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000
FXUS61 KPHI 271018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR
REGION AT 63O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR REGION AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD
COME TO AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, MAINLY IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN, JUST AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO COME TO
END.THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WAS
ENDING AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1000Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BY ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND
1900Z TO 2100Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR
REGION AT 63O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR REGION AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD
COME TO AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, MAINLY IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN, JUST AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO COME TO
END.THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WAS
ENDING AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1000Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BY ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND
1900Z TO 2100Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR
REGION AT 63O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR REGION AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD
COME TO AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, MAINLY IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN, JUST AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO COME TO
END.THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WAS
ENDING AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1000Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BY ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND
1900Z TO 2100Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270444
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 1230 AM.
THE BOUNDARY HAD JUST PASSED FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS TO THE
CATSKILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
BUILD UP INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE IN
PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS TO CREATE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
OR PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AT 1230 AM. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
30S IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS OR WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-
GOING AT THAT TIME, WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF
THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED
TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT
MUCH BLOCKING WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING
TO COMBAT ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY
SEASON TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT
DEAL IN MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE
INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND KRDG AND KABE AFTER
ABOUT 0800Z WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT MAINLY INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MAY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTED TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BUT COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEFNERNEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEFNER AVIATION...HEFNER/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEFNER/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270444
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 1230 AM.
THE BOUNDARY HAD JUST PASSED FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS TO THE
CATSKILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
BUILD UP INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE IN
PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS TO CREATE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
OR PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AT 1230 AM. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
30S IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS OR WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-
GOING AT THAT TIME, WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF
THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED
TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT
MUCH BLOCKING WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING
TO COMBAT ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY
SEASON TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT
DEAL IN MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE
INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND KRDG AND KABE AFTER
ABOUT 0800Z WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT MAINLY INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MAY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTED TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BUT COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEFNERNEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEFNER AVIATION...HEFNER/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEFNER/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270444
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 1230 AM.
THE BOUNDARY HAD JUST PASSED FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS TO THE
CATSKILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
BUILD UP INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE IN
PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS TO CREATE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
OR PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AT 1230 AM. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
30S IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS OR WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-
GOING AT THAT TIME, WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF
THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED
TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT
MUCH BLOCKING WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING
TO COMBAT ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY
SEASON TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT
DEAL IN MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE
INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND KRDG AND KABE AFTER
ABOUT 0800Z WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT MAINLY INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MAY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTED TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BUT COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEFNERNEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEFNER AVIATION...HEFNER/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEFNER/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270444
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 1230 AM.
THE BOUNDARY HAD JUST PASSED FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS TO THE
CATSKILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
BUILD UP INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE IN
PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS TO CREATE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
OR PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AT 1230 AM. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
30S IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS OR WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-
GOING AT THAT TIME, WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF
THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED
TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT
MUCH BLOCKING WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING
TO COMBAT ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY
SEASON TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT
DEAL IN MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE
INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND KRDG AND KABE AFTER
ABOUT 0800Z WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT MAINLY INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MAY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTED TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BUT COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEFNERNEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEFNER AVIATION...HEFNER/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEFNER/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270146
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SNOW MAP POSTING FOR EXTREME NW PTN OF THE FCST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PCPN IS LEFT WHEN IT TURNS COLD
ENOUGH TO SNOW. WE MAY NEED AN SPS FOR SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR AND N OF I-80 EARLY FRIDAY?

THE GRIDS EVEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW DOWN TO NEAR PHL AROUND
DAYBREAK BUT TOO WARM TO ACCUMULATE.

THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT ARE NOW VERY LIMITED.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 01Z VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR IN
SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO VFR HIGH CIGS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA. THE VARIED
CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG WITH
RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP THIS
EVENING.

KMIV/KACY CFP BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27. AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND
25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN THE NW WIND SETTLES
BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN TOWARD
DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL, ESPECIALLY
NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO DRIVES SEWD
WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 948
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 948
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 948
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 948



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270146
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SNOW MAP POSTING FOR EXTREME NW PTN OF THE FCST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PCPN IS LEFT WHEN IT TURNS COLD
ENOUGH TO SNOW. WE MAY NEED AN SPS FOR SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR AND N OF I-80 EARLY FRIDAY?

THE GRIDS EVEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW DOWN TO NEAR PHL AROUND
DAYBREAK BUT TOO WARM TO ACCUMULATE.

THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT ARE NOW VERY LIMITED.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 01Z VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR IN
SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO VFR HIGH CIGS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA. THE VARIED
CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG WITH
RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP THIS
EVENING.

KMIV/KACY CFP BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27. AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND
25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN THE NW WIND SETTLES
BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN TOWARD
DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL, ESPECIALLY
NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO DRIVES SEWD
WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 948
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 948
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 948
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 948




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262221
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL PROBABLY UPDATE SNOW AMTS IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 630 PM FOR
A PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.

TSTMS VCNTY HARRISBURG SW INTO N MD WITH CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING IC
AND A FEW REPORTS OF PEA HAIL WITH VIL 20. HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND
NOWS PER INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE IN SE PA, NE MD AND N DE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON GOING, WHICH WE THINK IT
WILL BE. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT
PHL/KILG/KRDG WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR
CONDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. WE NOW HAVE UPGRADED
FOR THUNDER AT KRDG.

THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE
NEAR 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR 02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN
03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 262136
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
536 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL PROBABLY UPDATE SNOW AMTS IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 630 PM FOR
A PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.

BUSY NOW WITH TSTMS VCNTY HARRISBURG HEADING FOR READING PA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS THE FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON GOING, WHICH WE THINK IT
WILL BE. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT PHL/KILG
WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR CONDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. WE NOW HAVE UPGRADED
FOR THUNDER AT KRDG.

THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE
NEAR 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR 02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN
03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/DRAG 537
SHORT TERM...MEOLA/DRAG 537
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA 537
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 262136
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
536 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL PROBABLY UPDATE SNOW AMTS IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 630 PM FOR
A PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.

BUSY NOW WITH TSTMS VCNTY HARRISBURG HEADING FOR READING PA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS THE FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON GOING, WHICH WE THINK IT
WILL BE. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT PHL/KILG
WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR CONDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. WE NOW HAVE UPGRADED
FOR THUNDER AT KRDG.

THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE
NEAR 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR 02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN
03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/DRAG 537
SHORT TERM...MEOLA/DRAG 537
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA 537
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262046
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - POSSIBLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR
WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT PHL/KILG
WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR CONDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED
FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR
02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS
EVENING...THEN SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING COULD
DEVELOP IN PCPN TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING KPHL, ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS
MODELED TO DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA 446
SHORT TERM...MEOLA 446
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA 446
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 446




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262046
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - POSSIBLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR
WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT PHL/KILG
WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR CONDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED
FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR
02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS
EVENING...THEN SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING COULD
DEVELOP IN PCPN TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING KPHL, ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS
MODELED TO DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA 446
SHORT TERM...MEOLA 446
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA 446
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 446



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS HANGING AROUND, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WAVE LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS FROM EXITING
OFFSHORE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR MAY
OCCUR. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
THROUGH KABE/KRDG BETWEEN 01-3Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG BETWEEN 03-06Z,
AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 06-08Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...HEAVENER/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS STARTED TO LIFT A BIT AND
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND
AND EXPECTED TO TRAVEL UP THROUGH DELAWARE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE
AS THEY PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ENTIRELY. AS A RESULT,
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH
THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
THERE. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP WITH
IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND
KACY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.

CONDITIONS VARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR, WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT KPHL AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EAST AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
BEING THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS QUITE COLD AND THE AIR
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER MILD,
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTS
MAY REACH ONLY 25 OR 30 KNOTS EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KNOTS TODAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE A HALF MILE OR LESS
OVER THE WATER.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.

WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING
TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS STARTED TO LIFT A BIT AND
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND
AND EXPECTED TO TRAVEL UP THROUGH DELAWARE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE
AS THEY PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ENTIRELY. AS A RESULT,
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH
THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
THERE. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP WITH
IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND
KACY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.

CONDITIONS VARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR, WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT KPHL AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EAST AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
BEING THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS QUITE COLD AND THE AIR
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER MILD,
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTS
MAY REACH ONLY 25 OR 30 KNOTS EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KNOTS TODAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE A HALF MILE OR LESS
OVER THE WATER.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.

WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING
TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AROUND 530 AM.
HOWEVER, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.THERE WAS
ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF FOG NEAR THE COAST AND OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND IT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WERE ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL DELAWARE AROUND 530 AM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PASS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
DEVELOPING LIFT AND SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ENTIRELY. AS A RESULT,
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH
THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
THERE. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP WITH
IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND
KACY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.

CONDITIONS WERE IFR AT KTTN, KPNE AND KACY AROUND 0930Z AND THEY
WERE GENERALLY MVFR AT OUR REMAINING FIVE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AT KPHL,
KILG, KMIV, KRDG AND KABE WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND AFFECTING MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EAST AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
BEING THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS QUITE COLD AND THE AIR
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER MILD,
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTS
MAY REACH ONLY 25 OR 30 KNOTS EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KNOTS TODAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE A HALF MILE OR LESS
OVER THE WATER.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.

WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING
TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AROUND 530 AM.
HOWEVER, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.THERE WAS
ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF FOG NEAR THE COAST AND OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND IT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WERE ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL DELAWARE AROUND 530 AM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PASS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
DEVELOPING LIFT AND SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ENTIRELY. AS A RESULT,
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH
THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
THERE. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP WITH
IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND
KACY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.

CONDITIONS WERE IFR AT KTTN, KPNE AND KACY AROUND 0930Z AND THEY
WERE GENERALLY MVFR AT OUR REMAINING FIVE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AT KPHL,
KILG, KMIV, KRDG AND KABE WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND AFFECTING MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EAST AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
BEING THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS QUITE COLD AND THE AIR
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER MILD,
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTS
MAY REACH ONLY 25 OR 30 KNOTS EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KNOTS TODAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE A HALF MILE OR LESS
OVER THE WATER.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.

WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING
TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 330 AM. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CEILING
HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO OUR AREA
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING LIFT AND
SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF
SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WILL
ENTIRE SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH
SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. HOWEVER,
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP
WITH IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND KACY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 0900Z, THEN WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE EAST
AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.


SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 330 AM. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CEILING
HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO OUR AREA
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING LIFT AND
SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF
SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WILL
ENTIRE SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH
SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. HOWEVER,
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP
WITH IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND KACY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 0900Z, THEN WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE EAST
AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.


SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 330 AM. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CEILING
HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO OUR AREA
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING LIFT AND
SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF
SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WILL
ENTIRE SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH
SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. HOWEVER,
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP
WITH IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND KACY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 0900Z, THEN WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE EAST
AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.


SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 330 AM. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CEILING
HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO OUR AREA
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING LIFT AND
SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF
SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WILL
ENTIRE SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH
SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. HOWEVER,
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP
WITH IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND KACY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 0900Z, THEN WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE EAST
AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.


SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR REGION MIDDAY THURSDAY. THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEST SATURDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: ADJUSTED POPS LOWER TO REFLECT DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED MUCH OF OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
NOT THINKING MUCH DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND SO REDUCED THAT RISK.
THINK THE FOG WILL HOLD OFF FOR A WHILE SINCE LOW CIGS NOT YET EVIDENT.

TEMPS NEAR WHERE THEY ARE NOW AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT.
STEADY.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WHICH SHOULD GENERATE
WAA BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE DELMARVA
AND FAR SNJ AFTER 09Z/26.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NE OFF
THE NJ/DE COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN A BREAK IN THE WX WITH
MORNING FOG/SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BECAUSE OF WARM
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

FOG MAY BECOME QUITE THICK FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS DEWPOINTS RISE AND THE WARM FRONT LOWERS TO THE
SFC. THE THICKEST FOG ALONG AND N OF I 78 MAY BE DELAYED TIL
MIDDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY APPEAR NEAR I-78 NE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER
70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA ANS
TRENTON SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THERE...HAVE MY DOUBTS AND WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER LOWERING MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH OF I-78, OR
AT LEAST DELAY MAX TEMP THERE TIL 6P.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A POSSIBLY A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MLCAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE SWI STABILIZES AFTER THE
MORNING VALUES WHICH ARE NEAR -2 ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR-MVFR CIGS FOR A WHILE. CONDS RAPIDLY LOWER
TO IFR-LIFR IN ST/FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z/26.
HEAVY SHOWERS OR A TSTM POSSIBLE VCNTY KMIV AFTER 10Z/26. TSTM
NOT IN THE TAF ATTM. WINDS AT 2000 FT CURRENTLY SSW NEAR 35 KT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN
40-45 KT, ESPECIALLY SE NJ WHERE MAINTAINED A PERIOD LLWS.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON DETAILS.

THURSDAY... IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE DAY IN ST/FOG WITH SCT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DELMARVA ACROSS SE NJ EARLY IN
THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH SW WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN MOST TAF SITES
FROM PHL-TTN SOUTH AND EAST EXCEPT NOT KRDG AND KABE WHERE IFR
CONDS MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE DAY OR EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 954
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 954
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 954




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR REGION MIDDAY THURSDAY. THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEST SATURDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: ADJUSTED POPS LOWER TO REFLECT DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED MUCH OF OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
NOT THINKING MUCH DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND SO REDUCED THAT RISK.
THINK THE FOG WILL HOLD OFF FOR A WHILE SINCE LOW CIGS NOT YET EVIDENT.

TEMPS NEAR WHERE THEY ARE NOW AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT.
STEADY.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WHICH SHOULD GENERATE
WAA BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE DELMARVA
AND FAR SNJ AFTER 09Z/26.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NE OFF
THE NJ/DE COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN A BREAK IN THE WX WITH
MORNING FOG/SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BECAUSE OF WARM
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

FOG MAY BECOME QUITE THICK FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS DEWPOINTS RISE AND THE WARM FRONT LOWERS TO THE
SFC. THE THICKEST FOG ALONG AND N OF I 78 MAY BE DELAYED TIL
MIDDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY APPEAR NEAR I-78 NE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER
70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA ANS
TRENTON SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THERE...HAVE MY DOUBTS AND WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER LOWERING MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH OF I-78, OR
AT LEAST DELAY MAX TEMP THERE TIL 6P.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A POSSIBLY A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MLCAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE SWI STABILIZES AFTER THE
MORNING VALUES WHICH ARE NEAR -2 ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR-MVFR CIGS FOR A WHILE. CONDS RAPIDLY LOWER
TO IFR-LIFR IN ST/FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z/26.
HEAVY SHOWERS OR A TSTM POSSIBLE VCNTY KMIV AFTER 10Z/26. TSTM
NOT IN THE TAF ATTM. WINDS AT 2000 FT CURRENTLY SSW NEAR 35 KT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN
40-45 KT, ESPECIALLY SE NJ WHERE MAINTAINED A PERIOD LLWS.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON DETAILS.

THURSDAY... IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE DAY IN ST/FOG WITH SCT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DELMARVA ACROSS SE NJ EARLY IN
THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH SW WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN MOST TAF SITES
FROM PHL-TTN SOUTH AND EAST EXCEPT NOT KRDG AND KABE WHERE IFR
CONDS MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE DAY OR EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 954
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 954
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 954




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR REGION MIDDAY THURSDAY. THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEST SATURDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: ADJUSTED POPS LOWER TO REFLECT DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED MUCH OF OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
NOT THINKING MUCH DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND SO REDUCED THAT RISK.
THINK THE FOG WILL HOLD OFF FOR A WHILE SINCE LOW CIGS NOT YET EVIDENT.

TEMPS NEAR WHERE THEY ARE NOW AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT.
STEADY.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WHICH SHOULD GENERATE
WAA BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE DELMARVA
AND FAR SNJ AFTER 09Z/26.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NE OFF
THE NJ/DE COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN A BREAK IN THE WX WITH
MORNING FOG/SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BECAUSE OF WARM
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

FOG MAY BECOME QUITE THICK FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS DEWPOINTS RISE AND THE WARM FRONT LOWERS TO THE
SFC. THE THICKEST FOG ALONG AND N OF I 78 MAY BE DELAYED TIL
MIDDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY APPEAR NEAR I-78 NE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER
70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA ANS
TRENTON SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THERE...HAVE MY DOUBTS AND WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER LOWERING MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH OF I-78, OR
AT LEAST DELAY MAX TEMP THERE TIL 6P.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A POSSIBLY A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MLCAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE SWI STABILIZES AFTER THE
MORNING VALUES WHICH ARE NEAR -2 ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR-MVFR CIGS FOR A WHILE. CONDS RAPIDLY LOWER
TO IFR-LIFR IN ST/FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z/26.
HEAVY SHOWERS OR A TSTM POSSIBLE VCNTY KMIV AFTER 10Z/26. TSTM
NOT IN THE TAF ATTM. WINDS AT 2000 FT CURRENTLY SSW NEAR 35 KT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN
40-45 KT, ESPECIALLY SE NJ WHERE MAINTAINED A PERIOD LLWS.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON DETAILS.

THURSDAY... IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE DAY IN ST/FOG WITH SCT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DELMARVA ACROSS SE NJ EARLY IN
THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH SW WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN MOST TAF SITES
FROM PHL-TTN SOUTH AND EAST EXCEPT NOT KRDG AND KABE WHERE IFR
CONDS MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE DAY OR EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 954
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 954
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 954



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
806 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEST SATURDAY WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
750 PM ESTF: RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH OF SE NJ AND
RAISED POPS BACK TO I95 THIS EVENING FOR THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSING NJ/DE ATTM. SOME OF THE RAIN IS BRIEFLY HEAVY.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE NE TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND
POSSIBLY SPAWN BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
DELMARVA AND FAR SNJ AFTER 09Z/26.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NE OFF
THE NJ/DE COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN A BREAK IN THE WX WITH
MORNING FOG/SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BECAUSE OF WARM
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTN. GUSTS WERE
INCREASED IN THE 630 PM FCST FOR THU AFTN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A POSSIBLY A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MLCAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE SWI STABILIZES AFTER THE
MORNING VALUES WHICH ARE NEAR -2 ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR-MVFR CIGS WITH EVENING SHOWERS ENDING. THEN
CONDS RAPIDLY LOWER TO IFR-LIFR IN ST/FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z/26. HEAVY SHOWERS OR A TSTM POSSIBLE VCNTY
KMIV AFTER 09Z/26. TSTM NOT IN THE TAF YET. WITHDREW LLWS FM THE
TAF EXCEPT AT KMIV AND KACY. WINDS AT 2000 FT CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY
NEAR 25 KT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 40-45 KT, ESPECIALLY SE NJ. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON
DETAILS

THURSDAY... IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE DAY IN ST/FOG WITH ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DELMARVA ACROSS NJ EARLY
IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH SW WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN MOST TAF SITES
EXCEPT NOT KRDG AND KABE. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER TO
OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY OR
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON  805
NEAR TERM...DRAG 805
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 805
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 805



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
806 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEST SATURDAY WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
750 PM ESTF: RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH OF SE NJ AND
RAISED POPS BACK TO I95 THIS EVENING FOR THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSING NJ/DE ATTM. SOME OF THE RAIN IS BRIEFLY HEAVY.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE NE TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND
POSSIBLY SPAWN BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
DELMARVA AND FAR SNJ AFTER 09Z/26.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NE OFF
THE NJ/DE COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN A BREAK IN THE WX WITH
MORNING FOG/SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BECAUSE OF WARM
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTN. GUSTS WERE
INCREASED IN THE 630 PM FCST FOR THU AFTN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A POSSIBLY A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MLCAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE SWI STABILIZES AFTER THE
MORNING VALUES WHICH ARE NEAR -2 ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR-MVFR CIGS WITH EVENING SHOWERS ENDING. THEN
CONDS RAPIDLY LOWER TO IFR-LIFR IN ST/FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z/26. HEAVY SHOWERS OR A TSTM POSSIBLE VCNTY
KMIV AFTER 09Z/26. TSTM NOT IN THE TAF YET. WITHDREW LLWS FM THE
TAF EXCEPT AT KMIV AND KACY. WINDS AT 2000 FT CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY
NEAR 25 KT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 40-45 KT, ESPECIALLY SE NJ. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON
DETAILS

THURSDAY... IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE DAY IN ST/FOG WITH ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DELMARVA ACROSS NJ EARLY
IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH SW WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN MOST TAF SITES
EXCEPT NOT KRDG AND KABE. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER TO
OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY OR
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON  805
NEAR TERM...DRAG 805
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 805
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 805




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252250
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND
HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEST SATURDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN PTNS OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN. CHANGED WX TO SHOWERY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND
REMOVED FOG/DRIZZLE EARLY. 18Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF RH TSECS SUGGEST
FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL MORE LIKELY AFTER 04Z.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE NE TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND
POSSIBLY SPAWN BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
DELMARVA AND FAR SNJ AFTER 09Z/26.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NE OFF
THE NJ/DE COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN A BREAK IN THE WX WITH
MORNING FOG/SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BECAUSE OF WARM
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTN. GUSTS WERE
INCREASED IN THE 630 PM FCST FOR THU AFTN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A POSSIBLY A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MLCAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE SWI STABILIZES AFTER THE
MORNING VALUES WHICH ARE NEAR -2 ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR-MVFR CIGS WITH SCT EVENING SHOWERS WILL LOWER TO
IFR- LIFR IN ST/FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE TOWARD 10Z. HEAVY SHOWERS
OR A TSTM POSSIBLE VCNTY KMIV AFTER 09Z/26. WITHDRAWING LLWS BUT
WINDS SPEEDS AT 2000 FT WILL BECOME SW NEAR 40 KT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TIMING THE TAF DETAILS.

THURSDAY... IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE DAY IN ST/FOG WITH ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DELMARVA ACROSS NJ EARLY
IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SW WIND GUSTS
OF AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPING. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER TO
OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY OR
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON 650
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 650
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 650
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 650
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 650




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252250
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND
HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEST SATURDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN PTNS OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN. CHANGED WX TO SHOWERY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND
REMOVED FOG/DRIZZLE EARLY. 18Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF RH TSECS SUGGEST
FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL MORE LIKELY AFTER 04Z.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE NE TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND
POSSIBLY SPAWN BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
DELMARVA AND FAR SNJ AFTER 09Z/26.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NE OFF
THE NJ/DE COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN A BREAK IN THE WX WITH
MORNING FOG/SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BECAUSE OF WARM
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTN. GUSTS WERE
INCREASED IN THE 630 PM FCST FOR THU AFTN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A POSSIBLY A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MLCAPE ON THURSDAY AND THE SWI STABILIZES AFTER THE
MORNING VALUES WHICH ARE NEAR -2 ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR-MVFR CIGS WITH SCT EVENING SHOWERS WILL LOWER TO
IFR- LIFR IN ST/FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE TOWARD 10Z. HEAVY SHOWERS
OR A TSTM POSSIBLE VCNTY KMIV AFTER 09Z/26. WITHDRAWING LLWS BUT
WINDS SPEEDS AT 2000 FT WILL BECOME SW NEAR 40 KT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TIMING THE TAF DETAILS.

THURSDAY... IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE DAY IN ST/FOG WITH ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DELMARVA ACROSS NJ EARLY
IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SW WIND GUSTS
OF AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPING. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER TO
OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY OR
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON 650
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 650
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 650
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 650
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA 650



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO
OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WHERE WE
ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 60S. MEANWHILE, WE REMAIN IN
THE 30S/40S WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.

WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE OFF
THE OCEAN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE FRONT LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND WARMING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RISING
INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
INTO THE

PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND THEN THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
BEFORE WE START TO SEE MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WE START SEEING THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER IN RESPONSE TO RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN DOWN
TO IFR AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
IN SOME MOISTURE OFF THE WATER ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AS YOU HEAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
KPHL, THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FOG FORMATION.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND AS A RESULT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KABE AND KRDG WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM THE JET TO SEE MUCH SHEAR.

THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUDS,
FOG AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO
OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WHERE WE
ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 60S. MEANWHILE, WE REMAIN IN
THE 30S/40S WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.

WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE OFF
THE OCEAN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE FRONT LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND WARMING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RISING
INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
INTO THE

PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND THEN THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
BEFORE WE START TO SEE MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WE START SEEING THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER IN RESPONSE TO RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN DOWN
TO IFR AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
IN SOME MOISTURE OFF THE WATER ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AS YOU HEAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
KPHL, THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FOG FORMATION.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND AS A RESULT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KABE AND KRDG WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM THE JET TO SEE MUCH SHEAR.

THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUDS,
FOG AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO
OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WHERE WE
ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 60S. MEANWHILE, WE REMAIN IN
THE 30S/40S WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.

WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE OFF
THE OCEAN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE FRONT LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND WARMING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RISING
INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
INTO THE

PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND THEN THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
BEFORE WE START TO SEE MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WE START SEEING THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER IN RESPONSE TO RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN DOWN
TO IFR AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
IN SOME MOISTURE OFF THE WATER ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AS YOU HEAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
KPHL, THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FOG FORMATION.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND AS A RESULT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KABE AND KRDG WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM THE JET TO SEE MUCH SHEAR.

THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUDS,
FOG AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO
OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WHERE WE
ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 60S. MEANWHILE, WE REMAIN IN
THE 30S/40S WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.

WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE OFF
THE OCEAN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE FRONT LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND WARMING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RISING
INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO
THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
INTO THE

PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND THEN THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
BEFORE WE START TO SEE MORE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH AS THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DIMINISHES, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
SOME SHOWERS POST FRONTAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS TO
BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS
HOLD ON THERE LONG ENOUGH.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK VERY ORGANIZED, SO WE KEEP ONLY 20/30 POPS FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MAY INTERACT
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY AND CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE LOW AND TROUGH PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME SNOW TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
WILL WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WE START SEEING THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER IN RESPONSE TO RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN DOWN
TO IFR AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
IN SOME MOISTURE OFF THE WATER ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AS YOU HEAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
KPHL, THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FOG FORMATION.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND AS A RESULT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KABE AND KRDG WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM THE JET TO SEE MUCH SHEAR.

THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUDS,
FOG AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VFR, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWER
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 8AM.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL NOT RESPOND INITIALLY
AS THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WATERS.

WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING 4 TO 6 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINS OF THE OCEAN DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. AS IT DOES, LOW PRESSURE, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. A LARGE AND UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PASS OUT TO SEA TODAY LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FAVORING THE EAST TO SOUTH
QUADRANT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ALTOCUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SLOWING APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND 11AM-NOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT
NOON AND 300 PM. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.

SOME FAIRLY DECENT WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. THE 850 HPA
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO WARM FROM AROUND 0C EARLY THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
5C TO 7C BY DARK. REGARDLESS, A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD DRY AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER BELOW 850 HPA AROUND THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WHETHER THE DRY AIR INITIALLY EVAPORATES THE
PRECIPITATION OR WHETHER IT CAUSES IT TO COOL ENOUGH TO FREEZE
REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AT THE START IN BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.

TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S IN OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 8C
TO 10C BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT. THE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY
DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES IN THE OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PD WILL BRING A WMFNT
THRU THE REGION ON THU. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA
BUT ALSO MAKE FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON STRONG SWLY FLOW. TEMPS
WILL MAKE THE 60S WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NEARING 70, IF NOT ABOVE IT.
THE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THRU THE MRNG AND PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO A CHC OF TSTMS AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
CAPE AND UVV AND A 50 KT LLJ TO CONTEND WITH.

THE GUID IS HINTING AT A PRECIP LULL THU AFTN AS THE CDFNT
APPROACHES, PERHAPS IT BECOMES MORE SHOWERY OR WE DO GET DRY
SLOTTED. THEN THE PRECIP WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE CFP OCCURS THU
EVE THRU FRI MRNG.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE CDFNT EXITS ON
FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT DURG THE
MRNG. THE GFS LINGERS PRECIP ACRS THE EAST THRU THE AFTN AND HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/WRF. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MDLS.
WPC GUID SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT OF THE GFS/NAM WRF SOLN SO HAVE KEPT
SOME POPS THRU THE PD.

LATER FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF MOVE OVER
THE ERN CONUS. WITH STRONG NWLY FLOW, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHWRS, MAINLY N AND W ON SAT, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST IS IN STORE
THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML BOTH
SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S, DESPITE THE STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN.

A WEAK AND FAST MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SKIRT ACRS SRN CANADA
ON MON AND A WK CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS NEW ENG AND THE NRN REACHES
OF THE REGION ON MON. IT COULD TRIGGER A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, SO WILL JUST CARRY LOW POPS.

TUE THEN LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN. MON AND TUE SHUD
SEE MODERATING TEMPS, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NRML AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EWD AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST BETWEEN ABOUT 1600Z AND 1800Z. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN
AS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT KRDG AND KABE. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO
SOUTH QUADRANT AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH MVFR THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE IFR RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN OFF THE
OCEAN BY A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV AND KACY. BOTH KRDG AND
KABE SHOULD BE OUTSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE NOT
MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU MRNG...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE. LLWS IS PSBL THU MRNG TO MIDDAY DUE TO THE PSBL
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SWLY JET OVERHEAD. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CUD BE A
LULL IN THE PRECIP THU AFTN. MDT CONFIDENCE. STRONG CFP THU NIGHT.

FRI...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH NW WIND BEHIND CFP. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING
OVER THE COLD WATER THE WIND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO THE RESULTING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. A SOUTHERLY WIND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONLY TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MRNG AND
LAST AT LEAST INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT.
GUSTS WILL REACH INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE, WITH A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURG THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT. SCA WILL BE RAISED WITH THIS PKG.

SAT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON SAT AS LINGERING SCA CONDS COULD
REMAIN. IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH WINDS RIGHT AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT, MAINLY ERLY.

SUN...STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILD IN COULD
INCREASE SEAS TO SCA AGAIN MAINLY ERLY AND WINDS CU GUST TO NR SCA
CRITERIA. BOTH WIND AND SEAS SHUD SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. AS IT DOES, LOW PRESSURE, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. A LARGE AND UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PASS OUT TO SEA TODAY LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FAVORING THE EAST TO SOUTH
QUADRANT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ALTOCUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SLOWING APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND 11AM-NOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT
NOON AND 300 PM. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.

SOME FAIRLY DECENT WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. THE 850 HPA
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO WARM FROM AROUND 0C EARLY THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
5C TO 7C BY DARK. REGARDLESS, A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD DRY AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER BELOW 850 HPA AROUND THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WHETHER THE DRY AIR INITIALLY EVAPORATES THE
PRECIPITATION OR WHETHER IT CAUSES IT TO COOL ENOUGH TO FREEZE
REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AT THE START IN BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.

TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S IN OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 8C
TO 10C BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT. THE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY
DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES IN THE OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PD WILL BRING A WMFNT
THRU THE REGION ON THU. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA
BUT ALSO MAKE FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON STRONG SWLY FLOW. TEMPS
WILL MAKE THE 60S WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NEARING 70, IF NOT ABOVE IT.
THE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THRU THE MRNG AND PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO A CHC OF TSTMS AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
CAPE AND UVV AND A 50 KT LLJ TO CONTEND WITH.

THE GUID IS HINTING AT A PRECIP LULL THU AFTN AS THE CDFNT
APPROACHES, PERHAPS IT BECOMES MORE SHOWERY OR WE DO GET DRY
SLOTTED. THEN THE PRECIP WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE CFP OCCURS THU
EVE THRU FRI MRNG.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE CDFNT EXITS ON
FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT DURG THE
MRNG. THE GFS LINGERS PRECIP ACRS THE EAST THRU THE AFTN AND HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/WRF. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MDLS.
WPC GUID SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT OF THE GFS/NAM WRF SOLN SO HAVE KEPT
SOME POPS THRU THE PD.

LATER FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF MOVE OVER
THE ERN CONUS. WITH STRONG NWLY FLOW, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHWRS, MAINLY N AND W ON SAT, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST IS IN STORE
THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML BOTH
SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S, DESPITE THE STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN.

A WEAK AND FAST MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SKIRT ACRS SRN CANADA
ON MON AND A WK CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS NEW ENG AND THE NRN REACHES
OF THE REGION ON MON. IT COULD TRIGGER A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, SO WILL JUST CARRY LOW POPS.

TUE THEN LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN. MON AND TUE SHUD
SEE MODERATING TEMPS, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NRML AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EWD AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST BETWEEN ABOUT 1600Z AND 1800Z. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN
AS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT KRDG AND KABE. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO
SOUTH QUADRANT AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH MVFR THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE IFR RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN OFF THE
OCEAN BY A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV AND KACY. BOTH KRDG AND
KABE SHOULD BE OUTSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE NOT
MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU MRNG...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE. LLWS IS PSBL THU MRNG TO MIDDAY DUE TO THE PSBL
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SWLY JET OVERHEAD. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CUD BE A
LULL IN THE PRECIP THU AFTN. MDT CONFIDENCE. STRONG CFP THU NIGHT.

FRI...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH NW WIND BEHIND CFP. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING
OVER THE COLD WATER THE WIND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO THE RESULTING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. A SOUTHERLY WIND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONLY TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MRNG AND
LAST AT LEAST INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT.
GUSTS WILL REACH INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE, WITH A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURG THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT. SCA WILL BE RAISED WITH THIS PKG.

SAT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON SAT AS LINGERING SCA CONDS COULD
REMAIN. IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH WINDS RIGHT AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT, MAINLY ERLY.

SUN...STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILD IN COULD
INCREASE SEAS TO SCA AGAIN MAINLY ERLY AND WINDS CU GUST TO NR SCA
CRITERIA. BOTH WIND AND SEAS SHUD SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. AS IT DOES, LOW PRESSURE, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. A LARGE AND UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PASS OUT TO SEA TODAY LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FAVORING THE EAST TO SOUTH
QUADRANT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ALTOCUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SLOWING APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND 11AM-NOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT
NOON AND 300 PM. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.

SOME FAIRLY DECENT WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. THE 850 HPA
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO WARM FROM AROUND 0C EARLY THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
5C TO 7C BY DARK. REGARDLESS, A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD DRY AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER BELOW 850 HPA AROUND THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WHETHER THE DRY AIR INITIALLY EVAPORATES THE
PRECIPITATION OR WHETHER IT CAUSES IT TO COOL ENOUGH TO FREEZE
REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AT THE START IN BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.

TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S IN OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 8C
TO 10C BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT. THE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY
DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES IN THE OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PD WILL BRING A WMFNT
THRU THE REGION ON THU. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA
BUT ALSO MAKE FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON STRONG SWLY FLOW. TEMPS
WILL MAKE THE 60S WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NEARING 70, IF NOT ABOVE IT.
THE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THRU THE MRNG AND PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO A CHC OF TSTMS AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
CAPE AND UVV AND A 50 KT LLJ TO CONTEND WITH.

THE GUID IS HINTING AT A PRECIP LULL THU AFTN AS THE CDFNT
APPROACHES, PERHAPS IT BECOMES MORE SHOWERY OR WE DO GET DRY
SLOTTED. THEN THE PRECIP WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE CFP OCCURS THU
EVE THRU FRI MRNG.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE CDFNT EXITS ON
FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT DURG THE
MRNG. THE GFS LINGERS PRECIP ACRS THE EAST THRU THE AFTN AND HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/WRF. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MDLS.
WPC GUID SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT OF THE GFS/NAM WRF SOLN SO HAVE KEPT
SOME POPS THRU THE PD.

LATER FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF MOVE OVER
THE ERN CONUS. WITH STRONG NWLY FLOW, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHWRS, MAINLY N AND W ON SAT, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST IS IN STORE
THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML BOTH
SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S, DESPITE THE STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN.

A WEAK AND FAST MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SKIRT ACRS SRN CANADA
ON MON AND A WK CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS NEW ENG AND THE NRN REACHES
OF THE REGION ON MON. IT COULD TRIGGER A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, SO WILL JUST CARRY LOW POPS.

TUE THEN LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN. MON AND TUE SHUD
SEE MODERATING TEMPS, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NRML AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EWD AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST BETWEEN ABOUT 1600Z AND 1800Z. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN
AS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT KRDG AND KABE. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO
SOUTH QUADRANT AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH MVFR THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE IFR RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN OFF THE
OCEAN BY A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV AND KACY. BOTH KRDG AND
KABE SHOULD BE OUTSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE NOT
MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU MRNG...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE. LLWS IS PSBL THU MRNG TO MIDDAY DUE TO THE PSBL
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SWLY JET OVERHEAD. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CUD BE A
LULL IN THE PRECIP THU AFTN. MDT CONFIDENCE. STRONG CFP THU NIGHT.

FRI...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH NW WIND BEHIND CFP. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING
OVER THE COLD WATER THE WIND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO THE RESULTING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. A SOUTHERLY WIND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONLY TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MRNG AND
LAST AT LEAST INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT.
GUSTS WILL REACH INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE, WITH A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURG THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT. SCA WILL BE RAISED WITH THIS PKG.

SAT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON SAT AS LINGERING SCA CONDS COULD
REMAIN. IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH WINDS RIGHT AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT, MAINLY ERLY.

SUN...STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILD IN COULD
INCREASE SEAS TO SCA AGAIN MAINLY ERLY AND WINDS CU GUST TO NR SCA
CRITERIA. BOTH WIND AND SEAS SHUD SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. AS IT DOES, LOW PRESSURE, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. A LARGE AND UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PASS OUT TO SEA TODAY LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FAVORING THE EAST TO SOUTH
QUADRANT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ALTOCUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SLOWING APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND 11AM-NOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT
NOON AND 300 PM. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.

SOME FAIRLY DECENT WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. THE 850 HPA
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO WARM FROM AROUND 0C EARLY THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
5C TO 7C BY DARK. REGARDLESS, A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD DRY AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER BELOW 850 HPA AROUND THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WHETHER THE DRY AIR INITIALLY EVAPORATES THE
PRECIPITATION OR WHETHER IT CAUSES IT TO COOL ENOUGH TO FREEZE
REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AT THE START IN BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.

TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S IN OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 8C
TO 10C BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT. THE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY
DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES IN THE OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PD WILL BRING A WMFNT
THRU THE REGION ON THU. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA
BUT ALSO MAKE FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON STRONG SWLY FLOW. TEMPS
WILL MAKE THE 60S WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NEARING 70, IF NOT ABOVE IT.
THE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THRU THE MRNG AND PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO A CHC OF TSTMS AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
CAPE AND UVV AND A 50 KT LLJ TO CONTEND WITH.

THE GUID IS HINTING AT A PRECIP LULL THU AFTN AS THE CDFNT
APPROACHES, PERHAPS IT BECOMES MORE SHOWERY OR WE DO GET DRY
SLOTTED. THEN THE PRECIP WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE CFP OCCURS THU
EVE THRU FRI MRNG.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE CDFNT EXITS ON
FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT DURG THE
MRNG. THE GFS LINGERS PRECIP ACRS THE EAST THRU THE AFTN AND HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/WRF. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MDLS.
WPC GUID SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT OF THE GFS/NAM WRF SOLN SO HAVE KEPT
SOME POPS THRU THE PD.

LATER FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF MOVE OVER
THE ERN CONUS. WITH STRONG NWLY FLOW, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHWRS, MAINLY N AND W ON SAT, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST IS IN STORE
THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML BOTH
SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S, DESPITE THE STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN.

A WEAK AND FAST MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SKIRT ACRS SRN CANADA
ON MON AND A WK CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS NEW ENG AND THE NRN REACHES
OF THE REGION ON MON. IT COULD TRIGGER A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, SO WILL JUST CARRY LOW POPS.

TUE THEN LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN. MON AND TUE SHUD
SEE MODERATING TEMPS, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NRML AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EWD AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST BETWEEN ABOUT 1600Z AND 1800Z. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN
AS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT KRDG AND KABE. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO
SOUTH QUADRANT AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH MVFR THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE IFR RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN OFF THE
OCEAN BY A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV AND KACY. BOTH KRDG AND
KABE SHOULD BE OUTSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE NOT
MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU MRNG...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE. LLWS IS PSBL THU MRNG TO MIDDAY DUE TO THE PSBL
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SWLY JET OVERHEAD. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CUD BE A
LULL IN THE PRECIP THU AFTN. MDT CONFIDENCE. STRONG CFP THU NIGHT.

FRI...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH NW WIND BEHIND CFP. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING
OVER THE COLD WATER THE WIND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO THE RESULTING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. A SOUTHERLY WIND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONLY TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MRNG AND
LAST AT LEAST INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT.
GUSTS WILL REACH INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE, WITH A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURG THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT. SCA WILL BE RAISED WITH THIS PKG.

SAT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON SAT AS LINGERING SCA CONDS COULD
REMAIN. IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH WINDS RIGHT AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT, MAINLY ERLY.

SUN...STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILD IN COULD
INCREASE SEAS TO SCA AGAIN MAINLY ERLY AND WINDS CU GUST TO NR SCA
CRITERIA. BOTH WIND AND SEAS SHUD SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. AS IT DOES, LOW PRESSURE, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. A LARGE AND UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PASS OUT TO SEA TODAY LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FAVORING THE EAST TO SOUTH
QUADRANT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ALTOCUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SLOWING APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND 11AM-NOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT
NOON AND 300 PM. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.

SOME FAIRLY DECENT WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. THE 850 HPA
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO WARM FROM AROUND 0C EARLY THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
5C TO 7C BY DARK. REGARDLESS, A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD DRY AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER BELOW 850 HPA AROUND THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WHETHER THE DRY AIR INITIALLY EVAPORATES THE
PRECIPITATION OR WHETHER IT CAUSES IT TO COOL ENOUGH TO FREEZE
REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AT THE START IN BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.

TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S IN OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 8C
TO 10C BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT. THE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY
DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES IN THE OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PD WILL BRING A WMFNT
THRU THE REGION ON THU. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA
BUT ALSO MAKE FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON STRONG SWLY FLOW. TEMPS
WILL MAKE THE 60S WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NEARING 70, IF NOT ABOVE IT.
THE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THRU THE MRNG AND PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO A CHC OF TSTMS AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
CAPE AND UVV AND A 50 KT LLJ TO CONTEND WITH.

THE GUID IS HINTING AT A PRECIP LULL THU AFTN AS THE CDFNT
APPROACHES, PERHAPS IT BECOMES MORE SHOWERY OR WE DO GET DRY
SLOTTED. THEN THE PRECIP WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE CFP OCCURS THU
EVE THRU FRI MRNG.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE CDFNT EXITS ON
FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT DURG THE
MRNG. THE GFS LINGERS PRECIP ACRS THE EAST THRU THE AFTN AND HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/WRF. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MDLS.
WPC GUID SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT OF THE GFS/NAM WRF SOLN SO HAVE KEPT
SOME POPS THRU THE PD.

LATER FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF MOVE OVER
THE ERN CONUS. WITH STRONG NWLY FLOW, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHWRS, MAINLY N AND W ON SAT, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST IS IN STORE
THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML BOTH
SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S, DESPITE THE STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN.

A WEAK AND FAST MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SKIRT ACRS SRN CANADA
ON MON AND A WK CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS NEW ENG AND THE NRN REACHES
OF THE REGION ON MON. IT COULD TRIGGER A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, SO WILL JUST CARRY LOW POPS.

TUE THEN LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN. MON AND TUE SHUD
SEE MODERATING TEMPS, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NRML AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EWD AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST BETWEEN ABOUT 1600Z AND 1800Z. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN
AS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT KRDG AND KABE. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO
SOUTH QUADRANT AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH MVFR THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE IFR RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN OFF THE
OCEAN BY A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV AND KACY. BOTH KRDG AND
KABE SHOULD BE OUTSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE NOT
MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU MRNG...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE. LLWS IS PSBL THU MRNG TO MIDDAY DUE TO THE PSBL
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SWLY JET OVERHEAD. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CUD BE A
LULL IN THE PRECIP THU AFTN. MDT CONFIDENCE. STRONG CFP THU NIGHT.

FRI...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH NW WIND BEHIND CFP. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING
OVER THE COLD WATER THE WIND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO THE RESULTING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. A SOUTHERLY WIND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONLY TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MRNG AND
LAST AT LEAST INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT.
GUSTS WILL REACH INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE, WITH A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURG THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT. SCA WILL BE RAISED WITH THIS PKG.

SAT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON SAT AS LINGERING SCA CONDS COULD
REMAIN. IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH WINDS RIGHT AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT, MAINLY ERLY.

SUN...STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILD IN COULD
INCREASE SEAS TO SCA AGAIN MAINLY ERLY AND WINDS CU GUST TO NR SCA
CRITERIA. BOTH WIND AND SEAS SHUD SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. AS IT DOES, LOW PRESSURE, WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. A LARGE AND UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PASS OUT TO SEA TODAY LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FAVORING THE EAST TO SOUTH
QUADRANT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ALTOCUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SLOWING APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND 11AM-NOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT
NOON AND 300 PM. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.

SOME FAIRLY DECENT WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT. THE 850 HPA
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO WARM FROM AROUND 0C EARLY THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
5C TO 7C BY DARK. REGARDLESS, A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD DRY AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER BELOW 850 HPA AROUND THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WHETHER THE DRY AIR INITIALLY EVAPORATES THE
PRECIPITATION OR WHETHER IT CAUSES IT TO COOL ENOUGH TO FREEZE
REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AT THE START IN BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.

TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S IN OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 8C
TO 10C BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT. THE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY
DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES IN THE OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PD WILL BRING A WMFNT
THRU THE REGION ON THU. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHCS TO THE AREA
BUT ALSO MAKE FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON STRONG SWLY FLOW. TEMPS
WILL MAKE THE 60S WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NEARING 70, IF NOT ABOVE IT.
THE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THRU THE MRNG AND PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO A CHC OF TSTMS AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
CAPE AND UVV AND A 50 KT LLJ TO CONTEND WITH.

THE GUID IS HINTING AT A PRECIP LULL THU AFTN AS THE CDFNT
APPROACHES, PERHAPS IT BECOMES MORE SHOWERY OR WE DO GET DRY
SLOTTED. THEN THE PRECIP WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE CFP OCCURS THU
EVE THRU FRI MRNG.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE CDFNT EXITS ON
FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT DURG THE
MRNG. THE GFS LINGERS PRECIP ACRS THE EAST THRU THE AFTN AND HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/WRF. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MDLS.
WPC GUID SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT OF THE GFS/NAM WRF SOLN SO HAVE KEPT
SOME POPS THRU THE PD.

LATER FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF MOVE OVER
THE ERN CONUS. WITH STRONG NWLY FLOW, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHWRS, MAINLY N AND W ON SAT, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FCST IS IN STORE
THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML BOTH
SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S, DESPITE THE STRONG LATE
MARCH SUN.

A WEAK AND FAST MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SKIRT ACRS SRN CANADA
ON MON AND A WK CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS NEW ENG AND THE NRN REACHES
OF THE REGION ON MON. IT COULD TRIGGER A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, SO WILL JUST CARRY LOW POPS.

TUE THEN LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN. MON AND TUE SHUD
SEE MODERATING TEMPS, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NRML AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVES EWD AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST BETWEEN ABOUT 1600Z AND 1800Z. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN
AS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT KRDG AND KABE. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO
SOUTH QUADRANT AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH MVFR THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE IFR RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN OFF THE
OCEAN BY A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FOR KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV AND KACY. BOTH KRDG AND
KABE SHOULD BE OUTSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE NOT
MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU MRNG...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE. LLWS IS PSBL THU MRNG TO MIDDAY DUE TO THE PSBL
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SWLY JET OVERHEAD. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CUD BE A
LULL IN THE PRECIP THU AFTN. MDT CONFIDENCE. STRONG CFP THU NIGHT.

FRI...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH NW WIND BEHIND CFP. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING
OVER THE COLD WATER THE WIND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO THE RESULTING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. A SOUTHERLY WIND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONLY TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MRNG AND
LAST AT LEAST INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT.
GUSTS WILL REACH INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE, WITH A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OCCURRING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURG THU
AND INTO THU NIGHT. SCA WILL BE RAISED WITH THIS PKG.

SAT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON SAT AS LINGERING SCA CONDS COULD
REMAIN. IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH WINDS RIGHT AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT, MAINLY ERLY.

SUN...STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILD IN COULD
INCREASE SEAS TO SCA AGAIN MAINLY ERLY AND WINDS CU GUST TO NR SCA
CRITERIA. BOTH WIND AND SEAS SHUD SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



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