Home > Products > State Listing > Delaware Data
Latest:
 AFDPHI |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 020142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 012358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
758 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST 21-22Z METAR OBS
AND THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE
06Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH
THE NAM SHOWING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 012358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
758 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST 21-22Z METAR OBS
AND THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE
06Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH
THE NAM SHOWING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 012224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST 21-22Z METAR OBS
AND THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE
06Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH
THE NAM SHOWING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 012224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST 21-22Z METAR OBS
AND THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE
06Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH
THE NAM SHOWING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS,
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ. THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE 06Z TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME-FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY.
AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS,
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ. THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE 06Z TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME-FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY.
AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011816
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011816
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011816
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011816
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011425
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011425
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011425
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011425
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
536 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, KPNE AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND
TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA INCREASES.
THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT THE RISK
FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN
00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
536 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, KPNE AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND
TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA INCREASES.
THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT THE RISK
FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN
00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR
SHRA INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT
EXPECT THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER,
INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR
SHRA INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT
EXPECT THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER,
INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR
SHRA INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT
EXPECT THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER,
INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR
SHRA INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT
EXPECT THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER,
INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS OUR CWA AND THE ONES LEFT TO THE WEST ARE RUNNING ON FUMES.
THE NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN IS TOWARD MORNING IF PCPN IN THE CAROLINAS
CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. THE SHORT WAVES LOOK VIGOROUS ENOUGH, SO
WHILE WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BASED ON COSPA/HRRR AND RUC TRENDS, WE
DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THUNDER NOT LIKELY.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AND UPWARD
SOUTHEAST BASED ON CLOUD TREND. CLOUDINESS IS LINED PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER AIR FLOW, SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR IT TO BACK
NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL BE NUDGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MAV/MET ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND
INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS OUR CWA AND THE ONES LEFT TO THE WEST ARE RUNNING ON FUMES.
THE NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN IS TOWARD MORNING IF PCPN IN THE CAROLINAS
CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. THE SHORT WAVES LOOK VIGOROUS ENOUGH, SO
WHILE WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BASED ON COSPA/HRRR AND RUC TRENDS, WE
DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THUNDER NOT LIKELY.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AND UPWARD
SOUTHEAST BASED ON CLOUD TREND. CLOUDINESS IS LINED PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER AIR FLOW, SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR IT TO BACK
NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL BE NUDGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MAV/MET ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND
INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 312346
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
746 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF TRULY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEA
BREEZE LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPS DROPPING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ON THE
TOWARD MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE ONCE
COSPA/HRRR HAS BETTER TEMPORAL COVERAGE.

THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST. POPS
WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET
ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

THE EVENING SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED.

ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 312346
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
746 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF TRULY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEA
BREEZE LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPS DROPPING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ON THE
TOWARD MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE ONCE
COSPA/HRRR HAS BETTER TEMPORAL COVERAGE.

THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST. POPS
WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET
ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

THE EVENING SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED.

ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 312210
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
610 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF TRULY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEA
BREEZE LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPS DROPPING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ON THE
TOWARD MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE ONCE
COSPA/HRRR HAS BETTER TEMPORAL COVERAGE.

THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST. POPS
WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET
ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SHOWING UP ON SOME
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC ATTM AS GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS WITH THE NAM HITTING HARDER. CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS A 40% OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL, GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE
TO LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BUT KEEPING VFR. BROUGHT IN A
GRADUAL OVERCAST TOMORROW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET
LOWERING IT AT PHL BY 15Z. SHOWERS WE`RE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR
TOMORROW GIVEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 312210
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
610 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF TRULY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEA
BREEZE LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPS DROPPING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ON THE
TOWARD MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE ONCE
COSPA/HRRR HAS BETTER TEMPORAL COVERAGE.

THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST. POPS
WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET
ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SHOWING UP ON SOME
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC ATTM AS GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS WITH THE NAM HITTING HARDER. CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS A 40% OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL, GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE
TO LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BUT KEEPING VFR. BROUGHT IN A
GRADUAL OVERCAST TOMORROW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET
LOWERING IT AT PHL BY 15Z. SHOWERS WE`RE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR
TOMORROW GIVEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST.
POPS WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING EVER
SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE. ANY GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING. TOOK OUT ANY GROUPINGS
WITH VCSH IN IT AS THE COVERAGE IS VERY LOCALIZED AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES ATTM. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SHOWING
UP ON SOME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC ATTM AS GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS WITH THE NAM HITTING HARDER. CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS A 40% OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL, GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE TO
LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BUT KEEPING VFR. BROUGHT IN A GRADUAL
OVERCAST TOMORROW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET LOWERING
IT AT PHL BY 15Z. SHOWERS WE`RE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW
GIVEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE..
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KEARNS
SHORT TERM...GAINES/KEARNS
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST.
POPS WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING EVER
SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE. ANY GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING. TOOK OUT ANY GROUPINGS
WITH VCSH IN IT AS THE COVERAGE IS VERY LOCALIZED AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES ATTM. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SHOWING
UP ON SOME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC ATTM AS GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS WITH THE NAM HITTING HARDER. CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS A 40% OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL, GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE TO
LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BUT KEEPING VFR. BROUGHT IN A GRADUAL
OVERCAST TOMORROW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET LOWERING
IT AT PHL BY 15Z. SHOWERS WE`RE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW
GIVEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE..
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KEARNS
SHORT TERM...GAINES/KEARNS
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AT MOST. CUMULUS HAS FIRED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL POP- UP SHOWERS OR
THUNDER STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY TODAY, LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE 16Z METAR OBS. USED THE THE LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AS THE MAV AND MET BOTH APPEAR A TOUCH
LOW. SKY COVER WAS ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE TRENDS OF
THE CUMULUS FIELD.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AT MOST. CUMULUS HAS FIRED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL POP- UP SHOWERS OR
THUNDER STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY TODAY, LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE 16Z METAR OBS. USED THE THE LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AS THE MAV AND MET BOTH APPEAR A TOUCH
LOW. SKY COVER WAS ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE TRENDS OF
THE CUMULUS FIELD.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311321
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. EVENTHOUGH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AS OF 9:15 AM SHOW ANY SHOWERS EXITING THE REGION,
ADDITIONAL POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OTU THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY, LEFT IN SLIGHT TO CHC POPS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE 13Z METAR OBS.
DEWPOINTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY GO BACK DOWN
SLIGHTLY AS SOME MIXING OCCURS TODAY AND THIS WAS TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT. SKY COVER WAS ALSO RAISED ALONG THE NORTHERN JERSEY COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. DID EXTEND THE
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS BACK IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. DID EXTEND THE
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS BACK IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. DID EXTEND THE
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS BACK IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. DID EXTEND THE
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS BACK IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310821
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING
FACTORS, EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE REGION. FIRST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE, KTTN, AND KPNE. THEN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OVERNIGHT
SHRA. COVERAGE HOWEVER SHOULD BE LIMITED, SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL RISK OF BR DEVELOPING
AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT THROUGH 00Z, BEFORE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310821
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING
FACTORS, EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE REGION. FIRST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE, KTTN, AND KPNE. THEN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OVERNIGHT
SHRA. COVERAGE HOWEVER SHOULD BE LIMITED, SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL RISK OF BR DEVELOPING
AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT THROUGH 00Z, BEFORE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities