OF
NOW, WE DID NOT EMPHASIZE THE CLOUD COVER MUCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS
OCCURS AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT
THAT MOSTLY SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR CWA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD TAKE THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP
SOME. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING AWAY TO THE NORTH. WE
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH
PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE DETAILS. BASED
ON RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY POST-FRONTAL AS SOME SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS EARLY MONDAY THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TONIGHT. IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AND COULD AFFECT KACY, KMIV, AND KABE. HOWEVER,
IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NOT ONLY THE EXTENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OR LACK THEREOF, BUT ALSO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH ALL OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES, FOG IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG SATURDAY, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER, SO FAR BUOY DATA SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS EVEN AT BUOY 44066
REMAINING BELOW 3 FT, OR ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING FOR THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THINK THAT THE GUIDANCE IS OVER
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF EDOUARD SWELL HEIGHTS, AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS AT 44066 AND
44009 WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WIND SURGE MOVING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN EASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SURGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR 25-KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 171317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BY TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE SUNDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS...HAS DISSIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION BY MID DAY, WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS SUCH, THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IN OVER THE REGION OR IF THEY WILL HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES TO START. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO WEAKEN SOME. THIS RESULTS
IN MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR A
TIME. SOME RIDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT
WAVE TO DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, ONE /WEAK/
THURSDAY THEN A PERHAPS A STRONGER ONE LATE SUNDAY. WE USED A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EAST THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT, HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY THIS FAR SOUTH LOOKS WEAKER WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
LIMITED AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL LOOK FAIRLY DRY. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PHILADELPHIA SHOW A CAP NEAR
7000 FEET DURING SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE DELMARVA, AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH THE CAA TO KEEP A LITTLE WIND GOING EVEN INLAND, THEREFORE AS
OF NOW THE THREAT FOR ANY INLAND FROST LOOKS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME
OCEAN-INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. AS OF
NOW, WE DID NOT EMPHASIZE THE CLOUD COVER MUCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS
OCCURS AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT
THAT MOSTLY SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR CWA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD TAKE THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP
SOME. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING AWAY TO THE NORTH. WE
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH
PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE DETAILS. BASED
ON RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY POST-FRONTAL AS SOME SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS EARLY MONDAY THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TONIGHT. IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AND COULD AFFECT KACY, KMIV, AND KABE. HOWEVER,
IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NOT ONLY THE EXTENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OR LACK THEREOF, BUT ALSO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH ALL OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES, FOG IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG SATURDAY, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER, SO FAR BUOY DATA SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS EVEN AT BUOY 44066
REMAINING BELOW 3 FT, OR ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING FOR THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THINK THAT THE GUIDANCE IS OVER
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF EDOUARD SWELL HEIGHTS, AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS AT 44066 AND
44009 WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WIND SURGE MOVING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN EASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SURGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR 25-KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON








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