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000
FXUS61 KPHI 231939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT.

WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME
GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

WHILE RH`S WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WINDS AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE ARE WELL WITHIN NEEDED
CRITERIA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.

MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT
IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW. ALL THREE CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S)
SHOULD BE MET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE THE LOWER DELMARVA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...KRUZDLO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT.

WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME
GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

WHILE RH`S WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WINDS AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE ARE WELL WITHIN NEEDED
CRITERIA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.

MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT
IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW. ALL THREE CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S)
SHOULD BE MET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE THE LOWER DELMARVA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...KRUZDLO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TEMP GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TODAY
SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH
WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED
WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TEMP GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TODAY
SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH
WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED
WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230123
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOSTLY
FALLEN APART. THERE ARE STILL TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS, ONE ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE POCONOS THAT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION A BIT LATER AS THE MAIN FRONT
ARRIVES. BASED ON OBS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT
RAN THE COLD FRONT, SO THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND
ONSET OF PRECIP FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WE
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE AFTN TO EVENING
HOURS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATER TODAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTN/EVE AS GFS/NAM AND EURO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, BUT AFTN MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, MAINLY HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SMALLER CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST
WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND
23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER
FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO
.25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH
WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 44009
SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET, AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
SEAS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SCA
FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z AND CARRY INTO WED
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED
THE FCST AS FROM BEFORE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS AND SMALLER
CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR
REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO .25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG ACROSS KMIV BEFORE DAWN..SO WE HAVE LEFT THE TEMP GROUP IN
FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. THESE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z
AND CARRY INTO WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED
THE FCST AS FROM BEFORE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS AND SMALLER
CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR
REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO .25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG ACROSS KMIV BEFORE DAWN..SO WE HAVE LEFT THE TEMP GROUP IN
FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. THESE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z
AND CARRY INTO WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIME-FRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SCA FLAG AS OF MIDNIGHT. SEAS AT 44009
CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT AS OF 11 PM...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW THAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL DROP THE SCA FLAG AND CONCENTRATE ON
THE TIMING FOR THE NEXT SCA FLAG LATER TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE/PO
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIME-FRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SCA FLAG AS OF MIDNIGHT. SEAS AT 44009
CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT AS OF 11 PM...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW THAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL DROP THE SCA FLAG AND CONCENTRATE ON
THE TIMING FOR THE NEXT SCA FLAG LATER TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE/PO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
930 PM UPDATE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 5 FT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS
STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WHICH EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM
MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE
DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS
EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
930 PM UPDATE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 5 FT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS
STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WHICH EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM
MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE
DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS
EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






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