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000
FXUS61 KPHI 220827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW MAKES A MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH TODAY AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OFFSHORE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE ITS PUSH TO THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
LOWS NORTHWARD PUSH IS IMPEDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA.

THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN PRETTY TIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA AND IN RETURN, WE WILL HAVE A BLUSTERY KIND OF DAY. CLOUDY
SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL OUT
THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE ALL THAT MUCH AND MOST AREAS WILL
BE LUCKY IF THEY CAN MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER
60S MORE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

IN ADDITION, THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS OFF AND ON TODAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A VORT
MAX LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE TO
THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL STILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS REMAIN
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NOVA
SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE
EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE
00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
/LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE
SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING SHOULD WORK IN
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW
SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS
FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, AFFECTING KACY
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL START TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE COMING
HOURS. HOW MUCH THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND HOW FAR INLAND THEY GET WILL
BE THE QUESTION. PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR INLAND AS KMIV. SHOWERS WILL PUSH INLAND AS WELL AND LOOK TO
IMPACT KILG, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN THIS MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT KMIV BETWEEN 8Z-10Z. SHOULD ANY HOLD TOGETHER AND
APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR, IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO 10Z-12Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AND A BIT
MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN THE
EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO A
GALE WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER BAY REMAINS
UNCHANGED, AS DOES THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED GALE WARNING.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET
ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER DELAWARE
BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO ABOUT
25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 220614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW CAN EASILY BE PICKED OUT ON A RADAR LOOP. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS TO THE EAST, THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AND GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ITS
BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF A
BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
THIS EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR TONIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING TO MVFR AND IN
SOME AREAS, IFR, FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT AT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF
THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS AND THEREFORE IS NOT IN THE LATEST TAFS.

NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING GUSTY AND MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH THE WINDS
INCREASING, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE A BIT AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF
RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST- WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTHWEST.

TODAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE THURSDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS INCREASE TO
AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220117
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO
OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER ACRS THE BOARD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR. LEFT HIGHEST CHCS ACRS THE ERN SHORE OF MD.
STILL EXPECT A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS, BUT UPPER LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY, SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR. NWLY FLOW BECOMING NELY
OVERNIGHT WITH SHWRS MOVG IN. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO ERLY WED AS LOW PRES MOVES NEARBY.
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212219
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO
WANE AS IT LOSES BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA IN NRN NJ AND
SOME LESS ORGANIZED STUFF ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
MOVEMENT IS SLOW. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS
LOCATION AND TRENDS, BUT THIS WAS DIFFICULT, NONETHELESS. ALSO,
HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. WHILE MOST OF THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA IS CLOUDY ERN SECTIONS WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ATTM.

GRIDDED TEMPS WERE A BIT TOO WARM IN THE REAL NEAR TERM AND NEEDED
TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SHUTTING OFF LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS...BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212219
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO
WANE AS IT LOSES BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA IN NRN NJ AND
SOME LESS ORGANIZED STUFF ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
MOVEMENT IS SLOW. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS
LOCATION AND TRENDS, BUT THIS WAS DIFFICULT, NONETHELESS. ALSO,
HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. WHILE MOST OF THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA IS CLOUDY ERN SECTIONS WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ATTM.

GRIDDED TEMPS WERE A BIT TOO WARM IN THE REAL NEAR TERM AND NEEDED
TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SHUTTING OFF LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS...BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER
DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT
LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO WANE AS IT LOSES
BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED
TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
SHUTTING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS...BETTER CHANCE FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED THUNDER TO EXTREME EASTERN NEW JERSEY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS
WE ARE SEEING RAPIDLY FORMING CONVECTION IN EASTERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES. WE HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL
REPORTS WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FREEZING
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 8KFT AND WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ALOFT, THOUGH THE COLDEST PART OF THE COLD POOL IS STILL TO OUR
WEST, LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING AND WHEN YOU ADD IN A WEAK PSEUDO-
SEABREEZE FOR THE SURFACE FORCING AND 500-1000J/KG OF MUCAPE TO
TAP INTO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THE GOOD THING IS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BEING SO CLOSE TO THE COAST, WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT,
IT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS, TO OUR WEST, THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WE
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN
INCREASE TO LIKELY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING INCLUDE A LOWERING OF THE POPS
AND SKY COVER AS THE DRY SLOT HAS REALLY PUNCHED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOME
MORE MODERATE LOOKING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO LOWER NEW YORK STATE AND WITH IT THE BETTER
LIFT AND DYNAMICS THUS ARE DECREASING TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY COVER HAS THE SAME TREND THIS MORNING AS DO
THE POPS BUT WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND NEARING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE A
SELF DESTRUCTING SKY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS
CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON ADDING A THUNDER MENTION. WE CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN INCREASE TO FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING INCLUDE A LOWERING OF THE POPS
AND SKY COVER AS THE DRY SLOT HAS REALLY PUNCHED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOME
MORE MODERATE LOOKING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO LOWER NEW YORK STATE AND WITH IT THE BETTER
LIFT AND DYNAMICS THUS ARE DECREASING TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY COVER HAS THE SAME TREND THIS MORNING AS DO
THE POPS BUT WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND NEARING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE A
SELF DESTRUCTING SKY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS
CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON ADDING A THUNDER MENTION. WE CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN INCREASE TO FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS, WHICH ARE NOW LIFTING TO OUR NORTH OVERALL.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING
TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 211051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS, WHICH ARE NOW LIFTING TO OUR NORTH OVERALL.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING
TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 211051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS, WHICH ARE NOW LIFTING TO OUR NORTH OVERALL.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING
TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 447
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 447







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 447
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 447







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 447
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 447







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 447
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 447







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY
BE SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
THE WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE
00Z/21 ECMWF TEMPS. THE DAYS COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN FCST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURL AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR THE AXIS OF THE WIND SHIFT
FROM NE TO NW NEAR 850 MB AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
850 TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...GALE WATCH ISSUED MOST OF THE WATERS FOR OCNL GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. ONLY
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH AN SCA ISSUANCE ATTM. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL
SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF GALES. AT HIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE
S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY A GALE BY THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 402
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY
BE SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
THE WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE
00Z/21 ECMWF TEMPS. THE DAYS COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN FCST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURL AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR THE AXIS OF THE WIND SHIFT
FROM NE TO NW NEAR 850 MB AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
850 TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...GALE WATCH ISSUED MOST OF THE WATERS FOR OCNL GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. ONLY
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH AN SCA ISSUANCE ATTM. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL
SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF GALES. AT HIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE
S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY A GALE BY THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 402
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF
OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON
FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW.
AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE
INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF
OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON
FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW.
AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE
INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210517
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
117 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SOME
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS COMBINING WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES AND DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD, HOWEVER INTO AN INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. SOME
BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS THOUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. OVERALL, THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
WE CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN FOR THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, WITH A BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWER
AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. WHILE SOME MVFR FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, MAINLY AT KRDG AND KABE, CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
THE COVERAGE AND ACTUAL TIMING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE OVERALL, WITH THE GREATEST MIXING OUT
TOWARDS 20NM. THIS IS WHERE SEAS INCREASED TO 5 FEET EARLIER,
HOWEVER THESE HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE
TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS, NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ATTM. SEAS REMAIN MAINLY AT 4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/HEAVENER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210517
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
117 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SOME
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS COMBINING WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES AND DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD, HOWEVER INTO AN INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. SOME
BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS THOUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. OVERALL, THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
WE CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN FOR THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, WITH A BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWER
AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. WHILE SOME MVFR FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, MAINLY AT KRDG AND KABE, CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
THE COVERAGE AND ACTUAL TIMING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE OVERALL, WITH THE GREATEST MIXING OUT
TOWARDS 20NM. THIS IS WHERE SEAS INCREASED TO 5 FEET EARLIER,
HOWEVER THESE HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE
TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS, NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ATTM. SEAS REMAIN MAINLY AT 4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/HEAVENER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210517
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
117 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SOME
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS COMBINING WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES AND DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD, HOWEVER INTO AN INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. SOME
BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS THOUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. OVERALL, THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
WE CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN FOR THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, WITH A BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWER
AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. WHILE SOME MVFR FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, MAINLY AT KRDG AND KABE, CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
THE COVERAGE AND ACTUAL TIMING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE OVERALL, WITH THE GREATEST MIXING OUT
TOWARDS 20NM. THIS IS WHERE SEAS INCREASED TO 5 FEET EARLIER,
HOWEVER THESE HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE
TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS, NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ATTM. SEAS REMAIN MAINLY AT 4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/HEAVENER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210517
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
117 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SOME
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS COMBINING WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES AND DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD, HOWEVER INTO AN INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. SOME
BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS THOUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. OVERALL, THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
WE CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN FOR THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, WITH A BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWER
AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. WHILE SOME MVFR FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, MAINLY AT KRDG AND KABE, CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
THE COVERAGE AND ACTUAL TIMING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE OVERALL, WITH THE GREATEST MIXING OUT
TOWARDS 20NM. THIS IS WHERE SEAS INCREASED TO 5 FEET EARLIER,
HOWEVER THESE HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE
TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS, NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ATTM. SEAS REMAIN MAINLY AT 4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/HEAVENER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1038 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVEN RESULTING IN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SOME WAA AND THETA-E
ADVECTION IS COMBINING WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
AND DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE ANY
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH MAYBE EVEN JUST SPRINKLES
OCCURRING. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH
AND WEST OF KPHL, HOWEVER IT APPEARS NO RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM.
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THOUGH FOR A TIME WITH SOME GUSTS MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS REMAIN MAINLY AT
4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1038 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVEN RESULTING IN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SOME WAA AND THETA-E
ADVECTION IS COMBINING WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
AND DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE ANY
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH MAYBE EVEN JUST SPRINKLES
OCCURRING. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH
AND WEST OF KPHL, HOWEVER IT APPEARS NO RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM.
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THOUGH FOR A TIME WITH SOME GUSTS MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS REMAIN MAINLY AT
4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201958
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A LOT OF RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
TO OUR WEST TIED TO THE THETA-E SURGE OCCURRING. THE MID-LEVELS
REMAINS VERY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION VALUES ARE STILL
20 TO 25F SO BASICALLY A LOT OF VIRGA IS BEING SEEN. THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE, WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT
LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY
DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY
MVFR DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201958
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A LOT OF RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
TO OUR WEST TIED TO THE THETA-E SURGE OCCURRING. THE MID-LEVELS
REMAINS VERY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION VALUES ARE STILL
20 TO 25F SO BASICALLY A LOT OF VIRGA IS BEING SEEN. THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE, WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT
LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY
DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY
MVFR DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WERE EXPIRED AT 8AM. A HUGE
CHUNK OF OUR REGION SAW SHELTER TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER-
20S TO LOW-30S SO WE WERE ABLE TO END THE GROWING SEASON IN A LOT
OF PLACES. THE COUNTIES AND ZONES BELOW INDICATE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AS OF TODAY.

IN PENNSYLVANIA:
BERKS, BUCKS, CARBON, CHESTER, LEHIGH, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, NORTHAMPTON

IN NEW JERSEY:
ATLANTIC (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), BURLINGTON, HUNTERDON, MERCER,
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), MORRIS, OCEAN
(INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), SOMERSET, SUSSEX, WARREN.

THE UPDATE THIS MORNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID BUMP UP TODAYS
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WE SEE BETTER WAA TAKING SHAPE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 925MB WHERE 8 TO 10C TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE
MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A
ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP
CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME
WAA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY.
WE DID CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WERE EXPIRED AT 8AM. A HUGE
CHUNK OF OUR REGION SAW SHELTER TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER-
20S TO LOW-30S SO WE WERE ABLE TO END THE GROWING SEASON IN A LOT
OF PLACES. THE COUNTIES AND ZONES BELOW INDICATE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AS OF TODAY.

IN PENNSYLVANIA:
BERKS, BUCKS, CARBON, CHESTER, LEHIGH, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, NORTHAMPTON

IN NEW JERSEY:
ATLANTIC (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), BURLINGTON, HUNTERDON, MERCER,
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), MORRIS, OCEAN
(INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), SOMERSET, SUSSEX, WARREN.

THE UPDATE THIS MORNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID BUMP UP TODAYS
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WE SEE BETTER WAA TAKING SHAPE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 925MB WHERE 8 TO 10C TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE
MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A
ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP
CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME
WAA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY.
WE DID CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE






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