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000
FXUS61 KPHI 201456
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER EFFECT OF OCEAN-COOLED AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MARINE AREA AIR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH SUGGESTED HIGHER WAVES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO MARINE UPDATE RAISED SEAS BY 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST RECENT TAF UPDATES SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
CREATED A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER SEAS
IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE, SO SEAS WERE INCREASED IN
THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH
HIGHEST SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES, WHERE WAVES MAY
APPROACH 9 FEET.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY FOR SOME MARINE ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA/SZATKOWSKI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201456
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER EFFECT OF OCEAN-COOLED AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MARINE AREA AIR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH SUGGESTED HIGHER WAVES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO MARINE UPDATE RAISED SEAS BY 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST RECENT TAF UPDATES SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
CREATED A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER SEAS
IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE, SO SEAS WERE INCREASED IN
THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH
HIGHEST SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES, WHERE WAVES MAY
APPROACH 9 FEET.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY FOR SOME MARINE ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA/SZATKOWSKI







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL
TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY
(SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330
CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL
TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY
(SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330
CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL
TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY
(SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330
CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL
TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY
(SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330
CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200137
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT REMAINS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE, HOWEVER THE PRESENT OF A UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PULL A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. AS A RESULT, THE SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED SOME MORE FROM PREVIOUSLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
DEPARTS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. PRIOR TO THIS, MANY AREAS ARE
DECOUPLING HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOME LATE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING THE ONSHORE FLOW TO RESPOND.
DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
THEREFORE ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR FROST TO OCCUR FOR MOST
PLACES. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE FRONT THOUGH THAT MOVED FAIRLY FAR
INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING INCREASED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALL IMPACT THE LOW TEMPERATURES. WHILE A TOUCH OF
FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, IT APPEARS THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MORE SHELTERED AREAS, ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN
DECLARED STARTED AND ALSO WHERE THERE IS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, NO MENTION INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH SOME BLENDING IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. THERE IS A MORE
NOTABLE DEW POINT GRADIENT CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, THEREFORE THE DEW POINTS WERE
ADJUSTED AS WELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR, HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS GRADUALLY THINNING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATE. LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN LOCALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL 4-5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200137
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT REMAINS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE, HOWEVER THE PRESENT OF A UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PULL A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. AS A RESULT, THE SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED SOME MORE FROM PREVIOUSLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
DEPARTS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. PRIOR TO THIS, MANY AREAS ARE
DECOUPLING HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOME LATE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING THE ONSHORE FLOW TO RESPOND.
DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
THEREFORE ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR FROST TO OCCUR FOR MOST
PLACES. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE FRONT THOUGH THAT MOVED FAIRLY FAR
INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING INCREASED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALL IMPACT THE LOW TEMPERATURES. WHILE A TOUCH OF
FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, IT APPEARS THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MORE SHELTERED AREAS, ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN
DECLARED STARTED AND ALSO WHERE THERE IS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, NO MENTION INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH SOME BLENDING IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. THERE IS A MORE
NOTABLE DEW POINT GRADIENT CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, THEREFORE THE DEW POINTS WERE
ADJUSTED AS WELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR, HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS GRADUALLY THINNING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATE. LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN LOCALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL 4-5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI





000
FXUS61 KPHI 192315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
715 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING AND SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DEPARTS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT COULD BE A CHALLENGE AS WE HAVE
CONFLICTING FORCES. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. THE PREDICTED SPEEDS ARE
CLOSE TO THE 50/50 THRESHOLD OF SURFACE MIXING. OUR CONCLUSION WAS
TO GIVE THE GRADIENT SOME DUE EAST OF I-95 WHERE OUR LOWS ARE
PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLIER AND THEN OVERALL HIGHER THAN STAT
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND THE FALL LINE, THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING INVERSION MIGHT BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WE WENT CLOSER
TO STAT GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR
FROST TO OCCUR ANYWHERE. THE MORE LIKELY PLACES ARE LOCALES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED STARTED, SO NO MENTION IN
THE GRIDS/ZONES OR HEADLINES.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER DEW POINTS
SO FAR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF I-95. THE SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED SOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE CIRRUS
IS MUCH THICKER. FARTHER NORTH, THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN TRENDING TO THIN
OUT. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO MARCH
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE TURNED THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KMIV AND KACY, OTHERWISE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN LOCALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL AT 5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI





000
FXUS61 KPHI 192315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
715 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING AND SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DEPARTS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT COULD BE A CHALLENGE AS WE HAVE
CONFLICTING FORCES. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. THE PREDICTED SPEEDS ARE
CLOSE TO THE 50/50 THRESHOLD OF SURFACE MIXING. OUR CONCLUSION WAS
TO GIVE THE GRADIENT SOME DUE EAST OF I-95 WHERE OUR LOWS ARE
PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLIER AND THEN OVERALL HIGHER THAN STAT
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND THE FALL LINE, THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING INVERSION MIGHT BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WE WENT CLOSER
TO STAT GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR
FROST TO OCCUR ANYWHERE. THE MORE LIKELY PLACES ARE LOCALES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED STARTED, SO NO MENTION IN
THE GRIDS/ZONES OR HEADLINES.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER DEW POINTS
SO FAR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF I-95. THE SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED SOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE CIRRUS
IS MUCH THICKER. FARTHER NORTH, THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN TRENDING TO THIN
OUT. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO MARCH
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE TURNED THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KMIV AND KACY, OTHERWISE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN LOCALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL AT 5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB
BETTER AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT THE SAME AT 500MB OFF THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS. BUT ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO GIVE CONFLICTING GUIDANCE.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM ARE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AS WE HAVE CONFLICTING FORCES. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE. THE PREDICTED SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO THE 50/50 THRESHOLD OF
SURFACE MIXING. OUR CONCLUSION WAS TO GIVE THE GRADIENT SOME DUE
EAST OF I95 WHERE OUR MINS ARE PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLIER AND THEN
OVERALL HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE. NW OF I95 AND THE FALL LINE THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING INVERSION MIGHT BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WE
WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW ITS GOING TO
BE TOUGH FOR FROST TO OCCUR ANYWHERE. THE MORE LIKELY PLACES ARE
LOCALES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED STARTED, SO
NO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES OR HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV
NEXT PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT HAS FORMED. IT JUST WENT THROUGH KACY AND IS
NEARING KMJX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A
KBLM-KNEL- HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU
KENT AND SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT
THOSE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR TWO
HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL AT 5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT,

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB
BETTER AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT THE SAME AT 500MB OFF THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS. BUT ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO GIVE CONFLICTING GUIDANCE.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM ARE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AS WE HAVE CONFLICTING FORCES. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE. THE PREDICTED SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO THE 50/50 THRESHOLD OF
SURFACE MIXING. OUR CONCLUSION WAS TO GIVE THE GRADIENT SOME DUE
EAST OF I95 WHERE OUR MINS ARE PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLIER AND THEN
OVERALL HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE. NW OF I95 AND THE FALL LINE THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING INVERSION MIGHT BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WE
WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW ITS GOING TO
BE TOUGH FOR FROST TO OCCUR ANYWHERE. THE MORE LIKELY PLACES ARE
LOCALES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED STARTED, SO
NO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES OR HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV
NEXT PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT HAS FORMED. IT JUST WENT THROUGH KACY AND IS
NEARING KMJX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A
KBLM-KNEL- HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU
KENT AND SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT
THOSE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR TWO
HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL AT 5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT,

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191605
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191605
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHER MAX TEMPS TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE CAA OFFSETTING
OUR MORNING START, SO WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN ADJUSTMENT. THE
CIRRUS OUTSIDE OUR DOOR IS RATHER THIN, LOOKS WORSE ON IR SATL
THAN IT IS. WE LOWERED SKY COVER. BIGGEST CHANGE BASED ON THE
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA BREEZE IN SERN NJ
AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF
THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY
HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHER MAX TEMPS TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE CAA OFFSETTING
OUR MORNING START, SO WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN ADJUSTMENT. THE
CIRRUS OUTSIDE OUR DOOR IS RATHER THIN, LOOKS WORSE ON IR SATL
THAN IT IS. WE LOWERED SKY COVER. BIGGEST CHANGE BASED ON THE
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA BREEZE IN SERN NJ
AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF
THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY
HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHER MAX TEMPS TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE CAA OFFSETTING
OUR MORNING START, SO WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN ADJUSTMENT. THE
CIRRUS OUTSIDE OUR DOOR IS RATHER THIN, LOOKS WORSE ON IR SATL
THAN IT IS. WE LOWERED SKY COVER. BIGGEST CHANGE BASED ON THE
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA BREEZE IN SERN NJ
AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF
THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY
HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190122
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE. THE FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, CUTTING THROUGH WESTERN PA UP TO
SYRACUSE, NY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT, IT IS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. THUS, DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190122
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE. THE FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, CUTTING THROUGH WESTERN PA UP TO
SYRACUSE, NY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT, IT IS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. THUS, DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 182334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
734 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 182334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
734 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 181858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS
LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SEA BREEZE FRONT NOT APPARENT ON OUR 88D. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IT
TO FORM AS IT SHOULD MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT
OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS
LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SEA BREEZE FRONT NOT APPARENT ON OUR 88D. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IT
TO FORM AS IT SHOULD MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT
OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS
LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SEA BREEZE FRONT NOT APPARENT ON OUR 88D. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IT
TO FORM AS IT SHOULD MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT
OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS
LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SEA BREEZE FRONT NOT APPARENT ON OUR 88D. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IT
TO FORM AS IT SHOULD MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT
OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181710
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT AS A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED. WE ARE LOSING THE
STRATOCU CIG AND THE CIRRUS OVERALL LOOKS THINNER. WE LOWERED THE
SKY COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS NOT CHANGED MUCH, WE CONTINUE TO BACK END
THEM TOWARD THE END OF AFTERNOON.

TODAY...FCST BASIS IS MOSTLY NAM 3RLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMP DURING THE
DAY AND THE HIGHER OF THE NCEP 3 HRLY MOS DEWPOINTS. 50 50 BLENDED
SFC SUSTAINED WINDS.

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD DURING MID AND LATE AFTN. E WIND GUST
NEAR 15 MPH WITH THE WIND BECOMING S-SE LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS
NEAR 5 PM THIS AFTN IN THE INTERIOR AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
DURING THE AFTN AND TEMPS MAY RISE 5 DEGREES BETWEEN 2P AND 5P
VCNTY PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...FCST BASIS IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLDER OF THE LOW TEMPS NEAR 10Z/SAT.

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH CFP SCT-BKN SC NEAR 4000
FT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. LIGHT SE-S WIND DURING THE EVENING TURN W
OR NW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
OUR AREA.

THIS HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY WHEN THICKNESSES AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST.

THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS COULD EASILY GUST 25-30 MPH, IF NOT HIGHER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT KACY AND COASTAL
AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING. ALL
OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS
LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF NJ AS
WELL AS NEAR DELAWARE BAY. BUT, THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION LOOKS TO
MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT
OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 7 FT AT 44009 AT 5 AM.

GFS WW4 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW BY A FOOT OR 2 ON THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SO RAISED THAT GUIDANCE THRU THIS FRIDAY EVENING.

SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS AND HAVE CONVERTED
THAT SCA HEADLINE TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HERE AT THE 3 AM ISSUANCE.

DE BAY WATERS NO HEADLINE THRU TONIGHT. E-NE WIND G 15 KT AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FT TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE
WIND TURN S TOWARD SUNSET THEN SHIFTS TO W OR NW TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED, THOUGH
WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SEAS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 181710
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
110 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT AS A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED. WE ARE LOSING THE
STRATOCU CIG AND THE CIRRUS OVERALL LOOKS THINNER. WE LOWERED THE
SKY COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS NOT CHANGED MUCH, WE CONTINUE TO BACK END
THEM TOWARD THE END OF AFTERNOON.

TODAY...FCST BASIS IS MOSTLY NAM 3RLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMP DURING THE
DAY AND THE HIGHER OF THE NCEP 3 HRLY MOS DEWPOINTS. 50 50 BLENDED
SFC SUSTAINED WINDS.

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD DURING MID AND LATE AFTN. E WIND GUST
NEAR 15 MPH WITH THE WIND BECOMING S-SE LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS
NEAR 5 PM THIS AFTN IN THE INTERIOR AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
DURING THE AFTN AND TEMPS MAY RISE 5 DEGREES BETWEEN 2P AND 5P
VCNTY PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...FCST BASIS IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLDER OF THE LOW TEMPS NEAR 10Z/SAT.

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH CFP SCT-BKN SC NEAR 4000
FT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. LIGHT SE-S WIND DURING THE EVENING TURN W
OR NW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
OUR AREA.

THIS HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY WHEN THICKNESSES AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST.

THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS COULD EASILY GUST 25-30 MPH, IF NOT HIGHER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT KACY AND COASTAL
AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING. ALL
OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS
LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF NJ AS
WELL AS NEAR DELAWARE BAY. BUT, THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION LOOKS TO
MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT
OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 7 FT AT 44009 AT 5 AM.

GFS WW4 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW BY A FOOT OR 2 ON THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SO RAISED THAT GUIDANCE THRU THIS FRIDAY EVENING.

SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS AND HAVE CONVERTED
THAT SCA HEADLINE TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HERE AT THE 3 AM ISSUANCE.

DE BAY WATERS NO HEADLINE THRU TONIGHT. E-NE WIND G 15 KT AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FT TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE
WIND TURN S TOWARD SUNSET THEN SHIFTS TO W OR NW TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED, THOUGH
WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SEAS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON






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