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000
FXUS61 KPHI 302006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 THRU 8 PM THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT THRU
3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REFORM AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
LOWER CEILINGS, SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE -SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MOVING THRU THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRECEDE A WARM FRONT INVOF DE BAY
ATTM. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL IN RESPONSE TO
S/WV TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THE WM FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THRU THE DAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY`S
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. APPROACHING S/WV WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT...AS
BEST FORCING OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN
ALOFT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS INSTABILITY...AS LAPSE RATES ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME CAPPING. SAT TRENDS
ALSO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE ML CAPE MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING 1 KJ.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BULK SHEAR IS 40 KNOTS NW OF
I-95 ALONG W/ AMPLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY...AS 0-1 KM SHEAR REACHES
20 KNOTS. SO THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL TODAY MAINLY NW OF I-95...ESP
THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...W/ THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FAVORABLE WBZ
HEIGHTS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...
WHERE A SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN MAINLY
NW OF I-95...WHERE CELLS WILL HAVE A TENDANCY TO TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOME AREAS DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BULK SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB
INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER DOWNWARD, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED
BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE
ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION
OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND
CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE
FASTER RESULTS AND GOING MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY
PREDICT MUCH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND COULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. THERE IS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST DAY
IN THE MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING
THEIR ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE
A HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41
INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE -SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MOVING THRU THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRECEDE A WARM FRONT INVOF DE BAY
ATTM. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL IN RESPONSE TO
S/WV TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THE WM FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THRU THE DAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY`S
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. APPROACHING S/WV WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT...AS
BEST FORCING OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN
ALOFT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS INSTABILITY...AS LAPSE RATES ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME CAPPING. SAT TRENDS
ALSO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE ML CAPE MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING 1 KJ.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BULK SHEAR IS 40 KNOTS NW OF
I-95 ALONG W/ AMPLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY...AS 0-1 KM SHEAR REACHES
20 KNOTS. SO THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL TODAY MAINLY NW OF I-95...ESP
THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...W/ THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FAVORABLE WBZ
HEIGHTS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...
WHERE A SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN MAINLY
NW OF I-95...WHERE CELLS WILL HAVE A TENDANCY TO TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOME AREAS DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BULK SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB
INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER DOWNWARD, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED
BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE
ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION
OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND
CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE
FASTER RESULTS AND GOING MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY
PREDICT MUCH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND COULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. THERE IS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST DAY
IN THE MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING
THEIR ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE
A HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41
INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...FRANCK




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300749
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE PASSING TO OUR WEST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY, BUT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND LI`S AROUND
-2. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30-35 KNOTS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT WITH RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS, SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PW VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR
OVER THE SAME AREA.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOME AREAS DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BULK SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB
INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER DOWNWARD, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED
BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE
ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION
OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND
CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE
FASTER RESULTS AND GOING MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY
PREDICT MUCH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND COULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. THERE IS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300749
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE PASSING TO OUR WEST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY, BUT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND LI`S AROUND
-2. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30-35 KNOTS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT WITH RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS, SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PW VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR
OVER THE SAME AREA.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOME AREAS DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BULK SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB
INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER DOWNWARD, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED
BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE
ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION
OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND
CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE
FASTER RESULTS AND GOING MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY
PREDICT MUCH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND COULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. THERE IS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300749
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE PASSING TO OUR WEST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY, BUT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND LI`S AROUND
-2. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30-35 KNOTS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT WITH RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS, SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PW VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR
OVER THE SAME AREA.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOME AREAS DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BULK SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB
INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER DOWNWARD, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED
BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE
ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION
OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND
CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE
FASTER RESULTS AND GOING MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY
PREDICT MUCH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND COULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. THERE IS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300749
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE PASSING TO OUR WEST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY, BUT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND LI`S AROUND
-2. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30-35 KNOTS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT WITH RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS, SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PW VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR
OVER THE SAME AREA.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOME AREAS DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BULK SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB
INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER DOWNWARD, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED
BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE
ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION
OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND
CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE
FASTER RESULTS AND GOING MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY
PREDICT MUCH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND COULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. THERE IS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SMALL GLIDE SLOPE CHANGES
APPLIED IN THE 630 PM UPDATE. TEMPS FALLING STEADILY UNDER CLEAR
SKY LIGHT WIND RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 9 PM. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30. MONROE COUNTY MIGHT
SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AROUND 10 PM BUT ITS POSSIBLE THIS RADAR
RETURN IS VIRGA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SMALL GLIDE SLOPE CHANGES
APPLIED IN THE 630 PM UPDATE. TEMPS FALLING STEADILY UNDER CLEAR
SKY LIGHT WIND RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 9 PM. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30. MONROE COUNTY MIGHT
SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AROUND 10 PM BUT ITS POSSIBLE THIS RADAR
RETURN IS VIRGA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SMALL GLIDE SLOPE CHANGES
APPLIED IN THE 630 PM UPDATE. TEMPS FALLING STEADILY UNDER CLEAR
SKY LIGHT WIND RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 9 PM. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30. MONROE COUNTY MIGHT
SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AROUND 10 PM BUT ITS POSSIBLE THIS RADAR
RETURN IS VIRGA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SMALL GLIDE SLOPE CHANGES
APPLIED IN THE 630 PM UPDATE. TEMPS FALLING STEADILY UNDER CLEAR
SKY LIGHT WIND RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 9 PM. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30. MONROE COUNTY MIGHT
SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AROUND 10 PM BUT ITS POSSIBLE THIS RADAR
RETURN IS VIRGA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SMALL GLIDE SLOPE CHANGES
APPLIED IN THE 630 PM UPDATE. TEMPS FALLING STEADILY UNDER CLEAR
SKY LIGHT WIND RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 9 PM. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30. MONROE COUNTY MIGHT
SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AROUND 10 PM BUT ITS POSSIBLE THIS RADAR
RETURN IS VIRGA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF ADJUSTED TEMPS HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THEN DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z/30. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  904
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 904
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 904
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF ADJUSTED TEMPS HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THEN DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z/30. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  904
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 904
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 904
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF ADJUSTED TEMPS HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THEN DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z/30. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  904
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 904
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 904
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF ADJUSTED TEMPS HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THEN DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z/30. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  904
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 904
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 904
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF ADJUSTED TEMPS HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THEN DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z/30. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  904
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 904
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 904
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF ADJUSTED TEMPS HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THEN DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z/30. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

HWO: ADDED STRONG TSTM THREAT TO THE DELMARVA AND S NJ WHERE THE
RECENT MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ITS CONCENTRATING GREATER
AND DEEPER INSTABILITY VIA KI/TT/SWI AND MLCAPE PROJECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/01.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN.
SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE DELMARVA
WHERE THEY SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS 30-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK DE BUT MDT RISK NJ. USED 3 FT 8 SEC AND A SE
WIND 12 KT. LOCAL AP GAVE LOW RISK EVERYWHERE BUT WITH FULL MOON
JULY 1, RAISED THE RISK JUST INTO THE MDT RANGE FOR NJ.

TIDE WILL BE TURNING AROUND AND COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
THAT MAY LOWER THE RISK SLIGHTLY?.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT SSTS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE UPWELLING PRESENT...VERY
UNIFORM SST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE DELAYED TIL AROUND 5P OR AFTER.

SAFEST SWIMMING IS TO BE FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
JETTY, PIER AND GROYNE (GROIN) SWIMMING IS RISKY AND FRAUGHT WITH
GREATER DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH RECURRENT RIP CURRENTS THERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  904
SHORT TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 904
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 904
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300015
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
815 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF ADJUSTED TEMPS HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THEN DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z/30. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE
ERIE...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J
AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR
POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY
INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTN. SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE
DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

WILL UPDATE PROJECTION FOR TUESDAY BY 9P.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/DRAG 815
NEAR TERM...DRAG/FRANCK 815
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON 815
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON 815
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300015
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
815 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF ADJUSTED TEMPS HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THEN DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY LIGHT WIND LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE LEVELING WITH THE APPROACHING MID DECK CLOUD LAYER NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z/30. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID DECK CLOUD COVER IN E PA AFTER 08Z/30.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE
ERIE...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE NEAR 1000J
AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR
POTENTIAL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE PARTLY SUNNY
INSTEAD OF MO CLOUDY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM TSTMS WOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FALLING WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT HELICITY INVOF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL...IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR THEN CIGS AOA 7000 FT INVADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. LIGHT SW TO S WIND. PLEASE SEE TAF FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY...SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S WIND GUST 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTN. SCT SHOWERS E PA DURING THE MORNING THEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND ROLL NEWD TUE AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS KRDG TO THE
DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

WILL UPDATE PROJECTION FOR TUESDAY BY 9P.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/DRAG 815
NEAR TERM...DRAG/FRANCK 815
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON 815
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON 815
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING GRT LAKES TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESP NORTHWEST OF I-95
WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE. 12Z/29 MODEL RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON -SHRA OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...AS BEST
LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRES JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS SCALED BACK ON POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE POCONOS TOWARD DAWN. THE WIND GRADUALLY BACK
FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH
MIN TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GRT LKS TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE OF 1.5 KJ AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND
FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
HELICITY INVOF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONGIHT...WITH A CHC OF
-SHRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING GRT LAKES TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESP NORTHWEST OF I-95
WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE. 12Z/29 MODEL RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON -SHRA OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...AS BEST
LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRES JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS SCALED BACK ON POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE POCONOS TOWARD DAWN. THE WIND GRADUALLY BACK
FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH
MIN TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GRT LKS TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE OF 1.5 KJ AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND
FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
HELICITY INVOF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONGIHT...WITH A CHC OF
-SHRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING GRT LAKES TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESP NORTHWEST OF I-95
WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE. 12Z/29 MODEL RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON -SHRA OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...AS BEST
LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRES JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS SCALED BACK ON POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE POCONOS TOWARD DAWN. THE WIND GRADUALLY BACK
FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH
MIN TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GRT LKS TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE OF 1.5 KJ AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND
FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
HELICITY INVOF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONGIHT...WITH A CHC OF
-SHRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING GRT LAKES TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESP NORTHWEST OF I-95
WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE. 12Z/29 MODEL RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON -SHRA OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...AS BEST
LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRES JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS SCALED BACK ON POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE POCONOS TOWARD DAWN. THE WIND GRADUALLY BACK
FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH
MIN TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY SHAPING UP TOMORROW AS S/WV ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
GRT LKS TROUGH LEADS TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE ERIE...AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THRU REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY NW OF I-95...WHERE ML CAPE OF 1.5 KJ AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COINCIDE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVR
ERN PA AND NRN NJ...WHICH MAY LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...W/ INVERTED-V PROFILES AND
FALLING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
HELICITY INVOF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
SUPERCELL...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WE HAVE CURRENTLY TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE VORT MAX IN THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER OUR REGION, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN.
OTHERWISE, MODEST CAPE VALUES FOR ELEVATED PARCELS (AT LAYERS
ABOVE 900 MB) AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT, COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS AWAY,
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT OVER THE REGION, KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BY
LATE IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE EITHER WEDNESDAY EVENING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, THUS GIVING OUR REGION ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER, STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS TREND WILL HOLD GIVEN A FLATTENING TROUGH.

SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ONE FRONT, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS,
BUT AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY RAIN.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WE COULD EVEN HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER OUR REGION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONGIHT...WITH A CHC OF
-SHRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291400
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER NORTHERN NJ AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA THRU THE DAY...WHILE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO PRECIP EXPECTED W/VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT AND AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE, BUT OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN AREAS, SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE SHORT WAVE NOT TO HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL; A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN GRADUALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
RIDGING OVER THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UP INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LESSEN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH BASES AROUND
4,000-5,000 FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
AS CHANCES ARE SMALL.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. SOME GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, FOG
AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM. THE SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINE THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291400
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER NORTHERN NJ AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA THRU THE DAY...WHILE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO PRECIP EXPECTED W/VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT AND AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE, BUT OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN AREAS, SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE SHORT WAVE NOT TO HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL; A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN GRADUALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
RIDGING OVER THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UP INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LESSEN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH BASES AROUND
4,000-5,000 FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
AS CHANCES ARE SMALL.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. SOME GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, FOG
AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM. THE SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINE THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA TODAY, MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL, A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW, OR
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE, BUT OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN AREAS, SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE SHORT WAVE NOT TO HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL; A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN GRADUALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
RIDGING OVER THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UP INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LESSEN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH BASES AROUND
4,000-5,000 FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
AS CHANCES ARE SMALL.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. SOME GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, FOG
AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS
ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE, AND THE SEAS ON
THE OCEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WELL. ONCE CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA TODAY, MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL, A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW, OR
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE, BUT OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN AREAS, SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE SHORT WAVE NOT TO HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL; A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN GRADUALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
RIDGING OVER THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UP INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LESSEN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH BASES AROUND
4,000-5,000 FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
AS CHANCES ARE SMALL.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. SOME GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, FOG
AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS
ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE, AND THE SEAS ON
THE OCEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WELL. ONCE CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA TODAY, MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL, A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW, OR
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE, BUT OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN AREAS, SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE SHORT WAVE NOT TO HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL; A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN GRADUALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
RIDGING OVER THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UP INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LESSEN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH BASES AROUND
4,000-5,000 FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
AS CHANCES ARE SMALL.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. SOME GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, FOG
AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS
ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE, AND THE SEAS ON
THE OCEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WELL. ONCE CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA TODAY, MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL, A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW, OR
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE, BUT OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN AREAS, SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE SHORT WAVE NOT TO HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL; A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN GRADUALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
RIDGING OVER THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UP INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LESSEN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH BASES AROUND
4,000-5,000 FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
AS CHANCES ARE SMALL.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. SOME GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, FOG
AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS
ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE, AND THE SEAS ON
THE OCEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WELL. ONCE CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1203 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS AND NRN NJ. WINDS WILL BE WRLY AROUND 10 MPH AND THEN
BECOME SWRLY LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND NEAR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE BETTER LIFT AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY TUESDAY FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHERE WE
HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE OT LOW LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THERE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTH, MOST LIKELY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THURSDAY, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN YIELD SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH,
IT DOES LOOK THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND WE HAVE SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DURING
THE TIMEFRAME, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MODERATE WRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WILL NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASING CI/CS CLOUDS
EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS MONDAY...WRLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE.
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE-DAY TO EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY AS
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT BRANDYWINE SHOAL AND
CAPE MAY THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

WITH BUOY 009 STILL AT 5 FEET...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT FOR
OUR OCEAN WATERS. WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS IN AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.

WEDNESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OBSERVER REPORTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW
INFORMATION WHEN THE UPDATE IS ISSUED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN 1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECOED IN BOTH
WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH,
CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR ALL-TIME
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY
AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA/O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1203 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS AND NRN NJ. WINDS WILL BE WRLY AROUND 10 MPH AND THEN
BECOME SWRLY LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND NEAR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE BETTER LIFT AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY TUESDAY FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHERE WE
HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE OT LOW LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THERE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTH, MOST LIKELY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THURSDAY, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN YIELD SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH,
IT DOES LOOK THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND WE HAVE SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DURING
THE TIMEFRAME, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MODERATE WRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WILL NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASING CI/CS CLOUDS
EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS MONDAY...WRLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE.
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE-DAY TO EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY AS
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT BRANDYWINE SHOAL AND
CAPE MAY THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

WITH BUOY 009 STILL AT 5 FEET...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT FOR
OUR OCEAN WATERS. WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS IN AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.

WEDNESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OBSERVER REPORTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW
INFORMATION WHEN THE UPDATE IS ISSUED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN 1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECOED IN BOTH
WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH,
CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR ALL-TIME
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY
AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA/O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS AND NRN NJ. WINDS WILL BE WRLY AROUND 10 MPH AND THEN
BECOME SWRLY LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND NEAR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE BETTER LIFT AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY TUESDAY FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHERE WE
HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE OT LOW LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THERE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTH, MOST LIKELY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THURSDAY, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN YIELD SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH,
IT DOES LOOK THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND WE HAVE SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DURING
THE TIMEFRAME, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MODERATE WRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WILL NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASING CI/CS CLOUDS
EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS MONDAY...WRLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE.
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE-DAY TO EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH BUOY 009 STILL AT 5 FEET...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT FOR
OUR OCEAN WATERS. WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS IN AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.

WEDNESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OBSERVER REPORTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW
INFORMATION WHEN THE UPDATE IS ISSUED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN 1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECOED IN BOTH
WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH,
CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR ALL-TIME
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY
AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA/O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA
CLIMATE...FRANCK




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS AND NRN NJ. WINDS WILL BE WRLY AROUND 10 MPH AND THEN
BECOME SWRLY LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND NEAR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE BETTER LIFT AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY TUESDAY FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHERE WE
HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE OT LOW LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THERE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTH, MOST LIKELY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THURSDAY, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN YIELD SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH,
IT DOES LOOK THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND WE HAVE SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DURING
THE TIMEFRAME, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MODERATE WRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WILL NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASING CI/CS CLOUDS
EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS MONDAY...WRLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE.
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE-DAY TO EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH BUOY 009 STILL AT 5 FEET...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT FOR
OUR OCEAN WATERS. WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS IN AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.

WEDNESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OBSERVER REPORTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW
INFORMATION WHEN THE UPDATE IS ISSUED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN 1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECOED IN BOTH
WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH,
CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR ALL-TIME
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY
AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA/O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS AND NRN NJ. WINDS WILL BE WRLY AROUND 10 MPH AND THEN
BECOME SWRLY LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND NEAR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE BETTER LIFT AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY TUESDAY FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHERE WE
HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE OT LOW LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THERE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTH, MOST LIKELY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THURSDAY, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN YIELD SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH,
IT DOES LOOK THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND WE HAVE SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DURING
THE TIMEFRAME, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MODERATE WRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WILL NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASING CI/CS CLOUDS
EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS MONDAY...WRLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE.
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE-DAY TO EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH BUOY 009 STILL AT 5 FEET...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT FOR
OUR OCEAN WATERS. WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS IN AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.

WEDNESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OBSERVER REPORTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW
INFORMATION WHEN THE UPDATE IS ISSUED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN 1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECOED IN BOTH
WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH,
CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR ALL-TIME
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY
AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA/O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA
CLIMATE...FRANCK




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