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000
FXUS61 KPHI 240812
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION AND SHOULD BEE OFFSHORE
LATER THIS MRNG.  HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

HOWEVER, SOME GUID STILL INDICATES THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND WITH THE FRONT LOCATED JUST TO OUR S, THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS, MAINLY OVER SRN AREAS FROM LATER THIS MRNG
INTO ERLY EVE.  BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER.  FOR NOW, WILL CARRY
SOME LOW POPS.

THE HRRR ALSO HAS SOME PRECIP MOVG IN FROM THE S AND W THIS AM.
THERE IS SOME LIGHT STUFF OVER PA AND MD, BUT THE HRRR APPEARS A BIT
OVERDONE.

OVERALL GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THERE COULD BE SOME LCL MVFR
THIS MRNG IN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG.  ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE SOME
SHRA OR ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS.  HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES.  WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR N
AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION AND SHOULD BEE OFFSHORE
LATER THIS MRNG.  HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

HOWEVER, SOME GUID STILL INDICATES THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND WITH THE FRONT LOCATED JUST TO OUR S, THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS, MAINLY OVER SRN AREAS FROM LATER THIS MRNG
INTO ERLY EVE.  BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER.  FOR NOW, WILL CARRY
SOME LOW POPS.

THE HRRR ALSO HAS SOME PRECIP MOVG IN FROM THE S AND W THIS AM.
THERE IS SOME LIGHT STUFF OVER PA AND MD, BUT THE HRRR APPEARS A BIT
OVERDONE.

OVERALL GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C SHOULD YIELD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS WILL BE LIKE MORE
TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.
THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL.
INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR
THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION,
BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THERE COULD BE SOME LCL MVFR
THIS MRNG IN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG.  ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE SOME
SHRA OR ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS.  HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES.  WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR N
AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240415
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE ON SUNDAY SPILLING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE BASICALLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SRN NJ, THE
ADJACENT WATERS AND SRN DE ATTM. EXPECT A FURTHER DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS PRECIP MOVES OFF THE
COAST. THERE IS ANOTHER AREAS OF PRECIP IN SRN MD, THAT COULD END
UP BRUSHING SRN DE IN A FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS,
EXCEPT FOR SRN AREAS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME
LOCAL FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
AND IF SOME CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE.
THERE IS SOME REAMING INSTABILITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON THE NOSE OF AN ADVANCING HIGH
PRESSURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND WEAKLY BUILDING HEIGHTS.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW-60S
IN A LOT OF PLACES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WITH
A ZONALISH FLOW DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH THE HIGHER RIDGES COULD HEAT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL CAP PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONG PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN, TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. SURFACE COLD FRONT,
TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, SWINGS THROUGH
LATER ON MONDAY SLOWLY BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED PERIOD.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
RIDGING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING, WEAKENING, A BIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. CURRENT SHWRS AND TSRA WERE GENLY
S OF TAF SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER//NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240415
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE ON SUNDAY SPILLING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE BASICALLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SRN NJ, THE
ADJACENT WATERS AND SRN DE ATTM. EXPECT A FURTHER DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS PRECIP MOVES OFF THE
COAST. THERE IS ANOTHER AREAS OF PRECIP IN SRN MD, THAT COULD END
UP BRUSHING SRN DE IN A FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS,
EXCEPT FOR SRN AREAS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME
LOCAL FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
AND IF SOME CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE.
THERE IS SOME REAMING INSTABILITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON THE NOSE OF AN ADVANCING HIGH
PRESSURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND WEAKLY BUILDING HEIGHTS.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW-60S
IN A LOT OF PLACES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WITH
A ZONALISH FLOW DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH THE HIGHER RIDGES COULD HEAT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL CAP PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONG PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN, TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. SURFACE COLD FRONT,
TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, SWINGS THROUGH
LATER ON MONDAY SLOWLY BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED PERIOD.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
RIDGING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING, WEAKENING, A BIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. CURRENT SHWRS AND TSRA WERE GENLY
S OF TAF SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER//NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE ON SUNDAY SPILLING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT;
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE, THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME
LOCAL FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
AND IF SOME CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE.
THERE IS SOME REAMING INSTABILITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON THE NOSE OF AN ADVANCING HIGH
PRESSURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND WEAKLY BUILDING HEIGHTS.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW-60S
IN A LOT OF PLACES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WITH
A ZONALISH FLOW DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH THE HIGHER RIDGES COULD HEAT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL CAP PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONG PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN, TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. SURFACE COLD FRONT,
TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, SWINGS THROUGH
LATER ON MONDAY SLOWLY BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED PERIOD.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
RIDGING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING, WEAKENING, A BIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD,
AND MAY ONLY AFFECT NORTHEAST PA/NORTH-CENTRAL NJ. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
THE VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST LATE. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM.
LOCALIZED MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GORSE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE ON SUNDAY SPILLING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT;
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE, THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME
LOCAL FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
AND IF SOME CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE.
THERE IS SOME REAMING INSTABILITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON THE NOSE OF AN ADVANCING HIGH
PRESSURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND WEAKLY BUILDING HEIGHTS.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW-60S
IN A LOT OF PLACES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WITH
A ZONALISH FLOW DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH THE HIGHER RIDGES COULD HEAT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL CAP PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONG PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN, TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. SURFACE COLD FRONT,
TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, SWINGS THROUGH
LATER ON MONDAY SLOWLY BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED PERIOD.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
RIDGING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING, WEAKENING, A BIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD,
AND MAY ONLY AFFECT NORTHEAST PA/NORTH-CENTRAL NJ. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
THE VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST LATE. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM.
LOCALIZED MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GORSE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231954
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE ON SUNDAY SPILLING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS, GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AND A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE. THE MOST NOTED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING
CYCLONIC MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FOCUSED MORE TO OUR NORTH AND
SOME OF THIS EVEN LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THIS, AMPLE
INSTABILITY DUE TO A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. SOME SPOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A HEAT INDEX VERY NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
INITIAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED MAINLY TO NEAR A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND ALSO TERRAIN INFLUENCE, AND WILL BE SLOW MOVING GIVEN THE
INITIAL WEAKER WIND FIELDS. THE CONVECTION FARTHEST EAST HAS
STRUGGLED SOME SO FAR. A LAPS SOUNDING AT 19Z NEAR PHILADELPHIA
SHOWED A CAP NEAR 700 MB, HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING /ALSO
A PW VALUE OF 1.7 INCHES/.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS MORE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND/OR THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR, WITH THE GREATER CHC ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TEND TO WEAKEN TOWARD
THE COAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME LOWER INSTABILITY BEYOND SUNSET.
GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING, A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT STILL LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN WEAK SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING GIVEN THE MOIST LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
WE CONTINUED WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST, ALTHOUGH THESE
FADE TO CHC POPS TOWARD THE COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS ASSUMING THE
CONVECTION WEAKENS AT LEAST SOME. WE ALSO CONTINUED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING /NON-SEVERE/ FOR THE AREAS ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE CONVECTION WEAKENS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT, SOME SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY FARTHER
EAST AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO HANG ON.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME LOCAL
FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT AND IF
SOME CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE.
THERE IS SOME REAMING INSTABILITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON THE NOSE OF AN ADVANCING HIGH
PRESSURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND WEAKLY BUILDING HEIGHTS.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW-60S
IN A LOT OF PLACES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WITH
A ZONALISH FLOW DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH THE HIGHER RIDGES COULD HEAT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL CAP PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONG PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN, TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. SURFACE COLD FRONT,
TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, SWINGS THROUGH
LATER ON MONDAY SLOWLY BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED PERIOD.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
RIDGING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING, WEAKENING, A BIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5000 FEET. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF KABE AND KRDG SHOULD ORGANIZE SOME
WITH A BROKEN LINE ARRIVING AT THESE TERMINALS AROUND 22Z, THEN
CONTINUE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING, BEFORE
WEAKENING TOWARD THE COAST. A TIME OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY THE VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER
MARINE...GORSE/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231954
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE ON SUNDAY SPILLING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS, GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AND A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE. THE MOST NOTED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING
CYCLONIC MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FOCUSED MORE TO OUR NORTH AND
SOME OF THIS EVEN LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THIS, AMPLE
INSTABILITY DUE TO A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. SOME SPOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A HEAT INDEX VERY NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
INITIAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED MAINLY TO NEAR A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND ALSO TERRAIN INFLUENCE, AND WILL BE SLOW MOVING GIVEN THE
INITIAL WEAKER WIND FIELDS. THE CONVECTION FARTHEST EAST HAS
STRUGGLED SOME SO FAR. A LAPS SOUNDING AT 19Z NEAR PHILADELPHIA
SHOWED A CAP NEAR 700 MB, HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING /ALSO
A PW VALUE OF 1.7 INCHES/.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS MORE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND/OR THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR, WITH THE GREATER CHC ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TEND TO WEAKEN TOWARD
THE COAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME LOWER INSTABILITY BEYOND SUNSET.
GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING, A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT STILL LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN WEAK SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING GIVEN THE MOIST LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
WE CONTINUED WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST, ALTHOUGH THESE
FADE TO CHC POPS TOWARD THE COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS ASSUMING THE
CONVECTION WEAKENS AT LEAST SOME. WE ALSO CONTINUED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING /NON-SEVERE/ FOR THE AREAS ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE CONVECTION WEAKENS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT, SOME SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY FARTHER
EAST AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO HANG ON.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME LOCAL
FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT AND IF
SOME CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE.
THERE IS SOME REAMING INSTABILITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON THE NOSE OF AN ADVANCING HIGH
PRESSURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND WEAKLY BUILDING HEIGHTS.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW-60S
IN A LOT OF PLACES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WITH
A ZONALISH FLOW DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH THE HIGHER RIDGES COULD HEAT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL CAP PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONG PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN, TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. SURFACE COLD FRONT,
TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, SWINGS THROUGH
LATER ON MONDAY SLOWLY BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED PERIOD.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
RIDGING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING, WEAKENING, A BIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5000 FEET. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF KABE AND KRDG SHOULD ORGANIZE SOME
WITH A BROKEN LINE ARRIVING AT THESE TERMINALS AROUND 22Z, THEN
CONTINUE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING, BEFORE
WEAKENING TOWARD THE COAST. A TIME OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY THE VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER
MARINE...GORSE/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231902
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS, GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AND A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE. THE MOST NOTED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING
CYCLONIC MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FOCUSED MORE TO OUR NORTH AND
SOME OF THIS EVEN LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THIS, AMPLE
INSTABILITY DUE TO A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. SOME SPOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A HEAT INDEX VERY NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
INITIAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED MAINLY TO NEAR A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND ALSO TERRAIN INFLUENCE, AND WILL BE SLOW MOVING GIVEN THE
INITIAL WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS MORE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND/OR THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR, WITH THE GREATER CHC ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TEND TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE
COAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME LOWER INSTABILITY BEYOND SUNSET. GIVEN
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING, A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
STILL LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN WEAK SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION,
HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE MOIST LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. WE CONTINUED WITH
LOW LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST, ALTHOUGH THESE FADE TO CHC POPS
TOWARD THE COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS ASSUMING THE CONVECTION WEAKENS
AT LEAST SOME. WE ALSO CONTINUED SOME ENHANCED WORDING /NON-SEVERE/
FOR THE AREAS ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE CONVECTION WEAKENS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT, SOME SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY FARTHER
EAST AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO HANG ON.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME LOCAL
FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT AND IF SOME
CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND DOMINATES THE WX PATN THRU
THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5000 FEET. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF KABE AND KRDG SHOULD ORGANIZE SOME
WITH A BROKEN LINE ARRIVING AT THESE TERMINALS AROUND 22Z, THEN
CONTINUE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING, BEFORE
WEAKENING TOWARD THE COAST. A TIME OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY THE VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231902
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS, GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AND A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE. THE MOST NOTED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING
CYCLONIC MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FOCUSED MORE TO OUR NORTH AND
SOME OF THIS EVEN LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THIS, AMPLE
INSTABILITY DUE TO A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. SOME SPOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A HEAT INDEX VERY NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
INITIAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED MAINLY TO NEAR A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND ALSO TERRAIN INFLUENCE, AND WILL BE SLOW MOVING GIVEN THE
INITIAL WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS MORE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND/OR THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR, WITH THE GREATER CHC ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TEND TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE
COAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME LOWER INSTABILITY BEYOND SUNSET. GIVEN
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING, A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
STILL LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN WEAK SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION,
HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE MOIST LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. WE CONTINUED WITH
LOW LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST, ALTHOUGH THESE FADE TO CHC POPS
TOWARD THE COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS ASSUMING THE CONVECTION WEAKENS
AT LEAST SOME. WE ALSO CONTINUED SOME ENHANCED WORDING /NON-SEVERE/
FOR THE AREAS ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE CONVECTION WEAKENS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT, SOME SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY FARTHER
EAST AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO HANG ON.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME LOCAL
FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT AND IF SOME
CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND DOMINATES THE WX PATN THRU
THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5000 FEET. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF KABE AND KRDG SHOULD ORGANIZE SOME
WITH A BROKEN LINE ARRIVING AT THESE TERMINALS AROUND 22Z, THEN
CONTINUE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING, BEFORE
WEAKENING TOWARD THE COAST. A TIME OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY THE VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 231540
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1140 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOST NOTED HOWEVER TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING FLOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
70 DEGREES. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE THOUGH GIVEN
A SOUTHERLY WIND. BASED ON SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT BEING MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH AMPLE HEATING THE DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER A LITTLE,
AND THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX DURING PEAK HEATING SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S IN THE WILMINGTON TO PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON METROS.
THEREFORE, NO HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED ATTM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARRIVING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE HOT AIRMASS, AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PRESENT FROM ABOUT
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD. MOST OF OUR CONVECTION HOWEVER LOOKS
TO WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED A CAP BETWEEN 700 MB AND
600 MB. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW /NOT ZERO/ THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN A LACK OF BULK SHEAR /500 MB WINDS LESS THAN 30
KNOTS/ DESPITE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, ANY STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE HELD TO NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND/OR
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST DAMAGING WIND GUST /DRY AIR
ALOFT/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN THE HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SOME TWEAKS TO THE POPS WERE MADE, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. WE
DID SHAVE BACK THE ENHANCED WORDING SOME ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW
POPS.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE ATTM TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5000 FEET. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF KABE AND KRDG THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PROBABLY NOT ARRIVING AT THESE TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF GUSTY WEST WINDS
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINLY 10-15
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING, BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD THE COAST.
A TIME OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY THE VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS,
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE. GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
IN A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231540
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1140 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOST NOTED HOWEVER TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING FLOW. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
70 DEGREES. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE THOUGH GIVEN
A SOUTHERLY WIND. BASED ON SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT BEING MIXED TO
THE SURFACE WITH AMPLE HEATING THE DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER A LITTLE,
AND THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX DURING PEAK HEATING SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S IN THE WILMINGTON TO PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON METROS.
THEREFORE, NO HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED ATTM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARRIVING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE HOT AIRMASS, AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PRESENT FROM ABOUT
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD. MOST OF OUR CONVECTION HOWEVER LOOKS
TO WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED A CAP BETWEEN 700 MB AND
600 MB. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW /NOT ZERO/ THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN A LACK OF BULK SHEAR /500 MB WINDS LESS THAN 30
KNOTS/ DESPITE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, ANY STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE HELD TO NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND/OR
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST DAMAGING WIND GUST /DRY AIR
ALOFT/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN THE HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SOME TWEAKS TO THE POPS WERE MADE, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. WE
DID SHAVE BACK THE ENHANCED WORDING SOME ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW
POPS.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE ATTM TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5000 FEET. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF KABE AND KRDG THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PROBABLY NOT ARRIVING AT THESE TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 21Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF GUSTY WEST WINDS
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINLY 10-15
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING, BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD THE COAST.
A TIME OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY THE VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS,
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE. GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
IN A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 231309
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
909 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOST NOTED HOWEVER TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWER
90S ACROSS MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON /18C 850 MB TEMPERATURE ON THE
12Z STERLING, VA RAOB/. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE POCONOS
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. GIVEN DEW POINTS NEAR 70, THE HEAT
INDEX DURING PEAK HEATING SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S IN THE
WILMINGTON TO PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON METROS. THEREFORE, NO HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUED ATTM. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PHILADELPHIA WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARRIVING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HOT
AIRMASS, MOST OF OUR CONVECTION LOOKS TO WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 12Z STERLING, VA
RAOB SHOWED A CAP BETWEEN 700 MB AND 600 MB. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW /NOT ZERO/ THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN A LACK OF
BULK SHEAR /500 MB WINDS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS/ AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO
1600 J/KG. AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST DAMAGING WIND GUST /DRY AIR ALOFT/
CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN THE HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.
OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME MVFR BASES FROM ABOUT KPHL ON EASTWARD /IFR AROUND KMIV
AND KACY/ SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE
HEATING. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5000 FEET. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF KABE AND KRDG THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THEY MAY NOT ARRIVE TO THESE TERMINALS UNTIL
ABOUT 22Z ONWARD WITH BRIEF GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY
IFR STRATUS/FOG MIGHT FORM WHERE IT RAINED IN EVENING. GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN, KPNE,
KPHL, AND KILG.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
534 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER
SOUTHERN DELAWARE WITH SCT CLOUDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE NEAR 5000
FT AS THE KI BUILDS WITH A LEADING EDGE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHESAPEAKE BAY PER MULTI
MODEL KI CONSENSUS? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS
AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z
DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE
CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 5 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG.
EXCEPTION SOUTHERN DE TO THE S TIP OF NJ WHERE IFR CIGS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. IFR CIGS MAY GRAZE KMIV
THIS MORNING TIL 13-14Z? OTHERWISE...BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT WINDS
SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY EVEN IF THE CURRENT 8 SECOND PERIOD INCREASES TO
10 SECONDS FOR A 1.5 TO 2 FT SE SWELL. THE FCST WAS FACTORED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON STRONGEST SSE WIND TO 15 KT. TO BE SAFEST...SWIM
IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS. THE NO SWIMMING SIGNS MEAN JUST THAT AND
LIKELY WERE POSTED BECAUSE OF SOME SORT OF HIGHLY ADVERSE EVENT AT
THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE PAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  535
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 535
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 535






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
534 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER
SOUTHERN DELAWARE WITH SCT CLOUDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE NEAR 5000
FT AS THE KI BUILDS WITH A LEADING EDGE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHESAPEAKE BAY PER MULTI
MODEL KI CONSENSUS? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS
AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z
DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE
CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 5 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG.
EXCEPTION SOUTHERN DE TO THE S TIP OF NJ WHERE IFR CIGS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. IFR CIGS MAY GRAZE KMIV
THIS MORNING TIL 13-14Z? OTHERWISE...BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT WINDS
SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY EVEN IF THE CURRENT 8 SECOND PERIOD INCREASES TO
10 SECONDS FOR A 1.5 TO 2 FT SE SWELL. THE FCST WAS FACTORED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON STRONGEST SSE WIND TO 15 KT. TO BE SAFEST...SWIM
IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS. THE NO SWIMMING SIGNS MEAN JUST THAT AND
LIKELY WERE POSTED BECAUSE OF SOME SORT OF HIGHLY ADVERSE EVENT AT
THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE PAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  535
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 535
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 535







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
PATCHY CLOUDINESS FORMING...AOA 5000 FT AS A SEPARATE KI AXIS
DEVELOPS OVER NJ/EPA TOWARD 12Z.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2
KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT
CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB
WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 3 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG. LIGHT
S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER
22Z WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT
WINDS SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
PATCHY CLOUDINESS FORMING...AOA 5000 FT AS A SEPARATE KI AXIS
DEVELOPS OVER NJ/EPA TOWARD 12Z.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2
KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT
CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB
WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 3 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG. LIGHT
S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER
22Z WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT
WINDS SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BETTER
RETURN FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY SPILLING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
PATCHY CLOUDINESS FORMING...AOA 5000 FT AS A SEPARATE KI AXIS
DEVELOPS OVER NJ/EPA TOWARD 12Z.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2
KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT
CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB
WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 3 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG. LIGHT
S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER
22Z WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT
WINDS SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 3A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 3A







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BETTER
RETURN FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY SPILLING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
PATCHY CLOUDINESS FORMING...AOA 5000 FT AS A SEPARATE KI AXIS
DEVELOPS OVER NJ/EPA TOWARD 12Z.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2
KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT
CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB
WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 3 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG. LIGHT
S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER
22Z WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT
WINDS SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 3A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 3A






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 1230 AM FURTHER ESTF UPDATE HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE FOG
IN THE FCST AND DELAYED IT. TOO MUCH TT/TD SPREAD AT 04Z.

FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
FOGGER TOOL.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE ATLC SHORE
A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER BEREFT
OF HEAT.

HAVE WITHDRAWN MORNING THUNDER IN E PA AND NW NJ.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1231A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1231A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 1230 AM FURTHER ESTF UPDATE HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE FOG
IN THE FCST AND DELAYED IT. TOO MUCH TT/TD SPREAD AT 04Z.

FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
FOGGER TOOL.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE ATLC SHORE
A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER BEREFT
OF HEAT.

HAVE WITHDRAWN MORNING THUNDER IN E PA AND NW NJ.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1231A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1231A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 1230 AM FURTHER ESTF UPDATE HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE FOG
IN THE FCST AND DELAYED IT. TOO MUCH TT/TD SPREAD AT 04Z.

FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
FOGGER TOOL.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE ATLC SHORE
A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER BEREFT
OF HEAT.

HAVE WITHDRAWN MORNING THUNDER IN E PA AND NW NJ.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1231A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1231A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 1230 AM FURTHER ESTF UPDATE HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE FOG
IN THE FCST AND DELAYED IT. TOO MUCH TT/TD SPREAD AT 04Z.

FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
FOGGER TOOL.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE ATLC SHORE
A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER BEREFT
OF HEAT.

HAVE WITHDRAWN MORNING THUNDER IN E PA AND NW NJ.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1231A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1231A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230417
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1217 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 1130 PM UPDATE DELAYED THE ONSET OF FOG SLIGHTLY...AND ADJUSTED
THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATE EVENING TRENDS.

FAIR OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG LATE. MOST OF IT SHOULD BE CONFINED
THE I78 REGION NWWD.

WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER
BEREFT OF HEAT.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1218A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1218A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 1218A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 1218A







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA
LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 18C OR 19C, SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE.
DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70 RESULTING IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
SOUTHWEST INLAND AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2500
J/KG IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UP IN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD THOUGH AS THE CASE DURING THE SUMMER, IT WILL NOT A QUICK PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND DEEPER TROUGHING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES, AGAIN, COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER ROBUST, AROUND 25
KNOTS...BETTER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE REGION SO WE KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...COULD BE LONG IN THE
TOOTH.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT
MOSTLY MVFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. THE EXCEPTION
IS AT KRDG WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS, AT KRDG, IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION
AFTER 21Z, AND FOR MUCH OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST, STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 6 KNOTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA
LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 18C OR 19C, SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE.
DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70 RESULTING IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
SOUTHWEST INLAND AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2500
J/KG IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UP IN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD THOUGH AS THE CASE DURING THE SUMMER, IT WILL NOT A QUICK PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND DEEPER TROUGHING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES, AGAIN, COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER ROBUST, AROUND 25
KNOTS...BETTER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE REGION SO WE KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...COULD BE LONG IN THE
TOOTH.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT
MOSTLY MVFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. THE EXCEPTION
IS AT KRDG WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS, AT KRDG, IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION
AFTER 21Z, AND FOR MUCH OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST, STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 6 KNOTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221953
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAINED FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CUMULUS. IT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THERE WERE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN LANCASTER COUNTY
AND VICINITY AT MID AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND CHESTER COUNTY UP INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY UNTIL ABOUT 6 OR 7 O`CLOCK.

THE CUMULUS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT,
THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA
LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 18C OR 19C, SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE.
DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70 RESULTING IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
SOUTHWEST INLAND AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2500
J/KG IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UP IN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD THOUGH AS THE CASE DURING THE SUMMER, IT WILL NOT A QUICK PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND DEEPER TROUGHING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES, AGAIN, COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER ROBUST, AROUND 25
KNOTS...BETTER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE REGION SO WE KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...COULD BE LONG IN THE
TOOTH.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4000 TO 5000
FOOT RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG AND KABE. THE CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221953
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAINED FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CUMULUS. IT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THERE WERE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN LANCASTER COUNTY
AND VICINITY AT MID AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND CHESTER COUNTY UP INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY UNTIL ABOUT 6 OR 7 O`CLOCK.

THE CUMULUS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT,
THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA
LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 18C OR 19C, SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE.
DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70 RESULTING IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
SOUTHWEST INLAND AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2500
J/KG IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UP IN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD THOUGH AS THE CASE DURING THE SUMMER, IT WILL NOT A QUICK PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND DEEPER TROUGHING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES, AGAIN, COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER ROBUST, AROUND 25
KNOTS...BETTER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE REGION SO WE KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...COULD BE LONG IN THE
TOOTH.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4000 TO 5000
FOOT RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG AND KABE. THE CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO THE WATERS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY
E PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND OVER THE FAR UPPER
DELMARVA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET. THE
CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO THE WATERS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY
E PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND OVER THE FAR UPPER
DELMARVA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET. THE
CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FOOT
RANGE EXTENDED FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE CLOUD DECK HAS
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR FROM THE WEST
CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST A BIT FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FOR TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E
PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA AND NE MD THIS MORNING
OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE
SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE
LESS URBAN TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FOOT
RANGE EXTENDED FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE CLOUD DECK HAS
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR FROM THE WEST
CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST A BIT FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FOR TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E
PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA AND NE MD THIS MORNING
OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE
SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE
LESS URBAN TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...CURRENTLY AT 10Z PATCHY CLOUDINESS POCONOS MOVING
NORTHWARD...AND THE BIGGER N-S BAND FROM CENTRAL PA TO DC EDGING
EAST WITH PATCHY CLOUDINESS JUST W OF KPHL TO THRU CHESTER COUNTY.

ALL THIS WITH SOME PATCHY THIN FOG.

AFTER 12Z...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SPARSE ON THE SHOWERS IN E PA AND NNJ AND SO
THEY SHOULDNT MAKE MUCH IMPACT...IF ANY.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA - NE MD AND FAR N DE
TODAY THAN CURRENTLY FCST?

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E PA AND NW NJ. ANY
SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE
00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BELOW 5000 FT JUST W OF PHL SHOULD STAY
WEST OF PHL. LARGER N-S BAND OF LOWER CIGS CENTRAL PA TO DCA EDGING
EAST SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN KPHL OR BE A FACTOR IN KPHL FCST TODAY.
PATCHY THIN FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD
AND DE THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 630A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 630A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...CURRENTLY AT 10Z PATCHY CLOUDINESS POCONOS MOVING
NORTHWARD...AND THE BIGGER N-S BAND FROM CENTRAL PA TO DC EDGING
EAST WITH PATCHY CLOUDINESS JUST W OF KPHL TO THRU CHESTER COUNTY.

ALL THIS WITH SOME PATCHY THIN FOG.

AFTER 12Z...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SPARSE ON THE SHOWERS IN E PA AND NNJ AND SO
THEY SHOULDNT MAKE MUCH IMPACT...IF ANY.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA - NE MD AND FAR N DE
TODAY THAN CURRENTLY FCST?

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E PA AND NW NJ. ANY
SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE
00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BELOW 5000 FT JUST W OF PHL SHOULD STAY
WEST OF PHL. LARGER N-S BAND OF LOWER CIGS CENTRAL PA TO DCA EDGING
EAST SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN KPHL OR BE A FACTOR IN KPHL FCST TODAY.
PATCHY THIN FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD
AND DE THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 630A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 630A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220843
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
443 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD WAS BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KILG. OTRW PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VIRTUALLY ALL
OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KILG.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA NE MD AND FAR N DE TODAY
THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 1500-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG KILG
WITH SCT CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE BY 12Z
AND POSSIBLE CIGS NEAR 2000 FT VCNTY KPHL AROUND 11Z OR 12Z. OTRW
VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT SOUTH
WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD AND DE
THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG
THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG  442A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 442A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220843
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
443 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD WAS BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KILG. OTRW PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VIRTUALLY ALL
OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KILG.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA NE MD AND FAR N DE TODAY
THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 1500-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG KILG
WITH SCT CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE BY 12Z
AND POSSIBLE CIGS NEAR 2000 FT VCNTY KPHL AROUND 11Z OR 12Z. OTRW
VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT SOUTH
WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD AND DE
THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG
THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG  442A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 442A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






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