Home > Products > State Listing > Delaware Data
Latest:
 AFDPHI |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 301348
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TODAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES OUR REGION SUNDAY, BEFORE STALLING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE /PW OF 1.45
INCHES/ AND ALSO A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
INVERSION NEAR THE MID LEVELS, HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL PROMOTE BETTER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE INVERSION IS HELPING TO KEEP AN AREA OF STRATUS
FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE RIVER NORTH AND WESTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT INTO A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AS HEATING
OCCURS FROM ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD DECK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
NARROW RIBBON OF FOG/STRATUS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE JERSEY SHORE,
HOWEVER THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS TENDING TO SHOW THIS
SHRINKING SOME.

OTHERWISE, OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
LOCATED WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS SOME IMPULSES RIDE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE, SOME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. THIS MAY CLIP OUR
WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SOME LOWERING OF THE TEMPERATURES INITIALLY A LITTLE
WHERE THE STRATUS CURRENTLY IS. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS THEN
BLENDED IN. THE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WERE DELAYED A
LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR KABE AND KRDG
EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE TODAY IS MODERATE, WHILE
FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR
LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. IN GENERAL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PREDICTED WINDS ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST AND WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301348
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TODAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES OUR REGION SUNDAY, BEFORE STALLING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE /PW OF 1.45
INCHES/ AND ALSO A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
INVERSION NEAR THE MID LEVELS, HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL PROMOTE BETTER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE INVERSION IS HELPING TO KEEP AN AREA OF STRATUS
FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE RIVER NORTH AND WESTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT INTO A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AS HEATING
OCCURS FROM ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD DECK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
NARROW RIBBON OF FOG/STRATUS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE JERSEY SHORE,
HOWEVER THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS TENDING TO SHOW THIS
SHRINKING SOME.

OTHERWISE, OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
LOCATED WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS SOME IMPULSES RIDE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE, SOME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. THIS MAY CLIP OUR
WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SOME LOWERING OF THE TEMPERATURES INITIALLY A LITTLE
WHERE THE STRATUS CURRENTLY IS. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS THEN
BLENDED IN. THE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WERE DELAYED A
LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR KABE AND KRDG
EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE TODAY IS MODERATE, WHILE
FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR
LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. IN GENERAL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PREDICTED WINDS ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST AND WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW, BEFORE STALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY. A HIGH
WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MID WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAY AREAS REACHING CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER
LIFT POTENTIAL WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT
WITHING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WE COULD GET
MORE MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG. WE`VE INCLUDED A SHRA GROUP, BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TSRA SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THEIR OCCURRENCE AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
GUST 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY IS
MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE GRIDDED
PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED WINDS
ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW, BEFORE STALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY. A HIGH
WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MID WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAY AREAS REACHING CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER
LIFT POTENTIAL WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT
WITHING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WE COULD GET
MORE MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG. WE`VE INCLUDED A SHRA GROUP, BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TSRA SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THEIR OCCURRENCE AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
GUST 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY IS
MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE GRIDDED
PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED WINDS
ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW, BEFORE STALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY. A HIGH
WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MID WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAY AREAS REACHING CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER
LIFT POTENTIAL WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT
WITHING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WE COULD GET
MORE MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG. WE`VE INCLUDED A SHRA GROUP, BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TSRA SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THEIR OCCURRENCE AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
GUST 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY IS
MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE GRIDDED
PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED WINDS
ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW, BEFORE STALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY. A HIGH
WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MID WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAY AREAS REACHING CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER
LIFT POTENTIAL WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT
WITHING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WE COULD GET
MORE MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG. WE`VE INCLUDED A SHRA GROUP, BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TSRA SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THEIR OCCURRENCE AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
GUST 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY IS
MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE GRIDDED
PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED WINDS
ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW, BEFORE STALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY. A HIGH
WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MID WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAY AREAS REACHING CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER
LIFT POTENTIAL WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT
WITHING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WE COULD GET
MORE MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG. WE`VE INCLUDED A SHRA GROUP, BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TSRA SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THEIR OCCURRENCE AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
GUST 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY IS
MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE GRIDDED
PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED WINDS
ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW, BEFORE STALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY. A HIGH
WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MID WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAY AREAS REACHING CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER
LIFT POTENTIAL WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT
WITHING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WE COULD GET
MORE MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG. WE`VE INCLUDED A SHRA GROUP, BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TSRA SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THEIR OCCURRENCE AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
GUST 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY IS
MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE GRIDDED
PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED WINDS
ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW, BEFORE STALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY. A HIGH
WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MID WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAY AREAS REACHING CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER
LIFT POTENTIAL WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT
WITHING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WE COULD GET
MORE MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG. WE`VE INCLUDED A SHRA GROUP, BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TSRA SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THEIR OCCURRENCE AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
GUST 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY IS
MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE GRIDDED
PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED WINDS
ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW, BEFORE STALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF SHORE LATE MONDAY. A HIGH
WILL BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MID WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WARM/WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAY AREAS REACHING CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER
LIFT POTENTIAL WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH GETS SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHILE THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
WANES OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES. WE KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. THERE ARE A FEW BIG
CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NAM) HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER COLD FRONT AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND REMAIN OVER OUR REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY, WHEN IT
FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVER
ALL BIG PICTURE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ROSSBY WAVE NUMBER
SUGGESTING LESS PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR REGION...THE BIG IMPACT IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NOW LATER (NOW IN THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD). IN ADDITION, WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK
OF THE LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION,
ESPECIALLY DELMARVA, WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR THE DRY
SLOT, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
BE JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THUS, HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
POCONOS/NW NJ THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, THIS ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS INCREASED
MAX T ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE MIN T ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
SHIFTED. STORM MOTIONS ARE MODEST, 20 KT OR LESS, AND THE STALLED
FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STORMS. MEAN CLOUD RH IS
QUITE HIGH, AND THE PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
THE ONLY RISK FACTOR THAT IS MARGINAL IS THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 11K FT, ISN/T VERY DEEP CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW COULD
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS, SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT
WITHING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WE COULD GET
MORE MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG. WE`VE INCLUDED A SHRA GROUP, BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED TSRA SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THEIR OCCURRENCE AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND
GUST 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD. LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY IS
MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE GRIDDED
PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN
OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED WINDS
ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE ESTF UPDATE. NAM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH
UPSTREAM AND DELMARVA CONVECTION AND CORROBORATES CURRENT NO PCPN
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING OUT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LOW CLOUD IMPACT THAN FOG ON THE MAINLAND, SO
NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENT OF FOG PRESENTLY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST AND COOLER THAN EXPECTED SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS IN THE FORMER, THESE DISCREPANCIES SHOULD DAMPEN OUT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY DAY HAVE SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN
RECENT HOURLY MODELING TRENDS OF A GROWING CONSENSUS OF A
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG FORMING TOWARD MORNING THRUT OUR REGION
WITH CIGS TENDING TO BE IFR NEAR/AT THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE INLAND, BUT HIGH AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

REST OF THIS EVENING...VFR NO CIG, MAINLY CIRRUS. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE KACY AS THEY SHOULD BE FIRST TO OBSERVE THE STRATUS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND AVERAGING LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR TO IFR CIG FORMING AND SPREADING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT THE COAST AND LATER
AT NIGHT INLAND. VSBYS BECOMING MVFR, IFR AT KMIV. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT FORM, GREATER CHANCES FOR IFR VSBYS AT MORE RURAL
AIRPORTS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR WITH NO CIG DVLPG BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING FIRST TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A GUSTIER SOUTH WIND. WIND GUSTS
IN FINAL FORECAST GROUP MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF EXCLUSION AT KABE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST...ESP ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON SATURDAY
IS MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT
RISK IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE
GRIDDED PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK
IN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED
WINDS ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE
WATERS. THIS WILL BE TRACKED AND REACCESSED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE ESTF UPDATE. NAM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH
UPSTREAM AND DELMARVA CONVECTION AND CORROBORATES CURRENT NO PCPN
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING OUT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LOW CLOUD IMPACT THAN FOG ON THE MAINLAND, SO
NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENT OF FOG PRESENTLY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST AND COOLER THAN EXPECTED SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS IN THE FORMER, THESE DISCREPANCIES SHOULD DAMPEN OUT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY DAY HAVE SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN
RECENT HOURLY MODELING TRENDS OF A GROWING CONSENSUS OF A
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG FORMING TOWARD MORNING THRUT OUR REGION
WITH CIGS TENDING TO BE IFR NEAR/AT THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE INLAND, BUT HIGH AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

REST OF THIS EVENING...VFR NO CIG, MAINLY CIRRUS. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE KACY AS THEY SHOULD BE FIRST TO OBSERVE THE STRATUS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND AVERAGING LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR TO IFR CIG FORMING AND SPREADING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT THE COAST AND LATER
AT NIGHT INLAND. VSBYS BECOMING MVFR, IFR AT KMIV. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT FORM, GREATER CHANCES FOR IFR VSBYS AT MORE RURAL
AIRPORTS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR WITH NO CIG DVLPG BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING FIRST TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A GUSTIER SOUTH WIND. WIND GUSTS
IN FINAL FORECAST GROUP MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF EXCLUSION AT KABE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST...ESP ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON SATURDAY
IS MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT
RISK IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE
GRIDDED PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK
IN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED
WINDS ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE
WATERS. THIS WILL BE TRACKED AND REACCESSED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE ESTF UPDATE. NAM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH
UPSTREAM AND DELMARVA CONVECTION AND CORROBORATES CURRENT NO PCPN
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING OUT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LOW CLOUD IMPACT THAN FOG ON THE MAINLAND, SO
NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENT OF FOG PRESENTLY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST AND COOLER THAN EXPECTED SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS IN THE FORMER, THESE DISCREPANCIES SHOULD DAMPEN OUT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY DAY HAVE SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN
RECENT HOURLY MODELING TRENDS OF A GROWING CONSENSUS OF A
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG FORMING TOWARD MORNING THRUT OUR REGION
WITH CIGS TENDING TO BE IFR NEAR/AT THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE INLAND, BUT HIGH AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

REST OF THIS EVENING...VFR NO CIG, MAINLY CIRRUS. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE KACY AS THEY SHOULD BE FIRST TO OBSERVE THE STRATUS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND AVERAGING LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR TO IFR CIG FORMING AND SPREADING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT THE COAST AND LATER
AT NIGHT INLAND. VSBYS BECOMING MVFR, IFR AT KMIV. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT FORM, GREATER CHANCES FOR IFR VSBYS AT MORE RURAL
AIRPORTS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR WITH NO CIG DVLPG BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING FIRST TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A GUSTIER SOUTH WIND. WIND GUSTS
IN FINAL FORECAST GROUP MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF EXCLUSION AT KABE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST...ESP ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON SATURDAY
IS MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT
RISK IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE
GRIDDED PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK
IN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED
WINDS ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE
WATERS. THIS WILL BE TRACKED AND REACCESSED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE ESTF UPDATE. NAM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH
UPSTREAM AND DELMARVA CONVECTION AND CORROBORATES CURRENT NO PCPN
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING OUT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LOW CLOUD IMPACT THAN FOG ON THE MAINLAND, SO
NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENT OF FOG PRESENTLY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST AND COOLER THAN EXPECTED SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS IN THE FORMER, THESE DISCREPANCIES SHOULD DAMPEN OUT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY DAY HAVE SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN
RECENT HOURLY MODELING TRENDS OF A GROWING CONSENSUS OF A
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG FORMING TOWARD MORNING THRUT OUR REGION
WITH CIGS TENDING TO BE IFR NEAR/AT THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE INLAND, BUT HIGH AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

REST OF THIS EVENING...VFR NO CIG, MAINLY CIRRUS. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE KACY AS THEY SHOULD BE FIRST TO OBSERVE THE STRATUS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND AVERAGING LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR TO IFR CIG FORMING AND SPREADING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT THE COAST AND LATER
AT NIGHT INLAND. VSBYS BECOMING MVFR, IFR AT KMIV. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT FORM, GREATER CHANCES FOR IFR VSBYS AT MORE RURAL
AIRPORTS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR WITH NO CIG DVLPG BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING FIRST TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A GUSTIER SOUTH WIND. WIND GUSTS
IN FINAL FORECAST GROUP MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF EXCLUSION AT KABE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST...ESP ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON SATURDAY
IS MODERATE WHILE FOR THE DELAWARE COAST THE INITIAL RIP CURRENT
RISK IS LOW. THIS FOLLOWS OUR LONG TIME IN HOUSE PROCEDURE. THE
GRIDDED PROCEDURE SPLITS NEW JERSEY IN HALF WITH THE MODERATE RISK
IN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE PREDICTED
WINDS ARE STRONGER PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER NORTH ALONG ON THE
WATERS. THIS WILL BE TRACKED AND REACCESSED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 292328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS ESTF UPDATE IS MAINLY TO ADJUST CURRENT TEMPS. LATEST HRRR
AND COSPA NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION LEFT AND OBSERVED SFC
BASED CAPES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000J ON OUR SIDE OF THE BAY.
CONVECTION IN VA AND PA HAVE TO TAKE THE LONG ROUTE TO GET INTO
OUR CWA AND NO CHANGE IN MESOSCALE MODELS DISSIPATING THEM BEFORE
THEY COME CLOSE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE BASED ON INCREASING CONSENSUS
OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE OCEAN, WE UPPED SKY COVER EAST LATE
TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN
RECENT HOURLY MODELING TRENDS OF A GROWING CONSENSUS OF A
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG FORMING TOWARD MORNING THRUT OUR REGION
WITH CIGS TENDING TO BE IFR NEAR/AT THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE INLAND, BUT HIGH AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FOR THIS EVENING...VFR NO CIG, MAINLY CIRRUS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
KACY AS THEY SHOULD BE FIRST TO OBSERVE THE STRATUS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR TO IFR CIG FORMING AND SPREADING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT THE COAST AND LATER
AT NIGHT INLAND. VSBYS BECOMING MVFR, IFR AT KMIV. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT FORM, GREATER CHANCES FOR IFR VSBYS AT MORE RURAL
AIRPORTS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR WITH NO CIG DVLPG BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING FIRST TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A GUSTIER SOUTH WIND. WIND GUSTS
IN FINAL FORECAST GROUP MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF EXCLUSION AT KABE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST...ESP ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 292328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS ESTF UPDATE IS MAINLY TO ADJUST CURRENT TEMPS. LATEST HRRR
AND COSPA NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION LEFT AND OBSERVED SFC
BASED CAPES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000J ON OUR SIDE OF THE BAY.
CONVECTION IN VA AND PA HAVE TO TAKE THE LONG ROUTE TO GET INTO
OUR CWA AND NO CHANGE IN MESOSCALE MODELS DISSIPATING THEM BEFORE
THEY COME CLOSE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE BASED ON INCREASING CONSENSUS
OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE OCEAN, WE UPPED SKY COVER EAST LATE
TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN
RECENT HOURLY MODELING TRENDS OF A GROWING CONSENSUS OF A
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG FORMING TOWARD MORNING THRUT OUR REGION
WITH CIGS TENDING TO BE IFR NEAR/AT THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE INLAND, BUT HIGH AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FOR THIS EVENING...VFR NO CIG, MAINLY CIRRUS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
KACY AS THEY SHOULD BE FIRST TO OBSERVE THE STRATUS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR TO IFR CIG FORMING AND SPREADING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT THE COAST AND LATER
AT NIGHT INLAND. VSBYS BECOMING MVFR, IFR AT KMIV. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT FORM, GREATER CHANCES FOR IFR VSBYS AT MORE RURAL
AIRPORTS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR WITH NO CIG DVLPG BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z. VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING FIRST TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A GUSTIER SOUTH WIND. WIND GUSTS
IN FINAL FORECAST GROUP MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF EXCLUSION AT KABE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST...ESP ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 292208
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS ESTF UPDATE IS MAINLY TO ADJUST CURRENT TEMPS. LATEST HRRR
AND COSPA NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION LEFT AND OBSERVED SFC
BASED CAPES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000J ON OUR SIDE OF THE BAY.
CONVECTION IN VA AND PA HAVE TO TAKE THE LONG ROUTE TO GET INTO
OUR CWA AND NO CHANGE IN MESOSCALE MODELS DISSIPATING THEM BEFORE
THEY COME CLOSE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE BASED ON INCREASING CONSENSUS
OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE OCEAN, WE UPPED SKY COVER EAST LATE
TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 8
KNOT RANGE.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START, BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS FARTHER INLAND AS WELL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR TAF SITES
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOR MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS, WE HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS FOR ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR DURING THE DAYTIME. SOME ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE, GUSTING AT
TIMES BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLINE
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 292208
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS ESTF UPDATE IS MAINLY TO ADJUST CURRENT TEMPS. LATEST HRRR
AND COSPA NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION LEFT AND OBSERVED SFC
BASED CAPES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000J ON OUR SIDE OF THE BAY.
CONVECTION IN VA AND PA HAVE TO TAKE THE LONG ROUTE TO GET INTO
OUR CWA AND NO CHANGE IN MESOSCALE MODELS DISSIPATING THEM BEFORE
THEY COME CLOSE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE BASED ON INCREASING CONSENSUS
OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE OCEAN, WE UPPED SKY COVER EAST LATE
TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 8
KNOT RANGE.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START, BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS FARTHER INLAND AS WELL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR TAF SITES
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOR MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS, WE HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS FOR ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR DURING THE DAYTIME. SOME ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE, GUSTING AT
TIMES BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLINE
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION, LAPS DATA SHOWS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES, AND THIS IS WHERE WE CONTINUE
SOME LOWER POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF LATE-DAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND

THROUGH THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 8
KNOT RANGE.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START, BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS FARTHER INLAND AS WELL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR TAF SITES
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOR MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS, WE HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS FOR ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR DURING THE DAYTIME. SOME ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE, GUSTING AT
TIMES BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLINE
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION, LAPS DATA SHOWS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES, AND THIS IS WHERE WE CONTINUE
SOME LOWER POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF LATE-DAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND

THROUGH THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 8
KNOT RANGE.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START, BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS FARTHER INLAND AS WELL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR TAF SITES
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOR MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS, WE HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS FOR ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR DURING THE DAYTIME. SOME ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE, GUSTING AT
TIMES BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLINE
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION, LAPS DATA SHOWS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES, AND THIS IS WHERE WE CONTINUE
SOME LOWER POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF LATE-DAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO
WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT
BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND

THROUGH THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 8
KNOT RANGE.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START, BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS FARTHER INLAND AS WELL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR TAF SITES
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOR MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS, WE HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS FOR ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR DURING THE DAYTIME. SOME ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE, GUSTING AT
TIMES BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE
COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLINE
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291918
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
...AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
...BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291918
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN
THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH
WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS...
W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE
SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR
IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON
...AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE
IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS
TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
...BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP
ACY AND MIV.

SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS...
OTHERWISE VFR.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG.

TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291608
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1207P
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291608
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1207P
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291608
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1207P
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291259
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF:

A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REMAINING
HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED
TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA. DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER
IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING, THE HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES CAROLINE AND
TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE.

I MAY RAISE TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST OVER THE
INTERIOR TODAY.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 859A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 859A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 859A
RIP CURRENTS...859A
CLIMATE...859A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO NOSE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WITH THE DRIER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, SHOULD HAVE A COMFORTABLE DAY ON TAP
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME QPF, FIRST WITH LINGERING CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING (WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN NORTHEASTERN MD
OVERNIGHT), AND THEN WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, SO ANY CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION DISSIPATES, WHICH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THAT BEING
SAID, MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER, AS IT DOES APPEAR THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (IF THE INVERSION DISSIPATES) FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES, AND DRIER AIR IS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
OVER THE REGION.

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO
DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY
TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS (AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY NOW, TO EASTERLY BY 15Z,
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 10KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO NOSE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WITH THE DRIER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, SHOULD HAVE A COMFORTABLE DAY ON TAP
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME QPF, FIRST WITH LINGERING CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING (WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN NORTHEASTERN MD
OVERNIGHT), AND THEN WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, SO ANY CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION DISSIPATES, WHICH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THAT BEING
SAID, MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER, AS IT DOES APPEAR THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (IF THE INVERSION DISSIPATES) FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES, AND DRIER AIR IS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
OVER THE REGION.

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO
DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY
TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS (AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY NOW, TO EASTERLY BY 15Z,
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 10KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS IN MARYLAND. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED
CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AT LEAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NJ AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AS THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF DEW POINTS
DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITHIN ABOUT 2 HOURS OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY VERY CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY, AS SUCH
THEY MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT AS DEPICTED IN
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS
APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUB VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY FLOW SHOULD
TURN NE TO E ALONG THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS IN MARYLAND. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED
CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AT LEAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NJ AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AS THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF DEW POINTS
DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITHIN ABOUT 2 HOURS OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY VERY CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY, AS SUCH
THEY MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT AS DEPICTED IN
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS
APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUB VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY FLOW SHOULD
TURN NE TO E ALONG THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITHIN THE PAST TWO
HOURS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SOME NEW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT
OVER NORTHEAST MARYLAND, BUT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RECENT HRRR
RUNS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH (SPEEDS VERY LIGHT) HIGHLIGHTS THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY PROVIDES
BEST IDENTIFICATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AREA WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. PATCHY
FOG IS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY FLOW SHOULD
TURN NE TO E ALONG THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITHIN THE PAST TWO
HOURS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SOME NEW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT
OVER NORTHEAST MARYLAND, BUT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RECENT HRRR
RUNS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH (SPEEDS VERY LIGHT) HIGHLIGHTS THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY PROVIDES
BEST IDENTIFICATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AREA WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. PATCHY
FOG IS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY FLOW SHOULD
TURN NE TO E ALONG THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 353 WE WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE NW NJ COUNTIES PER RECENT
COLLAB WITH SPC. CHECKING ON MORE DATA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND
THEN REWORKING GRIDS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SMALL SO FAR WITH MOSTLY HYDRO
ISSUES IN COASTAL CENTRAL NJ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT CHOKES OFF
POTENTIAL EXCEPT MAYBE COASTAL NJ.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY SE OF I-95. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
TIMING ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG
ROUGHLY 21Z- 24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LESS THAN IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY
FLOW TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN
THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 344
SHORT TERM...DRAG 344
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 353 WE WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE NW NJ COUNTIES PER RECENT
COLLAB WITH SPC. CHECKING ON MORE DATA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND
THEN REWORKING GRIDS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SMALL SO FAR WITH MOSTLY HYDRO
ISSUES IN COASTAL CENTRAL NJ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT CHOKES OFF
POTENTIAL EXCEPT MAYBE COASTAL NJ.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY SE OF I-95. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
TIMING ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG
ROUGHLY 21Z- 24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LESS THAN IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY
FLOW TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN
THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 344
SHORT TERM...DRAG 344
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 353 WE WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE NW NJ COUNTIES PER RECENT
COLLAB WITH SPC. CHECKING ON MORE DATA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND
THEN REWORKING GRIDS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SMALL SO FAR WITH MOSTLY HYDRO
ISSUES IN COASTAL CENTRAL NJ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT CHOKES OFF
POTENTIAL EXCEPT MAYBE COASTAL NJ.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY SE OF I-95. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
TIMING ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG
ROUGHLY 21Z- 24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LESS THAN IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY
FLOW TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN
THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 344
SHORT TERM...DRAG 344
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 353 WE WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE NW NJ COUNTIES PER RECENT
COLLAB WITH SPC. CHECKING ON MORE DATA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND
THEN REWORKING GRIDS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SMALL SO FAR WITH MOSTLY HYDRO
ISSUES IN COASTAL CENTRAL NJ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT CHOKES OFF
POTENTIAL EXCEPT MAYBE COASTAL NJ.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY SE OF I-95. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
TIMING ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG
ROUGHLY 21Z- 24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LESS THAN IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY
FLOW TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN
THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 344
SHORT TERM...DRAG 344
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG  156P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 156P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 156P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
RIP CURRENTS...156P
CLIMATE...156P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG  156P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 156P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 156P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
RIP CURRENTS...156P
CLIMATE...156P



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG  156P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 156P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 156P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
RIP CURRENTS...156P
CLIMATE...156P



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG  156P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 156P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 156P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
RIP CURRENTS...156P
CLIMATE...156P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281634
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND
WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z, MAINY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1234
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1234
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
RIP CURRENTS...1234
CLIMATE...1234




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281634
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND
WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z, MAINY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1234
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1234
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
RIP CURRENTS...1234
CLIMATE...1234



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281634
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND
WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z, MAINY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1234
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1234
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
RIP CURRENTS...1234
CLIMATE...1234




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1136 AM: A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL POST FOR NNJ AROUND 1155AM FOR THE
FAR NNJ COUNTIES.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO OTHER AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND
KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1148A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1148A
CLIMATE...1148A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1136 AM: A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL POST FOR NNJ AROUND 1155AM FOR THE
FAR NNJ COUNTIES.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO OTHER AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND
KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1148A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1148A
CLIMATE...1148A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1112
CLIMATE...1112



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1112
CLIMATE...1112



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1112
CLIMATE...1112



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1112
CLIMATE...1112



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities