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000
FXUS61 KPHI 272014
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
414 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front from the eastern Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley
will cross eastern sections of Pennsylvania and Maryland Tuesday
afternoon where low pressure will form.  The front and area of low
pressure will drift east, off the mid Atlantic coast Wednesday
morning. Weak high pressure follows Thursday. Another cold front
will move through the region Friday night or Saturday and then stall
to our south later in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers are moving across eastern Pennsylvania late this afternoon
and will progress eastward through this evening. These showers are
associated with a weak surface trough and short wave/vorticity
impulse aloft. There is not much instability, so lightning activity
has been minimal, and should continue into this evening. We will
still keep a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast however.

The weak trough will stall our near the area overnight, and another
stronger short wave/vorticity impulse is expected to approach the
area toward daybreak Tuesday. This may help enhance increase showers
potential across the southern areas overnight into daybreak. PW
values increase overnight, so if showers or thunderstorms do
develop, they could produce some moderate to heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Showers could be ongoing at the start of the day Tuesday across the
eastern portions of the area as the initial short wave/vorticity
impulse moves across the area. By the late morning into early
afternoon, the first round of showers may begin to move out and we
could get a brief break in shower/thunderstorm activity. However,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop to our west during
the day as the cold front approaches from the west. There is a
moderate amount of instability and shear to our west, so
thunderstorms could become strong during the day. The instability
weakens some as does the shear moving into our area, so the greatest
threat for severe weather may be north and west of our area.
However, there will still be the possibility for gusty winds and
small hail across our northern areas, so we`ve included this in the
forecast. PW values drop some during the day, but should still be
near 1.5 inches, so there could still be the possibility for some
moderate to heavy rainfall with some showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A -1SD short wave nearing Buffalo NY Tuesday Night weakens
eastward Wednesday. A developing -2SD short wave trough moves
across Lake Huron Friday night.

Temperatures: The month of June through the first 26 days has
averaged 1 to 2 degrees above normal at PHL, RDG, ABE, TTN, within
.5 of normal at GED ACY and ILG and surprisingly -1F at MPO.
the final monthly departures should be within 3 tenths of degrees
of those listed above.

Calendar day averages over this coming long term period of Wednesday-
Sunday should average near normal, some days a bit above, others a
bit below.

Forecast basis: Unless otherwise noted, a 50 50 blend of the 12z/27
GFS/NAM MOS guidance Tuesday night - Wednesday night, thereafter the
12z/27 GFS MEX MOS for Thursday-Thursday night and WPC Guidance
Friday-Monday. Max temperature guidance was on some days modified
warmer by the previous 330 am PHI forecast as well as warmer 12z/27
ECMWF 18z 2m forecast temperatures. Nighttime lows were lowered
below guidance Wednesday morning and Friday morning across e PA
and nw NJ, where the radiating countryside should get down close
to the 12z/27GFS forecast 09z 2m temps.

Rainfall: not a bright outlook for alot of needed rainfall...it certainly
doesn`t look as if above normal rainfall can transpire in this
pattern.

The dailies...

Tuesday night...Any showers and scattered thunderstorms during the
evening, will tend to die out late at night. At most a marginal risk
of svr with 1000J of MLCape to start Delmarva area and 0-6KM bulk
shear increasing late evening but appears to arrive too late for
much impact in our CWA. Seems more like an SPS/MWS evening...marginal.
PWAT decreasing from 1.5". Confidence: average.

Wednesday...Tending to dry out and looking like a very nice
summers afternoon after morning skycover clears. PWAT around 1
inch. Cooling afternoon sea breeze possible along the immediate
coast. Seasonable temps. Confidence: above average.

Thursday...Dry and nice with cooling coastal seabreezes. Small
chance of a shower or thunderstorm along the coasts Thursday night
in response to the western edge of an instability burst developing
northeastward near the mid Atlantic coast. PWAT overall near 0.85
inches. Seasonable temps. Confidence: above average.

Friday...much less confidence on the days outcome both temps and
rainfall. Chance of a shower. Very warm...a bit above normal in
some areas. Confidence: below average

Saturday...Hot. Could be strong thunderstorms on the Delmarva late
day or Saturday night where pretty good instability and significant
0-6km bulk shear (40 kt) are modeled though MLCAPE is so far, is
modeled relatively low. Temps could reach the lower 90s in the
I-95 corridor. Confidence: average.

Sunday...Could have a lingering shower or thunderstorm threat in
association with the se Canada trough. Confidence: below average.

Monday (July 4)...For now it looks like a good day for outdoor
activity. Warm. Confidence: average or above average.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions continue across the area late this afternoon/early
this evening across the TAF sites. An area of showers is moving into
our western areas, and will continue eastward through this evening.
It is possible that some showers may be heavy enough to lower
visibilities to 5-6 miles, so we will continue our TEMPO group with
the potential. This line of showers will move eastward and dissipate
through the evening, then we could be mostly dry for a good portion
of the overnight. More shower activity could develop and move into
the area around daybreak from the south and spread northward through
the morning. Additional showers and possible thunderstorms are
expected late in the day Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the
west.

Ceilings and visibilities are expected to begin to lower to MVFR
then IFR late this evening and overnight as moisture gets trapped
underneath a low level inversion. This will likely continue through
the day tomorrow ahead of the approaching cold front, although the
IFR may lift to MVFR during the day.

South-southwest winds continue for most inland areas, while closer
to the coast winds are more south-southeast. Sustained winds are
around 10 knots, with some gusts 15-20 knots. The winds will lighten
some after sunset, and become south-southeast everywhere 5-10 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Confidence on the periods discussed below is average or above
average,

Tuesday night...scattered leftover showers and isolated thunderstorms
should diminish and end. Patchy IFR stratus/fog should develop late.

Wednesday...becoming VFR after any early morning IFR stratus/fog
rapidly clears. Light west wind except possible afternoon sea
breezes coasts.

Thursday...VFR. Light west wind with coastal afternoon sea breezes.
Patchy IFR stratus/fog may develop late.

Friday...VFR. A chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly
west of I-95 and during the afternoon-early evening hours.

Saturday...VFR. Chance of late day-or night time thunderstorms
Delmarva. Right now the northern fringe is in our area and some of
those storms could be strong.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on the waters will continue to gust in the low 20s for this
afternoon into the early evening. A few gusts around 25 knots may
occur across the far northern waters off the coast of Monmouth, but
we believe they will be infrequent and brief enough to preclude the
need for a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will diminish some overnight,
but should increase in gusts again Tuesday. Wind direction will
continue to be from the south to southeast tonight into Tuesday.

A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible tonight into Tuesday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today, and this may
continue into Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday night through Saturday... Winds and seas expected to remain
below SCA criteria. A chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms
with a slow-moving cold front Tuesday night and then again Saturday,
with small chance of a shower Thursday night or Friday.

RIP CURRENTS...low to possibly moderate at times this week, in part
dependent on the amount of onshore wind. In other words, not much
change from the somewhat active month of June. AWARENESS: weak swimmers
for their own safety should swim in the presence of lifeguards.
It is not worth being a rip current victim by swimming near jetties,
or after the lifeguards go home, or with untrained weak swimming
bystanders who wont be capable of saving a distressed swimmer,
except to call 911, which then could be too late.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Presuming less than one half of rain falls between now and the end
of June,  Allentown could end up top 10 driest June on record with
the period of record back to 1922. Currently, as of 4 PM, Allentown`s
1.37" ranks #7 driest.

Elsewhere, with no additional rainfall, Atlantic City (1.32")
would rank 15th driest and Philadelphia (1.24") 14th driest.

For the month so far, deficits were generally 1.5 to 2.5 inches except
nil at KILG and near 1.5" KGED and KACY. That is generally 25 to
50 percent of normal (except near normal parts of DE).

Until we get any tropical rains, or the trough sharpens in the Ohio
Valley, the northeast states trough pattern is unfavorable for
persistent high humidity and associated widespread substantial
thunderstorm generated rainfall. Operational and ensembles so far
for at least the next 7 days, tend to keep paths of heavier rains
to the south and north of our forecast area. In other words no
significant change in we`ve been seeing the past month.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag 414
Near Term...Robertson 414
Short Term...Robertson 414
Long Term...Drag 414
Aviation...Drag/Robertson 414
Marine...Drag/Robertson 414
Climate...Drag 414




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271349
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
949 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored off the East Coast today. A cold
front will slowly approach from the northwest early in the week
while low pressure tracks eastward across Canada. The front is
expected to stall over the area late Tuesday and Wednesday before
finally moving offshore by Wednesday evening. High pressure builds
into the area Thursday. Another cold front will move through the
region Friday night or Saturday and then stall to our south later in
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes so far today. We did raise temps a degree
or two for most places, and made some adjustments to the cloud
cover forecast. The fog across the south has begun to lift and
dissipate, but low clouds do remain across southern New Jersey and
the Delmarva. These clouds will continue through the morning and
into the afternoon, but continue to break apart some.

Outside of the low clouds this morning, we should see an increase
in high clouds followed by altocu and stratocu later today from
west to east. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to move
into the area later this afternoon into this evening. Although
CAPE is on the lower end of the spectrum later today, we could
still see an isolated thunderstorm; SPC has us in the General
category. The actual synoptic cold front will remain well to our
west today. The main cause of the showers will be a combination of
a weak shortwave, pre-frontal trof, and/or terrain.

Normal temps for KPHL is 85/67. We`ll end up about normal for the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Besides isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the models
are in good agreement regarding low clouds and fog. As mentioned
what`s just beginning to form across Delmarva and far southern NJ
could be more widespread in 24 hours in the increasing southerly
flow.

Lows will be in the 60s to maybe 70 in Center City with clouds
overhead...about 5 to 10 degrees warmer from where we are right now.
Dewpoints will be up the same.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough will be positioned just to our west on the lee
side of the Appalachians Tuesday morning while a cold front is
near the eastern Great Lakes. The cold front will likely jump the
Appalachians and reorganize along the lee trough on Tuesday. NWP
guidance has come into better agreement with the latest 00Z run
regarding the timing of the cold front in the forecast area. This
slow-moving front should arrive in our western zones Tuesday
evening and then likely stall near the Delaware Valley/I-95
corridor late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a result of
downstream blocking offshore.

Despite a clearer picture on the synoptic scale, there is still
considerable forecast uncertainty regarding the timing, coverage and
intensity of showers and thunderstorms for this next event. Model
differences seem to be partially tied to how quickly the primary
cold front transfers its energy downstream to the lee trough and
how much instability to develop to fuel the convection in the
pre-frontal warm sector. Until the details in the mesoscale
become clearer, we`ll have be somewhat conservative with PoPs and
broaden the range of possibilities for potential impacts from
convection for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest thinking (although subject to change) is the bulk of the
leftover showers from tonight should move off the coast sometime
during the morning on Tuesday. Then another round of showers and
storms will likely form during peak heating Tuesday afternoon
near the surface trough/cold front either to our west or in our
far western zones of eastern PA. Forecast soundings show the
potential for a moderate amount of instability (MLCAPE above 1000
J/KG) to develop in the warm sector during the afternoon in areas
that see more persistent breaks in the cloud cover. A few locally
strong to severe thunderstorms may develop in this scenario.
Thermodynamic profiles off the 00Z GFS and NAM are supportive of
wet microbursts that could contain damaging winds with a
significant mid-level dry layer evident above a moist boundary
layer. This convection will eventually progress eastward toward
the I-95 corridor late in the day (perhaps after sunset) and then
our coastal communities Tuesday night. If the front remains
stalled over the area through much of the day Wednesday, then
another round of showers and storms could certainly develop during
peak heating. PoPs on Wednesday increase as you get closer to the
coast due to the proximity of the front.

Although there is not much support in the model QPF fields, it`s
difficult to dismiss a potential of at least locally heavy
rainfall and poor drainage flooding or even urban flash flooding
whenever you have a front stalled over the area this time of
year. The dry antecedent conditions would lessen the risk of
flooding. Additionally, the best forcing for ascent from this
system looks to stay to our north as the upper low lifts into
northern New England/southeastern Canada.

High pressure will build in from the Midwest Wednesday night. The
high moves overhead on Thursday and then starts to move offshore
Thursday night. Expect dry conditions during this part of the period.

The upper flow pattern re-amplifies by the weekend as additional
shortwave energy digs around the backside of the trough the Great
Lakes and Canada. Low pressure will track well to our north but
it will drag a cold front through the area sometime Friday into
Saturday. Synoptic lift with this system looks to be weak this
far south, so coverage of showers and storms may be limited. The
front may stall nearby to our south later in the weekend as the
boundary becomes increasingly parallel to the westerly steering
flow at the base of the upper trough. The proximity of the front
to our area will determine if we are able to dry out for Sunday
or continue this unsettled weather pattern through the remainder
of the weekend. The forecast is much more optimistic for the
northern half of the area vs the southern half.

Near normal temperatures are expected for our region over the next
week. In general, this equates to highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s. The core of the heat will remain over the western and southern
CONUS due to the persistent troughing over the northeastern
quadrant of the CONUS through the duration of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly VFR outside of ACY/MIV. Conditions have improved
from IFR, to now MVFR at ACY/MIV. It should take several more
hours before a return to VFR there.

A few showers or a thunderstorm are possible toward mid to late
afternoon, especially west of the I95 terminals resulting in
MVFR. Light and variable winds this morning will become southerly
and increase to 10 knots this afternoon.

Tonight...Outside of any showers or thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected this evening. After midnight, multiple models indicate
low clouds and fog will work into the area. We started with this
idea and introduced IFR.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may produce temporary/localized cig/vsby
restrictions. A few thunderstorms could also contain locally gusty
winds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR.

Friday...A chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly west
of I-95 and during the afternoon-early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. South to southeast
winds may gust to around 20 knots.

Tonight...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. South to southeast
winds will gust to around 15 knots. There`s a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday... Winds and seas expected to remain below
SCA criteria. A chance for thunderstorms with a slow-moving cold
front Tuesday-Wednesday and then again on Friday. Storms,
especially on Tuesday afternoon and evening, may contain locally
strong winds.

RIP CURRENTS...For today, looks like a low risk this morning
increasing to a moderate risk this afternoon once again due to a
strengthening southerly flow that may turn southeast. This will be
combined with 3 foot seas.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Kruzdlo/Robertson
Short Term...Kruzdlo
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Kruzdlo/Robertson
Marine...Klein/Kruzdlo




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270813
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored off the East Coast today. A cold
front will slowly approach from the northwest early in the week
while low pressure tracks eastward across Canada. The front is
expected to stall over the area late Tuesday and Wednesday before
finally moving offshore by Wednesday evening. High pressure builds
into the area Thursday. Another cold front will move through the
region Friday night or Saturday and then stall to our south later in
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface observations and 11u-3.9u satellite imagery show low clouds
and fog forming across the Delmarva, far southern NJ, and adjacent
nearshore waters. The low clouds and fog should dissipate today, but
may be a precursor/indicator for what`s to come later tonight.

Outside the low clouds this morning, we should see an increase in
high clouds followed by altocu and stratocu later today. The first
sign of any POPS is at 16z across the far western zones. The POPS
are small. These low POPS spread into the Delaware Valley around 21z
and to the coast about 00z/28. Can`t rule out thunder although CAPE
is on the lower end of the spectrum later today. SPC has us in the
General category. A cold front will remain well to our west today.
Shouldn`t make it east of State College. Today`s drivers could be a
combination of a weak shortwave, pre-frontal trof, and/or terrain.

Normal temps for KPHL is 85/67. We`ll end up about normal for the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Besides isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the models
are in good agreement regarding low clouds and fog. As mentioned
what`s just beginning to form across Delmarva and far southern NJ
could be more widespread in 24 hours in the increasing southerly
flow.

Lows will be in the 60s to maybe 70 in Center City with clouds
overhead...about 5 to 10 degrees warmer from where we are right now.
Dewpoints will be up the same.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough will be positioned just to our west on the lee
side of the Appalachians Tuesday morning while a cold front is
near the eastern Great Lakes. The cold front will likely jump the
Appalachians and reorganize along the lee trough on Tuesday. NWP
guidance has come into better agreement with the latest 00Z run
regarding the timing of the cold front in the forecast area. This
slow-moving front should arrive in our western zones Tuesday
evening and then likely stall near the Delaware Valley/I-95
corridor late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a result of
downstream blocking offshore.

Despite a clearer picture on the synoptic scale, there is still
considerable forecast uncertainty regarding the timing, coverage and
intensity of showers and thunderstorms for this next event. Model
differences seem to be partially tied to how quickly the primary
cold front transfers its energy downstream to the lee trough and
how much instability to develop to fuel the convection in the
pre-frontal warm sector. Until the details in the mesoscale
become clearer, we`ll have be somewhat conservative with PoPs and
broaden the range of possibilities for potential impacts from
convection for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest thinking (although subject to change) is the bulk of the
leftover showers from tonight should move off the coast sometime
during the morning on Tuesday. Then another round of showers and
storms will likely form during peak heating Tuesday afternoon
near the surface trough/cold front either to our west or in our
far western zones of eastern PA. Forecast soundings show the
potential for a moderate amount of instability (MLCAPE above 1000
J/KG) to develop in the warm sector during the afternoon in areas
that see more persistent breaks in the cloud cover. A few locally
strong to severe thunderstorms may develop in this scenario.
Thermodynamic profiles off the 00Z GFS and NAM are supportive of
wet microbursts that could contain damaging winds with a
significant mid-level dry layer evident above a moist boundary
layer. This convection will eventually progress eastward toward
the I-95 corridor late in the day (perhaps after sunset) and then
our coastal communities Tuesday night. If the front remains
stalled over the area through much of the day Wednesday, then
another round of showers and storms could certainly develop during
peak heating. PoPs on Wednesday increase as you get closer to the
coast due to the proximity of the front.

Although there is not much support in the model QPF fields, it`s
difficult to dismiss a potential of at least locally heavy
rainfall and poor drainage flooding or even urban flash flooding
whenever you have a front stalled over the area this time of
year. The dry antecedent conditions would lessen the risk of
flooding. Additionally, the best forcing for ascent from this
system looks to stay to our north as the upper low lifts into
northern New England/southeastern Canada.

High pressure will build in from the Midwest Wednesday night. The
high moves overhead on Thursday and then starts to move offshore
Thursday night. Expect dry conditions during this part of the period.

The upper flow pattern re-amplifies by the weekend as additional
shortwave energy digs around the backside of the trough the Great
Lakes and Canada. Low pressure will track well to our north but
it will drag a cold front through the area sometime Friday into
Saturday. Synoptic lift with this system looks to be weak this
far south, so coverage of showers and storms may be limited. The
front may stall nearby to our south later in the weekend as the
boundary becomes increasingly parallel to the westerly steering
flow at the base of the upper trough. The proximity of the front
to our area will determine if we are able to dry out for Sunday
or continue this unsettled weather pattern through the remainder
of the weekend. The forecast is much more optimistic for the
northern half of the area vs the southern half.

Near normal temperatures are expected for our region over the next
week. In general, this equates to highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s. The core of the heat will remain over the western and southern
CONUS due to the persistent troughing over the northeastern
quadrant of the CONUS through the duration of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR and/or IFR is possible across the
southern terminals early this morning. A few showers or a
thunderstorm are possible toward mid to late afternoon west of the
I95 terminals resulting in MVFR. Light and variable winds this
morning will become southerly and increase to 10 knots this
afternoon.

Tonight...Outside of any showers or thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected this evening. After midnight, multiple models indicate
low clouds and fog will work into the area. We started with this
idea and introduced IFR.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may produce  temporary/localized cig/vsby
restrictions. A few thunderstorms could also contain locally gusty
winds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR.

Friday...A chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly west
of I-95 and during the afternoon-early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. South to southeast
winds may gust to around 20 knots.

Tonight...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. South to southeast
winds will gust to around 15 knots. There`s a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday... Winds and seas expected to remain below
SCA criteria. A chance for thunderstorms with a slow-moving cold
front Tuesday-Wednesday and then again on Friday. Storms,
especially on Tuesday afternoon and evening, may contain locally
strong winds.

RIP CURRENTS...For today, looks like a low risk this morning
increasing to a moderate risk this afternoon once again due to a
strengthening southerly flow that may turn southeast. This will be
combined with 3 foot seas.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Kruzdlo
Short Term...Kruzdlo
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Kruzdlo
Marine...Klein/Kruzdlo




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270813
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored off the East Coast today. A cold
front will slowly approach from the northwest early in the week
while low pressure tracks eastward across Canada. The front is
expected to stall over the area late Tuesday and Wednesday before
finally moving offshore by Wednesday evening. High pressure builds
into the area Thursday. Another cold front will move through the
region Friday night or Saturday and then stall to our south later in
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface observations and 11u-3.9u satellite imagery show low clouds
and fog forming across the Delmarva, far southern NJ, and adjacent
nearshore waters. The low clouds and fog should dissipate today, but
may be a precursor/indicator for what`s to come later tonight.

Outside the low clouds this morning, we should see an increase in
high clouds followed by altocu and stratocu later today. The first
sign of any POPS is at 16z across the far western zones. The POPS
are small. These low POPS spread into the Delaware Valley around 21z
and to the coast about 00z/28. Can`t rule out thunder although CAPE
is on the lower end of the spectrum later today. SPC has us in the
General category. A cold front will remain well to our west today.
Shouldn`t make it east of State College. Today`s drivers could be a
combination of a weak shortwave, pre-frontal trof, and/or terrain.

Normal temps for KPHL is 85/67. We`ll end up about normal for the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Besides isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the models
are in good agreement regarding low clouds and fog. As mentioned
what`s just beginning to form across Delmarva and far southern NJ
could be more widespread in 24 hours in the increasing southerly
flow.

Lows will be in the 60s to maybe 70 in Center City with clouds
overhead...about 5 to 10 degrees warmer from where we are right now.
Dewpoints will be up the same.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough will be positioned just to our west on the lee
side of the Appalachians Tuesday morning while a cold front is
near the eastern Great Lakes. The cold front will likely jump the
Appalachians and reorganize along the lee trough on Tuesday. NWP
guidance has come into better agreement with the latest 00Z run
regarding the timing of the cold front in the forecast area. This
slow-moving front should arrive in our western zones Tuesday
evening and then likely stall near the Delaware Valley/I-95
corridor late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a result of
downstream blocking offshore.

Despite a clearer picture on the synoptic scale, there is still
considerable forecast uncertainty regarding the timing, coverage and
intensity of showers and thunderstorms for this next event. Model
differences seem to be partially tied to how quickly the primary
cold front transfers its energy downstream to the lee trough and
how much instability to develop to fuel the convection in the
pre-frontal warm sector. Until the details in the mesoscale
become clearer, we`ll have be somewhat conservative with PoPs and
broaden the range of possibilities for potential impacts from
convection for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest thinking (although subject to change) is the bulk of the
leftover showers from tonight should move off the coast sometime
during the morning on Tuesday. Then another round of showers and
storms will likely form during peak heating Tuesday afternoon
near the surface trough/cold front either to our west or in our
far western zones of eastern PA. Forecast soundings show the
potential for a moderate amount of instability (MLCAPE above 1000
J/KG) to develop in the warm sector during the afternoon in areas
that see more persistent breaks in the cloud cover. A few locally
strong to severe thunderstorms may develop in this scenario.
Thermodynamic profiles off the 00Z GFS and NAM are supportive of
wet microbursts that could contain damaging winds with a
significant mid-level dry layer evident above a moist boundary
layer. This convection will eventually progress eastward toward
the I-95 corridor late in the day (perhaps after sunset) and then
our coastal communities Tuesday night. If the front remains
stalled over the area through much of the day Wednesday, then
another round of showers and storms could certainly develop during
peak heating. PoPs on Wednesday increase as you get closer to the
coast due to the proximity of the front.

Although there is not much support in the model QPF fields, it`s
difficult to dismiss a potential of at least locally heavy
rainfall and poor drainage flooding or even urban flash flooding
whenever you have a front stalled over the area this time of
year. The dry antecedent conditions would lessen the risk of
flooding. Additionally, the best forcing for ascent from this
system looks to stay to our north as the upper low lifts into
northern New England/southeastern Canada.

High pressure will build in from the Midwest Wednesday night. The
high moves overhead on Thursday and then starts to move offshore
Thursday night. Expect dry conditions during this part of the period.

The upper flow pattern re-amplifies by the weekend as additional
shortwave energy digs around the backside of the trough the Great
Lakes and Canada. Low pressure will track well to our north but
it will drag a cold front through the area sometime Friday into
Saturday. Synoptic lift with this system looks to be weak this
far south, so coverage of showers and storms may be limited. The
front may stall nearby to our south later in the weekend as the
boundary becomes increasingly parallel to the westerly steering
flow at the base of the upper trough. The proximity of the front
to our area will determine if we are able to dry out for Sunday
or continue this unsettled weather pattern through the remainder
of the weekend. The forecast is much more optimistic for the
northern half of the area vs the southern half.

Near normal temperatures are expected for our region over the next
week. In general, this equates to highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s. The core of the heat will remain over the western and southern
CONUS due to the persistent troughing over the northeastern
quadrant of the CONUS through the duration of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR and/or IFR is possible across the
southern terminals early this morning. A few showers or a
thunderstorm are possible toward mid to late afternoon west of the
I95 terminals resulting in MVFR. Light and variable winds this
morning will become southerly and increase to 10 knots this
afternoon.

Tonight...Outside of any showers or thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected this evening. After midnight, multiple models indicate
low clouds and fog will work into the area. We started with this
idea and introduced IFR.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may produce  temporary/localized cig/vsby
restrictions. A few thunderstorms could also contain locally gusty
winds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR.

Friday...A chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly west
of I-95 and during the afternoon-early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. South to southeast
winds may gust to around 20 knots.

Tonight...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. South to southeast
winds will gust to around 15 knots. There`s a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday... Winds and seas expected to remain below
SCA criteria. A chance for thunderstorms with a slow-moving cold
front Tuesday-Wednesday and then again on Friday. Storms,
especially on Tuesday afternoon and evening, may contain locally
strong winds.

RIP CURRENTS...For today, looks like a low risk this morning
increasing to a moderate risk this afternoon once again due to a
strengthening southerly flow that may turn southeast. This will be
combined with 3 foot seas.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Kruzdlo
Short Term...Kruzdlo
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Kruzdlo
Marine...Klein/Kruzdlo




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270802
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
402 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored off the East Coast today. A cold
front will slowly approach from the northwest early in the week
while low pressure tracks eastward across Canada. The front is
expected to stall over the area late Tuesday and Wednesday before
finally moving offshore by Wednesday evening. High pressure builds
into the area Thursday. Another cold front will move through the
region Friday night or Saturday and then stall to our south later in
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface observations and 11u-3.9u satellite imagery show low clouds
and fog forming across the Delmarva, far southern NJ, and adjacent
nearshore waters. The low clouds and fog should dissipate today, but
may be a precursor/indicator for what`s to come later tonight.

Outside the low clouds this morning, we should see an increase in
high clouds followed by altocu and stratocu later today. The first
sign of any POPS is at 16z across the far western zones. The POPS
are small. These low POPS spread into the Delaware Valley around 21z
and to the coast about 00z/28. Can`t rule out thunder although CAPE
is on the lower end of the spectrum later today. SPC has us in the
General category. A cold front will remain well to our west today.
Shouldn`t make it east of State College. Today`s drivers could be a
combination of a weak shortwave, pre-frontal trof, and/or terrain.

Normal temps for KPHL is 85/67. We`ll end up about normal for the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Besides isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the models
are in good agreement regarding low clouds and fog. As mentioned
what`s just beginning to form across Delmarva and far southern NJ
could be more widespread in 24 hours in the increasing southerly
flow.

Lows will be in the 60s to maybe 70 in Center City with clouds
overhead...about 5 to 10 degrees warmer from where we are right now.
Dewpoints will be up the same.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough will be positioned just to our west on the lee
side of the Appalachians Tuesday morning while a cold front is
near the eastern Great Lakes. The cold front will likely jump the
Appalachians and reorganize along the lee trough on Tuesday. NWP
guidance has come into better agreement with the latest 00Z run
regarding the timing of the cold front in the forecast area. This
slow-moving front should arrive in our western zones Tuesday
evening and then likely stall near the Delaware Valley/I-95
corridor late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a result of
downstream blocking offshore.

Despite a clearer picture on the synoptic scale, there is still
considerable forecast uncertainty regarding the timing, coverage and
intensity of showers and thunderstorms for this next event. Model
differences seem to be partially tied to how quickly the primary
cold front transfers its energy downstream to the lee trough and
how much instability to develop to fuel the convection in the
pre-frontal warm sector. Until the details in the mesoscale
become clearer, we`ll have be somewhat conservative with PoPs and
broaden the range of possibilities for potential impacts from
convection for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest thinking (although subject to change) is the bulk of the
leftover showers from tonight should move off the coast sometime
during the morning on Tuesday. Then another round of showers and
storms will likely form during peak heating Tuesday afternoon
near the surface trough/cold front either to our west or in our
far western zones of eastern PA. Forecast soundings show the
potential for a moderate amount of instability (MLCAPE above 1000
J/KG) to develop in the warm sector during the afternoon in areas
that see more persistent breaks in the cloud cover. A few locally
strong to severe thunderstorms may develop in this scenario.
Thermodynamic profiles off the 00Z GFS and NAM are supportive of
wet microbursts that could contain damaging winds with a
significant mid-level dry layer evident above a moist boundary
layer. This convection will eventually progress eastward toward
the I-95 corridor late in the day (perhaps after sunset) and then
our coastal communities Tuesday night. If the front remains
stalled over the area through much of the day Wednesday, then
another round of showers and storms could certainly develop during
peak heating. PoPs on Wednesday increase as you get closer to the
coast due to the proximity of the front.

Although there is not much support in the model QPF fields, it`s
difficult to dismiss a potential of at least locally heavy
rainfall and poor drainage flooding or even urban flash flooding
whenever you have a front stalled over the area this time of
year. The dry antecedent conditions would lessen the risk of
flooding. Additionally, the best forcing for ascent from this
system looks to stay to our north as the upper low lifts into
northern New England/southeastern Canada.

High pressure will build in from the Midwest Wednesday night. The
high moves overhead on Thursday and then starts to move offshore
Thursday night. Expect dry conditions during this part of the period.

The upper flow pattern re-amplifies by the weekend as additional
shortwave energy digs around the backside of the trough the Great
Lakes and Canada. Low pressure will track well to our north but
it will drag a cold front through the area sometime Friday into
Saturday. Synoptic lift with this system looks to be weak this
far south, so coverage of showers and storms may be limited. The
front may stall nearby to our south later in the weekend as the
boundary becomes increasingly parallel to the westerly steering
flow at the base of the upper trough. The proximity of the front
to our area will determine if we are able to dry out for Sunday
or continue this unsettled weather pattern through the remainder
of the weekend. The forecast is much more optimistic for the
northern half of the area vs the southern half.

Near normal temperatures are expected for our region over the next
week. In general, this equates to highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s. The core of the heat will remain over the western and southern
CONUS due to the persistent troughing over the northeastern
quadrant of the CONUS through the duration of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly VFR. A few showers or a thunderstorm are possible
toward mid to late afternoon west of the I95 terminals resulting in
MVFR. Light and variable winds this morning will become southerly
and increase to 10 knots this afternoon.

Tonight...Outside of any showers or thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected this evening. After midnight, multiple models indicate
low clouds and fog will work into the area. We started with this
idea and introduced IFR.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may produce  temporary/localized cig/vsby
restrictions. A few thunderstorms could also contain locally gusty
winds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR.

Friday...A chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly west
of I-95 and during the afternoon-early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. South to southeast
winds may gust to around 20 knots.

Tonight...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. South to southeast
winds will gust to around 15 knots. There`s a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday... Winds and seas expected to remain below
SCA criteria. A chance for thunderstorms with a slow-moving cold
front Tuesday-Wednesday and then again on Friday. Storms,
especially on Tuesday afternoon and evening, may contain locally
strong winds.

RIP CURRENTS...For today, looks like a low risk this morning
increasing to a moderate risk this afternoon once again due to a
strengthening southerly flow that may turn southeast. This will be
combined with 3 foot seas.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Kruzdlo
Short Term...Kruzdlo
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Kruzdlo
Marine...Klein/Kruzdlo




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270056
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
856 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across our area this evening will move eastward
through the overnight. Low pressure will then track across Canada
early this week. An associated cold front will slowly cross our area
Tuesday before moving offshore by early Wednesday. High pressure
returns later Wednesday into Thursday, then another disturbance will
move through our region sometime next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The western half of surface high pressure over our area this evening
will shift eastward through the overnight. This will result in a
southerly flow, although on the light side. The daytime heating
induced cumulus continue to collapse and dissipate, with just some
high level clouds left. There should be some mid to high level
clouds through the night, with perhaps some increase late across the
southern and western areas ahead of a cold front.

No major changes were made to the forecast with the latest update,
other than to adjust the hourly grids based on current obs and
trends. The LAV/LAMP guidance was blended in through the next
several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Monday will start off quiet with increasing clouds. However, a cold
front begins to approach from the west late in the day, with a
possible pre-frontal trough developing. There is some weak short
wave energy approaching later in the day as well, which could help
enhance some lift across the area and lead to a chance of showers
and some thunderstorms. The best chance for any precipitation during
the day would be the western half of the area.

The increasing pops with an eastward extent was slowed. The bulk of
the lift looks to be tied to the cold front itself, however as
mentioned above some convection may become focus along a pre-frontal
trough or perhaps terrain induced. Since convection may end up being
scattered, maintained the pops increasing into the chance range by
late day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough will be moving towards the area Monday night and
it will affect the weather across the Middle Atlantic region
through wednesday. A weakening cold front will be associated with
the trough and it may stall across the area Tuesday before moving
away Wednesday. This period will be accompanied by mostly chc pops
in the present fcst with a decent chc for a few thunderstorms as
well. Rainfall potential will be linked with the speed of the
front, if it stalls over the area, potential for heavier rains
increase. Temperatures will be near normal Tue and Wed. Cloud
cover may cut into the highs somewhat, so mostly low/mid 80s for
highs and overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s in most areas.
Cooler across the srn Poconos and nrn NJ.

A break in the unsettled weather will arrive later Wed and last into
most of Fri. A weak ridge of high pressure should provide for
lessening pops and a couple seasonably mild days. Highs will be
close to normal these days. There is a slgt chc for a shower or tstm
later Friday. The next system will be moving out of the Great Lakes
as the upper trough again strengthens over the region.

The different models are offering varying solutions with regards to
the end of the week and next weekend. For now, there is a chc for
showers/tstms for Sat. Sunday may turn out dry. No scorching heat
foreseen with the trough remaining over our area. instead,
temperatures will be with in a few degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with some clouds mainly above 15000 feet. Some
localized light fog cannot be ruled out toward daybreak, however
held off including a mention at this time. Southerly winds less than
10 knots, becoming mostly light and variable.

Monday...VFR ceilings developing. A few showers or a thunderstorm
are possible toward mid to late afternoon west of KPHL. Southerly
winds increasing to around 10 knots.

Outlook...
Monday night thru Wednesday morning...Scattered showers and tstms
may bring lower cigs/vsbys.

Wednesday afternoon thru Friday...Mostly VFR. Scattered tstms n/w
Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue across
the waters tonight into Monday. Winds may gust around 20 knots,
especially during the day Monday as the southerly flow increases
ahead of an approaching cold front.

RIP CURRENTS...There is a moderate risk through this evening. For
Monday, opted to go with a moderate risk once again due to a
strengthening southerly flow that may turn southeast along the
coast. This combined with seas about 3 feet may continue to enhance
rip current development Monday.

Outlook...
Mostly sub-sca conditions expected this week. Sct showers/tstms
from Mon night thru early Wed. Fair weather later Wed into Fri
morning. Sct showers tstms Fri afternoon into Sat. Waves mostly
2-4 ft on the ocean thru the week.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse/O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gorse/Robertson
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/Robertson/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270056
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
856 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across our area this evening will move eastward
through the overnight. Low pressure will then track across Canada
early this week. An associated cold front will slowly cross our area
Tuesday before moving offshore by early Wednesday. High pressure
returns later Wednesday into Thursday, then another disturbance will
move through our region sometime next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The western half of surface high pressure over our area this evening
will shift eastward through the overnight. This will result in a
southerly flow, although on the light side. The daytime heating
induced cumulus continue to collapse and dissipate, with just some
high level clouds left. There should be some mid to high level
clouds through the night, with perhaps some increase late across the
southern and western areas ahead of a cold front.

No major changes were made to the forecast with the latest update,
other than to adjust the hourly grids based on current obs and
trends. The LAV/LAMP guidance was blended in through the next
several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Monday will start off quiet with increasing clouds. However, a cold
front begins to approach from the west late in the day, with a
possible pre-frontal trough developing. There is some weak short
wave energy approaching later in the day as well, which could help
enhance some lift across the area and lead to a chance of showers
and some thunderstorms. The best chance for any precipitation during
the day would be the western half of the area.

The increasing pops with an eastward extent was slowed. The bulk of
the lift looks to be tied to the cold front itself, however as
mentioned above some convection may become focus along a pre-frontal
trough or perhaps terrain induced. Since convection may end up being
scattered, maintained the pops increasing into the chance range by
late day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough will be moving towards the area Monday night and
it will affect the weather across the Middle Atlantic region
through wednesday. A weakening cold front will be associated with
the trough and it may stall across the area Tuesday before moving
away Wednesday. This period will be accompanied by mostly chc pops
in the present fcst with a decent chc for a few thunderstorms as
well. Rainfall potential will be linked with the speed of the
front, if it stalls over the area, potential for heavier rains
increase. Temperatures will be near normal Tue and Wed. Cloud
cover may cut into the highs somewhat, so mostly low/mid 80s for
highs and overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s in most areas.
Cooler across the srn Poconos and nrn NJ.

A break in the unsettled weather will arrive later Wed and last into
most of Fri. A weak ridge of high pressure should provide for
lessening pops and a couple seasonably mild days. Highs will be
close to normal these days. There is a slgt chc for a shower or tstm
later Friday. The next system will be moving out of the Great Lakes
as the upper trough again strengthens over the region.

The different models are offering varying solutions with regards to
the end of the week and next weekend. For now, there is a chc for
showers/tstms for Sat. Sunday may turn out dry. No scorching heat
foreseen with the trough remaining over our area. instead,
temperatures will be with in a few degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with some clouds mainly above 15000 feet. Some
localized light fog cannot be ruled out toward daybreak, however
held off including a mention at this time. Southerly winds less than
10 knots, becoming mostly light and variable.

Monday...VFR ceilings developing. A few showers or a thunderstorm
are possible toward mid to late afternoon west of KPHL. Southerly
winds increasing to around 10 knots.

Outlook...
Monday night thru Wednesday morning...Scattered showers and tstms
may bring lower cigs/vsbys.

Wednesday afternoon thru Friday...Mostly VFR. Scattered tstms n/w
Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue across
the waters tonight into Monday. Winds may gust around 20 knots,
especially during the day Monday as the southerly flow increases
ahead of an approaching cold front.

RIP CURRENTS...There is a moderate risk through this evening. For
Monday, opted to go with a moderate risk once again due to a
strengthening southerly flow that may turn southeast along the
coast. This combined with seas about 3 feet may continue to enhance
rip current development Monday.

Outlook...
Mostly sub-sca conditions expected this week. Sct showers/tstms
from Mon night thru early Wed. Fair weather later Wed into Fri
morning. Sct showers tstms Fri afternoon into Sat. Waves mostly
2-4 ft on the ocean thru the week.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse/O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gorse/Robertson
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/Robertson/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261940
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the offshore waters will continue to move east
tonight. Low will track across Canada early this week. A cold front
from this system will slowly progress through the area Tuesday
before moving off the coast by early Wednesday. High pressure
returns later Wednesday into Thursday. Another disturbance will
approach the region Friday and then move through sometime
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure pushes farther offshore tonight and quiet weather
remains across the area. Clouds will dissipate around sunset, but
begin to increase again overnight and toward daybreak. Winds will
become light and variable most places overnight, but any wind
direction will be more south-southwesterly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Monday will start off quiet with increasing clouds. However, A cold
front begins to approach from the west late in the day, with a
possible pre-frontal trough developing. There is some weak vorticity
approaching later in the day as well, which could help enhance some
lift across the area, and lead to a chance of showers and an
isolated thunderstorms. The best chance for any precipitation during
the day would be the western half of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough will be moving towards the area Monday
night and it will affect the weather across the Middle Atlantic
region through wednesday. A weakening cold front will be associated
with the trough and it may stall across the area Tuesday before
moving away Wednesday. This period will be accompanied by mostly chc
pops in the present fcst with a decent chc for a few thunderstorms
as well. Rainfall potential will be linked with the speed of the
front, if it stalls over the area, potential for heavier rains
increase. Temperatures will be near normal Tue and Wed. Cloud cover
may cut into the highs somewhat, so mostly low/mid 80s for highs and
overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s in most areas. Cooler across
the srn Poconos and nrn NJ.

A break in the unsettled weather will arrive later Wed and last into
most of Fri. A weak ridge of high pressure should provide for
lessening pops and a couple seasonably mild days. Highs will be
close to normal these days. There is a slgt chc for a shower or tstm
later Friday. The next system will be moving out of the Great Lakes
as the upper trough again strengthens over the region.

The different models are offering varying solutions with regards to
the end of the week and next weekend. For now, there is a chc for
showers/tstms for Sat. Sunday may turn out dry. No scorching heat
foreseen with the trough remaining over our area. instead,
temperatures will be with in a few degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. An increase is
cumulus cloud activity is occuring this afternoon, but these will
diminish around sunset and mainly high clouds will remain for the
first half of the night. Clouds will begin to lower again toward
daybreak and through the day Monday, but are expected to remain VFR.

Southeast winds across south and eastern New Jersey, as well as
Delmarva, with southwest winds across Pennsylvania and northern
New Jersey, will become light and variable tonight, then pick up
out of the southwest again Monday. Some gusts in the mid teens are
possible by late in the day. A few showers may also be possible
late in the day as well.

outlook...
Mon night thru Wed morning...Sct showers and tstms may bring lower
   cigs/vsbys.

Wed afternoon thru Fri...Mostly VFR. Sct tstms n/w Fri afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue across
the waters tonight into Monday. Winds may gust around 20 knots,
especially during the day Monday as the southerly flow increases
ahead of an approaching cold front.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today, and this may
continue into Monday.

outlook...
Mostly sub-sca conditions expected this week. Sct
showers/tstms from Mon night thru early Wed. Fair weather later Wed
into Fri morning. Sct showers tstms Fri afternoon into Sat. Waves
mostly 2-4 ft on the ocean thru the week.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Robertson/O`Hara
Marine...Robertson/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261619
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1219 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure was centered over the mid-Atlantic and New England
this morning. The high will move offshore tonight and Monday. Low
will track across northeastern Canada early in the week. The cold
front from this system will slowly progress through the area
Tuesday before moving off the coast by early Wednesday. High
pressure returns later Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front
is expected to approach from the northwest Friday and then move
through sometime next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No big changes today as quiet weather remains in across the area
with high pressure in control. We did raise max temperatures a
degree or two in most areas based on 925 mb temps and latest near
term guidance. Some cirrus will move across the area during the
day, with some cumulus development possible, but it should still
look sunny.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The high pres moves ewd tonight as low pres moves acrs ern Canada.
Its assocd cdfnt will be approaching from the w by the end of the
pd. However, overnight still looks dry and mainly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mean upper pattern across the CONUS through the end of the week
will feature persistent ridging along and west of the Rockies and
troughing centered over the Great Lakes. This setup will keep the
heat over the western U.S., well away from the forecast area over
the next seven days. Temperatures in the northern mid-Atlantic
region are expected to be near normal (generally highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s) for the duration of the long-term period. The
large-scale pattern signals at least a potential for somewhat
unsettled conditions with several chances for precipitation to the
area from Monday afternoon through part of Wednesday and then again
Friday into Saturday. However, the smaller-scale details will
determine exactly how unsettled it will be. However, the appreciable
spread seen in the model guidance (e.g., fropa timing issues and
lack of clarity on the mesoscale) casts some uncertainty on exactly
how unsettled the week will be.

On Monday, shortwave energy rounding the base of the large-scale
trough will move into the upper Midwest. At the surface, this system
will feature a cold front that will be advancing southeastward
across the Great Lakes region as well as a pre-frontal trough that
sharpens along the lee side of the Appalachians. While there are
timing differences between operational models, most of the guidance
shows a band of precipitation ahead of the pre-frontal trough that
arrives in our western zones of eastern PA and far northwest NJ late
in the day Monday. Once again removed any mention of thunder from
the forecast for the daytime on Monday with the mid-level subsidence
inversion providing a cap for convection while our area is
positioned underneath the ridge. There is a slight chance that a
thunderstorm develops Monday night, especially across eastern PA and
the Delmarva, as modest elevated instability arrives in conjunction
with the surface trough.

The 00Z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the timing
of the cold front as it passes through the area Tuesday. Except for
the 00Z NAM, the latest guidance has trended toward a more
progressive solution. Although the front slows down as it approaches
the East Coast on Tuesday as a result of downstream blocking over
the western Atlantic Ocean, it likely will not have the chance to
stall over the area as a weak wave of low pressure that develops
along the front should provide a push offshore once the low moves
northeast of the area Tuesday night. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front during peak heating
Tuesday afternoon and then continue into Tuesday night. The threat
of heavy rain is trended lower with the front no longer expected to
stall over the area.

On Wednesday, we expect precipitation to end and skies to clear from
west to east behind the front. Dry conditions continues through
Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the Midwest and
settles overhead.

The longwave trough sharpens over central Canada-Great Lakes region
late in the week as more shortwave energy digs around the back-
side of the trough. Chances for showers and storms increase Friday
afternoon and Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions continue across the TAF sites today and tonight.
Some cirrus will move across the area during the day, with some
cumulus development possible, but it should still look sunny.

A S to SW wind will increase durg the day but will remain under
10 kts. After sunset wind will decrease to under 5 kts once again.

OUTLOOK...

Monday through Tuesday night...Temporary/local MVFR or IFR
restrictions possible with scattered showers and storms. Showers
look to arrive into our western terminals late Monday afternoon and
I-95 terminals Monday night. Best chance for thunderstorms appear to
be Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pres over the region today and moving over the waters
tonight, relatively tranquil conds are expected and no headlines are
anticipated.

OUTLOOK...

Monday through Thursday... Winds and seas should remain below SCA
criteria. There is a chance for thunderstorm to impact the waters on
Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and night.

RIP CURRENTS...
Based on the report from our coastal observer and looking at beach
cams, the surf looks a little rougher than expected. Therefore we
are going to upgrade to a moderate risk of rip currents for the
remainder of today.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Nierenberg/Robertson
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg/Robertson
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg/Robertson




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261619
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1219 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure was centered over the mid-Atlantic and New England
this morning. The high will move offshore tonight and Monday. Low
will track across northeastern Canada early in the week. The cold
front from this system will slowly progress through the area
Tuesday before moving off the coast by early Wednesday. High
pressure returns later Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front
is expected to approach from the northwest Friday and then move
through sometime next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No big changes today as quiet weather remains in across the area
with high pressure in control. We did raise max temperatures a
degree or two in most areas based on 925 mb temps and latest near
term guidance. Some cirrus will move across the area during the
day, with some cumulus development possible, but it should still
look sunny.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The high pres moves ewd tonight as low pres moves acrs ern Canada.
Its assocd cdfnt will be approaching from the w by the end of the
pd. However, overnight still looks dry and mainly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mean upper pattern across the CONUS through the end of the week
will feature persistent ridging along and west of the Rockies and
troughing centered over the Great Lakes. This setup will keep the
heat over the western U.S., well away from the forecast area over
the next seven days. Temperatures in the northern mid-Atlantic
region are expected to be near normal (generally highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s) for the duration of the long-term period. The
large-scale pattern signals at least a potential for somewhat
unsettled conditions with several chances for precipitation to the
area from Monday afternoon through part of Wednesday and then again
Friday into Saturday. However, the smaller-scale details will
determine exactly how unsettled it will be. However, the appreciable
spread seen in the model guidance (e.g., fropa timing issues and
lack of clarity on the mesoscale) casts some uncertainty on exactly
how unsettled the week will be.

On Monday, shortwave energy rounding the base of the large-scale
trough will move into the upper Midwest. At the surface, this system
will feature a cold front that will be advancing southeastward
across the Great Lakes region as well as a pre-frontal trough that
sharpens along the lee side of the Appalachians. While there are
timing differences between operational models, most of the guidance
shows a band of precipitation ahead of the pre-frontal trough that
arrives in our western zones of eastern PA and far northwest NJ late
in the day Monday. Once again removed any mention of thunder from
the forecast for the daytime on Monday with the mid-level subsidence
inversion providing a cap for convection while our area is
positioned underneath the ridge. There is a slight chance that a
thunderstorm develops Monday night, especially across eastern PA and
the Delmarva, as modest elevated instability arrives in conjunction
with the surface trough.

The 00Z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the timing
of the cold front as it passes through the area Tuesday. Except for
the 00Z NAM, the latest guidance has trended toward a more
progressive solution. Although the front slows down as it approaches
the East Coast on Tuesday as a result of downstream blocking over
the western Atlantic Ocean, it likely will not have the chance to
stall over the area as a weak wave of low pressure that develops
along the front should provide a push offshore once the low moves
northeast of the area Tuesday night. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front during peak heating
Tuesday afternoon and then continue into Tuesday night. The threat
of heavy rain is trended lower with the front no longer expected to
stall over the area.

On Wednesday, we expect precipitation to end and skies to clear from
west to east behind the front. Dry conditions continues through
Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the Midwest and
settles overhead.

The longwave trough sharpens over central Canada-Great Lakes region
late in the week as more shortwave energy digs around the back-
side of the trough. Chances for showers and storms increase Friday
afternoon and Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions continue across the TAF sites today and tonight.
Some cirrus will move across the area during the day, with some
cumulus development possible, but it should still look sunny.

A S to SW wind will increase durg the day but will remain under
10 kts. After sunset wind will decrease to under 5 kts once again.

OUTLOOK...

Monday through Tuesday night...Temporary/local MVFR or IFR
restrictions possible with scattered showers and storms. Showers
look to arrive into our western terminals late Monday afternoon and
I-95 terminals Monday night. Best chance for thunderstorms appear to
be Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pres over the region today and moving over the waters
tonight, relatively tranquil conds are expected and no headlines are
anticipated.

OUTLOOK...

Monday through Thursday... Winds and seas should remain below SCA
criteria. There is a chance for thunderstorm to impact the waters on
Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and night.

RIP CURRENTS...
Based on the report from our coastal observer and looking at beach
cams, the surf looks a little rougher than expected. Therefore we
are going to upgrade to a moderate risk of rip currents for the
remainder of today.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Nierenberg/Robertson
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg/Robertson
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg/Robertson




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261401
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1001 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure was centered over the mid-Atlantic and New England
this morning. The high will move offshore tonight and Monday. Low
will track across northeastern Canada early in the week. The cold
front from this system will slowly progress through the area
Tuesday before moving off the coast by early Wednesday. High
pressure returns later Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front
is expected to approach from the northwest Friday and then move
through sometime next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No big changes today as quiet weather remains in across the area
with high pressure in control. We did raise max temperatures a
degree or two in most areas based on 925 mb temps and latest near
term guidance. Some cirrus will move across the area during the
day, with some cumulus development possible, but it should still
look sunny.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The high pres moves ewd tonight as low pres moves acrs ern Canada.
Its assocd cdfnt will be approaching from the w by the end of the
pd. However, overnight still looks dry and mainly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mean upper pattern across the CONUS through the end of the week
will feature persistent ridging along and west of the Rockies and
troughing centered over the Great Lakes. This setup will keep the
heat over the western U.S., well away from the forecast area over
the next seven days. Temperatures in the northern mid-Atlantic
region are expected to be near normal (generally highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s) for the duration of the long-term period. The
large-scale pattern signals at least a potential for somewhat
unsettled conditions with several chances for precipitation to the
area from Monday afternoon through part of Wednesday and then again
Friday into Saturday. However, the smaller-scale details will
determine exactly how unsettled it will be. However, the appreciable
spread seen in the model guidance (e.g., fropa timing issues and
lack of clarity on the mesoscale) casts some uncertainty on exactly
how unsettled the week will be.

On Monday, shortwave energy rounding the base of the large-scale
trough will move into the upper Midwest. At the surface, this system
will feature a cold front that will be advancing southeastward
across the Great Lakes region as well as a pre-frontal trough that
sharpens along the lee side of the Appalachians. While there are
timing differences between operational models, most of the guidance
shows a band of precipitation ahead of the pre-frontal trough that
arrives in our western zones of eastern PA and far northwest NJ late
in the day Monday. Once again removed any mention of thunder from
the forecast for the daytime on Monday with the mid-level subsidence
inversion providing a cap for convection while our area is
positioned underneath the ridge. There is a slight chance that a
thunderstorm develops Monday night, especially across eastern PA and
the Delmarva, as modest elevated instability arrives in conjunction
with the surface trough.

The 00Z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the timing
of the cold front as it passes through the area Tuesday. Except for
the 00Z NAM, the latest guidance has trended toward a more
progressive solution. Although the front slows down as it approaches
the East Coast on Tuesday as a result of downstream blocking over
the western Atlantic Ocean, it likely will not have the chance to
stall over the area as a weak wave of low pressure that develops
along the front should provide a push offshore once the low moves
northeast of the area Tuesday night. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front during peak heating
Tuesday afternoon and then continue into Tuesday night. The threat
of heavy rain is trended lower with the front no longer expected to
stall over the area.

On Wednesday, we expect precipitation to end and skies to clear from
west to east behind the front. Dry conditions continues through
Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the Midwest and
settles overhead.

The longwave trough sharpens over central Canada-Great Lakes region
late in the week as more shortwave energy digs around the back-
side of the trough. Chances for showers and storms increase Friday
afternoon and Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions continue across the TAF sites today and tonight.
Some cirrus will move across the area during the day, with some
cumulus development possible, but it should still look sunny.

A S to SW wind will increase durg the day but will remain under
10 kts. After sunset wind will decrease to under 5 kts once again.

OUTLOOK...

Monday through Tuesday night...Temporary/local MVFR or IFR
restrictions possible with scattered showers and storms. Showers
look to arrive into our western terminals late Monday afternoon and
I-95 terminals Monday night. Best chance for thunderstorms appear to
be Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pres over the region today and moving over the waters
tonight, relatively tranquil conds are expected and no headlines are
anticipated.

OUTLOOK...

Monday through Thursday... Winds and seas should remain below SCA
criteria. There is a chance for thunderstorm to impact the waters on
Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and night.

RIP CURRENTS...
Light southerly winds will continue across the waters through
Sunday. We are expecting a low risk for rip currents today.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Nierenberg/Robertson
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg/Robertson
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260816
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
416 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure was centered over the mid-Atlantic and New England
this morning. The high will move offshore tonight and Monday. Low
will track across northeastern Canada early in the week. The cold
front from this system will slowly progress through the area
Tuesday before moving off the coast by early Wednesday. High
pressure returns later Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front
is expected to approach from the northwest Friday and then move
through sometime next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pres will remain over the region today before sliding ewd.
Expect another pleasant day over the area.  Temps will be similar to
ydy though with a sly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The high pres moves ewd tonight as low pres moves acrs ern Canada.
Its assocd cdfnt will be approaching from the w by the end of the
pd. However, overnight still looks dry and mainly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mean upper pattern across the CONUS through the end of the week
will feature persistent ridging along and west of the Rockies and
troughing centered over the Great Lakes. This setup will keep the
heat over the western U.S., well away from the forecast area over
the next seven days. Temperatures in the northern mid-Atlantic
region are expected to be near normal (generally highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s) for the duration of the long-term period. The
large-scale pattern signals at least a potential for somewhat
unsettled conditions with several chances for precipitation to the
area from Monday afternoon through part of Wednesday and then again
Friday into Saturday. However, the smaller-scale details will
determine exactly how unsettled it will be. However, the appreciable
spread seen in the model guidance (e.g., fropa timing issues and
lack of clarity on the mesoscale) casts some uncertainty on exactly
how unsettled the week will be.

On Monday, shortwave energy rounding the base of the large-scale
trough will move into the upper Midwest. At the surface, this system
will feature a cold front that will be advancing southeastward
across the Great Lakes region as well as a pre-frontal trough that
sharpens along the lee side of the Appalachians. While there are
timing differences between operational models, most of the guidance
shows a band of precipitation ahead of the pre-frontal trough that
arrives in our western zones of eastern PA and far northwest NJ late
in the day Monday. Once again removed any mention of thunder from
the forecast for the daytime on Monday with the mid-level subsidence
inversion providing a cap for convection while our area is
positioned underneath the ridge. There is a slight chance that a
thunderstorm develops Monday night, especially across eastern PA and
the Delmarva, as modest elevated instability arrives in conjunction
with the surface trough.

The 00Z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the timing
of the cold front as it passes through the area Tuesday. Except for
the 00Z NAM, the latest guidance has trended toward a more
progressive solution. Although the front slows down as it approaches
the East Coast on Tuesday as a result of downstream blocking over
the western Atlantic Ocean, it likely will not have the chance to
stall over the area as a weak wave of low pressure that develops
along the front should provide a push offshore once the low moves
northeast of the area Tuesday night. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front during peak heating
Tuesday afternoon and then continue into Tuesday night. The threat
of heavy rain is trended lower with the front no longer expected to
stall over the area.

On Wednesday, we expect precipitation to end and skies to clear from
west to east behind the front. Dry conditions continues through
Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the Midwest and
settles overhead.

The longwave trough sharpens over central Canada-Great Lakes region
late in the week as more shortwave energy digs around the back-
side of the trough. Chances for showers and storms increase Friday
afternoon and Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd.  There cud be some patchy
fog in a few locations erly this AM which has yet to materialize
(which would cause MVFR), but otherwise no problems are anticipated.

A S to SW wind will increase durg the day but will remain under
10 kts. After sunset wind will decrease to under 5 kts once again.

OUTLOOK...

Monday through Tuesday night...Temporary/local MVFR or IFR
restrictions possible with scattered showers and storms. Showers
look to arrive into our western terminals late Monday afternoon and
I-95 terminals Monday night. Best chance for thunderstorms appear to
be Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pres over the region today and moving over the waters
tonight, relatively tranquil conds are expected and no headlines are
anticipated.

OUTLOOK...

Monday through Thursday... Winds and seas should remain below SCA
criteria. There is a chance for thunderstorm to impact the waters on
Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and night.

RIP CURRENTS...
Light southerly winds will continue across the waters through
Sunday. We are expecting a low risk for rip currents today.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Nierenberg
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260148
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the area through Sunday. A low
pressure system will move across Canada early next week. It will
cause a weakening cold front to cross the area Tuesday. The front
will stall across the area through Wednesday. More high pressure
will build over the area late next week. Another disturbance will
approach the area early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface High pressure remains across the region this evening.
Skies have cleared out and winds have really started to lighten
up so far this evening. These conditions will continue through the
night.

Lows will drop into the 50`s outside of the Philadelphia area, as
temperatures quickly fall this evening. The Pine Barrens, Lehigh
Valley and portions of North- Central New Jersey will likely see
low temperatures fall a few degrees below what guidance sets such
as the MET and MAV indicate based on the radiational cooling.

Winds will remain light with the high pressure system over us,
and as RH values increase overnight some patchy fog may form
briefly just before sunrise but burn off rather quickly once the
sun comes up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The high pressure system will continue building east and out of the
region by days end. As a result, winds will increase by the
afternoon from a more southerly direction around 10 mph at times.
Similar to today, modeled two meter temperatures and various
guidance sets such as the MET and MAV will likely be to low with
temperatures given the modeled boundary layer temperatures and dry
conditions across northern portions of our region. The Lehigh Valley
looks to be warmest, near 90 once again with the locations near the
shore in the 70`s and 80`s.   No precipitation is in the forecast
with the high pressure system nearby.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair weather will continue over the area Sunday night and into
Monday. The upper ridge will be weakening over the area and sfc high
pressure will be moving offshore. It will be a mild evening and warm
day Monday with temperatures above normal. A couple tstms may
develop across PA and affect the most n/w areas Mon afternoon. We
just have some small pops over the srn Poconos.

A period of wet weather is expected Mon night thru Wed morning. A
weakening cold front will slide across the area Tue and then stall
across the area Tue night and Wed. This front will serve to focus
showers and sct tstms across these areas. We will mention the
possibility of some heavy rain in the HWO for Tue and Tue night.
Temperatures for this period will be mostly near normal with the
abundant clouds expected.

For Wed night into Thu...High pressure will begin to make it`s way
back over the area. We will have mostly dry or slgt chc pops for
these periods. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the
low/mid 80s over the area.

Another h5 trough will move out of Canada late next week. A cold
front will move towards the area at that time. Scattered showers
and tstms will develop ahead of this feature. We will have chc pops
in the fcst for these periods.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight: Mainly VFR conditions across the terminals. Winds will
remain calm to light. Potential for some patchy ground fog to
create brief MVFR vsby restrictions between 06-10z at KRDG and
KMIV.

Sunday: VFR conditions expected. Light winds will continue through
mid-morning, then pick up out of the south at around 10 knots or
less.

Outlook...
Sun night and Mon...VFR. A few tstms possible far n/w Mon afternoon.
Mon night thru Wed...Scattered showers and tstms with lower
  conditions possible.
Wed night thru Thu night...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Waveheights have struggled today to reach the four to feet
forecasted by wavewatch on previous cycles. Seas are currently
around three feet and will remain around that level through the
night with east-southeasterly winds around or under 10 knots. No
headlines.

Sunday: Similar to tonight, seas are expected to be around three
feet through the day with winds from the southeast at around 10
knots. No headlines.

Outlook...
We are looking at a period of mostly sub-sca conditions on the
waters this upcoming week. There will be two periods of showers and
tstms which will affect local winds/seas. The first period is Mon
night thru Wed and the other is Friday and into early next weekend.
Seas on the ocean will be mostly 2 to 4 ft thru the period.


RIP CURRENTS...
Light southerly winds will continue across the waters through
Sunday. We have issued a low risk for rip currents on Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Meola
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gaines/Meola/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/Meola/O`Hara




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