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000
FXUS61 KPHI 291326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WINDS
REMAIN NORTHERLY AT THIS TIME, BUT ANTICIPATE THE SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY RELATIVELY SOON.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD REACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES
OF CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

THE WIND WILL START FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION
IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH TODAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A LARGE H5
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SAT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. AS
SWLY FLOW INCREASES, SUNDAY WILL BE HOTTER, EVEN MORE HUMID, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

SEVERAL S/WVS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION AND
PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE ON SUN. HOWEVER, EACH MDL HAS A
DIFFERING SOLN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHCS STILL REMAIN N AND
W. THE GFS IS WETTEST, THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER AND A TAD
DRIER. THE CMC IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM/WRF IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS.

THE NAM/WRF AND CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT
TO MAKE SUN NIGHT THE WETTEST PERIOD. HOWEVER PRECIP PLACEMENT IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION WITH BOTH THE CMC AND GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP TO THE OF OUR AREA OR OVER THE NRN EXTENT.

THE GFS IS THEN FAIRLY DRY ON MON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
LATE. THE CMC IS COMPLETELY DRY ON MON AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH
WETTER LATE, BUT STILL IMPLIES ITS MOSTLY LATER DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSRA. BUT SOLNS RUN FROM NO PRECIP TO CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH. SO
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS.

MDLS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ONCE ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ENDS,
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

THEN PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE WITH CFP. THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED AND THU MARKING A RETURN TO DRY WX.

TEMPS WILL START NR NRML AND THEN BE ABV NRML (CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES) FOR MANY AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE PD, BEFORE RETURNING TO NR
NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD. SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE LABOR DAY WKND HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 3 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY, GENLY AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W OF PHL WHICH
CUD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL EVERYWHERE
ON MON, WITH LESS POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES
ON DELAWARE BAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL APPROACH
MON INTO TUE. IT IS PSBL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THAT WE COULD
REACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME LATER SUN INTO MON AS SEAS
INCREASE IN THE SWLY FLOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WINDS
REMAIN NORTHERLY AT THIS TIME, BUT ANTICIPATE THE SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY RELATIVELY SOON.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD REACH THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES
OF CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

THE WIND WILL START FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION
IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH TODAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A LARGE H5
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SAT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. AS
SWLY FLOW INCREASES, SUNDAY WILL BE HOTTER, EVEN MORE HUMID, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

SEVERAL S/WVS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION AND
PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE ON SUN. HOWEVER, EACH MDL HAS A
DIFFERING SOLN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHCS STILL REMAIN N AND
W. THE GFS IS WETTEST, THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER AND A TAD
DRIER. THE CMC IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM/WRF IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS.

THE NAM/WRF AND CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT
TO MAKE SUN NIGHT THE WETTEST PERIOD. HOWEVER PRECIP PLACEMENT IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION WITH BOTH THE CMC AND GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP TO THE OF OUR AREA OR OVER THE NRN EXTENT.

THE GFS IS THEN FAIRLY DRY ON MON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
LATE. THE CMC IS COMPLETELY DRY ON MON AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH
WETTER LATE, BUT STILL IMPLIES ITS MOSTLY LATER DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSRA. BUT SOLNS RUN FROM NO PRECIP TO CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH. SO
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS.

MDLS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ONCE ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ENDS,
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

THEN PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE WITH CFP. THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED AND THU MARKING A RETURN TO DRY WX.

TEMPS WILL START NR NRML AND THEN BE ABV NRML (CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES) FOR MANY AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE PD, BEFORE RETURNING TO NR
NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD. SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE LABOR DAY WKND HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 3 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY, GENLY AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W OF PHL WHICH
CUD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL EVERYWHERE
ON MON, WITH LESS POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES
ON DELAWARE BAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL APPROACH
MON INTO TUE. IT IS PSBL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THAT WE COULD
REACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME LATER SUN INTO MON AS SEAS
INCREASE IN THE SWLY FLOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT
SHOULD REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES
OF CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

THE WIND WILL START FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION
IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH TODAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A LARGE H5
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SAT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. AS
SWLY FLOW INCREASES, SUNDAY WILL BE HOTTER, EVEN MORE HUMID, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

SEVERAL S/WVS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION AND
PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE ON SUN. HOWEVER, EACH MDL HAS A
DIFFERING SOLN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHCS STILL REMAIN N AND
W. THE GFS IS WETTEST, THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER AND A TAD
DRIER. THE CMC IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM/WRF IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS.

THE NAM/WRF AND CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT
TO MAKE SUN NIGHT THE WETTEST PERIOD. HOWEVER PRECIP PLACEMENT IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION WITH BOTH THE CMC AND GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP TO THE OF OUR AREA OR OVER THE NRN EXTENT.

THE GFS IS THEN FAIRLY DRY ON MON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
LATE. THE CMC IS COMPLETELY DRY ON MON AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH
WETTER LATE, BUT STILL IMPLIES ITS MOSTLY LATER DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSRA. BUT SOLNS RUN FROM NO PRECIP TO CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH. SO
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS.

MDLS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ONCE ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ENDS,
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

THEN PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE WITH CFP. THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED AND THU MARKING A RETURN TO DRY WX.

TEMPS WILL START NR NRML AND THEN BE ABV NRML (CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES) FOR MANY AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE PD, BEFORE RETURNING TO NR
NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD. SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE LABOR DAY WKND HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 3 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY, GENLY AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W OF PHL WHICH
CUD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL EVERYWHERE
ON MON, WITH LESS POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES
ON DELAWARE BAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL APPROACH
MON INTO TUE. IT IS PSBL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THAT WE COULD
REACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME LATER SUN INTO MON AS SEAS
INCREASE IN THE SWLY FLOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT
SHOULD REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES
OF CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

THE WIND WILL START FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION
IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH TODAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A LARGE H5
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SAT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. AS
SWLY FLOW INCREASES, SUNDAY WILL BE HOTTER, EVEN MORE HUMID, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

SEVERAL S/WVS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION AND
PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE ON SUN. HOWEVER, EACH MDL HAS A
DIFFERING SOLN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHCS STILL REMAIN N AND
W. THE GFS IS WETTEST, THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER AND A TAD
DRIER. THE CMC IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM/WRF IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS.

THE NAM/WRF AND CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT
TO MAKE SUN NIGHT THE WETTEST PERIOD. HOWEVER PRECIP PLACEMENT IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION WITH BOTH THE CMC AND GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP TO THE OF OUR AREA OR OVER THE NRN EXTENT.

THE GFS IS THEN FAIRLY DRY ON MON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
LATE. THE CMC IS COMPLETELY DRY ON MON AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH
WETTER LATE, BUT STILL IMPLIES ITS MOSTLY LATER DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSRA. BUT SOLNS RUN FROM NO PRECIP TO CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH. SO
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS.

MDLS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ONCE ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ENDS,
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

THEN PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE WITH CFP. THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED AND THU MARKING A RETURN TO DRY WX.

TEMPS WILL START NR NRML AND THEN BE ABV NRML (CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES) FOR MANY AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE PD, BEFORE RETURNING TO NR
NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD. SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE LABOR DAY WKND HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 3 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY, GENLY AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W OF PHL WHICH
CUD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL EVERYWHERE
ON MON, WITH LESS POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES
ON DELAWARE BAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL APPROACH
MON INTO TUE. IT IS PSBL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THAT WE COULD
REACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME LATER SUN INTO MON AS SEAS
INCREASE IN THE SWLY FLOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT
SHOULD REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES
OF CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

THE WIND WILL START FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION
IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH TODAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A LARGE H5
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SAT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. AS
SWLY FLOW INCREASES, SUNDAY WILL BE HOTTER, EVEN MORE HUMID, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

SEVERAL S/WVS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION AND
PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE ON SUN. HOWEVER, EACH MDL HAS A
DIFFERING SOLN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHCS STILL REMAIN N AND
W. THE GFS IS WETTEST, THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER AND A TAD
DRIER. THE CMC IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM/WRF IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS.

THE NAM/WRF AND CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT
TO MAKE SUN NIGHT THE WETTEST PERIOD. HOWEVER PRECIP PLACEMENT IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION WITH BOTH THE CMC AND GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP TO THE OF OUR AREA OR OVER THE NRN EXTENT.

THE GFS IS THEN FAIRLY DRY ON MON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
LATE. THE CMC IS COMPLETELY DRY ON MON AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH
WETTER LATE, BUT STILL IMPLIES ITS MOSTLY LATER DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSRA. BUT SOLNS RUN FROM NO PRECIP TO CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH. SO
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS.

MDLS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ONCE ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ENDS,
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

THEN PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE WITH CFP. THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED AND THU MARKING A RETURN TO DRY WX.

TEMPS WILL START NR NRML AND THEN BE ABV NRML (CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES) FOR MANY AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE PD, BEFORE RETURNING TO NR
NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD. SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE LABOR DAY WKND HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 3 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY, GENLY AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W OF PHL WHICH
CUD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL EVERYWHERE
ON MON, WITH LESS POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES
ON DELAWARE BAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL APPROACH
MON INTO TUE. IT IS PSBL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THAT WE COULD
REACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME LATER SUN INTO MON AS SEAS
INCREASE IN THE SWLY FLOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT
SHOULD REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES
OF CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

THE WIND WILL START FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION
IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH TODAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A LARGE H5
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SAT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. AS
SWLY FLOW INCREASES, SUNDAY WILL BE HOTTER, EVEN MORE HUMID, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

SEVERAL S/WVS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION AND
PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE ON SUN. HOWEVER, EACH MDL HAS A
DIFFERING SOLN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHCS STILL REMAIN N AND
W. THE GFS IS WETTEST, THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER AND A TAD
DRIER. THE CMC IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM/WRF IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS.

THE NAM/WRF AND CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT
TO MAKE SUN NIGHT THE WETTEST PERIOD. HOWEVER PRECIP PLACEMENT IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION WITH BOTH THE CMC AND GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP TO THE OF OUR AREA OR OVER THE NRN EXTENT.

THE GFS IS THEN FAIRLY DRY ON MON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
LATE. THE CMC IS COMPLETELY DRY ON MON AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH
WETTER LATE, BUT STILL IMPLIES ITS MOSTLY LATER DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSRA. BUT SOLNS RUN FROM NO PRECIP TO CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH. SO
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS.

MDLS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ONCE ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ENDS,
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

THEN PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE WITH CFP. THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED AND THU MARKING A RETURN TO DRY WX.

TEMPS WILL START NR NRML AND THEN BE ABV NRML (CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES) FOR MANY AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE PD, BEFORE RETURNING TO NR
NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD. SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE LABOR DAY WKND HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 3 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY, GENLY AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W OF PHL WHICH
CUD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL EVERYWHERE
ON MON, WITH LESS POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES
ON DELAWARE BAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL APPROACH
MON INTO TUE. IT IS PSBL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THAT WE COULD
REACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME LATER SUN INTO MON AS SEAS
INCREASE IN THE SWLY FLOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1108 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST USA.

SOME DECOUPLING OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND OVERALL HAVE COOLED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT
LIGHT, TO VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH
STRONG HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F
WILL BE COMMONPLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER
AIR MASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIR MASS ADVECTION
COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL, ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. FINALLY, THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO
CLIMB TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN
ABOVE AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TNGT BECOMING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST
OF PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED BASED ON THE DOWNWARD
WAVE HEIGHT TREND THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS
HAD FALLEN TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BY 1100 PM.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE HAVE A FORECAST A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF POWERFUL
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE LOWERING OF THE
SWELLS. PART OF THIS IS RELATED TO RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY STILL IMPACTING OUR ATLANTIC COASTS.

FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY...PLEASE SWIM ONLY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
LIFEGUARDS. ALL 4 RIP CURRENT RELATED FATALITIES THIS YEAR IN NJ
WERE AT UNGUARDED BEACHES! FAMILY/FRIENDS YOU HAVE BESIDE YOU MAY
NOT NECESSARILY BE GOOD SWIMMERS AND PROBABLY DONT REALIZE HOW
DIFFICULT IT IS TO RESCUE ANOTHER HUMAN BEING IN THE OCEAN!! SWIM
AT GUARDED BEACHES WHERE THE LIFEGUARDS ARE TRAINED TO WATCH FOR
YOUR SAFETY!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1108 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST USA.

SOME DECOUPLING OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND OVERALL HAVE COOLED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT
LIGHT, TO VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH
STRONG HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F
WILL BE COMMONPLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER
AIR MASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIR MASS ADVECTION
COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL, ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. FINALLY, THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO
CLIMB TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN
ABOVE AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING
TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TNGT BECOMING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST
OF PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED BASED ON THE DOWNWARD
WAVE HEIGHT TREND THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS
HAD FALLEN TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BY 1100 PM.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE HAVE A FORECAST A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF POWERFUL
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE LOWERING OF THE
SWELLS. PART OF THIS IS RELATED TO RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY STILL IMPACTING OUR ATLANTIC COASTS.

FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY...PLEASE SWIM ONLY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
LIFEGUARDS. ALL 4 RIP CURRENT RELATED FATALITIES THIS YEAR IN NJ
WERE AT UNGUARDED BEACHES! FAMILY/FRIENDS YOU HAVE BESIDE YOU MAY
NOT NECESSARILY BE GOOD SWIMMERS AND PROBABLY DONT REALIZE HOW
DIFFICULT IT IS TO RESCUE ANOTHER HUMAN BEING IN THE OCEAN!! SWIM
AT GUARDED BEACHES WHERE THE LIFEGUARDS ARE TRAINED TO WATCH FOR
YOUR SAFETY!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST USA.

SOME DECOUPLING OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND OVERALL HAVE COOLED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, TO
VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH STRONG
HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F WILL BE
COMMONPLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START OFF THE LONGTERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIRMASS ADVECTION
COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL,
ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS. FINALLY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO CLIMB
TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN ABOVE
AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING TOWARDS
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TNGT BECOMING NORTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THOUGH SEAS ARE MARGINAL NOW AND THE
ADVISORY AS WELL AS HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BOTH BE CANCELED/EXPIRED
AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME IN AN HOUR OR TWO. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD ONLY
VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL
INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL REACH THE NJ AND DE
COASTS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL
HEADS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

WE HAVE A FORECAST A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF POWERFUL
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE LOWERING OF THE
SWELLS. PART OF THIS IS RELATED TO RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL
ENERGY STILL IMPACTING OUR ATLANTIC COASTS.

FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY...PLEASE SWIM ONLY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
LIFEGUARDS. ALL 4 RIP CURRENT RELATED FATALITIES THIS YEAR IN NJ
WERE AT UNGUARDED BEACHES! FAMILY/FRIENDS YOU HAVE BESIDE YOU MAY
NOT NECESSARILY BE GOOD SWIMMERS AND PROBABLY DONT REALIZE HOW
DIFFICULT IT IS TO RESCUE ANOTHER HUMAN BEING IN THE OCEAN!! SWIM
AT GUARDED BEACHES WHERE THE LIFEGUARDS ARE TRAINED TO WATCH FOR
YOUR SAFETY!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 947
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 947
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLEIN 947
RIP CURRENTS...947







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
540 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST, WILL ACCELERATE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESIDUAL
CAA ALOFT HELPING TO PROLONG MIXING IN THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES FORECAST). LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE UNDER A LESS THAN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, THE POCONOS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH,
YIELDING A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP LATE TONIGHT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S BY EARLY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, FORECAST LOWS RANGE THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, TO
VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH STRONG
HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F WILL BE
COMMONPLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START OFF THE LONGTERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIRMASS ADVECTION
COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL,
ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS. FINALLY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO CLIMB
TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN ABOVE
AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING TOWARDS
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN, TNGT AND FRI. BREEZY NW WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 20-25 KT LATE THIS AFTN
BEFORE WINDS RELAX AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TNGT,
BECOMING NELY FRI MRNG AND ELY FRI AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE
AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU EARLY TONIGHT AS 44009 IS NOW UP TO 6
FEET WITH A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL CRISTOBAL SWELL AND NORTHWEST
WIND GENERATED WIND WAVE. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL
INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL REACH THE NJ AND DE
COASTS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL
HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME, BUT IT MAY APPROACH MODERATE
EARLY IN THE DAY AT LEAST FOR NJ IF THE SWELLS TAKE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLEIN 540P
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 282140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
540 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST, WILL ACCELERATE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESIDUAL
CAA ALOFT HELPING TO PROLONG MIXING IN THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES FORECAST). LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE UNDER A LESS THAN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, THE POCONOS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH,
YIELDING A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP LATE TONIGHT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S BY EARLY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, FORECAST LOWS RANGE THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, TO
VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH STRONG
HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F WILL BE
COMMONPLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START OFF THE LONGTERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIRMASS ADVECTION
COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL,
ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS. FINALLY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO CLIMB
TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN ABOVE
AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING TOWARDS
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN, TNGT AND FRI. BREEZY NW WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 20-25 KT LATE THIS AFTN
BEFORE WINDS RELAX AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TNGT,
BECOMING NELY FRI MRNG AND ELY FRI AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE
AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU EARLY TONIGHT AS 44009 IS NOW UP TO 6
FEET WITH A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL CRISTOBAL SWELL AND NORTHWEST
WIND GENERATED WIND WAVE. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL
INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL REACH THE NJ AND DE
COASTS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL
HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME, BUT IT MAY APPROACH MODERATE
EARLY IN THE DAY AT LEAST FOR NJ IF THE SWELLS TAKE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLEIN 540P
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST, WILL ACCELERATE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESIDUAL
CAA ALOFT HELPING TO PROLONG MIXING IN THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES FORECAST). LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE UNDER A LESS THAN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, THE POCONOS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH,
YIELDING A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP LATE TONIGHT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S BY EARLY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, FORECAST LOWS RANGE THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, TO
VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH STRONG
HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F WILL BE
COMMONPLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START OFF THE LONGTERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIRMASS ADVECTION
COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL,
ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS. FINALLY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO CLIMB
TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN ABOVE
AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING TOWARDS
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN, TNGT AND FRI. BREEZY NW WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 20-25 KT LATE THIS AFTN
BEFORE WINDS RELAX AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TNGT,
BECOMING NELY FRI MRNG AND ELY FRI AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE
AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN FOR THE
NEAR-SHORE MARINE ZONES IN THE ATLANTIC. NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY
BUT HAVE BEEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLD (GENERALLY GUSTING AROUND 20 KT).
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE DELMARVA COAST, HAS GENERATED LARGER SWELLS NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST
TODAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALLER VESSELS. BUOY 44009 HAS
REPORTED 5 FT WAVES SINCE LATE THIS MORNING WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OF AROUND 12-14 SECONDS.

SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU THIS EVE AS CRISTOBAL
IS ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SCA EXPIRES AT 6 PM THIS
EVE FOR THE WATERS IN DE AND EXTREME SRN NJ (SOUTH OF GREAT EGG
INLET), WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO BELOW 5 FT BY
THIS EVE. THE SCA CONTINUES THRU 10 PM FARTHER NORTH UP THE NJ COAST
AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
5 FT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL
INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL REACH THE NJ AND DE
COASTS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL
HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME, BUT IT MAY APPROACH MODERATE
EARLY IN THE DAY AT LEAST FOR NJ IF THE SWELLS TAKE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281401
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION LAST
NIGHT IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL,
WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES ESE OF THE DE AND NJ COAST AS OF 8
AM, WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

IT WAS HARD TO NOT NOTICE THE AIRMASS CHANGE WHEN GOING OUT THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE NW
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE MUCH SINCE SUNRISE AS
CAA HAS OFFSET SOLAR HEATING SO FAR THIS MORNING. IN A CAA REGIME,
TEND TO LEAN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME TEMPS
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
70F IN THE POCONOS TODAY, WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE FALL LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING
TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN FORECASTING LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRY
AND PLEASANT WX IS ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT
AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWLY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE
AREA AND THE AMS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, BUT IT SHUD REMAIN DRY.

BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE ADVANCING EWD
AND ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY IN OUR DIRECTION.
THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUN. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE, SO FOR
NOW ILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE AREA
ON MON AND THE SAME QUESTIONS APPLY. THE GFS IMPLIES A FAIRLY DRY
DAY, UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE, THE ECMWF SAY WETTER IN THE AM THAN THE
PM AND THE CMC HAS SOME OF BOTH.  SO, ONCE AGAIN WILL CARRY CHC POPS.

MON NIGHT LOOKS TO CARRY SO LOW POPS AT LEAST EARLY, BEFORE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THEN TUE WILL BE DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP
ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER CDFNT ON TUE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED. THE GFS IS DRY BUT HAS SOME
PRECIP JUST TO OUR S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS PRECIP OVER OUR SRN
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY UPWARD TREND THRU THE PD. FRI LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NR 90 DEGREES SUN THRU TUE AND ABV
NRML AFTER SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TDA WITH SUNNY SKIES THOUGH SCT LOWER MT WAVE CLOUDS BETWEEN
2.5-4 KFT MAY SPILL INTO RDG THIS MRNG AND ERY AFTN. NW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KT.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SAT...A CHANCE OF SOME LOCAL FOG SAT MRNG OTHERWISE
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.  SHRA/TSRA CHCS, ESPECIALLY N AND W WITH A
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON...VFR. EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH SHWR/TSRA CHCS. LOW TO MDT
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO 20 KT TODAY. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR HIGH SEAS. THUS FAR, 5 FT HAVE NOT YET BEEN OBSERVED AT BUOY
44009, BUT THE PERIOD HAS INCREASED TO 13 SECONDS THE LAST HOUR.
EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS THRUOUT THE DAY, SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE SCA HEADLINE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CREATE PARTICULARLY
ROUGH CONDITIONS AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY.

AS CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATE TODAY, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 600 PM FOR OUR WATERS OFF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY
SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 1000 PM FOR OUR
WATERS NORTH OF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY.


OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUN INTO MON AND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS, BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO MARINE
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND
NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL REACHES THE WATERS OFF EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO








000
FXUS61 KPHI 281401
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION LAST
NIGHT IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL,
WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES ESE OF THE DE AND NJ COAST AS OF 8
AM, WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

IT WAS HARD TO NOT NOTICE THE AIRMASS CHANGE WHEN GOING OUT THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE NW
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE MUCH SINCE SUNRISE AS
CAA HAS OFFSET SOLAR HEATING SO FAR THIS MORNING. IN A CAA REGIME,
TEND TO LEAN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME TEMPS
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
70F IN THE POCONOS TODAY, WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE FALL LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING
TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN FORECASTING LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRY
AND PLEASANT WX IS ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT
AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWLY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE
AREA AND THE AMS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, BUT IT SHUD REMAIN DRY.

BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE ADVANCING EWD
AND ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY IN OUR DIRECTION.
THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUN. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE, SO FOR
NOW ILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE AREA
ON MON AND THE SAME QUESTIONS APPLY. THE GFS IMPLIES A FAIRLY DRY
DAY, UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE, THE ECMWF SAY WETTER IN THE AM THAN THE
PM AND THE CMC HAS SOME OF BOTH.  SO, ONCE AGAIN WILL CARRY CHC POPS.

MON NIGHT LOOKS TO CARRY SO LOW POPS AT LEAST EARLY, BEFORE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THEN TUE WILL BE DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP
ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER CDFNT ON TUE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED. THE GFS IS DRY BUT HAS SOME
PRECIP JUST TO OUR S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS PRECIP OVER OUR SRN
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY UPWARD TREND THRU THE PD. FRI LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NR 90 DEGREES SUN THRU TUE AND ABV
NRML AFTER SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TDA WITH SUNNY SKIES THOUGH SCT LOWER MT WAVE CLOUDS BETWEEN
2.5-4 KFT MAY SPILL INTO RDG THIS MRNG AND ERY AFTN. NW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KT.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SAT...A CHANCE OF SOME LOCAL FOG SAT MRNG OTHERWISE
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.  SHRA/TSRA CHCS, ESPECIALLY N AND W WITH A
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON...VFR. EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH SHWR/TSRA CHCS. LOW TO MDT
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO 20 KT TODAY. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR HIGH SEAS. THUS FAR, 5 FT HAVE NOT YET BEEN OBSERVED AT BUOY
44009, BUT THE PERIOD HAS INCREASED TO 13 SECONDS THE LAST HOUR.
EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS THRUOUT THE DAY, SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE SCA HEADLINE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CREATE PARTICULARLY
ROUGH CONDITIONS AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY.

AS CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATE TODAY, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 600 PM FOR OUR WATERS OFF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY
SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 1000 PM FOR OUR
WATERS NORTH OF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY.


OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUN INTO MON AND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS, BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO MARINE
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND
NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL REACHES THE WATERS OFF EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS EARLY TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER
DELMARVA AT 330 AM. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. A NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
WILL BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR A SUNNY DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE THE 70S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. THE DEW POINT IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S, AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S AT SOME LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING
TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN FORECASTING LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRY
AND PLEASANT WX IS ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT
AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWLY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE
AREA AND THE AMS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, BUT IT SHUD REMAIN DRY.

BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE ADVANCING EWD
AND ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY IN OUR DIRECTION.
THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUN. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE, SO FOR
NOW ILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE AREA
ON MON AND THE SAME QUESTIONS APPLY. THE GFS IMPLIES A FAIRLY DRY
DAY, UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE, THE ECMWF SAY WETTER IN THE AM THAN THE
PM AND THE CMC HAS SOME OF BOTH.  SO, ONCE AGAIN WILL CARRY CHC POPS.

MON NIGHT LOOKS TO CARRY SO LOW POPS AT LEAST EARLY, BEFORE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THEN TUE WILL BE DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP
ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER CDFNT ON TUE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED. THE GFS IS DRY BUT HAS SOME
PRECIP JUST TO OUR S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS PRECIP OVER OUR SRN
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY UPWARD TREND THRU THE PD. FRI LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NR 90 DEGREES SUN THRU TUE AND ABV
NRML AFTER SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 18 TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER DARK TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SAT...A CHANCE OF SOME LOCAL FOG SAT MRNG OTHERWISE
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.  SHRA/TSRA CHCS, ESPECIALLY N AND W WITH A
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON...VFR. EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH SHWR/TSRA CHCS. LOW TO MDT
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SWELLS FROM DEPARTING HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 12
TO 16 SECONDS WILL LIKELY CREATE PARTICULARLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY.

AS CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATE TODAY, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 600 PM FOR OUR WATERS OFF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY
SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 1000 PM FOR OUR
WATERS NORTH OF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY.


OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUN INTO MON AND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS, BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO MARINE
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PD.


&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND
NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL REACHES THE WATERS OFF EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS EARLY TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER
DELMARVA AT 330 AM. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. A NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
WILL BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR A SUNNY DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE THE 70S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. THE DEW POINT IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S, AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S AT SOME LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING
TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN FORECASTING LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRY
AND PLEASANT WX IS ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT
AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWLY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE
AREA AND THE AMS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, BUT IT SHUD REMAIN DRY.

BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE ADVANCING EWD
AND ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY IN OUR DIRECTION.
THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUN. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE, SO FOR
NOW ILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE AREA
ON MON AND THE SAME QUESTIONS APPLY. THE GFS IMPLIES A FAIRLY DRY
DAY, UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE, THE ECMWF SAY WETTER IN THE AM THAN THE
PM AND THE CMC HAS SOME OF BOTH.  SO, ONCE AGAIN WILL CARRY CHC POPS.

MON NIGHT LOOKS TO CARRY SO LOW POPS AT LEAST EARLY, BEFORE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THEN TUE WILL BE DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP
ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER CDFNT ON TUE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED. THE GFS IS DRY BUT HAS SOME
PRECIP JUST TO OUR S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS PRECIP OVER OUR SRN
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY UPWARD TREND THRU THE PD. FRI LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NR 90 DEGREES SUN THRU TUE AND ABV
NRML AFTER SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 18 TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER DARK TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SAT...A CHANCE OF SOME LOCAL FOG SAT MRNG OTHERWISE
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.  SHRA/TSRA CHCS, ESPECIALLY N AND W WITH A
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON...VFR. EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH SHWR/TSRA CHCS. LOW TO MDT
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SWELLS FROM DEPARTING HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 12
TO 16 SECONDS WILL LIKELY CREATE PARTICULARLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY.

AS CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATE TODAY, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 600 PM FOR OUR WATERS OFF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY
SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 1000 PM FOR OUR
WATERS NORTH OF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY.


OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUN INTO MON AND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS, BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO MARINE
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PD.


&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND
NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL REACHES THE WATERS OFF EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS EARLY TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER
DELMARVA AT 330 AM. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. A NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
WILL BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR A SUNNY DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE THE 70S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. THE DEW POINT IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S, AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S AT SOME LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING
TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN FORECASTING LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRY
AND PLEASANT WX IS ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT
AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWLY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE
AREA AND THE AMS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, BUT IT SHUD REMAIN DRY.

BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE ADVANCING EWD
AND ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY IN OUR DIRECTION.
THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUN. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE, SO FOR
NOW ILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE AREA
ON MON AND THE SAME QUESTIONS APPLY. THE GFS IMPLIES A FAIRLY DRY
DAY, UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE, THE ECMWF SAY WETTER IN THE AM THAN THE
PM AND THE CMC HAS SOME OF BOTH.  SO, ONCE AGAIN WILL CARRY CHC POPS.

MON NIGHT LOOKS TO CARRY SO LOW POPS AT LEAST EARLY, BEFORE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THEN TUE WILL BE DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP
ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER CDFNT ON TUE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED. THE GFS IS DRY BUT HAS SOME
PRECIP JUST TO OUR S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS PRECIP OVER OUR SRN
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY UPWARD TREND THRU THE PD. FRI LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NR 90 DEGREES SUN THRU TUE AND ABV
NRML AFTER SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 18 TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER DARK TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SAT...A CHANCE OF SOME LOCAL FOG SAT MRNG OTHERWISE
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.  SHRA/TSRA CHCS, ESPECIALLY N AND W WITH A
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON...VFR. EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH SHWR/TSRA CHCS. LOW TO MDT
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SWELLS FROM DEPARTING HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 12
TO 16 SECONDS WILL LIKELY CREATE PARTICULARLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY.

AS CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATE TODAY, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 600 PM FOR OUR WATERS OFF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY
SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 1000 PM FOR OUR
WATERS NORTH OF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY.


OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUN INTO MON AND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS, BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO MARINE
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PD.


&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND
NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL REACHES THE WATERS OFF EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS EARLY TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER
DELMARVA AT 330 AM. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. A NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
WILL BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR A SUNNY DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE THE 70S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. THE DEW POINT IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S, AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S AT SOME LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING
TONIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN FORECASTING LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRY
AND PLEASANT WX IS ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT
AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWLY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE
AREA AND THE AMS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, BUT IT SHUD REMAIN DRY.

BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE ADVANCING EWD
AND ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY IN OUR DIRECTION.
THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUN. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIP COVERAGE, SO FOR
NOW ILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE AREA
ON MON AND THE SAME QUESTIONS APPLY. THE GFS IMPLIES A FAIRLY DRY
DAY, UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE, THE ECMWF SAY WETTER IN THE AM THAN THE
PM AND THE CMC HAS SOME OF BOTH.  SO, ONCE AGAIN WILL CARRY CHC POPS.

MON NIGHT LOOKS TO CARRY SO LOW POPS AT LEAST EARLY, BEFORE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THEN TUE WILL BE DRY BEFORE MORE PRECIP
ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER CDFNT ON TUE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED. THE GFS IS DRY BUT HAS SOME
PRECIP JUST TO OUR S. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS PRECIP OVER OUR SRN
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY UPWARD TREND THRU THE PD. FRI LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NR 90 DEGREES SUN THRU TUE AND ABV
NRML AFTER SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 18 TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER DARK TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SAT...A CHANCE OF SOME LOCAL FOG SAT MRNG OTHERWISE
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.  SHRA/TSRA CHCS, ESPECIALLY N AND W WITH A
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON...VFR. EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH SHWR/TSRA CHCS. LOW TO MDT
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SWELLS FROM DEPARTING HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 12
TO 16 SECONDS WILL LIKELY CREATE PARTICULARLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY.

AS CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATE TODAY, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 600 PM FOR OUR WATERS OFF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY
SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 1000 PM FOR OUR
WATERS NORTH OF OCEAN CITY, NEW JERSEY.


OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUN INTO MON AND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS, BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO MARINE
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PD.


&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND
NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL REACHES THE WATERS OFF EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280428
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, HELPING
TO KEEP HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND PERTH AMBOY TO TRENTON TO
NORRISTOWN TO COATESVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER LINGERED NEAR HAZLETON IN PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING WAS
LOCATED IN MORRIS COUNTY, NEW JERSEY AROUND DENVILLE AND BOONTON.
THERE WAS ONE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER NEAR WARREN TOWNSHIP IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. WE WILL REMOVE THE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST BASED ON ITS VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE AND ON THE EXPECTATION THAT IT SHOULD EITHER
DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY ABOUT 130 AM.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVING SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA DURING
THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST 12Z THURSDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST, MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA DURING THE DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH/HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO OUR EAST WILL
PRODUCE A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE
WINDS WILL USHER IN RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR WITH THE SOURCE OF
THIS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM CANADA. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE
LM80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT MU70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXITING THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL
BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
RIDGE MAY HOLD FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL
CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS TIME FRAME,
ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH BEFORE RETREATING
NORTHWARD. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY SOME RIDGING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH,
THEREFORE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WIND SHOULD OCCUR. THIS
WILL HELP ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER
AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO START BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST WILL ASSIST IN WAA DEVELOPING NORTHBOUND UP THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALSO ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRAVELING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
TRY AND FLATTEN IT SOME. DUE TO THE RIDGE AND ALSO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OFFSHORE, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM/HOT AND
INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE THERE
MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH MUCH
OF THE ENERGY FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, WE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE MAY
END UP WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST SUNDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE. DESPITE THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD FLANK OF THIS WEAKENING DISTURBANCE SUNDAY. IF A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS, THIS COULD ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LARGE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE
HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IN PLACE, SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
LOCALLY STRONG FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF OUR
CWA. THIS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE AND THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED
FEATURES. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED CHC POPS OR LESS DURING SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST MONDAY, A RIDGE IS STILL NEAR OUR
AREA MAINTAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE THOUGH TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER AS OF NOW
THERE IS NO REAL STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH THIS SOUTHWARD, PLUS
THE RIDGING FARTHER SOUTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AT BAY.
HOWEVER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WITHIN A RATHER WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS A LEE SIDE TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT AND EVEN SHARPEN UP
SOME. WITH ANY SUBTLE SHORT WAVES TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LINGERING RIDGE, SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN
TANDEM WITH THE LEE SIDE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHC TO LOWER CHC POPS ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THEREFORE WE FOLLOWED MORE
CLOSELY TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WE
DID STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY. AS HEIGHTS FALL, THE FRONT ARRIVES
AND LARGE SCALE FORCING GENERALLY ARRIVES, SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS OCCURS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH ENOUGH SHEAR,
CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED. OVERALL, WE WENT RATHER CLOSE
TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND OR ABOVE 4000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST,
AND THEN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH EARLY MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOWER CONFIDENCE
REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MIDNIGHT...SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL HOLDING AT 4 FEET.
STILL BELIEVE THAT SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE NJ AND DE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MAX
SEAS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. WHILE 5-FOOT SWELLS MAY
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT, WE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
FOR A TIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
REACH NJ AND DE BEACHES COMPARED TO WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...HIGHER SWELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND THESE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD OVER
NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS CRISTOBAL CHURNS UP THE WATERS
500 MILES OR SO ESE OF DELAWARE BAY. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE MEDIA AND DECISION MAKERS CAN HELP. ALL 4 RIP CURRENT
FATALITIES AT NJ BEACHES THIS YEAR WERE AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS!

THERE ISNT MUCH MORE WE CAN SAY EXCEPT THAT FAMILY MEMBERS AND
FRIENDS MAY THINK THEY`RE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP YOU SAFE BUT ITS
RISKY. LIKE IT OR NOT...THE WATER IS FAR MORE POWERFUL THAN YOU
THINK. SWIMMING IN THE OCEAN IS NOT SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL POOL.
ITS PROBABLY MORE TIRING BECAUSE OF LONG SHORE CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AND THE SWEEPING CRASHING MOTION OF THE WAVES BREAKING
INWARD AND THEN THE OUTGOING WATER RETURNING TO SEA AS RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...AMC/DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280428
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, HELPING
TO KEEP HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND PERTH AMBOY TO TRENTON TO
NORRISTOWN TO COATESVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER LINGERED NEAR HAZLETON IN PENNSYLVANIA.
ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING WAS
LOCATED IN MORRIS COUNTY, NEW JERSEY AROUND DENVILLE AND BOONTON.
THERE WAS ONE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER NEAR WARREN TOWNSHIP IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. WE WILL REMOVE THE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST BASED ON ITS VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE AND ON THE EXPECTATION THAT IT SHOULD EITHER
DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY ABOUT 130 AM.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVING SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA DURING
THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST 12Z THURSDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST, MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA DURING THE DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH/HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO OUR EAST WILL
PRODUCE A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE
WINDS WILL USHER IN RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR WITH THE SOURCE OF
THIS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM CANADA. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE
LM80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT MU70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXITING THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL
BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
RIDGE MAY HOLD FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL
CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS TIME FRAME,
ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH BEFORE RETREATING
NORTHWARD. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY SOME RIDGING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH,
THEREFORE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WIND SHOULD OCCUR. THIS
WILL HELP ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER
AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO START BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST WILL ASSIST IN WAA DEVELOPING NORTHBOUND UP THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALSO ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRAVELING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
TRY AND FLATTEN IT SOME. DUE TO THE RIDGE AND ALSO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OFFSHORE, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM/HOT AND
INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE THERE
MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH MUCH
OF THE ENERGY FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, WE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE MAY
END UP WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST SUNDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE. DESPITE THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD FLANK OF THIS WEAKENING DISTURBANCE SUNDAY. IF A LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS, THIS COULD ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LARGE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE
HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IN PLACE, SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
LOCALLY STRONG FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF OUR
CWA. THIS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE AND THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED
FEATURES. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED CHC POPS OR LESS DURING SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST MONDAY, A RIDGE IS STILL NEAR OUR
AREA MAINTAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE THOUGH TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER AS OF NOW
THERE IS NO REAL STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH THIS SOUTHWARD, PLUS
THE RIDGING FARTHER SOUTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AT BAY.
HOWEVER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WITHIN A RATHER WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS A LEE SIDE TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT AND EVEN SHARPEN UP
SOME. WITH ANY SUBTLE SHORT WAVES TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LINGERING RIDGE, SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN
TANDEM WITH THE LEE SIDE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHC TO LOWER CHC POPS ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THEREFORE WE FOLLOWED MORE
CLOSELY TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WE
DID STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY. AS HEIGHTS FALL, THE FRONT ARRIVES
AND LARGE SCALE FORCING GENERALLY ARRIVES, SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS OCCURS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH ENOUGH SHEAR,
CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED. OVERALL, WE WENT RATHER CLOSE
TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND OR ABOVE 4000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST,
AND THEN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH EARLY MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOWER CONFIDENCE
REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MIDNIGHT...SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL HOLDING AT 4 FEET.
STILL BELIEVE THAT SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE NJ AND DE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MAX
SEAS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. WHILE 5-FOOT SWELLS MAY
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT, WE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
FOR A TIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
REACH NJ AND DE BEACHES COMPARED TO WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...HIGHER SWELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND THESE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD OVER
NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS CRISTOBAL CHURNS UP THE WATERS
500 MILES OR SO ESE OF DELAWARE BAY. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE MEDIA AND DECISION MAKERS CAN HELP. ALL 4 RIP CURRENT
FATALITIES AT NJ BEACHES THIS YEAR WERE AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS!

THERE ISNT MUCH MORE WE CAN SAY EXCEPT THAT FAMILY MEMBERS AND
FRIENDS MAY THINK THEY`RE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP YOU SAFE BUT ITS
RISKY. LIKE IT OR NOT...THE WATER IS FAR MORE POWERFUL THAN YOU
THINK. SWIMMING IN THE OCEAN IS NOT SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL POOL.
ITS PROBABLY MORE TIRING BECAUSE OF LONG SHORE CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AND THE SWEEPING CRASHING MOTION OF THE WAVES BREAKING
INWARD AND THEN THE OUTGOING WATER RETURNING TO SEA AS RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...AMC/DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, HELPING TO
KEEP HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY, THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TSTM ACTVTY SEEMED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVED INTO OUR NWR ZONES AND AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF MAX
INSTBY AHD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL INSTBY AND ASSOCD TSTM COVERAGE
IS NOW DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONT BUT WILL LEAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ENTERING OUR NW ZONES AS OF 0100Z...
AS WINDS AT MPO/AVP/HZL HAVE ALL TURNED NWLY AND PRES IS BEGINNING
TO RISE OVER THIS AREA. THE PREVIOUS FCST TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS
LOOKS REASONABLY GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIN BELOW...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
OVER CENTRAL NY-WESTERN PA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST, ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FENWICK ISLAND, DE.

THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION. LIKEWISE, THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS (40-50 KT AT H5)
WILL ALSO STAY NORTH. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CAN BE SEEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD MUCH SLOWER ACROSS PA. THE BEST LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF ISN`T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ
UNTIL SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING. KEPT POPS LOW WITH THE FROPA
AND CONFINED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NJ. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE THESE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT 6 AND 9
PM, WHICH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
SHORTLY AFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

THE FRONT GRADUALLY ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUD COVER.
ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS GUIDANCE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVING SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA DURING
THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST 12Z THURSDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA DURING THE DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH/HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO OUR EAST WILL PRODUCE A
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
USHER IN RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR WITH THE SOURCE OF THIS
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM CANADA. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LM80S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT MU70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXITING THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BUILD A
RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE MAY
HOLD FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL FRONT
MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY SOME RIDGING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH,
THEREFORE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WIND SHOULD OCCUR. THIS WILL
HELP ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER AIR
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO START BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL ASSIST IN WAA DEVELOPING NORTHBOUND UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRAVELING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRY AND
FLATTEN IT SOME. DUE TO THE RIDGE AND ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED OFFSHORE, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM/HOT AND INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY, THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, WE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE MAY END UP WEAKENING
AS IT TRAVERSES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. DESPITE
THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLANK OF
THIS WEAKENING DISTURBANCE SUNDAY. IF A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS,
THIS COULD ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE LARGE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IN PLACE,
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE AND
THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED FEATURES. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED CHC POPS OR
LESS DURING SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST MONDAY, A RIDGE IS STILL NEAR OUR AREA
MAINTAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE THOUGH TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER AS OF NOW THERE IS NO
REAL STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH THIS SOUTHWARD, PLUS THE RIDGING
FARTHER SOUTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AT BAY. HOWEVER, THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WITHIN A RATHER WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
A LEE SIDE TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT AND EVEN SHARPEN UP SOME. WITH ANY
SUBTLE SHORT WAVES TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LINGERING RIDGE, SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOWER CHC
POPS ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THEREFORE WE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WE
DID STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY. AS HEIGHTS FALL, THE FRONT ARRIVES
AND LARGE SCALE FORCING GENERALLY ARRIVES, SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS OCCURS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH ENOUGH SHEAR,
CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED. OVERALL, WE WENT RATHER CLOSE TO
THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER ERN/NERN PA ARE WEAKENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTBY. THE CHANCE OF ANY TSTMS
AFFECTING EITHER ABE OR RDG IS RAPIDLY DECREASING.

OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU TNGT. LIGHT SW WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS AFTN WILL BECOME NW TNGT BEHIND COLD FROPA. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT- TERM GUIDANCE, PUSHED BACK TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT A FEW HRS WITH THE 18Z TAFS. FROPA
MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z FOR PHL (THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
2-3 HRS EARLIER AT RDG/ABE AND 2-3 HRS LATER AT ACY/MIV).

NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THU. SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST, AND
THEN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH EARLY MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MID EVENING...SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL HOLDING AT 3.5 TO
4.O FEET. STILL BELIEVE THAT SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE
NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MAX SEAS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE SEAS HAVE TAKEN LONGER TO BUILD ACROSS THE DELAWARE AND NJ
WATERS (BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN STEADY AROUND 3-4 FT FOR MOST OF THE
DAY) THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED, BUT IT WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST BUOY OBS THIS AFTN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
SHOW LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAVE REACHED SE VA AND
NC. EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS TO DEVELOP IN THE DE/SRN NJ WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THIS EVE. HAVE UPDATED WORDING
IN THE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS UP TO 7 FT STILL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THRU THU.

OUTLOOK...
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. WHILE 5-FOOT SWELLS MAY
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT, WE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
FOR A TIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
REACH NJ AND DE BEACHES COMPARED TO WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...HIGHER SWELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND THESE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD OVER
NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS CRISTOBAL CHURNS UP THE WATERS
500 MILES OR SO ESE OF DELAWARE BAY. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE MEDIA AND DECISION MAKERS CAN HELP. ALL 4 RIP CURRENT FATALITIES
AT NJ BEACHES THIS YEAR WERE AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS!

THERE ISNT MUCH MORE WE CAN SAY EXCEPT THAT FAMILY MEMBERS AND
FRIENDS MAY THINK THEY`RE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP YOU SAFE BUT ITS
RISKY.  LIKE IT OR NOT...THE WATER IS FAR MORE POWERFUL THAN YOU
THINK. SWIMMING IN THE OCEAN IS NOT SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL POOL. ITS
PROBABLY MORE TIRING BECAUSE OF LONG SHORE CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACH
AND THE SWEEPING CRASHING MOTION OF THE WAVES BREAKING INWARD AND
THEN THE OUTGOING WATER RETURNING TO SEA AS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...AMC/DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, HELPING TO
KEEP HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY, THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TSTM ACTVTY SEEMED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVED INTO OUR NWR ZONES AND AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF MAX
INSTBY AHD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL INSTBY AND ASSOCD TSTM COVERAGE
IS NOW DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONT BUT WILL LEAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ENTERING OUR NW ZONES AS OF 0100Z...
AS WINDS AT MPO/AVP/HZL HAVE ALL TURNED NWLY AND PRES IS BEGINNING
TO RISE OVER THIS AREA. THE PREVIOUS FCST TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS
LOOKS REASONABLY GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIN BELOW...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
OVER CENTRAL NY-WESTERN PA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST, ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FENWICK ISLAND, DE.

THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION. LIKEWISE, THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS (40-50 KT AT H5)
WILL ALSO STAY NORTH. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CAN BE SEEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD MUCH SLOWER ACROSS PA. THE BEST LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF ISN`T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ
UNTIL SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING. KEPT POPS LOW WITH THE FROPA
AND CONFINED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NJ. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE THESE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT 6 AND 9
PM, WHICH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
SHORTLY AFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

THE FRONT GRADUALLY ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUD COVER.
ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS GUIDANCE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVING SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA DURING
THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST 12Z THURSDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA DURING THE DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH/HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO OUR EAST WILL PRODUCE A
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
USHER IN RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR WITH THE SOURCE OF THIS
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM CANADA. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LM80S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT MU70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXITING THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BUILD A
RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE MAY
HOLD FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL FRONT
MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY SOME RIDGING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH,
THEREFORE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WIND SHOULD OCCUR. THIS WILL
HELP ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER AIR
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO START BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL ASSIST IN WAA DEVELOPING NORTHBOUND UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRAVELING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRY AND
FLATTEN IT SOME. DUE TO THE RIDGE AND ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED OFFSHORE, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM/HOT AND INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY, THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, WE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE MAY END UP WEAKENING
AS IT TRAVERSES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. DESPITE
THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLANK OF
THIS WEAKENING DISTURBANCE SUNDAY. IF A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS,
THIS COULD ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE LARGE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IN PLACE,
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE AND
THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED FEATURES. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED CHC POPS OR
LESS DURING SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST MONDAY, A RIDGE IS STILL NEAR OUR AREA
MAINTAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE THOUGH TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER AS OF NOW THERE IS NO
REAL STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH THIS SOUTHWARD, PLUS THE RIDGING
FARTHER SOUTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AT BAY. HOWEVER, THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WITHIN A RATHER WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
A LEE SIDE TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT AND EVEN SHARPEN UP SOME. WITH ANY
SUBTLE SHORT WAVES TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LINGERING RIDGE, SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOWER CHC
POPS ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THEREFORE WE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WE
DID STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY. AS HEIGHTS FALL, THE FRONT ARRIVES
AND LARGE SCALE FORCING GENERALLY ARRIVES, SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS OCCURS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH ENOUGH SHEAR,
CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED. OVERALL, WE WENT RATHER CLOSE TO
THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER ERN/NERN PA ARE WEAKENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTBY. THE CHANCE OF ANY TSTMS
AFFECTING EITHER ABE OR RDG IS RAPIDLY DECREASING.

OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU TNGT. LIGHT SW WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS AFTN WILL BECOME NW TNGT BEHIND COLD FROPA. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT- TERM GUIDANCE, PUSHED BACK TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT A FEW HRS WITH THE 18Z TAFS. FROPA
MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z FOR PHL (THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
2-3 HRS EARLIER AT RDG/ABE AND 2-3 HRS LATER AT ACY/MIV).

NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THU. SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST, AND
THEN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH EARLY MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MID EVENING...SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL HOLDING AT 3.5 TO
4.O FEET. STILL BELIEVE THAT SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL WILL AFFECT THE
NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MAX SEAS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE SEAS HAVE TAKEN LONGER TO BUILD ACROSS THE DELAWARE AND NJ
WATERS (BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN STEADY AROUND 3-4 FT FOR MOST OF THE
DAY) THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED, BUT IT WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST BUOY OBS THIS AFTN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
SHOW LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAVE REACHED SE VA AND
NC. EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS TO DEVELOP IN THE DE/SRN NJ WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THIS EVE. HAVE UPDATED WORDING
IN THE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS UP TO 7 FT STILL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THRU THU.

OUTLOOK...
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. WHILE 5-FOOT SWELLS MAY
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT, WE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
FOR A TIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
REACH NJ AND DE BEACHES COMPARED TO WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...HIGHER SWELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND THESE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD OVER
NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS CRISTOBAL CHURNS UP THE WATERS
500 MILES OR SO ESE OF DELAWARE BAY. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE MEDIA AND DECISION MAKERS CAN HELP. ALL 4 RIP CURRENT FATALITIES
AT NJ BEACHES THIS YEAR WERE AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS!

THERE ISNT MUCH MORE WE CAN SAY EXCEPT THAT FAMILY MEMBERS AND
FRIENDS MAY THINK THEY`RE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP YOU SAFE BUT ITS
RISKY.  LIKE IT OR NOT...THE WATER IS FAR MORE POWERFUL THAN YOU
THINK. SWIMMING IN THE OCEAN IS NOT SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL POOL. ITS
PROBABLY MORE TIRING BECAUSE OF LONG SHORE CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACH
AND THE SWEEPING CRASHING MOTION OF THE WAVES BREAKING INWARD AND
THEN THE OUTGOING WATER RETURNING TO SEA AS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...AMC/DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, HELPING TO
KEEP HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY, THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
OVER CENTRAL NY-WESTERN PA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST, ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FENWICK ISLAND, DE.

THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION. LIKEWISE, THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS (40-50 KT AT H5)
WILL ALSO STAY NORTH. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CAN BE SEEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD MUCH SLOWER ACROSS PA. THE BEST LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF ISN`T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ
UNTIL SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING. KEPT POPS LOW WITH THE FROPA
AND CONFINED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NJ. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE THESE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT 6 AND 9
PM, WHICH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
SHORTLY AFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

THE FRONT GRADUALLY ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUD COVER.
ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS GUIDANCE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVING SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA DURING
THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST 12Z THURSDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA DURING THE DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH/HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO OUR EAST WILL PRODUCE A
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
USHER IN RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR WITH THE SOURCE OF THIS
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM CANADA. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LM80S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT MU70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXITING THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BUILD A
RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE MAY
HOLD FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL FRONT
MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY SOME RIDGING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH,
THEREFORE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WIND SHOULD OCCUR. THIS WILL
HELP ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER AIR
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO START BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL ASSIST IN WAA DEVELOPING NORTHBOUND UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRAVELING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRY AND
FLATTEN IT SOME. DUE TO THE RIDGE AND ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED OFFSHORE, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM/HOT AND INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY, THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, WE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE MAY END UP WEAKENING
AS IT TRAVERSES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. DESPITE
THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLANK OF
THIS WEAKENING DISTURBANCE SUNDAY. IF A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS,
THIS COULD ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE LARGE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IN PLACE,
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE AND
THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED FEATURES. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED CHC POPS OR
LESS DURING SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST MONDAY, A RIDGE IS STILL NEAR OUR AREA
MAINTAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE THOUGH TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER AS OF NOW THERE IS NO
REAL STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH THIS SOUTHWARD, PLUS THE RIDGING
FARTHER SOUTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AT BAY. HOWEVER, THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WITHIN A RATHER WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
A LEE SIDE TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT AND EVEN SHARPEN UP SOME. WITH ANY
SUBTLE SHORT WAVES TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LINGERING RIDGE, SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOWER CHC
POPS ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THEREFORE WE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WE
DID STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY. AS HEIGHTS FALL, THE FRONT ARRIVES
AND LARGE SCALE FORCING GENERALLY ARRIVES, SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS OCCURS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH ENOUGH SHEAR,
CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED. OVERALL, WE WENT RATHER CLOSE TO
THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE
(ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR RDG/ABE AND 10 PERCENT FARTHER S/E) AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. COVERAGE/FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU TNGT. LIGHT SW
WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN WILL BECOME NW TNGT BEHIND COLD FROPA. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, PUSHED BACK TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT A FEW HRS WITH THE 18Z TAFS. FROPA
MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z FOR PHL (THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
2-3 HRS EARLIER AT RDG/ABE AND 2-3 HRS LATER AT ACY/MIV).

NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THU. SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST, AND
THEN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH EARLY MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SEAS HAVE TAKEN LONGER TO BUILD ACROSS THE DELAWARE AND NJ
WATERS (BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN STEADY AROUND 3-4 FT FOR MOST OF THE
DAY) THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED, BUT IT WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST BUOY OBS THIS AFTN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
SHOW LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAVE REACHED SE VA AND
NC. EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS TO DEVELOP IN THE DE/SRN NJ WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THIS EVE. HAVE UPDATED WORDING
IN THE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS UP TO 7 FT STILL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THRU THU.

OUTLOOK...
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. WHILE 5-FOOT SWELLS MAY
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT, WE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
FOR A TIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER
TO REACH THE DE/NJ BEACHES SO FAR THIS AFTN, BUT ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED MIDDAY BY DE/NJ BEACH PATROLS
AND OBSERVERS. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ONLY INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SWELLS IN THE SURF ZONE CONTINUE TO
BUILD. THE RISK OF DROWNING WILL BE MAGNIFIED IF OPTING TO SWIM AFTER
LIFEGUARDS GO OFF DUTY. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH CRISTOBAL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, HELPING TO
KEEP HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY, THEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
OVER CENTRAL NY-WESTERN PA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST, ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FENWICK ISLAND, DE.

THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION. LIKEWISE, THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS (40-50 KT AT H5)
WILL ALSO STAY NORTH. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CAN BE SEEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD MUCH SLOWER ACROSS PA. THE BEST LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF ISN`T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ
UNTIL SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING. KEPT POPS LOW WITH THE FROPA
AND CONFINED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NJ. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE THESE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT 6 AND 9
PM, WHICH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
SHORTLY AFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

THE FRONT GRADUALLY ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUD COVER.
ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS GUIDANCE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVING SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA DURING
THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST 12Z THURSDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA DURING THE DAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH/HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO OUR EAST WILL PRODUCE A
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
USHER IN RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR WITH THE SOURCE OF THIS
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM CANADA. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LM80S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT MU70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXITING THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BUILD A
RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE MAY
HOLD FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL FRONT
MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY SOME RIDGING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH,
THEREFORE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WIND SHOULD OCCUR. THIS WILL
HELP ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER AIR
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO START BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL ASSIST IN WAA DEVELOPING NORTHBOUND UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRAVELING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRY AND
FLATTEN IT SOME. DUE TO THE RIDGE AND ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED OFFSHORE, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM/HOT AND INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY, THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, WE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE MAY END UP WEAKENING
AS IT TRAVERSES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. DESPITE
THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLANK OF
THIS WEAKENING DISTURBANCE SUNDAY. IF A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS,
THIS COULD ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE LARGE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IN PLACE,
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG FROM OUR WESTERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE AND
THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED FEATURES. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED CHC POPS OR
LESS DURING SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST MONDAY, A RIDGE IS STILL NEAR OUR AREA
MAINTAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE THOUGH TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER AS OF NOW THERE IS NO
REAL STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH THIS SOUTHWARD, PLUS THE RIDGING
FARTHER SOUTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AT BAY. HOWEVER, THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WITHIN A RATHER WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
A LEE SIDE TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT AND EVEN SHARPEN UP SOME. WITH ANY
SUBTLE SHORT WAVES TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LINGERING RIDGE, SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOWER CHC
POPS ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THEREFORE WE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WE
DID STAY CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY. AS HEIGHTS FALL, THE FRONT ARRIVES
AND LARGE SCALE FORCING GENERALLY ARRIVES, SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS OCCURS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH ENOUGH SHEAR,
CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED. OVERALL, WE WENT RATHER CLOSE TO
THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE
(ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR RDG/ABE AND 10 PERCENT FARTHER S/E) AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. COVERAGE/FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU TNGT. LIGHT SW
WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN WILL BECOME NW TNGT BEHIND COLD FROPA. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, PUSHED BACK TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT A FEW HRS WITH THE 18Z TAFS. FROPA
MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z FOR PHL (THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
2-3 HRS EARLIER AT RDG/ABE AND 2-3 HRS LATER AT ACY/MIV).

NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THU. SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST, AND
THEN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH EARLY MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SEAS HAVE TAKEN LONGER TO BUILD ACROSS THE DELAWARE AND NJ
WATERS (BUOY 44009 HAS BEEN STEADY AROUND 3-4 FT FOR MOST OF THE
DAY) THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED, BUT IT WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST BUOY OBS THIS AFTN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
SHOW LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAVE REACHED SE VA AND
NC. EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS TO DEVELOP IN THE DE/SRN NJ WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THIS EVE. HAVE UPDATED WORDING
IN THE SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS UP TO 7 FT STILL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THRU THU.

OUTLOOK...
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA,
THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. WHILE 5-FOOT SWELLS MAY
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT, WE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN
FOR A TIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER
TO REACH THE DE/NJ BEACHES SO FAR THIS AFTN, BUT ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED MIDDAY BY DE/NJ BEACH PATROLS
AND OBSERVERS. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ONLY INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SWELLS IN THE SURF ZONE CONTINUE TO
BUILD. THE RISK OF DROWNING WILL BE MAGNIFIED IF OPTING TO SWIM AFTER
LIFEGUARDS GO OFF DUTY. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH CRISTOBAL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN





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