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000
FXUS61 KPHI 240450
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1250 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The low offshore will begin to lift northeast away from our
region tomorrow. In the wake of that low, a ridge will build over
our region Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will slowly shift
east through the remainder of the week. A few small troughs around
the edge of the high will keep unsettled summer like conditions
for through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Scattered showers continue to circulate around the upper low which
is east of New Jersey. We will continue with high chc/low likely
pops for the overnight hours.

Mid-level debris clouds from early convection around the backside
of the low will limit the extent of fog development overnight.
There is still a potential for some patchy fog, particularly in
areas where it rained.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The upper low makes it way away from the eastern seaboard on
Tuesday. The surface low will also make its final push off to the
east of the area. Some energy rotating through the flow will help to
spark some showers on Tuesday, possibly an isolated thunderstorms as
well. We should start to dry out from southwest to northeast as we
head through the afternoon and into the evening.

Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs into the 70s
through much of the region. Areas along the coast may remain closer
to the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. If the
departing upper level low is slower to lift away from the region
than expected, the ridge may flatten a bit as the axis approaches
our region. The few models that are depicting this pattern are
showing showers across the Poconos and NW NJ late Wednesday as the
ridge weakens. For now have kept Wednesday and Wednesday night dry
as even if the ridge weakens slightly, there should be
considerable synoptic scale subsidence over our region. Once the
ridge axis shifts east of our region by late Thursday, we`ll be
close enough to the periphery of the ridge that we could begin to
see primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
initially confined to the NW portions of our region. Of more
certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable warming
trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both days.

Friday through Monday...There continues to be poor model agreement
and run to run consistency through this period, primarily as it
relates to a backdoor cold front in the region Friday or Saturday.
Most model solutions keep this front north of the region, but a
few models and ensemble members bring it as far south as our
region. If this scenario is correct, persistent onshore flow could
result in temperatures well below normal especially Saturday and
Sunday, and generally light and steady precip through much of the
period. For now though, have not included this in the forecast, it
seems an unlikely pattern for late May that a cold front would be
able to push this far south under an upper level ridge. Even with
models and ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the
region, should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mainly VFR thru 06Z except locally MVFR in showers. Patchy fog
could develop before daybreak Tuesday, especially at terminals
where it rained. However, BKN to OVC mid-level clouds will limit
the extent of fog formation though. Therefore, kept restrictions
mainly in MVFR between 06z-12z. IFR vsby restrictions possible in
some of the more rural spots that received a wetting rainfall
today.

Tuesday...mainly VFR conditions are expected across the region. Any
fog should clear between 12-14z. Another round of scattered showers
is possible and even a few thunderstorms may occur. All activity
will decrease as we head towards the late afternoon/evening. Winds
will turn to the west for Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with
showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft flag for hazardous seas was dropped. Seas at 44009
continue to slowly diminish. Scattered showers will continue
overnight. More concentrated activity across the northern NJ
Coastal waters. Seas on the ocean 3-4 ft overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

RIP CURRENTS...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Delaware Beaches
through this evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Klein/Po
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Klein
Marine...Johnson/Klein/Po




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231945
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The low offshore will begin to lift northeast away from our
region tomorrow. In the wake of that low, a ridge will build over
our region Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will slowly shift
east through the remainder of the week. A few small troughs around
the edge of the high will keep unsettled summer like conditions
for through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The surface is located to the southeast of the area and will make
its way north and then east through tonight. The upper level low is
located just off the Carolina coast and gradually pushing eastward.
As the upper low pushes east, it will help to move the surface low
away from our area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region
this afternoon. As we head into this evening, these showers will
weaken and dissipate from west to east. The cumulus will start to
dissipate as we lose prime surface heating but cirrus will continue
to push in from the east. While skies may start to clear, we
anticipate that there will still be decent cloud cover overnight.

In areas where we see rain this evening, we may start to see some
fog development overnight as winds will go light and variable. If
the clouds clear more than expected, fog may become more
widespread across the region.

Temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s across the region
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The upper low makes it way away from the eastern seaboard on
Tuesday. The surface low will also make its final push off to the
east of the area. Some energy rotating through the flow will help to
spark some showers on Tuesday, possibly an isolated thunderstorms as
well. We should start to dry out from southwest to northeast as we
head through the afternoon and into the evening.

Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs into the 70s
through much of the region. Areas along the coast may remain closer
to the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. If the
departing upper level low is slower to lift away from the region
than expected, the ridge may flatten a bit as the axis approaches
our region. The few models that are depicting this pattern are
showing showers across the Poconos and NW NJ late Wednesday as the
ridge weakens. For now have kept Wednesday and Wednesday night dry
as even if the ridge weakens slightly, there should be
considerable synoptic scale subsidence over our region. Once the
ridge axis shifts east of our region by late Thursday, we`ll be
close enough to the periphery of the ridge that we could begin to
see primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
initially confined to the NW portions of our region. Of more
certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable warming
trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both days.

Friday through Monday...There continues to be poor model agreement
and run to run consistency through this period, primarily as it
relates to a backdoor cold front in the region Friday or Saturday.
Most model solutions keep this front north of the region, but a
few models and ensemble members bring it as far south as our
region. If this scenario is correct, persistent onshore flow could
result in temperatures well below normal especially Saturday and
Sunday, and generally light and steady precip through much of the
period. For now though, have not included this in the forecast, it
seems an unlikely pattern for late May that a cold front would be
able to push this far south under an upper level ridge. Even with
models and ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the
region, should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...Showers are popping up across the region this
afternoon with some isolated thunderstorms affecting the terminals.
As we head into tonight, the showers and thunderstorms are expected
to dissipate from west to east.

Winds will become light overnight and skies may even start to clear.
Should clearing occur, some fog will be possible especially in areas
where low level moisture has increased due to precipitation. We have
included some 4-6sm fog in the taf during the overnight/early
morning hours.

Tuesday...mainly VFR conditions are expected across the region. Any
fog should clear between 12-14z. Another round of scattered showers
is possible and even a few thunderstorms may occur. All activity
will decrease as we head towards the late afternoon/evening. Winds
will turn to the west for Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with
showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes were made to the current Small Craft Advisory this
afternoon. Small craft conditions continue across our southern ocean
waters in response to an offshore surface low. As the low moves
north tonight and then pulls away to the east, seas will start to
subside.

Winds may gust to around 20 knots through this evening before
lightening up overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

RIP CURRENTS...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Delaware Beaches
through this evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231324
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure at the surface offshore and also in the upper
atmosphere will influence our weather today through Tuesday. High
pressure will then ridge across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A weak cold front will move towards the area Wednesday
night. A few weak disturbances will keep unsettled summer like
conditions for Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another unsettled day is expected across our region, however a
warmer day for most is also expected. This unsettled weather is
courtesy of a large upper-level trough in the east, with a closed
low centered to our south that pivots offshore during the course of
the day. This closed low will drive another surface low east of the
North Carolina coast. This surface low will help keep the winds out
of the northeast overall. The forecast challenges today is the
extent of the warming and the coverage/timing of showers and thunder.

Our attention turns to the presence of the upper-level trough.
There continues to be plenty of short wave energy revolving around
it, however there appears to be a convergence area aloft on the
west side of a thermal trough. This promotes lift with even the
hint of a surface trough reflection this afternoon. The model
guidance, including soundings, shows MLCAPE increasing to about
200-500 J/KG this afternoon. Given the colder air aloft with
decent boundary layer heating, some low-topped thunderstorms
should develop. This looks more likely across the interior and
away from the cooler ocean influence. If the amount of instability
is sufficient enough, then small hail cannot be ruled out with a
few stronger cells. The showers/storms will tend to move from
northeast to southwest given the steering flow. These may be
slower moving as well and get some assistance from terrain
circulations. We placed the highest pops (likely) from about I-95
on westward.

As for the high temperatures, we used a GFS/NAM blend then made some
local tweaks. We are expecting many areas to get into the 70s prior
to the showers developing, although it will be cooler along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The center of the closed low is forecast to be slowly shifting to
the northeast off of our coast. This will continue to take a surface
low out to sea. The model guidance indicates that forcing may hang
on for awhile tonight. This would result in showers and some
thunderstorms to start the evening gradually weakening from west to
east. An enhanced area of lift to the northwest side of the closed
mid level center may result in an organizing area of showers across
the eastern area for awhile tonight. As a result, the pops were
increased to likely for a time. Any thunder should be confined to
early in the evening as boundary layer cooling sets in which may be
enhanced by rain-cooled air.

Given the more potential for a period of enhanced lift across
portions of our area in combination of convective cloud debris,
there should be a decent amount of clouds around through the night.
This would limit any fog formation and also slow the cooling trend.
As a result, we used a MOS blend for the low temperatures but then
adjusted them upward a little bit for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last of the influences of the recent upper low across the Middle
Atlantic region and northeast will be affecting our area during
Tuesday. Pops were not changed much from earlier...in the chc range
n/e and slgt chc range s/w. There will still be enough cold air
aloft and sfc moisture to trigger a few showers or perhaps a
isolated tstm across the area. Temperatures will be near normal with
low/mid 70s in most areas.

A period of drier weather and much milder temperatures is slated for
Tuesday night into Wednesday Night. High pressure, rather weak, will
move across the area. Afternoon maximum temperatures Wednesday will
be in the 80s in most areas, except right along the shore and the
highest elevations of the srn Poconos.

A weakening cold front will try to push down from NY/NE later
Thursday, and this could trigger a shower/tstm across the nrn/wrn
parts of our region. Pops will be in the chc range for this
feature.It`s possible that it could wash out and leave us with a
drier day up north. This will be something to monitor over the
next few days. Temperatures again summer-like in the low and mid
80s.Humidity levels Thu-Thu night will begin to increase and  muggy
conditions will be the result.

Our area will remain just near enough to the storm track over the
weekend to keep conditions rather unsettled. We will continue with
slgt chc/small chc pops for mostly the nrn/wrn areas. Conditions
will be summer-like with shower activity not lasting long, but in
tstms they could yield some decent qpf.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly VFR conditions are expected. Some light showers
early this morning have mostly dissipated as they head off to the
southwest of the terminals. Additional showers are then expected
mainly from about midday on, with the greatest chance from KTTN-
KPNE/KPHL- KILG on westward. A few thunderstorms are anticipated
as well but, given low coverage of thunderstorms, it was not
included in the TAF`s. However, a TEMPO group is carried for
showers. Light and variable winds to start, becoming mostly
northeast 4-8 knots then possibly becoming southeast toward
evening.

Tonight...Local restrictions due to showers or a thunderstorm in the
evening, however the showers should be diminishing west to east
through the night. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Light southerly winds
overall, and if enough clearing takes place overnight then local fog
should develop.

Outlook...
Tue...mostly vfr but sct showers with lower cigs/vsbys psbl.
Tue night thru Wed night...vfr. patchy fog psbl both nights.
Thu thru Fri...mostly vfr. sct tstms mostly afternoon and early
evening with restrictions psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions early this morning are rather marginal for a Small
Craft Advisory, as seas are in the 3-5 foot range on the Atlantic
coastal waters. Low pressure offshore should increase the winds some
today especially across the southern waters and this should build
the seas some through the day. Overall the winds should remain below
25 knots, however will just keep the generic Small Craft Advisory
going (extended to 15z up north to 04z southward). The conditions
are expected to remain below advisory criteria on Delaware Bay.

outlook...
sub sca conditions expected thru the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse/Meola
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/Meola/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231021
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
621 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure at the surface offshore and also in the upper
atmosphere will influence our weather today through Tuesday. High
pressure will then ridge across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A weak cold front will move towards the area Wednesday
night. A few weak disturbances will keep unsettled summer like
conditions for Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another unsettled day is expected across our region, however a
warmer day for most is also expected. This unsettled weather is
courtesy of a large upper-level trough in the east, with a closed
low centered to our south that pivots offshore during the course of
the day. This closed low will drive another surface low east of the
North Carolina coast. This surface low will help keep the winds out
of the northeast overall. The forecast challenges today is the
extent of the warming and the coverage/timing of showers and thunder.

The day will start with fog in localized areas as the clouds have
thinned in combination of light/calm winds and a moist low-level
environment. This fog is expected to dissipate quickly early this
morning. Some light showers will occur early this morning mainly
across our south/southeast zones.

Our attention then turns to the presence of the upper-level trough.
There continues to be plenty of short wave energy revolving around
it, however there appears to be a convergence area aloft on the west
side of a thermal trough. This promotes lift with even the hint of a
surface trough reflection this afternoon. The model guidance,
including soundings, shows MLCAPE increasing to about 200-500 J/KG
this afternoon. Given the colder air aloft with decent boundary
layer heating, some low-topped thunderstorms should develop. This
looks more likely across the interior and away from the cooler ocean
influence. If the amount of instability is sufficient enough, then
small hail cannot be ruled out with a few stronger cells. The
showers/storms will tend to move from northeast to southwest given
the steering flow. These may be slower moving as well and get some
assistance from terrain circulations. We placed the highest pops
(likely) from about I-95 on westward.

As for the high temperatures, we used a GFS/NAM blend then made some
local tweaks. We are expecting many areas to get into the 70s prior
to the showers developing, although it will be cooler along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The center of the closed low is forecast to be slowly shifting to
the northeast off of our coast. This will continue to take a surface
low out to sea. The model guidance indicates that forcing may hang
on for awhile tonight. This would result in showers and some
thunderstorms to start the evening gradually weakening from west to
east. An enhanced area of lift to the northwest side of the closed
mid level center may result in an organizing area of showers across
the eastern area for awhile tonight. As a result, the pops were
increased to likely for a time. Any thunder should be confined to
early in the evening as boundary layer cooling sets in which may be
enhanced by rain-cooled air.

Given the more potential for a period of enhanced lift across
portions of our area in combination of convective cloud debris,
there should be a decent amount of clouds around through the night.
This would limit any fog formation and also slow the cooling trend.
As a result, we used a MOS blend for the low temperatures but then
adjusted them upward a little bit for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last of the influences of the recent upper low across the Middle
Atlantic region and northeast will be affecting our area during
Tuesday. Pops were not changed much from earlier...in the chc range
n/e and slgt chc range s/w. There will still be enough cold air
aloft and sfc moisture to trigger a few showers or perhaps a
isolated tstm across the area. Temperatures will be near normal with
low/mid 70s in most areas.

A period of drier weather and much milder temperatures is slated for
Tuesday night into Wednesday Night. High pressure, rather weak, will
move across the area. Afternoon maximum temperatures Wednesday will
be in the 80s in most areas, except right along the shore and the
highest elevations of the srn Poconos.

A weakening cold front will try to push down from NY/NE later
Thursday, and this could trigger a shower/tstm across the nrn/wrn
parts of our region. Pops will be in the chc range for this
feature.It`s possible that it could wash out and leave us with a
drier day up north. This will be something to monitor over the
next few days. Temperatures again summer-like in the low and mid
80s.Humidity levels Thu-Thu night will begin to increase and  muggy
conditions will be the result.

Our area will remain just near enough to the storm track over the
weekend to keep conditions rather unsettled. We will continue with
slgt chc/small chc pops for mostly the nrn/wrn areas. Conditions
will be summer-like with shower activity not lasting long, but in
tstms they could yield some decent qpf.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR/IFR visibility due to fog early for a few terminals,
otherwise VFR. Some light showers early this morning in the
vicinity of KMIV and KACY. Additional showers are then expected
mainly from about midday on, with the greatest chance from KTTN-
KPNE/KPHL- KILG on westward. A few thunderstorms are anticipated
as well. Given low coverage of thunderstorms, it was not included
in the TAF`s, however a TEMPO group is carried for showers. Light
and variable winds to start, becoming mostly northeast 4-8 knots
then possibly becoming southeast toward evening.

Tonight...Local restrictions due to showers or a thunderstorm in the
evening, however the showers should be diminishing west to east
through the night. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Light southerly winds
overall, and if enough clearing takes place overnight then local fog
should develop.

outlook...
Tue...mostly vfr but sct showers with lower cigs/vsbys psbl.
Tue night thru Wed night...vfr. patchy fog psbl both nights.
Thu thru Fri...mostly vfr. sct tstms mostly afternoon and early
   evening with restrictions psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions early this morning are rather marginal for a Small
Craft Advisory, as seas are in the 3-5 foot range on the Atlantic
coastal waters. Low pressure offshore should increase the winds some
today especially across the southern waters and this should build
the seas some through the day. Overall the winds should remain below
25 knots, however will just keep the generic Small Craft Advisory
going (extended to 15z up north to 04z southward). The conditions
are expected to remain below advisory criteria on Delaware Bay.

outlook...
sub sca conditions expected thru the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230742
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure system offshore and also over the upper
atmosphere will influence our weather today through Tuesday. High
pressure will ridge across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. A
weak cold front will move towards the area Wednesday night. A few
weak disturbances will keep unsettled summer like conditions for
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another unsettled day is expected across our region, however a
warmer day for most is also expected. This unsettled weather is
courtesy of a large upper-level trough in the east, with a closed
low centered to our south that pivots offshore during the course of
the day. This closed low will drive another surface low east of the
North Carolina coast. This surface low will help keep the winds out
of the northeast overall. The forecast challenges today is the
extent of the warming and the coverage/timing of showers and thunder.

The day will start with fog in some areas as the clouds have thinned
in combination of light/calm winds and a moist low-level
environment. This fog is expected to dissipate quickly this morning
and not be widespread dense, however locally dense fog has been
reported in a few places. Some light showers will occur early this
morning mainly across our southeastern zones.

Our attention then turns to the presence of the upper-level trough.
There continues to be plenty of short wave energy revolving around
it, however there appears to be a convergence area aloft on the west
side of a thermal trough. This promotes lift with even the hint of a
surface trough reflection this afternoon. The model guidance,
including soundings, shows MLCAPE increasing to about 200-500 J/KG
this afternoon. Given the colder air aloft with decent boundary
layer heating, some low-topped thunderstorms should develop. This
looks more likely across the interior and away from the cooler ocean
influence. If the amount of instability is sufficient enough, then
small hail cannot be ruled out with a few stronger cells. The
showers/storms will tend to move from northeast to southwest given
the steering flow. These may be slower moving as well and get some
assistance from terrain circulations. We placed the highest pops
(likely) from about I-95 on westward.

As for the high temperatures, we used a GFS/NAM blend then made some
local tweaks. We are expecting many areas to get into the 70s prior
to the showers developing, although it will be cooler along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The center of the closed low is forecast to be slowly shifting to
the northeast off of our coast. This will continue to take a surface
low out to sea. The model guidance indicates that forcing may hang
on for awhile tonight. This would result in showers and some
thunderstorms to start the evening gradually weakening from west to
east. An enhanced area of lift to the northwest side of the closed
mid level center may result in an organizing area of showers across
the eastern area for awhile tonight. As a result, the pops were
increased to likely for a time. Any thunder should be confined to
early in the evening as boundary layer cooling sets in which may be
enhanced by rain-cooled air.

Given the more potential for a period of enhanced lift across
portions of our area in combination of convective cloud debris,
there should be a decent amount of clouds around through the night.
This would limit any fog formation and also slow the cooling trend.
As a result, we used a MOS blend for the low temperatures but then
adjusted them upward a little bit for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last of the influences of the recent upper low across the Middle
Atlantic region and northeast will be affecting our area during
Tuesday. Pops were not changed much from earlier...in the chc range
n/e and slgt chc range s/w. There will still be enough cold air
aloft and sfc moisture to trigger a few showers or perhaps a
isolated tstm across the area. Temperatures will be near normal with
low/mid 70s in most areas.

A period of drier weather and much milder temperatures is slated for
Tuesday night into Wednesday Night. High pressure, rather weak, will
move across the area. Afternoon maximum temperatures Wednesday will
be in the 80s in most areas, except right along the shore and the
highest elevations of the srn Poconos.

A weakening cold front will try to push down from NY/NE later
Thursday, and this could trigger a shower/tstm across the nrn/wrn
parts of our region. Pops will be in the chc range for this
feature.It`s possible that it could wash out and leave us with a
drier day up north. This will be something to monitor over the
next few days. Temperatures again summer-like in the low and mid
80s.Humidity levels Thu-Thu night will begin to increase and  muggy
conditions will be the result.

Our area will remain just near enough to the storm track over the
weekend to keep conditions rather unsettled. We will continue with
slgt chc/small chc pops for mostly the nrn/wrn areas. Conditions
will be summer-like with shower activity not lasting long, but in
tstms they could yield some decent qpf.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR/IFR (localized LIFR) visibility due to fog early for
some terminals, otherwise VFR. Showers are expected to develop
mainly from about midday on, with the greatest chance from KTTN-
KPNE/KPHL-KILG on westward. A few thunderstorms are anticipated as
well. Given low coverage of thunderstorms, it was not included in
the TAF`s, however a TEMPO group is carried for showers. Light and
variable winds to start, becoming mostly northeast 4-8 knots then
possibly becoming southeast toward evening.

Tonight...Local restrictions due to showers or a thunderstorm in the
evening, however the showers should be diminishing west to east
through the night. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Light southerly winds
overall, and if enough clearing takes place overnight then local fog
should develop.

outlook...
tue...mostly vfr but sct showers with lower cigs/vsbys psbl.
tue night thru wed night...vfr. patchy fog psbl both nights.
thu thru fri...mostly vfr. sct tstms mostly afternoon and early
   evening with restrictions psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions early this morning are rather marginal for a Small
Craft Advisory, as seas are in the 3-5 foot range on the Atlantic
coastal waters. Low pressure offshore should increase the winds some
today especially across the southern waters and this should build
the seas some through the day. Overall the winds should remain below
25 knots, however will just keep the generic Small Craft Advisory
going (extended to 15z up north to 04z southward). The conditions
are expected to remain below advisory criteria on Delaware Bay.

outlook...
sub sca conditions expected thru the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230147
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
947 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina and
then slowly drift northeast, lingering just offshore of our region
through Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region by mid week. The
ridge will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The mid/upper low affecting the area will continue to sink
southward tonight, but our area will remain on the northern side.
Cool an damp conditions will continue through the night. Showers
will dissipate from north to south overnight, and clouds may begin
to thin from north to south as well through the overnight hours.
Depending on how much thinning of the clouds occurs, some fog
could develop overnight light winds expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will start the day to our southeast and move
northeast toward Cape Cod by nighttime. While the system will be
offshore, daytime heating will result in some instability by the
afternoon hours. This will likely result in another round of
scattered showers forming and even some thunderstorms with CAPE
values of a few hundred J/KG. The highest chances look to be across
Eastern PA where the terrain may help out a little as well.
Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 70`s for the region
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday...the upper level low will linger over the northeastern
U.S. for one more day before lifting further northeast. As such,
should see any lingering showers across the region taper off by
the evening. A modest warming trend is expected going into Tuesday
resulting in temperatures once again near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. However,
unlike previous model runs, the 12z ECMWF and GFS now show the
center of the high much further south. As such, though there
should be a lull in rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances will
increase once again on Thursday, primarily for locations expected
to be west of the ridge axis (Generally E Central PA and NW NJ).
Of more certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable
warming trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both
days.

Friday through Sunday...The GFS has poor run to run consistency
through this period, as it now shows a backdoor cold front
arriving in the region by Friday. If this scenario is correct,
persistent onshore flow could result in temperatures well below
normal especially Saturday and Sunday, and generally light and
steady precip through much of the period. For now though,
have not included this in the forecast, not only due to the poor
run to run consistency, but also because it seems an unlikely
pattern for late May that a cold front would be able to push this
far south under an upper level ridge. Even with models and
ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the region,
should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are currently in place across all TAF sites this
evening, and scattered showers will dissipate from north to south
this evening and overnight. There is the potential for some fog
development overnight into Monday morning if clouds thin out
enough. We`ve introduced some light fog for all TAF sites, with
the thickest potential at RDG. Any fog should lift and dissipate
after sunrise Monday, and a return to VFR is expected. Scattered
showers could again develop during the day Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with showers and fog
especially Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with rain showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA tonight through late tomorrow afternoon on the ocean. While
winds will generally be northeasterly from 10-15 knots, seas will
remaining around five feet through tomorrow afternoon on the ocean
waters. Seas will likely be slower than wavewatch indicates coming
down because of an easterly, onshore flow component in the wind
direction. However, it is still expected that seas fall below five
feet by days end on Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We`ve recalculated the projected monthly temperature based on our
forecast and we`re still holding to a substantial warmup (summerlike
by Friday), lowering the average temperature departure by about 3
degrees from where we were through the 21st...still below normal
for the month at Philadelphia. A backdoor cold frontal intrusion
this weekend as proposed by the GFS would leaves us cooler for the
month, than now expected and projected.

Rainfall through 7 pm today (5.03) has raised Philadelphia`s
month of May ranking to 22nd wettest, dating back to 1872.

Atlantic City`s 4.61 total makes this so far, the 25th wettest
May dating back to 1874.

Corrected por PHl and 7 PM monthly amounts both locations.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines/Robertson
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 222307
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
707 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina and
then slowly drift northeast, lingering just offshore of our region
through Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region by mid week. The
ridge will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A upper low pressure system and an associated low pressure trough
will continue moving southeast into Virgina tonight. scattered
showers are currently located across in the Delmarva and Eastern
PA. However, a gradual decrease is expected as the upper level low
pressure moves south of us overnight. Cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures a degree or warmer than the met/mav guidance in
the low and mid 50`s. Some patchy fog could occur as well around
sunrise with light winds and residual moisture in place. A
hindrance for fog formation will be a mid to high cloud deck which
can prevent the formation of radiational fog around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will start the day to our southeast and move
northeast toward Cape Cod by nighttime. While the system will be
offshore, daytime heating will result in some instability by the
afternoon hours. This will likely result in another round of
scattered showers forming and even some thunderstorms with CAPE
values of a few hundred J/KG. The highest chances look to be across
Eastern PA where the terrain may help out a little as well.
Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 70`s for the region
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday...the upper level low will linger over the northeastern
U.S. for one more day before lifting further northeast. As such,
should see any lingering showers across the region taper off by
the evening. A modest warming trend is expected going into Tuesday
resulting in temperatures once again near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. However,
unlike previous model runs, the 12z ECMWF and GFS now show the
center of the high much further south. As such, though there
should be a lull in rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances will
increase once again on Thursday, primarily for locations expected
to be west of the ridge axis (Generally E Central PA and NW NJ).
Of more certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable
warming trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both
days.

Friday through Sunday...The GFS has poor run to run consistency
through this period, as it now shows a backdoor cold front
arriving in the region by Friday. If this scenario is correct,
persistent onshore flow could result in temperatures well below
normal especially Saturday and Sunday, and generally light and
steady precip through much of the period. For now though,
have not included this in the forecast, not only due to the poor
run to run consistency, but also because it seems an unlikely
pattern for late May that a cold front would be able to push this
far south under an upper level ridge. Even with models and
ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the region,
should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings outside of KMIV and KACY, possible window
from 09-13z Monday for some patchy fog at all sites with lower
ceilings and VSBYS. Highest chances for fog are at KRDG and KMIV.
KMIV and KACY are likely to hang on to IFR/MVFR into the early
evening hours. Lingering showers tonight should slowly decrease in
coverage this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with showers and fog
especially Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with rain showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA tonight through late tomorrow afternoon on the ocean. While
winds will generally be northeasterly from 10-15 knots, seas will
remaining around five feet through tomorrow afternoon on the ocean
waters. Seas will likely be slower than wavewatch indicates coming
down because of an easterly, onshore flow component in the wind
direction. However, it is still expected that seas fall below five
feet by days end on Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We`ve recalculated the projected monthly temperature based on our
forecast and we`re still holding to a substantial warmup (summerlike
by Friday), lowering the average temperature departure by about 3
degrees from where we were through the 21st...still below normal
for the month at Philadelphia. A backdoor cold frontal intrusion
this weekend as proposed by the GFS would leaves us cooler for the
month, than now expected and projected.

Rainfall through 7 pm today (5.03) has raised Philadelphia`s
month of May ranking to 22nd wettest, dating back to 1872.

Atlantic City`s 4.61 total makes this so far, the 25th wettest
May dating back to 1874.

Corrected por PHl and 7 PM monthly amounts both locations.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Climate...707P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 222221
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
621 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina and
then slowly drift northeast, lingering just offshore of our region
through Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region by mid week. The
ridge will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A upper low pressure system and an associated low pressure trough
will continue moving southeast into Virgina tonight. scattered
showers are currently located across in the Delmarva and Eastern
PA. However, a gradual decrease is expected as the upper level low
pressure moves south of us overnight. Cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures a degree or warmer than the met/mav guidance in
the low and mid 50`s. Some patchy fog could occur as well around
sunrise with light winds and residual moisture in place. A
hindrance for fog formation will be a mid to high cloud deck which
can prevent the formation of radiational fog around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will start the day to our southeast and move
northeast toward Cape Cod by nighttime. While the system will be
offshore, daytime heating will result in some instability by the
afternoon hours. This will likely result in another round of
scattered showers forming and even some thunderstorms with CAPE
values of a few hundred J/KG. The highest chances look to be across
Eastern PA where the terrain may help out a little as well.
Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 70`s for the region
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday...the upper level low will linger over the northeastern
U.S. for one more day before lifting further northeast. As such,
should see any lingering showers across the region taper off by
the evening. A modest warming trend is expected going into Tuesday
resulting in temperatures once again near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. However,
unlike previous model runs, the 12z ECMWF and GFS now show the
center of the high much further south. As such, though there
should be a lull in rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances will
increase once again on Thursday, primarily for locations expected
to be west of the ridge axis (Generally E Central PA and NW NJ).
Of more certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable
warming trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both
days.

Friday through Sunday...The GFS has poor run to run consistency
through this period, as it now shows a backdoor cold front
arriving in the region by Friday. If this scenario is correct,
persistent onshore flow could result in temperatures well below
normal especially Saturday and Sunday, and generally light and
steady precip through much of the period. For now though,
have not included this in the forecast, not only due to the poor
run to run consistency, but also because it seems an unlikely
pattern for late May that a cold front would be able to push this
far south under an upper level ridge. Even with models and
ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the region,
should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings outside of KMIV and KACY, possible window
from 09-13z Monday for some patchy fog at all sites with lower
ceilings and VSBYS. Highest chances for fog are at KRDG and KMIV.
KMIV and KACY are likely to hang on to IFR/MVFR into the early
evening hours. Lingering showers tonight should slowly decrease in
coverage this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with showers and fog
especially Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with rain showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA tonight through late tomorrow afternoon on the ocean. While
winds will generally be northeasterly from 10-15 knots, seas will
remaining around five feet through tomorrow afternoon on the ocean
waters. Seas will likely be slower than wavewatch indicates coming
down because of an easterly, onshore flow component in the wind
direction. However, it is still expected that seas fall below five
feet by days end on Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We`ve recalculated the projected monthly temperature based on our
forecast and we`re still holding to a substantial warmup (summerlike
by Friday), lowering the average temperature departure by about 3
degrees from where we were through the 21st...still below normal
for the month at Philadelphia. A backdoor cold frontal intrusion
this weekend as proposed by the GFS would leaves us cooler for the
month, than now expected and projected.

Rainfall through 5 pm today (5.01`) has raised Philadelphia`s
month of May ranking to 22nd wettest, dating back to 1874.

Atlantic City`s 4.81 total makes this so far, the 25th wettest May
dating back to 1874.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Climate...621P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221921
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
321 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina and
then slowly drift northeast, lingering just offshore of our region
through Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region by mid week. The
ridge will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A upper low pressure system and an associated low pressure trough
will continue moving southeast into Virgina tonight. scattered
showers are currently located across in the Delmarva and Eastern
PA. However, a gradual decrease is expected as the upper level low
pressure moves south of us overnight. Cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures a degree or warmer than the met/mav guidance in
the low and mid 50`s. Some patchy fog could occur as well around
sunrise with light winds and residual moisture in place. A
hindrance for fog formation will be a mid to high cloud deck which
can prevent the formation of radiational fog around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will start the day to our southeast and move
northeast toward Cape Cod by nighttime. While the system will be
offshore, daytime heating will result in some instability by the
afternoon hours. This will likely result in another round of
scattered showers forming and even some thunderstorms with CAPE
values of a few hundred J/KG. The highest chances look to be across
Eastern PA where the terrain may help out a little as well.
Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 70`s for the region
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday...the upper level low will linger over the northeastern
U.S. for one more day before lifting further northeast. As such,
should see any lingering showers across the region taper off by
the evening. A modest warming trend is expected going into Tuesday
resulting in temperatures once again near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. However,
unlike previous model runs, the 12z ECMWF and GFS now show the
center of the high much further south. As such, though there
should be a lull in rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances will
increase once again on Thursday, primarily for locations expected
to be west of the ridge axis (Generally E Central PA and NW NJ).
Of more certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable
warming trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both
days.

Friday through Sunday...The GFS has poor run to run consistency
through this period, as it now shows a backdoor cold front
arriving in the region by Friday. If this scenario is correct,
persistent onshore flow could result in temperatures well below
normal especially Saturday and Sunday, and generally light and
steady precip through much of the period. For now though,
have not included this in the forecast, not only due to the poor
run to run consistency, but also because it seems an unlikely
pattern for late May that a cold front would be able to push this
far south under an upper level ridge. Even with models and
ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the region,
should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings outside of KMIV and KACY, possible window
from 09-13z Monday for some patchy fog at all sites with lower
ceilings and VSBYS. Highest chances for fog are at KRDG and KMIV.
KMIV and KACY are likely to hang on to IFR/MVFR into the early
evening hours. Lingering showers tonight should slowly decrease in
coverage this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with showers and fog
especially Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with rain showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA tonight through late tomorrow afternoon on the ocean. While
winds will generally be northeasterly from 10-15 knots, seas will
remaining around five feet through tomorrow afternoon on the ocean
waters. Seas will likely be slower than wavewatch indicates coming
down because of an easterly, onshore flow component in the wind
direction. However, it is still expected that seas fall below five
feet by days end on Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221624
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1224 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well off the New Jersey coast this morning will
continue to track out to sea today. It will be followed by another
low Monday and Monday night. A ridge will build over our region for
Tuesday and Wednesday.  The ridge will remain to the east of the
area into the weekend while a few weak disturbances will affect the
Middle Atlantic region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

The model guidance continues to highlight areas just to our west and
south with the best chance for shower activity during the course of
the afternoon. This is due to the presence of the trough axis and
lower heights along with steepening mid level lapse rates. The
main short wave that will allow the trough to become closed off by
late in the day is forecast to track to our south. As this occurs,
some drying may try to work in from the north. This all spells for
a tricky forecast regarding the details as our western and
southern zones may be very close to the pop gradient. We used a
model blend to try and capture this a bit better, which results in
the highest pops around the edges of the CWA during the day.
Recent radar trends have shown a decrease in shower activity, so
pops have been reduced for the next couple of hours. If enough
breaks in the cloud cover can develop then perhaps additional
shower activity or even some low topped convection can occur.
This looks like a higher chance to our west and south. Therefore
we will continue with no thunder mention.


As for the high temperatures, we have seen a quick rise in
temperatures over the hour or so as breaks in the cloud cover
begin to form across the region. This gives a good portion of
Central NJ and Southeast PA a chance to reach 70. Clouds and
showers across Northern NJ and the Delmarva will keep highs in the
60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The persistent upper-level trough becomes more closed off as the
synoptic pattern is of an omega block. The closed off portion of
this trough is forecast to track to our south tonight. This should
take the bulk of the forcing with it with lingering showers across
the western and then the far southern areas waning during the
evening hours. We are still expecting a decent amount of cloud cover
although the ceilings may rise some from north to south. The extent
of any clearing though will determine if some fog can develop given
the moist ground and light winds. As of now, any fog that may form
overnight looks to be localized and therefore a mention was not
included at this time.

As for the low temperatures, we used mainly a MOS/continuity blend.
The temperatures may be slow to fall especially where cloud cover is
more notable for awhile.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The H5 heights across the east will be at their lowest at the
beginning of the long term with a cut-off low across the VA cape
region. The first sfc low from the near term will have moved off
into the Atlantic while a second low will be deepening well offshore
and moving northward well east of the area. The continuation of low
level moisture and cooler temps aloft will keep the area unsettled
with sct showers and afternoon tstms for mon and into tue. pops are
generally in the chc range. temperatures will be below normal Monday
and close to normal Tuesday. There will likely be more sunshine on
Tue with dryer air beginning to arrive across the area.

The Tue night thru Thu period will be mostly dry with sfc and upper
high pressure affecting the area. We have continued with a small chc
for an afternoon TSTM across the far n/w areas Thu afternoon.
Temperatures will be above normal thru the period with highs
reaching the low 80s in many areas Wed and then low and mid 80s for
Thu. Humidity levels will be mostly comfortable thru the
period...however a trend toward higher dew points will be under way.
It could be muggy across the Delmarva by Thu afternoon.

The mild temperatures will continue for the end of the ween and into
the weekend. Highs will mostly be in the 80s each day except across
the Srn. Poconos and along the shore. Chc for showers and Tstms
exist for both Fri and Sat...although the activity will be sct and
will be more of the typical summer-time variety.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon: VFR with some ceilings becoming broken. Isolated
showers can`t be ruled out. variable winds under 10 knots.

Tonight...VFR ceilings, possibile window from 09-13z Monday for
some patchy fog with lower ceilings and VSBYS, highest chances at
KRDG and KMIV.

Outlook...
Monday thru Tuesday...vfr or mvfr with sct showers/tstms mostly
   during the afternoons. fog possible mon night.
Tue night thru Thu...Mostly vfr. Sct tstms n/w thu afternoon. some
   fog possible during the overnight periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move farther out to sea today,
allowing the pressure gradient to relax. The winds have already
diminished across much of the area already. As the wind diminishes
through the day the direction will become variable across the
waters. The seas however remain elevated across much of the Atlantic
coastal waters, however they continue to be slow in building passed
3 feet across the far north. We will continue the Small Craft
Advisory as is (through at least tonight) mainly for elevated seas.
The conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria on
Delaware Bay through tonight.

RIP CURRENTS...There is a moderate risk of rip currents today.
Northerly winds will be less and also become variable this
afternoon, however a higher swell height into most beaches should
lead to an elevated risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

outlook...The last of the SCA conditions across the srn coastal
waters Monday. near SCA seas possible Tue across the ocean with
the second low out to sea. Mostly sub-sca Tue night-Thu.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221311
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
911 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well off the New Jersey coast this morning will
continue to track out to sea today. It will be followed by another
low Monday and Monday night. A ridge will build over our region for
Tuesday and Wednesday.  The ridge will remain to the east of the
area into the weekend while a few weak disturbances will affect the
Middle Atlantic region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper air analysis placed a trough across the east with its axis
just to our west this morning. Several short waves were analyzed
within this trough and will play the main role in our weather for
today. The forecast challenge is how much can the cloud cover
erode during the course of the day and also shower chances.
Lingering areas of rain early this morning continue to ease off to
the east and gradually weaken as an initial short wave departs.

The model guidance continues to highlight areas just to our west and
south with the best chance for shower activity during the course of
the day. This is due to the presence of the trough axis and lower
heights along with steepening mid level lapse rates. The main short
wave that will allow the trough to become closed off by late in the
day is forecast to track to our south. As this occurs, some drying
may try to work in from the north. This all spells for a tricky
forecast regarding the details as our western and southern zones may
be very close to the pop gradient. We used a model blend to try and
capture this a bit better, which results in the highest pops around
the edges of the CWA during the day. Recent radar trends have
shown some of showers moving eastward toward Philadelphia and the
Delmarva, so at least into the early afternoon we will cary
higher chance pops for these regions as well. If enough breaks in
the cloud cover can develop then perhaps some low topped
convection can occur. This looks more of a chance to our west and
south. Therefore we will continue with no thunder mention.

As low pressure offshore continues to move farther away today, the
pressure gradient will continue to relax. This in combination with
the upper-level trough overhead should result in a decreasing wind
field through much of the column today. This may result in any
showers becoming slow movers with localized downpours possible.
Overall, today looks more showery as we transition from the more
stable and stratiform setup.

As for the high temperatures, we used a MOS blend overall. The
warmer temperatures are across the northern areas where a better
chance of some heating and developing drier conditions may occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The persistent upper-level trough becomes more closed off as the
synoptic pattern is of an omega block. The closed off portion of
this trough is forecast to track to our south tonight. This should
take the bulk of the forcing with it with lingering showers across
the western and then the far southern areas waning during the
evening hours. We are still expecting a decent amount of cloud cover
although the ceilings may rise some from north to south. The extent
of any clearing though will determine if some fog can develop given
the moist ground and light winds. As of now, any fog that may form
overnight looks to be localized and therefore a mention was not
included at this time.

As for the low temperatures, we used mainly a MOS/continuity blend.
The temperatures may be slow to fall especially where cloud cover is
more notable for awhile.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The H5 heights across the east will be at their lowest at the
beginning of the long term with a cut-off low across the VA cape
region. The first sfc low from the near term will have moved off
into the Atlantic while a second low will be deepening well offshore
and moving northward well east of the area. The continuation of low
level moisture and cooler temps aloft will keep the area unsettled
with sct showers and afternoon tstms for mon and into tue. pops are
generally in the chc range. temperatures will be below normal Monday
and close to normal Tuesday. There will likely be more sunshine on
Tue with dryer air beginning to arrive across the area.

The Tue night thru Thu period will be mostly dry with sfc and upper
high pressure affecting the area. We have continued with a small chc
for an afternoon TSTM across the far n/w areas Thu afternoon.
Temperatures will be above normal thru the period with highs
reaching the low 80s in many areas Wed and then low and mid 80s for
Thu. Humidity levels will be mostly comfortable thru the
period...however a trend toward higher dew points will be under way.
It could be muggy across the Delmarva by Thu afternoon.

The mild temperatures will continue for the end of the ween and into
the weekend. Highs will mostly be in the 80s each day except across
the Srn. Poconos and along the shore. Chc for showers and Tstms
exist for both Fri and Sat...although the activity will be sct and
will be more of the typical summer-time variety.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today: Areas of MVFR ceilings this morning should lift to VFR
ceilings this afternoon. Some IFR ceilings early this morning mostly
at KACY/KMIV are expected to improve through midday. Some showers
early this morning will send the local visibility into the MVFR
range, then mainly scattered showers are anticipated through the
afternoon with the best chance west and south of KPHL. Northerly
winds 5-10 knots, becoming light northwest to southwest this
afternoon and even light and variable.

Tonight...VFR ceilings overall. Some showers around mainly in the
evening can locally reduce the visibility for a time, then there is
a chance of local MVFR due to fog late. Winds mostly light and
variable.

Outlook...
Monday thru Tuesday...vfr or mvfr with sct showers/tstms mostly
   during the afternoons. fog possible mon night.
Tue night thru Thu...Mostly vfr. Sct tstms n/w thu afternoon. some
   fog possible during the overnight periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move farther out to sea today,
allowing the pressure gradient to relax. The winds have already
diminished across much of the area already. As the wind diminishes
through the day the direction will become variable across the
waters. The seas however remain elevated across much of the Atlantic
coastal waters, however they continue to be slow in building passed
3 feet across the far north. We will continue the Small Craft
Advisory as is (through at least tonight) mainly for elevated seas.
The conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria on
Delaware Bay through tonight.

RIP CURRENTS...There is a moderate risk of rip currents today.
Northerly winds will be less and also become variable this
afternoon, however a higher swell height into most beaches should
lead to an elevated risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

outlook...The last of the SCA conditions across the srn coastal
waters Monday. near SCA seas possible Tue across the ocean with
the second low out to sea. Mostly sub-sca Tue night-Thu.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




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