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000
FXUS61 KPHI 020301
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE CONVERTED ALL WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES WITH THIS UPDATE AND
CONTINUE ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS CONCLUDED THIS EVENING, THOUGH
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RE-FIRING OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
BY DAYBREAK ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND HOMES AND BUSINESSES WITHOUT POWER IN
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COUNTIES ADDING TO
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICING THIS EVENING. AS WAS STATED EARLIER,
FORTUNATELY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP TO COMBAT ANOTHER FURTHER OUTAGES.

OVERALL WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK FROM THE
PHILLY METRO AREA SOUTHWARD...IT`LL TAKE A BIT LONGER NORTH AND
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION NOW THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020301
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE CONVERTED ALL WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES WITH THIS UPDATE AND
CONTINUE ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS CONCLUDED THIS EVENING, THOUGH
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RE-FIRING OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
BY DAYBREAK ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND HOMES AND BUSINESSES WITHOUT POWER IN
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COUNTIES ADDING TO
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICING THIS EVENING. AS WAS STATED EARLIER,
FORTUNATELY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP TO COMBAT ANOTHER FURTHER OUTAGES.

OVERALL WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK FROM THE
PHILLY METRO AREA SOUTHWARD...IT`LL TAKE A BIT LONGER NORTH AND
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION NOW THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020301
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE CONVERTED ALL WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES WITH THIS UPDATE AND
CONTINUE ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS CONCLUDED THIS EVENING, THOUGH
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RE-FIRING OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
BY DAYBREAK ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND HOMES AND BUSINESSES WITHOUT POWER IN
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COUNTIES ADDING TO
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICING THIS EVENING. AS WAS STATED EARLIER,
FORTUNATELY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP TO COMBAT ANOTHER FURTHER OUTAGES.

OVERALL WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK FROM THE
PHILLY METRO AREA SOUTHWARD...IT`LL TAKE A BIT LONGER NORTH AND
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION NOW THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020301
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE CONVERTED ALL WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES WITH THIS UPDATE AND
CONTINUE ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS CONCLUDED THIS EVENING, THOUGH
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RE-FIRING OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
BY DAYBREAK ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND HOMES AND BUSINESSES WITHOUT POWER IN
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COUNTIES ADDING TO
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ICING THIS EVENING. AS WAS STATED EARLIER,
FORTUNATELY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP TO COMBAT ANOTHER FURTHER OUTAGES.

OVERALL WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK FROM THE
PHILLY METRO AREA SOUTHWARD...IT`LL TAKE A BIT LONGER NORTH AND
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION NOW THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE TRANSITION LINE FROM SNOW TO RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN STEADILY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR, HOWEVER, THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FORMED ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND HAS
NEARLY STALLED THE NORTHWARD WAA PUSH, AS MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE HEADS TOWARDS THE EAST. CURRENTLY THE WARM FRONT IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF AN ABE- SMQ LINE AND IT MAY NOT GO MUCH FARTHER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A BETTER DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AS THE THETA-E SURGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

ALL THAT BEING SAID WE ARE STILL SEEING A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. SPIA POWER GRID
PARAMETERS (1-2) INDICATE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WITH THE AMOUNT
OF ICE ACCREATION BUT LUCKILY WE DO NOT HAVE STRONGER WINDS TO
CREATE MORE HAVOC ON THE UTILITIES. THOUGH IF WE HAD SOME STRONGER
WINDS WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE WARMER THAN WE CURRENTLY ARE AND
ANY FURTHER ICING WOULD CEASE TO BE AN ISSUE.

WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW. MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL THE TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS RDG AT THIS POINT THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE TRANSITION LINE FROM SNOW TO RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN STEADILY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR, HOWEVER, THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FORMED ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND HAS
NEARLY STALLED THE NORTHWARD WAA PUSH, AS MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE HEADS TOWARDS THE EAST. CURRENTLY THE WARM FRONT IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF AN ABE- SMQ LINE AND IT MAY NOT GO MUCH FARTHER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A BETTER DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AS THE THETA-E SURGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

ALL THAT BEING SAID WE ARE STILL SEEING A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. SPIA POWER GRID
PARAMETERS (1-2) INDICATE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WITH THE AMOUNT
OF ICE ACCREATION BUT LUCKILY WE DO NOT HAVE STRONGER WINDS TO
CREATE MORE HAVOC ON THE UTILITIES. THOUGH IF WE HAD SOME STRONGER
WINDS WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE WARMER THAN WE CURRENTLY ARE AND
ANY FURTHER ICING WOULD CEASE TO BE AN ISSUE.

WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW. MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL THE TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS RDG AT THIS POINT THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE TRANSITION LINE FROM SNOW TO RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN STEADILY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR, HOWEVER, THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FORMED ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND HAS
NEARLY STALLED THE NORTHWARD WAA PUSH, AS MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE HEADS TOWARDS THE EAST. CURRENTLY THE WARM FRONT IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF AN ABE- SMQ LINE AND IT MAY NOT GO MUCH FARTHER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A BETTER DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AS THE THETA-E SURGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

ALL THAT BEING SAID WE ARE STILL SEEING A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. SPIA POWER GRID
PARAMETERS (1-2) INDICATE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WITH THE AMOUNT
OF ICE ACCREATION BUT LUCKILY WE DO NOT HAVE STRONGER WINDS TO
CREATE MORE HAVOC ON THE UTILITIES. THOUGH IF WE HAD SOME STRONGER
WINDS WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE WARMER THAN WE CURRENTLY ARE AND
ANY FURTHER ICING WOULD CEASE TO BE AN ISSUE.

WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW. MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL THE TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS RDG AT THIS POINT THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE TRANSITION LINE FROM SNOW TO RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN STEADILY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR, HOWEVER, THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FORMED ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND HAS
NEARLY STALLED THE NORTHWARD WAA PUSH, AS MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE HEADS TOWARDS THE EAST. CURRENTLY THE WARM FRONT IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF AN ABE- SMQ LINE AND IT MAY NOT GO MUCH FARTHER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A BETTER DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AS THE THETA-E SURGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

ALL THAT BEING SAID WE ARE STILL SEEING A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. SPIA POWER GRID
PARAMETERS (1-2) INDICATE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WITH THE AMOUNT
OF ICE ACCREATION BUT LUCKILY WE DO NOT HAVE STRONGER WINDS TO
CREATE MORE HAVOC ON THE UTILITIES. THOUGH IF WE HAD SOME STRONGER
WINDS WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE WARMER THAN WE CURRENTLY ARE AND
ANY FURTHER ICING WOULD CEASE TO BE AN ISSUE.

WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW. MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL THE TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS RDG AT THIS POINT THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE TRANSITION LINE FROM SNOW TO RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN STEADILY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR, HOWEVER, THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FORMED ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND HAS
NEARLY STALLED THE NORTHWARD WAA PUSH, AS MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE HEADS TOWARDS THE EAST. CURRENTLY THE WARM FRONT IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF AN ABE- SMQ LINE AND IT MAY NOT GO MUCH FARTHER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A BETTER DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AS THE THETA-E SURGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

ALL THAT BEING SAID WE ARE STILL SEEING A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. SPIA POWER GRID
PARAMETERS (1-2) INDICATE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WITH THE AMOUNT
OF ICE ACCREATION BUT LUCKILY WE DO NOT HAVE STRONGER WINDS TO
CREATE MORE HAVOC ON THE UTILITIES. THOUGH IF WE HAD SOME STRONGER
WINDS WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE WARMER THAN WE CURRENTLY ARE AND
ANY FURTHER ICING WOULD CEASE TO BE AN ISSUE.

WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW. MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS PRESENT AT OUR TERMINALS AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL THE TERMINALS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS RDG AT THIS POINT THOUGH THERE IS
STILL AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SO NOT THINKING
WE COMPLETELY DRY OUT THIS EVENING...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE THE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 012049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SNOW N/W AND
A MIX OF P-TYPES ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VSBYS VARIABLE WITH
NUMEROUS P-TYPES/INTENSITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MOSTLY MVFR OR IFR
HOWEVER. P-TYPE MOSTLY SNOW FAR NORTH AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY. PCPN WILL BE
COMING TO AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN MANY AREAS. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 012049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SNOW N/W AND
A MIX OF P-TYPES ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VSBYS VARIABLE WITH
NUMEROUS P-TYPES/INTENSITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MOSTLY MVFR OR IFR
HOWEVER. P-TYPE MOSTLY SNOW FAR NORTH AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY. PCPN WILL BE
COMING TO AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN MANY AREAS. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 012049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SNOW N/W AND
A MIX OF P-TYPES ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VSBYS VARIABLE WITH
NUMEROUS P-TYPES/INTENSITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MOSTLY MVFR OR IFR
HOWEVER. P-TYPE MOSTLY SNOW FAR NORTH AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY. PCPN WILL BE
COMING TO AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN MANY AREAS. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 012049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SNOW N/W AND
A MIX OF P-TYPES ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VSBYS VARIABLE WITH
NUMEROUS P-TYPES/INTENSITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MOSTLY MVFR OR IFR
HOWEVER. P-TYPE MOSTLY SNOW FAR NORTH AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY. PCPN WILL BE
COMING TO AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN MANY AREAS. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 012049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SNOW N/W AND
A MIX OF P-TYPES ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THIS EVENING THEN RISE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST LATE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BY 12 MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS 1030+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY THE EARLY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH, IF THICK ENOUGH, MAY
CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM. MIN
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE A FRESH
SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND TO AROUND 20F IN THE URBAN
AND COASTAL LOCALES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS (INCLUDING THE ONE TODAY) WHERE THE LOW CUTS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT IS A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR INFILTRATES THE
AREA. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
TODAY`S EVENT, INCLUDING AN IMPRESSIVE 70-80 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO THE COLD
AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND DRY RELATIVE
TO TODAY`S EVENT. ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVIER WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM
WINTRY PRECIP TO RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR. THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL
KEEP ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST ICING POTENTIAL ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HILLY TERRAIN WOULD HELP TRAP THE COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

EXPECT ONLY ONE PTYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY- RAIN. THE RAIN
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM
UNDER A HALF INCH (12Z NAM AND A FEW 09Z SREF MEMBERS) TO AROUND
TWO INCHES IN THE WETTEST SREF MEMBERS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF
CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NE PA AND NW NJ
WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOST RESISTANT TO ERODING. FORECAST
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
LOWER DELMARVA.

COMPLEX FORECAST SHAPING UP DURING THE WED NGT AND THU TIME
FRAME. NORTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LEADS TO A COLD FROPA ON WED
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BUT THE FRONT
WILL STALL INVOF THE MID-ATL AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO IT... AND WITH ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRES TRAVERSING THE FRONT. BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE ENTER
THE D+4 TIME FRAME... WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE, AND QPF.

THE GFS, EURO, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. BUT WHERE
THE FRONT ULTIMATELY STALLS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT...WITH A FRONTAL PLACEMENT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TAP
GULF MOIST...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD LEAD TO A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
PRECIP. THIS IS REFLECTED IN RUN-TO-RUN OSCILLATIONS OF MODEL QPF.
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS VERIFY /AND KEEP IN MIND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY/...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW-LEVELS WOULD LEAD
TO A ROBUST OVERRUNNING REGIME SETTING OVER THE MID-ATL WED NGT
AND THU...FED BY GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTED BY THE LF QUADRANT
OF A VIGOROUS 250 HPA JET. STAY TUNED.

THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE THU
OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TIMING...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VSBYS VARIABLE WITH
NUMEROUS P-TYPES/INTENSITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MOSTLY MVFR OR IFR
HOWEVER. P-TYPE MOSTLY SNOW FAR NORTH AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY. PCPN WILL BE
COMING TO AND END AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MOSTLY AROUND DAWN MANY AREAS. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W OR NW 10-15KT WITH G25KT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
LATE IN THE AFTN WHEN A MIX OF SN/PL MOVE IN. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FZRA AND THEN RA DURING THE EVE FOR THE I-
95 TERMINALS AND FARTHER S/E. A WINTRY MIX (PL/FZRA) MAY PERSIST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR RDG/ABE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP BY EVE WITH A
STRONG SW LLVL JET DEVELOPING ABOVE A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN STEADY RA
IS EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER IN THE MRNG AND
AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RA MAY CHANGE TO SN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IF SN DOES DEVELOP BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY NW
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. SCA WINDS DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
PRESENT SCA FLAG ISSUED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW/SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. PCPN DIMINISHES BEFORE DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME SO THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER (ESPECIALLY FOR THE DE BAY).

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE WARMER AIR MOVING ATOP THE COLD
WATERS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN THESE
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER TODAY`S WINTRY MIX, THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MIDWEEK EVENT APPEARS TO START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN QPF
AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM UNDER A HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN
THE WETTEST RUNS. WE FOLLOWED WPC QPF CLOSELY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN FROZEN AND FREEZING PCPN CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. WSW FLAGS WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED FOE THE ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...PO

SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN FROZEN AND FREEZING PCPN CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. WSW FLAGS WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED FOE THE ESTF UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...PO

SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011513
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...MAINLY SNOW ATTM.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN FROM S TO
N TDY. WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE DELMARVA TO WARNING WHERE QPF
AMTS AND TEMP PROFILES ARE NOW POINTING TO MORE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL . PRODUCTS TO BE UPDATED IN A FEW MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011513
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...MAINLY SNOW ATTM.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN FROM S TO
N TDY. WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE DELMARVA TO WARNING WHERE QPF
AMTS AND TEMP PROFILES ARE NOW POINTING TO MORE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL . PRODUCTS TO BE UPDATED IN A FEW MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-025-
     026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL BEGIN
AS SNOW BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET SOON AFTER. WE MAY HAVE TO
RECONSIDER P-TYPE QPF AMTS OVER THE DELMARVA FOR POSSIBLE WSW
UPGRADE.

LOW/MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LIFT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT
AS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295
CORRIDOR. FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-
     022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL BEGIN
AS SNOW BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET SOON AFTER. WE MAY HAVE TO
RECONSIDER P-TYPE QPF AMTS OVER THE DELMARVA FOR POSSIBLE WSW
UPGRADE.

LOW/MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LIFT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT
AS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295
CORRIDOR. FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-
     022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL BEGIN
AS SNOW BUT WILL CHANGE TO SLEET SOON AFTER. WE MAY HAVE TO
RECONSIDER P-TYPE QPF AMTS OVER THE DELMARVA FOR POSSIBLE WSW
UPGRADE.

LOW/MID- LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LIFT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT
AS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295
CORRIDOR. FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-
     022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010838
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER STARTS THE DAY OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND THEN OUT TO SEA TODAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
GO DOWNHILL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MOVES IN THROUGH
THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. WE ARE
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295 CORRIDOR.
FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE
INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010838
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER STARTS THE DAY OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND THEN OUT TO SEA TODAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
GO DOWNHILL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MOVES IN THROUGH
THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. WE ARE
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295 CORRIDOR.
FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE
INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010838
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER STARTS THE DAY OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND THEN OUT TO SEA TODAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
GO DOWNHILL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MOVES IN THROUGH
THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. WE ARE
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295 CORRIDOR.
FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE
INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NJ AND ERN
PA RESULTING IN CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO/THRU THE TEENS...REACHING
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME COLDER LOCATIONS. HWVR...HI/MID-LVL CLOUDS
ARE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD AND HAVE REACHED WRN PA AS OF
0200Z OR 900 PM. CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR FCST AREA STARTING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SNOW LAGS BEHIND THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING WRN OH
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED CI/CS
THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE
GFS/LAMP LINES...SO LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST
AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM
TIMELINE FOR THAT CHANGE-OVER...WHICH MAY OCCUR SOMEWHAT SOONER AT
MIV/ACY AND LATER OR NOT AT ALL AT ABE/RDG. WINDS LOOK LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD... VARIABLE DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUB-SCA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS MOST OF
THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NJ AND ERN
PA RESULTING IN CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO/THRU THE TEENS...REACHING
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME COLDER LOCATIONS. HWVR...HI/MID-LVL CLOUDS
ARE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD AND HAVE REACHED WRN PA AS OF
0200Z OR 900 PM. CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR FCST AREA STARTING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SNOW LAGS BEHIND THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING WRN OH
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED CI/CS
THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE
GFS/LAMP LINES...SO LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST
AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM
TIMELINE FOR THAT CHANGE-OVER...WHICH MAY OCCUR SOMEWHAT SOONER AT
MIV/ACY AND LATER OR NOT AT ALL AT ABE/RDG. WINDS LOOK LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD... VARIABLE DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUB-SCA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS MOST OF
THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280904
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280904
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG



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